Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has cautioned that the recent surge in stock market indices, centred on election optimism, is largely confidence-driven and cosmetic rather than a sign of sustainable recovery.

Speaking to journalists at his residence in Mehedibag, Chattogram, on Friday during his first visit to the port city after taking oath as a minister in the new government, Khosru said temporary gains based on sentiment would not bring fundamental change to the capital market.

He noted that the current upward trend may reflect expectations of a democratic government but stressed that only sustainable and structural reforms could ensure long-term stability.

The finance minister said the government would introduce comprehensive reforms in the capital market, including necessary amendments to laws and the regulatory framework. In particular, the role of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission would be further strengthened.

He emphasised enhancing the effectiveness of the regulator, ensuring greater transparency, and adopting a zero-tolerance approach towards irregularities.

Khosru also said initiatives would be taken to bring fundamentally strong and profitable companies to the market to offer investors quality investment opportunities. At the same time, attracting both domestic and foreign investment funds to boost liquidity and restore investor confidence would remain a priority.

"If these measures are implemented, not only the capital market but also industry, trade, exports and production will benefit," he said, adding that increased employment and overall economic growth would follow.

Meanwhile, BSEC Chairman Khondkar Rashed Maqsood described the stock market as an extremely sensitive area where no "garbage" could be tolerated.

He made the remarks as chief guest at an iftar event organised by the Capital Market Journalists Forum on Friday afternoon.

Maqsood said irregularities and misconduct must be eliminated, and that journalists covering the capital market were playing a crucial role in exposing manipulation and rumour-driven profit-taking.

"If reporting increases, such garbage will also be removed," he said.

However, he warned that the capital market reacts swiftly to information and stressed the importance of verifying facts before publication. Unverified reports, he cautioned, could cause immediate damage. While the commission does not discourage reporting, it expects responsible and fact-checked journalism.

At the same event, Professor Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, said a strong capital market is closely linked to overall economic performance.

He expressed optimism about positive developments under the new government and underscored the need for economic training to make capital market reporting more informative and analytical.

The Dhaka stock market ended the week on a positive note, with National Bank emerging as the top gainer, while Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC stood as the worst-performing stock.

National Bank registered a strong 29.27% weekly return, closing at Tk5.30, driven by notable investor interest in banking stocks.

Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) followed with a 28.57% gain to settle at Tk3.60. S Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited continued its recent rally, advancing 27.50% to Tk15.30 despite persistent financial concerns.

Other significant gainers included Fareast Finance and Premier Leasing, both rising 27.27% to Tk1.40 each. Prime Finance climbed 22.73% to Tk2.70, while Daffodil Computer gained 22% to close at Tk56.

Infographic: TBS
Infographic: TBS

Meanwhile, Familytex and Tung Hai Knitting each posted 20% gains, ending the week at Tk1.80 and Tk2.40, respectively. Shurwid Industries advanced 19.61% to Tk6.10.

On the losing side, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC declined 12.28% to close at Tk45.70, topping the losers' chart. ICB Islamic Bank fell 10.71% to Tk2.50, while Midas Finance shed 9.38% to Tk6.40.

Al-Arafah Islami Bank lost 9.09% to Tk16, and Union Capital dropped 8.89% to Tk4.10. Crystal Insurance retreated 8.53% to Tk77.20, while Asiatic Laboratories Limited fell 7.89% to Tk63. Phoenix Finance also declined 7.50% to Tk3.70.

The benchmark DSEX index extended its upward trend for the fifth consecutive week, supported by strong post-election optimism at the start of trading.

Following the election holidays, trading resumed with broad-based buying pressure that pushed the index past the 5,600-mark for the first time in nearly six months.

However, EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, noted that the initial enthusiasm moderated in later sessions as investors engaged in profit-booking and adopted a cautious stance, closely watching policy signals and regulatory developments under the newly elected government.

By the end of the week, DSEX gained 66 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 5,466. Market participation remained strong, with average daily turnover rising to Tk1,050 crore.

Sector-wise, the banking sector dominated trading activity, accounting for 20.7% of total turnover, followed by pharmaceuticals at 16.3% and textiles at 10.2%.

Most sectors posted positive returns during the week. The paper sector led gains with a 5.3% increase, while IT and ceramics rose 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, the jute sector emerged as the worst performer, declining 3%.

The Trump administration's ambitious tariff strategy against China has failed to achieve its stated economic and geopolitical goals, according to government and industry sources, leaving the US trade deficit at record highs, manufacturing under pressure, and China seizing new global markets.

Trade gap worsens despite tariffs

Contrary to claims that tariffs would shrink the US trade deficit, the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $1.241 trillion in 2025, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. While the combined deficit for goods and services fell marginally to $901.5 billion from $903.5 billion in 2024, the gains were largely symbolic, says the Chosun Daily.

The tariffs succeeded in reducing imports from China by nearly 30% to their lowest level since 2009, but US companies shifted their sourcing to countries including Vietnam, Southeast Asia, India, and Taiwan.

As a result, total US imports rose 4.5% ($145 billion), undermining efforts to narrow the deficit. Analysts emphasize that nearly all of the financial burden of tariffs-an estimated 96%-fell on US firms and consumers rather than foreign exporters.

Legal uncertainty further complicated the picture. The US Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot unilaterally impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to implement a temporary 10% global tariff while seeking alternative legal authorities to sustain its trade policy framework.

Manufacturing gains remain elusive

The tariffs, intended to rejuvenate US manufacturing, largely stunted growth in the sector. Over 83,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in 2025, and factory output stagnated for much of the year. Only in January 2026 did production rise by 0.6%, marking the largest monthly gain in 11 months, reports Reuters.

Certain sectors-particularly technology, machinery, electronics, and motor vehicles-showed modest growth, but economists attribute this largely to an "artificial intelligence spending boom," not tariff-driven protection. High costs of imported inputs and disrupted supply chains continued to squeeze domestic manufacturers.

