Picture this: Dhaka, 9 February 2026. Three days before a national election, in a room sealed from public scrutiny, officials sign the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the United States.

No parliamentary debate. No press conference. No disclosure of terms.

Twenty-four hundred kilometres west, in New Delhi, textile exporters scan the leaked fine prints. Their conclusion: Bangladesh has locked itself into buying expensive American cotton in exchange for tariff access. Production costs will rise. Profit margins will shrink.

But the real story runs deeper.

Article 4.3 contains a sleeper clause: if Bangladesh signs any agreement with a "non-market-based country" — Washington's shorthand for China or Russia — the US can cancel all preferences overnight.

Bangladesh commits to supporting US actions to protect American economic security. Dhaka agrees to restrict the unauthorised exports of US-controlled items and develop export control systems with Washington.

This is not a trade agreement. This is a strategic straitjacket, tailored in the 12 days before an election, while the nation looked away.

The missing filter

Hossain Zillur Rahman's six-point memo to the new government is essential reading — a sharp domestic diagnostic on jobless growth, mesoeconomics, and effective compassion. He is right about the internal fractures. But the world outside has fractured too.

The global economy is no longer neutral. It has become a battlefield. Western economic warfare, supply chain decoupling, and the rise of a multipolar world have transformed every major economic decision into a geopolitical choice. A power plant is not just megawatts. A 5G contract is not just bandwidth. A trade deal is not just tariffs.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security, and digital infrastructure must pass two tests.

First, does it advance domestic economic goals? This is Rahman's framework.

Second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world? This is the missing framework, and without it, competence alone will not steer us through the storm.

The 9 February deal through both filters

Apply this dual filter to the US-Bangladesh ART agreement.

Through the first lens, the deal offers duty-free access for approximately 2,500 products. Export volumes to the United States could rise from $8.7 billion to $12 billion within two years. On paper, this deal appears to advance national interests.

The second lens reveals a straitjacket. Tariff-rate quota volumes for apparel will be determined by US textile imports. Garments made using Indian, Brazilian or African cotton may not qualify for preferential access. Bangladesh's entire apparel value chain must pivot toward higher-cost US inputs.

Worse, sovereignty clauses restrict future foreign policy. Sign an agreement with Beijing that Washington deems harmful? The deal terminates. Purchase nuclear reactors from Russia or China? Explicitly prohibited. Pursue digital cooperation with non-Western partners? Restricted.

The agreement also locks Dhaka into purchasing $15 billion of American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) over 15 years, plus commitments to buy 14 Boeing aircraft — a $3-4 billion decision made without consulting Biman's technical committee, which was still evaluating competing proposals from Airbus.

This is not economic policy. It is surrendering fiscal sovereignty.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security and digital infrastructure must pass two tests: first, does it advance domestic economic goals, and second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world?

Export diversification beyond the cotton trap

Bangladesh's export basket remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors. Ready-made garments account for over 80% of earnings. Four markets — the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Japan — absorb 68% of exports. This is a single point of failure wrapped in cotton.

The Global South offers alternatives without strategic shackles. In January 2026, Bangladesh Bank announced cash incentives for 43 export categories, including light engineering, halal meat, leather goods, pharmaceuticals, and software-enabled services. The halal economy alone is projected to reach $10 trillion by 2030.

Local currency settlement mechanisms are reducing exposure to dollar volatility across Asia. About 90% of commerce among Brics nations is now settled in local currencies, up from roughly 65% two years ago.

The Brics Pay platform, presented at the October 2024 Kazan Summit, connects national payment systems — China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), and Brazil's instant payment network PIX — enabling local-currency transactions via QR codes without intermediaries.

These are operational frameworks Bangladesh can study and adapt.

Energy security as geopolitical choice

Every power plant tells a story about whose technology a nation trusts. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian technology, is expected to begin operations this year.

The Matarbari coal plant, developed with Japanese assistance, represents another model. The LNG terminals supplied by US and Qatari partners represent a third. Each carries different strategic implications and different exposure to sanctions.

Bangladesh must prioritise its energy security. The 9 February deal bars Bangladesh from purchasing nuclear reactors, fuel rods or enriched uranium from any country that 'jeopardises essential US interests', offering exceptions only for existing contracts. This is a pre-emptive strike against future energy choices.

In January 2026, the Ministry of Power submitted a 25-year master plan to Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, focusing on offshore gas exploration, LNG supply security, and hydrogen infrastructure. The plan projects electricity demand rising from 17 to 59 gigawatts by 2050, requiring investments exceeding $177 billion. Bangladesh must ensure its energy future remains its own to decide.

Digital infrastructure and data sovereignty

The twenty-first century's most valuable resource is data. The infrastructure that carries it — undersea cables, data centres and cloud platforms — is increasingly contested terrain.

The draft National AI Policy 2026-2030 explicitly emphasises "digital sovereignty", aiming to safeguard critical data and citizens' rights. A cornerstone is the development of a Bangla-based large language model to preserve cultural heritage and protect intellectual property from foreign exploitation.

The policy warns that automation may threaten up to 60.8% of garment sector jobs, affecting around 2.7 million workers.

Yet the 9 February deal commits Bangladesh to "permit the free transfer of data across trusted borders" and support a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). These provisions constrain Dhaka's ability to negotiate different data governance frameworks with other partners.

The emerging cooperation among Asean, China, and Gulf states on digital trade platforms offers an alternative model — built on connectivity rather than control. These frameworks do not require choosing against the West. They require building enough relationships that no single partner can dictate terms.

The seventh signal

Zillur Rahman's six signals provide a strong domestic foundation. But they assume a world that no longer exists. The seventh signal is this: Bangladesh's economic and foreign policy can no longer be separated. Every decision on export markets, energy partners, and digital infrastructure is simultaneously an economic calculation and a geopolitical commitment.

The new government must institutionalise this understanding. Create a National Economic Security Council bringing together trade, finance, energy, and foreign policy officials. Require strategic vulnerability assessments for every major international agreement. Task the central bank with a formal assessment of platforms like Brics Pay — not as alternatives to Western systems, but as complements that ensure the dollar is not the only option.

The choice before the BNP government is not between East and West. The choice is between accepting a straitjacket designed elsewhere and building enough relationships and enough strategic literacy that Bangladesh's future remains Bangladesh's to write.

