The US dollar was mostly flat against peer currencies on Friday after data showed a less-than-expected increase in inflation in January, suggesting the Federal Reserve could continue to hold rates steady in the near term.

The Japanese yen was set for its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months.

US Labor Department data on Friday showed that the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent last month compared with an estimate of 0.3 percent from economists polled by Reuters.

The euro was 0.02 percent higher at $1.1873 against the dollar, but was set to gain 0.5 percent this week. Against the Swiss franc , the dollar weakened 0.22 percent to 0.76785 and was on course for a weekly loss of 1 percent.

The dollar’s behavior reflects market positioning as it awaits fresh central bank signals on the direction of interest rates, said Olivier Bellemare, senior derivatives trader at Monex Canada in Montreal.

MARKET REACTION IS ‘TIMID’

Earlier this week, data suggested the US labor market was stabilizing with a drop in the US unemployment rate amid strong jobs growth in January and a less-than-expected decrease in the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment.

Despite repeated crackdowns and hefty fines by the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection, dishonest business practices are still running rampant in Chattogram Division.

Over the past four and a half years, 14,054 businesses have been penalised, yet "traders continue to flout the rules and exploit consumers", according to officials.

Between the 2021-22 fiscal year and November 2025-26, authorities collected Tk15.78 crore in fines, with Tk14.90 crore going to the government treasury and Tk11.16 lakh handed directly to complainants under the law.

Alongside traditional market issues, digital platforms have emerged as a new avenue for fraud. Many online shopping complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and webshops, where customers receive substandard goods or nothing at all. Lack of verifiable information often hampers the department's ability to take swift legal action.

Gaps in enforcement and public awareness

At the heart of consumer rights enforcement in Bangladesh is the fight against food adulteration.

Md Foyez Ullah, divisional deputy director of the directorate, told The Business Standard, "We give utmost attention to cases where adulteration is found and take a strict stance against those responsible. We are trying to keep these offences to a minimum."

He noted that adulteration is not always the work of organised syndicates. "It often reflects societal norms and individual mindsets. A chef at a wedding may use fake kewra water, rose water, or artificial colouring without realising the harm. The root cause is a lack of awareness and education among food preparers."

Highlighting the challenge of sustainability, he added, "Even those aware today may slip tomorrow. It's a deep-seated issue of mentality and habit."

Russel Uddin, divisional organiser of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, told TBS, "Government initiatives are insufficient. Laws aren't properly enforced, and limited staff and a lack of awareness campaigns hinder monitoring. Temporary price drives are symbolic. Volunteers help, but lasting change needs strong pressure groups and a louder public voice."

Severe staff and logistical shortages

The directorate faces severe staff and logistical constraints. Nearly 10 million people across Chattogram district's 14 upazilas rely on just one assistant director and one office assistant for market oversight.

The absence of consumer rights offices at the upazila level hampers monitoring, forcing residents from remote areas like Chandanaish or Satkania to travel to district towns to lodge complaints. Officials note that if such offices existed, government directives on essentials like gas cylinders could be enforced simultaneously across all upazilas, preventing traders elsewhere from exploiting gaps.

"Maintaining market stability with such limited staff is extremely difficult," said Md Anisur Rahman, assistant director of the directorate. "Officials endure extreme hardship in the field. Without official vehicles, we're forced to hire transport for inspections, which often delays urgent operations."

Police support remains a major hurdle. Currently, the department relies on local police; however, jurisdictional limits prevent forces from one police station from conducting immediate operations in neighbouring areas. Securing additional force from the police line also takes time.

Someone who is aware today may lose that awareness tomorrow. Still, we continue our efforts. Legal enforcement and some fear have caused many establishments to refrain from offences."

Market oversight and penalties

Data from 2021-22 to November 2025-26 show 6,939 market inspections across 11 districts of Chattogram Division. Rising scams by unscrupulous traders have also made consumers more vigilant. During this period, 9,246 complaints were received, of which 8,565 were resolved.

Under Section 76(4) of the Consumer Rights Protection Act, 2009, 25% of fines arising from proven complaints are paid to complainants immediately, encouraging people to assert their rights.

Alongside traditional market violations, online fraud has emerged as a growing challenge. Many complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and online shops, with customers receiving substandard goods or nothing at all. Investigations often fail to locate these businesses, delaying legal action or compensation.

Fines varied across districts. The divisional office collected TK5.27 crore from 2,670 establishments. District-level collections were: Chattogram Tk2.20 crore (1,206 establishments), Cumilla Tk1.57 crore (1,614), Chandpur Tk1.33 crore (2,103), Noakhali Tk1.19 crore (1,188), Cox's Bazar Tk91.81 lakh (1,469), Brahmanbaria Tk84.33 lakh (1,698), Feni Tk78.33 lakh (836), and Lakshmipur Tk57.84 lakh (775).

Hill tract districts recorded lower fines due to fewer businesses: Khagrachhari Tk18.71 lakh (295), Rangamati Tk11.64 lakh (152), and Bandarban Tk2.17 lakh (48).

Although imports of key Ramadan commodities have increased compared to previous years, prices of several essentials are soaring in local markets. Within a span of one week, date prices have jumped by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg, depending on the variety.

Besides, prices of sugar, chickpeas, lentils, onions, and garlic have increased, adding pressure on consumers.

Traders claimed that the prices hiked due to delayed clearance of goods at ports disrupted by recent strikes, and a surge in demand following the national election, insisting that overall stock levels remain higher than demand.

Key Ramadan items include rice, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas, and dates. According to sources at the Ministry of Commerce, the demand for soybean oil during Ramadan alone stands around 3,00,000 tonnes. Sugar demand is estimated at 3,00,000 tonnes, onions at 5,00,000 tonnes, chickpeas between 1,50,000 and 2,00,000 tonnes, and dates between 60,000 and 80,000 tonnes.

Data from the National Board of Revenue show that in the past four months, Bangladesh imported 225,000 tonnes of onions, 3,70,000 tonnes of sugar, 47,000 tonnes of dates, 2,05,000 tonnes of lentils, nearly 4,00,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil, and 14 lakh tonnes of wheat.

Officials say imports of these products have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. Besides, chickpea imports alone exceeded demand by 28%.

A visit to several major markets in Dhaka, including Karwan Bazar, Chawkbazar, and Moulvibazar, as well as Khatunganj in Chattogram, revealed that date prices have increased by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg within a week.

In December, the government reduced import duty on dates from 25% to 15% with a view to keeping its market stable, but apparently the prices have risen.

Currently, loose dates are selling at Tk220 per kg, Zahidi at Tk260 to Tk280, and Dabbas between Tk550 and Tk570. Wholesale prices for these types have increased by at least Tk40 to Tk60 per kg.

Besides, Boroi dates are selling for Tk480 to Tk500 per kg, Kalmi at Tk700, Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom between Tk850 and Tk1, 200, Maryam between Tk1,100 and Tk1,400, and Medjool between Tk1,200 and Tk1,500.

