Business leaders have warned that unless existing public and private sector barriers to investment and exports are removed, Bangladesh will not be able to fully utilise the opportunities created by the recently signed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan. Otherwise, they said, the agreement risks remaining only on paper.

They made the remarks at a seminar titled "Export Potential Under Bangladesh-Japan EPA: Challenges and Way Forward" organised by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) yesterday (3 March).

Dr AKM Asaduzzaman Patwary, secretary general of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), said a study by the Japan External Trade Organization (Jetro) found that Japanese investors feel there is scope for reinvestment in Bangladesh.

"Despite that, investment has not increased significantly. Last year, only $40 million in investment came," he said.

He added, "We do not want to be complacent about the EPA. We need to identify the roadblocks and take initiatives to resolve them. If these issues are not addressed, the potential of the EPA will remain only on paper."

Mohammad Hasan Arif, vice chairman of EPB, moderated the seminar, which was attended by business leaders and experts from both countries.

Other business representatives highlighted existing challenges to expanding trade with Japan and urged prompt solutions.

Speaking to The Business Standard after the event, Dr Patwary said, "NBR- and customs-related issues, policy inconsistency and bureaucratic complexities are major obstacles to increasing Japanese investment in Bangladesh."

Maintaining product quality in line with Japanese standards is also a key challenge for exporters, speakers noted.

Other speakers echoed the importance of meeting Japanese quality standards. They said Japan offers significant export potential, but without focusing on quality, that potential cannot be realised.

Bangladesh signed the EPA with Japan on 6 February, under which around 7,379 Bangladeshi products will enjoy duty-free access to the Japanese market, while more than 1,000 Japanese products will receive duty-free access to Bangladesh in phases.

Kanchan Miah, managing director of Arot Agro, said his company exports vegetables from Bangladesh to Japan. However, due to the suspension of the direct Dhaka-Narita flight, they are facing difficulties.

He said they used to export about one tonne of vegetables per flight. They have also received orders to export mangoes, and there is potential to export carrots. But with the direct flight suspended, shipping via alternative routes is increasing costs.

He urged the government to take measures to resume the direct flight.

Business leaders also identified language barriers, technological gaps and compliance requirements as major challenges in expanding exports to Japan.

Japan is a significant market for Bangladesh's ready-made garments (RMG). Asif Ashraf, managing director of Urmi Group, a leading RMG exporter to Japan, said, "In Japan's $23 billion apparel market, we are capturing only a very small share. While there is strong demand for man-made fibre garments, we remain stronger in cotton-based products."

He said exporters must have patience to succeed in the Japanese market. "Once trust is established, they will place orders here even if prices are higher."

Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan, president of the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Hajime Suzuki, executive officer of RX Japan Ltd, presented keynote speeches.

Hajime Suzuki, executive officer (Global Relations) of RX Japan, a major Japanese trade show and exhibition organiser, advised Bangladeshi exporters to adopt a three-year strategy to expand exports to Japan.

Global logistics and shipping giant Maersk has suspended all new cargo bookings between Bangladesh, along with three other South Asian countries, and select Gulf destinations, citing operational risks arising from the ongoing Iran crisis and wider instability in the Middle East.

"Effective immediately, we are suspending all new bookings between the Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) and the Upper Gulf markets of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail only)," the company said in an advisory on Monday (2 March).

The move comes as Iran said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.

"The strait [of Hormuz] is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze," Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief, said in remarks carried by state media.

Maersk said it has also halted acceptance of reefer and dangerous or special cargo to and from key Gulf countries until further notice, following a fresh risk assessment.

However, it clarified that this suspension does not apply to other trade corridors.

Maersk said confirmed bookings made before the advisory will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, while cargo already in transit remains under active management.

"Customers will be contacted directly if operational adjustments are required," it said.

Amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, several Gulf states have temporarily closed their airspace and airlines have cancelled or rerouted flights, tightening logistics capacity across sea-air corridors and potentially extending transit times.

The Dhaka stock market suffered its sharpest single-day decline in six years today as escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled global energy markets, raising fears of higher import costs, inflation and broader economic disruption in Bangladesh.

The benchmark Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) DSEX index plunged 208 points, or 3.77%, to close at 5,325 the biggest one-day drop since 9 March 2020, when the index fell 279 points following the outbreak of Covid-19.

The blue-chip DS30 index also slumped 85 points, or 4.01%, to settle at 2,050.

Market breadth remained sharply negative, with 349 issues declining against only 31 advancing, while 11 remained unchanged.

Turnover, however, rose 13% to Tk885 crore, signalling heavy selling as investors rushed to offload holdings. The bourse's market capitalisation shrank by Tk12,800 crore in a single session.

The selloff came as global markets reeled from widening conflict in the Middle East following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The escalation drove up global oil and gas prices, intensifying concerns over energy supply disruptions and their potential impact on import-dependent economies such as Bangladesh.

Moniruzzaman, managing director of Prime Bank Securities, told The Business Standard that the geopolitical conflict has already pushed up global gas and oil prices, raising fears that Bangladesh's import bill could increase significantly.

He warned that any disruption in fuel imports could hamper power generation and industrial output, particularly as the country approaches peak summer demand. A slowdown in industrial activity, combined with higher energy costs, could further exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Against such uncertainty, investors opted for caution, triggering widespread selling across sectors.

He added that trading is likely to remain volatile in the coming sessions, depending on developments in the Middle East and trends in global energy markets.

According to EBL Securities, the market's brief recovery in the previous session was abruptly reversed as panic-driven selloffs swept across the trading floor. Investors were rattled by mounting concerns over the macroeconomic repercussions of prolonged Middle East tensions, particularly the risks of fuel and power supply disruptions in Bangladesh.

Speculation over a possible transition in regulatory leadership further added to the cautious mood, accelerating the market's free-fall, it said.

The turmoil was not confined to Bangladesh. A global equity selloff intensified as surging energy prices raised alarms about the broader economic outlook. Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index fell 2.7% in early trading, following a 1.7% drop a day earlier.

In Asia, markets in South Korea, Japan, India, China and Vietnam also recorded steep losses, according to international media reports.

Energy markets experienced dramatic swings. Benchmark Asian LNG prices surged nearly 40% on Monday, while European wholesale gas prices jumped between 35% and 40%.

US natural gas futures climbed almost 6%. The spike followed reports that Qatar had halted liquefied natural gas production, prompting precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the region. Qatari LNG accounts for roughly one-fifth of global supply.

Bangladesh, which relies heavily on imported fuel, is particularly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Industry officials compared the situation to the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when LNG prices spiked sharply and supply constraints led to prolonged power outages.

Government officials and company executives said they do not expect an immediate supply shock but acknowledged that sustained price increases would strain the economy.

"The real question is where prices will go," one executive said. "Prices could rise manyfold, and frankly, we simply cannot afford that."

Oil prices surged on Monday (2 March) and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar and gold.

Brent jumped 4.5% to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while US crude climbed 3.9% to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1.0% to $5,327 an ounce.

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until US objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz, where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

"The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."

A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary pressures globally, while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree on a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.

"The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974," said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

"That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today's market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable."

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei down 1.4%, with airlines among the hardest hit. Chinese blue-chips went their own way and held steady.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.2%.

And it's a big US data week

In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures shed 1.4% and DAX futures slid 1.3%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both lost 0.6%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The US is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1788.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.1% to 156.25 yen, while gaining on the Australian dollar, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 3.970%, having briefly touched an 11-month low of 3.926%.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly.

Investors also have to weather a squall of US economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 50% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year.

Global oil and gas shipping rates soared, with supertanker costs in the Middle East hitting all-time highs, as the US-Iran conflict intensified after Tehran targeted ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data and industry sources on Tuesday.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, which carries around one-fifth of oil consumed globally as well as large quantities of liquefied natural gas, has ground to a near halt after vessels in the area were hit as Iran retaliated to US and Israeli strikes.