China turns challenge into opportunity

While US imports from China plummeted, Beijing leveraged the trade conflict to expand its global influence. Overall Chinese exports grew over 5% in 2025, driving a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. To offset losses from the US, China redirected trade toward ASEAN countries, increasing sales by 13%, and to the European Union, which rose by 8%, says the Guardian.

Strategic partnerships also flourished. Canada signed new economic agreements with China, citing adaptation to "new global realities," while South Korea engaged in high-level state visits with Beijing. This realignment illustrates a growing willingness among US allies to diversify partnerships in response to Washington's unilateralism.

China's overproduction has flooded global markets with everything from steel to electric vehicles, prompting over 300 antidumping investigations worldwide and spurring countries like Mexico and India to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Sources describe this "export-led surge" as "strangling" manufacturers across both developed and emerging economies.

Erosion of the international trading order

The tariffs accelerated the breakdown of the World Trade Organization and the rules-based trading system established after World War II. Traditional allies, frustrated by US pressure, increasingly bypass Washington, negotiating trade agreements with China and India. European officials have even questioned the WTO's "most favored nation" principle, suggesting that access to low tariffs should be "earned" through commitments to fair trade rather than guaranteed, says the BBC.

Diplomatic turbulence extended to domestic politics abroad. In Canada, political instability-partly attributed to the US trade threat-led to the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after his deputy criticized the government's handling of US pressures.

US global standing in decline

Rather than strengthening American influence, tariffs have contributed to a perception of the US as an unreliable partner. Favorability ratings in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and Canada fell to near-record lows.

The Supreme Court's decision undermined US negotiating leverage, leaving international partners skeptical of Washington's ability to enforce trade threats, according to the Pew Research Center.

Domestically, policymakers faced setbacks. Job losses, stalled manufacturing growth, and rising input costs undermined claims that tariffs would bolster the US economy. Analysts warn that partisan polarization and internal governance challenges further weaken Washington's ability to project power globally.

The Trump-era tariffs illustrate the limits of unilateral protectionism in a globalized economy. Far from "making America great," the policies have exacerbated domestic economic pressures, failed to reduce the trade deficit, and created openings for China to expand its influence across Asia, Europe, and North America.

Experts argue that the episode underscores the complexity of global trade, where attempts to isolate one player can reverberate across markets and alliances in unforeseen ways.

While the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday against President Donald Trump's use of tariffs marks a clear setback for his use of trade levies as an economic weapon, analysts say it offers little immediate relief for the global economy.

Instead, they expect another bout of activity-crimping confusion combined with near-certainty that Trump will seek other means to replace the raft of global tariffs now struck down as unlawful.

In the meantime, a long list of uncertainties remains - including what new tariffs Trump will seek to impose, whether the funds from the annulled levies will have to be refunded, and whether territories that entered deals with the US to mitigate their impact will see those pacts reopened for review.

Responding to the ruling, Trump announced new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period and acknowledged it was not clear if or when there would be any refunds.

"In general, I think it will just bring in a new period of high uncertainty in world trade, as everybody tries to figure out what the US tariff policy will be going forward," said Varg Folkman, analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank.

"In the end it's going to look pretty much the same."

Economists at ING bank agreed: "The scaffolding has come down, but the building remains under construction. No matter how today's ruling reads, tariffs are here to stay."

Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies. So far, they are estimated to have brought in over $175 billion in funds.

By itself, the ruling chops the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%, trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

Bilateral deals with US could now 'unravel'

Yet no one expects this to remain the status quo: the Trump administration has served notice long before the ruling that it can and will use other legal vehicles to reimpose tariffs.

At the same time, the couple of dozen countries which entered bilateral deals with the US to set tariffs and in some cases invest in the United States - will now assess whether the Supreme Court ruling gives them leverage to renegotiate.

The lawmakers who must ratify the European Union's pact with the United States will do that as soon as Monday, said Bernd Lange, chair of the trade committee of the European Parliament.

"The era of unlimited, arbitrary tariffs ... might now be coming to an end," Lange said on X. "We must now carefully evaluate the ruling and its consequences."

Britain meanwhile expects its privileged trading position with the United States to continue, the government said on Friday of the baseline 10% tariff it agreed with Washington.

Indeed, many countries were learning to live with Trump's tariffs, the bulk of which were being shouldered by Americans, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released this month.

In the most recent update of its regular World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global growth at a "resilient" 3.3% in 2026.

China even reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-US markets as its producers adapted to the Trump onslaught.

Thus, some countries may choose to stick with their existing bilateral deals with the US rather than "inviting the kind of uncertainty we saw in the spring in 2025," EPC's Folkman said of the chaos caused by Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs.

Conversely, Niclas Poitiers, research fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel, noted there were a lot of political question marks over the EU-US trade deal, in which Europe was seen to have backed down and got the short end of the stick.

"There could be circumstances in which the deal unravels," he noted.

Bangladesh's garment exporters welcomed short-term relief after the US Supreme Court scrapped reciprocal tariffs but uncertainty looms large as President Donald Trump increased to 15% the 10% fresh levy he announced immediately after the court ruling.

Industry leaders and economists warn that persistent policy uncertainty in their largest export market could dampen longer-term gains.

Until Friday's ruling, Bangladesh faced a 20% reciprocal tariff on exports to the United States, despite signing — but not ratifying — a bilateral trade agreement that envisaged a 19% rate. Following the court's decision, President Donald Trump immediately declared a flat 10% tariff on all countries for 150 days, a measure that will also apply to Bangladesh. But, a day later, he chose to increase it to its highest ceiling of 15% under the relevant trade clause.

If implemented as announced, Bangladesh's competitive position in the US market would revert to levels seen prior to April 2025. Exporters say the reduced rate could lower import costs for American buyers, potentially translating into lower retail prices for apparel and stronger consumer demand.

