Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains, threatening the availability of raw materials, pushing up freight costs and raising concerns over production stability.

The issue was highlighted at the inaugural session of the 17th Asia Pharma Expo 2026 and Asia Lab Expo 2026, held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Center in Dhaka’s Purbachal yesterday.

Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain, who inaugurated the three-day exposition as the chief guest, said the government is closely monitoring the evolving situation and stressed that ensuring access to quality medicines remains a top priority.

He also reiterated a zero-tolerance stance on corruption and irregularities in the sector.

Industry leaders said the Gulf region unrest has already started to affect the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other essential inputs, many of which rely on complex shipping routes through the Middle East.

“The war has disrupted logistics, increased freight costs and caused shipment delays,” said Abdul Muktadir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI).

“Rerouting of sea and air cargo is making imports more expensive and unpredictable.”

The disruption is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials despite its strong domestic manufacturing base. Prolonged instability could drive up production costs and put pressure on medicine prices in the coming months, industry insiders said.

According to BAPI, the industry now meets nearly 98 percent of domestic demand and exports medicines to more than 120 countries, reflecting steady expansion over the past decade.

Bangladesh currently exports around $300 million worth of medicines annually and is emerging as a growing player in the global pharmaceutical market.

However, sustaining this momentum will depend on the sector’s ability to navigate external shocks and ensure an uninterrupted supply of inputs.

Muktadir stressed the urgency of accelerating the development of a domestic API industry to reduce reliance on imports.

“The current situation highlights our vulnerability. Policy support is essential to strengthen local capacity,” he said.

He warned that if the conflict persists, rising freight costs and supply uncertainties could erode profit margins and disrupt production cycles, with smaller manufacturers likely to face greater pressure.

Despite the challenges, Bangladesh has so far managed to keep medicine prices relatively lower than in neighbouring countries, supported by strong local production and regulatory oversight, he added.

Md Shameem Haidar, director general of the Directorate General of Drug Administration, said the industry continues to maintain quality and effectiveness, although global disruptions pose new risks.

Industry insiders estimate the market size has already exceeded $3.5 billion, which could surpass $6 billion by 2026, driven by annual growth of 15 to 18 percent.

However, they cautioned that geopolitical tensions could test the sector’s resilience in the near term.

Embracing the slogan "Go Digital, Go Green", NCC Bank has launched a fully digital and eco-friendly savings account named "NCC NeoX" under its retail banking portfolio.

The bank said the initiative's main objective is to promote sustainable banking practices while ensuring modern, convenient digital banking services for customers.

Through the NCC NeoX account, customers can open accounts entirely online, complete e-KYC verification, and use a recyclable debit card. Funds deposited in the account will be invested in green initiatives, including renewable energy, waste management and sustainable agriculture.

The service was inaugurated at the bank's annual business conference by Chairman Md Nurun Newaz Salim.

The event was attended by Vice-Chairman Engineer Abdus Salam; Director and former chairman Amjadul Ferdous Chowdhury; Director and former vice-chairman Tanzina Ali; Director Syed Asif Nizamuddin; Director and Chairman of the Executive Committee Khairul Alam Chaklader; Directors Md Moinuddin, Mohammed Sazzad Un Newaz, Shamima Newaz, Morshedul Alam Chaklader and Nahid Banu; Independent Director Meer Sajed-Ul-Basher, FCA; Independent Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee Md Amirul Islam, FCS, FCA; Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin; Additional Managing Director M Khurshed Alam; Deputy Managing Director Md Habibur Rahman; and Head of the Retail Banking Unit S M Tanvir Hasan.

Md Nurun Newaz Salim said the bank remains committed to advancing environmentally friendly banking practices and contributing to global sustainable development goals.

He said, "The NCC NeoX Savings Account offers customers an important opportunity to engage in green financing. Through this, they can enjoy modern digital banking benefits while also contributing to environmental protection."

He added that the launch of the account reaffirmed NCC Bank's commitment to innovation, sustainable development, and responsible banking, and would help build a greener, more digitally empowered future.

Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin said, "The NCC NeoX account reflects the bank's dedication to digital transformation and sustainable banking."

He said the service would not only provide customers with a modern digital banking experience, but also make them partners in long-term economic and environmental well-being by supporting environmentally friendly initiatives.

Customers of the NCC NeoX account will enjoy digital banking facilities, competitive interest rates, free internet banking and SMS alerts, along with recognition as green banking partners.

