The government will hold talks with the United States Trade Representative (USTR) this week to determine whether the recently signed bilateral trade deal remains valid after America’s Supreme Court struck down a large swathe of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Friday.

The US top court, in its ruling, declared that Trump had exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing sweeping reciprocal tariffs without congressional approval. The ruling limits the president’s authority to impose tariffs under the law, and it is unclear whether agreements concluded under that authority remain valid.

Speaking to The Daily Star over the phone, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said, “Firstly, we will observe their position and status of the previous trade agreement with the US.”

“We will also hold stakeholder meetings with the local business community to let them know about the agreement and the latest situation,” he added.

The interim government signed the American Reciprocal Tariff (ART) agreement on February 9, just three days before national elections, committing Bangladesh to importing substantial volumes of American goods to narrow the bilateral trade gap.

The haste was deliberate. When President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April last year, setting Bangladesh’s rate at 37 percent, Dhaka watched rival exporters such as Vietnam and China move quickly to negotiate lower rates. Bangladesh eventually secured a 19 percent tariff after signing the deal.

Two pressures drove the rush, according to Secretary Rahman. The tariff rates being offered to competing countries were uneven, and Washington was pushing for a quick signature before a new government took office and potentially stalled negotiations.

Now, with the US court ruling, the legal ground has shifted.

“We will have to talk with the USTR first about whether the already signed agreement will be cancelled or not, as the deal was signed in reference to the presidential power under IEEPA,” Rahman said.

Meanwhile, following the court ruling, Trump slapped a new 15 percent tariff on all US imports and ordered new trade investigations that could lead to additional levies in the coming months, while insisting that trade and investment deals reached with nearly 20 countries -- most with higher tariffs -- should remain untouched.

Dhaka is proceeding carefully. If the new 15 percent universal tariff applies equally to all countries, Bangladesh sees little urgency to re-engage.

“In that case, Bangladesh will delay in negotiations with the US,” said the secretary, noting that should discriminatory rates re-emerge, the government intends to move quickly to secure a lower ceiling.

“This time Bangladesh will not send any letter quickly as it did earlier, and the government will go slowly now,” he added.

The USTR, for its part, signalled on February 20 that it intends to press ahead with Trump’s trade agenda by other means.

In a statement, it noted that between April and December 2025, America’s goods trade deficit fell 17 percentage points from a 40 percent deficit, in part due to deals that kept protective tariffs in place while opening foreign markets to American exports.

The office said it would launch fresh investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, targeting practices it deems unfair, including industrial overcapacity, forced labour, pharmaceutical pricing, and discrimination against American technology firms.

“Our partners have been responsive and engaged in good-faith negotiations and agreements despite the pending litigation, and we are confident that all trade agreements negotiated by President Trump will remain in effect,” the USTR said.

The American Apparel and Footwear Association, in a separate statement issued on February 20, struck a different note, welcoming the court’s ruling and calling for swift refunds of tariffs it described as unlawfully collected.

“We are confident in Customs and Border Protection’s (CPB) ability to move quickly and provide clear guidance to American businesses on how to obtain refunds for tariffs that were unlawfully collected,” said Steve Lamar, the association’s president and chief executive.

“CBP’s recently modernised, fully electronic refund process should help to expedite this effort,” he added.

Current 2.0-percent mandatory down payment to get default loans regularised has been halved in a latest government measure to stem non-performing loan (NPL) buildup in Bangladesh's banking sector.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) Sunday issued a notification to this effect further easing the loan-rescheduling facility for the struggling borrowers under the policy supports.

The banking regulation and policy department of the central bank sent in the instructions to the commercial banks, directing them to allow half of the 2.0 per cent of the outstanding loans as down payment. And the remaining portion of the down payment may be collected within the next six months.

Under the existing regulation of the loan-rescheduling facility, the borrowers need to pay 2.0 per cent of their unpaid loans as down payment to avail of the facility. But the borrowers will not be allowed to show a paid loan installment or its part before submission of the application as special down payment.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official has said there are many banks which informed them that many borrowers who received policy supports have faced difficulties in paying 2.0-percent down payment in one go. As a matter of fact, the banks kept requesting them to relax the regulation.

"Considering their request, the central bank issued the instruction to the commercial lenders about the latest change in the down payment to facilitate the proceeding," he told The Financial Express.

The central banker also informed that they also extended the timeframe of executing the policy-support-related issues by three more months until March next.

On condition of not being quoted by name on the sensitive affairs, the managing director and chief executive officer of a private commercial bank said they had provided policy support to a group of classified borrowers under the BB-introduced policy-support mechanism under the BRPD circular-7.

But many of them cannot afford to pay 2.0 per cent of their outstanding loans as down payment in one go and the situation remains same to other commercial banks, according to him.

"So, we could not settle them (the borrowers). That's why the BB came up with such relaxation. This is a good move. Now we will be able to execute the loan-rescheduling facility," the seasoned banker said.

The BB allowed commercial banks to offer special rescheduling facility for up to 10 years with a two-year grace period to borrowers whose loans are classified as of December 2025, under a generous government bailout package, according to the banking regulators' policy-support-related circular.

Meanwhile, burgeoning NPLs stand as a serious concerns for the banking industry as the volume of classified loans accumulated to Tk 6.44 trillion by end of September last year-almost 36 per cent of the entire loans disbursed.

Amid growing NPLs, the central bank provided various facilities like policy supports to the struggling borrowers and partial write-off facility. The banking regulator keeps advising the banks to properly use the facilities to contain the growth of NPLs in the industry.

According to the BB sources, the NPL ratio was brought down to 30 per cent by end of December last. Now, the BB has asked the commercial banks to pay high focus on execution of the available facilities to cut it down below 25 per cent by upcoming March and it believes the down-payment-relaxation will help get to the goal.

Former lead economist of World Bank's Dhaka Office Dr Zahid Hossain says down payment is a pre-commitment of the borrowers to recovering the loss of credibility.

He terms 2.0-percent down payment very generous to begin with. "If you don't have this economic viability, how we can believe that they will repay the loans," he says.

"I also don't understand why the bankers are happy with such relaxation. It is good news for the default borrowers," the economist adds.

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.

The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.

Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.

In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and the Trump administration's response to it, and respond appropriately."

China, which is preparing to host Trump in late March, has yet to formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, said Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages".

"This shows the stability of Hong Kong's policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new US tariffs would affect the city's economy.

Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

While Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.

Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.

Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.

Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government had yet to determine how to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.

"While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.

Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US - one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.

More confusion

Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.

Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.

In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026.

The Dhaka stock market ended the week on a positive note, with National Bank emerging as the top gainer, while Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC stood as the worst-performing stock.

National Bank registered a strong 29.27% weekly return, closing at Tk5.30, driven by notable investor interest in banking stocks.

Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) followed with a 28.57% gain to settle at Tk3.60. S Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited continued its recent rally, advancing 27.50% to Tk15.30 despite persistent financial concerns.

Other significant gainers included Fareast Finance and Premier Leasing, both rising 27.27% to Tk1.40 each. Prime Finance climbed 22.73% to Tk2.70, while Daffodil Computer gained 22% to close at Tk56.