Yet they caution that frequent shifts in US tariff policy are unsettling importers. Without clarity over future rates, buyers may avoid placing large, long-term orders and instead opt for smaller consignments to minimise risk exposure.

Agreement in limbo

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the bilateral trade agreement signed with Washington could effectively lapse following the court's ruling. However, analysts believe the United States may still press signatory countries to honour commitments made under the deal, including increased imports of US goods such as arms, wheat, liquefied natural gas and aircraft.

According to Trump, the court has curtailed his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but other statutory avenues remain open for the administration to pursue trade and tariff measures.

The White House has reportedly requested countries including India, the UK and the European Union — all of which have signed trade arrangements with the US — to adhere to concessions granted to Washington under those agreements, despite the shift to a 15% uniform tariff in place of the previously anticipated reciprocal rates.

Experts urge caution, not complacency

Exporters and economists have urged Bangladesh to avoid complacency and closely monitor developments at least until the US midterm elections in November.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's response should be guided by strategy rather than sentiment. He recommended using the 150-day window to identify areas of vulnerability, strengthen compliance with labour and environmental standards, and prepare for potential renegotiations.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, described the development as presenting both opportunities and risks. If the reciprocal tariff framework is invalidated, he said, Bangladesh could seek a review of prior commitments within the agreement's legal provisions — provided exit clauses and notification requirements permit it.

However, he cautioned that the US could still impose uniform tariffs, new non-tariff barriers, quotas or export restrictions. "A sudden withdrawal from the entire agreement could be strategically hazardous," he said, calling for a comprehensive review of existing commitments and preparation for alternative trade restrictions.

Former WTO Cell Director General Md Hafizur Rahman and RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said Bangladesh may face pressure to implement pledges on increased imports of US goods, even though the agreement has not been ratified and is not legally binding.

Industry reaction: relief tempered by risk

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Mahmudul Hasan Babu described the shift as a "lesser of two evils", noting that lower tariffs typically reduce prices and stimulate consumption.

However, he acknowledged that persistent tariff fluctuations are creating uncertainty. "Retailers will not leave shelves empty, but they are likely to import in smaller volumes. Overall exports could actually decline."

Ha-Meem Group Managing Director AK Azad said the 15% levy would not significantly affect Bangladesh, as it is substantially lower than the previous rate.

However, Azad predicted fresh legal challenges in the US against the new tariff regime, suggesting such measures could conflict with global trade rules.

Echoing similar concerns, Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, stressed that the situation remains temporary and unpredictable.

Economist Selim Raihan, professor at the University of Dhaka, said predictability is nearly as important as tariff levels for Bangladesh's garment sector.

"I would not expect a sharp spike in orders immediately, as US buyers typically plan months in advance," he said. While the court ruling may ease legal uncertainty and improve sentiment, he warned that further restrictive trade measures from Washington could disrupt the global trading system and continue to cast a shadow over Bangladesh's export outlook.

Exports from the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest US gateway for ocean trade, fell 8 percent in January to the lowest monthly output in nearly three years, Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Tuesday.

"Exports to China look dismal," Seroka said after the Port of Los Angeles handled 104,297 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded export containers in January.

President Trump's aggressive use of tariffs has upended global trade and retaliatory trade duties from China and other nations have hit US exporters like farmers particularly hard.

Soybean shipments from the Port of Los Angeles to China dropped 80 percent last year, Seroka said, adding that the trade did not improve in November or December, following discussions between representatives of the two nations on the sidelines at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

"There's not much that the United States is exporting to China these days," said trade expert Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of Economics, who added that outgoing US shipments of everything from beef and corn to crude oil and coal also fell in 2025.

Closely watched imports to the Port of Los Angeles came in at 421,594 TEUs in January, down 13 percent from the unusually strong result the year earlier, Seroka said.

So far, imports in February appear relatively flat compared with a year earlier. Imports will slow in March due to China factory closures for the Lunar New Year holiday, he said.

Still, Seroka expects total first-quarter volume at the port to fall less than 10 percent versus the year-earlier quarter, when US importers were rushing in goods before President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on countries like China took effect.

"I don't see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that, and even though holiday sales were softer than we would have liked, I don't see a dire situation," Seroka said, referring to lackluster US December retail sales that signaled potential weakness in consumer spending that drives about 70 percent of the nation's total economic activity.

As growth in traditional markets such as the United States and European Union slows, Bangladesh is accelerating efforts to deepen economic engagement with Africa, with total trade nearing $4 billion.

According to data from the Export Promotion Bureau, the Bangladesh Bank and the National Board of Revenue, African exports to Bangladesh stood at $3.76 billion in the fiscal 2022-23, $2.84 billion in FY24 and $2.90 billion in FY25.

During July-January of FY26, imports reached $2.01 billion.

Bangladesh's exports to Africa also show steady growth – $367 million in FY23, $386.5 million in FY24 and $417.7 million in FY25.

Exports during July-January FY26 totalled $271 million.

Major African import sources include Morocco, South Africa, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Mali and Algeria.

Business leaders say Africa offers stronger growth prospects compared to saturated markets in North America and Europe, particularly in IT-enabled services, pharmaceuticals and garments.

South Africa gains strategic importance

South Africa, a member of BRICS, has emerged as a key partner. Bangladesh's High Commissioner to South Africa, Shah Ahmed Shafi, said Pretoria is increasingly important to Dhaka's diversification strategy.

South Africa, with a population of about 63 million and GDP exceeding $400 billion, is Africa's most industrialised economy. KwaZulu-Natal, its second-largest contributor to GDP after Gauteng, has shown interest in Bangladeshi pharmaceutical investment.

Bangladesh's exports to South Africa rose from $119 million in FY23 to $124.2 million in FY25. South African exports to Bangladesh stood at $176 million in FY25.

Total official economic engagement between the two countries surpassed $800 million in FY25, including trade and remittance flows.

Remittances hit record levels

Remittances from expatriate Bangladeshis in South Africa have surged. In FY25, they sent home over $402.9 million. During July-January FY26 alone, remittances reached nearly $395.4 million, setting a new record.