The disruption and fears of prolonged closure have caused oil and European natural gas prices to jump, with Brent crude futures up nearly 10% this week as the conflict triggered multiple oil and gas shutdowns in the Middle East.

The benchmark freight rate for the very large crude carriers (VLCCs) used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China, also known as TD3, rose to an all-time high of W419 on the Worldscale industry measure used to calculate freight rates, on Monday, or $423,736 per day, LSEG data showed.

The rate doubled from Friday, extending gains from a six-year high last week, after the US and Israel attacked Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on Saturday.

In retaliation, Iran has struck Gulf countries, prompting precautionary shutdowns at oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.

The US military's Central Command said the Strait is not closed despite the Iranian statements, Fox News reported.

LNG shipping rates jump

Still, daily freight rates for LNG tankers jumped more than 40% on Monday after Qatar halted its production.

Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43%, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities, a pricing assessment agency for LNG shipping. Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45%, or $12,750, from Friday.

Fraser Carson, principal analyst for global LNG at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said spot daily LNG shipping rates could rise above $100,000 this week on tight supply.

"Vessel availability for the rest of March is considered weak as cargo operators try to work through the backlog created by weather disruptions during February," he said.

"There will be very strong competition for any available vessels," he added.

Until safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be assured, shipping will remain idle, Carson said.

An oil shipbroker who declined to be named due to company policy said it is very difficult to assess shipping rates in the Gulf as several shipowners have suspended operations indefinitely.

South Korean shipping firm Hyundai Glovis said on Tuesday it is preparing contingency plans including securing alternative routes and ports in response to the Middle East conflict.

South Korea's maritime ministry has issued a notice to South Korean shippers with vessels sailing in the Middle East, asking them to refrain from business operations in the region, an official told Reuters on Tuesday.

The ministry is holding a meeting to discuss further safety measures following Iran's threat to attack any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the official added.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh has recommended a 30% cash dividend for 2025, sharply lower than the 300% cash dividend it distributed in 2024.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price fell by 8.94% to Tk242.30 today (3 March) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The company also reported a loss of Tk136 crore in the October–December quarter of 2025, reflecting a sharp deterioration in earnings amid declining cigarette sales and higher operating costs.

In a statement, the company reported a 67% decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the year ended 31 December 2025, as profit came under significant pressure. The significant drop was mainly due to lower turnover and increased operating expenses. Costs rose as a result of inflationary pressures and higher levels of activity in certain parts of the business.

Net operating cash flow fell by 81% compared to the previous year. The decline was largely driven by lower profit and higher cash outflows following an increase in excise duty, although some of the impact was offset by other factors.

In July 2025, the company ceased operations at its Dhaka factory and relocated the plant, machinery, and cigarette manufacturing equipment to its Savar facility. The compulsory site closure, coupled with relocation and restructuring costs, resulted in a one-off negative impact of Tk715 crore on operating profit compared to the previous year.

According to the company's financial statements approved at a board meeting held yesterday (2 March), the multinational tobacco manufacturer posted a loss per share of Tk2.53 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

For the full year ended December 2025, earnings per share stood at Tk10.81, representing a 67% decline year-on-year.

The company has scheduled its annual general meeting for 30 April to seek shareholder approval for the audited financial statements and the proposed dividend. The record date has been fixed for 1 April.

In its price-sensitive disclosure, the company did not offer detailed explanations for the sharp drop in profit and dividend payout in 2025. However, earlier disclosures indicated that business performance came under strain following the closure of its Mohakhali factory on 1 July 2025.

Bangladesh's export earnings remained in negative territory for the seventh consecutive month, as February shipments fell sharply due to weak global demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Exports in February fell sharply to $3.50 billion, down 20.81% from January and 12.03% year-on-year, according to data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) today (2 March).

Total exports in the first eight months of FY26 (July-February) declined 3.15% year-on-year to $31.9 billion.

Ready-made garments (RMG), which account for over 80% of the country's export earnings, dropped 3.73% year-on-year to $25.80 billion during the period.
February alone saw RMG earnings fall 22.1% month-on-month and 13.21% year-on-year, reflecting weaker order flows and shipment volatility. Within the sector, knitwear exports fell 4.56%, while woven garments declined 2.79%.

Experts blame falling US imports on President Trump's tariffs, while aggressive Chinese and Indian exports are undercutting prices in Europe. Weak demand in several countries adds to the strain.

Export analysts warn that the recent US-Israel strikes on Iran and rising geopolitical uncertainties could prolong the export slowdown.

However, exporters also cited multiple challenges behind the contraction.

Inamul Haque Khan Bablu, senior vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told The Business Standard, "Due to Trump's tariffs, US buyers have reduced clothing imports because of uncertainty. Meanwhile, China and India are selling products at lower prices in Europe and other markets, intensifying competition outside the US."

Bablu added that hopes of improvement after Bangladesh's elections have dimmed due to renewed geopolitical tensions, including joint strikes on Iran by the US and Israel.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), emphasised the need for long-term competitiveness. "Bangladesh must increase productivity, reduce interest rates, stabilise energy prices, and maintain competitive exchange rates to remain relevant in global trade," he said.

He also urged initiatives to boost exports in non-traditional markets but noted that current war-related uncertainties may continue to weigh on shipments.

Despite the overall slowdown, several non-garment sectors posted positive growth, signalling gradual export diversification.

According to EPB, Engineering products rose 23.42%, led by electrical products (25.91%) and bicycles (27.40%). Ores, slag and ash exports increased 45.40%, pharmaceuticals grew 6.32%, leather products excluding footwear rose 18.32%, and home textiles posted 2.67% growth. Exports of frozen and live fish edged up 3.62% year-on-year.

However, these gains were not large enough in value terms to offset the contraction in garments, leaving overall export growth in negative territory.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Mostaqur Rahman has directed officials to accelerate efforts to recover laundered assets and place the process under a fast-track mechanism.

The instruction was issued at a meeting held at the central bank yesterday, where the newly appointed governor met the consultant of the Stolen Asset Recovery Task Force, according to Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of BB.

The meeting discussed strengthening the recovery process and ensuring that efforts to retrieve stolen assets from abroad produce tangible results, Khan added.

During the discussion, the governor urged the relevant authorities to quickly take necessary steps to identify, trace and repatriate assets siphoned overseas. To prioritise this effort, Rahman ordered all recovery activities to be placed on a “fast-track” status.

The fast-track mandate aims to speed up the return of national wealth through a more coordinated and focused approach, the spokesperson said.

The initiative also seeks to improve ongoing recovery efforts to ensure they are effective and aligned with bringing laundered assets back to the country.

The governor issued the directive as part of the interim government’s continuing efforts to prioritise the recovery of stolen assets from abroad.

Earlier, the Muhammad Yunus-led government appointed the BB governor as chairman of the task force. Its members include representatives from the Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Financial Institutions Division, Law and Justice Division, Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, and the Anti-Corruption Commission.

The task force also includes the Criminal Investigation Department of Bangladesh Police, the Attorney General’s Office, the Customs Intelligence and Investigation Directorate and the Central Intelligence Cell of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit.

It has taken steps to recover allegedly laundered money linked to 10 major business groups and family members of the ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina.

The groups are S Alam Group, Beximco Group, Summit Group, Bashundhara Group, Gemcon Group, Orion Group, Nabil Group, Nassa Group, Sikder Group and Aramit Group, which is owned by the family of former land minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury.

In August last year, the NBR said it had identified assets worth nearly Tk 40,000 crore in five countries. Based on its internal estimates, the total amount involved, including tax and penalties, is about Tk 16,000 crore, according to the NBR.

India has expressed its willingness to work closely with the new government of Bangladesh to expand bilateral business, economic and investment ties.

Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma made the comments after a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir at his office in Dhaka yesterday.

Speaking to journalists, Verma said the meeting covered a broad range of issues, including the resumption of trade through land ports, transhipment, investment opportunities and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

He emphasised that the discussions were not limited to a single topic but spanned a wide range of sectors.

“The land ports are key to expanding trade between our countries,” Verma said, adding that several land ports have remained closed over the past year, except for Benapole.

