Rising costs of consumer goods and industrial materials are being driven by delays and lack of coordination at Chattogram Port, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (20 February).

"These inefficiencies are affecting both industrial production and market prices. If port problems are addressed, cargo clearance will speed up and additional costs will decrease," he said after a meeting with the Port Users Forum at his Mehedibagh residence.

The meeting was attended by representatives from the port, customs, transport workers, and other relevant stakeholders.

The minister said each point was discussed in detail, examining where and why problems occur and the reasons behind rising costs.

Some issues were resolved immediately, while a few require further inter-ministerial coordination and will take several more days to finalise.

Khasru highlighted that different stakeholders at the port operate independently, creating a fragmented system. "Each group is running its own operations, forming separate zones of control. Responsibilities are unclear, which contributes to rising costs," he said.

He added that delays in cargo clearance, extra charges, and procedural complexities are significant factors behind increased costs.

"These additional expenses are being passed on to consumers and are reflected in both industrial production and market prices," he said.

"The impact is not limited to consumer goods. Almost all imported products, including raw materials used in industries, are affected, and the public bears the burden of these additional costs. With Ramadan approaching, special emphasis is being given to faster clearance of essential items. Delays in delivery could push up market prices, while faster clearance would help reduce these extra costs," he said.

He also said the government has taken initiatives to ease the pressure on the national economy caused by port inefficiencies.

"Some solutions have already been implemented today, and others will be finalised through discussion. We hope effective measures will be taken very soon. Once port operations speed up, cargo clearance will improve, production costs will decrease, and market price pressures will ease," Khasru added.

Bangladesh’s economy last week witnessed a mix of post-election gains in the capital market alongside data underscoring underutilised development spending. While investors regained confidence following the national polls, systemic challenges in fiscal management and trade readiness remain pressing.

The following is a recap of major stories covered by Star Business:

Rebuilding business confidence cannot wait (Feb 15)
Business leaders and economists urged the government to restore investor trust to revitalise the private sector. They noted that persistent law-and-order challenges and weak institutional coordination have eroded confidence, making immediate policy interventions essential for a sustainable turnaround.

Stocks jump to 18-month high after vote (Feb 16)
The Dhaka Stock Exchange surged following the national election, with indices hitting an 18-month high. Investors displayed renewed optimism as political clarity returned, sparking a buying spree across sectors and sharply increasing daily turnover.

US trade deal overshadows Bangladesh’s economic freedom (Feb 17)
A newly signed trade agreement with the US offers a 19 percent reciprocal tariff but imposes restrictive clauses. Critics argue that the requirement to use US-origin cotton for duty-free access may benefit Washington more than Dhaka’s garment industry.

Development spending plunges to 16-year low (Feb 17)
Implementation of the Annual Development Programme fell to a 16-year low due to political unrest and bureaucratic delays. Only a fraction of the allocated budget was utilised, threatening GDP growth targets and slowing critical infrastructure projects nationwide.

Interim govt stopped macro bleeding but couldn’t reignite growth (Feb 18)
While the interim administration stabilised foreign exchange reserves and narrowed the current account deficit, industrial growth remains stagnant. High inflation and energy shortages continue to hamper manufacturing, preventing full recovery.

Legal fights heat up in telecom sector (Feb 19)
Major telecom operators are locked in intensifying legal disputes with the regulator over audit claims and spectrum fees. These courtroom battles risk disrupting future investment and service quality in one of the country’s most dynamic sectors.

‘Substantial gaps’ found in LDC readiness (Feb 20)
A recent assessment revealed significant shortcomings in Bangladesh’s preparation for graduating from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. Experts warned that without addressing supply chain weaknesses and securing GSP+ benefits, the export sector faces a steep competitive cliff.

Gold prices rose more than 1 percent on Friday, supported by weaker‑than‑expected US GDP data, while investors digested President Donald Trump’s announcement of fresh global tariffs following the US Supreme Court’s tariffs ruling.

Spot gold was up 1.5 percent at $5,071.48 an ounce by 02:08 p.m. (1908 GMT). US gold futures for April delivery settled 1.7 percent higher at $5,080.90.

“It’s hard to see the president collecting his toys and going home; he will try to re-establish tariffs using other statutes which will promote volatility,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Medium-term uncertainty won’t deter gold bulls, Wong added. Trump said that he would impose a 10 percent global tariff for 150 days to replace some of his emergency duties that were struck down by the US Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court declared illegal his broad global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling that he had overstepped his authority under that law.

Data showed US economic growth slowed sharply to a 1.4 percent annualized rate in Q4, well below economists’ forecast of 3 percent, as the government shutdown and softer consumer spending hit activity.

Separately, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, rose 0.4 percent in December, above expectations for a 0.3 percent increase.

“(The data) shows inflation is still present in the marketplace ... but with GDP coming in lower, it suggests the economy is not close to a turning point. There are still many unknowns and uncertainties around the US economy, and that is supportive for gold,” said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

Traders still expect two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first expected in June.

Gold, considered a safe-haven asset when there is geopolitical and economic uncertainty, also tends to do well when interest rates are low.

A landmark ruling by the US Supreme Court torpedoing Trump tariffs effectively upsets Bangladesh's trade arrangements with the United States, prompting calls for a cautious reassessment of the recently signed bilateral deal.

The media-highlighted "blow" to President Donald Trump's tariff regime -- which threw world trade order into a vortex -- comes close on the heels of Bangladesh electing a new government. Business community has been requesting it to go for a review and renegotiation of the trade deal signed by the immediate-past interim government.

Business leaders and economists told The Financial Express Saturday that the verdict has effectively altered the legal foundation of the reciprocal tariff regime on which much of the Bangladesh-US agreement was based.

They note that commitments reportedly linked to the tariff framework -- including large-scale import arrangements ranging from US wheat to Boeing aircraft -- may now need to be reviewed if they were tied to the invalidated measures.

In this evolving situation, analysts say, Bangladesh must closely monitor developments in Washington and carefully evaluate its obligations under the agreement. With the legal and policy context shifting rapidly, a measured and legally sound reassessment may be essential to safeguard the country's trade interests.