Arafat Hossain, a wholesale and retail date trader at Karwan Bazar, told The Business Standard that the price of Zahidi dates jumped Tk600 per 10-kg carton almost overnight, while Dabbas rose by Tk400 per carton. Some shipments were stuck at the port, reducing supply temporarily.

Touhidul Alam, general secretary of Chattogram Fruit Traders' Association, said Zahidi dates are currently facing a relative shortage compared to demand, claiming that a recent shipwreck involved a cargo containing dates, contributing to limited availability.

Moreover, some importers had delayed imports in anticipation of reduced duties, which also disrupted supply planning. "Apart from certain varieties, the overall market supply remains normal," he added.

Meanwhile, onion prices have risen by Tk10 per kg, sugar by Tk8 to Tk10, khesari lentils by Tk10, garlic by Tk20, and chickpeas by Tk4 to Tk8 depending on quality. Sugar is currently selling at Tk100 per kg, onions at Tk60, local garlic at Tk120, local lentils at Tk160, and chickpeas at Tk90 to Tk100.

Mohammad Mohiuddin, general secretary of Chaktai-Khatunganj Aratdar General Traders' Welfare Association, said there is no shortage of Ramadan-related products such as chickpeas, peas, and dates.

"Imports of chickpeas have been abundant, and compared to last year, prices are actually lower," he claimed.

Blaming weak monitoring during the recent election period for the price hikes, SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said the administrative transition period created an environment where officials appeared disengaged, allowing unscrupulous traders to increase prices without facing regulatory action. As a result, general consumers are bearing the brunt of the instability.

Following the elections, foot traffic in markets has surged. Retailers say markets were relatively empty in the days leading up to voting, but now shoppers are crowding stores to purchase Ramadan essentials all at once.

At Karwan Bazar, Ahmed Ullah said he regularly buys dates, not just during Ramadan. "The price has increased by Tk60 per kg. I had gone to my village to vote, so today I came to buy everything for Ramadan in one trip."

Mamun Hossain, a grocery shop owner at the kitchen market, observed that prices are relatively stable this year compared to previous seasons. Business was slow for a few days due to the national election.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange rallied sharply today (15 February), the first trading session after the BNP's landslide victory in the 13th national election, with the benchmark index climbing to a five-month high amid a surge in investor participation.

The benchmark DSEX index advanced 200 points, or 3.71%, to close at 5,600, approaching the five-month peak of 5,636 recorded on 8 September 2025. The blue-chip DS30 index gained 86 points to finish at 2,145.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 364 issues advancing, 26 declining and four remaining unchanged.

Trading activity also rebounded strongly. Daily turnover jumped 61% to Tk1,275 crore, nearing the five-month high of Tk1,400 crore recorded on 8 September 2025.

On the other side, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also witnessed a sharp rally. Its general index CSCX jumped 282 points to reach 9,555, while the all-share price index CASPI gained 484 points to close at 15,518. Turnover at the Chattogram bourse jumped 162% to Tk24.65 crore.

The oath-taking of the newly elected members of parliament and the cabinet members of the new government is likely to take place tomorrow.

The Election Commission issued a gazette notification on Friday for the 13th parliamentary election, officially confirming the winners for 297 out of 299 seats where polling had been held.

The BNP secured 209 seats in the 12 February polls while Jamaat-e-Islami secured 68 seats.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the DSE, told TBS that in response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto.

"Investors now want to see the successful implementation of that roadmap," he said.

Emon alleged that during the past 15 to 17 years under what he described as a "fascist government," the capital market was subject to widespread plundering and mismanagement.

"The market was pushed to the brink of destruction," he said, adding that thousands of investors were financially devastated during this period.

He noted that affected investors now have high expectations from the new government. "There are strong hopes and aspirations among affected investors. We want to see the successful implementation of the commitments made toward the stock market," Emon said.

In response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto. Investors now have high expectations from the new government.
Minhaz Mannan Emon, Director, DSE

Asif Khan, chairman of EDGE AMC Limited and president of CFA Society Bangladesh, said that the DSE gained 3.71% following BNP's victory. Historically, DSE returns had a standard deviation of about 0.8% to 1.1%. By that logic, today's increase is a more than 3 standard deviation move.

If financial markets were normally distributed, such a move would only happen about once a year. Financial markets are, however, not normally distributed and tend to have fat tails. Nevertheless, the move is a big one, he added.

In August 2024, right after the interim government took over, the stock market had a similar euphoric phase. Market returns on 6, 7 and 8 August were 3.77%, 3.04% and 5.44% respectively, Asif said. This did not eventually sustain and the market fell below the levels of 5 August. The key lesson is that eventually fundamentals will drive markets, he said.

Nevertheless, events such as elections are important. Uncertainty is the enemy of financial markets and elections give some stability, Asif said. So from that logic, the reaction of the market is not entirely unwarranted. However, after the initial euphoria, it will be the actions that determine the path, he said.

On the positive side, he noted that valuations remain low, interest rates appear to have peaked and money supply growth could resume, driven by external surpluses and a widening fiscal deficit. Pressure on the government to reduce policy rates is also likely to intensify, factors he described as supportive of equities, Asif said.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, said that investors have shown strong confidence in the BNP's election manifesto.

As a result, the market has gathered momentum and the DSE's benchmark index has posted a significant gain, he explained. Abu Ahmed expressed optimism that the upward trend will continue in the coming days.

However, he stressed that sustaining this positive momentum will depend on improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals.

Abu Ahmed said these include rationalising interest rates, accelerating export growth, attracting foreign direct investment, improving the ease of doing business ranking, strengthening the domestic investment climate and addressing structural weaknesses in a timely manner.

Overall macroeconomic stability, he noted, will hinge on how effectively and swiftly these challenges are tackled.

The interim government has identified several fundamentally strong local and multinational companies for potential listing on the stock market, he mentioned.

The ICB chairman added that a committee formed for this purpose is already working on the initiative and has held multiple meetings with the companies concerned.

It is expected that a BNP-led government will take this initiative forward in a more effective manner, he said, adding that without the listing of quality companies, investor participation is unlikely to deepen, nor will it be possible to attract meaningful foreign investment.

Therefore, whoever assumes the role of finance minister must prioritise work in this area, Abu Ahmed said. "From our side, we will remain consistently active as a pressure group to ensure these measures are implemented."

BNP-linked stocks lead the rally

City Bank led the turnover chart as its shares worth Tk80 crore were traded with the price jumping by 8.52% to Tk29.30 on the day. Its two directors, Rubel Aziz and Aziz Al Kaiser, are sons of the late Abul Hashem, a former member of parliament from the BNP.

National Bank surged 9.76% to Tk4.50. The lender is associated with businessman Abdul Awal Mintoo, who won the Feni-3 seat as a BNP candidate in the election.

Mintoo's other listed company, Kay & Que, rose 8.74% to Tk470.50. Pragati Insurance gained 6.16% to Tk81, Pragati Life Insurance rose by 5.13% to Tk243.70, while Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills climbed 4.39% to Tk138.

Dhaka Bank jumped 9.63% to Tk14.8. BNP leader Mirza Abbas, who won from Dhaka-8, is a sponsor shareholder of the bank, and his son serves as a director.

