Gold rose on Tuesday but stayed on track ‌for its biggest monthly drop in more than 17 years as investors flocked to the dollar as the favoured safe haven amid the Middle East war that has raised inflation fears and bets for hawkish monetary policy response.

Spot gold ​climbed 0.9 percent to $4,550.68 per ounce by 0727 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained ​0.5 percent to $4,580.70.

Bullion has declined more than 13 percent this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008. Prices are, however, up about 5 percent for the quarter, having ​scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29. Prices are down 18.70 percent from record highs.

“Traders are still seeing ​gold through the lens of a value investment at these levels, given where the precious metal was trading just a few months ago. So, it’s a combination of falling oil, a dip in the dollar and attractive buying levels, ​which has propelled gold higher today,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade.

Gold is typically seen ​as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, but the war-driven surge in energy costs is also raising expectations ‌for higher interest rates and boosting the dollar’s appeal as the preferred safe haven.

The dollar was headed for its biggest monthly gain since July, making it as the strongest safe asset, supported by the US status as an energy exporter and investors’ flight to cash over the past month of conflict.

Traders have almost ​completely priced out any chance ​of a US rate ⁠cut this year from about two cuts expected before the war.

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could remain volatile with potential for ​further upside on supply constraints. So, this high oil story, which has plagued ​gold prices ⁠since the conflict began, hasn’t gone away yet,” Waterer said.

Goldman Sachs, however, said it continues to expect gold prices will reach $5,400 per troy ounce by end‑2026 on central bank diversification and Federal Reserve easing.

India’s rupee fell to a record low of more than 95 to the dollar on Monday, before recovering, despite recent efforts by the central bank to stem its fall.

The rupee was among Asia’s worst forex performers in 2025, and its underperformance has continued well into this year, hitting new lows on a regular basis.

Experts say the Middle East war has piled more pressure on the currency, as overseas investors offload Indian shares, and as concerns grow over India’s rising energy import bill and the possibility of a wider current account deficit.

On Monday afternoon, the rupee hit 95.21, down 0.3 percent from Friday’s close, before recovering later to 94.83.

The world’s most populous nation is one of the “most vulnerable economies within Asia to an energy price shock”, analysts at Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.

This has partly caused overseas investors to sell around $12 billion in Indian equities in March so far.

“Foreign outflows from Indian equities could intensify, if the Middle East conflict tightens global financial conditions significantly,” Nomura analysts added.

More significantly, the rupee’s drop comes despite recent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stem the fall, including via aggressive dollar sales.

On Friday, the RBI clamped down on speculation in the foreign exchange market by limiting to $100 million the daily currency positions that lenders can have.

“By capping onshore exposure, the RBI forces unwind ... long-dollar positions, draining speculative fuel from the market,” Raj Gaikar of SAMCO Securities told AFP.

Gaikar, however, added that while the measure worked “in intent”, it is not a “trend reversal”.

“Crude above $100 and persistent FII (foreign institutional investor) outflows remain structural headwinds that no position cap can fully neutralise.”

Weak, Z-category companies dominated the top gainers' list on the Dhaka Stock Exchange throughout March, according to a monthly report by Sheltech Brokerage Limited, raising fresh concerns about market trends.

Analysis of the report shows that share prices of these companies surged sharply without any corresponding improvement in fundamentals, earnings, or price-sensitive disclosures – indicating that the rally was largely driven by speculative demand rather than actual financial performance.

Analysts warn that such trends can distort the market's natural price discovery mechanism and pose risks to long-term stability.

Market insiders said the surge was mainly fuelled by short-term investors seeking quick gains. They channelled funds into low-priced, high-risk stocks, artificially boosting demand and pushing up prices.

The trend was further amplified by speculative trading, where investment decisions were driven by rumours, market trends, and herd behaviour instead of company fundamentals.

Despite ongoing global economic uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict, a segment of investors shifted toward riskier stocks. Weak, closed, and Z-category companies, in particular, attracted heightened interest, as their low prices create the perception of higher return potential with limited capital – appealing especially to retail investors.

ILFSL topped the gainers' list, with its share price doubling by 100% to Tk3.20 during the month. Premier Leasing rose 83.33%, while PLFSL and Fareast Finance gained 76.47% each. FAS Finance advanced 70.59%, and HFL climbed 67.57%.

Other notable performers included Familytex, which rose 54.55%, IFIC First Mutual Fund, which gained 40%, Atlas Bangladesh, up 37.39%, and Peoples Leasing, which increased 34.09%.

Alongside the price surge, trading activity in these stocks also increased significantly. Familytex recorded a 611.99% jump in average turnover, while HFL and Atlas Bangladesh saw increases of 555.51% and 363.23%, respectively – reflecting strong speculative interest in low-priced shares.

Experts have urged regulators to strengthen market surveillance and advised investors to remain cautious. Instead of chasing short-term gains, they recommend focusing on company fundamentals, earnings quality, and long-term prospects when making investment decisions

Indonesia’s leader visited Tokyo this week in Asia’s latest flurry of fuel bartering efforts to offset crippling shortages caused by conflict in the Middle ​East, a key source of regional energy supplies.

The race for alternatives has hotted up as China, the world’s second largest economy, imposed fuel export bans, while nations such as ‌South Korea and Thailand try to exploit the lifting of US sanctions on Russian energy as a stopgap move.