Hossain Zillur Rahman is right: the start is grounded in optimism. But optimism without strategic clarity is just wishful thinking dressed in the national flag. The seventh signal must come now — before the next agreement is signed in secret, before the next straitjacket is tailored, before the next crossroads becomes a dead end.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.

The ongoing Middle East crisis has sharply reduced air cargo export capacity, pushing freight rates to double and in some cases nearly triple over the past two weeks.

In addition to higher costs, flight disruptions have also prolonged delivery times due to a significant capacity crunch, according to industry insiders.

Before the conflict began, airlines charged around $2 to $2.2 per kg for shipments to European destinations. Those rates have now surged to $5.5 to $6 per kg as demand rises amid limited cargo space, according to data from the International Air Express Association of Bangladesh (IAEAB).

Freight rates to the United States have also increased, rising from about $4.50-$5 per kg to roughly $7-$8 per kg, the data shows.

IAEAB President Kabir Ahmed told TBS that cargo operations have dropped significantly due to flight disruptions.

"Normally, around 600-700 tonnes of cargo were handled daily. Now it has fallen to about 300-350 tonnes per day. Previously it took two to three days to move cargo, but now it is taking six to seven days. As a result, cargo is piling up at the airport, creating space constraints," he said.

He added that the high freight rates and capacity shortages may persist for at least the next two weeks. "However, if the conflict prolongs, the impact could become even more severe," he warned.

Typically, about 60% of Bangladesh's air cargo is shipped through Middle Eastern hubs like Dubai and Doha. However, nearly half of the flights to those destinations remain suspended, according to data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB), leading to reduced cargo export capacity.

Airport sources said flight disruptions on Middle East routes started on 28 February and the total number of cancelled flights had reached 447 as of 13 March.

Major carriers such as Emirates, Etihad, Flydubai, Air Arabia, Qatar Airways, Gulf Air and Saudia Airlines – all based in the Middle East – have suspended many of their flights for days.

Biman Bangladesh Airlines, the national flag carrier that transports a significant portion of cargo, also suspended flights to several Middle Eastern destinations after the conflict began, further worsening the capacity shortage.

Since Bangladesh has no direct flights to the United States or Europe, it is heavily dependent on these transit hubs.

Meanwhile, airlines operating routes to the US and Europe that bypass the Middle East – including Turkish Airlines, Malaysia Airlines, Thai Airways, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines – have raised their freight charges.

Europe accounts for about 56% of Bangladesh's air cargo exports, while roughly 22% goes to the United States.

Nasir Ahmed Khan, a former director of the Bangladesh Freight Forwarders Association, told TBS that the country largely relies on passenger flights to carry cargo.

"Most of our cargo moves through passenger carriers. Dedicated freighter services have also been reduced. Now only one scheduled freighter flight arrives per week. Some non-scheduled freighters are operating, but the numbers are not sufficient," he said.

Bangladesh's exports have already been in negative territory for seven consecutive months, weighed down by weak demand in the United States and the European Union. The Iran conflict now threatens to add further pressure.

Arab countries accounted for nearly $900 million of Bangladesh's exports in FY25, representing around 2% of the country's total exports. However, they remain important markets for certain sectors.

More than 60% of these exports are garments, while the rest mainly consist of vegetables and other agro-products.

Any prolonged disruption in the region could therefore affect both industrial exports and shipments of perishable goods from Bangladesh.

Bangladeshi apparels are fetching over 10 percent higher prices in European markets on average compared to the United States, even for similar products, according to a recent study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

The study, unveiled yesterday by the local think tank in Dhaka, links the price gap to differences in tariff structures and trade preferences, with exporters benefiting from lower tariffs in Europe while facing higher barriers in the US.

RAPID said the research was based on transaction data from nearly 3,000 exporting firms collected by the customs department of the National Board of Revenue between 2010 and 2023.

It found that about 45 percent of these garment factories export to both the US and EU markets. For major products, prices in the EU consistently exceed those in the US.

On average, leading exporters fetch 5-18 percent higher prices in the EU than the US for major 10 apparel products, it states. T-shirts, for instance, earn 20-27 percent higher prices in Germany than in the US, while trousers fetch 9-15 percent more.

Presenting the findings, Jillur Rahman, deputy director at RAPID and lecturer in development studies at Dhaka University, said, “The gap remains significant even after accounting for product type, firm size, and technological intensity.”

He also highlighted differences in pricing strategies across preferential and non-preferential markets.

“High US tariffs compel exporters to absorb a significant share of the tax burden within their own margins to remain competitive at the border,” Rahman noted.

“The findings are particularly important as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from the least developed country (LDC) category,” he added.

Currently, duty-free access to the EU helps exporters secure better prices. But once Bangladesh graduates, some of these trade preferences may gradually erode, he said.

“The industry will need to strengthen competitiveness by improving product quality, diversifying into higher-value apparel segments and enhancing technological capabilities,” he noted.

Without such upgrades, he said exporters may face growing pressure on prices and margins in global markets, especially in destinations where Bangladesh lacks preferential trade access.

Abdur Rahim Khan, additional secretary of the Ministry of Commerce, said in the past 50 years, the country has failed to develop alternative markets or product competition, and now needed export-driven investment

“If we graduate from LDC status without proper preparation and preferential market access, it will deal a major blow to both the country’s economy and social structure,” he added.

Doulot Akter Mala, president of the Economic Reporters Forum, added, “The biggest problem of our ready-made garments industry is that we have put all our eggs in one basket. Lack of diversification in products and markets makes us vulnerable whenever instability arises in the US or European markets.”

Md Hafizur Rahman, adviser on trade policy and trade facilitation at the World Bank, said, “Bangladesh needs to move from being a low-cost or low-price brand to a high-price brand. This will increase pricing power and competitiveness in international markets.”

Bangladesh's construction materials market is facing rising prices, with the cost of key inputs such as steel rods and cement increasing sharply in recent days.

Over the past 10 days, steel rod prices have risen by up to Tk10,000 per tonne, while cement prices have increased by Tk20-25 per bag, according to market data.

Industry players say higher import costs – particularly for scrap and freight – driven partly by tensions in the Middle East, along with a gradual increase in construction activity after the national election are pushing prices upward.

Rod prices climb sharply

According to market sources, 75-grade mild steel rods are selling at Tk90,000 to Tk95,000 per tonne at the mill gate level. Ten days earlier, the same grade was priced between Tk80,000 and Tk83,000 per tonne.