Bank Asia PLC, a listed private bank, is set to acquire the Bangladesh operations of Bank Alfalah in a deal valued at Tk 580 crore, equivalent to approximately $47.5 million.

According to a disclosure published by Bank Alfalah at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the decision was approved by 96.5 percent of its shareholders at the annual general meeting held on March 26.

The acquisition is contingent upon approval from the Bangladesh Bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, and other relevant regulatory bodies, as well as consent from Bank Asia’s shareholders. To this end, Bank Asia will hold an extraordinary general meeting on April 12.

In May last year, Bank Asia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Bank Alfalah to acquire its Bangladesh operations, subject to regulatory approval and completion of legal formalities.

The sale process began in April last year. Legal formalities for the transfer of assets and liabilities are still pending, while core banking system migration must also be aligned.

The audit and valuation of Bank Alfalah’s Bangladesh operations were conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Bangladesh, a UK-based multinational tax, audit, and consulting firm.

Bank Asia, which began its journey in 1999, is a pioneer in agent banking services in Bangladesh. If the acquisition is completed, it will be the third such takeover by Bank Asia in its 26 years of operation.

In 2001, the bank acquired the operations of the Canada-based Bank of Nova Scotia in Dhaka -- the first of its kind in Bangladesh’s banking history, according to Bank Asia’s website. It later took over the Bangladesh operations of Muslim Commercial Bank Ltd, a renowned Pakistani bank.

Bank Alfalah is incorporated in Pakistan, with its main capital base coming from Abu Dhabi Investment Funds. Over 51 percent of its equity is held by the Abu Dhabi Royal Family. The bank began operations in Bangladesh in 2005 and currently has seven branches in the country.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse declined further today (29 March) as investor sentiment weakened amid the escalating US-Israeli war on Iran.

Since the war began on 28 February, most trading sessions have witnessed sell-offs, dragging down share prices and overall market capitalisation, although a brief rebound was recorded in the first session after the Eid holiday on 25 March when the benchmark index gained 31 points.

Yesterday, the DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, fell by 44 points to close at 5,272, as investors adopted a cautious stance, leading to declines in 63% of traded stocks.

Besides that, DSES, the Shariah index declined 7 points to 1,066, and DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 21 points to 1,998.

Despite cautious sentiment in the market, turnover on the DSE surged 7% to Tk646 crore, while market capitalisation – the total value of companies' outstanding shares – dropped by Tk3,268 crore to Tk6.95 lakh crore.

Of the traded stocks, 114 advanced, 250 declined and 30 remained unchanged.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said the capital bourse failed to extend the recovery momentum as investors continued their cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties stemming from the Middle East conflict, triggering a broad-based sell-off across the trading board.

"The market opened on a dismal note as selling pressure remained predominant from the opening bell. Despite an attempt for partial recovery from the initial plunge, the market largely remained under sustained downward pressure throughout the session, with most scrips closing in negative territory," it said.

On the sectoral front, the Pharmaceutical and the Chemical sectors issues exerted the highest by 17.6% in total turnover, followed by the Engineering sector 12.9% and the Bank 9.9%.

Sectors displayed mixed returns, out of which the Paper, the Ceramic and the Mutual Fund exhibited the most positive returns on the bourse.

Bangladesh Autocars topped the gainer chart with its share price surging by 6.91% to Tk185.1 each, followed by BD Thai Foods by 9.30% to Tk18.8 each, PHP Mutual Fund One by 9.09% to Tk3.6 each, Techno Drugs by 8.91% to Tk33 each and IFIC First Mutual Fund by 8.33% to Tk3.9 each.

While on the loser list, Prime Textile was at the top as its share price fell 6.86% to Tk19 each, followed by Sea Pearl Beach Resorts by 5.14% to Tk38.7 each, Orion Infusion by 4.61% to Tk343 each, ICB Agrani First Mutual Fund by 4.34% to Tk6.6 each, and Phoenix Finance by 4.25% to Tk4.5 each.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also settled in a negative zone. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) lost 165.4 points and 245.9 points, respectively.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged ⁠vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed.

India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary ⁠in the federal shipping ministry, said.

LPG carriers Jag Vikram, Green Asha and Green Sanvi are still in the western Strait of Hormuz, LSEG data show.

India, the world's second-largest ​LPG importer, ​is battling its worst ⁠gas crisis in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield ​households from any shortage of cooking gas.