Matters are getting desperate for poorer nations as the Philippines became the first to declare a national energy emergency, Sri Lanka cut its work week to four days and rationed fuel, and Myanmar limited car drivers to alternate days.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy and the world’s fourth most populous country, Indonesia is also expected to announce curbs in coming days.

“To maintain rational economic ​relationships is of vital importance,” President Prabowo Subianto told Japanese business leaders in Tokyo after pacts signed on Monday covering long-term oil and gas and geothermal power projects.

“The geopolitical situation in ​the Middle East gives strategic uncertainty for the security of our energy.”

More immediately, Jakarta could strike a deal to beef up supplies of liquefied natural gas to Tokyo in exchange for liquefied petroleum gas, an essential cooking fuel, Djoko Siswanto, the head of oil and gas regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters on Monday.

While Prabowo and Japan’s Sanae Takaichi agreed ​to boost ties on energy security at a meeting on Tuesday, neither leader confirmed such a swap agreement.

Japan’s government-backed oil and gas producer Inpex is discussing a similar barter deal with India to swap LPG for ​naphtha and crude oil, according to an internal Japanese government document seen by Reuters.

Vietnam has also sought Japan’s help for energy supplies, it showed, while the Philippines said on Monday it had received diesel from Tokyo.

Japan’s trade minister stressed the importance of keeping up fuel supplies to Southeast Asian nations where it has supply chains, but declined to comment on specific deals.

Resource-poor Japan relies on the Middle East for about 95 percent of its oil and 11 of its imports ​of liquefied natural gas, though its energy stockpiles are among the world’s largest.

Australia’s position as a major energy producer and exporter should give it clout in talks with Asian partners for ​supplies of jet fuels that could soon run short, energy analysts said.

The government was engaging with major suppliers such as China, Singapore and South Korea, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said this month.

However, China has banned exports of refined ‌fuel, including jet fuel, to safeguard its economy from energy disruption.

That ban, and another by Thailand, have hit Vietnam especially hard, as the neighbours fill more than 60 percent of its jet fuel needs.

Vietnam’s aviation regulator urged authorities this month to seek additional jet fuel supplies from Brunei, India, Japan and South Korea.

Two-way deals with alternative suppliers should help ease shortages, but a longer war would require concerted efforts, said Hiroshi Hashimoto, senior fellow at Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics.

“If the crisis continues for a prolonged period, Asian countries may need to develop multilateral frameworks to help each other and talk to alternative supply sources.”

Russia could prove to be an unlikely supplier ​for some Asian countries, after the United States issued a temporary waiver of sanctions for its attack on Ukraine.

For the first time in years, South Korea imported Russian naphtha this week, a feedstock critical for making plastics used in everything from automobiles to electronics, and also seeks to secure crude oil, its energy ministry said.

India has stepped up purchases of oil ​from Russia, with which Bangladesh, Thailand and Sri Lanka are also in talks.

It could be challenging to finalise arrangements with Russian oil companies before ​the April 11 expiry of the US sanctions waiver, however, said Janaka Rajakaruna, chairman of Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corp.

Small countries such as New Zealand are keenly aware they could be vulnerable amid a scramble for fuel set to get more frenetic in the next few months.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has spoken by telephone in recent weeks with the leaders of Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea, New Zealand’s three largest suppliers of refined products, as well as with ⁠the head ​of the European Commission.

Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones told Reuters he had also contacted big commodity traders, among others, in the ​effort to shore up fuel supplies.

“Unless you build options, we’re too small to get noticed in a maddening, frenzied search for fuel in another two or three months,” Jones added.

The dollar headed for its biggest monthly gain since July on Tuesday and stands out as the strongest so-called ​safe asset, as war in the Middle East has set oil prices surging, nearly everything else sinking and raised the risk ‌of global recession.

Developed market currencies were broadly steady on the day, with the Japanese yen unchanged at 159.62 per dollar, the euro flat at $1.1472 and the pound 0.14 percent higher at $1.3202 .

But still all three were set for March falls of more than 2 percent. For the euro and pound, that is the largest drop since July, and since October for ​the yen.

The dollar has been supported by the US status as an energy exporter and by investors’ flight to cash over the past ​month of conflict.

The latest news from the war, including a Wall Street Journal report that US President Donald Trump was ⁠willing to end attacks on Iran without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, did little for currencies on Tuesday, but did underscore their monthly moves.

“The ​lack of a clear plan to reopen the Strait continues to pose upside risks to global energy prices,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

“The ​potential for a bigger hit to growth outside of the US continues to encourage a stronger US dollar,” he said.

Asian currencies have suffered some of the largest losses and, on Tuesday, the dollar pushed 1 percent higher against South Korea’s won , to 1,534 won, levels touched only in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Asian ​financial crisis in 1997 and 1998.

The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six main peers, touched its highest since last May at 100.64 and, ​last sitting at 100.47, is up 2.8 percent through March.

Bangladesh Bank has decided to introduce an Islamic interbank money market within the current fiscal year to provide Shariah-compliant banks with a structured platform for managing short-term liquidity.

At present, Islamic banks are unable to borrow through the conventional call money market due to Shariah restrictions, often leaving them under pressure during liquidity shortages.

The proposed market is set to create an alternative funding mechanism, making liquidity management more efficient. It will be open not only to full-fledged Islamic banks but also to conventional banks operating Islamic branches and windows.

To develop the framework, the Bangladesh Bank has reviewed international practices, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Bahrain, where Islamic interbank money markets are well-established. The central bank has also engaged with its counterparts in these jurisdictions.