Dr Zaidi Sattar, Chairman of Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), says as of now, reciprocal tariffs come to "naught" as a result of the Supreme Court judgment. But RT is replaced with a 10-percent levy for 150 days.

As for the US-BD Reciprocal Trade Agreement, 19-percent RT will be replaced with 10-percent tariff. What is not clear as yet is if the 10 per cent will be on top of existing tariffs, which is 16.5 per cent on RMG and footwear.

"Then the new situation gets worse for BD, except that the saving grace is the 'Buy American Cotton Act 2025', which allows duty-free export of apparel that uses US cotton and MMF."

He says, "If anything, it creates a messy situation on two grounds: what about refund of tariff rev already collected, and what happens to the US-BD Reciprocal Trade Agreement"

Shovon Islam, Managing Director of Sparrow Group, says the reciprocal tariffs became "null and void" following the American apex court's decision.

"The President has to follow the Supreme Court's ruling. There are no ifs or buts," he notes.

According to the apparel exporter, if any agreement entered into by a US government department -- including the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) -- was based on modifying or applying the reciprocal tariffs, then that specific portion of the agreement would also lose its legal standing.

However, he clarifies that other components of trade agreements not directly linked to the reciprocal tariffs, such as commercial buying and selling commitments, would remain valid unless separately challenged.

Mr Islam notes that, based on information from US business partners, the Bangladesh-US trade agreement has not yet come into effect. As the deal-required exchange of formal notifications remains incomplete, its current status is still unclear.

He adds that buyers who have already paid tariffs are preparing to seek refunds from the US Treasury if the reciprocal duties are formally withdrawn.

In his view, any attempt by President Donald Trump to reintroduce similar tariffs would require fresh legislation in Congress -- a process he describes as lengthy and politically challenging.

Meanwhile, corporate America is a making a demand for US$130 refund of import tariffs already paid under the new tariff regime.

Dr Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), says the Supreme Court ruling leaves limited room for ambiguity from a legal perspective, although its practical implications remain uncertain.

The reciprocal tariffs were introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but the court held that the statute does not authorise tariff measures of unbounded scope, magnitude and duration, given Congress's constitutional primacy in tariff-setting.

For Bangladesh, he mentions, the immediate implication is that the bilateral arrangement now stands on shifting ground.

"A large part of the agreement's logic was anchored to a specific tariff regime," he observes. And if that regime's legal basis is removed, the agreement must be reviewed clause by clause to determine what remains enforceable and what has become redundant.

The economic analyst adds that the court order would likely lead to the abolition of reciprocal tariffs, but bilateral agreements already concluded would not automatically become void. Determining which provisions are directly linked to the reciprocal tariffs will require careful legal interpretation.

He also notes that the existing 19-percent tariffs on Bangladeshi exports -- reportedly negotiated down from a proposed 37 per cent under reciprocal terms -- could be reduced to 10 per cent in line with the newly announced uniform tariff applied to all countries.

Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), says the core justification for the reciprocal trade agreement has weakened significantly.

"If the original legal basis of those tariff measures has been cancelled, then the rationale for the agreement also becomes questionable."

He suggests that Bangladesh reassess the deal in the light of the changed policy landscape in Washington. The agreement is scheduled to take effect two months after the exchange of formal notifications -- a process that has yet to be completed -- leaving room for further dialogue.

Mr Rahman argues that if the reciprocal tariff structure no longer stands, related commitments -- including expanded market access and other concessions -- may also warrant reconsideration.

However, he points out that the newly announced 10-percent additional tariff applies to all countries, meaning Bangladesh is not being singled out in the revised framework.

At the same time, he cautions that the US administration retains authority under Section 232 of its trade law to impose product- or country-specific tariffs on national-security grounds. If such measures are introduced, Bangladesh would need to continue negotiations accordingly.

He also questions the timing of the agreement, reportedly signed just two days before the national elections in Bangladesh, and calls for a transparent review by the newly elected government.

The newly sworn-in government faces a daunting economic landscape characterised by fragile macroeconomic stability, stagnant private investment, and a shrinking fiscal capacity, according to the Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh.

The observations were shared at a media briefing titled "Starting Point of the New Government: An Economic Review," held at the BRAC Centre Inn, Dhaka today (19 February) where Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), presented the findings.

The civil society platform emphasised that addressing these structural bottlenecks is critical for stabilising the economy and steering it back toward sustainability.

Towfiqul highlighted that despite a decline in global inflation, domestic levels remain stubbornly high.

The 12-month average inflation rate reached 8.77% in January, significantly exceeding the central bank's target of 7%.

Slow-paced wage growth

Towfiqul noted that while food inflation showed slight signs of easing, non-food sectors provided little relief.

Furthermore, the slow pace of wage growth continues to erode the real income of the working class, worsening the cost-of-living crisis.

The event also pointed out that while a relatively stable exchange rate and a modest rise in foreign exchange reserves have reduced some pressure on the balance of payments, other risks remain.

The government's heavy reliance on bank borrowing to finance the budget deficit, combined with Bangladesh Bank's foreign currency collection from the open market, is contributing to an increased money supply.

The ongoing stagnation in private investment has also led to a decline in employment.

According to a presentation shared during the event, approximately 21 lakh jobs were lost during the first half of the 2025 fiscal year.

New loans to repay old

Highlighting the shrinking fiscal space, Towfiqul stated that internal revenue collection is no longer sufficient to cover recurring expenditures, leading to an increasing trend of taking out new loans to repay existing debt.

Weak revenue collection and pressure of expenditures outside the Annual Development Programme (ADP) are further constricting policy options.

Notably, according to the CPD researcher, ADP spending in fiscal years 2025 and 2026 has dropped to historically low levels.

In light of these challenges, the platform recommended the adoption of an economic stabilisation plan, including strict budget ceilings for the remainder of the current fiscal.

It also urged the formulation of a realistic budget framework for the next fiscal, the formation of a multilateral development forum, and the implementation of a reform roadmap with specific timelines.

Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh states that achieving macroeconomic stability will be difficult without a clear LDC graduation strategy and a medium-term plan based on realistic targets.

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.

The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.

Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.

In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and the Trump administration's response to it, and respond appropriately."

China, which is preparing to host Trump in late March, has yet to formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, said Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages".

"This shows the stability of Hong Kong's policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new US tariffs would affect the city's economy.

Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

While Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.

Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.

Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.

Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government had yet to determine how to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.

"While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.

Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US - one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.

More confusion

Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.

Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.

In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026.

The ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States limiting President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs should modestly ease policy uncertainty for Bangladesh's apparel exporters.

Bangladesh had been subject to a 19% "reciprocal" tariff under the recent US-Bangladesh trade arrangement, so the invalidation of those IEEPA-based duties reduces the risk of sudden, across-the-board tariff hikes imposed under emergency authority.

For Bangladesh's garment sector - highly dependent on the US market - predictability is almost as important as the tariff rate itself.

Although Trump has announced a new 10% global tariff under a different legal provision, its uniform application across countries effectively restores a more level playing field in the short term, compared to the differentiated reciprocal regime.

In terms of immediate order flows, I would not expect a sharp spike right away. US buyers typically place apparel orders months in advance, and sourcing strategies are shaped by longer-term considerations related to cost, compliance, and logistics.

However, the court decision could improve buyer sentiment by reducing legal uncertainty and the prospect of retroactive duties. Some American retailers may briefly pause to assess the evolving policy environment, especially given Trump's signal that he intends to pursue tariffs under alternative legal authorities.

If the new 10% tariff proves more stable and predictable than the earlier emergency-based regime, it could gradually support steadier order volumes from US importers.

However, I am concerned that a new set of restrictive trade measures from the US administration may be forthcoming, which could continue to disrupt the global trading system.

In this context, the hastily concluded trade agreement between Bangladesh and the United States - signed by the interim government just days before the national election - is already being questioned. Under this agreement, Bangladesh's interests appear to be significantly underrepresented. Moreover, the future of the agreement remains uncertain in light of the evolving legal and policy landscape.

On competitiveness, Bangladesh could see a relative advantage if higher country-specific tariffs on major competitors - particularly China - remain constrained or face legal scrutiny.

If the tariff gap between Bangladesh and higher-cost suppliers widens or becomes more predictable, US brands may accelerate diversification toward Bangladeshi factories.

However, competitiveness will still hinge on productivity, lead times, compliance standards, and infrastructure - not just tariffs.

In the bigger picture, the ruling reinforces constitutional limits on executive trade authority, which may lead to more congressional involvement in future tariff decisions.

For Bangladesh, a more rules-based US trade environment would likely be preferable to abrupt, executive-driven shifts.

Dr Selim Raihan is the executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem).

Expatriate Bangladeshis have sent over $2 billion in remittances during the first 18 days of February, as money transfers surged ahead of Ramadan and Eid.

According to data released by Bangladesh Bank on Thursday (Feb 19), if this upward trend continues, total remittances for the month are expected to cross the $3 billion milestone.

Central bank statistics show that January 2026 saw an inflow of $3.17 billion, marking it as the third-highest monthly total in the country's history. The current fiscal year (FY 2025–26) has shown robust growth, with total remittances reaching $21.56 billion between July 1 and February 18.

This represents a significant 22.3 percent increase compared to the $17.63 billion received during the same period of last fiscal year 2024-25.

The historical peaks for monthly remittances remain:

$3.29 billion (March 2025 – fueled by Eid-ul-Fitr)

$3.22 billion (December 2025)

$3.17 billion (January 2026)

Impact on Reserves

Economists believe the surge in formal channel transfers is a result of a stabilized exchange rate and a decrease in illegal hundi activities following the political transition in August 2024. This influx is providing a much-needed boost to the nation's foreign exchange reserves.

As of February 17, the country's gross reserves stood at $34.54 billion. However, according to the IMF’s BPM-6 calculation method, the net reserves are currently valued at $29.86 billion.

Banking officials and experts point to two primary drivers:

Ramadan Preparation: Families in Bangladesh face higher expenses during Ramadan, prompting expatriates to send more money home.

Increased confidence in the banking sector and a stable dollar rate have encouraged migrants to shun illegal channels in favor of official ones.

The Dhaka stock market ended the week on a positive note, with National Bank emerging as the top gainer, while Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC stood as the worst-performing stock.

National Bank registered a strong 29.27% weekly return, closing at Tk5.30, driven by notable investor interest in banking stocks.

Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) followed with a 28.57% gain to settle at Tk3.60. S Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited continued its recent rally, advancing 27.50% to Tk15.30 despite persistent financial concerns.

Other significant gainers included Fareast Finance and Premier Leasing, both rising 27.27% to Tk1.40 each. Prime Finance climbed 22.73% to Tk2.70, while Daffodil Computer gained 22% to close at Tk56.

Infographic: TBS
Infographic: TBS

Meanwhile, Familytex and Tung Hai Knitting each posted 20% gains, ending the week at Tk1.80 and Tk2.40, respectively. Shurwid Industries advanced 19.61% to Tk6.10.

On the losing side, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC declined 12.28% to close at Tk45.70, topping the losers' chart. ICB Islamic Bank fell 10.71% to Tk2.50, while Midas Finance shed 9.38% to Tk6.40.

Al-Arafah Islami Bank lost 9.09% to Tk16, and Union Capital dropped 8.89% to Tk4.10. Crystal Insurance retreated 8.53% to Tk77.20, while Asiatic Laboratories Limited fell 7.89% to Tk63. Phoenix Finance also declined 7.50% to Tk3.70.

The benchmark DSEX index extended its upward trend for the fifth consecutive week, supported by strong post-election optimism at the start of trading.

Following the election holidays, trading resumed with broad-based buying pressure that pushed the index past the 5,600-mark for the first time in nearly six months.

However, EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, noted that the initial enthusiasm moderated in later sessions as investors engaged in profit-booking and adopted a cautious stance, closely watching policy signals and regulatory developments under the newly elected government.