Infographic: TBS
Infographic: TBS

Meanwhile, Familytex and Tung Hai Knitting each posted 20% gains, ending the week at Tk1.80 and Tk2.40, respectively. Shurwid Industries advanced 19.61% to Tk6.10.

On the losing side, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC declined 12.28% to close at Tk45.70, topping the losers' chart. ICB Islamic Bank fell 10.71% to Tk2.50, while Midas Finance shed 9.38% to Tk6.40.

Al-Arafah Islami Bank lost 9.09% to Tk16, and Union Capital dropped 8.89% to Tk4.10. Crystal Insurance retreated 8.53% to Tk77.20, while Asiatic Laboratories Limited fell 7.89% to Tk63. Phoenix Finance also declined 7.50% to Tk3.70.

The benchmark DSEX index extended its upward trend for the fifth consecutive week, supported by strong post-election optimism at the start of trading.

Following the election holidays, trading resumed with broad-based buying pressure that pushed the index past the 5,600-mark for the first time in nearly six months.

However, EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, noted that the initial enthusiasm moderated in later sessions as investors engaged in profit-booking and adopted a cautious stance, closely watching policy signals and regulatory developments under the newly elected government.

By the end of the week, DSEX gained 66 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 5,466. Market participation remained strong, with average daily turnover rising to Tk1,050 crore.

Sector-wise, the banking sector dominated trading activity, accounting for 20.7% of total turnover, followed by pharmaceuticals at 16.3% and textiles at 10.2%.

Most sectors posted positive returns during the week. The paper sector led gains with a 5.3% increase, while IT and ceramics rose 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, the jute sector emerged as the worst performer, declining 3%.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has cautioned that the recent surge in stock market indices, centred on election optimism, is largely confidence-driven and cosmetic rather than a sign of sustainable recovery.

Speaking to journalists at his residence in Mehedibag, Chattogram, on Friday during his first visit to the port city after taking oath as a minister in the new government, Khosru said temporary gains based on sentiment would not bring fundamental change to the capital market.

He noted that the current upward trend may reflect expectations of a democratic government but stressed that only sustainable and structural reforms could ensure long-term stability.

The finance minister said the government would introduce comprehensive reforms in the capital market, including necessary amendments to laws and the regulatory framework. In particular, the role of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission would be further strengthened.

He emphasised enhancing the effectiveness of the regulator, ensuring greater transparency, and adopting a zero-tolerance approach towards irregularities.

Khosru also said initiatives would be taken to bring fundamentally strong and profitable companies to the market to offer investors quality investment opportunities. At the same time, attracting both domestic and foreign investment funds to boost liquidity and restore investor confidence would remain a priority.

"If these measures are implemented, not only the capital market but also industry, trade, exports and production will benefit," he said, adding that increased employment and overall economic growth would follow.

Meanwhile, BSEC Chairman Khondkar Rashed Maqsood described the stock market as an extremely sensitive area where no "garbage" could be tolerated.

He made the remarks as chief guest at an iftar event organised by the Capital Market Journalists Forum on Friday afternoon.

Maqsood said irregularities and misconduct must be eliminated, and that journalists covering the capital market were playing a crucial role in exposing manipulation and rumour-driven profit-taking.

"If reporting increases, such garbage will also be removed," he said.

However, he warned that the capital market reacts swiftly to information and stressed the importance of verifying facts before publication. Unverified reports, he cautioned, could cause immediate damage. While the commission does not discourage reporting, it expects responsible and fact-checked journalism.

At the same event, Professor Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, said a strong capital market is closely linked to overall economic performance.

He expressed optimism about positive developments under the new government and underscored the need for economic training to make capital market reporting more informative and analytical.

Bangladesh has met the criteria to graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, but serious gaps in trade readiness, macroeconomic stability and institutional strength could threaten a smooth transition in November 2026, according to a new independent assessment commissioned by the United Nations (UN).

The report was prepared at the request of the interim government, which sought an independent review from the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS).

Ahead of the scheduled graduation this year, business leaders had been urging the interim government to seek a delay of up to six years, arguing that the country is not ready for life without special trade privileges.

Shared with the Chief Adviser’s Office earlier this month, the report said that Bangladesh met the graduation thresholds for income, human assets and economic vulnerability in successive UN triennial reviews. The UN General Assembly approved graduation in 2021, granting a five-year preparatory period.

That window, however, has been anything but calm.

“Political instability and governance disruptions have severely constrained policy continuity, weakened institutional cooperation, and delayed or derailed key reform processes,” the report said, adding that the interim government’s mandate was inherently transitional.

Instead of laying the groundwork for a smooth transition, the past five years were marked by overlapping global and domestic shocks.

“Rather than a period of strategic preparation and institutional strengthening, the past five years were largely consumed by crisis management, economic stabilisation, and political survival,” said the report.

A student-led mass uprising in August 2024 brought down the previous government and ushered in an interim administration. “This political upheaval was superimposed on a macroeconomic crisis that had been accumulating for years.”

‘SUBSTANTIAL GAPS’

According to the report, trade preparedness remains a weak spot for Bangladesh.

The country currently enjoys preferential access to markets such as the United Kingdom, and has secured an economic partnership deal with Japan recently. But the European Union remains the biggest risk.

Almost three-quarters of Bangladesh’s merchandise exports benefit from LDC-specific preferences. That makes the transition more complex than for most countries that have graduated in the past.

Progress in energy and logistics has been slow. Besides, the economy still leans heavily on readymade garments, which generate more than four-fifths of export earnings. Efforts to diversify have yet to bear fruit, and new legal frameworks to support exporters are incomplete.

The wider economic backdrop adds to the strain.

Growth has slowed, inflation has stayed high, and the banking sector is in crisis. Public debt has climbed, and exports face global headwinds.

Sustained inflation has eroded purchasing power, pushing an estimated 90 lakh people into poverty. The poverty rate has risen from 18.7 percent in 2022 to about 21.2 percent in 2025, reversing gains made since the 1990s.

“The reversal of poverty reduction gains demonstrates the fragility of development achievements under macroeconomic stress,” the report said.

According to it, institutional readiness is also in question. Implementation of the Smooth Transition Strategy (STS) has been slow, while coordination and monitoring across ministries are patchy.

Non-performing loans have reached historic highs, limiting credit to the private sector.

The report said that real growth, which topped 7 percent before the Covid 19 pandemic, has lost momentum in recent years. Employment fell by 19 lakh between 2023 and 2024, with women bearing the brunt.

Meanwhile, external pressures are mounting.

The United States has imposed reciprocal tariffs of 19 percent on imports from Bangladesh, adding to existing duties and squeezing exporters further. More trade shocks during the transition could drive up adjustment costs.

CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES

The report identifies six major risks to smooth and sustainable graduation. Those are erosion of trade preferences, fiscal fragility, debt sustainability pressures, banking sector weaknesses, structural competitiveness gaps and limited access to climate finance.

Bangladesh currently enjoys duty-free access to the EU. After 2029, clothing exports to the bloc will face tariffs of 12 percent. But market competitors such as India and Vietnam will continue to pay zero duty.

The EU accounts for roughly half of Bangladesh’s exports, meaning even small shifts in competitiveness could have outsized effects.

Safeguard provisions under the EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) remain unresolved.

“This represents the single most critical unresolved trade policy challenge with potential to severely erode competitiveness in Bangladesh’s largest export market.”