Investors have shown strong confidence in the BNP's election manifesto. As a result, the market has gathered momentum and the DSE's benchmark index has posted a significant gain.
Abu Ahmed, Chairman, ICB

Textile manufacturer Monno Fabrics soared 9.87% to Tk24.5. Its chairman, Afroza Khanom, won from Manikganj as a BNP candidate.

Sister concern Monno Ceramic advanced 9.25% to Tk90.90, while Monno Agro and General Machinery rose 7.35% to Tk397.50.

Other BNP-linked stocks, including ACME Laboratories, Quasem Industries, Saiham Cotton, Saiham Textile and Dacca Dyeing and Manufacturing Company, also posted notable gains during the session.

In contrast, shares of companies perceived to be linked to the Jamaat-e-Islami moved in the opposite direction.

Islami Bank Bangladesh fell 4.99% to Tk49.50, while Ibn Sina Pharmaceutical Industry declined 2.97% to Tk336.

Traders said the election outcome has significantly influenced investor sentiment, with the BNP's sweeping victory boosting buying interest in stocks associated with party leaders and sponsors, while shares tied to rival political affiliations faced selling pressure.

Shares of companies linked to senior BNP figures led a broad-based rally yesterday as the country's capital market surged in the first trading session following the party's decisive victory in the 13th parliamentary election.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange climbed 200 points, with the market closing firmly in positive territory and total turnover reaching Tk1,275 crore. Market data shows that 92.39% of listed securities advanced, while 75 companies and mutual fund units hit their upper circuit limits, reflecting widespread investor optimism.

Analysts attributed the rally to renewed confidence and expectations of policy continuity under the incoming government, with investors positioning themselves in anticipation of a more business-friendly environment.

Kay & Que and National Bank jump

Abdul Awal Mintoo, BNP vice chairman and former FBCCI president, won the Feni-3 constituency. He serves as chairman of Kay & Que (Bangladesh) Limited. The company's share price surged 8.74% to close at Tk470.50 yesterday.

For the 2024-25 fiscal year, Kay & Que declared a 4% cash dividend and a 6% bonus dividend. However, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission did not approve the proposed 6% bonus shares. According to the company's annual report, earnings per share (EPS) rose sharply to Tk9.49 from Tk0.67 in the previous year, primarily due to higher sales revenue.

Mintoo is also chairman of National Bank. Shares of the bank climbed 9.76% yesterday to close at Tk4.50, reflecting increased demand from investors.

Quasem Industries advances

Although Tasvir Ul Islam, managing director and CEO of Quasem Industries Limited, lost the Kurigram-3 seat, the company's shares still gained 6.73%, closing at Tk44.40.

The company announced a 10% bonus dividend for FY25. Its EPS stood at Tk1.04, up from Tk0.42 a year earlier. Net asset value (NAV) per share also improved to Tk29.06, indicating stronger balance sheet fundamentals.

Monno Group shares rally

BNP candidate Afroza Khan Rita secured victory in the Manikganj-3 constituency, triggering a surge in shares of three listed companies under the Monno Group.

Shares of Monno Fabrics Limited jumped 9.87% to Tk24.50. Despite EPS falling to Tk0.04 from Tk0.09 in FY25, the company declared a 0.25% cash dividend for general shareholders.

Monno Ceramic Industries Limited gained 9.25%, closing at Tk90.90. The company announced a 2% cash dividend. Although EPS declined to Tk0.22 from Tk0.39, NAV per share increased to Tk80.14.

Meanwhile, Monno Agro & General Industries Limited rose 7.35% to Tk397.50. It declared a 5% cash dividend, though EPS dropped to Tk1.00 from Tk2.15 in the previous year.

Dhaka Bank and ACME gain

Following the victory of Mirza Abbas Uddin in Dhaka-8, shares of Dhaka Bank climbed 9.63% to Tk14.80. For the July-September quarter, the bank reported EPS of Tk0.24 and consolidated NAV per share of Tk22.94.

Shares of ACME Laboratories, associated with BNP leader Mizanur Rahman Sinha, increased 5.25% to close at Tk80.20. The company declared a 35% cash dividend for FY25. Its EPS stood at Tk11.48, close to Tk11.61 in the previous year, while NAV per share rose to Tk126.37.

Islami Bank and Ibn Sina slip

In contrast, shares of Islami Bank Bangladesh and Ibn Sina Pharmaceutical Industry, considered associated with Jamaat-e-Islami, declined yesterday. Islami Bank Bangladesh shares fell 4.99%, while Ibn Sina shares dropped 2.97%.

Analysts advise caution

Market analysts say it is common to see short-term rallies in companies linked to influential political figures after election results. Investors often anticipate favourable policy decisions, smoother regulatory processes, and a supportive business environment.

However, experts caution that such politically driven price movements are rarely sustainable. Over the long term, company fundamentals, earnings growth, asset quality, and cash flow determine true market value. Investors are advised to avoid making decisions based solely on political developments.

Market observers believe the new government's economic priorities, reforms in the banking and industrial sectors, and overall macroeconomic stability will shape the market's trajectory in the coming months. For now, yesterday's rally appears to reflect immediate investor enthusiasm following the election outcome.

The Finance Division will release Tk2,000 crore to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) within the next few days to help clear outstanding dues to private power producers amid escalating tensions over unpaid bills and disputed liquidated damages (LD).

Outgoing Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan came up with the announcement in Dhaka yesterday.

"Power producers will receive payments very soon," Fouzul said, acknowledging the strain caused by mounting arrears.

The dispute centres on BPDB's decision to calculate and impose liquidated damages for the past 30 months – a move strongly opposed by private producers.

The adviser noted that producers had challenged the decision before the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) but were unsuccessful.

"Power producers went to BERC challenging the decision, but they lost there. BPDB is now working on the issue to determine how to resolve both the LD and the outstanding bills," he said.

BPDB Chairman Md Rezaul Karim confirmed that the state utility has been calculating LDs for the past 30 months. He said outstanding bills would be settled only after the calculations are finalised.

"We will pay the outstanding bills owed to power producers once the LDs are calculated," he said, adding that some claims may not stand scrutiny after adjustments, though certain plants could receive payments following reconciliation.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (BIPPA), however, has warned that prolonged non-payment could force plants to shut down.

At a recent press conference, the association claimed that Tk13,000-14,000 crore in dues to local independent power producers (IPPs) remain unpaid. Including joint-venture plants, total arrears could exceed Tk25,000 crore.

The association warned that if at least 60% of the arrears are not settled immediately, producers may have no option but to shut down their plants.

"We will keep supplying power, but BPDB will not pay us. Who will make such a suicidal decision of spending money to generate electricity when they are not being paid?" said BIPPA President David Hasanat.

Hasanat criticised the retroactive calculation of LDs, calling it "absurd," and said the association has challenged the imposition of LD in the High Court. He alleged that LD rules are being applied in a discriminatory manner, targeting domestic entrepreneurs while foreign and joint-venture producers are treated differently.