Under the proposed system, transactions will be allowed for tenors of 1, 7, 14, 28, 90 and 180 days. Both collateralised and uncollateralised borrowing options will be available. The central bank has already circulated a policy outline among commercial banks.

An earlier attempt to introduce a similar interbank arrangement for Islamic banks in 2011 failed to gain traction. The renewed initiative is part of broader efforts to strengthen liquidity conditions in the sector.

Conventional banks can easily manage liquidity shortages by borrowing from the call money market. The initial plan to establish a similar interbank market for Islamic banks was conceived during the tenure of former governor Ahsan H Mansur.

A positive sign for the sector

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, noted that the absence of an interbank mechanism had often forced Islamic banks to seek funds outside Shariah-compliant frameworks.

"Once introduced, Islamic banks will be able to transfer funds among themselves, which is a positive development," he said.

He added that banks with surplus funds would be able to lend to those facing shortages, easing temporary liquidity constraints. "Currently, some Islamic banks rely on borrowing from other banks or receive special support from the central bank due to the lack of suitable financial instruments."

A senior official at a Shariah-based bank said, "Islamic institutions cannot borrow from conventional banks or access central bank liquidity through repo operations. While they can raise funds through Islamic sukuk, the volume remains insufficient compared to demand."

What Islamic banks do now

At present, Islamic banks rely on several mechanisms to manage liquidity. These include the Islamic Bank Liquidity Facility, where sukuk must be provided as collateral to obtain support from the central bank.

They also use the Bangladesh Government Islamic Investment Bond, where banks with surplus funds place deposits for three- and six-month tenors. However, this fund is currently inactive due to a lack of available resources.

In addition, Islamic banks manage liquidity through interbank deposits based on mudaraba principles, offering profit-sharing returns. In times of cash shortfall, banks often rely on deposits from peer institutions to bridge gaps.

According to a senior Bangladesh Bank official, the proposed interbank market will provide a more organised platform for liquidity management without direct intervention from the central bank, although it will remain under regulatory monitoring.

The platform will also help the central bank better assess liquidity demand and supply within the Islamic banking segment, an area that is currently difficult to track accurately.

What the new system will offer

Industry insiders believe the new system will increase flexibility in fund management. Banks facing short-term deficits, such as overnight imbalances in current accounts, will be able to borrow from other Islamic banks instead of depending solely on the central bank.

However, concerns remain regarding newly formed or financially weak banks. A senior official noted that such institutions may initially struggle to attract funds from the interbank market due to concerns over repayment capacity and limited income streams.

The managing director of a bank said the implementation of this system would enhance flexibility in fund transfers among Islamic banks. Rather than relying solely on the central bank for short-term fund management, banks would be able to source liquidity from their peers, he said.

"If a bank's current account suddenly turns negative, it could borrow overnight from another bank to return to a positive balance, thereby significantly expanding the options available to these institutions," said the banker.

However, a senior Bangladesh Bank official noted that it will be challenging for Sammilito Islami Bank to secure interbank loans immediately following its formation. There is an underlying concern regarding whether funds lent to this newly established institution would be recoverable, he said.

Not a long-term solution

Experts have cautioned that the initiative should not be viewed as a long-term solution. A former managing director of a private Islamic bank said that while the interbank market can help manage short-term liquidity pressures, it cannot resolve deeper structural issues, including those arising from financial irregularities.

"If mismanaged, using interbank funds to address long-term crises could backfire," he warned, emphasising the need for strong central bank oversight to ensure proper utilisation of borrowed funds.

Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited has sought the recovery of nearly Tk10,000 crore owed by five Shariah-based banks, raising the issue during a meeting with Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman on Tuesday (31 March).

The meeting was held at the central bank's headquarters at 11:30am, where the governor met the bank's board. It was attended by the bank's chairman, board members, the managing director and other senior officials.

According to sources, Islami Bank Bangladesh Chairman M Zubaidur Rahman urged the prompt recovery of outstanding dues during the discussion.

Sources said Islami Bank also has dues pending from state-owned Janata Bank Limited. In addition, the bank informed the central bank that around Tk1,000 crore in remittance incentives remains pending and requested the release of the funds from Bangladesh Bank.

The lender also sought regulatory support in recovering large loans, relaxation in provisioning requirements under special circumstances, and guidance on maintaining relations with major industrial groups.

In response, Moshtaqur assured the board that the issues would be examined seriously and that decisions on support would be communicated soon, while also pledging full support for smooth operations.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard that the governor also asked about the bank's operational challenges and instructed relevant departments to review the matters.

The discussion comes as Islami Bank continues efforts to recover from a prolonged governance crisis.

On 17 February, Bangladesh Bank removed board member Md Abdul Jalil and appointed accountant SM Abdul Hamid in his place.

From 2017 until August 2024, before the fall of the Awami League government, the bank was effectively controlled by the S Alam Group.

During that period, nearly Tk1.2 lakh crore was withdrawn under various names and roughly 10,000 officials were irregularly appointed, pushing the bank into a deep crisis.

After the interim government assumed office in 2024, the bank's board was restructured, with several senior officials leaving the country. Md Abdul Jalil was later appointed to the reconstituted board.

Tuesday's meeting marked Governor Moshtaqur's second discussion with the board.

During the first meeting, he noted that Islami Bank had once been a strong institution but had suffered governance lapses in recent years. He also assured full support from the central bank to restore stability, stressing that the bank must not serve the interests of any single group, political party or family.