Another vulnerability is narrowing fiscal space and rising debt burden.

Revenue mobilisation fell to 6.8 percent of GDP in the financial year 2024-2025. Debt servicing now absorbs 31 percent of government revenue. In August 2025, the IMF World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis moved Bangladesh from “low” to “moderate risk” of debt distress.

“This fiscal fragility severely constrains capacity to finance investments and social protection measures needed for graduation-related adjustments.”

Structural costs further weigh on competitiveness. Logistics costs amount to about 16 percent of GDP, well above the global benchmark of around 10 percent. Energy inefficiencies and infrastructure bottlenecks add to production expenses.

Setting out 157 time-bound actions across five pillars, the STS was adopted only in February 2025, limiting the effective implementation horizon before graduation.

“Stakeholder consultations consistently indicated slow and uneven implementation progress, with limited momentum in competitiveness-critical areas,” the report said.

WHAT NEXT?

The assessment urges Bangladesh to seek a safeguard waiver or alternative arrangement with the EU to avoid steep tariffs on apparel after 2029.

It also calls for faster tax reforms to lift the revenue to GDP ratio, a comprehensive plan to tackle non-performing loans and a reliable, reasonably priced energy supply for exporters.

Due to the “unprecedented and cumulative series of shocks”, many stakeholders believe the country may need three to five more years to prepare, according to the report.

It said Bangladesh could approach the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) to request a deferral on the grounds that exceptional circumstances have undermined its readiness.

The report stresses anchoring macroeconomic stability through credible monetary and exchange rate policies, ensuring foreign exchange access for exporters and shoring up the banking system before the graduation clock runs out.

Taking into consideration the prevailing constrained fiscal space and fragile macroeconomic situation, Debapriya Bhattacharya, convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, said the government should implement an economic stabilisation plan with a hard budget constraint for the remainder of the fiscal year (FY) 2025-26.

Implementing a hard budget constraint means the state will not step in when an organisation’s spending exceeds its income and it incurs losses, leaving it to bear the consequences of financial mismanagement and, if necessary, cease operations.

Along with the stabilisation plan, the government should realistically revise the current budget, Bhattacharya said at a media briefing titled “Economic Review at the Outset of the New Government”, held at BRAC Inn Centre in the capital, organised by the platform.

He identified fragile macroeconomic stability, weakened private investment and employment, and diminishing fiscal space as major challenges for the government sworn in on February 17.

In this regard, he added, if the foundation of an economy is weak, its structure cannot remain sustainable.

“Macroeconomic stability is the mother of all reforms,” he said, explaining that it can be assessed through at least four key indicators: inflation, interest rates, the exchange rate or value of the currency, and the domestic and external debt situation.

These four indicators must be closely and continuously monitored by the government, the eminent economist said. If inflation is not controlled, purchasing power declines. If interest rates are misaligned, investment suffers. If the exchange rate is unstable, both importers and exporters face uncertainty. And if the debt burden becomes unsustainable, financial sovereignty may be undermined.

Without consolidating macroeconomic stability, it will not be possible to sustainably increase private investment, generate employment, secure foreign financing, repay external debt, or ensure food security. Therefore, the overriding policy objective must be to restore and strengthen macroeconomic stability, Bhattacharya said.

The platform gave several policy recommendations. “A small cut in policy rate may be considered, as the higher policy rate is not working to reduce inflation,” said Towfiqul Islam Khan, Additional Research Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), while he gave a presentation at the event.

A small and gradual depreciation policy may be pursued, he said, adding it will incentivise remitters and exporters even if their cash incentive is cut. “Prioritisation of public expenditure will be required to reduce wastage as much as possible. Taking a miserly approach for the rest of FY26 is recommended.”

No more public money should be allocated for troubled banks in FY26, he stressed.

Recovery of stolen and bad assets should be given attention, both at technical (including diplomatic) and legal levels.

There should be no compromise in formulating a realistic revised budget for FY26, including projections for the debt stress situation, he added.

Bhattacharya recommended forming a “transition team.” Although not widely practised in Bangladesh, such teams are well established in many countries during a change of government.

The purpose of this team will be to conduct a transparent and systematic assessment of the situation inherited from the outgoing administration, examining financial commitments, contractual obligations, debt exposure, and policy decisions that will affect the incoming government.

This transition team could consist of both political representatives and policy experts. Its task would be to conduct a kind of forensic review of each ministry’s financial and policy position and prepare a comprehensive briefing document. Such documents would serve as the foundation for informed decision-making.

Several areas should receive particular attention, such as the debt situation, both domestic and external. A clear understanding of loan terms, repayment schedules, interest rates, and contingent liabilities is essential for sound policymaking.

Apart from this, foreign agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoU) should be reviewed. Beyond agreements with any single country, all international commitments should be reviewed to assess their obligations, risks, and implications for the new government.

If the country is willing to reconsider aspects of its LDC graduation process, then it is equally reasonable to re-evaluate international commitments in that broader context, the economist said.

“Ultimately, slogans and stated goals are not sufficient. What is needed is a clear roadmap, strengthened institutional capacity, policy coherence, and accountability.”

Talking about several election pledges of the BNP, Khan said that the goal of a one trillion-dollar national GDP by 2034 is achievable.

However, pledges like raising foreign investment to 2.5 percent of GDP, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent, and allocating 5 percent of GDP each to health and education sectors are highly ambitious.

Pursue a coherent mid-term plan with realistic attainment targets in view of the election manifesto, he added.

CPD Distinguished Fellow Mustafizur Rahman also spoke at the event.

A five-day meeting of the UN Committee for Development Policy (UN CDP) is set to begin tomorrow in New York City, where Bangladesh's graduation-related submission will be assessed.

Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, a CDP member and head of its Enhanced Monitoring Mechanism (EMM), a sub-committee under UN CDP, was traveling to New York last night to attend the sessions.

The EMM sub-committee is also scheduled to meet this week and will review the current situation of countries that have already completed their graduation process, as well as those in the pipeline. The three countries currently in the pipeline are Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos.

"One of the sessions of the UN CDP meeting will discuss the status of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos, which are waiting in the graduation pipeline. It will be scrutinised what progress these countries have made so far and whether they are prepared for graduation at the end of the year," Debapriya told The Business Standard before leaving Dhaka.

Bangladesh seeks 3-year deferral of LDC graduation

The EMM sub-committee reviews how smoothly graduating and graduated LDCs are progressing. It also analyses whether countries that have already graduated are actually able to maintain sustainability. Bangladesh's request for graduation deferral will also be discussed at the meeting.

"There is a crisis button under the EMM. If Bangladesh pushes the button, then the nature of the stated crisis will be analysed and cross-checked with the latest data. Besides, the graduation assessment report of Bangladesh submitted to UN CDP last year will also be taken into consideration. In particular, the information provided in the government's report last November will be weighed against the new application," he said.

The economist also said that Economic Relations Division (ERD) Secretary Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky, who has now requested a postponement of graduation, had stated in November that everything was on track. Bangladesh's level of commitment to implementing its Smooth Transition Strategy during the graduation period will also be taken into consideration.

Referring to the instance of graduation deferment of Solomon Islands, Debapriya said that the head of the country's government had written the letter seeking time for graduation preparedness, while Bangladesh's request letter was signed by a secretary.