Under Clause 13.2(1) of the Power Purchase Agreement, BPDB is required to settle bills within 40 days of submission. BIPPA claims payments are currently delayed by eight to 10 months, severely straining producers' finances.

According to the association, the payment crisis has already caused losses of around Tk8,000 crore due to currency fluctuations and rising borrowing costs. "Our borrowing costs have exploded. Fuel imports, loan servicing, opening LCs – everything," Hasanat said.

Energy analysts have warned that any disruption in oil-fired power generation could worsen electricity shortages, particularly during the peak summer months.

Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said oil-fired plants accounted for 10.73% of total generation on average in the last fiscal year. Between March and May, their contribution rose to between 11.27% and 12.5%.

"If power supply from oil-fired power plants stops due to the dispute over outstanding bills, there will be severe load-shedding in the summer season," Alam warned, noting ongoing dollar shortages and logistical constraints in handling liquefied natural gas.

Last summer, oil-fired plants generated between 3,000MW and 3,500MW in peak months. This year, output could exceed 4,000MW, according to Imran Karim, former president of BIPPA.

"If the government wants to settle the dispute between BPDB and power producers, it should move away from vindictiveness and adopt a rational approach," he said.

Consumer inflation in the United States cooled slightly more than expected in January, government data showed Friday, as energy prices dipped.

Analysts say the figure allows the US central bank to cut interest rates again later this year, but warn that policymakers need to see sustained improvement in order to do so -- despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that there is virtually no inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, the Department of Labor said, down from December’s 2.7 percent and slightly below analysts’ median forecast.

This was the lowest level since May 2025.

Trump lauded the report, telling reporters that inflation was “way down, and we have it back on track.”

Yet, affordability worries have come to the fore in recent months as price increases in areas like food weighed on households, and as Trump’s tariffs flowed through the world’s biggest economy.

Although tariffs have not triggered a broad inflation surge, firms have reported higher business costs. Many companies have tried to soften the blow by stocking up on inventory ahead of planned levy hikes and avoided passing on additional costs in full to consumers.

Late last year, Trump also broadened a slate of tariff exemptions, particularly on agriculture imports, as he came under pressure from voters grappling with soaring costs of living.

For now, CPI was up 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis in January, inching down from December’s 0.3 percent rise.

This was helped by a 1.5 percent month-on-month slide in overall energy costs, in part due to gasoline.

But food costs remained 0.2 percent higher than in December, and were up 2.9 percent from a year ago.

Still, “this is encouraging news for many American families that have been struggling,” said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long in a note.

US consumers in lower income groups have shown reluctance to spend on non-essentials, the Federal Reserve noted last month.

“The tariffs have had a clear impact on products such as furniture and appliances, but the key items in many family budgets are cooling off,” Long said.

“Gas prices, used cars and medical care all declined in January,” she added.

But Diane Swonk of KPMG warned that disruptions from a recent government shutdown are likely suppressing year-over-year inflation measures.

“What’s important is that goods prices still increased,” she told AFP.

Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, core inflation was 2.5 percent, a touch below December’s level.

“Even though consumers have seen, on average, the wages outpace inflation in recent years, it takes a long time to regain ground lost from those compounding price levels,” Swonk said.

Swonk noted that despite various tariff threats since the beginning of the year, the Trump administration’s actions have been “going in the other direction to try to mitigate those effects.”

These should bear fruit towards the back half of the year.

“We’ve still got some more bumps in inflation to endure, which is why the Fed will welcome this news, but they’re not likely to cut on it,” she said of Friday’s data. “They need to see more sustained improvement in inflation to feel comfortable about where we’re going.”

Although overall inflation has cooled, underlying price pressures, coupled with a jobs market that has proven more resilient than expected, could allow the Fed to continue holding interest rates steady for a while.

The US central bank made three rate cuts last year but has been holding off further action, seeking to bring inflation back down to officials’ two-percent target.

Bangladesh's power sector is haemorrhaging billions of dollars each year not because of a single policy failure, but due to a toxic combination of excess capacity, one-sided contracts, heavy import dependence, weak governance and a sharp depreciation of the taka, sector insiders and analysts say.

The National Review Committee (NRC) recently estimated annual losses in the power sector at around $1.5 billion, largely attributing the damage to unfavourable power purchase agreements.

But many energy experts argue that this headline figure oversimplifies a much deeper, long-running structural crisis. Those closely tracking the sector say the losses do not fully reflect historical realities and cannot be understood without examining how policy priorities shifted after 2015.

Until around 2015, Bangladesh struggled with frequent power outages and inadequate generation. Since then, the problem has flipped.
Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

The crisis today is no longer about scarcity but surplus: too much installed capacity, slower-than-expected demand growth and policies that failed to adapt to changing economic realities.

According to an analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), Bangladesh's power sector import dependence rose to about 65% between FY2018-19 and FY2024-25, driven largely by fossil fuel imports.

This import-heavy model has left the sector highly exposed to global price swings and, more importantly, to sharp depreciation of the taka. High system losses in both the power and gas sectors have further worsened the situation, effectively wasting costly imported fuel without delivering usable energy.

Independent observers estimate system loss in the energy sector at around 12-13%, although Petrobangla officially reports losses closer to 7.5%. Even by Petrobangla's own figures, some 2,036 million cubic metres of gas were lost during distribution, costing around Tk37.89 billion at current prices.

Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Fouzul Kabir Khan has acknowledged that the sector's losses are not solely the result of "bad deals."

"The massive loss in the power sector is entwined with many other factors such as waste, fraud and abuse," he said, pointing to governance failures across institutions.

Questions have also been raised about the NRC's calculation of losses linked to power purchase agreements.

Energy expert Prof M Tamim said: "I don't know how the NRC calculated those numbers.

"All deals in the power sector were not done for financial transactions. Some were approved for political favours as well. Deals were made for government-funded public projects too," said M Tamim who oversaw the power and energy ministry when he was a special assistant to the 2007 caretaker government chief.

Along with corruption, poor governance and the depreciation of the taka has created a heavy burden on the public exchequer, he said.

The massive loss in the power sector is entwined with many other factors such as waste, fraud and abuse
Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Fouzul Kabir Khan

Currency depreciation: the silent multiplier

Currency depreciation has emerged as one of the most damaging, yet often overlooked, drivers of the power sector's cost explosion.

Bangladesh's power system is overwhelmingly dollar-dependent: LNG, coal and oil imports, capacity payments to independent power producers (IPPs) and obligations to foreign sponsors are all settled in US dollars.

When the taka began weakening sharply against the dollar from 2020 onward, power production costs soared even without any increase in fuel consumption or global prices.

In 2019, the exchange rate stood at around Tk84 per dollar. By 2025, it had fallen to about Tk123, meaning the dollar appreciated by roughly 46.4%.

In practical terms, every dollar-denominated obligation now costs nearly one-and-a-half times more in local currency than it did six years ago. A $1 billion fuel bill that once required Tk8,400 crore now costs about Tk12,300 crore solely because of exchange rate movements.

Over the same period, the taka lost around 31.7% of its purchasing power, significantly eroding the country's ability to pay for imported energy.