Among major brands, BSRM rods are selling at around Tk95,000 per tonne, KSRM at Tk91,000, GPH at Tk92,000 and AKS at about Tk92,500.

Steel, rod get costlier

Prices of 60-grade rods have also risen significantly. They have increased by around Tk9,000 per tonne within 10 days and are now selling between Tk87,000 and Tk88,500.

Brands such as HM Steel, BSL and ZSRM are selling at around Tk89,000 per tonne, while Al-Aksa, Montaha, Kadamtali, DSRM and JSRM are priced around Tk88,000. Fresh, IRML and HKG rods are selling at approximately Tk87,000 per tonne.

The four dominant brands in the local market – BSRM, Abul Khair Steel (AKS), GPH and KSRM – have all raised prices significantly since tensions escalated in the Middle East.

Before the conflict, their rods were priced between Tk81,000 and Tk85,000 per tonne. Most of these brands have since increased prices by roughly Tk8,000 to Tk10,000 per tonne, while medium-range brands have also raised prices significantly over the same period.

Sudip Ghose, owner of Prime Steel, a rod dealer in Chattogram's Madarbari area, said prices began rising soon after tensions escalated in the Middle East.

"Large brands have raised rod prices by about Tk10,000 per tonne in the past 10 days," he said.

Cement prices also rise

Cement prices have also increased after remaining largely stable for months.

Mohammad Shahjahan, an agent of Confidence Cement's Rajmistri Green brand, said almost all cement brands raised prices by Tk20-25 per bag within the past three days.

Market sources say Ruby Cement is selling at around Tk520 per bag, while Confidence and Diamond brands are priced at Tk500. Royal Cement is selling at Tk495, Seven Rings at Tk490, Rajmistri at Tk480 and Premier Cement at Tk475.

Petrobangla seeks up to Tk26,000cr extra subsidy to keep gas flowing

Industry officials say cement producers were forced to sell below production cost for nearly a year and a half due to weak demand in the construction sector.

Mohammad Amirul Haque, managing director of Premier Cement Mills PLC and president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA), said the latest price adjustments have helped partially align market prices with production costs.

"For nearly one and a half years, we had to sell cement below production cost because of the stagnant market," he said. "The recent increase has allowed some commercial adjustment between costs and selling prices."

Raw material and freight costs behind the hike

Industry leaders attribute the recent price increases to a combination of stronger domestic demand and rising import costs.

Bangladesh depends heavily on imported raw materials for both steel and cement production. The Middle East conflict has pushed up global fuel prices, which in turn raised shipping costs.

As a result, the cost of importing steel scrap – the primary raw material for rod manufacturing – and clinker, the key ingredient for cement, has increased.

Iran says ceasefire depends on US and Israel promising no future attacks

BCMA President Amirul Haque said clinker booking prices in the international market have risen significantly.

"Import costs have increased due to higher freight costs, so we had to adjust cement prices accordingly," he said.

Scrap prices and supply pressure

Steel producers say global scrap prices have also increased sharply.

The cost of imported scrap has risen by about $50 per tonne, or roughly Tk6,000. Although shipments at the higher prices have not yet reached Bangladesh, the impact is already visible in the domestic market.

Prices of scrap from Bangladesh's shipbreaking industry – another major source of raw materials – have climbed by around Tk3,000 per tonne, reaching about Tk58,000, according to market data.

Shipping costs have also increased substantially. The cost of importing scrap to Chattogram, including freight, has increased from about $360 per tonne to roughly $410 per tonne.

Iftekhar Ahmed, country head of Singapore-based scrap exporter Jaguar Resources and Capital, said freight costs surged sharply after tensions in the Middle East intensified.

"Scrap prices were already rising somewhat before the conflict," he said. "But shipping costs increased abnormally after the situation escalated, forcing suppliers to reconsider new offers."

Govt seeks energy assistance from India amid Middle East war

Mohammed Jahangir Alam, president of the Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association and chairman of GPH Ispat Limited, said many companies had been selling rods below production cost for a long time due to weak demand.

"The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed up global fuel prices, shipping costs and the price of scrap – the main raw material used in rod production. At the same time, the dollar has been strengthening," he said.

"To cope with these additional costs, rod prices have been adjusted," he added.

Factories restart as demand rebounds

Industry insiders say the construction sector had remained sluggish for more than a year and a half, largely due to political uncertainty that slowed both government and private projects.

At one point, rod demand fell by nearly 50%, forcing several steel plants to halt operations.

In Chattogram alone, factories such as Golden Ispat, Baizid Steel, Sheema Steel, Sitalpur Steel and SS Steel had suspended production for extended periods.

Stocks surge as war-driven demand boosts global defence firms

However, industry players say the situation has begun to improve following the election.

Mohammad Sarwar Alam, director of HM Steel, said sales of MS rods have increased over the past two weeks as political stability returned after the election.

"Factories that had been operating at a loss are now seeing some relief," he said.

Oil prices stayed over $100 per barrel Friday while stock markets slid, with no end in sight to disruption in crude supplies as war rages on in the Middle East.

With the conflict heading toward its third week, equity markets continued falling amid investor worries of an extended crisis that could fan inflation and hammer the global economy.

The price of Brent crude, the benchmark international oil contract, dipped below $100 during the day, sending equities briefly higher.

But stocks slid back into the red as Brent climbed back above the $100 mark.

It closed at $103.14 per barrel, and has soared by more than 42 percent since the start of the conflict.

US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 plunged the Middle East into war, sparking a surge in fuel prices as Tehran vowed to choke the Strait of Hormuz -- a critical artery for global energy transport.

"Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com.

"The pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict," Razaqzada added.

"Traders are trying to figure out what a fair value for crude oil is right now, given the big release of emergency oil reserves, and the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil sales that's already at sea," he said.

Iran's threats over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, is causing worries of rising prices rippling through the world economy.

"Fears of a burgeoning energy crisis remain front and center for investors," noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

"Inflationary fears are particularly prevalent," Mahony added.

Major central banks, which prior to the war's outbreak were heavily forecast to keep cutting interest rates, are now widely expected next week to freeze borrowing costs or even hike them to keep a lid on inflation.

An unprecedented seven central banks are due to hold meetings on interest rates next week.

Investors also digested updated US economic growth data for the fourth quarter, which was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial reading of 1.4 percent.

And delayed data showed the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge had dipped to 2.8 percent in January.