Officials estimate that up to 30% of remittances flow through informal channels. Roughly 4,00,000–5,00,000 Bangladeshis are believed to reside in South Africa, largely engaged in small and medium businesses.

Bankers suggest that with policy support and incentives, Bangladesh's economic engagement with South Africa could reach $1 billion in 2026.

Expanding multilateral engagement

Commonwealth Observer Group Chair and former Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo recently invited Bangladesh to invest in Africa's jute sector.

Meanwhile, South African High Commissioner to Bangladesh Anil Sooklal stressed the need to enhance trade visibility and people-to-people ties. He highlighted pharmaceuticals, education, culture, sports and private sector collaboration as priority areas.

Honorary Consul Md Solaiman Alam Seth said Bangladesh's steady growth, women's empowerment in garments and resilience in disaster management position it well to expand engagement with Africa's rising economies.

Ahead of Ramadan, prices of essential items have surged at Karwan Bazar, one of Dhaka's main wholesale and retail centres. High-demand iftar goods, such as chickpeas, sugar, dates, cucumber, lemon, and lentils, have risen 10% - 30%.

A market survey shows chickpeas selling at Tk100-110 per kg, up slightly from a few days ago. Packaged sugar is Tk100-105, loose sugar over Tk110, and lentils range from Tk120-180 per kg depending on quality.

Lemon prices have risen to Tk80-100 per set of four, with larger sizes costing more. Cucumbers now sell at Tk100-120 per kg and eggplant at Tk 90-120 per kg.

Prices of spices and cooking ingredients have also risen. Green chillies sell at Tk200-240 per kg, while onions remain steady at Tk60-70 per kg.

Broiler chicken costs Tk190-200 per kg and eggs costs Tk130-160 per dozen. Egg seller Nazmul Hossain said, "We bought eggs at higher prices for Ramadan, but don't expect to make excessive profit."

Merchants said the market for iftar items usually heats up before Ramadan, with wholesale price adjustments, transport costs, and stockpiling driving prices up.

Shajahan Khan of Selim Store told Business Standard, "We are buying everything at higher prices, and transport costs are unavoidable. There isn't much room for extra profit."

Lemon prices have risen to Tk80-120 per four pieces from Tk60-100 last week. Green chillies now sell at Tk180-240 per kg, up from Tk140-180 previously.

Regular Karwan Bazar customer Shahin Ali said, "Prices always rise during Ramadan. This pressure is very hard for us. The government should strengthen market monitoring."

The Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has urged the government to prioritise foreign direct investment (FDI)-friendly policies, backed by structural and regulatory reforms to strengthen investor confidence and ensure sustainable economic growth.

In a press release, the chamber said it stands ready to work closely with the government to improve the investment climate, attract quality foreign investment, support economic reforms, generate employment and reinforce the country’s economic foundations.

The chamber also congratulated the newly formed government following the swearing-in of the cabinet, including Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and other members of the parliament.

FICCI expressed hope that the new leadership’s vision for national progress would translate into timely and effective actions to accelerate economic growth and foster a favourable investment environment.

FICCI President Rupali Chowdhury said the new leadership had assumed office at a defining moment in the country’s history. “We wish the government every success in steering the country forward,” she said.

She emphasised the need to restore investor confidence, improve the ease of doing business, reduce operational costs, ensure policy predictability and pursue business-friendly reforms.

Highlighting the role of foreign direct investment, she said FDI remains critical for driving sustainable growth, creating jobs and enhancing Bangladesh’s global competitiveness.

The number of household deposit accounts containing between Tk 1 crore and Tk 25 crore rose by nearly 8 percent year-on-year in June 2025, reflecting the key role played by households in sustaining the financial system.

According to a Bangladesh Bank (BB) report, these accounts increased to 36,932 as of June 2025, up from 34,258 in June 2024.

The total amount held in these specific deposit tiers rose from Tk 80,200 crore in June 2024 to Tk 82,000 crore in June 2025.

“The deposit base of Bangladesh’s banking sector remained predominantly concentrated in the private sector, reflecting the central role of households and private institutions in sustaining financial intermediation,” BB said in its June 2025 Banking Sector Update report.

The overall number of household deposit accounts grew significantly from 14.2 crore in June 2024 to 15.9 crore in June 2025, an 11.4 percent increase.

Total household deposit volume also expanded significantly, reaching Tk 11.08 lakh crore in June 2025, compared to Tk 9.93 lakh crore in June 2024.

Private sector deposits accounted for 83 percent of the total, of which household deposits alone constituted 55 percent, underscoring the dominance of individual savings.

Other private entities, including corporations and financial auxiliaries, contributed 28 percent, while the public sector held the remaining 17 percent.

Deposits between Tk 2 lakh and Tk 25 lakh increased to Tk 6.04 lakh crore from Tk 5.22 lakh crore. Meanwhile, small-value accounts of up to Tk 2 lakh rose from Tk 13.3 lakh crore to Tk 14.8 lakh crore.

The central bank noted that this expansion demonstrates both quantitative and qualitative growth, driven by retail and middle-tier savers.

“The data also reveal that deposits are heavily concentrated in small-value accounts, signifying broad-based financial inclusion,” BB said.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) expects inflation, which has remained high in recent years, to ease in the coming months due to strong rice and winter vegetable harvests and declining global commodity prices.

In its quarterly report for July-September 2025, published yesterday, the central bank said it, along with other government agencies, has worked hard to control inflation and support lower-income groups.

Measures such as removing Letter of Credit (LC) margin requirements for rice, onions, dates, sugar, pulses, and edible oil imports, along with Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) truck sales, are expected to reduce prices of essential goods.

Favourable Aman rice and winter vegetable production, stable exchange rates, rising foreign reserves, and easing global commodity prices are also likely to help keep inflation in check.

The central bank is expected to gradually ease its tight monetary policy once inflation consistently falls.