He added that India is keen to engage closely with the new government of Bangladesh to strengthen trade, economic ties and people-focused cooperation.

“We aim to work together in a positive, constructive and forward-looking manner based on mutual interest and mutual benefit. We have a very strong trade, economic and business relationship between our two countries,” said the high commissioner.

Minister Muktadir also said the meeting addressed the suspension of trade through some land ports over the last 18 months and discussed ways to increase bilateral trade.

During the meeting, the two sides discussed several trade-related issues and explored a roadmap for future cooperation.

According to state-owned news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS), Muktadir described India as a major economic partner with a GDP exceeding $4 trillion.

He added that bilateral trade currently totals about $11 billion, with Bangladesh importing roughly $9.5 billion and exporting $1.5 billion worth of goods.

While talking to journalists, Muktadir said the government is closely monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

He said that while the strait is a crucial global trade route, there is no immediate threat to the supply of essential commodities or fuel.

The Strait of Hormuz is vital, as around one-fifth of global maritime trade passes through it, the minister said.

“If the strait were to remain closed for an extended period, it would have a major impact on global shipping. However, it is too early to be overly alarmed. The situation may be resolved within a few days.”

He added that the government has applied for a deferment of Bangladesh’s graduation from the group of Least Developed Countries, which will be assessed by the United Nations.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has removed LR Global Bangladesh Asset Management Company Limited as the asset manager of six mutual funds over regulatory violations and alleged mismanagement.

The decision was approved at a recent board meeting of the commission, according to a disclosure published by the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (2 March).

In a statement, the regulator said the action was taken in the interest of investors and to safeguard public funds after its investigation found breaches of securities laws, violations of the Mutual Fund Rules, 2001, and failure to fulfil fiduciary responsibilities.
The affected funds are DBH First Mutual Fund, Green Delta Mutual Fund, AIBL First Islamic Mutual Fund, LR Global Bangladesh Mutual Fund-1, NCCBL Mutual Fund-1, and MBL First Mutual Fund.

Trustees of the respective funds have been directed to initiate necessary legal and administrative measures. Meanwhile, the process to cancel LR Global's registration as an asset manager is underway.

According to the BSEC investigation, funds from the six mutual funds were invested in Padma Printers & Colors Limited, later renamed Quest BDC Limited, at prices higher than the approved rate and without adequate financial analysis.

The commission said the investments violated applicable rules and exposed unit holders to significant financial risks.

The regulator also identified a conflict of interest, noting that a related entity purchased shares of the same company at a lower price, depriving mutual fund investors of potential benefits. In one instance, more than 15% of a single company's paid-up capital was acquired from one fund, exceeding regulatory limits.

In addition, the appointment of a managing director at Quest BDC Limited without prior approval from the trustee or the commission was found to be in violation of the rules.

Since 2022, the investment in Quest BDC has yielded no returns. As the company is listed on the OTC market, the shares are illiquid, making it difficult for the closed-end funds to exit the investment.

Trustees are now assessing options to appoint a new asset manager following the completion of required audits.

The price of gold in Bangladesh has been increased by Tk5,424 per bhori, with the rate of 22-carat gold set at Tk274,104 per bhori from today (2 March), according to the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (BAJUS).

In a statement issued in the morning, BAJUS said the new rates were fixed considering the overall market situation following a rise in the price of pure gold (tejabi gold) in the local market. The revised prices have come into effect immediately.

Under the new rates, 22-carat gold will cost Tk274,104 per bhori (11.664 grams), while 21-carat gold has been priced at Tk261,682 per bhori.
The price of 18-carat gold has been set at Tk224,299 per bhori, and gold of traditional method at Tk183,533 per bhori.

Buyers will have to pay an additional 5 percent government-fixed VAT and a minimum 6% making charge set by BAJUS on the sale price.

However, the making charge may vary depending on the design and quality of jewellery.

The last adjustment to gold prices was made on the night of 28 February, when BAJUS raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk3,266 per bhori to Tk268,680.

So far in 2026, gold prices have been adjusted 35 times in the country, with rates increased on 23 occasions and reduced 12 times.

Silver prices have also been raised this time. The price of 22-carat silver has been increased by Tk175 per bhori to Tk7,173.

Meanwhile, 21-carat silver has been set at Tk6,882 per bhori, 18-carat silver at Tk5,890 per bhori, and traditional-method silver at Tk4,432 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted 21 times, including 14 hikes and seven reductions.

Financing new government's flagship schemes family card and farm-loan waiver cost the exchequer Tk 11.4 billion immediately that has to be managed with from the current national budget.

The government has already allocated a lump-sum Tk 400 million from the country's revenue budget for payouts under the newly evolved "family card" programme during the remaining four months of the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the Finance Division is set to allocate some Tk 11 billion for the waiver of agriculture loans along with cumulated interest of some 1.287 million borrowers as the new government's election pledge is going materialise in no time, officials say.

A study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) estimates that providing family cards to five million rural families with monthly support of Tk 2,000-2,500 would cost the exchequer between Tk 96 billion and Tk 120 billion annually - equivalent to 0.15-0.20 per cent of GDP.

The CPD has recommended adopting a poverty-scorecard method with strong transparency and accountability mechanisms in selecting beneficiaries.

The organisation has also cautioned that fiscal constraints could pose a significant challenge to scaling up the programme.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the CPD, says the family- card concept is appreciable as it is universal in nature.

"The government needs to make the selection process transparent and must ensure the actual beneficiaries for this safety-net scheme," she adds.

Dr Fahmida suggests proceeding with the family-card initiative in phases being fully prepared to list genuine beneficiaries and digitise the database.

Distribution of family card needs good governance.

If the government wants to give family card worth Tk 2000 each to 50 million beneficiaries as it targets, it would need around Tk 120 billion in a year, she says about their estimate.

"The government has to increase tax, cut unnecessary project expenditures, check corruption to ease fiscal pressure," she suggests.

The flagship initiative is scheduled to be launched on a pilot basis on March 10, covering 6,500 families across 14 upazilas. Each selected family will receive directly Tk 2,500 per month through mobile financial services or bank accounts.

As the expenditure was not included in the national budget for FY2025-26 announced by the interim government, the Ministry of Finance has allocated the funds from the "unexpected expenditure" head, says a senior official of the Ministry of Social Welfare.

The allocated amount would cover all expenditures, including data collection and administrative costs, along with family card's Tk 2500 each.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is expected to inaugurate the pilot programme on March 10, 2026.

The Ministry of Social Welfare has already collected data on nearly 50,000 households as part of preparation to issue family cards in phase.

Beneficiaries will be selected using the Proxy Means Test (PMT), a scientific poverty-assessment method used to categorise households from extreme poor to ultra-rich.

Under the pilot phase, priority will be given to households ranging from ultra-poor to lower-middle-class groups.

Officials have said the number of eligible households identified during field data collection is 60-70-percent higher than the figures in the Household Income and Expenditure Survey conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).Bangladesh economic trends

Talking to The Financial Express on Monday, Secretary of the Ministry of Social Welfare Dr Mohammad Abu Yusuf said teams comprising primary and secondary schoolteachers, deputy commissioners and other officials are working relentlessly to complete data collection in the 14 upazilas by March 8.

"In many areas, survey teams had to visit households two to three times, particularly in slum areas where residents could not immediately provide national ID cards or other necessary documents for enlistment," he said.

He added that densely populated slums presented different socio-economic realities compared to BBS survey data.

The pilot programme will cover Dhaka's Banani Korail and Sattala slums, Mirpur Bhashantek, Begunbari, Olimiatek, Pangsha of Rajbari, Patenga, Bancharampur, and Lama in Chattogram, Khalishpur in Khulna, Charfassion in Barishal, Dirai in Sylhet, Bhairab in Mymensingh, Bogura Sadar, Lalpur in Rajshahi, Thakurgaon Sadar and Nabaganj in Rangpur.