Generation costs surge past tariffs

The impact of depreciation, combined with structural inefficiencies, is starkly visible in generation costs. According to Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) data, the average cost of generating electricity rose from Tk5.95 per unit in FY2018-19 to around Tk12 per unit in 2025 – an increase of about 118.5% in seven years.

This surge far outpaced inflation and tariff adjustments. Analysts point to several drivers, including greater reliance on imported fuels, currency depreciation, rising capacity payments to idle plants and higher financing costs for foreign-funded projects.

Retail tariffs, however, have lagged far behind. While generation costs now stand at around Tk12 per unit, the average retail price is about Tk8.95. The gap of more than Tk3 per unit has led to ballooning subsidies, mounting BPDB losses and persistent payment arrears, with taxpayers and consumers ultimately bearing the cost.

Adviser Fouzul has also blamed mismanagement and corrupt decision-making. "Without properly assessing real demand, generation capacity was increased despite knowing that many plants would remain idle and the government would still have to pay capacity charges. By approving such deals, many people benefited," he said.

System loss: progress, but not enough

Bangladesh has made undeniable progress in reducing system loss, but the gains have not been enough to offset rising costs elsewhere. System loss peaked at 24.5% in 2001, driven by weak grids, theft and poor billing.

By 2008-09, losses in parts of the network had fallen to 6.58%, while overall transmission and distribution losses stood at 14.73% in 2010-11. Reforms accelerated after 2020 through grid upgrades and prepaid metering, bringing average losses below 10% in many areas.

In FY2022-23 and FY2023-24, transmission and distribution losses stabilised at 10.06%. By mid-2024, total system loss had declined further to about 7.25%, a major improvement compared with two decades earlier.

Even so, analysts note that single-digit losses still translate into large financial waste when energy is imported at high dollar prices.

Costly contracts, excess capacity

Shafiqul Alam, lead energy analyst for Bangladesh at IEEFA South Asia, said the country's high reserve margin amid slower-than-expected demand growth has resulted in massive capacity payments. "This has significantly increased the financial burden," he said.

The continued use of expensive oil-based generation and limited success in scaling up renewable energy have further inflated costs. "By reducing oil-based power generation to 5% from 10.73%, supported by solar power, Bangladesh could have reduced the subsidy burden by 23.3%," Alam said.

BPDB's growing dependence on IPPs has also driven up costs. Between FY2023-24 and FY2024-25, BPDB's spending on power purchases from IPPs rose by 25.61%. "For sustainability, Bangladesh must assess future demand more prudently, expand renewable energy, increase BPDB's own generation and limit capacity payments," he added.

Tariff distortions, idle plants

The NRC's tariff review highlights further inefficiencies. Electricity from heavy fuel oil-based plants is priced 40-50% higher than reasonable benchmarks, while gas-based projects are about 45% more expensive due to high fixed charges and inefficient contracts.

Solar power fares even worse, with tariffs estimated to be 70-80% above normal levels, according to the committee.

Within gas-based generation, older plants such as Haripur and Meghnaghat sit at the lower end of the cost curve because their capital costs are largely amortised. Newer Meghnaghat plants, however, carry heavy fixed charges and remain underutilised, sharply raising average system costs.

The NRC has warned that full cost-recovery tariffs would push industrial electricity prices in Bangladesh 80-90% higher than in China, India or Vietnam, posing serious risks of deindustrialisation. According to the committee, between 7,700MW and 9,500MW of installed capacity is either unnecessary or unusable due to fuel and infrastructure constraints.

Under a recent reciprocal trade deal signed with US, Bangladesh will grant duty-free access to 7,132 American products, while 2,500 Bangladeshi products will get the same privilege into the world's largest economy.

Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus disclosed the details in a Facebook post today (15 February), saying that Bangladesh's duty-free list includes a wide range of items such as pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, plastics, timber, and wood-based products. Bangladesh has a total of 7,458 tariff lines.

Under the agreement, all but 326 US products will enjoy duty-free treatment. Prior to the signing of the agreement on 9 February, only 441 US products received duty-free access in Bangladesh.

Of the 7,132 US products, Bangladesh made 4,922 tariff lines effective immediately on the day of signing. The remaining items will see a phased reduction in tariffs.

For 1,538 products, tariffs will be reduced to zero over five years. In the first year, duties will be cut by 50%, with the remaining 50% reduced proportionately over the following four years.

Another 672 products will see tariffs phased out over ten years, with an initial 50% reduction in the first year and the rest gradually eliminated over the subsequent nine years.
US cuts Bangladesh tariff to 19%, no duty on RMG made of US cotton

The chief adviser said that Bangladesh has committed to purchasing certain products from the US that it already imports from other countries. As the US remains the main destination for Bangladesh's RMG exports, the shift in sourcing is aimed at preserving market access without incurring additional costs.

He emphasised that the move involves changing the source of imports rather than increasing overall spending.

According to Yunus, US has signed reciprocal tariff agreements with around 15 countries, including Malaysia, UK, Switzerland, and Bangladesh. Among the publicly available agreements, Bangladesh's "Agreement on BD-US Reciprocal Trade (ART)" shares certain similarities with deals signed with Malaysia and Cambodia.

However, Bangladesh has secured some comparatively favourable terms. For example, in agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, those countries must consult the US before signing any digital trade agreement with a third party. No such provision exists in the finalised draft of the Bangladesh-US ART.

The chief adviser, however, did not mention any clause restricting Bangladesh from entering trade agreements with non-market economies such as China or Russia.

On rules of origin, Yunus noted that the agreement text does not specify a fixed threshold for foreign or domestic value addition. This flexibility is expected to make it easier for Bangladeshi exports to qualify for duty-free benefits.

The deal also creates opportunities for products manufactured using US-origin cotton and man-made fiber textile inputs to receive duty-free market access in the US.
Bangladesh has to raise US defence imports under trade deal. Find out what else the agreement says

Key areas covered under the ART include support for paperless trade, intellectual property rights enforcement, a permanent moratorium on customs duties on e-commerce transmissions, reduction of non-tariff barriers and technical barriers to trade, trade facilitation, conformity assessment certification, good governance measures, and procurement of nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium. Bangladesh has also agreed in principle to accede to nine international IPR-related conventions.

The agreement endorses a permanent moratorium on e-commerce duties and allows the import of US medical devices and pharmaceuticals without prior market authorisation, provided they carry certification from the US Food and Drug Administration.

It also commits Bangladesh not to impose restrictions on remanufactured goods and to recognise US sanitary and phytosanitary measures for food and agricultural imports. US certification will be accepted for dairy, meat, and poultry products.

Provisions also include completing agricultural biotechnology registration processes within specified timelines and recognising related food and agricultural products, provided they do not contain living modified organisms.

Bangladesh will follow international standards for live poultry imports, recognise maximum residue limits, and complete market access procedures for plant and plant products within 24 months.

The deal further calls for liberalising equity caps for US investment in insurance, oil, gas, and telecommunications sectors; enforcing anti-corruption regulations; accepting the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies; refraining from subsidies linked to Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated fishing; and updating Bangladesh's labor laws in line with international labor standards.