The report said that inflationary pressures eased in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, mainly due to ongoing monetary tightening. However, the decline has been slow, and inflation remains above the target, meaning tight policies are likely to continue in the near term.

The 12-month average headline inflation rate fell from 10.03% in June 2025 to 9.45% in September 2025.

Regarding the banking sector, the report said the country’s banks remain under strain, as a sharp deterioration in asset quality -- not seen in decades -- hit profitability and weakened capital.

However, a rebound in deposit growth improved overall liquidity, and BB’s continued support for responsible borrowers, along with banks’ stronger recovery efforts, should help curb the rise of non-performing loans (NPLs).

On the external sector, Bangladesh faced pressure in the first quarter as the current account shifted from surplus to deficit. This was driven by a larger trade deficit and higher external payment obligations, including import costs and interest on external debt.

Strong remittance inflows partly offset the pressure. On the financial account, large net inflows came from foreign direct investment and medium- and long-term borrowing, while portfolio investment remained low.

Even though the overall balance of payments was positive for the quarter, gross official reserves fell slightly, mainly due to valuation effects and lower foreign liabilities of the central bank. Nevertheless, reserve levels remained comfortable, supporting exchange rate stability under the market-based system.

MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited, a concern of MEP Group, will invest Tk 200 crore to set up a modern electrical and electronic products manufacturing facility on nearly 10 acres of land at the National Special Economic Zone in Chattogram.

A land lease agreement was signed between the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) and MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited at Beza’s office in Dhaka’s Agargaon today, according to a press release.

The factory will produce electrical wires, switches and sockets, fans, LED lights, circuit breakers, and other related products, aiming to reduce the country’s reliance on imports and expand local manufacturing capacity.

Established in 1974, MEP Hi-Tech Industrial Park Limited is a business conglomerate with around 2,000 corporate clients and more than 1,000 distribution networks nationwide.

Construction of the project is scheduled to begin in April 2026 and is expected to be completed by December 2028, with commercial production targeted for January 2029.

Once fully operational, the facility is expected to generate employment for around 2,000 people directly and indirectly.

Saleh Ahmed, executive member for investment development at Beza, said the Tk 200 crore investment by a domestic industrial group would support import substitution, export diversification, and technology-driven industrialisation.

Jahangir Alam Chaklader, managing director of MEP Group, said the project would strengthen local production of electrical goods and contribute to the country’s export prospects in the future.

Currently, around 15 industrial units are in operation at the National Special Economic Zone, while about 20 more are under construction.

Newly appointed Labour and Employment Minister Ariful Haque Chowdhury today (18 February) announced a 100-day action plan focused on strengthening labour welfare, improving industrial relations, enhancing workplace safety and ensuring effective implementation of labour laws.

"Our mission is one. People's expectations are high, and we must work accordingly. To deliver results, we have to work as a team," he said while addressing officials and employees of the ministry on his first working day after taking oath as minister.

He stressed that all activities would be guided by the party's election manifesto and existing policy guidelines. "If we work together with sincerity, we will succeed," he added.

The minister said, "The ministry would review activities carried out over the past year to identify gaps and areas needing improvement. This is our country. We must determine what we aim to achieve within the next 100 days."

Addressing officials, he urged them to utilise their experience and strictly follow the Rules of Business in discharging their duties. "We will not go beyond the rules. Inform the appropriate authorities clearly about what is necessary," he said.

Highlighting the upcoming holy month of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, the minister directed officials to remain proactive to prevent labour unrest, particularly in labour-intensive industries and factories.

State Minister for Labour and Employment Nurul Haque Nur, who also joined the meeting, proposed preparing a three-month work plan to demonstrate tangible achievements and ensure stability in the industrial sector ahead of Eid.

Senior officials of the ministry, including Secretary Sarwar Jahan Bhuiyan, were present at the meeting.

Stocks continued their losing streak for a third consecutive session today (18 February), as cautious investors trimmed positions despite the formation of a new government following the 13th parliamentary election.

The benchmark DSEX of the Dhaka Stock Exchange PLC fell 51 points, or 0.92%, to close at 5,519, marking a three-day decline of 81 points.

Market capitalisation dropped by around Tk7,500 crore, reflecting broad-based selling pressure. The DS30 index of blue-chip stocks also fell 16 points, or 0.76%, to settle at 2,110.

Market breadth remained heavily negative, with 286 issues declining, 82 advancing, and 25 unchanged. Turnover tumbled 23% to Tk935 crore, indicating reduced investor participation amid mounting uncertainty.

The market slide comes after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured victory in the 13th parliamentary election and took oath yesterday (17 February).

While the DSEX had surged 200 points on 15 February, the first trading day after the election, initial optimism quickly faded.

Market insiders said investors are cautious, awaiting clarity on leadership at the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC). Uncertainty persists over whether the current chairman and commissioners will remain in their roles or be replaced under the new administration.

EBL Securities said the election-driven rally has retreated for a third straight session, weighed down by persistent profit-booking.

"Market participants are watchful, assessing potential policy directions and the regulatory environment under the newly elected government," the firm added.

Day-long volatility dominated trading as profit-taking continued amid weak buying support. Major blue-chip stocks faced sustained selling pressure, pushing indices further into the red.

Among turnover leaders were Square Pharma, Asiatic Laboratories, Dhaka Bank, City Bank, and Pragati Life Insurance, showing that major stocks continued to dominate trading activity despite the overall decline.

On the gainers' list, Nahee Aluminum rose 9.79%, followed by S Alam Cold Rolled Steels, National Bank, Bangladesh Building System, and Pragati Life Insurance.

However, losers far outnumbered gainers, with Union Capital down 8.33%, Premier Bank 8.19%, Jute Spinners 7.62%, IFIC Bank 7.46%, and Generation Next 7.14%.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange PLC also closed lower. The CSCX index fell 62 points to 9,463, while the CASPI dropped 84 points to 15,429. Turnover at the port city bourse stood at Tk22 crore.