Currently, 95 social-safety-net programmes are being implemented by 23 ministries. The total allocation for these programmes in the current fiscal year stands at Tk 1.26 trillion, accounting for 1.87 per cent of GDP.Financial news subscription

Under the family-card scheme, cards will be issued under the name of the mother or the female head of the household.

About financing the farm-loan waivers a senior official of the finance division told The Financial Express Monday that they would make the budgetary allocation this week.

The division's high-ups held a meeting with top officials of 15 banks on the day to check the nitty-gritty of the waiver process, sources say.

According to the officials concerned, the majority of the 1.287 million borrowers set to get the loan and interest waivers are from Bangladesh Krishi Bank, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank, and Sonali Bank.

The waiver is planned on a one-farmer-one-loan-interest-waiver basis, meaning a farmer will not get the facility for more than one loan.

State reimbursement of funds in favour of the banks waiving the farm loans of up to Tk 10,000 each and interest thereof will begin after Eid-ul-Fitr.

The banks will be asked to withdraw the certificate cases filed against the borrowers once the payments are made by the government.City & Local Guides

Another senior Finance Division official told The Financial Express they initially calculated that some Tk 15 billion would be needed for the farm-loan- waiver programme.

But, after scrutinising the information forwarded by the banks concerned, they found that around Tk 11 billion would be required.

In line with the electoral pledges of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the government on February 26 in its first cabinet meeting decided to waive farm loans of up to Tk 10,000 for each farmer.

The initiative was hailed by many as it would free over 1.2 million farmers from longstanding debts.

The money the farmers would have spent to pay loan instalments can now be invested in better-quality seeds or modern irrigation technology, which will increase production, officials say.

পুঁজিবাজারকে দেশের দীর্ঘমেয়াদি অর্থনৈতিক প্রবৃদ্ধি, শিল্পায়ন, অবকাঠামো উন্নয়ন এবং কর্মসংস্থান সৃষ্টির অন্যতম প্রধান আর্থিক খাত হিসেবে বিবেচনা করা হয়। তা সত্ত্বেও দেশের অর্থনীতির আকার যতটা বেড়েছে, পুঁজিবাজারের গভীরতা, প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক অংশগ্রহণ ও বিদেশি বিনিয়োগপ্রবাহ কাঙ্ক্ষিত মাত্রায় বাড়েনি। ফলে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি অর্থায়নের কাঠামো এখনো ব্যাংকনির্ভর। যার কারণে আর্থিক ব্যবস্থায় একধরনের ভারসাম্যহীনতা তৈরি হয়েছে।

সাম্প্রতিক এক বিশ্লেষণে দেখা গেছে, ২০১৫ সালে দেশের মোট দেশজ উৎপাদন বা জিডিপির আকার ছিল ১৯৫ বিলিয়ন মার্কিন ডলার। তা এখন বেড়ে ৪৬০ থেকে ৪৭০ বিলিয়ন ডলারে উন্নীত হয়েছে। এ ছাড়া ২০১৫ সালে ব্যাংক খাতের সম্পদের পরিমাণ ছিল ১০ দশমিক ৩১ ট্রিলিয়ন (এক ট্রিলিয়নে এক লাখ) টাকা। ২০২৪ সালের জুনে তা বেড়ে দাঁড়িয়েছে ২৫ দশমিক ৪১ ট্রিলিয়ন টাকায়। তার বিপরীতে ২০১৫ সালে শেয়ারবাজারের বাজার মূলধন ছিল ৩ দশমিক ২৯ ট্রিলিয়ন টাকা। এখন তা বেড়ে প্রায় ৭ দশমিক ১৪ ট্রিলিয়ন টাকায় পৌঁছেছে। ফলে জিডিপির অনুপাতে বাজার মূলধন প্রায় ১২ শতাংশের নিচেই রয়ে গেছে।

এই বৈষম্য কেবল সংখ্যাগত নয়; এ পরিস্থিতির ভেতরে একাধিক কাঠামোগত ঝুঁকি তৈরি হয়েছে। স্বল্পমেয়াদি আমানতের বিপরীতে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি শিল্পঋণ বিতরণের ফলে ব্যাংক খাতে একধরনের চাপ তৈরি হয়। ব্যাংকিং ব্যবস্থায় কোনো ধরনের চাপ তৈরি হলে তাতে পদ্ধতিগত ঝুঁকিও দ্রুত ছড়িয়ে পড়ে। ঋণশৃঙ্খলা দুর্বল হলে ঋণের অপব্যবহার ও খেলাপির প্রবণতা বেড়ে যায়। শক্তিশালী পুঁজিবাজার না থাকলে বড় করপোরেটদের ওপর সুশাসনের চাপও কম থাকে। তাতে স্বচ্ছতা ও জবাবদিহি বাধাগ্রস্ত হয়। অন্যদিকে পরিবারের সঞ্চয়ও উৎপাদনশীল খাতে বিনিয়োগ না হয়ে অনুৎপাদনশীল খাতে প্রবাহিত হয়।

পুঁজিবাজারের দীর্ঘস্থায়ী দুর্বলতা শুধু সামষ্টিক অর্থনৈতিক সূচকের ওঠানামা দিয়ে ব্যাখ্যা করা যায় না; বরং নেতৃত্ব, প্রতিষ্ঠানিক সক্ষমতার ঘাটতি, নীতির ধারাবাহিকতা না থাকা ও বাজার চাহিদার সঙ্গে নীতি প্রণয়নের সংযোগহীনতার কারণে দীর্ঘদিন ধরে পুঁজিবাজারের ওপর বিনিয়োগকারীদের আস্থাকে ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত করেছে। মূলত কার্যকর একটি পুঁজিবাজার গঠনের শুরুটা হয় সামষ্টিক অর্থনৈতিক স্থিতিশীলতা থেকে। অর্থায়নের একটি অংশকে ধাপে ধাপে পুঁজিবাজারমুখী করা হলে—অর্থাৎ মূলধন বিনিয়োগ, বন্ড, প্রকল্পভিত্তিক ইনস্ট্রুমেন্ট ও ফান্ডের কাঠামো দিয়ে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি তহবিল সংগ্রহ বাড়লে—আর্থিক ব্যবস্থার ওপর চাপ কমে এবং অর্থনীতিতে তহবিল সরবরাহের ভিত্তি আরও বৈচিত্র্যপূর্ণ হয়।

পুঁজিবাজারের দীর্ঘস্থায়ী দুর্বলতা শুধু সামষ্টিক অর্থনৈতিক সূচকের ওঠানামা দিয়ে ব্যাখ্যা করা যায় না; বরং নেতৃত্ব, প্রতিষ্ঠানিক সক্ষমতার ঘাটতি, নীতির ধারাবাহিকতা না থাকা ও বাজার চাহিদার সঙ্গে নীতি প্রণয়নের সংযোগহীনতার কারণে দীর্ঘদিন ধরে পুঁজিবাজারের ওপর বিনিয়োগকারীদের আস্থাকে ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত করেছে।

ঋণবাজারকে শক্ত ভিত্তির ওপর দাঁড় করানো ছাড়া এই রূপান্তর টেকসই হয় না। উন্নত আর্থিক ব্যবস্থায় সরকারি ট্রেজারি বিল ও বন্ড বাজারকে বিনিয়োগকারীদের জন্য একটি গুরুত্বপূর্ণ নির্দেশক হিসেবে ব্যবহার করা হয়। অথচ বাংলাদেশে সরকারি সিকিউরিটিজ মার্কেট থাকলেও সেটি পুঁজিবাজারের সঙ্গে পুরোপুরি সংযুক্ত নয়। এ ছাড়া পুঁজিবাজারের প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক ভিত্তি শক্তিশালী করার ক্ষেত্রে নিয়ন্ত্রক কাঠামোর আধুনিকায়ন একটি পূর্বশর্ত। কার্যকর নিয়ন্ত্রক ব্যবস্থায় নীতিনির্ধারণ, তদারকি, প্রয়োগ এবং বাজার উন্নয়ন—এই চারটি কার্যক্রম একে অপরের সঙ্গে ওতপ্রোতভাবে জড়িত। সেখানে আমাদের পুঁজিবাজারে বড় ধরনের ঘাটতি রয়েছে।