The country ​consumed ⁠33.15 million metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. ⁠About ​90 percent of those imports came ​from the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded ​in the Gulf.

Gold demand in India saw a slight ‌uptick this week as softer bullion prices attracted some buyers, though many remained cautious and held off for further price drop, while premiums in China narrowed as physical demand slowed.

Bullion dealers in India offered discounts of up to $61 ​per ounce over official domestic gold prices this week, down from as much as $75 last ​week. These prices include 6 percent import duty and 3 percent sales tax.

Meanwhile, spot gold experienced volatile trading, flitting between $4,100 and $4,600 per ounce. Prices briefly touched a four-month low of $4,097.99 ​on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and growing expectations of hawkish US monetary policy.

“Falling prices are ​helping revive interest in gold. However, prices remain well above levels seen last year, and many buyers are postponing purchases in hopes of a bigger fall,” a Kolkata-based jeweller said.

Gold prices in India were trading around 141,000 rupees ​per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to 169,880 rupees earlier this month. Volatility in the rupee ​and global prices left jewellers sidelined, with many waiting until the financial year-end to make fresh purchases, said a ‌Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $3.50 an ounce.

Singapore set out plans on Friday to turn the city state into a gold trading hub for the whole of Asia, with regulators and industry players working together to strengthen the ​market’s trading, clearing and ​storage infrastructure.

In top consumer ⁠China, bullion traded at premiums of $14-$18 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, narrowing from a $10-$22 premium last week.

“Physical demand has cooled, reflected in lower ​premiums, but the market remains underpinned by central bank buying and quota ​restrictions,” said ⁠Bernard Sin, regional director of Greater China at MKS PAMP, adding that the unresolved Middle East conflict has tarnished gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset.

“China’s divergence is clear: while global headwinds weigh on gold, domestic ⁠resilience persists, ​sustained by policy, cultural demand, and structural supply constraints.”

In ​Hong Kong, physical gold traded at par to premiums of $1.90, while in Japan , gold was sold at par with spot prices.

Persistent delays in claim settlements by major general insurers are eroding public confidence in Bangladesh's insurance sector, as official data show insurers paid just 9.37% of total claims in the final quarter of 2025.

Data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) show general insurers settled only Tk372 crore out of claims worth Tk3,971 crore filed between October and December 2025.

Industry analysts said the massive backlog highlights deep structural weaknesses, including limited financial capacity, poor liquidity management and operational inefficiencies.

Sadharan Bima settles just 3.41%

Among the largest insurers, the state-owned Sadharan Bima Corporation recorded the highest volume of pending claims. During the quarter, it faced claims totalling Tk2,264 crore but settled only Tk77 crore, representing just 3.41% of the total. As a result, Tk2,187 crore remained unsettled.

A senior official of the corporation, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the organisation is trying to resolve claims but faces structural obstacles that slow the process.

He said roughly 80% of delays occur because survey reports – crucial documents used to assess damage after accidents or disasters – are often submitted late.

The problem is particularly severe for reinsurance-related claims. In some cases, survey reports take five to seven years to arrive, making it impossible to complete final settlements, he said.

"Without these reports, the corporation cannot settle claims with foreign reinsurers, which in turn delays compensation for policyholders," the official added.

He warned that unless the survey system becomes faster and more efficient, the settlement crisis will persist across the general insurance industry.

Private insurers also lag

During the October-December quarter, Green Delta Insurance settled only Tk13 crore out of Tk342 crore in claims, leaving around Tk330 crore unresolved. Its settlement rate stood at just 3.67%.

Despite the low settlement ratio, the company declared a 27% cash dividend for shareholders in 2025, drawing criticism from policyholders who said firms prioritise shareholder returns over client payments.

Reliance Insurance faced similar criticism. It settled Tk20.41 crore out of Tk161 crore in claims during the quarter, leaving Tk141 crore pending, yet approved a 30% cash dividend.

Other insurers also showed weak performance. Pragati Insurance had Tk200 crore in claims but resolved only Tk17 crore, while Peoples Insurance settled just Tk0.52 crore out of Tk89 crore. Northern Islami Insurance paid Tk1.7 crore against claims worth Tk70.92 crore.

A senior official of Green Delta told TBS that delays often occur because policyholders fail to submit complete documentation. Many file claims on time but do not provide proof of loss, police or fire service reports, survey assessments, ownership papers or invoices.