The government has begun the process to seek a deferral of the country’s scheduled graduation from the least developed country (LDC) club at the end of this year, newly appointed Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir said yesterday.

“The process has been initiated by the Ministry of Commerce, and in coordination with the Economic Relations Division (ERD), necessary communications and procedures will be expedited,” a commerce ministry statement said.

Business leaders had been urging the authorities to delay the graduation, prompting the new government to act swiftly.

“Although there was no obligation to send a letter in this regard within the first week, the government has started working on the issue from today [Wednesday],” the minister told journalists after assuming office at the Secretariat in Dhaka.

He said about 85 percent of the country’s export earnings still come from apparel. This overreliance has slowed export growth.

Stressing the need to broaden the export base, Muktadir said the government would support private sector investment to help open up new markets.

Asked about market conditions during Ramadan, Muktadir sought to reassure consumers. If supplies remain steady, he said, prices should stay stable.

“The government has sufficient stock of essential commodities for the month of Ramadan and the period afterwards, and there is more in the pipeline. Therefore, there is no reason to panic,” he added.

The minister acknowledged that prices of some goods tend to rise at the beginning of the month of fasting for Muslims, often because of a sudden spike in demand. However, he said such pressures usually do not last very long.

Responding to a question on whether the proximity of Ramadan to the new administration taking office posed a challenge, he said the month would be a major test. The government must meet public expectations and deliver.

On investment, the minister said uncertainty deters both foreign and domestic investors. A stable environment is essential. Investors commit capital only when they are confident of reasonable returns on their investment and labour.

Muktadir also pointed to demographic pressures. Around 20 to 22 lakh people enter the labour market each year. Weak investment over the past two to three years has added strain to the economy. Unless reversed quickly, he said, it could threaten jobs and growth.

State Minister for Commerce Md Shariful Alam and Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman were also present.

Shares of S Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited surged 9.59% today (18 February) to close at Tk16 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange PLC (DSE), capping a sharp rally that has seen the stock gain 50% so far in February.

Since 1 February, the company's share price climbed from Tk10.7 to Tk16 as of today, despite ongoing operational and financial challenges. Yesterday (17 February) saw some 14.31 lakh shares traded, with a turnover of Tk2.23 crore.

The rally comes even after the DSE downgraded the company from "B" to "Z" category on 4 January 2026 under a directive of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC). The downgrade followed the company's failure to hold its annual general meeting within the stipulated timeframe.

In line with another BSEC directive, stockbrokers and merchant bankers have been instructed to refrain from providing margin loan facilities to purchase the company's shares from the same date.

Company officials have attributed the non-holding annual general meeting due to the absence of its directors. They also reported operational disruptions due to raw material shortages, caused by difficulties in opening letters of credit as banks were uncooperative.

The firm, the only listed entity under the controversial S Alam Group, recently disclosed that its bank accounts have been frozen and that restrictions on opening LCs have severely hampered production.

Several banks, including Janata Bank and Islami Bank, have initiated processes to auction the company's assets to recover mounting defaulted loans.

Financial disclosures paint a challenging picture. For the first nine months of FY24, the company reported revenue of Tk388.82 crore, down 18% year-on-year, while profit plunged 56% to Tk2.50 crore.

In FY23, it posted a net profit of Tk4.78 crore and declared a 5% cash dividend.

However, the company has yet to publish its annual accounts for FY24 and FY25 and has also missed the deadline for releasing its first-quarter FY25 financial statements.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has formally urged the government to safeguard the interests of general investors as the financial sector undergoes a major restructuring involving the merger of five banks and the liquidation of nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).

In two separate letters sent on 10 February to the Financial Institutions Division of the finance ministry, the capital market regulator argued that small and retail shareholders bear no responsibility for the governance failures or financial crises currently plaguing these listed entities.

The BSEC emphasised that ensuring a "minimum financial interest" for these investors is essential before any final decisions on restructuring, mergers, or liquidations are executed.

The five listed banks that have been merged are First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Union Bank, Social Islami Bank and Exim Bank. All are listed on the stock exchange and have attracted substantial retail investment.

According to the BSEC, the combined free-float market capitalisation of the five banks stands at approximately Tk900 crore, with an average free-float shareholding of around 76%.

Referring to Section 77 of the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, the commission noted that liability for financial collapse rests with individuals or groups identified under the law – not with general shareholders.

The commission emphasised that relying solely on balance sheet assets and liabilities would not present a true financial picture in the case of mergers. Intangible assets such as banking licences, nationwide branch networks, depositor and customer bases, skilled human resources, technological capacity, service infrastructure, and brand value must also be considered in determining fair valuation and merger ratios.

The BSEC further proposed including recoverable amounts from collateral against disbursed loans and from the seizure of assets – both movable and immovable – belonging to responsible individuals. After determining the total asset value, a minimum interest value should be set for general investors.

Excluding shares held by those deemed responsible under Section 77, the merger ratio should be determined based on whichever is higher between market value and face value for other general shareholders, said the BSEC.

The regulator clearly stated that the banks should not be delisted from the stock exchange without announcing this minimum interest value and share acquisition price. Delisting without adequate disclosure could create long-term distrust in the capital market. It also stressed the need for clear guidelines regarding the future operational structure of subsidiaries of the concerned banks.

The letter noted that while the government and the Bangladesh Bank are taking measures to maintain depositor confidence, a similar protection framework for small investors is lacking. Without such safeguards, future capital raising in the financial sector could be negatively affected. Since capital formation through the stock market depends heavily on investor confidence, any erosion of trust could destabilise the market in the long run, it said.

Liquidation of nine NBFIs

Eight of the listed institutions on the liquidation list are FAS Finance & Investment Limited, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company Limited, Premier Leasing & Finance Limited, Fareast Finance & Investment Limited, GSP Finance Company (Bangladesh) Limited, Prime Finance & Investment Limited, Peoples Leasing & Financial Services Limited, and International Leasing & Financial Services Limited. Their shares have been traded in the capital market for years, attracting thousands of investors.