Meanwhile, A report submitted by Bangladesh Bank to the Anti-Corruption Commission alleged that the S Alam Group had taken nearly Tk1.9 lakh crore in loans from four of the eight banks it controlled.

Of that amount, Islami Bank alone accounted for about Tk1.05 lakh crore.

The Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit reported that more than Tk93,000 crore was laundered through fraudulent companies.

According to the findings, Saiful Alam Masud, head of the S Alam Group, and related entities used their influence to secure the loans either directly or through intermediaries.

The government on Tuesday (31 March) approved the procurement of 1 lakh tonnes of refined diesel from Kazakhstan at a competitive rate of $76.41 per barrel to safeguard domestic supply against a volatile global market triggered by the Iran war.

The procurement from ExxonMobil Kazakhstan INC comes as Bangladesh secures a strategic diplomatic opening with the United States.

During a high-level meeting on 11 March at the Secretariat, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury urged US Ambassador Brent T Christensen to grant Bangladesh temporary waivers for Russian oil imports, similar to the exemptions currently enjoyed by India.

Following the meeting, the finance minister confirmed that the request to support the national economy and ensure steady fuel supplies had been forwarded to the relevant authorities in Washington.

The decision to procure diesel from Kazakhstan was made at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase, chaired by the finance minister, as Bangladesh moves to secure fuel supplies amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions.

Case-by-case implementation

A senior Energy Division official told TBS that the US government has responded positively to the proposal by Bangladesh to purchase oil from Kazakhstan.

Washington is now providing feedback on a "case-by-case" basis, allowing Bangladesh to import from specific suppliers and ports that may have Russian associations without breaching international sanctions, he said.

ExxonMobil Kazakhstan, while operating in the Caspian region, often involves projects with Russian links; however, the firm currently adheres to US-mandated compliance standards.

This cooperative stance from Washington enabled the government to approve the $76.41 per barrel deal, which is significantly lower than other market offers.

The government remains cautious regarding new suppliers. Officials noted that while some firms have offered diesel even at lower rates, those deals were not pursued after the US authorities expressed concerns via the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington.

Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told this newspaper that ExxonMobil expressed confidence in the Bangladeshi market through its own internal reviews.

A "Notification of Award" is set to be issued today (1 April), with the high-quality, low-sulphur diesel expected to reach the country within 15 days of the contract signing and Letter of Credit (LC) opening, he said.

Two more fuel import proposals

In addition to the Exxon Mobil Kazakhstan deal, the committee approved two more fuel import proposals. One involves the purchase of 60,000 tonnes of refined diesel at $221.08 per barrel (including a $5.33 premium) from Indonesia's PT Bumi Siak Pusako Zapin under a government-to-government arrangement.

The other allows for the import of 1,00,000 tonnes of crude oil at $137.14 per barrel (including a $15 premium) from Malaysia-based Abeer Trade and Global Markets via the direct procurement method.

Meanwhile, three additional fuel import proposals were withdrawn at the meeting due to various inconsistencies.

Not guaranteed yet

However, officials cautioned that not all approved deals materialise, as some suppliers fail to meet conditions such as providing performance guarantees. The government has maintained a strict stance against opening letters of credit without such guarantees.

An official from the Energy Division said, "Several companies have yet to deliver fuel, despite receiving approval from the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase."

BPC to invite tenders for new fuel suppliers

To enhance supply security and ensure competitive pricing, BPC plans to expand its pool of suppliers by inviting new participants, with several international firms already expressing interest in entering the Bangladeshi market.

The BPC is set to publish a notice within this week to enlist new suppliers. This initiative aims to diversify BPC's sourcing of fuel oils and secure more competitive pricing.

According to the BPC chairman, at least 20 international companies have already expressed interest in supplying fuel to Bangladesh. Consequently, BPC has decided to expand its pool of enlisted suppliers, a move expected to make the procurement of both refined and crude oil more efficient, transparent, and competitive.

Currently, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company are the only listed suppliers of crude oil. For refined fuel, nine companies are currently registered.

No fuel price hike for April

Meanwhile, the government on Tuesday decided to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments.

Officials said the decision not to raise fuel prices was taken after considering multiple factors, particularly the inflationary pressure across sectors that would heavily impact consumers.

Another key concern is the uncertainty in the global energy market.

Officials said the government thinks any increase in diesel prices would have an immediate and widespread impact on daily life.

"If transport costs were to surge, that would trigger fare hikes and commuter frustration. The ripple effects would quickly spread to kitchen markets and grocery stores, fuelling a broader price spiral," said an official.

Bangladesh’s remittance inflows have reached a historic high, recording US $3.62 billion in the first 30 days of March 2026.Bangladesh economic report

This surge, fueled by expatriates’ increasing transfers ahead of the Eid-ul-Fitr celebrations, has pushed the foreign exchange reserves to a robust $34.05 billion.

The March figure marks a significant 10.7 percent growth compared to the $3.27 billion received during the same period in 2025. This record-breaking performance in March 2026 contributes to an exceptional trajectory for the current fiscal year (FY 2025-26).

Cumulative remittance from July 2025 to March 28, 2026, has reached $26.07 billion, a staggering 19.8 percent increase over the $21.76 billion recorded during the corresponding period of FY 2024-25. Central bank officials attribute this record-breaking trend to the government’s 2.5 percent cash incentive on formal banking channels, which has effectively discouraged the informal “hundi” system.