By the end of the week, DSEX gained 66 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 5,466. Market participation remained strong, with average daily turnover rising to Tk1,050 crore.

Sector-wise, the banking sector dominated trading activity, accounting for 20.7% of total turnover, followed by pharmaceuticals at 16.3% and textiles at 10.2%.

Most sectors posted positive returns during the week. The paper sector led gains with a 5.3% increase, while IT and ceramics rose 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, the jute sector emerged as the worst performer, declining 3%.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has cautioned that the recent surge in stock market indices, centred on election optimism, is largely confidence-driven and cosmetic rather than a sign of sustainable recovery.

Speaking to journalists at his residence in Mehedibag, Chattogram, on Friday during his first visit to the port city after taking oath as a minister in the new government, Khosru said temporary gains based on sentiment would not bring fundamental change to the capital market.

He noted that the current upward trend may reflect expectations of a democratic government but stressed that only sustainable and structural reforms could ensure long-term stability.

The finance minister said the government would introduce comprehensive reforms in the capital market, including necessary amendments to laws and the regulatory framework. In particular, the role of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission would be further strengthened.

He emphasised enhancing the effectiveness of the regulator, ensuring greater transparency, and adopting a zero-tolerance approach towards irregularities.

Khosru also said initiatives would be taken to bring fundamentally strong and profitable companies to the market to offer investors quality investment opportunities. At the same time, attracting both domestic and foreign investment funds to boost liquidity and restore investor confidence would remain a priority.

"If these measures are implemented, not only the capital market but also industry, trade, exports and production will benefit," he said, adding that increased employment and overall economic growth would follow.

Meanwhile, BSEC Chairman Khondkar Rashed Maqsood described the stock market as an extremely sensitive area where no "garbage" could be tolerated.

He made the remarks as chief guest at an iftar event organised by the Capital Market Journalists Forum on Friday afternoon.

Maqsood said irregularities and misconduct must be eliminated, and that journalists covering the capital market were playing a crucial role in exposing manipulation and rumour-driven profit-taking.

"If reporting increases, such garbage will also be removed," he said.

However, he warned that the capital market reacts swiftly to information and stressed the importance of verifying facts before publication. Unverified reports, he cautioned, could cause immediate damage. While the commission does not discourage reporting, it expects responsible and fact-checked journalism.

At the same event, Professor Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, said a strong capital market is closely linked to overall economic performance.

He expressed optimism about positive developments under the new government and underscored the need for economic training to make capital market reporting more informative and analytical.

A five-day meeting of the UN Committee for Development Policy (UN CDP) is set to begin tomorrow in New York City, where Bangladesh's graduation-related submission will be assessed.

Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, a CDP member and head of its Enhanced Monitoring Mechanism (EMM), a sub-committee under UN CDP, was traveling to New York last night to attend the sessions.

The EMM sub-committee is also scheduled to meet this week and will review the current situation of countries that have already completed their graduation process, as well as those in the pipeline. The three countries currently in the pipeline are Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos.

"One of the sessions of the UN CDP meeting will discuss the status of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos, which are waiting in the graduation pipeline. It will be scrutinised what progress these countries have made so far and whether they are prepared for graduation at the end of the year," Debapriya told The Business Standard before leaving Dhaka.

Bangladesh seeks 3-year deferral of LDC graduation

The EMM sub-committee reviews how smoothly graduating and graduated LDCs are progressing. It also analyses whether countries that have already graduated are actually able to maintain sustainability. Bangladesh's request for graduation deferral will also be discussed at the meeting.

"There is a crisis button under the EMM. If Bangladesh pushes the button, then the nature of the stated crisis will be analysed and cross-checked with the latest data. Besides, the graduation assessment report of Bangladesh submitted to UN CDP last year will also be taken into consideration. In particular, the information provided in the government's report last November will be weighed against the new application," he said.

The economist also said that Economic Relations Division (ERD) Secretary Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky, who has now requested a postponement of graduation, had stated in November that everything was on track. Bangladesh's level of commitment to implementing its Smooth Transition Strategy during the graduation period will also be taken into consideration.

Referring to the instance of graduation deferment of Solomon Islands, Debapriya said that the head of the country's government had written the letter seeking time for graduation preparedness, while Bangladesh's request letter was signed by a secretary.

The interim government's Council of Advisers had decided not to seek a deferral of graduation. However, the new government submitted such a request immediately after assuming office. Nepal and Laos have not made any new applications, he said.

Therefore, according to the CDP member, the experiences of these two countries will also be reviewed while assessing Bangladesh's request.

The day after assuming office, the new government formally applied to defer Bangladesh's graduation from the Least Developed Countries category by three years.

On Wednesday, the ERD secretary sent a letter to José Antonio Ocampo, chair of the UN CDP, which operates under the UN Economic and Social Council (Ecosoc).

The letter mentioned a range of domestic and external challenges and requested that the LDC graduation timeline be extended until 24 November 2029. Under the previous decision, Bangladesh is set to graduate on 24 November this year. The third and final review process ahead of graduation is currently underway.

At the urging of leaders of the country's top business bodies and several economists, the immediate past interim government had recommended pursuing an extension until 2030 in coordination with other countries, such as Nepal and Laos, which are on a similar graduation track. The final decision on the matter, however, was left to the elected government.

On Wednesday, after taking charge, Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir told journalists that all necessary steps would be taken to delay LDC graduation.

He said the ministry had begun working on the issue immediately and would move swiftly in coordination with the ERD to advance the deferral process. Later that same day, the ERD secretary sent the letter to the CDP chair.

High-cost infrastructure projects awarded largely through non-competitive contracts, coupled with weak revenue mobilisation, are increasing Bangladesh's exposure to external public debt risks, according to official data and a new independent study.

Although external debt inflows continue to rise, government revenue growth has failed to keep pace, pushing key debt indicators closer to risk thresholds.