পুঁজিবাজারে প্রযুক্তিনির্ভর নজরদারি ‘গেমচেঞ্জার’–এর ভূমিকা রাখতে পারে। রিয়েল টাইম লেনদেন তদারকি, অ্যালগরিদমিক অস্বাভাবিকতা বিশ্লেষণ, ইনসাইডার ট্রেডিং বা কারসাজি শনাক্তকরণ এবং ডেটা বিশ্লেষণভিত্তিক প্রযুক্তিনির্ভর তদারকি ব্যবস্থা চালু হলে বাজারশৃঙ্খলা স্বয়ংক্রিয়ভাবে শক্তিশালী হয়। একই সঙ্গে মূল্য সংবেদনশীল তথ্য প্রকাশের ব্যবস্থাকে একটি একীভূত ডিজিটাল প্ল্যাটফর্মে আনা হলে তথ্যপ্রবাহ দ্রুত হয় এবং সবাই একই সময়ে একই মানের তথ্য পায়।

পাশাপাশি নীতিনির্ধারণ ও নীতিপ্রয়োগকে কার্যকরভাবে আলাদা করা গেলে জটিলতা কমে। লাইসেন্সিং, ইস্যু অনুমোদন, বন্ড নিবন্ধন, রাইটস ইস্যু ও করপোরেট অ্যাকশন অনুমোদনের ক্ষেত্রে সময়সীমা নির্ধারিত করা হলে উদ্যোক্তা ও ইস্যুয়াররা তাতে নিজেদের মতো পরিকল্পনা সাজাতে পারে। এর ফলে ‘হবে কি, হবে না’—এ ধরনের অনিশ্চয়তা কমে যায়। এক্সচেঞ্জগুলোকে অধিক কার্যকর ও ক্ষমতায়িত করা হলে তাতে বাজার ব্যবস্থাপনার গতি বৃদ্ধি পায়। তালিকাভুক্তি, করপোরেট সুশাসন পর্যবেক্ষণ, অস্বাভাবিক মূল্য আচরণ বিশ্লেষণ এবং বাজার তদারকি—এসব কাজ ধাপে ধাপে এক্সচেঞ্জের হাতে ন্যস্ত করা হলে তাতে নিয়ন্ত্রক সংস্থা উচ্চ ঝুঁকি ও নীতিগত তদারকিতে বেশি মনোযোগ দিতে পারে।

পুঁজিবাজারে প্রযুক্তিনির্ভর নজরদারি ‘গেমচেঞ্জার’–এর ভূমিকা রাখতে পারে। রিয়েল টাইম লেনদেন তদারকি, অ্যালগরিদমিক অস্বাভাবিকতা বিশ্লেষণ, ইনসাইডার ট্রেডিং বা কারসাজি শনাক্তকরণ এবং ডেটা বিশ্লেষণভিত্তিক প্রযুক্তিনির্ভর তদারকি ব্যবস্থা চালু হলে বাজারশৃঙ্খলা স্বয়ংক্রিয়ভাবে শক্তিশালী হয়।

আমাদের পুঁজিবাজারে গুণগত মানের কোম্পানির তালিকাভুক্তি দীর্ঘদিন ধরে কম। অনেক বড় ও লাভজনক প্রতিষ্ঠান শেয়ারবাজারের বাইরে রয়ে গেছে। ফলে শেয়ারবাজারের বাজার মূলধন, তারল্য সরবরাহ বাড়ছে না। এমনকি প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক বিনিয়োগকারীদের জন্য পর্যাপ্ত বিনিয়োগের সুযোগও তৈরি হয়নি। তাই প্রাথমিক গণপ্রস্তাব বা আইপিও ব্যবস্থার সংস্কার, অনুমোদন সহজ করা, আইপিও শেয়ারের দামের যথাযথ মূল্যায়নকাঠামো তৈরি এবং বড় প্রতিষ্ঠানকে তালিকাভুক্তিতে বাস্তব প্রণোদনা দিলে বাজারের পরিধি দ্রুত বৃদ্ধি পাবে। পাশাপাশি ডেরিভেটিভ, হেজিং ইনস্ট্রুমেন্টের মতো পণ্যও চালু করতে হবে।
শেয়ারবাজার
শেয়ারবাজারগ্রাফিকস: প্রথম আলো

ক্ষুদ্র ও মাঝারি বা এসএমই খাতের কোম্পানি তালিকাভুক্তি পুঁজিবাজার উন্নয়নের একটি কৌশলগত স্তম্ভ হতে পারে। উচ্চ সম্পদশালীদের সম্পদ ও করপোরেট ট্রেজারি ফান্ডকে বাজারে সক্রিয় করা গেলে তারল্য ও স্থিতিশীলতা—দুটিই বাড়বে। আইপিওতে প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক ও উচ্চ সম্পদশালীদের অংশগ্রহণের জন্য প্রক্রিয়া ডিজিটাল করা, দ্রুত বরাদ্দ, ব্লক ট্রেডিং সুবিধা ও সুশৃঙ্খল ঋণ জোগানের কাঠামো যুক্ত হলে প্রাইমারি ও সেকেন্ডারি বাজারের গভীরতা বাড়বে। এ ছাড়া বিদেশি মূলধন আহরণে শুধু নীতিগত ঘোষণা যথেষ্ট নয়; বিদেশি বিনিয়োগকারীদের জন্য বাজারে প্রবেশ–পরিচালনা–প্রস্থান, এই তিন স্তরের প্রক্রিয়া সহজ করতে হবে। এ জন্য ডিজিটাল কেওয়াইসি, হেফাজতকারী নিবন্ধন, হিসাব খোলা ও বিনিয়োগের সীমাসংক্রান্ত নীতিমালা সহজ করা দরকার।

পুঁজিবাজারের জন্য করনীতির সমন্বয় একটি গুরুত্বপূর্ণ বাঁক হতে পারে। যখন ব্যাংক আমানতের সুদ আয়, সঞ্চয়পত্র ও অন্যান্য বিনিয়োগ থেকে তুলনামূলকভাবে বেশি সুবিধা পাওয়া যায়, তখন পুঁজিবাজার ও বন্ডে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি বিনিয়োগে আগ্রহ কমে যায়। তাই করকাঠামোকে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি মূলধন গঠনের উদ্দেশ্যের সঙ্গে সমন্বয় করা দরকার। শেয়ার ধারণকালের ভিত্তিতে কর–সুবিধা, তালিকাভুক্ত কোম্পানিকে যৌক্তিক সুবিধা, লভ্যাংশ করকাঠামোর সমন্বয়, দ্বৈত করঝুঁকি হ্রাস এবং বন্ড বা মিউচুয়াল ফান্ড আয়ের করহারে সমন্বয় করা হলে তাতে বিনিয়োগ আচরণ ধীরে ধীরে স্থিতিশীলতার দিকে যাবে। করপোরেট বন্ড ইস্যুর ক্ষেত্রে উৎসে কর ও নিবন্ধন ব্যয় যৌক্তিক হলে ঋণবাজারের অগ্রগতি দ্রুত হবে।

রপ্তানি বহুমুখীকরণের সঙ্গেও পুঁজিবাজার সম্প্রসারণের বিষয়টি সরাসরি যুক্ত। তৈরি পোশাকের পাশাপাশি সিন্থেটিক ফাইবার, রিসাইকেলড টেক্সটাইল, প্রাকৃতিক তুলা ও বিকল্প উপকরণভিত্তিক শিল্পে বিনিয়োগ বাড়লে নতুন শিল্পগোষ্ঠী তৈরি হবে। এসব কোম্পানি তালিকাভুক্ত হলে বাজারে ভালো কোম্পানির সংখ্যা বাড়বে। একই সঙ্গে রপ্তানিমুখী কোম্পানির সুশাসন ও বৈদেশিক মুদ্রা আয়ের স্বচ্ছ প্রতিবেদন বাজারের আস্থা বাড়াতে সাহায্য করবে।