Bolstered by the influx of foreign currency, Bangladesh’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.05 billion as of March 30, 2026. Under the IMF’s BPM6 manual, the reserves stood at $29.35 billion. This is a slight adjustment from mid-month figures, where gross reserves peaked at $34.22 billion on March 16.

The surge was most concentrated in the first half of the month, with expatriates sending home $2.20 billion in just the first 14 days—a 35.7 percent jump compared to the previous year. Industry insiders noted that Non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs) traditionally ramp up transfers during Ramadan to support family festival expenses, providing a vital seasonal boost to the national economy.

Economists suggest that if this momentum continues, total remittance for FY 2025-26 will likely surpass all previous annual records. Such a milestone would further stabilize the exchange rate of the Taka and ease pressure on the country’s balance of payments amidst ongoing global economic volatility.

The US national average retail ​price of gasoline crossed $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, data ‌from price tracking services GasBuddy showed, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.

The $4 per gallon milestone was last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and represents what some analysts have called a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for many goods are climbing, including oil ​used to make gasoline, following Iran's essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade chokepoint.

Surging fuel prices ​have started to weigh on US household finances, which were already grappling with rising costs. They have ⁠also become a political headache for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, as they campaign ​to hold onto thin majorities in the US Congress.

Trump had vowed to lower energy prices and ramp up US oil and gas ​production. But so far, much of his second term has been marked by volatile markets, geopolitical turmoil and shifting policies on issues such as tariffs.

US national average retail gasoline prices have climbed about $1.06 a gallon, or 36 percent, since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.

“A sudden outbreak of ​war leads to a spike in US gasoline to $4.00 per gallon. That describes the current Iran conflict - and also Russia’s invasion ​of Ukraine in 2022. Then, as now, oil prices soared around the world, and emergency oil stockpiles were tapped. But we envision this crisis being ‌shorter: ⁠whereas gas stayed above $4.00 for 23 weeks in 2022, we expect prices starting to cool in the next few weeks,” said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov.

Still, pump prices could climb further if crude oil prices continue to surge. US oil futures have surged since the war began, settling at $102.88 a barrel on Monday, up $3.24. They jumped over $3 in Asian trading after Kuwait said an oil tanker was attacked ​at a Dubai port.

The Trump ​administration has taken steps to ⁠assuage the rise in energy prices as the war has dragged on, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other ​goods between US ports. Industry insiders expect it to have only a marginal impact on price ​increases.

The war in Iran has knocked the global economy off the path to growth, according to the OECD.

High gasoline prices ⁠are already squeezing US household finances. Some 55 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said their household finances had taken at least "somewhat" of a toll from the increases in gas prices. Among those seeing an impact, 21 percent said their finances were affected "a great deal."

“The key issue is ⁠not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” Jeremy Siegel, economist at WisdomTree, said in a note.

“That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

The government is set to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD).

In recent days, authorities concerned had been considering a partial alignment of domestic fuel prices with global trends, which would have led to a price increase.

However, the move has now been shelved in view of mounting public hardship, officials said.

Fuel stock remains stable as nationwide drives intensify against illegal hoarding

Sources at the energy division confirmed that, even with a significant subsidy burden, the government is leaning towards maintaining existing prices for the month of April.

A circular has been issued this evening, to this end, stating that based on the "Fuel Pricing Guidelines", the government has determined and approved the consumer-level retail prices for fuel.

The price of diesel remains at Tk100 per litre, octane at Tk120 per litre, petrol at Tk116 per litre, and kerosene at Tk112 per litre.

The circular further states that these prices remain unchanged and will continue to be effective from 1 April.

The notification was signed by Enamul Huq, senior assistant secretary of the EMRD, and was addressed to the chairman of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

Yesterday, the EMRD had said the government was reviewing proposals from state-owned distributors to adjust fuel prices, while simultaneously assessing the subsidy implications under multiple pricing scenarios.

"We have received the proposal from distributors regarding a fuel price adjustment. We are now examining it carefully," EMRD Joint Secretary Monir Hossain Chowdhury told a press conference at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

The discussion on hiking fuel prices comes in the face of a global crisis stemming from the Middle East war. In order to cope with energy shortages, prices have increased in many neighbouring countries, and some countries have even shut down educational institutions due to energy shortages.

Earlier, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said keeping fuel prices unchanged in the country, despite their rise in international markets following the Middle East war, was a major success of the government.

The government has reiterated that Bangladesh faces no actual fuel shortage, even as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, maintaining that supply remains stable and manageable with plans underway to build longer-term reserves, including a 90-day fuel stock.

Officials stressed that recent supply pressures are largely the result of hoarding by a section of traders, creating artificial scarcity rather than reflecting real deficits.

Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud said that supply constraints at times were due to logistical delays rather than a lack of fuel. "There is enough fuel… people will get it, but they should not buy more than necessary," he said, urging consumers to avoid panic purchases.

State Minister for Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Anindha Islam Amit said that long queues at filling stations were caused by a sudden spike in demand.

He urged consumers to avoid stockpiling, reassuring them that both fuel and electricity remain stable.

The state minister said around Tk167 crore is being spent daily to stabilise fuel prices and ease public suffering, as any price hike would immediately increase electricity tariffs, transport fares and food prices.