According to the Economic Relations Division's (ERD) latest Flow of External Resources into Bangladesh report, the debt-to-revenue ratio climbed to 16.92% by the end of FY2024-25, up from 16.53% a year earlier. The IMF's indicative threshold for this ratio is 18%.

The ERD cautioned that without faster revenue growth, Bangladesh may lose its current "comfortable position" in servicing external debt.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS
Key debt indicators edging upward

Other external debt indicators present a mixed picture.

The debt-to-exports of goods and services plus remittances (XGS) ratio improved slightly, falling to 105.87% at the end of FY2024-25 from 110.09% a year earlier, well below the IMF's 180% threshold.

The debt-to-GDP ratio, though still low by international standards, is rising gradually. It stood at 18.99% at the end of FY2024-25, up from 17.03% in FY2023-24, against a 40% benchmark.

Bangladesh's total medium- and long-term (MLT) external debt reached $77.279 billion as of 30 June 2025, compared with $68.822 billion a year earlier — an increase of $8.457 billion. Net government external borrowing during the year amounted to $5.832 billion.

Exchange rate movements also played a role. The appreciation of the US dollar against the SDR and other currencies added $2.510 billion to the debt stock in dollar terms. Meanwhile, depreciation of the taka increases debt servicing costs in local currency.

Liquidity indicators show mounting pressure. The interest service ratio for MLT debt rose to 2.96% in FY2024-25 from 2.87% the previous year. The total debt service ratio — principal and interest payments as a share of exports — increased from 7.16% to 8.12%, reflecting the beginning of principal repayments on several loans.

The debt service-to-revenue ratio rose sharply from 9.17% to 11.41%, underscoring the strain created by rising obligations and sluggish revenue mobilisation.

While these metrics still indicate manageable liquidity risk, they suggest growing pressure on fiscal space.

External debt up 377% since 2009

Concerns over longer-term sustainability were amplified by a recent study by researchers from SOAS University of London, supported by the Open Society Foundations and Change Initiative.

The study found that Bangladesh's external debt increased from $23.5 billion in 2009 to nearly $112 billion in 2025 — a 377% rise.

Over the same period, one out of every Tk5 in government revenue is now spent on interest payments alone, before repayment of principal.

Analysing 42 mega infrastructure projects undertaken between 2009 and 2025, the study found that 29 projects experienced average cost escalation of 70.3%. Around 35% of infrastructure project costs were estimated to have been lost to corruption and inefficiency.

The study, titled "Corruption in Infrastructure Projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Implications for Public Debt," found that projects awarded through direct government-to-government (G2G) arrangements were, on average, more than 400% costlier than those procured through transparent competitive bidding.

It warned that unrestricted G2G contracts and weak oversight significantly increase long-term debt burdens and macroeconomic risks.

Speaking at a discussion in Dhaka this week, development economist Mushtaq Khan of SOAS said even small differences in contract pricing — particularly in power sector projects — can translate into hundreds of millions of dollars in long-term liabilities.

"Once the project is awarded, the inflated benefits are shared among insiders. This is not unique to Bangladesh; it is a global phenomenon," he said, adding that easier access to large external lenders has enabled many developing countries to accumulate infrastructure-driven debt at unsustainable levels.

Lessons from Sri Lanka

The study draws parallels with Sri Lanka, which pursued a similar infrastructure-led growth strategy and eventually defaulted in 2022.

Around 2008, both countries shifted toward high-value infrastructure investments, including ports, highways and energy facilities, often financed by external partners such as China and India.

In Sri Lanka's case, roughly 65% of foreign debt accumulated during that period was linked to energy infrastructure, much of it underutilised or poorly planned, generating insufficient economic returns.

The result was mounting debt without corresponding growth dividends — a dynamic that ultimately contributed to its crisis.

In FY2024-25, Bangladesh's outstanding MLT external debt stood at 152.7% of export earnings, up from 146.12% a year earlier. While this does not yet signal acute solvency risk, the upward trend is notable.

The study warns that if corruption-driven overpricing and governance weaknesses persist, Bangladesh's debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 65–70% by 2030.

It characterises Bangladesh as having moved from a "low-risk stability phase" to a "moderate-risk acceleration phase."

"Sri Lanka's 2022 default could not be predicted simply from gradual trends. Crisis happens when a country suddenly cannot meet a day's interest or principal payment," the study notes.

While Bangladesh remains in a comparatively safer position, the researchers warn that 2028–2032 could become a vulnerable period if corrective measures are delayed.

They recommend tighter expenditure management, stronger tax collection and improved project governance to prevent rapid debt acceleration.

Legacy projects weigh on fiscal space

Former Planning Commission member and ex-secretary Arastoo Khan also acknowledged the risks posed by high-cost, less essential infrastructure projects.

Although the interim government has curtailed new borrowing, he said current debt pressures largely stem from liabilities linked to large projects undertaken in the past decade.

"Bangladesh was previously in a relatively comfortable debt position, but taking multiple high-cost projects simultaneously has created pressure on debt management," he said.

He cited the $12 billion nuclear power plant project, which requires annual interest payments of around $400–450 million.

The challenge, he added, is not borrowing per se, but abnormal cost escalation and overpricing. In many cases, project costs reportedly increased by 25–30%, significantly inflating debt burdens.

While international agencies generally consider a debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 40% manageable, he warned that continued investment in high-cost, low-return projects could make the situation "highly risky" in the coming years.

The study concludes that infrastructure-driven debt accumulation is fundamentally a governance issue, arguing that genuine economic competition — rather than additional layers of rules — is essential to break collusive arrangements and strengthen accountability.

The Trump administration's ambitious tariff strategy against China has failed to achieve its stated economic and geopolitical goals, according to government and industry sources, leaving the US trade deficit at record highs, manufacturing under pressure, and China seizing new global markets.

Trade gap worsens despite tariffs

Contrary to claims that tariffs would shrink the US trade deficit, the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $1.241 trillion in 2025, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. While the combined deficit for goods and services fell marginally to $901.5 billion from $903.5 billion in 2024, the gains were largely symbolic, says the Chosun Daily.