The interim government's Council of Advisers had decided not to seek a deferral of graduation. However, the new government submitted such a request immediately after assuming office. Nepal and Laos have not made any new applications, he said.

Therefore, according to the CDP member, the experiences of these two countries will also be reviewed while assessing Bangladesh's request.

The day after assuming office, the new government formally applied to defer Bangladesh's graduation from the Least Developed Countries category by three years.

On Wednesday, the ERD secretary sent a letter to José Antonio Ocampo, chair of the UN CDP, which operates under the UN Economic and Social Council (Ecosoc).

The letter mentioned a range of domestic and external challenges and requested that the LDC graduation timeline be extended until 24 November 2029. Under the previous decision, Bangladesh is set to graduate on 24 November this year. The third and final review process ahead of graduation is currently underway.

At the urging of leaders of the country's top business bodies and several economists, the immediate past interim government had recommended pursuing an extension until 2030 in coordination with other countries, such as Nepal and Laos, which are on a similar graduation track. The final decision on the matter, however, was left to the elected government.

On Wednesday, after taking charge, Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir told journalists that all necessary steps would be taken to delay LDC graduation.

He said the ministry had begun working on the issue immediately and would move swiftly in coordination with the ERD to advance the deferral process. Later that same day, the ERD secretary sent the letter to the CDP chair.

High-cost infrastructure projects awarded largely through non-competitive contracts, coupled with weak revenue mobilisation, are increasing Bangladesh's exposure to external public debt risks, according to official data and a new independent study.

Although external debt inflows continue to rise, government revenue growth has failed to keep pace, pushing key debt indicators closer to risk thresholds.

According to the Economic Relations Division's (ERD) latest Flow of External Resources into Bangladesh report, the debt-to-revenue ratio climbed to 16.92% by the end of FY2024-25, up from 16.53% a year earlier. The IMF's indicative threshold for this ratio is 18%.

The ERD cautioned that without faster revenue growth, Bangladesh may lose its current "comfortable position" in servicing external debt.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS
Key debt indicators edging upward

Other external debt indicators present a mixed picture.

The debt-to-exports of goods and services plus remittances (XGS) ratio improved slightly, falling to 105.87% at the end of FY2024-25 from 110.09% a year earlier, well below the IMF's 180% threshold.

The debt-to-GDP ratio, though still low by international standards, is rising gradually. It stood at 18.99% at the end of FY2024-25, up from 17.03% in FY2023-24, against a 40% benchmark.

Bangladesh's total medium- and long-term (MLT) external debt reached $77.279 billion as of 30 June 2025, compared with $68.822 billion a year earlier — an increase of $8.457 billion. Net government external borrowing during the year amounted to $5.832 billion.

Exchange rate movements also played a role. The appreciation of the US dollar against the SDR and other currencies added $2.510 billion to the debt stock in dollar terms. Meanwhile, depreciation of the taka increases debt servicing costs in local currency.

Liquidity indicators show mounting pressure. The interest service ratio for MLT debt rose to 2.96% in FY2024-25 from 2.87% the previous year. The total debt service ratio — principal and interest payments as a share of exports — increased from 7.16% to 8.12%, reflecting the beginning of principal repayments on several loans.

The debt service-to-revenue ratio rose sharply from 9.17% to 11.41%, underscoring the strain created by rising obligations and sluggish revenue mobilisation.

While these metrics still indicate manageable liquidity risk, they suggest growing pressure on fiscal space.

External debt up 377% since 2009

Concerns over longer-term sustainability were amplified by a recent study by researchers from SOAS University of London, supported by the Open Society Foundations and Change Initiative.

The study found that Bangladesh's external debt increased from $23.5 billion in 2009 to nearly $112 billion in 2025 — a 377% rise.

Over the same period, one out of every Tk5 in government revenue is now spent on interest payments alone, before repayment of principal.

Analysing 42 mega infrastructure projects undertaken between 2009 and 2025, the study found that 29 projects experienced average cost escalation of 70.3%. Around 35% of infrastructure project costs were estimated to have been lost to corruption and inefficiency.

The study, titled "Corruption in Infrastructure Projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Implications for Public Debt," found that projects awarded through direct government-to-government (G2G) arrangements were, on average, more than 400% costlier than those procured through transparent competitive bidding.

It warned that unrestricted G2G contracts and weak oversight significantly increase long-term debt burdens and macroeconomic risks.

Speaking at a discussion in Dhaka this week, development economist Mushtaq Khan of SOAS said even small differences in contract pricing — particularly in power sector projects — can translate into hundreds of millions of dollars in long-term liabilities.

"Once the project is awarded, the inflated benefits are shared among insiders. This is not unique to Bangladesh; it is a global phenomenon," he said, adding that easier access to large external lenders has enabled many developing countries to accumulate infrastructure-driven debt at unsustainable levels.

Lessons from Sri Lanka

The study draws parallels with Sri Lanka, which pursued a similar infrastructure-led growth strategy and eventually defaulted in 2022.

Around 2008, both countries shifted toward high-value infrastructure investments, including ports, highways and energy facilities, often financed by external partners such as China and India.

In Sri Lanka's case, roughly 65% of foreign debt accumulated during that period was linked to energy infrastructure, much of it underutilised or poorly planned, generating insufficient economic returns.

The result was mounting debt without corresponding growth dividends — a dynamic that ultimately contributed to its crisis.

In FY2024-25, Bangladesh's outstanding MLT external debt stood at 152.7% of export earnings, up from 146.12% a year earlier. While this does not yet signal acute solvency risk, the upward trend is notable.

The study warns that if corruption-driven overpricing and governance weaknesses persist, Bangladesh's debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 65–70% by 2030.

It characterises Bangladesh as having moved from a "low-risk stability phase" to a "moderate-risk acceleration phase."

"Sri Lanka's 2022 default could not be predicted simply from gradual trends. Crisis happens when a country suddenly cannot meet a day's interest or principal payment," the study notes.

While Bangladesh remains in a comparatively safer position, the researchers warn that 2028–2032 could become a vulnerable period if corrective measures are delayed.

They recommend tighter expenditure management, stronger tax collection and improved project governance to prevent rapid debt acceleration.

Legacy projects weigh on fiscal space

Former Planning Commission member and ex-secretary Arastoo Khan also acknowledged the risks posed by high-cost, less essential infrastructure projects.

Although the interim government has curtailed new borrowing, he said current debt pressures largely stem from liabilities linked to large projects undertaken in the past decade.

"Bangladesh was previously in a relatively comfortable debt position, but taking multiple high-cost projects simultaneously has created pressure on debt management," he said.

He cited the $12 billion nuclear power plant project, which requires annual interest payments of around $400–450 million.

The challenge, he added, is not borrowing per se, but abnormal cost escalation and overpricing. In many cases, project costs reportedly increased by 25–30%, significantly inflating debt burdens.

While international agencies generally consider a debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 40% manageable, he warned that continued investment in high-cost, low-return projects could make the situation "highly risky" in the coming years.

The study concludes that infrastructure-driven debt accumulation is fundamentally a governance issue, arguing that genuine economic competition — rather than additional layers of rules — is essential to break collusive arrangements and strengthen accountability.