This is still higher than the Fed's two-percent inflation target, and reflects a period before energy prices shot higher.

The US central bank now faces an environment where inflation remains sticky and could soon be boosted by energy prices, while GDP growth and the labor market continue to lose momentum, said eToro US Investment Analyst, Bret Kenwell.

On foreign exchange markets, the dollar held gains against major rivals owing to its safe-haven status and expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated longer than expected.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said next week's central bank meetings "come at a delicate time."

"Markets will be watching closely for any signals on how they plan to deal with surging oil and gas prices and whether they see it as a short-term bump to look through."

A tanker's sudden change of course in early March reflects a shift in Russia's energy fortunes.

From 22 to 26 February, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker Sarah turned off its transponders to load Russian oil from smaller ships off the coast of Oman. It then headed towards Singapore, where the cargo was likely to be transferred to another vessel bound for China.

But on 6 March, a day after the United States issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian crude, the tanker changed course. It is now scheduled to arrive at a refinery in western India today (14 March), reports The Economist.

The change reflects a wider shift since the start of the Iran war. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped around 15% of global oil supply in the Gulf.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell to $59 a barrel in December amid expectations of oversupply. It is now around $100. Higher prices have made Russian oil more attractive to buyers. On 12 March, the United States extended its waiver to allow countries to purchase Russian oil that had already been loaded onto tankers.

Before the crisis, Russia's oil revenues had been declining. Many refiners in India and China, Russia's largest customers, stopped buying Russian crude around November before US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect.

By February, Russia's export volumes had fallen by about a fifth. Together with lower prices, this meant the Kremlin's oil-and-gas revenues were 44% lower than a year earlier. In the first two months of the year, Russia's budget deficit reached 3.4 trillion roubles, about nine-tenths of its target for the whole of 2026.

Higher prices and renewed demand are now helping reduce a backlog of Russian oil shipments at sea. India has increased its purchases by about half, helping cut Russia's floating oil inventory by more than 10% to around 122 million barrels. China's imports have also risen.

Because these shipments had already been sold, the immediate financial benefit goes mainly to traders rather than the Russian government.

The absence of Gulf oil has increased demand for alternative supplies. Russian crude is similar in quality to Middle Eastern oil and easier for many Asian refineries to process. Urals crude delivered to India, which had previously been sold at a discount, is now priced above Brent.

Sergey Vakulenko, a former executive at Gazprom Neft, estimates that every $10 increase in Brent prices over a month raises Russia's energy export revenues by about $2.8 billion, of which roughly $1.6 billion goes to the state.

The crisis has also complicated efforts by Western countries to tighten sanctions on Russia. Before the conflict, the United States had considered tougher measures against Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers and possible secondary tariffs.

The recent waivers have also widened differences with the European Union. The European Commission had proposed a ban on maritime services for Russian oil exports, but the plan faces opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.

Concerns over energy supply may also lead some European countries to reconsider plans to stop importing Russian liquefied natural gas next year.

China, which receives about one-third of its liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region, is also concerned about supply disruptions. This may increase interest in overland energy supplies from Russia, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a 2,600-kilometre project that could significantly increase Russian gas exports to China.

Despite higher prices, analysts say Russia's gains may be limited. Ukrainian attacks on oil facilities, sanctions and reduced investment have weakened the industry.

Russia is estimated to have about 300,000 barrels per day of spare production capacity, far below the 10–15 million barrels per day of supply affected by disruptions in the Gulf.

Analysts also say Russia's oil output is likely to decline over time. Higher prices may provide temporary relief, but they are unlikely to reverse the longer-term pressures on Russia's energy sector.

Stocks fell and the US dollar strengthened on Friday as uncertainty over the Iran war continued to disrupt energy supplies, heightening concerns over fuel prices and interest rates.

The price of oil crossed $100 per barrel even as an Indian tanker sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and the US put forth measures to try to ease supply concerns.

All three major US stock indexes logged daily and weekly declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%.

European shares extended their declines as well, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.5% on Friday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.9%.

The dollar has become the safe haven of choice during the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure. The US currency gained for the second consecutive week, up 0.8% on the day against a basket of currencies.

Oil price driving market

President Donald Trump said the US was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week," shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, hoping to ease prices.

Front-month WTI crude futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up 3.11%. Brent rose 2.67% to $103.14, settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

Traders are trying to predict how long the disruption to oil supplies will last.

"Headlines are coming at the market like water from a fire hose, which is impacting the price of oil, and consequently, financial markets," said Mitch Reznick, group head of fixed income at Federated Hermes.

With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.

The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly reprice what they expect from central banks this year, with traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps of cuts priced in last month.

Two-year Treasury yields, which typically move in step with Fed interest rate expectations, hit a six-month high on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in January on a monthly basis, in line with economists' estimates.

At the same time, US economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter amid downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment, government data showed on Friday.

"With markets laser-focused on oil prices and geopolitics, today's numbers may mostly fly under the radar," Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in an email.

"Despite signs of economic softening, more sticky inflation data simply strengthens the idea that the Fed will remain on the sidelines."

Shifting rates outlook

Interest rate futures that had been priced for two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year before the conflict began are now barely pricing in one.

For US government bond trading on Friday, the two-year note yield fell 3.3 bps to 3.73% after hitting its highest level since August 22 on Thursday. US 10-year notes ticked up to 4.283%.

Investor focus will switch to a slate of policy meetings next week, with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all due to meet, with most expected to keep rates unchanged.

In currencies, the euro fell 0.8% to $1.1417, while the yen hit its weakest since July 2024 at 159.66 per US dollar on Friday as Japan warned it was ready to take action to protect against yen declines.

Analysts said the bar for intervention is higher this time around, as any action now could prove futile in the face of relentless dollar buying.

Gold was 1.27% lower at $5,014 per ounce on Friday, capping a drop on the week.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEX) rebounded this week, paring some of the previous week's steep losses as bargain hunters returned to scoop up undervalued blue-chip stocks, even though overall sentiment remained cautious amid escalating Middle East conflict.

The week began in turmoil on Sunday, with the DSEX plummeting 232 points, or 4.42 per cent, marking its largest single-day decline in six years. The sharp sell-off was triggered by intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the bearish start, the market demonstrated resilience over the subsequent four trading sessions of the week. Buoyed by signs of a potential de-escalation in the conflict and easing local concerns regarding immediate fuel shortages in Bangladesh, investor confidence gradually returned.Import/export consultation

At the end of the week, the DSEX had recovered 128 points, or 2.43 percent, to settle at 5,368. This weekly gain provided a partial cushion against the 359-point loss recorded in the previous week.