The tariffs succeeded in reducing imports from China by nearly 30% to their lowest level since 2009, but US companies shifted their sourcing to countries including Vietnam, Southeast Asia, India, and Taiwan.

As a result, total US imports rose 4.5% ($145 billion), undermining efforts to narrow the deficit. Analysts emphasize that nearly all of the financial burden of tariffs-an estimated 96%-fell on US firms and consumers rather than foreign exporters.

Legal uncertainty further complicated the picture. The US Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot unilaterally impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to implement a temporary 10% global tariff while seeking alternative legal authorities to sustain its trade policy framework.

Manufacturing gains remain elusive

The tariffs, intended to rejuvenate US manufacturing, largely stunted growth in the sector. Over 83,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in 2025, and factory output stagnated for much of the year. Only in January 2026 did production rise by 0.6%, marking the largest monthly gain in 11 months, reports Reuters.

Certain sectors-particularly technology, machinery, electronics, and motor vehicles-showed modest growth, but economists attribute this largely to an "artificial intelligence spending boom," not tariff-driven protection. High costs of imported inputs and disrupted supply chains continued to squeeze domestic manufacturers.

China turns challenge into opportunity

While US imports from China plummeted, Beijing leveraged the trade conflict to expand its global influence. Overall Chinese exports grew over 5% in 2025, driving a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. To offset losses from the US, China redirected trade toward ASEAN countries, increasing sales by 13%, and to the European Union, which rose by 8%, says the Guardian.

Strategic partnerships also flourished. Canada signed new economic agreements with China, citing adaptation to "new global realities," while South Korea engaged in high-level state visits with Beijing. This realignment illustrates a growing willingness among US allies to diversify partnerships in response to Washington's unilateralism.

China's overproduction has flooded global markets with everything from steel to electric vehicles, prompting over 300 antidumping investigations worldwide and spurring countries like Mexico and India to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Sources describe this "export-led surge" as "strangling" manufacturers across both developed and emerging economies.

Erosion of the international trading order

The tariffs accelerated the breakdown of the World Trade Organization and the rules-based trading system established after World War II. Traditional allies, frustrated by US pressure, increasingly bypass Washington, negotiating trade agreements with China and India. European officials have even questioned the WTO's "most favored nation" principle, suggesting that access to low tariffs should be "earned" through commitments to fair trade rather than guaranteed, says the BBC.

Diplomatic turbulence extended to domestic politics abroad. In Canada, political instability-partly attributed to the US trade threat-led to the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after his deputy criticized the government's handling of US pressures.

US global standing in decline

Rather than strengthening American influence, tariffs have contributed to a perception of the US as an unreliable partner. Favorability ratings in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and Canada fell to near-record lows.

The Supreme Court's decision undermined US negotiating leverage, leaving international partners skeptical of Washington's ability to enforce trade threats, according to the Pew Research Center.

Domestically, policymakers faced setbacks. Job losses, stalled manufacturing growth, and rising input costs undermined claims that tariffs would bolster the US economy. Analysts warn that partisan polarization and internal governance challenges further weaken Washington's ability to project power globally.

The Trump-era tariffs illustrate the limits of unilateral protectionism in a globalized economy. Far from "making America great," the policies have exacerbated domestic economic pressures, failed to reduce the trade deficit, and created openings for China to expand its influence across Asia, Europe, and North America.

Experts argue that the episode underscores the complexity of global trade, where attempts to isolate one player can reverberate across markets and alliances in unforeseen ways.

While the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday against President Donald Trump's use of tariffs marks a clear setback for his use of trade levies as an economic weapon, analysts say it offers little immediate relief for the global economy.

Instead, they expect another bout of activity-crimping confusion combined with near-certainty that Trump will seek other means to replace the raft of global tariffs now struck down as unlawful.

In the meantime, a long list of uncertainties remains - including what new tariffs Trump will seek to impose, whether the funds from the annulled levies will have to be refunded, and whether territories that entered deals with the US to mitigate their impact will see those pacts reopened for review.

Responding to the ruling, Trump announced new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period and acknowledged it was not clear if or when there would be any refunds.

"In general, I think it will just bring in a new period of high uncertainty in world trade, as everybody tries to figure out what the US tariff policy will be going forward," said Varg Folkman, analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank.

"In the end it's going to look pretty much the same."

Economists at ING bank agreed: "The scaffolding has come down, but the building remains under construction. No matter how today's ruling reads, tariffs are here to stay."

Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies. So far, they are estimated to have brought in over $175 billion in funds.

By itself, the ruling chops the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%, trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

Bilateral deals with US could now 'unravel'

Yet no one expects this to remain the status quo: the Trump administration has served notice long before the ruling that it can and will use other legal vehicles to reimpose tariffs.

At the same time, the couple of dozen countries which entered bilateral deals with the US to set tariffs and in some cases invest in the United States - will now assess whether the Supreme Court ruling gives them leverage to renegotiate.

The lawmakers who must ratify the European Union's pact with the United States will do that as soon as Monday, said Bernd Lange, chair of the trade committee of the European Parliament.

"The era of unlimited, arbitrary tariffs ... might now be coming to an end," Lange said on X. "We must now carefully evaluate the ruling and its consequences."

Britain meanwhile expects its privileged trading position with the United States to continue, the government said on Friday of the baseline 10% tariff it agreed with Washington.

Indeed, many countries were learning to live with Trump's tariffs, the bulk of which were being shouldered by Americans, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released this month.

In the most recent update of its regular World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global growth at a "resilient" 3.3% in 2026.

China even reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-US markets as its producers adapted to the Trump onslaught.

Thus, some countries may choose to stick with their existing bilateral deals with the US rather than "inviting the kind of uncertainty we saw in the spring in 2025," EPC's Folkman said of the chaos caused by Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs.

Conversely, Niclas Poitiers, research fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel, noted there were a lot of political question marks over the EU-US trade deal, in which Europe was seen to have backed down and got the short end of the stick.

"There could be circumstances in which the deal unravels," he noted.