Recent fuel arrivals

Early today (31 March), a Panama-flagged vessel, PVT Solana, carrying 30,000 tonnes of diesel from Malaysia, berthed at Chattogram Port, marking the eighth fuel shipment to arrive this month.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) confirmed that the diesel may be unloaded either via lightering or directly at the dolphin jetty, with final arrangements pending.

Another vessel carrying a similar quantity is expected on 3 April, while a ship transporting around 70,000 tonnes of LNG is due on 4 April. Over the past month, 33 vessels have docked, including 15 carrying fuel oil, eight with LNG, and nine transporting LPG.

Officials said that Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation plans to boost diesel imports from India's Numaligarh Refinery, while Petrobangla has secured nine LNG cargoes for April.

Govt plans strategy to battle crisis

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obead Islam outlined the government's multi-pronged strategy to secure an uninterrupted fuel supply and strengthen reserves.

Bangladesh is actively engaging with multiple countries – including Saudi Arabia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia – to ensure continued imports.

Several consignments are expected in April under existing agreements and memorandums of understanding.

On fuel imports from Russia, the state minister said the issue of sanctions requires procedural considerations, including engagement with the United States, adding that the relevant ministries are in discussions to resolve such matters.

"There is no fuel crisis at the moment. We have sufficient reserves, and efforts are underway to strengthen our stock further," she said, emphasising that traders creating artificial pressure must be addressed strictly.

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal (2026-27) could erode by around one percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the West Asia conflict persists through the next fiscal, consultancy firm Ernst & Young report said.

The EY Economy Watch report said several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilisers and cement could be directly impacted.

Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances, the report added.

It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilisers and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and energy.

EY, in its February report, projected India's GDP could be between 6.8% and 7.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal.

The Indian government has already set up a Rs1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund to act as a financial cushion against global headwinds.

Dove soap maker Unilever has implemented a global hiring freeze "at all levels" that will last at least three months, citing the effects of the widening conflict in the Middle East, according to a memo seen by Reuters.

In the memo, sent to staff late last week and previously unreported, Unilever said the freeze would take effect immediately and was made with an eye on the "significant challenges" from the month-old Iran war.

Firms globally from airlines to retail are scrambling to buttress themselves from the effects of the Iran war, which has snarled global trade flows and resulted in the worst-ever disruption of oil-and-gas supplies in history. The rapid surge in energy costs is already surfacing in other markets, slowing production in industries like chemicals and plastics.

"Macro economic and geopolitical realities, especially the Middle East conflict... bring some significant challenges for the coming few months," Fabian Garcia, head of Unilever's personal care business, wrote in the memo sent to staff.

"With this in mind, the Unilever Leadership Executive team has agreed a global recruitment freeze at all levels. This will be effective immediately and last for a minimum of three months."

The London-based consumer products giant owns some of the world's most prominent brands. While it produces most of its goods where it sells them, it buys chemicals, food, packaging and other raw materials that are energy-intensive to create.

Unilever, in a statement, said that due to the "uncertain external environment, we have decided to put in place a temporary pause on our recruitment," adding that it will "always adjust our plans as necessary."

Unilever was already cost-cutting

The freeze comes on top of an existing cost-cutting programme Unilever has had in place since 2024, meant to save around 800 million euros ($916.72 million) in costs over the next three years. The changes Unilever proposed then were expected to affect around 7,500 jobs globally, mostly office-based.

The firm's current headcount of 96,000 is down from the roughly 149,000 people it employed in 2020.

The company has struggled to grow sales volumes across its businesses in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is now in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick & Company, it said on 20 March.

Under the proposed combination, which would mark a major shake-up under CEO Fernando Fernandez, the British group's shareholders would likely keep a majority stake in the new entity, Reuters reported late last week.

Shares of Unilever rose 1.1% in London trading Monday.

Green Delta Insurance PLC has declared a 27% cash dividend for shareholders for the year ended 31 December, 2025.

The announcement was made at the company's 40th annual general meeting, held on 31 March, 2026 through an online conferencing and broadcasting platform.

The meeting was attended by sponsors, directors and shareholders. Company Secretary Md Oliullah Khan, FCS, conducted the AGM with the permission of Chairperson Shamsun Nahar Begum Chowdhury.

The chairperson thanked the shareholders for their continued support and cooperation in the company's growth. She also congratulated members of the Green Delta family for their sincere efforts to ensure uninterrupted customer service and smooth business operations during the economic challenges faced by businesses.

Farzanah Chowdhury, managing director and CEO of Green Delta Insurance, thanked shareholders for their support in helping the company maintain its leading position in the industry. She also expressed gratitude to the team for pursuing excellence amid the difficult economic conditions of 2025.

She expressed optimism about the company's future, citing its diverse service portfolio, digital solutions, automated customer service, agriculture insurance and microinsurance. She also pledged to continue innovation and deliver best-in-class service to ensure financial stability and sustainable growth.

Founding Managing Director Nasir A Choudhury also addressed the shareholders and thanked them for their continued support.

A large number of shareholders joined the online AGM and appreciated the board of directors and management of Green Delta Insurance PLC for the company's performance, corporate governance, dividend declaration and informative annual report for 2025.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) yesterday approved the import of another 2.6 lakh tonnes of fuel oil, as the government moves to safeguard national energy reserves against the backdrop of the US-Israel war on Iran.

The committee authorised the direct purchase of 1 lakh tonnes of crude oil from Abeer Trade & Global Markets. The government opted for a direct procurement route, bypassing the standard competitive tender process, citing urgent domestic energy requirements amid the continuing US-Israel war on Iran.