Market analysts attributed the turnaround to value-seeking behaviour rather than a full restoration of bullish sentiment.

"Many fundamentally strong stocks fell to lucrative price levels after the recent sharp correction, which attracted buyers," said Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital.

He noted that institutional investors also increased exposure to well-performing banking shares as valuations became more attractive.

Market optimism was further bolstered after US President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict involving Iran could be nearing an end, easing fears of potential fuel supply disruptions.

Global oil prices reflected the volatility, with Brent crude falling over 7 per cent to $91.94 per barrel on Tuesday after Monday's three-year peak of $120, before rising again near $100 on Thursday.

Investor confidence also got a boost after Bangladesh Bank raised the prior-approval threshold for foreign capital repatriation from Tk 100 million to Tk 1 billion, aligning rules with international practices and encouraging foreign inflows into undervalued stocks.Import/export consultation

The policy change encouraged foreign investors to channel fresh funds into undervalued stocks, market participants said.

In its weekly market analysis, EBL Securities said, the market witnessed a sustained recovery this week, rebounding from the steepest single-day decline in six years recorded in the opening session, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points amid easing concerns over the potential market impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Still, many investors remained cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and the absence of a clear ceasefire in the Middle East. Bangladeshi businesses have already expressed deep concerns, saying the intensifying conflict may pose fresh challenges and drive up the cost of doing business.

The blue-chip DS30 index climbed 55 points to close at 2,066, while the Shariah-based DSES index gained 31 points to 1,079.

Price surge of blue-chip stocks, including Islami Bank, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, City Bank, Square Pharma, Beximco Pharma, Grameenphone and BRAC Bank, largely contributed to the market index surge. These seven stocks accounted for a 54-point gain in the DSEX.

Islami Bank alone accounted for a 16.3 point gain in the DSEX as its share jumped 6.5 per cent after the bank said its board had approved a US firm as a strategic investor in its subsidiary mCash this week.

The proposed strategic investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and accelerate the expansion of digital financial services under the mobile financial services (MFS) platform, the bank said.

However, market liquidity remained subdued. Total turnover on the DSE dropped to Tk 26.57 billion from Tk 34.82 billion the previous week, with average daily turnover falling 24 per cent to Tk 5.31 billion.

Gainers significantly outnumbered losers, with 324 issues rising, 38 falling and 27 remaining unchanged among the 389 traded securities.

All sectors posted gains, led by cement, which gained 7.6 per cent, followed by telecom, non-bank financial institutions, banking, pharma, power, and engineering.

Orion Infusion was the most-traded stock with Tk 1.43 billion in turnover, followed by City Bank, Olympic Industries, BRAC Bank, and Robi Axiata.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also rebounded, with the All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rising 155 points to 14,980 and the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gaining 100 points to 9,160.

The port city bourse traded 43.3 million shares and mutual fund units, with turnover of Tk 1.66 billion.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is working to introduce a comprehensive framework to define and regulate public interest companies (PICs), aiming to restore regulatory control over capital issuance and prevent misuse in the securities market.

The draft rules, which will be published soon for public opinion, seek to repeal a 2019 exemption that allowed non-listed companies to raise capital without prior BSEC approval.

Under Section 8(1) of the Securities and Exchange Commission Act 1993, the BSEC is tasked with ensuring proper issuance of securities, protecting investor interests, and developing the securities market. But the exemption granted in 2019 removed the need for non-listed companies to seek commission permission for capital raising, a senior BSEC official told The FE.

As a result, the regulator lost oversight over a large segment of capital issuance.

Currently, companies only submit a return of allotment to the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC), which records the filing without examining or regulating the issuance.

According to the official, the absence of regulatory scrutiny created opportunities for misuse. In some cases, companies allegedly inflated their capital structure without adequate asset backing and later entered the market through initial public offerings (IPOs).

Proposed definition of public interest companies

Under the draft framework currently being finalised, the BSEC has outlined specific conditions for classifying companies as PICs and regulating their capital-raising activities.

According to the proposed structure, entities dealing directly with public funds or securities -- such as banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, stockbrokers, stock dealers and merchant banks -- would automatically fall under the PIC category regardless of capital size.

All listed companies would also be classified as PICs.

Financial thresholds for PIC classification

Companies meeting any of the following financial criteria may also be classified as PICs:

- Public limited companies with paid-up capital exceeding Tk 50 million.

- Private limited companies with capital above Tk 150 million.

- Companies with annual revenue exceeding Tk 1 billion.

- Companies borrowing Tk 200 million or more from banks or other public sources

Even privately held companies meeting these thresholds would be considered PICs due to their involvement with public money or stakeholders.

Capital raising rules under consideration

The draft framework introduces specific conditions linking company size with fundraising methods:

-- Companies with capital exceeding around Tk 500 million may be required to raise funds through an IPO, sharing ownership with the public.

-- Firms with capital between Tk 50 million and Tk 500 million could use qualified investor offers.

-- Private placements to outsiders would be limited to a maximum of 20 investors to prevent informal conversion of private offers into public fundraising.

Disclosure and Compliance Requirements

PICs would face mandatory public disclosures even if they do not raise capital via the regulator.

The disclosure standards include maintaining a functional website with details on the company, directors, audited financial statements, annual reports, and contact information.

The website may also be linked with the RJSC database for enhanced transparency.

Digital Approval System

To streamline the process, the commission is also exploring the introduction of a digital platform that would allow companies to apply for capital issuance approvals online.

"This will ensure that companies can apply from anywhere and receive approvals online, making the process faster and more efficient," said the official.

The Commission plans to finalise the proposals after further consultations and the draft rules will be placed for public opinion before implementation.

When asked, Md Abul Kalam, Director and Spokesperson at BSEC, confirmed that the commission is working on the draft rules and will publish them for public feedback.

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$34.29 billion, according to the latest data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) today (Wednesday). Bangladesh Economic Report

Under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) BPM-6 accounting method, the reserves stood at $29.57 billion, it added, BSS reports.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Indian energy giant Reliance Industries was backing a deal to build the first new major oil refinery in the United States in half a century.