Bangladesh's garment exporters welcomed short-term relief after the US Supreme Court scrapped reciprocal tariffs but uncertainty looms large as President Donald Trump increased to 15% the 10% fresh levy he announced immediately after the court ruling.

Industry leaders and economists warn that persistent policy uncertainty in their largest export market could dampen longer-term gains.

Until Friday's ruling, Bangladesh faced a 20% reciprocal tariff on exports to the United States, despite signing — but not ratifying — a bilateral trade agreement that envisaged a 19% rate. Following the court's decision, President Donald Trump immediately declared a flat 10% tariff on all countries for 150 days, a measure that will also apply to Bangladesh. But, a day later, he chose to increase it to its highest ceiling of 15% under the relevant trade clause.

If implemented as announced, Bangladesh's competitive position in the US market would revert to levels seen prior to April 2025. Exporters say the reduced rate could lower import costs for American buyers, potentially translating into lower retail prices for apparel and stronger consumer demand.

Yet they caution that frequent shifts in US tariff policy are unsettling importers. Without clarity over future rates, buyers may avoid placing large, long-term orders and instead opt for smaller consignments to minimise risk exposure.

Agreement in limbo

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the bilateral trade agreement signed with Washington could effectively lapse following the court's ruling. However, analysts believe the United States may still press signatory countries to honour commitments made under the deal, including increased imports of US goods such as arms, wheat, liquefied natural gas and aircraft.

According to Trump, the court has curtailed his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but other statutory avenues remain open for the administration to pursue trade and tariff measures.

The White House has reportedly requested countries including India, the UK and the European Union — all of which have signed trade arrangements with the US — to adhere to concessions granted to Washington under those agreements, despite the shift to a 15% uniform tariff in place of the previously anticipated reciprocal rates.

Experts urge caution, not complacency

Exporters and economists have urged Bangladesh to avoid complacency and closely monitor developments at least until the US midterm elections in November.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's response should be guided by strategy rather than sentiment. He recommended using the 150-day window to identify areas of vulnerability, strengthen compliance with labour and environmental standards, and prepare for potential renegotiations.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, described the development as presenting both opportunities and risks. If the reciprocal tariff framework is invalidated, he said, Bangladesh could seek a review of prior commitments within the agreement's legal provisions — provided exit clauses and notification requirements permit it.

However, he cautioned that the US could still impose uniform tariffs, new non-tariff barriers, quotas or export restrictions. "A sudden withdrawal from the entire agreement could be strategically hazardous," he said, calling for a comprehensive review of existing commitments and preparation for alternative trade restrictions.

Former WTO Cell Director General Md Hafizur Rahman and RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said Bangladesh may face pressure to implement pledges on increased imports of US goods, even though the agreement has not been ratified and is not legally binding.

Industry reaction: relief tempered by risk

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Mahmudul Hasan Babu described the shift as a "lesser of two evils", noting that lower tariffs typically reduce prices and stimulate consumption.

However, he acknowledged that persistent tariff fluctuations are creating uncertainty. "Retailers will not leave shelves empty, but they are likely to import in smaller volumes. Overall exports could actually decline."

Ha-Meem Group Managing Director AK Azad said the 15% levy would not significantly affect Bangladesh, as it is substantially lower than the previous rate.

However, Azad predicted fresh legal challenges in the US against the new tariff regime, suggesting such measures could conflict with global trade rules.

Echoing similar concerns, Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, stressed that the situation remains temporary and unpredictable.

Economist Selim Raihan, professor at the University of Dhaka, said predictability is nearly as important as tariff levels for Bangladesh's garment sector.

"I would not expect a sharp spike in orders immediately, as US buyers typically plan months in advance," he said. While the court ruling may ease legal uncertainty and improve sentiment, he warned that further restrictive trade measures from Washington could disrupt the global trading system and continue to cast a shadow over Bangladesh's export outlook.

The number of household deposit accounts containing between Tk 1 crore and Tk 25 crore rose by nearly 8 percent year-on-year in June 2025, reflecting the key role played by households in sustaining the financial system.

According to a Bangladesh Bank (BB) report, these accounts increased to 36,932 as of June 2025, up from 34,258 in June 2024.

The total amount held in these specific deposit tiers rose from Tk 80,200 crore in June 2024 to Tk 82,000 crore in June 2025.

“The deposit base of Bangladesh’s banking sector remained predominantly concentrated in the private sector, reflecting the central role of households and private institutions in sustaining financial intermediation,” BB said in its June 2025 Banking Sector Update report.

The overall number of household deposit accounts grew significantly from 14.2 crore in June 2024 to 15.9 crore in June 2025, an 11.4 percent increase.

Total household deposit volume also expanded significantly, reaching Tk 11.08 lakh crore in June 2025, compared to Tk 9.93 lakh crore in June 2024.

Private sector deposits accounted for 83 percent of the total, of which household deposits alone constituted 55 percent, underscoring the dominance of individual savings.

Other private entities, including corporations and financial auxiliaries, contributed 28 percent, while the public sector held the remaining 17 percent.

Deposits between Tk 2 lakh and Tk 25 lakh increased to Tk 6.04 lakh crore from Tk 5.22 lakh crore. Meanwhile, small-value accounts of up to Tk 2 lakh rose from Tk 13.3 lakh crore to Tk 14.8 lakh crore.

The central bank noted that this expansion demonstrates both quantitative and qualitative growth, driven by retail and middle-tier savers.

“The data also reveal that deposits are heavily concentrated in small-value accounts, signifying broad-based financial inclusion,” BB said.

Newly appointed Labour and Employment Minister Ariful Haque Chowdhury today (18 February) announced a 100-day action plan focused on strengthening labour welfare, improving industrial relations, enhancing workplace safety and ensuring effective implementation of labour laws.

"Our mission is one. People's expectations are high, and we must work accordingly. To deliver results, we have to work as a team," he said while addressing officials and employees of the ministry on his first working day after taking oath as minister.

He stressed that all activities would be guided by the party's election manifesto and existing policy guidelines. "If we work together with sincerity, we will succeed," he added.