In digital trade and technology, the agreement recognises frameworks such as Cross-Border Privacy Rules, Privacy Recognition for Processors, and Personal Data Protection Office standards.

It also includes commitments to safeguard US economic and national security interests and to explore increased imports from the US, including Boeing aircraft, LNG, LPG, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and military equipment.

"Overall, the Agreement on BD-US Reciprocal Trade will help Bangladesh maintain competitiveness in the US market, expand trade globally, attract investment, and deliver economic benefits," Yunus said.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange extended its pre-election rally today (10 February), with the benchmark index surging sharply for the second consecutive session as investors positioned themselves ahead of the national polls, buoyed by improving sentiment on political and economic fronts.

The DSEX advanced 1.65% or 87 points to close at 5,399, taking its two-day gain to nearly 170 points.

The strong rally added around Tk9,800 crore to the market capitalisation, reflecting renewed confidence among both retail and institutional investors.

The blue-chip DS30 index also posted a solid gain, rising 27 points to settle at 2,058.

Trading activity picked up noticeably, with turnover jumping 22% to Tk790 crore, the highest in nearly four months.

Market participants said the rise in volume indicated growing risk appetite as investors rushed to take positions before the market closure for the national election.

Today marked the final trading session ahead of the polls scheduled for 12 February, as the stock market will remain closed on 11 and 12 February following the interim government's declaration of general holidays.

Market observers said while short-term volatility may emerge after trading resumes post-election, the current rally reflects rising expectations of political stability and supportive policy measures, which could help sustain momentum in the near term if followed by concrete reforms.

Market breadth remained strongly positive, with 288 issues advancing against 67 decliners, while 37 stocks remained unchanged, underscoring broad-based participation in the rally.

Analysts attributed the upbeat momentum to a mix of domestic and global factors. The upcoming national election has raised hopes of easing prolonged political uncertainty, encouraging investors to return to equities.

At the same time, a reduction in reciprocal tariffs by the United States to 19% has improved sentiment in export-oriented sectors, particularly readymade garments, as products made with imported US cotton are expected to enjoy zero tariffs.

Analysts said the development was being viewed as a positive signal for Bangladesh's export earnings and overall economic outlook.

Another supportive factor was the modest reduction in the standing deposit facility rate, which analysts believe will discourage banks from parking excess liquidity with the central bank and instead channel funds into the broader financial system, potentially boosting market liquidity and turnover in the coming days.

Investor confidence was further lifted by comments from Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, who said the interim government would consider measures to compensate general shareholders affected by the merger of five Islamic banks, including Sammilito Islami Bank.

Speaking to journalists after a meeting of the Advisory Council Committee on Government Procurement yesterday, he acknowledged that while depositors would be prioritised, the issue of shareholders would be addressed carefully through a technical and step-by-step process.

Sector-wise, banking stocks led the rally, followed by non-bank financial institutions, engineering, food and allied, and pharmaceuticals, as investors accumulated fundamentally strong and momentum-driven scrips.

Several financially distressed NBFIs also witnessed sharp price gains amid heightened speculative interest.

The positive mood spread to the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where both major indices closed sharply higher, mirroring the optimism seen on the Dhaka bourse.

In Bangladesh's largest export market, the European Union (EU), apparel unit prices fell 3.84% in 2025 compared to 2024, amid sluggish European demand and aggressive competition from major exporters like China and India.

Analysts say this surge was partly driven by US tariff barriers, pushing non-US shipments toward Europe.

Eurostat data, analysed by the Bangladesh Apparel Exchange, shows EU apparel imports grew 2.10% to €90 billion last year, driven by a 13.78% rise in volume, while average unit prices dropped 10.27%.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the EU rose to €19.41 billion from €18.32 billion in 2024 – a 6% growth – but unit prices fell 3.84% as volumes outpaced value growth. December alone saw a 12% year-on-year drop in unit prices.

Fazlul Haque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, told The Business Standard, "Demand in Europe has not increased much, while due to higher tariffs in the US, countries like China are exporting less there and pushing more into the European market to offset losses. As a result, prices are falling, and we are also forced to sell at lower prices."

China's apparel exports to the EU rose 1.17% in value to €26.58 billion, despite a 9.38% fall in unit prices. Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said, "Demand has not grown much as some European countries are under economic pressure. At the same time, US tariffs are pushing exporters into Europe, which is affecting prices."

He added that prices may recover slightly in the short term, but over the next two to three years, pressure is likely to return as India and Vietnam gain zero-tariff access under EU free trade agreements. Eurostat shows unit prices fell for almost all major exporters except Vietnam, whose exports rose 10% with a 4.51% unit price increase.

Nearly half of Bangladesh's apparel exports are destined for Europe. In FY2024-25, Bangladesh exported around $40 billion worth of ready-made garments to the global market.

As Ramadan approaches, prices of essential commodities, including fruits, vegetables, and protein items, are increasing in the kitchen markets of the capital, leaving consumers, particularly the low-income group, worried.

People fear that the prices may soar further as Ramadan will begin at the time when the interim government hands over the power to the BNP.

Lemon, one of the main ingredients for iftar to prepare juice, is now selling at what vendors call a "century" rate.

A visit to markets in Lalbagh, New Market, and Azimpur today revealed that the price of large lemons has jumped nearly 50% within a couple of weeks. A hali (four pieces) of large lemons is now selling for Tk110–120, up from Tk70–80 just a fortnight ago. Medium-sized lemons, previously priced at Tk50–60 per hali, have climbed to Tk80.

Explaining the price hike, Lalbagh's vendor Mamun Mia said the low supply due to off-season has hit the market, and only the trees that bear fruit year-round are providing lemons now.

Blaming the recent election-related transport restrictions for the hike, he said supply shrinks, and prices increase when perishable goods do not reach the market on time, insisting that the situation is temporary and prices will stabilise once the main season begins.

Shahida Begum, a homemaker shopping at New Market, said prices fall in other countries when Ramadan begins but it happens the opposite in Bangladesh. If transport runs a little less for two days, traders immediately raise prices.

As winter draws to a close, seasonal vegetables have grown costlier. Papaya has risen from Tk25 to Tk30 per kg. Bitter gourd has surged from Tk120 to Tk160, while okra has jumped from Tk80 to Tk120. Green chilies are selling at Tk120 per kg. Round eggplant stands at Tk80, and cucumbers at Tk60. Long eggplants — essential for preparing beguni, have increased by Tk10 to Tk60 per kg from Tk50.

However, bottle gourd has reduced to Tk60 from Tk50, and tomatoes Tk50 from Tk60. Potatoes remain stable at Tk20 per kg, cauliflower at Tk30, and hyacinth beans between Tk40 and Tk60.

On the other hand, Sonali chicken, once sold at Tk330 per kg, now sells at Tk350. Broiler chicken is Tk190. Beef has climbed sharply from Tk750 to Tk850 per kg. Among fish, rui, shing, koi, and pabda have risen by Tk20 to Tk 30 per kg, though other varieties remain stable.