শেয়ার ধারণকালের ভিত্তিতে কর–সুবিধা, তালিকাভুক্ত কোম্পানিকে যৌক্তিক সুবিধা, লভ্যাংশ করকাঠামোর সমন্বয়, দ্বৈত করঝুঁকি হ্রাস এবং বন্ড বা মিউচুয়াল ফান্ড আয়ের করহারে সমন্বয় করা হলে তাতে বিনিয়োগ আচরণ ধীরে ধীরে স্থিতিশীলতার দিকে যাবে। করপোরেট বন্ড ইস্যুর ক্ষেত্রে উৎসে কর ও নিবন্ধন ব্যয় যৌক্তিক হলে ঋণবাজারের অগ্রগতি দ্রুত হবে।

অবকাঠামো অর্থায়নে পুঁজিবাজারের ভূমিকা বাড়ানো হলে অর্থনীতির দীর্ঘমেয়াদি তহবিল সংগ্রহের ভিত্তি নাটকীয়ভাবে বদলে যেতে পারে। বিশ্বের বিভিন্ন উদীয়মান বাজারে দেখা গেছে—অপারেশনাল অবকাঠামো সম্পদ ‘মনিটাইজেশন’ করে নতুন প্রকল্পে মূলধন পুনর্বিনিয়োগের জন্য বড় অঙ্কের তহবিল তোলা সম্ভব হয়েছে। পাশাপাশি সরকারি সিকিউরিটিজ কর্মসূচির মাধ্যমে পরিবার বা ব্যক্তিসঞ্চয়কে রাষ্ট্রীয় উন্নয়ন অগ্রাধিকারে ভালোভাবে যুক্ত করা হয়েছে। এ ধরনের উদ্যোগ নেওয়া হলে তাতে অবকাঠামো অর্থায়নে স্বচ্ছতা বৃদ্ধি পায়। মূল্য নির্ধারণে শৃঙ্খলা আসে এবং নাগরিকেরা উন্নয়ন প্রকল্পের রিটার্নে অংশ নিতে পারে।

এ ছাড়া ক্লিয়ারিং, সেটেলমেন্ট ও ডিপোজিটরি ইকোসিস্টেমের সক্ষমতা পুরোপুরি কাজে লাগানোও জরুরি। অল্টারনেটিভ ইনভেস্টমেন্ট ইন্ডাস্ট্রি (প্রাইভেট ইকুইটি, ভেঞ্চার ক্যাপিটাল, গ্রোথ ফান্ড, হাইব্রিড ফান্ড) উন্নয়ন করলে উদ্ভাবনী প্রযুক্তি, ফিনটেক, কৃষি-প্রসেসিং ও রপ্তানিমুখী শিল্প পুঁজিবাজার থেকে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি মূলধন পেতে পারে। রাষ্ট্রীয় বিনিয়োগ প্রতিষ্ঠানের ভূমিকাও বাজার স্থিতিশীলতায় কার্যকর হতে পারে। তবে সেটি যেন প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক সুশাসন, বিনিয়োগের নীতি, জবাবদিহি ও পারফরম্যান্স–নির্ধারণী কাঠামোর ভেতরেই থাকে। ডিজিটাল অবকাঠামো উন্নয়ন পুঁজিবাজার আধুনিকায়নের একটি মৌলিক পূর্বশর্ত। বাজারকে প্রযুক্তিনির্ভর করলে সিদ্ধান্ত গ্রহণের গতি ও স্বচ্ছতা—দুটিই বাড়ে।

নীতিগত ধারাবাহিকতা ছাড়া বাজারের আস্থা স্থায়ী হয় না। তাই বার্ষিক পুঁজিবাজারের নীতিকে জাতীয় বাজেট, করনীতি ও মুদ্রানীতির সঙ্গে সমন্বয়ের মাধ্যমে প্রণয়ন করতে হবে। সেটি করা গেলে বিনিয়োগকারীরা একটি স্থিতিশীল দিকনির্দেশনা পাবেন। এ ছাড়া ব্যাংক ও পুঁজিবাজারের মধ্যে অর্থায়নের ভারসাম্য পুনর্গঠন জরুরি। দীর্ঘমেয়াদি শিল্পায়ন ও অবকাঠামো অর্থায়নের ভার যদি ব্যাংক বহন করে, তাহলে ঝুঁকি বাড়ে। তার বদলে প্রকল্পভিত্তিক বন্ড, করপোরেট বন্ড এবং সিকিউরিটাইজড ইনস্ট্রুমেন্টের মাধ্যমে দীর্ঘমেয়াদি অর্থায়নের একটি অংশ পুঁজিবাজারে স্থানান্তরিত হলে ঝুঁকি বণ্টন আরও ভারসাম্যপূর্ণ হবে।

সবশেষে বলা যায়, পুঁজিবাজার উন্নয়ন কেবল শেয়ারদরের ওঠানামা বা ক্ষণস্থায়ী তারল্য বৃদ্ধির প্রকল্প নয়; এটি একটি কাঠামোগত রূপান্তর, যেখানে অর্থনীতির প্রবৃদ্ধি, করপোরেট শাসন-মান, নাগরিক সঞ্চয়ের উৎপাদনশীল ব্যবহার, অবকাঠামো অর্থায়নের স্বচ্ছতা এবং আর্থিক ব্যবস্থার ঝুঁকি বণ্টন একসূত্রে গাঁথা থাকে। তাই বাজার উন্নয়নে সমন্বিত কর্মসূচি বাস্তবে দৃশ্যমান হলে পুঁজিবাজার ধাপে ধাপে গভীর, স্বচ্ছ, অন্তর্ভুক্তিমূলক ও দীর্ঘমেয়াদি অর্থায়ন প্ল্যাটফর্মে রূপান্তরিত হবে। তাতে করপোরেট প্রবৃদ্ধি, পরিবার সঞ্চয় এবং জাতীয় উন্নয়ন একসঙ্গে যুক্ত হবে।

লেখক: ব্যবস্থাপনা পরিচালক, লংকাবাংলা সিকিউরিটিজ

Bangladesh has demonstrated notable resilience in navigating recent economic headwinds, with growth expected to strengthen gradually over the next few years, according to Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head of Global Research Asia at HSBC Global Research.

Speaking at an event organised by the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC) in Bangladesh on Monday, Neumann said the bank projects Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.0 per cent in 2026, rising to 5.5 per cent in 2027.

Export value growth is forecast at 4.1 per cent for the 2026 calendar year, reflecting a moderate recovery amid a challenging global environment, he said.

The event, titled "Bangladesh and the World: Economic Prospects for 2026 and Beyond", brought together senior finance professionals, corporate leaders and policymakers to discuss global and regional economic trends and their implications for Bangladesh.

In his keynote address, delivered via Zoom, Neumann observed that Bangladesh has emerged with resilience from the shocks of recent years, including global inflationary pressures, tighter financial conditions and volatility in external demand.

He noted that remittance inflows continue to increase year on year, reflecting growing trust in formal transfer channels. Combined with easing inflation, these trends are expected to support private consumption, which remains a key driver of economic activity.

However, he cautioned that while domestic and foreign investment could pick up modestly following the recent general election, any meaningful acceleration would depend heavily on the new government's ability to restore and sustain investor confidence.

Strengthening law and order, ensuring policy predictability and maintaining macroeconomic stability would be critical in this regard, he said.

Looking ahead, Neumann highlighted Bangladesh's impending graduation from least developed country (LDC) status in November 2026 as a major milestone that also brings fresh challenges.

He stressed that the transition would require renewed efforts to enhance export competitiveness through expanded market access, improved governance and stronger infrastructure.

"LDC graduation underscores the urgency of reforms," he said, adding that Bangladesh would need to move swiftly to secure favourable trade arrangements and diversify its export base beyond traditional products.