Trump made the announcement via his Truth Social platform, saying the company America First Refining would construct the new facility at the Port of Brownsville, Texas.

“This is a historic $300 billion dollar deal -- the biggest in US history,” Trump wrote, framing the project as a cornerstone of his energy agenda, but offering no details on the plan.

“Thank you to our partners in India, and their largest privately held Energy Company, Reliance, for this tremendous Investment,” he said, without specifying the company’s commitment.

Reliance is India’s biggest privately held conglomerate and its Jamnagar refinery is the world’s largest.

The America First Refining website says the company is a project of Element Fuels, which first announced plans in 2024 to build a Brownsville refinery at cost of between $3-$4 billion.

The facility would be the first refinery built on the Gulf of Mexico since the 1970s, and the only one designed to process 100 percent American shale oil, the company said.

Pubali Bank PLC has approved a plan to raise $100 million through a five-year Green Bond as part of the bank's sustainable finance initiatives.

According to a price sensitive information disclosure issued on Wednesday (11 March), the decision was taken at the bank's board meeting held on Wednesday at its Gulshan corporate branch.

The bank said in its statement, the fund will be raised through the issuance of a Green Bond with a tenure of five years to support projects aligned with sustainable and environmentally responsible financing.

The bank said the initiative will follow Green Bond Principles of the International Capital Market Association (ICMA), along with guidelines of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Bangladesh's Sustainable Finance Policy framework.

The proposed bond issuance will be subject to approvals from relevant regulatory authorities and compliance with applicable regulations.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh PLC reported a strong financial performance in 2025, posting a 34% year-on-year rise in profit driven by higher sales, premium product demand and steady growth in its aggregates business despite a slowdown in the construction sector.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure and press release issued on 11 March, the multinational cement maker recorded a net profit of Tk510 crore for the year, up from Tk382 crore in 2024. Revenue also increased by 6% to Tk2,931 crore from Tk2,754 crore a year earlier, while operating profit grew 11% to Tk655 crore from Tk587 crore.

The company said the growth came amid steady business momentum and stronger customer engagement, even as the broader construction industry faced headwinds due to reduced public sector spending and tighter private credit conditions.

Reflecting the improved profitability, LafargeHolcim recommended a total 40% cash dividend for shareholders for the year 2025. The payout includes an 18% interim cash dividend already distributed earlier in the year and a proposed 22% final cash dividend. The total dividend amounts to roughly Tk465 crore, equivalent to 40% of the company's paid-up capital.

The dividend proposal will be placed for approval at the company's annual general meeting scheduled for 13 May, while the record date to determine eligible shareholders has been set for 9 April.

Iqbal Chowdhury, chief executive officer of LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, said the company managed to deliver strong results despite challenging market conditions.

"In 2025, the broader construction industry faced headwinds from subdued public sector investment and constrained private credit growth. Yet, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh delivered a strong performance," he said.

He added that the company achieved volume growth in both the cement and aggregates segments, reflecting strong customer confidence in its products and services.

According to Chowdhury, the company's focus on innovation has also contributed to business expansion. Specialised cement products such as "Water Protect" and "Fair Face" registered significant growth during the year, indicating strong consumer preference for premium solutions.

Alongside its commercial success, the company also continued its sustainability initiatives. Through its Geocycle platform, LafargeHolcim co-processed more than 45,000 tonnes of non-recyclable materials in 2025 and replaced around 11% of fossil fuel consumption with alternative fuels.

Chowdhury said the company also faced profitability pressures from rising energy costs and market volatility but addressed these challenges through cost-efficiency measures and strategic pricing adjustments.

The company began in 2026 with the launch of new specialised cement products, including "Holcim Coastal Guard" designed for coastal construction projects and "Powercrete" targeted at the ready-mix concrete segment.

These innovations are aimed at meeting specialised customer needs while strengthening the company's competitive position in Bangladesh's construction materials market.

In terms of market performance, LafargeHolcim shares recently closed at Tk50.60 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), down 0.59% from the previous trading session. The company's market capitalisation currently stands at around Tk5,877 crore.

As of February, sponsors and directors held 63.39% of the company's shares, while institutional investors owned 22.09%. Foreign investors accounted for 0.80% of the shareholding, with the remaining 13.72% held by general public investors.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, listed on the DSE in 2003 as a greenfield investment, is one of the country's leading building materials producers. The company has invested nearly $500 million in Bangladesh, representing one of the largest foreign direct investments in the cement sector.

The investment enabled the establishment of a fully integrated cement plant along with three grinding stations, strengthening the company's production capacity and supply chain.

The company operates as a joint venture between Switzerland-based Holcim Group and Spain-based Cementos Molins. Leveraging advanced technology and skilled professionals, the company produces a wide range of cement and building material solutions for infrastructure and real estate projects.

Looking ahead, the company said it is focusing on several strategic priorities to sustain profitability in the coming quarters. These include improving operational efficiency, investing in a lower-cost energy mix through alternative fuels, diversifying the product portfolio and strengthening pricing strategies.

At the same time, LafargeHolcim is continuing investments in sustainability initiatives and digital transformation to enhance productivity and reinforce its long-term market leadership in Bangladesh's building materials industry.

US liquefied natural gas (LNG) companies are projected to earn more than $1 billion per week in additional profits as global energy prices surge amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, according to new data from energy research firm EnergyFlux.

The crisis escalated after a US–Israel coalition launched strikes in Iran on 28 February, destabilising global energy markets. The situation intensified when Qatar shut down its Ras Laffan LNG facility, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply, triggering a worldwide supply shortage.

EnergyFlux data shows that profits from a single LNG cargo shipped from the United States to Europe have doubled from around $25 million last week to more than $50 million as of 2 March.

Analysts estimate that if the Ras Laffan plant remains closed for a month, US LNG exporters could earn up to $4 billion in extra profits. If disruptions continue through the summer, the figure could rise to around $20 billion per month.

Shares of major US LNG exporters have already surged. Venture Global and Cheniere Energy saw their share prices rise by about 23% and 11%, respectively, following the market shift. Venture Global has also been reported to have close ties to former US President Donald Trump.

The increase in LNG profits comes alongside a broader spike in energy prices. Since the conflict escalated, Brent crude oil prices have risen about 14%, European natural gas prices have jumped 75%, and Asian LNG spot prices have climbed roughly 47%.