The Supreme Court's recent ruling has altered the economic foundation of Bangladesh's trade arrangement with the United States. The reciprocal tariff mechanism that once justified a set of demanding obligations has been struck down. The administration has responded with a temporary 10% global tariff that applies to all countries alike. By statute, this tariff can remain in place for no more than 150 days unless Congress authorises an extension.

As a result, the tariff burden tied to the bilateral deal has fallen sharply. It is natural to ask why we should continue to carry obligations that were tied to a benefit that no longer exists in the same form. The instinct to demand renegotiation is understandable, and the desire for fairness is real. But the moment calls for clear judgment.

The case for patience
When circumstances shift abruptly, the impulse is to act quickly. Yet this is precisely when restraint becomes a strategic asset. The United States is navigating a politically sensitive moment: a legal setback, a hurried policy adjustment, and an uncertain path forward. Pressing for renegotiation now risks being seen as taking advantage of a partner at a vulnerable moment. That perception, even if unintended, can trigger reactions that are not strictly economic — regulatory scrutiny, administrative slowdowns, and other measures that fall outside the tariff framework. These tools remain fully available to Washington today.

Equally important is the uncertainty surrounding the status of the bilateral deal itself. The Supreme Court ruling removed the tariff instrument, but it did not automatically void the agreement. The obligations Bangladesh accepted do not rest on the same legal foundation as the reciprocal tariff. Assuming the deal has collapsed would be a serious misreading of the situation. Such an assumption could lead to missteps — provoking confrontation or relaxing compliance too soon. Until the United States clarifies its position, Bangladesh must proceed on the basis that the deal remains in force, even if its economic logic has weakened.

There is also a more structural risk that must be acknowledged. Bangladesh could find itself placed under the "unfair trade practices" category, a designation that allows the United States to impose tariffs under a different statute — tariffs that can reach levels far higher than the current 10%. Bangladesh is exposed on several fronts — labour standards, environmental compliance, and supply-chain transparency. None of these issues are new, but in a tense political climate they can be invoked to justify punitive measures. This is not a reason to retreat from seeking a fairer deal; it is a reason to choose the moment carefully.

Bangladesh can reduce its exposure with steady, practical steps. Strengthening labour-inspection systems, improving documentation of workplace conditions, and ensuring credible third-party verification of compliance would help close the gaps that often invite scrutiny. Environmental reporting can be made more transparent, especially in sectors where buyers already demand traceability. And coordination with industry to maintain consistent standards across factories would make it harder for isolated lapses to be framed as systemic failures. None of this guarantees immunity, but it places Bangladesh on firmer ground if allegations arise.

A better moment will come

The broader strategic logic still favours patience. When the environment is unsettled, the value of time increases. The United States will need to rebuild its trade architecture in the wake of the ruling. It will have to decide whether to craft new bilateral arrangements, adjust the temporary tariff, or seek congressional authority for a more durable framework. In that period, Bangladesh will not be approaching a wounded partner but engaging one ready to redesign. That is when our voice will carry more weight, and our demands will be seen as part of a forward-looking conversation rather than a reaction to a moment of weakness.

Bangladesh should prepare its position now — identify which clauses are unacceptable, articulate the imbalance created by the new tariff reality, and build a coherent case for a fairer arrangement. But preparation is not the same as provocation. The wiser course is to maintain a calm, neutral posture while the United States clarifies its next steps.

When Washington begins shaping its post-ruling trade strategy, Bangladesh can then make a principled, confident case for revisiting the terms. At that moment, renegotiation will not be an act of pressure but an act of alignment.

The public's desire for a fairer deal is legitimate. The government is right to prepare for one. But the country will gain more by choosing the right moment than the loudest one. The cost of moving too early is far greater than the cost of waiting. Bangladesh must choose timing over impulse — leverage over noise.

Zahid Hussain is a former lead economist of The World Bank, Dhaka Office

The ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States limiting President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs should modestly ease policy uncertainty for Bangladesh's apparel exporters.

Bangladesh had been subject to a 19% "reciprocal" tariff under the recent US-Bangladesh trade arrangement, so the invalidation of those IEEPA-based duties reduces the risk of sudden, across-the-board tariff hikes imposed under emergency authority.

For Bangladesh's garment sector - highly dependent on the US market - predictability is almost as important as the tariff rate itself.

Although Trump has announced a new 10% global tariff under a different legal provision, its uniform application across countries effectively restores a more level playing field in the short term, compared to the differentiated reciprocal regime.

In terms of immediate order flows, I would not expect a sharp spike right away. US buyers typically place apparel orders months in advance, and sourcing strategies are shaped by longer-term considerations related to cost, compliance, and logistics.

However, the court decision could improve buyer sentiment by reducing legal uncertainty and the prospect of retroactive duties. Some American retailers may briefly pause to assess the evolving policy environment, especially given Trump's signal that he intends to pursue tariffs under alternative legal authorities.

If the new 10% tariff proves more stable and predictable than the earlier emergency-based regime, it could gradually support steadier order volumes from US importers.

However, I am concerned that a new set of restrictive trade measures from the US administration may be forthcoming, which could continue to disrupt the global trading system.

In this context, the hastily concluded trade agreement between Bangladesh and the United States - signed by the interim government just days before the national election - is already being questioned. Under this agreement, Bangladesh's interests appear to be significantly underrepresented. Moreover, the future of the agreement remains uncertain in light of the evolving legal and policy landscape.

On competitiveness, Bangladesh could see a relative advantage if higher country-specific tariffs on major competitors - particularly China - remain constrained or face legal scrutiny.

If the tariff gap between Bangladesh and higher-cost suppliers widens or becomes more predictable, US brands may accelerate diversification toward Bangladeshi factories.

However, competitiveness will still hinge on productivity, lead times, compliance standards, and infrastructure - not just tariffs.

In the bigger picture, the ruling reinforces constitutional limits on executive trade authority, which may lead to more congressional involvement in future tariff decisions.

For Bangladesh, a more rules-based US trade environment would likely be preferable to abrupt, executive-driven shifts.

Dr Selim Raihan is the executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem).

Newly appointed Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has instructed the authorities to ensure that the government's election pledges are reflected in the upcoming national budget, signalling the administration's intent to implement its commitments from the very first fiscal year.

He directed policymakers to move forward with budget preparations in a way that clearly demonstrates progress on campaign promises. The instructions were placed at a meeting held between the minister and officials from departments under the ministry at the Secretariat yesterday.

According to officials present at the meeting, Amir Khosru emphasised that the budget for FY2026-27, due to be unveiled in June, should visibly align with commitments made in the election manifesto of the BNP.

A senior finance ministry official, speaking to The Business Standard on condition of anonymity, said, "The finance minister has asked us to proceed with budget formulation so that the government's election pledges are reflected in the imminent budget."

Among the BNP's key economic promises were accelerating growth and investment, generating employment for youth, ensuring policy stability in trade and commerce, and reforming the revenue system.

The party also pledged to increase spending on health and education to above 5% of GDP — a move that would require significant additional fiscal resources.

One of the most discussed commitments at yesterday's meeting was the introduction of a nationwide "Family Card" programme. Implementing the scheme could require additional annual government spending ranging between Tk12, 000 crore and Tk24, 000 crore, according to officials familiar with preliminary estimates.