Incomplete or incorrect paperwork complicates verification and can delay settlements for months, he said, adding that disputes over claim amounts are another factor.

"When policyholders demand compensation exceeding the insurer's assessed loss, disagreements often lead to arbitration or legal proceedings, prolonging the process," he added.

Claims involving uninsured risks also create complications, he said. In some cases, policyholders file for losses not covered under policies, including damages from political unrest, certain natural disasters or gradual asset deterioration.

"Such cases require reassessment and explanation, which extends settlement timelines," he explained.

Weak enforcement, lack of accountability

Experts said documentation issues alone cannot explain the scale of the problem. They argued that weak regulatory enforcement and a lack of accountability allow insurers to delay payments with little consequence.

The IDRA has faced criticism from industry observers and consumer groups for failing to take strong action against companies that consistently postpone settlements.

The delays are particularly damaging in the non-life sector, where timely compensation is critical for businesses and individuals recovering from accidents, fires or natural disasters. When claims remain unpaid for months or years, policyholders are often forced to absorb losses, causing severe financial stress.

By law, insurers must settle valid claims within 90 days. In practice, industry sources said this rule is frequently ignored.

Role of reinsurance provider

Another structural factor behind the delays is the role of the state-owned reinsurer, Sadharan Bima Corporation. Under current rules, general insurers must reinsure 50% of their risk exposure with the corporation, while the remainder can be transferred to foreign reinsurers.

Industry insiders said delays by the state reinsurer in settling its share often prevent primary insurers from paying policyholders on time, trapping the process in a complex chain involving surveyors, insurers, reinsurers and regulators.

When the entire financial industry has been grappling with high levels of default loans, Alliance Finance, a joint-venture financial institution with Sri Lankan investment in Bangladesh, has managed to keep its default rate within 1% through prudent risk management.

In its first four years of operation, the company recorded no default loans at all, said Kanti Kumar Saha, CEO of Alliance Finance, while delivering his address at an event marking the company's eighth anniversary, held at a city hotel today (28 March).

People's Leasing and Finance, a subsidiary of Sri Lanka's largest state-owned bank, People's Bank, holds a major stake in Alliance Finance. Local sponsors include leading corporates and individuals such as Summit Group, Rangs Group, Alliance Holdings Limited, Green Delta Insurance Company Limited and Concept Knitting.

According to its annual report, the company's loan book stood at over Tk468 crore as of December 2024, while total deposits exceeded Tk432 crore. At a time when most non-bank financial institutions have been struggling to survive amid significant losses, Alliance Finance reported a net asset value per share of Tk11.54 at the end of 2024.

Jowher Rizvi, chairman of Alliance Finance, credited the management team for maintaining the default loan ratio at around 1% despite various challenges, describing it as a significant achievement.

He noted that one of the key factors behind this success was the absence of board-level interference in operational matters. "If you want to successfully run your company, do not allow the board to intervene, which we strictly follow," he said. "As chairman, I do not even have an office room at the company, as board members only attend meetings."

Saha outlined three core strengths of the institution. "Our strengths are mainly three: first, a board comprising highly educated and successful business leaders who have guided the institution to its current position; second, strong liquidity management and an unwavering commitment to depositors to return their funds on time – Alliance Finance has never failed in its commitments to its valued depositors and lenders; and third, a well-trained and experienced workforce capable of navigating challenging conditions," he said.

He further noted that although the industry has been going through a difficult period with very high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), Alliance Finance did not record any non-performing investments (NPIs) during its first four years of operations. "Although we experienced some thereafter, we have managed to keep it within 1% over the past four years," he added.

"Despite a decline in loan demand for various reasons, Alliance Finance (AFPLC) has maintained its growth trajectory over the years without any major disruptions. The same applies to profitability trends and the continuity of dividend payments to shareholders," he said.

"Alliance Finance has also maintained its long-term credit rating at AA- and short-term rating at ST-2 for the past two consecutive years, despite volatility in the financial sector, during which many companies experienced downgrades."

He expressed confidence that the ratings would improve further in the coming days.

Outlining the company's business strategy, Saha said, "Alliance Finance has entered into various strategic alliances with leading microfinance institutions (MFIs) to reach women and CMSME clients, extending agricultural and sustainable finance in rural areas. It has also signed agreements with various departments of the central bank for refinancing and pre-financing schemes. As a result, more than 20% of AFPLC's funding sources now come from refinancing, which has helped keep our cost of funds low."