Aviva Finance Limited is also among the institutions undergoing liquidation; however, as it is not listed, it was not mentioned in the letter.

The total free-float market capitalisation of these financial institutions is approximately Tk175.37 crore, with an average free-float shareholding of around 70%.

Calling for maximum transparency in the liquidation process, the BSEC urged timely disclosure to investors regarding the liquidation scheme, reasons for liquidation, asset sale procedures, and creditor priorities. The commission also stressed the need to formally notify stock exchanges about trade suspensions and to regularly update the public on progress.

As with the banks, the BSEC recommended considering not only balance sheet assets but also recoverable amounts from loan collateral and confiscated assets of responsible individuals. It reiterated that, in determining minimum interest for general shareholders, the higher of market value or face value should serve as the basis. Ignoring investors entirely in the liquidation process would send a negative message to the market.

The letter further stated that if the government provides compensation to depositors or any other stakeholders, allocations for investors should also be considered. It proposed including the capital market regulator in policy-level discussions related to liquidation to ensure investors' positions are properly represented.

According to the BSEC, if the burden of crises caused by weak governance and irregularities in the financial sector is shifted onto general investors, it will create long-term distrust in the capital market. Retail investors who entered the market with small savings must receive fair protection; otherwise, attracting new investors in the future will become difficult. This could weaken the capital market's role as an alternative source of capital formation for the financial sector.

Overall, the BSEC has urged that transparency, realistic asset valuation, and protection of the minimum interests of general investors be prioritised in the merger of five banks and the liquidation of nine NBFIs.

The regulator expects that its recommendations will be considered before final decisions are made, ensuring both financial sector restructuring and sustained stability and confidence in the capital market.

Despite a reduction in import duties aimed at stabilising the market ahead of Ramadan, consumers are yet to see any relief in date prices.

Over the past 10 days, wholesale prices of dates have increased by Tk50 to Tk70 per kg, with some retail prices rising by as much as Tk100 per kg.

Meanwhile, prices of other Ramadan essentials have also begun climbing at the capital's key wholesale and retail hub, Karwan Bazar.

On 24 December last year, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced customs duty on date imports from 25% to 15%. In addition, advance income tax on fruit imports was cut from 10% to 5% in the previous budget.

The reduced rates will remain effective until 31 March.

The government said the move was intended to keep prices of dates and other essentials stable ahead of Ramadan, but market observations suggest otherwise.

Today (18 February), a visit to Chattogram's largest fruit wholesale market, Falmundi, revealed sharp increases across varieties to date. 'Bosta' dates, which sold at Tk147 per kg 10 days ago, are now trading at Tk220 per kg.

The popular 10kg carton of Zahidi dates, previously priced between Tk1,700 and Tk1,800, now sells for Tk2,150-Tk2,500.

A 5kg pack of Maryam dates has risen from Tk4,700 to Tk5,000. Mabroom (3kg) increased to Tk3,900 from Tk3,600, while 5kg Medjool now costs Tk5,800, up from Tk5,500. Safawi and Dabbas varieties have also become more expensive.

Ali Ahmed, a retail trader at Falmundi, said smaller sellers were struggling to cope. "If wholesale prices go up by Tk70 per kg, how can we keep retail prices low? Customers blame us," he said.

According to NBR data, nearly 47,000 tonnes of dates have been imported over the past four months. The Ministry of Commerce estimates Ramadan demand at between 60,000 and 80,000 tonnes.

Importers argue that many consignments were opened under letters of credit before the duty cut took effect, meaning they paid the higher rate. They also cite delays at Chattogram Port due to labour unrest, election holidays, demurrage charges and temporary supply shortages.

However, Mohammad Shafiul Azam Tipu, owner of SK Traders, said the duty reduction has actually prevented prices from rising further. "The market is comparatively stable because of the reduced duty. Otherwise prices would have been even higher," he claimed.

But, SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the duty cut had not brought relief because of weak monitoring. "Without strict action against syndicates and hoarders, prices will not stabilise," he said.

In Dhaka's Karwan Bazar, prices of other Ramadan essentials are also climbing.

Chickpeas are selling at Tk90-Tk100 per kg, lentils at Tk95-Tk120, and sugar at around Tk105 per kg. Cucumbers and brinjals are priced at Tk100-Tk120 per kg, while lemons cost Tk80-Tk120 for four.

Green chillies are selling for Tk180-Tk240 per kg. Broiler chicken is priced at Tk190-Tk200 per kg, and eggs at Tk130-Tk160 per dozen.

Traders attribute the increases to higher wholesale prices, transport costs and pre-Ramadan stocking. Consumers say prices rise every year before Ramadan despite what they describe as adequate supply, pointing to ineffective market monitoring.

Meanwhile, the government has announced plans to sell dressed broiler chicken at Tk245 per kg, beef at Tk650 per kg, pasteurised milk at Tk80 per litre and eggs at Tk8 each during Ramadan.

The Trading Corporation of Bangladesh will also sell edible oil, sugar, lentils, chickpeas and dates through designated dealers and mobile trucks.

AHM Safiquzzaman, president of Consumer Association of Bangladesh and a former secretary, today said the government has the authority under the Essential Commodities Act of 1956 to fix prices for 23 essential goods. "But in practice, price controls are applied only to a limited number of items," he said, also questioning the effectiveness of the Competition Commission.

Analysts say stabilising food prices during Ramadan will be a major test for the new government, as rising costs continue to squeeze lower- and middle-income households.

On their very first day in office under the leadership of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, members of the new cabinet outlined a range of plans aimed at transforming the country.

These include ending mob culture, stabilising the law and order situation, controlling commodity prices, improving the power and energy sectors, building a democratic economy, preventing bribery and corruption, and ensuring better standards in health and education.