The BNP has also promised to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk10, 000, a measure that would carry substantial fiscal implications. Other commitments included keeping commodity prices stable, expanding support programmes for low- and middle-income groups, and ensuring stability in fuel and food supply chains.

Tarique Rahman-led government is set to present its first budget in June, leaving roughly three to three-and-a-half months for preparation. Officials said that not all promises would be implemented within a single fiscal year.

However, the finance minister wants the budget to clearly signal the government's policy direction and commitment to delivery.

Economy in 'difficult, stagnant' state; reforms, participatory budget top priorities: Khasru

In addition to expenditure priorities, Amir Khosru has set an ambitious revenue target, instructing the National Board of Revenue to take effective measures to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 8% in the next FY.

Describing the target as highly ambitious, a senior NBR official from the tax policy wing said achieving the 8% ratio within a year would require revenue growth of nearly 50%, which he termed "unrealistic" under current economic conditions.

"There has not been such a surge in economic activity that revenue collection could increase at that pace," he said.

According to NBR data, the tax-to-GDP ratio fell to 6.7% in FY2024-25. Over the past two decades, revenue collection has grown by an average of around 15% annually. Despite that growth, the ratio has stagnated or declined, prompting calls from within the revenue authority for more accurate GDP estimation.

Meanwhile, Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that implementing the BNP's election pledges would require revenue to grow at a high rate.

"Such growth is not impossible," he said, "but it will require extensive reforms."

Although a recent event organised by the Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, recommended revising the current budget for the remainder of the fiscal year.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan, however, said the issue was not discussed at yesterday's meeting.

Local business leaders have urged the government to review the country’s reciprocal trade agreement with the United States after the US Supreme Court on Friday ruled that Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs are illegal.

The trade deal, signed on February 9 by the interim government, had already been facing criticism. Businesses and economists argued that Bangladesh conceded too much in return for a reduction of the reciprocal tariff to 19 percent.

Besides, the deal was signed just two days before the national election, prompting questions over whether such a commitment should have been left to an elected government.

The court ruling has now complicated matters for countries that have already signed deals with the US.

By invalidating parts of the tariff regime and prompting President Trump to introduce a fresh 10 percent global duty under a separate legal authority, the ruling has cast worldwide uncertainty over how existing bilateral arrangements will operate.

Amid this chaos and confusion, Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), described the pact as “uneven”.

“The recently signed reciprocal trade agreement with the US is, in my view, an unequal deal. It should be reviewed to ensure that Bangladesh’s interests are adequately protected,” he said.

While the tariff agreement provides zero tariff access for products manufactured with US raw materials, Hatem said the benefit is conditional and limited. “In exchange, Bangladesh appears to have conceded on several difficult conditions,” he added.

After the court ruling, he now questioned the practical value of the new 10 percent levy. “It is still unclear how long this will continue,” he said, noting that the additional duty offers no distinct advantage to Bangladesh exporters.

AK Azad, managing director of Ha-Meem Group, said the legal development in Washington raises a more fundamental issue. “The court has struck down the tariff framework. If that is no longer in place, then what happens to the agreement signed just before the election?” he asked.

Azad said it is unclear whether the agreement automatically loses force following the ruling.

He suggested that the 10 percent global tariff could also face legal challenge, though he does not expect a sharp immediate impact on Bangladesh exports. Even if the agreement remains intact, he said, the government should reassess its options.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the US retains multiple statutory tools to shape trade policy.

Although certain tariff measures were declared unlawful, Washington has already invoked alternative provisions to impose the 10 percent duty and could initiate further trade investigations, he commented.

“They have multiple options at their disposal. We cannot predict which instruments they may use next,” he said.

In that context, Parvez questioned the haste in finalising the agreement and urged policymakers to prepare a clear negotiating strategy grounded in US trade law. “We need proper preparation and a realistic evaluation of our commitments,” he said.

Taskeen Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), also criticised the timing of the deal, describing the decision to sign it days before the election as “not prudent.”

“Such an agreement should ideally have been advanced by an elected government after carefully weighing all implications,” he said.

Ahmed said the DCCI has asked the new government to explore ways to review the arrangement. He said further measures from Washington could follow and that the agreement might affect Bangladesh’s trade relations with major partners such as China and India.

“The government should strategically assess the broader trade implications before moving forward,” he said.

Riad Mahmud, managing director of National Polymer Industries PLC, said Bangladesh could find itself in a stronger position if the agreement is rendered void as a result of the US court decision. However, there are several uncertainties.

There is confusion, he said, over whether the agreement lapses automatically or remains legally binding despite changes in the US tariff framework.

Asif Ibrahim, vice-chairman of Newage Group of Industries, described the ruling as a significant development in US trade policy.

He said businesses value stability, transparency and rule-based systems, which underpin investment decisions and long-term planning.

“The United States remains a valued and strategic trading partner for Bangladesh,” he said. “We hope both governments will continue constructive engagement to ensure predictable market access, strengthen bilateral economic ties and safeguard the interests of businesses and consumers in both countries.”

The Trump administration's ambitious tariff strategy against China has failed to achieve its stated economic and geopolitical goals, according to government and industry sources, leaving the US trade deficit at record highs, manufacturing under pressure, and China seizing new global markets.

Trade gap worsens despite tariffs

Contrary to claims that tariffs would shrink the US trade deficit, the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $1.241 trillion in 2025, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. While the combined deficit for goods and services fell marginally to $901.5 billion from $903.5 billion in 2024, the gains were largely symbolic, says the Chosun Daily.

The tariffs succeeded in reducing imports from China by nearly 30% to their lowest level since 2009, but US companies shifted their sourcing to countries including Vietnam, Southeast Asia, India, and Taiwan.

As a result, total US imports rose 4.5% ($145 billion), undermining efforts to narrow the deficit. Analysts emphasize that nearly all of the financial burden of tariffs-an estimated 96%-fell on US firms and consumers rather than foreign exporters.

Legal uncertainty further complicated the picture. The US Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot unilaterally impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to implement a temporary 10% global tariff while seeking alternative legal authorities to sustain its trade policy framework.

Manufacturing gains remain elusive

The tariffs, intended to rejuvenate US manufacturing, largely stunted growth in the sector. Over 83,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in 2025, and factory output stagnated for much of the year. Only in January 2026 did production rise by 0.6%, marking the largest monthly gain in 11 months, reports Reuters.

Certain sectors-particularly technology, machinery, electronics, and motor vehicles-showed modest growth, but economists attribute this largely to an "artificial intelligence spending boom," not tariff-driven protection. High costs of imported inputs and disrupted supply chains continued to squeeze domestic manufacturers.

China turns challenge into opportunity

While US imports from China plummeted, Beijing leveraged the trade conflict to expand its global influence. Overall Chinese exports grew over 5% in 2025, driving a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. To offset losses from the US, China redirected trade toward ASEAN countries, increasing sales by 13%, and to the European Union, which rose by 8%, says the Guardian.

Strategic partnerships also flourished. Canada signed new economic agreements with China, citing adaptation to "new global realities," while South Korea engaged in high-level state visits with Beijing. This realignment illustrates a growing willingness among US allies to diversify partnerships in response to Washington's unilateralism.