He projected that the future of the financial sector would be driven by financial technology (fintech).

"We launched our Core Business Solutions (CBS) two and a half years ago to provide seamless services to our valued customers and to ensure data integrity. We are among the top five finance companies to roll out e-KYC and, more recently, fully digital platforms to facilitate real-time transactions," he said.

"We have already established platforms enabling clients to make payments and collections through mobile financial service operators. As a result, depositors can pay installments and borrowers can settle EMIs quickly via their mobile phones," he added.

Major stock indexes eased on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose above $105 a barrel, with Iran's denial of any talks with the US dimming hopes of a quick resolution to the nearly one-month-long Middle East war.

Global debt markets also sold off, pushing yields higher, while safe-haven buying boosted the US dollar.

Prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East fanned worries about energy supply disruptions. Oil and European natural gas rose, with Brent futuresLCOc1 up $4.77 at $106.99 a barrel and US crude futures CLc1 up at $93.64.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday to "get serious" about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but that there were no talks on winding down the war. Iran on Thursday launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel.

The war, triggered by US–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Stocks fell "as oil prices resumed their upward climb", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

"Unfortunately, we're in a market that's being driven by oil prices. The rhetoric back and forth is continuing, and until talks begin, the market is going to be subject to the price of oil," he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 75.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to 46,342.69, the S&P 500 fell 43.59 points, or 0.68 percent, to 6,547.14 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 216.95 points, or 1.02 percent, to 21,705.16.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS dropped 6.75 points, or 0.68 percent, to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.64 percent.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3 percent, while worries over rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which slumped 3.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9 percent and China's blue chips dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philippines held an unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil, while Germany's central bank head said an ECB rate hike next month was "an option".

Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, further supporting the dollar.

Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, rose after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries about persistent inflation also drove US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last up 4.2 basis points at 4.37 percent. The two-year note's yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 bps at 3.934 percent.

Earlier, the yield on Japan's two-year government bond JP2YT=RR hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33 percent, as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

In currencies, the US dollar rose against most major currencies, reviving its safe-haven appeal.

Oil prices ​rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the ‌month-old Iran war.

Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2 percent, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5 percent, to settle at $99.64.

The Brent benchmark has jumped 53 percent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel ​launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45 percent since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained ​about 0.3 percent, while WTI gained over 1 percent.

Traders are cautious about Trump’s statements about the Iran talks. An Iranian official told Reuters that a US proposal conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan ​was “one-sided and unfair”.

“Investors remain focused on the war’s longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged closure of ​the strait (of Hormuz) or damage to infrastructure keeping a significant risk premium in prices,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.

While Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, ​the US has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether ​to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. “We look for the oil market to develop ‌an immunity to Trump’s conciliatory comments and optimistic tone regarding a deal, especially given apparent intentions to send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran,” oil trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note to clients.

The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the ​International Energy Agency describing the ​crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

“Every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing ... tightening the oil ​market further,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said that oil ​prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June, they added.

Elsewhere, Russian oil producers have ​warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from ​major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

The dollar rose on Friday and was on course for its strongest monthly gain in ​almost a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes fade for de-escalation.

The yen was particularly under pressure, falling in afternoon trading ‌to its weakest since July 2024 and raising the possibility of currency market intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a US peace proposal to end the war, with US President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that US objectives ​could be met without ground troops.

US consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.

Safe-haven flows underpinned the ​dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a US rate increase this year. The dollar index rose 0.3 percent to 100.17, up 2.57 percent so far in March and on course for its best monthly showing since July 2025, when it rose 3.4 percent.

“Weekend trading is also, to a certain degree, ​taking hold in terms of what you might or might not want to be long or short over the weekend,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street ​in Boston. “The dollar has been pretty correlated with risk these days in the correct way.”

While senior Iranian officials said diplomacy continued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated a ban on all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that was linked to allies of the US and Israel.

Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran’s energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran ​offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 more ground troops to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, further dimming investor hopes of ​a near-term end to the war.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed. India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary in the federal shipping ministry, said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock a new $1.2 billion package as part of its support programs for the country.

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine.