The conflict has introduced significant uncertainty into global oil shipping corridors, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of Asia-bound crude transits.

To mitigate supply chain risks, the government is also diversifying fuel imports as traditional shipping routes face disruption and fears of nationwide shortages grow amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The CCGP yesterday approved the import of one lakh tonnes of EN590-10 PPM ultra-low sulphur diesel from ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Inc (EMKI) via direct purchase.

A further 60,000 tonnes of 0.5 percent sulphur gasoil (diesel) will be imported from Indonesia’s state-linked PT Bumi Siak Pusako Zapin (BSP Zapin) under a government-to-government (G2G) framework.

Earlier on March 26, the government authorised the emergency purchase of 3 lakh tonnes of diesel following two proposals from the Energy and Mineral Resources Division.

Before that, on March 22, the government wrote to the United States, requesting permission to import up to 6 lakh tonnes of refined fuel from Russia or, alternatively, to obtain a waiver for at least two months, according to the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

Since the war started, Bangladesh has also received some 17,000 tonnes of diesel from India under an existing arrangement. Two additional shipments, each estimated at around 6,000 tonnes, are expected from Indonesia.

For the agriculture sector, the CCGP yesterday approved the import of 35,000 tonnes of MOP fertiliser from Russia’s JSC Foreign Economic Corporation (Prodintorg).

The procurement, to be implemented by the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), is valued at Tk 154.89 crore, with each tonne priced at $360.53.

While 10 proposals were placed before the committee, several, including the procurement of pulses and telecom equipment for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, were withdrawn.

Meghna Bank PLC has moved to auction a mortgaged property owned by PFI Securities Limited to recover defaulted loans totaling Tk49.18 crore.

In a public notice, the bank said the auction will involve a commercial property in Dilkusha, a prime business area in Dhaka under Motijheel police station.

The asset includes around 6.60 decimals of land and a nine-storey building, which also houses the PFI Securities office.

Interested buyers have been invited to submit bids by 15 April, along with required documents and earnest money deposits. The highest bidder, subject to meeting all conditions, will secure the purchase.

The bank said the auction is part of its effort to recover non-performing loans, highlighting growing pressure on financial institutions to maintain asset quality. Auctions of mortgaged assets have become a common mechanism amid rising defaults in the sector.

Attempts to reach Kazi Fariduddin Ahmed, managing director of PFI Securities, for comment were unsuccessful.

Established in 1997, PFI Securities operates as a stock dealer and brokerage firm, and is a member of both the Dhaka and Chattogram stock exchanges.

It is also an associate of Prime Finance and Investment, which holds a 46.15% stake in the company.

The firm has faced regulatory issues in recent years. In November 2023, the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited temporarily suspended its depository participant operations over unpaid fees, though the matter was resolved shortly after. In 2018, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange

Commission fined the company Tk25 lakh over irregularities related to consolidated customer accounts and stock market investments.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the issuance of an Orange bond, the first of its kind in the country, by SAJIDA Foundation to raise Tk 158.5 crore to finance women’s economic empowerment and accelerate progress towards gender equality.

The zero-coupon bond, a debt instrument that pays no interest but is sold at a deep discount, marks a major milestone in Bangladesh’s capital market evolution, said a press release from BRAC EPL Investments Ltd.

SAJIDA Foundation partnered with BRAC EPL Investments Ltd and Impact Investment Exchange (IIX), the Singapore-based global impact investing platform, to issue the Orange bond, a specialised investment tool designed to raise money specifically for empowering women, girls, and gender minorities while tackling climate change.

Some 48 percent of the proceeds will be allocated to food security and agriculture, 32 percent to women-led SMEs, and 20 percent will be used for climate-resilient housing across 36 districts
“The pioneering bond supports the transition toward more inclusive, resilient, and capital market-driven development finance solutions, and contributes to broader efforts to develop the impact investment ecosystem in Bangladesh,” said the press release.

BRAC EPL Investments Ltd said Bangladesh’s bond market has long been dominated by government securities and bank subordinated debt.

This transaction breaks that mould by introducing thematic, impact-linked fixed income as a new asset class.

The bond offers investors tax-exempt financial returns while enabling measurable social impact, particularly in supporting women and women-led businesses.

Some 48 percent of the proceeds will be allocated to food security and agriculture, 32 percent to women-led SMEs, and 20 percent will be used for climate-resilient housing across 36 districts.

“Impact will be tracked through independently verified annual reports aligned with international standards, ensuring transparency and tangible benefits for women’s economic empowerment.”

Major blue-chip stocks, typically seen as market anchors, led March's decline, with BRAC Bank and British American Tobacco Bangladesh among the hardest hit as global uncertainty weighed on Bangladesh's market.

According to "Monthly Market Wrap: March 2026", published by Sheltech Brokerage Limited, both blue-chip and mid-cap stocks dominated the list of top decliners. BRAC Bank posted the steepest fall, dropping 23.43% month-on-month to close at Tk67, while BAT Bangladesh lost 19.35% to Tk221.30.

Other major laggards included Rahima Food Corporation, Pragati Life Insurance, Saiham Textile Mills, IFIC Bank, Sonargaon Textiles, Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, and Beximco Pharmaceuticals – each recording double-digit losses over the period.