Onions, sold for Tk50 on Friday, were Tk60 yesterday. Local garlic has reached Tk120 from Tk90–100, while imported one stands at Tk160. Chinese ginger is selling at Tk160, and the local variety at Tk130–140.

Khesari lentils have increased from Tk85–90 to Tk100 per kg. However, other pulses are stable, such as mung, masoor, and chickpeas. Sugar prices Tk100, gram flour at Tk80, and dried chili at Tk350 per kg. Isabgol husk is priced at Tk150 per 100 grams.

The price of pulao rice has gone up from Tk135 to Tk140 per kg, while other rice varieties remain steady: Miniket at Tk80, Atash at Tk60, and Pajam at Tk55. Loose soybean oil is selling at Tk200 per liter and loose mustard oil at Tk220.

Within a week, prices of dates have jumped Tk50–100 per kg depending on the variety. Despite a reduction in import duty from 25% to 15% last December — aimed at boosting imports and stabilising prices — market rates have climbed instead.

Currently, Zahidi dates are selling at Tk280 per kg, up from Tk250 a week ago. Boro'i items sell for Tk480–500, Dabbas at Tk500, Kalmi at Tk700 (up from Tk600), Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom at Tk850–1,200, Mariam at Tk1, 100–1,400, and Medjool at Tk1, 200–1,500 per kg.

Besides, nearly all varieties of fruits have increased by Tk20–60 per kg within a week, with traders claiming heightened demand for Ramadan.

Apples are selling at Tk260–350 per kg, oranges at Tk240–350, malta at Tk250–280, white grapes at Tk520–550, black grapes at Tk550–600, and pomegranates at Tk450–550.

Arif Majumdar, a fruit trader at New Market, said dealers have hiked prices in anticipation of Ramadan. "Election-related disruptions also prevented some shipments from arriving.

India is in talks with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands over deals to jointly explore, extract, process and recycle critical minerals, sources said, as it broadens its global outreach to secure supplies of key raw materials.

The focus would be on lithium and rare earths, and India would also seek access to mineral-processing technologies, the sources said, declining to be identified because the discussions are confidential.

Heavy reliance on arch rival China, which dominates global supplies of many minerals and has advanced mining and processing technology, underscores the need for India to reach out to a range of countries as it accelerates its energy transition to cut emissions, mining experts said.

However, from discovery to production, mining can take years, as exploration alone runs five to seven years and often ends without a viable mine.

India aims to replicate elements of a critical minerals agreement it signed with Germany in January, which covers exploration, processing and recycling, as well as the acquisition and development of mineral assets in both countries and in third countries, one of the sources said.

"There are requests and we are talking to France, Netherlands and Brazil while the agreement with Canada is under active consideration," the source said.

The Ministry of Mines is leading the effort, the sources said.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney is likely to visit India in early March and sign deals on uranium, energy, minerals and artificial intelligence.

Asked for comment, Canada's Natural Resources Department referred to a January statement saying both sides had agreed to formalise cooperation on critical minerals in the coming weeks.

Brazil's embassy in New Delhi, India's Ministry of Mines and the foreign ministry did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment. The embassy of the Netherlands did not comment while the embassy of France declined to comment.

India has been scouting globally for critical minerals and has signed pacts with Argentina, Australia, and Japan, and is in talks with Peru and Chile on broader bilateral agreements that also cover critical minerals.

India's expanding international engagement comes at a time when finance ministers from the G7 and other major economies met in Washington last month to discuss ways to cut dependence on rare earths from China.

In 2023, India identified more than 20 minerals, including lithium, as "critical" for its energy transition and to meet rising demand from industry and the infrastructure sector.

Oil prices eased slightly on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil futures were down 18 cents, or 0.26%, at $68.85 a barrel by 0353 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $64.15.

That's after prices rose more than 1% on Monday, when the US Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran's territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces permission to board if asked.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Iran along with fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

The guidance was issued despite Iran's top diplomat saying last week that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the US were off to a "good start" and set to continue.

"While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening, or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a modest risk premium intact," Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters.

The move is part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow, over the war in Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as the Asian country steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi's push for a trade deal with Washington.

Bank deposit growth in Bangladesh rose to 11.10% in December 2025, marking the highest rate in 50 months, driven largely by robust remittance inflows and higher deposit interest rates.

Bangladesh Bank data shows that total deposits in the banking sector stood at more than Tk19.73 lakh crore at the end of December 2025, up from Tk17.76 lakh crore a year earlier.

Managing directors of several banks have attributed the rise primarily to increased remittance inflows, despite persistent challenges such as high inflation, rising unemployment, subdued export earnings and sluggish private sector credit growth.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director & CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, told TBS that remittance growth had played a decisive role. "Despite rising unemployment and stagnant incomes, the volume of deposits has grown because remittances have increased," he said.

Sohail RK Hussain, managing director of Bank Asia, said public confidence in banks as a safe investment avenue also contributed to the growth. "When remittances come through banking channels, they are converted into taka, which increases the volume of deposits. Moreover, deposit interest rates are now higher than before," he said.

According to central bank data, remittance inflows reached $3.22 billion in December 2025, the third-highest monthly figure in the country's history, compared with $2.64 billion in December 2024. The highest-ever monthly remittance inflow was recorded in March 2025 at $3.29 billion.

Following the political transition in 2024, remittance flows through formal banking channels began to rise steadily.

A senior official of Bangladesh Bank said the central bank moved away from the 9-6 interest rate regime in mid-2024, after which both deposit and lending rates increased. Under the previous policy, depositors received relatively lower returns, but the shift has made bank deposits more attractive.

A treasury head at a private commercial bank said deposit rates currently range between 9% and 9.5%, which is above the prevailing inflation rate. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds have declined, prompting individuals and institutions to park funds in bank deposits.

In September 2021, deposit growth stood at 11.26%. Thereafter, it declined steadily, remaining in single digits for 17 consecutive months before returning to double digits in August 2025.

Currency outside banks drops

Bangladesh Bank data also shows that currency outside the banking system declined slightly. As of December 2025, currency outside banks stood at Tk2.75 lakh crore, compared with Tk2.76 lakh crore in December 2024 – a decrease of over Tk1,000 crore.

Bangladesh has agreed to abolish the long-standing requirement for non-life insurers to reinsure at least 50% of their business with state-owned Sadharan Bima Corporation (SBC), marking one of the most significant financial sector reforms embedded in the newly signed US-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade.

Under the existing regime, all non-life insurers are required to cede half of their reinsurance portfolio to SBC, effectively guaranteeing the state-owned reinsurer a steady stream of premium income.

The new trade deal commits Dhaka to removing this mandatory cession requirement, including for US insurers, opening the market to full competition.

The move represents a structural shift in Bangladesh's insurance and reinsurance architecture, which has for decades operated under a protectionist framework designed to shield the national reinsurer.

Industry insiders say the decision will liberalise the reinsurance market, allowing private and foreign reinsurers to compete freely without being forced to route business through SBC.

US insurers and global reinsurance firms are expected to be among the primary beneficiaries, while domestic insurers will gain greater flexibility in selecting reinsurance partners based on pricing, capacity and risk diversification.