The IMF in a statement praised the Pakistani authorities' commitment to "pursuing sound and prudent macroeconomic policies to preserve the recent gains in macro-financial stabilization, while deepening structural reforms to accelerate growth and strengthening social protection to mitigate the impact of volatile energy prices on the most vulnerable."

The disbursement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, according to the fund's statement.

The agreement, if approved, would give Pakistan access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and around $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, it said.

Domestic gold prices have fallen by nearly Tk 36,000 per bhori over the past 23 days, driven by a sharp decline in global rates amid shifting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The price of gold per bhori stood at around Tk 2.41 lakh yesterday, down from around Tk 2.77 lakh on March 3, according to data from the Bangladesh Jeweller’s Association (Bajus).

The domestic market has adjusted prices 12 times between March 1 and March 25, with 10 of those changes reflecting downward revisions.

The decline comes after a month-long rally that saw gold prices more than double in just over a year. In January 2025, 22-carat gold was priced at around Tk 1.40 lakh per bhori. By the start of this year, it had risen to Tk 2.22 lakh, and peaked at Tk 2.86 lakh on January 29, 2026.

The recent drop mirrors volatility in international markets, where gold prices have fallen by $757.43 per ounce over the past 30 days.

On Monday, spot gold briefly touched $4,100 per ounce, its lowest level since December 11, before recovering to $4,545.34 by yesterday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and falling oil prices.

The rebound followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iran’s power plants, which also sent crude oil prices down 13 percent. However, the recovery has not offset the broader monthly decline.

Bajus said the prices of pure gold in the country’s bullion market have fallen, prompting adjustments in gold rates. However, the main reason behind the decline is the continued drop in global gold prices.

Dewan Aminul Islam Shahin, chairman of Bajus’ standing committee on pricing and price monitoring, told The Daily Star that local gold prices depend on multiple factors -- international benchmark, import costs, and demand.

He explained that local prices reflect a lag tied to import cycles. Gold imported into Bangladesh undergoes 12 to 15 days of processing before reaching retail outlets, which delays the transmission of international price movements.

“International gold markets have been highly volatile, with prices swinging sharply within hours,” Shahin said. “Gold tends to rise during global crises, such as wars or energy shortages, and falls when there are signs of peace.”

Industry insiders say renewed conflict could reverse the downward trend, and if the war drags on with rising damages, gold may once again appeal to investors.

Meanwhile, international analysts expect gold’s real yields to continue moving higher, according to a Reuters report.

With hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, and “as USD strength eases, safe-haven demand starts to reassert. This reinforces the view that gold didn’t lose its safe-haven appeal. ‌It was briefly crowded out by ⁠the USD, and now that pressure is easing,” Christopher Wong, a strategist at Singapore-based OCBC, told Reuters.

He also said gold remains sensitive to US Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments. “The rebound suggests dips may continue to find support unless real yields move meaningfully higher.”

Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran to allow Thai oil vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the Southeast Asian nation's Prime Minister said on Saturday.

"An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said at a press conference, adding the development would alleviate concerns over fuel imports.

The International ​Monetary Fund and Pakistan has ‌reached a staff-level agreement on the South Asian nation's loan program, a ​key step toward unlocking $1.2 billion ​in funding, the fund said ⁠on Friday.

The agreement, which requires ​IMF board approval, would give Pakistan ​access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $210 million under the Resilience ​and Sustainability Facility, bringing disbursements ​under the ongoing program to $4.5 billion.

Under the $7 billion ‌program, ⁠the Washington-based lender is urging Islamabad's policymakers to keep monetary policy tight and data-dependent to anchor ​inflation expectations ​and ⁠strengthen external buffers.

Pakistan's central bank kept its key ​policy rate unchanged at 10.5% this ​month, ⁠pausing its rate cuts as rising global energy prices and regional ⁠tensions ​pose new inflation ​risks for the import-dependent economy.

Bangladesh will import two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market at prices lower than its recent purchases, as global fuel rates ease amid diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase yesterday approved the procurement for delivery in late April.

UK-based TotalEnergies Gas & Power Ltd offered $19.77 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal unit) for both cargoes, down from over $20 per MMBtu in deals struck earlier this month. The total cost is estimated at Tk 1,667 crore.

Officials at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources said the lower rate reflects a recent dip in global energy prices, driven by expectations of a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict, which has outweighed concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf.

Oil prices have softened in recent days, creating a window for cheaper spot purchases.

According to US media reports, prices fell as a diplomatic push by the US to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely shut.