China's overproduction has flooded global markets with everything from steel to electric vehicles, prompting over 300 antidumping investigations worldwide and spurring countries like Mexico and India to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Sources describe this "export-led surge" as "strangling" manufacturers across both developed and emerging economies.

Erosion of the international trading order

The tariffs accelerated the breakdown of the World Trade Organization and the rules-based trading system established after World War II. Traditional allies, frustrated by US pressure, increasingly bypass Washington, negotiating trade agreements with China and India. European officials have even questioned the WTO's "most favored nation" principle, suggesting that access to low tariffs should be "earned" through commitments to fair trade rather than guaranteed, says the BBC.

Diplomatic turbulence extended to domestic politics abroad. In Canada, political instability-partly attributed to the US trade threat-led to the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after his deputy criticized the government's handling of US pressures.

US global standing in decline

Rather than strengthening American influence, tariffs have contributed to a perception of the US as an unreliable partner. Favorability ratings in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and Canada fell to near-record lows.

The Supreme Court's decision undermined US negotiating leverage, leaving international partners skeptical of Washington's ability to enforce trade threats, according to the Pew Research Center.

Domestically, policymakers faced setbacks. Job losses, stalled manufacturing growth, and rising input costs undermined claims that tariffs would bolster the US economy. Analysts warn that partisan polarization and internal governance challenges further weaken Washington's ability to project power globally.

The Trump-era tariffs illustrate the limits of unilateral protectionism in a globalized economy. Far from "making America great," the policies have exacerbated domestic economic pressures, failed to reduce the trade deficit, and created openings for China to expand its influence across Asia, Europe, and North America.

Experts argue that the episode underscores the complexity of global trade, where attempts to isolate one player can reverberate across markets and alliances in unforeseen ways.

While the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday against President Donald Trump's use of tariffs marks a clear setback for his use of trade levies as an economic weapon, analysts say it offers little immediate relief for the global economy.

Instead, they expect another bout of activity-crimping confusion combined with near-certainty that Trump will seek other means to replace the raft of global tariffs now struck down as unlawful.

In the meantime, a long list of uncertainties remains - including what new tariffs Trump will seek to impose, whether the funds from the annulled levies will have to be refunded, and whether territories that entered deals with the US to mitigate their impact will see those pacts reopened for review.

Responding to the ruling, Trump announced new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period and acknowledged it was not clear if or when there would be any refunds.

"In general, I think it will just bring in a new period of high uncertainty in world trade, as everybody tries to figure out what the US tariff policy will be going forward," said Varg Folkman, analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank.

"In the end it's going to look pretty much the same."

Economists at ING bank agreed: "The scaffolding has come down, but the building remains under construction. No matter how today's ruling reads, tariffs are here to stay."

Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies. So far, they are estimated to have brought in over $175 billion in funds.

By itself, the ruling chops the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%, trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

Bilateral deals with US could now 'unravel'

Yet no one expects this to remain the status quo: the Trump administration has served notice long before the ruling that it can and will use other legal vehicles to reimpose tariffs.

At the same time, the couple of dozen countries which entered bilateral deals with the US to set tariffs and in some cases invest in the United States - will now assess whether the Supreme Court ruling gives them leverage to renegotiate.

The lawmakers who must ratify the European Union's pact with the United States will do that as soon as Monday, said Bernd Lange, chair of the trade committee of the European Parliament.

"The era of unlimited, arbitrary tariffs ... might now be coming to an end," Lange said on X. "We must now carefully evaluate the ruling and its consequences."

Britain meanwhile expects its privileged trading position with the United States to continue, the government said on Friday of the baseline 10% tariff it agreed with Washington.

Indeed, many countries were learning to live with Trump's tariffs, the bulk of which were being shouldered by Americans, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released this month.

In the most recent update of its regular World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global growth at a "resilient" 3.3% in 2026.

China even reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-US markets as its producers adapted to the Trump onslaught.

Thus, some countries may choose to stick with their existing bilateral deals with the US rather than "inviting the kind of uncertainty we saw in the spring in 2025," EPC's Folkman said of the chaos caused by Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs.

Conversely, Niclas Poitiers, research fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel, noted there were a lot of political question marks over the EU-US trade deal, in which Europe was seen to have backed down and got the short end of the stick.

"There could be circumstances in which the deal unravels," he noted.

Bangladesh's garment exporters welcomed short-term relief after the US Supreme Court scrapped reciprocal tariffs but uncertainty looms large as President Donald Trump increased to 15% the 10% fresh levy he announced immediately after the court ruling.

Industry leaders and economists warn that persistent policy uncertainty in their largest export market could dampen longer-term gains.

Until Friday's ruling, Bangladesh faced a 20% reciprocal tariff on exports to the United States, despite signing — but not ratifying — a bilateral trade agreement that envisaged a 19% rate. Following the court's decision, President Donald Trump immediately declared a flat 10% tariff on all countries for 150 days, a measure that will also apply to Bangladesh. But, a day later, he chose to increase it to its highest ceiling of 15% under the relevant trade clause.

If implemented as announced, Bangladesh's competitive position in the US market would revert to levels seen prior to April 2025. Exporters say the reduced rate could lower import costs for American buyers, potentially translating into lower retail prices for apparel and stronger consumer demand.

Yet they caution that frequent shifts in US tariff policy are unsettling importers. Without clarity over future rates, buyers may avoid placing large, long-term orders and instead opt for smaller consignments to minimise risk exposure.

Agreement in limbo

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the bilateral trade agreement signed with Washington could effectively lapse following the court's ruling. However, analysts believe the United States may still press signatory countries to honour commitments made under the deal, including increased imports of US goods such as arms, wheat, liquefied natural gas and aircraft.

According to Trump, the court has curtailed his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but other statutory avenues remain open for the administration to pursue trade and tariff measures.

The White House has reportedly requested countries including India, the UK and the European Union — all of which have signed trade arrangements with the US — to adhere to concessions granted to Washington under those agreements, despite the shift to a 15% uniform tariff in place of the previously anticipated reciprocal rates.

Experts urge caution, not complacency

Exporters and economists have urged Bangladesh to avoid complacency and closely monitor developments at least until the US midterm elections in November.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's response should be guided by strategy rather than sentiment. He recommended using the 150-day window to identify areas of vulnerability, strengthen compliance with labour and environmental standards, and prepare for potential renegotiations.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, described the development as presenting both opportunities and risks. If the reciprocal tariff framework is invalidated, he said, Bangladesh could seek a review of prior commitments within the agreement's legal provisions — provided exit clauses and notification requirements permit it.

However, he cautioned that the US could still impose uniform tariffs, new non-tariff barriers, quotas or export restrictions. "A sudden withdrawal from the entire agreement could be strategically hazardous," he said, calling for a comprehensive review of existing commitments and preparation for alternative trade restrictions.

Former WTO Cell Director General Md Hafizur Rahman and RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said Bangladesh may face pressure to implement pledges on increased imports of US goods, even though the agreement has not been ratified and is not legally binding.

Industry reaction: relief tempered by risk

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Mahmudul Hasan Babu described the shift as a "lesser of two evils", noting that lower tariffs typically reduce prices and stimulate consumption.