With Middle Eastern supply disrupted, Europe and Asia are increasingly turning to alternative suppliers, particularly the United States. Rapid expansion of liquefaction facilities over the past decade has made the US the world's largest LNG exporter, accounting for around 25% of global exports in 2025.

Europe remains the primary destination for US LNG, especially after the region reduced reliance on Russian pipeline gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Spain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have expanded or are expected to increase imports from the United States.

Asian countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh and India may also increase LNG imports from the US if the Iran crisis continues, as many of them depend heavily on LNG for electricity generation and industrial use.

Energy experts say the situation highlights how LNG has become both a commercial commodity and a geopolitical tool, while also underscoring the importance of diversifying energy sources and accelerating the shift toward renewable energy.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has identified six major business groups as primary targets in its first phase of strategic efforts to recover laundered loan assets from abroad.

Due to strategic reasons, the central bank has not yet disclosed the names of these groups, UNB reports.

However, sources confirmed that they were selected based on the volume of their defaulted loans, allegations of money laundering, and specific intelligence reports.

According to central bank officials, there is strong evidence that these groups laundered a significant portion of the massive loans they secured from the banking sector. To expedite results, the most "high-risk" and discussed groups have been prioritized.

Under this initiative, affected banks are preparing to initiate civil proceedings in foreign courts with the assistance of international asset recovery agencies and litigation funders. These experts will track the money trail, locate offshore assets, and determine legal strategies for recovery.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md. Mostaqur Rahman has directed banks to intensify their efforts, emphasizing that the laundered money belongs to depositors.

Presiding over a meeting titled ‘Update of Civil Asset Recovery Status’ on Tuesday, the Governor, who also chairs the Stolen Asset Recovery Taskforce (SARTF), assured banks of full support.

"This is a national priority. If any bank faces political pressure while pursuing these cases, they should contact me directly. I will take the responsibility of handling such pressure," he stated.Politics

The recovery process is being conducted through two channels. One is through criminal proceedings, managed on a Government-to-Government (G2G) basis involving state agencies and law enforcement. The other is through civil proceedings, led by the affected banks, who hire international firms to sue for damages and asset repatriation in foreign jurisdictions.

The meeting revealed that 10 banks have already signed 36 Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) with various international asset recovery firms. While private banks are moving swiftly, state-owned commercial banks were urged to accelerate their information-sharing and NDA processes.

Following the first phase involving these six groups, the central bank plans to expand the scope significantly. Preparation is already underway to bring over 100 potential cases under the civil asset recovery framework in the second phase.

Central bank officials believe that successful legal action against these first six groups will set a crucial precedent and send a stern warning to other large-scale loan defaulters.

Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said Bangladesh has sought a temporary waiver from the United States to purchase Russian oil, similar to the exemption granted to India, amid a global fuel crisis due to tensions in the Middle East.

"We told them [US] that if Bangladesh is given a similar opportunity, it would greatly support our economy. They have said the matter will be sent to Washington. Now we will see what happens," the minister told journalists after a meeting with US Ambassador to Bangladesh Brent T Christensen at the planning minister's office in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar today (11 March).

Indian refiners buying prompt Russian oil as Iran war hits supplies, sources say

Khasru said that the meeting mainly discussed the uncertainty in the international energy market, particularly regarding oil and gas supply.

Issues related to increasing investment, trade, and economic cooperation between Bangladesh and the United States were also discussed at the meeting.

The minister added that there were discussions on capacity building of various government institutions as well.

Govt seeks seamless fuel import from China, ramps up diesel imports from India

Responding to questions from journalists, he said that no specific decision was made in the meeting regarding a possible trade agreement with the United States.

He said, "A trade agreement is a matter between two countries. It is not possible for us to say anything specific right now. However, we are considering how the issue can be utilised in the best possible way for Bangladesh's interests."

In response to a question about the government's course of action if the current international conflict becomes prolonged, he said the government is preparing by considering different possible scenarios.

"Whether the war is short-term, medium-term, or prolonged we are planning by taking every situation into account. These issues were discussed in detail today," Khasru said.

Despite adequate imports and stocks of edible oil and sugar in Bangladesh, panic-buying triggered by fears over the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war has created shortages at the retail level in the capital.

Traders and importers say there is no actual supply crisis, noting that the country still holds sufficient stocks to meet demand for at least a month, while import activities remain normal.

A visit to several markets in the capital showed that loose soybean oil is being sold at Tk178-193 per kilogramme. Five-litre bottles are selling for Tk940-Tk955, while two-litre bottles are priced between Tk390 and Tk395. Palm oil is being sold at Tk158-Tk162 per kilogramme, and sugar at Tk100-Tk105 per kilogramme.

In many neighbourhood grocery stores, however, the supply of soybean oil appears insufficient compared with demand. Five-litre bottles are largely unavailable, according to retailers, a situation that has persisted for around two weeks.

Traders say the shortage is mainly due to a surge in consumer demand. Mohammad Saiful Islam, a trader in Dhaka's Shahjadpur, said companies are supplying very limited quantities of bottled oil.

"We hardly receive five-litre bottles, and two-litre bottles arrive only occasionally. Companies are saying they themselves do not have enough supply. People have also been buying more than usual, but at the moment I simply do not have the product to sell," he said.

Among consumers, anxiety about the war has also led to stockpiling. Israt Jahan Lipsa, a resident of Mohammadpur and a former banker, said she bought two months' worth of groceries after the war began.

"During crises or disasters, food prices usually rise and sometimes products become unavailable. We have seen this before, so I bought two months' worth of supplies in advance so that we would not face problems if shortages occur," she said.

At the wholesale level, however, traders say the supply of edible oil and sugar remains sufficient. At Karwan Bazar in the capital, wholesaler Mamunur Rashid said there had been minor disruptions for a day or two, but the situation has now normalised.

According to the commerce ministry, Bangladesh's annual demand for soybean and palm oil is around 25 lakh tonnes, while sugar demand stands at about 20-21 lakh tonnes.

Of this, only around 30,000-37,000 tonnes of sugar are produced locally. Demand for both commodities peaks during Ramadan, when around 3 lakh tonnes of each are required.

Ample storage confirmed by importers

Officials from oil and sugar importing companies also insist there is no real shortage. They say panic buying is largely responsible for the temporary supply pressure in the retail market, adding that private companies currently hold at least one month's stock.