Brent sank as much as 7 percent toward $97 a barrel before paring the drop, while West Texas Intermediate was near $88.

The US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close, according to news reports. The proposal was delivered to Iran via Pakistan.

On March 17, the government approved two LNG cargoes from Aramco Trading Singapore at $20.96 and $20.92 per MMBtu.

Prior to that, three cargoes were secured at above $20, including one from TotalEnergies at $21.58 and two from South Korea’s Posco International at $20.76. The three shipments are expected to arrive between April 5 and April 13.

Immediately after the war began on February 28, Petrobangla, the state-owned agency responsible for managing gas, bought two emergency cargoes at significantly higher rates – $28.28 per MMBtu from US-based Gunvor and $23.08 from Vitol.

In December, LNG had cost just $9.99 per MMBtu.

Since the onset of the war, the government has approved at least nine spot LNG cargoes to avoid supply shortages.

Bangladesh’s growing reliance on LNG reflects structural shifts in its energy sector. Domestic gas output has stagnated, prompting imports since 2018 through floating storage and regasification units at Moheshkhali.

In 2025, Bangladesh imported 109 LNG cargoes worth $3.88 billion, up from 86 cargoes costing $3.02 billion in 2024, according to LightCastle Partners.

Qatar remained the largest supplier, followed by Oman’s OQ Trading, while the rest were sourced from the spot market.

Gold rose more ​than 1% on Wednesday, buoyed by a drop in oil prices that eased ‌inflation worries and tempered expectations for interest rate hikes, even as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict lingered.

Spot gold was up 1.6% to $4,546.59 per ounce as of 9am EDT (1300 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. ​US gold futures for April delivery jumped 3.3% to $4,545.40.

"Gold is seeing a technical ​recovery and is also being supported by optimism that hostilities involving Iran ⁠may be diminishing, which has helped ease oil prices," said Peter Grant, vice president and ​senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

"We will need to see some further easing of inflation ​concerns to start thinking about the possibility of another US rate cut at some point this year. Gold could get back up to $5,000 if that were to become the case."

Oil prices sank after reports the ​US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. Pakistan has delivered ​a proposal from the US to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkey could be venues for discussions ‌to ⁠de-escalate the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf to give Trump more options to order a ground assault, sources have told Reuters.

Falling oil prices help ease inflation pressures, reducing the likelihood of ​prolonged higher interest rates. ​Despite being an ⁠inflation hedge, gold loses appeal in high‑rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset increases.

Analysts at SP Angel said in ​a note the recent volatility in gold prices reflects a significant ​rise in ⁠speculative investment flows in 2025.

"The recent pullback has seen a sharp exit of much of this capital. However, we see the recent trend of central bank reserve diversification as set to continue, ⁠with ​new entrants buying in 2026."

Spot gold rose 64% last ​year and prices hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on 29 January.

Spot silver added 2.2% to $72.83, platinum gained 0.7% to $1,948.10 ​and palladium steadied at $1,439.31.

Bangladesh lost an estimated $68.3 billion through trade-related illicit financial flows between 2013 and 2022, according to a report by Global Financial Integrity released on Thursday (26 March).

Trade misinvoicing involves deliberately falsifying the value or quantity of imports and exports to evade taxes, shift profits, or transfer capital abroad, report said.

The report finds that Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries in developing Asia in terms of total trade value gaps.

In Bangladesh's case, a significant portion of the illicit flows is linked to trade with advanced economies. The report estimates that around $33 billion of the total gap occurred in transactions with countries such as the United States and those in Europe.

The findings suggest that Bangladesh's exposure is not limited to regional trade but is tied to global supply chains, particularly in export-oriented sectors and import-dependent industries.

Compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh's losses are substantial but remain far lower than India's, which recorded more than $1.06 trillion in illicit trade flows over the same period.

Sri Lanka, by contrast, recorded a smaller volume of about $24 billion in trade gaps with advanced economies, though its economic vulnerability amplifies the impact of such leakages.

Across developing Asia, trade-related illicit financial flows reached an estimated $1.69 trillion in 2022 alone, underscoring the scale of the challenge.

Major economies such as China, Thailand and India account for the bulk of these flows, though the problem spans countries of all sizes.

The study said, such practices remain deeply embedded across Asian economies, with no clear sign of decline over the past decade.