He identified a slowdown in global consumer demand as the principal external risk facing the economy, noting that this has been partly driven by tariff measures imposed by the United States.

Such developments, he warned, could weigh on export-oriented sectors, particularly readymade garments.

Against this backdrop, Neumann emphasised the need for Bangladesh to accelerate trade negotiations with the European Union, its largest garment export market.

Ensuring continued preferential or near-preferential market access after LDC graduation would be crucial to sustaining export growth and employment, he said.

With the formation of a new government following what he described as a largely peaceful election, Neumann said the administration now holds a clear political mandate to pursue reforms and deliver the stability sought by citizens and investors alike.

"Facing an extensive reform agenda, the government must demonstrate its commitment to promises made and address the aspirations of the country's young generation," he remarked.

The keynote session was followed by an interactive question-and-answer segment, during which participants raised issues ranging from exchange rate management to investment climate reforms and global financial market trends.

At the event, Jignesh Ruparel, chief financial officer of HSBC Bangladesh, delivered a presentation outlining the HSBC Group's latest global financial results and its international capabilities.

He noted that the group's 161-year history is rooted in its founding mission to facilitate local and international trade.

With a presence in 56 countries and territories, including Bangladesh, HSBC continues to connect customers to opportunities worldwide, Ruparel said.

Kausar Alam, president of the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh, described the CFO connect event as a timely initiative that offered valuable insights into Bangladesh's evolving macroeconomic landscape within a global context.

He said the economy holds significant latent potential, supported by favourable demographic trends and a resilient private sector.

He added that the private sector remains a key driver in Bangladesh's ambition to become a trillion-dollar economy by 2040, provided that structural bottlenecks are addressed and reforms are implemented effectively.

Speaking at the gathering, Md Mahbub ur Rahman, chief executive officer of HSBC Bangladesh, said the bank's strong performance in 2025 reflects the strength of its global network and the trust placed in it by clients.

As Bangladesh enters a pivotal phase of reform and growth, he said, HSBC's role is to connect local ambition with global opportunity.

Through initiatives such as CFO connect, Rahman added, the bank aims to provide a platform for senior finance professionals in Bangladesh to exchange insights, deepen engagement with global trends and strengthen their preparedness for an increasingly dynamic and uncertain economic environment.

The event was attended by chief financial officers, senior executives and stakeholders from both local and multinational companies operating in Bangladesh.

The Dhaka stock market rebounded sharply yesterday, shrugging off a global selloff triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as speculation over a potential change in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) leadership spurred buying interest among local investors.

Market insiders said optimism surrounding the possible resignation of BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood drove the rally throughout the session, even though no official announcement was made.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) jumped 72 points, or 1.32%, to close at 5,534, recovering from a steep 138-point fall in the previous session caused by concerns over the Iran-US-Israel conflict.

The blue-chip DS30 index gained 18 points to settle at 2,135.
Market breadth turned strongly positive, with 340 issues advancing against 42 decliners, while 12 remained unchanged.

Turnover inched up to Tk780 crore, indicating improved participation, and the bourse's market capitalisation rose by around Tk4,000 crore.

A managing director of a leading brokerage told The Business Standard that the rebound was largely sentiment-driven. "The market reacted to a rumour circulating from early trading hours that the BSEC chairman might step down. Investors took fresh positions hoping a leadership change could help restore confidence in a market that has struggled in recent years," he said.

The rumour gained traction following the resignations of several high-profile officials, including the insurance regulator's chairman, the chairman of Sadharan Bima Corporation, and the chairman of Sonali Bank.

The earlier replacement of the Bangladesh Bank governor also reinforced expectations of broader institutional reshuffling.

Although Maqsood did not resign during Monday's session, speculation continued on social media about the possible appointment of a new chairman.

Investors appeared willing to bet on anticipated reforms rather than wait for official confirmation.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury recently hinted at restructuring the securities regulator, noting that sustainable and structural reforms would be necessary for long-term market stability.

Finance ministry officials indicated that the government has already begun searching for a new BSEC chairman and may undertake broader institutional changes to address long-standing weaknesses in the capital market.

On the sectoral front, bank stocks dominated turnover, accounting for 26.5% of total transactions, followed by pharmaceuticals at 16.8% and textiles at 7.9%.

City Bank led the turnover chart with Tk46 crore in transactions, followed by Orion Infusion, BRAC Bank, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, and Bank Asia.

Most sectors closed in positive territory, with financial institutions posting the highest gain at 4.5%, followed by services at 3.1% and travel at 3.0%. Individual gainers included Regent Textile, New Line Clothings, LankaBangla Finance, Olympic Accessories, and BIFC, each surging 10%.

On the losing side were Rahima Food, Information Services, Intech, Grameen Scheme Two Mutual Fund, and ICB Employees Provident Mutual Fund.

The upbeat sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CSCX index rose 76 points to 9,498 and the CASPI index advanced 148 points to 15,500.

Turnover at the port city bourse climbed 52% to Tk19.44 crore.

Bangladesh’s merchandise exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in February, declining 12.03 percent year-on-year (YoY) to $3.49 billion, driven primarily by weakening garment shipments.

For the first eight months of the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), exports dropped 3.15 percent to $31.90 billion, according to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data released yesterday.

BAD PERIOD FOR RMG

Readymade garments (RMG), which account for over 80 percent of national exports, recorded $25.79 billion during July-February, a 3.73 percent decline from the previous year.

February alone saw garment exports plunge 13.21 percent YoY to $2.81 billion, and 22.10 percent month-on-month from January’s $3.61 billion.

Within the sector, knitwear exports fell 4.56 percent to $13.68 billion, while woven garments declined 2.79 percent to $12.10 billion during the eight-month period.

The EPB attributed the export decline to temporary factors including port disruptions, the national election, and subdued global demand. Agricultural products, cotton, jute goods, non-leather footwear, and ceramics all underperformed during the period.

Garment exporters cited multiple headwinds behind the drop in the sector.

Faruque Hassan, managing director of garment exporter Giant Group, identified the United States’ reciprocal tariffs as a major factor for the slowdown over the last few months.

In addition, he said, uncertainty ahead of the February national election prompted international retailers and brands to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the earlier months, slowing order placements.

Strained relations with India, an emerging export market for Bangladesh, have also weighed on performance.

Hassan said he does not expect exports to rebound in March as election-related and other holidays alongside a shorter month of 28 days in February significantly reduced working days.

FEAR OVER IRAN WAR

On top of these, Hassan said the US and Israel’s ongoing war against Iran “will also affect the export of garment items from Bangladesh as the price of oil will also escalate the cost of production in the country.”

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said garment exporters had anticipated a recovery as global supply chains revived.

However, echoing Hassan, he also said a prolonged US-Iran war could derail this optimism as higher oil prices are likely to push up production costs and affect the consumers’ spending capacity.

“The war will increase spending, and consumers will buy less garment items for which shipments from Bangladesh may fall,” he added.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, also warned that the conflict may affect the shipment to Western countries, including the two prime destinations – Europe and the US.

He explained that conflict near the Suez Canal, a vital shipping artery between Asia and the West, could force vessels to reroute via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding nearly 5,000 kilometers to journeys.

This would significantly increase shipping costs and maritime insurance premiums, he added.

“The ultimate sufferers will be the cost of transportation of goods and will also affect the country’s competitiveness in the global supply chain,” Reaz said.

However, BGMEA chief Khan confirmed that so far, no exporters have reported stuck shipments due to the war.

BRIGHT SPOTS

Despite the overall decline, several sectors showed resilience. EPB data shows that pharmaceuticals, home textiles, leather and leather goods, and frozen fish all posted positive growth during July-February.

China emerged as the fastest-growing major export destination, with a 19.12 percent year-on-year increase. The US remained the largest market at $5.87 billion, registering modest 0.74 percent growth.

Defaulted loans in the banking sector fell to around 31 percent at the end of last year, down from around 36 percent three months earlier, following large-scale loan rescheduling under a special policy support of the central bank.