However, the reform is likely to significantly erode SBC's dominant position.

The state-owned reinsurer has historically relied on compulsory cessions to secure predictable premium flows.

Without that guaranteed pipeline, it may face mounting competitive pressure to improve underwriting standards, pricing and operational efficiency.

The issue has already triggered concern within policy circles.

On 11 November last year, SBC sent a letter to the Financial Institutions Division of the Ministry of Finance warning against the removal of the mandatory reinsurance clause.

In the letter, the corporation argued that repealing the provision would allow local insurers to reinsure abroad without restriction, potentially leading to substantial foreign currency outflows.

It also cautioned that unrestricted overseas reinsurance could increase the risk of money laundering through premium payments.

Analysts say the foreign exchange dimension could be particularly sensitive at a time when Bangladesh continues to manage dollar shortages under an IMF-supported reform programme.

A larger share of reinsurance premiums paid overseas would inevitably add pressure on the balance of payments.

Supporters of the reform, however, argue that a competitive reinsurance market could strengthen risk management practices, improve service quality and enhance the overall resilience of the insurance sector.

Bangladesh will purchase $3.5 billion of US agricultural products and $15 billion of energy products over 15 years, as part of a broader reciprocal trade agreement with Washington signed yesterday.

This procurement value will increase if the planned purchase of 14 Boeing jets by state-run Biman is taken into account.

The interim government this week said it is going to sign a deal with Boeing to purchase 14 planes valued at around Tk 30,000–35,000 crore ($2.46–2.87 billion).

“Bangladesh commits to provide significant preferential market access for US industrial and agricultural goods, including: chemicals; medical devices; machinery and motor vehicles and parts; information and communication technology (ICT) equipment; energy products; soy products; dairy products; beef; poultry; and tree nuts and fruit,” said a joint statement issued by the White House yesterday.

The US will cut reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19 percent from the existing 20 percent, with some products eligible for a zero tariff rate.

A mechanism will also be introduced to allow a specified volume of Bangladeshi textiles and apparel to enter the US duty-free, linked to the export of American cotton and man-made fibre inputs, it said.

The agreement was signed after negotiations spanned more than nine months since April 2025, following the initial imposition of a 37 percent tariff by the US on Bangladesh’s exports to its markets.

The US is the single biggest market for Bangladesh’s exports.

The statement said the deal between the two nations builds upon the longstanding economic relationship, including the US-Bangladesh Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement (TICFA), signed in 2013.

As per the agreement, Dhaka has pledged to lower non-tariff barriers by recognising US vehicle safety standards, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) certificates for medical devices and pharmaceuticals, and removing restrictions on remanufactured goods. It will also digitalise customs procedures, permit free cross-border data transfers, and adopt good regulatory practices.

“The agreement commits Bangladesh to strengthen labour protections, enforce environmental laws, and adopt robust intellectual property standards, including provisions on geographical indications to safeguard US producers of cheese and meat.”

Washington, meanwhile, will consider financing investment in critical sectors through institutions such as the Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation, it added.

“Bangladesh commits to a robust standard for intellectual property protection and enforcement, including ratifying or acceding to and fully implementing certain international intellectual property treaties,” the statement said.

The South Asian country has also committed to provisions on geographical indications that will preserve US market access, particularly for US cheese and meat producers who rely on the use of common names, it added.

The statement said both governments would “promptly finalise” the agreement and complete domestic formalities before it enters into force.

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said that there are several complex issues involved in approving the proposal aimed at strengthening Bangladesh Bank’s (BB) autonomy, and that they will be handled by the elected government.

“These are difficult decisions. It is not the job of the interim government to make such decisions. The next government will decide on these matters,” he said after a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Government Procurement yesterday.

Autonomy of the central bank does not mean changing the governor’s status to minister status. It involves several internal issues, such as changing the composition of the board, including members from the private sector, and ensuring that no government bureaucrats remain.

When asked, the finance adviser assessed his own performance over the past 18 months at more than 70 out of 100.

“I am pragmatic about this. I don’t beat my own drum,” he said, noting that there were many things he wanted to do but could not.

“I started many initiatives, but could not complete them. That is why I definitely cannot give myself a full 100 marks.”

Regarding the separation of the National Board of Revenue (NBR), he said the process has been initiated, but could not be completed.

The interim government has no political agenda behind these reforms, he stressed. These reforms were undertaken in the public interest and must be carried forward by the next government.

Speaking about the overall economic situation, the adviser said the interim government inherited a collapsed economy and managed to bring it to a stable position, though many challenges remain.

Economic activity and trade must accelerate. Otherwise, employment will not increase. Reducing inflation remains a challenge and cannot be addressed through monetary policy alone -- improvements on the supply side are also necessary.

He added that the banking sector continues to face significant challenges, with deep-rooted problems requiring tough measures.

The BB governor has taken steps in this regard, which are praiseworthy, but “praise alone is not enough,” the adviser said. There is still a shortage of credit supply and a lack of depositor confidence in the banking sector, although confidence has partially returned.

Regarding small shareholders of the five merged banks, he said the finance ministry is working on ways to compensate their losses. The issue is quite complex, and options such as providing shares in the new banks or offering some form of financial compensation are being considered.

The gap between what Bangladesh buys and sells abroad, known as trade deficit, grew over 18 percent in the first half (H1) of the current fiscal year 2025-26, driven by rising imports and declining export earnings.

The country’s trade deficit ballooned to $11.55 billion in the six months through December 2025, up from $9.76 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.

During the period, import bills rose 5 percent year-on-year to $33.67 billion, driven partly by pre-Ramadan purchasing, according to Balance of Payments (BoP) data released by the central bank.

Export earnings, meanwhile, slipped 0.9 percent to $22.12 billion.

Industry insiders expect the deficit to widen further in coming months as imports continue to rise while exports show no clear upward trend.

Global commodity prices remain stable for now, but any uptick would push import costs higher.

The solution, industry representatives argue, lies in diversifying into new export markets and products.

The broader balance of payments, however, shows a more encouraging trend. The current account deficit actually narrowed to $343 million from $518 million a year earlier.

The current account captures the net flow of funds into and out of the country, including payments for goods and services, income earned from overseas investments, and foreign aid. When imports exceed exports, or when outgoing payments for investment and aid are higher than incoming receipts, the account moves into deficit.

Meanwhile, the surplus in the financial account – which tracks cross-border flows related to investments, loans, aid, and other financial transactions – quadrupled to $2 billion from $525 million.

The surge in the financial account was buoyed by stronger net foreign direct investment, which climbed to $828 million from $553 million.

The net result is a $1.94 billion balance of payments surplus, reversing last year’s $467 million deficit.

Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil futures were down 16 cents, or 0.23 percent, at $68.88 a barrel by 0800 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $64.16.

That’s after prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, when the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran’s territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces permission to board if asked.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Iran and fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

The guidance was issued despite Iran’s top diplomat saying last week that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the US were off to a “good start” and set to continue.

“While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening, or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a modest risk premium intact,” Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters.

The move is part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow, over the war in Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as the Asian country steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi’s push for a trade deal with Washington.