Supplier companies have also rejected claims of a soybean oil shortage, saying the scarcity at local shops is the result of panic-buying rather than supply disruption. Some industry insiders, however, said a few companies, including Bashundhara, faced difficulties opening letters of credit (LCs), which may have created limited supply constraints.

Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group, one of the leading suppliers of consumer goods, said the company imported additional oil and sugar during January and February compared with regular months.

"We are supplying more than 50,000 tonnes of oil per month. There should be no shortage," he said, adding that if problems arise at the dealer level, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection should take action.

Echoing the view, Biswajit Saha, executive director of City Group, said the company has not reduced supply. He noted that some smaller firms are struggling to import edible oil due to LC-related complications.

"The temporary shortage may be linked to the extra demand during Ramadan and stockpiling by some consumers," he said.

Zohurul Islam, business manager of ACI Limited, said the current stock of soybean oil in the country should be sufficient for about a month.

"So far, we have not increased prices, and there should be no need to do so within the next 15 to 20 days. However, if crude oil prices rise in the global market, it will inevitably have an impact everywhere," he said.

Strict monitoring urged

SM Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the issue cannot be blamed solely on consumers.

"During such situations, many dealers and retailers also start hoarding products, which creates artificial shortages and allows them to sell at higher prices," he said.

Nazer urged the government to conduct inspections of warehouses to check if there is any case of hoarding.

"According to our estimates, there are about six months' worth of crude sugar and edible oil either in stock or in the import pipeline. Since these products also require time for refining, there is no question of a real shortage. This appears to be an attempt to create an artificial crisis to raise prices," he added.

Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as markets doubted whether the International Energy Agency’s reported plan for a ​record release of oil reserves could offset potential supply shocks from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Brent futures traded up 59 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $88.39 a barrel ‌by 0727 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded 98 cents higher, or 1.2 percent, at $84.43 a barrel.

Both contracts extended losses in early Asian trade, after plunging more than 11 percent on Tuesday, despite US crude prices leaping 5 at the market’s opening.

The IEA’s proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market ​in two releases in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the WSJ said, citing officials familiar with the matter.

In ​a note to clients, Goldman Sachs analysts said that a stockpile release of that size would offset 12 days of the investment bank’s estimated 15.4 million barrel-per-day Gulf exports disruption.

The US and Israel pounded Iran on Tuesday with what the Pentagon and Iranians on the ground ​called the most intense airstrikes of the war.

The US military also “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the US Central Command said, ​as US President Donald Trump warned any mines laid in the Strait by Iran must be removed immediately.

Some analysts were sceptical about the IEA’s proposal and its impact on oil prices.

“Moves like IEA SPR release are not the solution to the crisis. How oil prices will evolve will depend on the duration of the Iran war,” said DBS ​energy sector team lead Suvro Sarkar.

Near-term upside price risks will be “reined in through periodic strategic signalling moves like we have seen over the past couple ​of days to calm markets down”, Sarkar added.

G7 officials have also gathered online to discuss a potential release of emergency oil stockpiles to soften the market blow.

French President Emmanuel ‌Macron will host ⁠a video call with other G7 country leaders on Wednesday to discuss the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy and measures to address the situation.

Trump has repeatedly said the US is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the US Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high for now.

The president and his energy team are closely watching the markets, speaking with industry leaders, and the US military is

Abu Dhabi state ​oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery ​in response to a fire ⁠at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, according to a source, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is seen boosting supplies via ​the Red Sea, although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in ​flows from the Strait ⁠of Hormuz, shipping data showed.

The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to help it boost exports to avert steep production cuts as its neighbours Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already reduced output.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and oil products supply ⁠to the ​market by some 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude prices to $150 per barrel.

“Even ​a quick resolution probably implies weeks of disruption for energy markets yet,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Reflecting higher demand, US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said, ​citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Garment exports from Bangladesh to non-traditional markets declined by 6.34 percent year-on-year to $4.24 billion in the July-February period of the current fiscal year.

Every market other than the European Union (EU), the UK, Canada, and the US is considered non-traditional or emerging for Bangladesh.

The total market share of garment exports to non-traditional markets stood at 16.44 percent during this time, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

In the same period, Bangladesh’s total RMG exports reached $25.8 billion, registering a 3.73 percent year-on-year fall.

The EU remained Bangladesh’s largest export destination for RMG, accounting for 49.18 percent of total exports in this category. Export earnings from the bloc stood at $12.69 billion, registering a year-on-year decline of 5.49 percent.

The US retained its position as the second-largest market, with RMG exports amounting to $5.03 billion during the period. This represented 19.50 percent of total RMG exports, though shipments fell by 0.74 percent year-on-year.

Exports to Canada and the UK showed positive momentum. Apparel exports to Canada grew by 3.08 percent in July-February to reach $871.58 million, representing a 3.38 percent share.

Shipments to the UK slightly increased by 1.22 percent to $2.97 billion, accounting for an 11.5 percent share.

The knitwear segment recorded a 4.56 percent fall to $13.68 billion, while woven exports fell by 2.79 percent to $12.10 billion during the same period.

Gold edged higher on Wednesday on safe-haven demand and as ‌a retreat in oil prices calmed inflation worries, reviving expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year as investors awaited US CPI data that may offer more cues.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $5,198.29 ​per ounce, as of 0641 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery fell 0.7 percent ​to $5,206.40.

Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel amid reports that the International Energy Agency proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to curb surging prices.

“With ​these (inflation) concerns having eased... hedging and safe-haven attributes (of gold) have once again come to the fore. So, ​I think from current levels we remain optimistic,” said Nikos Kavalis, Singapore managing director of Metals Focus.

The US and Israel pounded Iran with what the Pentagon and the Iranians on the ground called the most intense ​airstrikes of the war, despite global markets betting that Trump will seek to end ​the conflict soon.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global ‌oil and liquefied natural gas, stranding tankers for more than a week and forcing producers to halt output as storage fills, driving energy prices soaring.

Bullion, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has risen more than 20 percent so far this year, notching successive record highs amid heightened geopolitical and ​economic uncertainty.

“I think it’s ​very likely that ⁠we’ll see gold get to over $6,000 an ounce by the third or fourth quarter this year, probably even higher early next year,” Kavalis ​said.

Markets are now awaiting the US consumer price index for February, ​due later ⁠in the day, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - on Friday.

Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on March ⁠18 ​but still see at least two rate cuts this year, ​per CME Group’s FedWatch tool.