At the end of December 2025, defaulted loans stood at Tk 5,57,217 crore compared with Tk 6,44,515 crore at the end of September, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank (BB).

Within three months, the volume of bad loans dropped by Tk 87,298 crore.

Bankers said widespread rescheduling and restructuring under relaxed terms caused the sharp decline in non-performing loans at the end of the December quarter.

At the end of 2024, bad loans stood at Tk 3,45,764 crore, or 20.20 percent. On a year-on-year basis, defaulted loans rose by Tk 2,11,452 crore, marking a 61 percent increase.

Despite the drop in bad loans, bankers said actual cash recovery remained weak. Some banks had to reschedule loans following the central bank’s instructions.

In January last year, BB formed a five-member committee to provide policy support for restructuring corporate borrowers affected by macroeconomic stress and political instability.

On September 16, the central bank introduced a unified special rescheduling policy aimed at sustaining economic activity and helping borrowers who defaulted due to circumstances beyond their control.

Under the policy, some borrowers were allowed to regularise loans for up to 15 years with a down payment of just 1 percent or 2 percent and a one-year grace period.

During the first nine months of last year, more than 300 companies, including large defaulter conglomerates, applied for rescheduling or restructuring facilities worth around Tk 2 lakh crore.

Bad loans surged to a historic high of 36 percent at the end of September last year after big borrowers such as S Alam, Beximco, AnonTex and Sikder Group defaulted following the fall of the Awami League government in August 2024.

Regarding the reduced figures in December last year, Mati ul Hasan, managing director of Mercantile Bank PLC, said that while defaulted loans have declined, cash flow has not increased.

As many factories and industrial units remain shut, borrowers have been given a one-year grace period. This means banks will not be able to recover funds during this time.

“The true picture will emerge in 2027 when repayments resume,” the senior banker told The Daily Star.

He also said the new government and the central bank governor are encouraging efforts to boost employment and reopen closed factories.

“It remains to be seen whether the coming days will bring positive outcomes,” he added.

Meanwhile, Masrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) and managing director of City Bank, said four factors drove the decline in non-performing loans at the end of December.

Many banks partially wrote off large volumes of bad loans, with some writing off between Tk 300 crore and Tk 1,500 crore.

The second factor was the BB policy support, Arefin said. “Policy support played a role but was not the main driver.”

“Only about 42 percent of the policy support was implemented. In other words, if policy support worth Tk 100 was approved, only around 42 percent was actually executed,” said the ABB chairman.

He labelled recovery drives by banks in December last year as the third factor, which he said helped banks claw back a large chunk of loans.

Besides, he said some loans could not be classified as default due to court stay orders, which also contributed to the decline.

At the end of December last year, bad loans at state-owned banks stood at Tk 1,46,107.59 crore, or 44.44 percent of their total disbursed amounts, according to BB data.

Private commercial banks recorded Tk 3,89,579 crore in non-performing loans, equivalent to 28.25 percent of disbursed loans. Foreign banks held Tk 2,983.77 crore, or 4.51 percent, according to BB data.

Specialised banks reported Tk 18,546.47 crore, or 39.74 percent, in bad loans.

Moinul Islam, former professor of economics at University of Chittagong, said rescheduling loans on overly easy terms is not a lasting solution for reducing bad loans.

The economist said that while such measures may temporarily reduce reported figures, they do not actually solve the underlying problem.

“Strict measures must be taken against defaulters. Separate tribunals should be formed for the top 10 defaulters of each bank in order to recover their defaulted amounts,” he suggested.

After the rescheduling and restructuring, the banking sector now faces a provision shortfall of Tk 1,91,441 crore.

In 1999, bad loans in the banking sector stood at a record 41.1 percent. The ratio gradually declined and reached 6.1 percent in 2011.

Oil prices surged on Monday and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar and gold.

Brent LCOc1 jumped 4.5% to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while U.S. crude CLc1 climbed 3.9% to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1.0% to $5,327 an ounce XAU=. O/RGOL/

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until U.S. objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

"The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."

A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary pressures globally, while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.

"The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974," said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

"That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today's market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable."

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei .N225 down 1.4%, with airlines among the hardest hit. Chinese blue-chips .CSI300 went their own way and held steady.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.2%.

AND IT'S A BIG US DATA WEEK

In the Mid East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 shed 1.4% and DAX futures FDXc1 slid 1.3%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 both lost 0.6%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1788 EUR=EBS.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.1% to 156.25 yen JPY=EBS, while gaining on the Australian dollar AUD=D3, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 3.970%, having briefly touched an 11-month low of 3.926% US10YT=TWEB.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly. .N

Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 50% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year. 0#USDIRPR

European gas prices soared more than 20 percent Monday on fears that the Iran war will cut supplies in the Gulf region, notably exports from Qatar.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, rocketed to 38.885 euros, having earlier gained more than 22 percent.

Despite the surge, the price was below the level it reached in January during the northern hemisphere winter.

Bangladesh's garment exporters' body has instructed its members to suspend new business dealings with an Indian company linked to the Aditya Birla Group after it allegedly failed to clear export dues of $426,830 owed to a Bangladeshi manufacturer.

In a letter to members last month, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) said no new transactions should be undertaken with Styleverse Lifestyle Pvt Ltd and its related entities until the outstanding payment to Ducati Apparels Ltd is settled.

It also warned that no UD or UP certificates should be issued in favour of the company without prior approval from the association.
According to BGMEA sources, Styleverse Lifestyle Pvt Ltd is a sister concern of the Aditya Birla Group, with the Indian conglomerate holding a 51% stake in the company.

Md Khayer Mia, managing director of Ducati Apparels Ltd, told The Business Standard that the Indian buyer had been sourcing products from his company for about two and a half years, initially in small quantities.

In December 2024, Styleverse placed an order for 94,000 pieces of men's joggers and cargo trousers. The goods were manufactured accordingly, and a representative from Mumbai inspected and accepted the shipment. The products were then exported to India through the Benapole-Petrapole land port.

"According to the agreement, acceptance was supposed to be given within five working days after customs clearance, but they did not provide it," Khayer said.

He added that when contacted, the company later raised complaints about product quality. "I offered to visit India and conduct a quality check, but they did not agree."

Styleverse then proposed selling the goods to another customer. "Based on that [proposal], I arranged for resale, but they did not release the products, citing issues related to their brand tags," he said. "Eventually, I decided to take back the goods, but when the company failed to return them, I filed a complaint with the BGMEA after returning to Bangladesh."

"I did so because if the export proceeds do not come into the country, I could face allegations of money laundering, and it may also lead to a violation of the conditions of my bonded licence," he added.

Arbitration call ignored

Following this, the BGMEA sent letters to the company, as well as to the commerce and foreign ministries, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, and the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi.

The association invited Styleverse to Dhaka for arbitration, but the company did not participate and instead sent a legal notice to BGMEA.

Later, the BGMEA issued a letter to all its member factories, instructing them to obtain approval from the association before entering into any new business agreements with the company.

In its letter to members, the garment exporters' body said it had also contacted The Indian Garage Co, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, and Grasim Industries Limited and their representatives, but no progress had been made. Despite repeated requests to join arbitration proceedings, the Indian buyer had not responded positively.

As a result, Ducati Apparels Ltd has fallen into financial difficulty, BGMEA said.

The association advised its members not to enter into fresh contracts with the company or its related entities. It warned that any member ignoring the directive would bear responsibility for potential complications.

Speaking to TBS on the issue, a senior official at the commerce ministry said they have written to concerned officials on the Indian side and were trying to resolve the dispute as soon as possible.

The Aditya Birla Group is one of India's largest multinational industrial groups, with operations spanning metals, cement, textiles, carbon black, financial services, and retail. Its fashion and retail business is managed by Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, which markets several international and in-house clothing brands.

BGMEA said it was seeking cooperation from all concerned to ensure swift recovery of the outstanding dues, describing the matter as urgent.

Ducati Apparels is a concern of the Hyacinth Group and manufactures denim trousers, woven bottoms, and T-shirts for global brands.