Although implementing these plans will require time, the new cabinet has pledged to execute a 180-day action plan focused on controlling prices, improving electricity and energy supplies, and restoring normalcy in law and order.

This morning (18 February), after laying wreaths at the National Memorial and at the graves of martyred president Ziaur Rahman and former prime minister Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and his ministers began entering the Secretariat after noon. They were welcomed with bouquets by secretaries and senior officials of their respective ministries.

Ministers shared both their personal and government agendas with journalists. Some also spoke to reporters again after the cabinet meeting at 3pm while returning to their offices.

Analysts say the government's top three priorities are timely.

Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), views the ministers' initial plans and remarks positively. "If the government succeeds in reducing prices, improving power and energy supplies, and strengthening law and order, many other crises will also ease," she said.

"If the ministers can implement the plans they mentioned — such as reducing commodity prices, stopping re-admission fees for students promoted to the next class, postponing LDC graduation, implementing a pay commission, abolishing the FID to restore transparency in the banking sector, and ending mob incidents — people will be extremely happy. This would bring about a fundamental transformation in the country," she said.

Responding to journalists at the Secretariat, BNP Secretary General and Local Government Minister Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, along with BNP Standing Committee member and Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed, issued a stern warning that mob incidents would no longer be tolerated under any circumstances. They also emphasised the importance of improving the law and order situation.

Khandaker Abdul Muqtadir pledged not to deliver mere "sound bites" while working to prevent market syndicates and stabilise the market, saying instead that he would demonstrate results through action.

He stated that the government would take effective measures to monitor the market and control supply. According to him, the current stock of goods and those in the pipeline are sufficient to keep the market stable during Ramadan and afterward. There is no reason for concern.

The new Finance Minister, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, spoke of ending patronage-based economics and establishing a democratic economic system. He also mentioned plans for deregulation to reduce legal complexities in order to improve the investment and business climate, as well as measures to increase revenue collection.

Law Minister Md Asaduzzaman said efforts would be made to reduce suffering in the judiciary. Advising that judges whose salaries are insufficient should consider leaving their posts, the former top state law officer signalled a firm stance on establishing the rule of law.

Education Minister ANM Ehsanul Haque announced that from now on, no new admission fees may be charged from students promoted to the next class. He said the education sector needs not only a "high jump" but "more and more jumps."
PM asks ministers to undertake 180-day action plan to implement election pledges

Sitting beside Oxford graduate State Minister Bobby Hajjaj, he added that instead of repeatedly changing the curriculum as in the past, it would be reviewed to ensure world-class education.

New Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain Bokul declared plans to build a corruption-free health ministry. He said no syndicates would be allowed to operate in the ministry, no corruption would be tolerated, and no work would be done under pressure. "We will work for the welfare of the people," he said.

He also warned that doctors cannot report to a 9am office at noon. Within one month, initiatives will be taken to ensure that physicians are present at their workplaces at the designated time.

The United States announced Tuesday a first tranche of investments by Japan out of a colossal $550 billion promised by Tokyo in its trade deal with President Donald Trump.

The commitments of $36 billion for three infrastructure projects came as Japan comes under pressure to deliver on its pledges made in 2025 in return for lower US trade tariffs.

“Japan is now officially, and financially, moving forward with the FIRST set of Investments under its $550 BILLION Dollar Commitment to invest in the United States of America,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“The scale of these projects are so large, and could not be done without one very special word, TARIFFS,” he wrote.

The announcement came ahead of a scheduled trip by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the White House next month following Trump’s visit to Japan in October.

Takaichi said Wednesday the projects would “strengthen the Japan-US alliance by enabling Japan and the United States to jointly build resilient supply chains in strategically important areas for economic security -- such as critical minerals, energy, and AI/data centers”.

“We believe these initiatives truly embody the purpose of this Strategic Investment Initiative, namely the promotion of mutual benefit between Japan and the United States, the enhancement of economic security, and the promotion of economic growth,” Takaichi said on X.

“Going forward, we will continue to work closely together between Japan and the United States to further refine the details of each project and ensure that they can be implemented promptly and smoothly,” she added.

The projects are a natural gas facility in Ohio, a deep-water oil export facility in the Gulf of Mexico, and a synthetic diamond manufacturing facility.

US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick called the announcements the “MASSIVE AMERICA FIRST TRADE WIN”.

The natural gas generation facility will be the “largest in history”, generating 9.2 gigawatts of power, Lutnick said on X.

Takaichi said that it would supply electricity to AI data centers and similar facilities.

At full capacity it would be the equivalent of nine nuclear reactors or the power consumed by about 7.4 million homes, Bloomberg News reported.

The oil project will generate $20–30 billion annually in US crude exports and “reinforce America’s position as the world’s leading energy supplier,” Lutnick said.

The facility making synthetic diamond grit -- where China dominates supplies -- will ensure that the United States is no longer reliant on foreign imports, Lutnick said.

“Japan is providing the capital (for all three projects). The infrastructure is being built in the United States,” the US commerce secretary added.

“The proceeds are structured so Japan earns its return, and America gains strategic assets, expanded industrial capacity, and strengthened energy dominance,” he said.

‘REBUILD AND EXPAND’

In July, Tokyo had agreed to invest $550 billion through 2029 “to rebuild and expand core American industries,” according to the White House.

The pledge was made in exchange for reducing threatened US tariffs of 25 percent to 15 percent on Japanese imports.

Japanese trade minister Ryosei Akazawa has said that only one to two percent of the $550 billion would be actual capital.

The rest will be made up of bonds and loans from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and credits with public guarantees.

The clock has been ticking ahead of Takaichi’s planned White House visit on March 19, and according to media reports, tempers were starting to fray.

In January, Trump told South Korea -- meant to invest $350 billion -- that he would raise tariffs because it was “not living up to its Deal”.

Analysts say that Japanese companies may be wary because of lack of clarity on the administrative and financial procedures and concerns about US labor shortages.