The minister said, "The ministry would review activities carried out over the past year to identify gaps and areas needing improvement. This is our country. We must determine what we aim to achieve within the next 100 days."

Addressing officials, he urged them to utilise their experience and strictly follow the Rules of Business in discharging their duties. "We will not go beyond the rules. Inform the appropriate authorities clearly about what is necessary," he said.

Highlighting the upcoming holy month of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, the minister directed officials to remain proactive to prevent labour unrest, particularly in labour-intensive industries and factories.

State Minister for Labour and Employment Nurul Haque Nur, who also joined the meeting, proposed preparing a three-month work plan to demonstrate tangible achievements and ensure stability in the industrial sector ahead of Eid.

Senior officials of the ministry, including Secretary Sarwar Jahan Bhuiyan, were present at the meeting.

Exports from the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest US gateway for ocean trade, fell 8 percent in January to the lowest monthly output in nearly three years, Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Tuesday.

"Exports to China look dismal," Seroka said after the Port of Los Angeles handled 104,297 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded export containers in January.

President Trump's aggressive use of tariffs has upended global trade and retaliatory trade duties from China and other nations have hit US exporters like farmers particularly hard.

Soybean shipments from the Port of Los Angeles to China dropped 80 percent last year, Seroka said, adding that the trade did not improve in November or December, following discussions between representatives of the two nations on the sidelines at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

"There's not much that the United States is exporting to China these days," said trade expert Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of Economics, who added that outgoing US shipments of everything from beef and corn to crude oil and coal also fell in 2025.

Closely watched imports to the Port of Los Angeles came in at 421,594 TEUs in January, down 13 percent from the unusually strong result the year earlier, Seroka said.

So far, imports in February appear relatively flat compared with a year earlier. Imports will slow in March due to China factory closures for the Lunar New Year holiday, he said.

Still, Seroka expects total first-quarter volume at the port to fall less than 10 percent versus the year-earlier quarter, when US importers were rushing in goods before President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on countries like China took effect.

"I don't see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that, and even though holiday sales were softer than we would have liked, I don't see a dire situation," Seroka said, referring to lackluster US December retail sales that signaled potential weakness in consumer spending that drives about 70 percent of the nation's total economic activity.

As growth in traditional markets such as the United States and European Union slows, Bangladesh is accelerating efforts to deepen economic engagement with Africa, with total trade nearing $4 billion.

According to data from the Export Promotion Bureau, the Bangladesh Bank and the National Board of Revenue, African exports to Bangladesh stood at $3.76 billion in the fiscal 2022-23, $2.84 billion in FY24 and $2.90 billion in FY25.

During July-January of FY26, imports reached $2.01 billion.

Bangladesh's exports to Africa also show steady growth – $367 million in FY23, $386.5 million in FY24 and $417.7 million in FY25.

Exports during July-January FY26 totalled $271 million.

Major African import sources include Morocco, South Africa, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Mali and Algeria.

Business leaders say Africa offers stronger growth prospects compared to saturated markets in North America and Europe, particularly in IT-enabled services, pharmaceuticals and garments.

South Africa gains strategic importance

South Africa, a member of BRICS, has emerged as a key partner. Bangladesh's High Commissioner to South Africa, Shah Ahmed Shafi, said Pretoria is increasingly important to Dhaka's diversification strategy.

South Africa, with a population of about 63 million and GDP exceeding $400 billion, is Africa's most industrialised economy. KwaZulu-Natal, its second-largest contributor to GDP after Gauteng, has shown interest in Bangladeshi pharmaceutical investment.

Bangladesh's exports to South Africa rose from $119 million in FY23 to $124.2 million in FY25. South African exports to Bangladesh stood at $176 million in FY25.

Total official economic engagement between the two countries surpassed $800 million in FY25, including trade and remittance flows.

Remittances hit record levels

Remittances from expatriate Bangladeshis in South Africa have surged. In FY25, they sent home over $402.9 million. During July-January FY26 alone, remittances reached nearly $395.4 million, setting a new record.

Officials estimate that up to 30% of remittances flow through informal channels. Roughly 4,00,000–5,00,000 Bangladeshis are believed to reside in South Africa, largely engaged in small and medium businesses.

Bankers suggest that with policy support and incentives, Bangladesh's economic engagement with South Africa could reach $1 billion in 2026.

Expanding multilateral engagement

Commonwealth Observer Group Chair and former Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo recently invited Bangladesh to invest in Africa's jute sector.

Meanwhile, South African High Commissioner to Bangladesh Anil Sooklal stressed the need to enhance trade visibility and people-to-people ties. He highlighted pharmaceuticals, education, culture, sports and private sector collaboration as priority areas.

Honorary Consul Md Solaiman Alam Seth said Bangladesh's steady growth, women's empowerment in garments and resilience in disaster management position it well to expand engagement with Africa's rising economies.

MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited, a concern of MEP Group, will invest Tk 200 crore to set up a modern electrical and electronic products manufacturing facility on nearly 10 acres of land at the National Special Economic Zone in Chattogram.

A land lease agreement was signed between the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) and MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited at Beza’s office in Dhaka’s Agargaon today, according to a press release.

The factory will produce electrical wires, switches and sockets, fans, LED lights, circuit breakers, and other related products, aiming to reduce the country’s reliance on imports and expand local manufacturing capacity.

Established in 1974, MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited is a business conglomerate with around 2,000 corporate clients and more than 1,000 distribution networks nationwide.

Construction of the project is scheduled to begin in April 2026 and is expected to be completed by December 2028, with commercial production targeted for January 2029.

Once fully operational, the facility is expected to generate employment for around 2,000 people directly and indirectly.

Saleh Ahmed, executive member for investment development at Beza, said the Tk 200 crore investment by a domestic industrial group would support import substitution, export diversification, and technology-driven industrialisation.

Jahangir Alam Chaklader, managing director of MEP Group, said the project would strengthen local production of electrical goods and contribute to the country’s export prospects in the future.

Currently, around 15 industrial units are in operation at the National Special Economic Zone, while about 20 more are under construction.