The report attributed the broad downturn to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which triggered widespread selling. Investor sentiment weakened sharply on fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation – key concerns for Bangladesh's import-dependent economy.

The benchmark DSEX index fell 7.53% during the month, shedding 421.95 points to close at 5,178.31. Market activity also declined significantly, with average daily turnover dropping 24.12% month-on-month to around Tk 600 crore, reflecting heightened risk aversion.

Volatility remained high throughout March. Early sessions were marked by panic selling, dragging the index down by more than 591 points cumulatively. One of the sharpest declines came in a single session, when the index plunged 208.98 points – the steepest one-day fall since 2020 – following an escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Although the market saw a brief mid-month rebound driven by bargain hunting, the recovery proved short-lived. Analysts said the absence of any clear de-escalation signals in global tensions discouraged sustained buying, leading to renewed selling pressure in the latter half.

Sectoral performance indicated widespread weakness, with most major industries posting negative returns. Food and allied, banking, and financial institutions were among the worst performers, reflecting both macroeconomic stress and eroding investor confidence.

Analysts warned that the sharp decline in blue-chip stocks is particularly concerning, as these are typically viewed as stable investments. Their fall signals deeper market uncertainty and growing investor caution, even toward fundamentally strong companies.

They added that the market's near-term trajectory will depend largely on global developments, especially in energy markets, as well as domestic economic stability. Until clearer signals emerge, trading is likely to remain subdued, with volatility elevated

Bangladesh could lose more than $17.5 billion in exports following its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, the steepest projected loss among all graduating nations globally, according to a new United Nations report.

The figure represents nearly a third of the country’s $54.8 billion in total exports recorded in 2023, according to the Trade Preferences Outlook 2025, published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

“The trade effects of losing LDC preferences could be substantial in certain cases,” it said, projecting that Bangladesh can face a 32.24 percent decline in its total exports after it transitions to a developing country.

The warning comes just over six months before Bangladesh’s scheduled graduation on November 24, 2026. Nepal and Lao PDR are also scheduled to graduate this year, with the third and final review process by the UN currently underway ahead of the final transition.

The new BNP-led government, which took office in February, has sought a three-year deferral, pushing the graduation date to November 2029, citing disruptions in preparedness caused by prolonged global crises and domestic economic pressures.

The request came amid repeated calls from exporters who say the country is not yet prepared to compete without preferential trade access.

GARMENTS, FOOTWEAR TO BEAR THE BRUNT

The UNCTAD report, released in late February, found that around 97 percent of the projected export losses would stem from the apparel and footwear sectors – the twin pillars of Bangladesh’s export economy, which together account for nearly 90 percent of the country’s goods exports.

The European Union (EU) looms largest in the risk picture. Some 77 percent of the total projected loss is linked to preference erosion in the EU market, which currently grants duty-free access to Bangladeshi apparel and footwear under its Everything but Arms initiative for LDCs.

The EU is Bangladesh’s biggest export destination, accounting for nearly 47 percent of total exports in 2024. The United States follows at 16.15 percent of total exports, with other developed markets at 15 percent. Canada and Japan together account for around 5.82 percent.

Post-graduation, Canada is projected to contribute 8.6 percent of the total export decline, while the United Kingdom would account for 6.9 percent.

The loss of preferential market access conditions can result in a substantial decrease in exports of preference-receiving countries as evident in projection for fellow graduating nations.

According to the UNCTAD report, Lao PDR is projected to see a 12.8 percent decline in exports, and Nepal a 3.82 percent drop.

FTAs AND TRANSITION DEALS

The report noted that several graduating LDCs have moved to negotiate free trade agreements (FTAs) with key partners to lock in tariff preferences beyond their LDC status.

For instance, Bangladesh has initiated FTA talks with both Japan and the EU, among others.

However, the report cautioned that reciprocal trade agreements come with their own costs, requiring countries to open their own markets, potentially raising competition, triggering adjustment pressures and reducing customs revenues.

Countries with limited market power, it added, often face challenges in effectively negotiating and achieving their economic interests in trade negotiations with partners that enjoy significantly greater markets

UNCTAD noted that with 14 LDCs nearing graduation, smooth transitional arrangements are gaining traction.

The report noted that the EU, the United Kingdom and Canada have introduced mechanisms allowing graduating LDCs continued access to preferential treatment for three years after graduation, offering some cushion against abrupt trade shocks.

The EU has also moved to reform its GSP+ scheme to improve accessibility for vulnerable economies, including future LDC graduates. Some of the recent reforms aim to better accommodate populous graduating LDCs such as Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, the UK and Canada have introduced analogous preference programmes of their own, titled “Enhanced Preferences” and General Preferential Tariff Plus (GPTP), respectively.

‘STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES EXPOSED’

Economists say the findings should serve as a wake-up call.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said the UNCTAD projections highlight how deeply the country’s trade competitiveness depends on preferential access.

“While this estimate does, on the surface, look very high, with more than 90 percent of exports benefiting from such preferences, the transition to a post-LDC regime will expose structural weaknesses, particularly our heavy reliance on a narrow set of products and markets,” he said.

Rahman said the message is clear: graduation cannot be treated as a symbolic achievement alone.

“It must be accompanied by urgent and credible reforms: securing trade agreements, especially with the EU, improving logistics and energy reliability, and enabling firms to move up the value chain. Without this, preference erosion could translate into real economic stress.

“With the right reforms, however, graduation can become a turning point towards a more resilient and competitive export economy,” he added.