When the money market is already stressed by high government borrowing, newly introduced programmes such as the Family Card and farm loan waivers are likely to create additional fiscal pressure, potentially crowding out the private sector.

The extra spending on social programmes may come at the cost of higher inflation, as low revenue earnings will prompt the government to source funds from banks, raising interest rates and increasing business costs.

A senior Bangladesh Bank executive said that in this situation, the government has been aggressively seeking external funding sources to reduce borrowing pressure on the domestic market.

Government borrowing already grew nearly 30% year-on-year in January, surpassing the monetary target of 21.6% set for FY26 by Bangladesh Bank. The call money rate, which fell below the policy rate of 10% at the beginning of March, surged above it again amid rising import costs following the Iran war.

For example, average call money rates for short notice loans jumped to 10.50% on 16 March from 9.85% on 5 March, central bank data shows. Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate, which had remained stable for months, rose to nearly Tk123 from Tk122.30 in just two weeks in March.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed the taka to depreciate, prioritising the protection of foreign exchange reserves amid rising import costs. Faster taka depreciation will directly affect inflation, which began rising in February, exceeding 9%.

The senior Bangladesh Bank executive told The Business Standard that rates for treasury bills and bonds are expected to rise soon, as the government will need to borrow more to fund newly introduced social programmes and cover rising energy bills.

He added that government borrowing is likely to increase significantly in May and June when the programmes are implemented on a full scale. "The government can meet the demand from both domestic and external sources," he said.

Among domestic sources, borrowing will come through treasury bills, bonds, and savings instruments, as the central bank is not planning to print money. Higher treasury bills and bond rates will influence market lending rates, which will ultimately impact inflation, he added. Central bank data shows inflation, which had eased for a few months, began rising again in February, surpassing 9%.

The government may consider revising the ceiling of savings instruments from the existing Tk60 lakh, said the executive, who wished to remain anonymous. However, sourcing foreign funds is the better option to ease liquidity stress and maintain balance in the money market, he added.

In this context, the government is emphasising the inflow of foreign loans from India and China, Bangladesh's major lenders, to meet the additional demand, said a senior Bangladesh Bank official.

The government has already begun addressing issues surrounding projects financed under India's line of credit (LoC) and the resumption of Export Credit Agency (ECA) support for capital machinery imports from China, which had stalled.

Over the past two years, the government has largely relied on bank borrowing to meet operational costs due to low foreign fund inflows. The fuel price surge following the Iran war intensified the funding crisis, prompting the government to seek foreign sources.

Prime Minister's Economic and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the government is reallocating funds from various sectors and considering low-interest loans from international development agencies to ensure sufficient fuel imports.

Speaking to journalists on 15 March, he added that the government is also exploring support from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Amid the funding crunch, the government recently launched the pilot phase of the Family Card programme, under which at least 40,000 families will receive benefits during the four-month trial.

When the programme runs in full swing, providing Tk2,500 per month to two crore beneficiaries by 2030, it will cost about Tk5,000 crore per month, roughly Tk60,000 crore annually, according to a study of think-tank Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

The newly introduced farm loan waiver programme will cost approximately Tk1,550 crore from the budget. The Cabinet approved a proposal on 26 February to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000, including accrued interest, benefiting around 12 lakh farmers in line with the government's Election Manifesto 2026.

Expert views

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh cannot navigate heightened global uncertainty with business-as-usual budgeting, yet crude austerity is not the answer.

"The challenge is to spend smarter. The tax system collects too little from those most able to pay and remains overly dependent on trade taxes. Widening the net through digital invoicing, stronger compliance among large taxpayers, and fewer discretionary exemptions would strengthen revenues without raising rates," he said.

The economist added that deficit financing is becoming more difficult. External borrowing is costlier in a risk-averse world, while excessive domestic borrowing risks crowding out private investment. Bangladesh cannot rely indefinitely on expensive bank borrowing or short-term instruments to close structural gaps.

Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said the new government will need substantial funds in the coming days to implement the new pay scale for government employees and social programmes like the Family Card, farmer support, and agriculture loan waivers.

He warned that continued high borrowing would increase the debt burden when the debt-to-GDP ratio is already 40%, and inflation will not ease as expected. The government now faces two options: compromise traditional development projects like roads and transport to reduce budgetary pressure, or increase foreign borrowing. Major sources of foreign borrowing include the IMF, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and Islamic Development Bank, which the government has already begun contacting.