However, he acknowledged that persistent tariff fluctuations are creating uncertainty. "Retailers will not leave shelves empty, but they are likely to import in smaller volumes. Overall exports could actually decline."

Ha-Meem Group Managing Director AK Azad said the 15% levy would not significantly affect Bangladesh, as it is substantially lower than the previous rate.

However, Azad predicted fresh legal challenges in the US against the new tariff regime, suggesting such measures could conflict with global trade rules.

Echoing similar concerns, Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, stressed that the situation remains temporary and unpredictable.

Economist Selim Raihan, professor at the University of Dhaka, said predictability is nearly as important as tariff levels for Bangladesh's garment sector.

"I would not expect a sharp spike in orders immediately, as US buyers typically plan months in advance," he said. While the court ruling may ease legal uncertainty and improve sentiment, he warned that further restrictive trade measures from Washington could disrupt the global trading system and continue to cast a shadow over Bangladesh's export outlook.

Bangladesh’s economy last week witnessed a mix of post-election gains in the capital market alongside data underscoring underutilised development spending. While investors regained confidence following the national polls, systemic challenges in fiscal management and trade readiness remain pressing.

The following is a recap of major stories covered by Star Business:

Rebuilding business confidence cannot wait (Feb 15)
Business leaders and economists urged the government to restore investor trust to revitalise the private sector. They noted that persistent law-and-order challenges and weak institutional coordination have eroded confidence, making immediate policy interventions essential for a sustainable turnaround.

Stocks jump to 18-month high after vote (Feb 16)
The Dhaka Stock Exchange surged following the national election, with indices hitting an 18-month high. Investors displayed renewed optimism as political clarity returned, sparking a buying spree across sectors and sharply increasing daily turnover.

US trade deal overshadows Bangladesh’s economic freedom (Feb 17)
A newly signed trade agreement with the US offers a 19 percent reciprocal tariff but imposes restrictive clauses. Critics argue that the requirement to use US-origin cotton for duty-free access may benefit Washington more than Dhaka’s garment industry.

Development spending plunges to 16-year low (Feb 17)
Implementation of the Annual Development Programme fell to a 16-year low due to political unrest and bureaucratic delays. Only a fraction of the allocated budget was utilised, threatening GDP growth targets and slowing critical infrastructure projects nationwide.

Interim govt stopped macro bleeding but couldn’t reignite growth (Feb 18)
While the interim administration stabilised foreign exchange reserves and narrowed the current account deficit, industrial growth remains stagnant. High inflation and energy shortages continue to hamper manufacturing, preventing full recovery.

Legal fights heat up in telecom sector (Feb 19)
Major telecom operators are locked in intensifying legal disputes with the regulator over audit claims and spectrum fees. These courtroom battles risk disrupting future investment and service quality in one of the country’s most dynamic sectors.

‘Substantial gaps’ found in LDC readiness (Feb 20)
A recent assessment revealed significant shortcomings in Bangladesh’s preparation for graduating from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. Experts warned that without addressing supply chain weaknesses and securing GSP+ benefits, the export sector faces a steep competitive cliff.

Rising costs of consumer goods and industrial materials are being driven by delays and lack of coordination at Chattogram Port, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (20 February).

"These inefficiencies are affecting both industrial production and market prices. If port problems are addressed, cargo clearance will speed up and additional costs will decrease," he said after a meeting with the Port Users Forum at his Mehedibagh residence.

The meeting was attended by representatives from the port, customs, transport workers, and other relevant stakeholders.

The minister said each point was discussed in detail, examining where and why problems occur and the reasons behind rising costs.

Some issues were resolved immediately, while a few require further inter-ministerial coordination and will take several more days to finalise.

Khasru highlighted that different stakeholders at the port operate independently, creating a fragmented system. "Each group is running its own operations, forming separate zones of control. Responsibilities are unclear, which contributes to rising costs," he said.

He added that delays in cargo clearance, extra charges, and procedural complexities are significant factors behind increased costs.

"These additional expenses are being passed on to consumers and are reflected in both industrial production and market prices," he said.

"The impact is not limited to consumer goods. Almost all imported products, including raw materials used in industries, are affected, and the public bears the burden of these additional costs. With Ramadan approaching, special emphasis is being given to faster clearance of essential items. Delays in delivery could push up market prices, while faster clearance would help reduce these extra costs," he said.

He also said the government has taken initiatives to ease the pressure on the national economy caused by port inefficiencies.

"Some solutions have already been implemented today, and others will be finalised through discussion. We hope effective measures will be taken very soon. Once port operations speed up, cargo clearance will improve, production costs will decrease, and market price pressures will ease," Khasru added.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) extended its losing streak today (19 February), marking the fourth consecutive session of decline since the national election.

Over the four trading sessions, the benchmark DSEX shed a cumulative 135 points, reflecting persistent selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment.

Today, the DSEX fell 53 points to close at 5,466. The blue-chip DS30 index dropped 12 points to 2,098, while the Shariah-based DSES declined 10 points to end at 1,095.

Turnover on the premier bourse plunged 40.17% to Tk560 crore, down from Tk936 crore in the previous session, indicating weaker market participation. Of the 392 issues traded, only 46 advanced, while 313 declined and 33 remained unchanged, underscoring the broad-based downturn.

Market participants attributed the slump to investor caution as they assessed the post-election political and economic landscape.

Many investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting clearer signals on policy direction and the formation of a new securities commission.

The lack of clarity regarding regulatory leadership and potential reforms continued to weigh on sentiment.

Analysts said uncertainty over possible regulatory changes and expectations surrounding appointments at the securities regulator contributed to subdued trading activity. Institutional investors, in particular, appeared reluctant to take fresh positions without greater visibility on policy continuity and market-stabilisation measures.

Over the past year, prolonged political uncertainty and regulatory decisions that failed to restore investor confidence have driven a sustained market downturn. A significant number of retail investors exited the market, while institutional and high-net-worth investors largely stayed inactive, leading to notable declines even in fundamentally strong stocks.

All major large-cap sectors closed in the red. The NBFI sector posted the steepest loss, falling 1.75%, followed by Engineering (1.46%), Fuel & Power (1.23%), and Telecommunication (1.20%). Pharmaceuticals declined 0.94%, Food & Allied lost 0.67%, and the Bank sector edged down 0.12%.

Block market transactions accounted for 3.5% of total turnover, reflecting limited negotiated large-volume trades.

Analysts believe the market may gradually stabilise in the coming months if policy consistency and investor-friendly measures are ensured.

Robi Axiata, the country's second-largest mobile network operator, posted a net profit of Tk937 crore in 2025 – its first annual profit since listing on the stock exchange five years ago. The earnings represent a 33.3% year-on-year growth compared to 2024.

Riding on improved profitability, the board recommended a 17.5% cash dividend – Tk1.75 per share – the highest since its market debut in 2020. The proposed payout accounts for 97.8% of the company's total profit for the year. In 2024, Robi declared a 15% cash dividend.

The board approved the financial statements and dividend at a meeting held today (19 February).

Managing Director and CEO Ziad Shatara said that despite a continued decline in voice revenue, the operator managed to deliver positive revenue growth driven by strong expansion in data services. Growth was supported by a substantial increase in data and 4G users, alongside higher data consumption per subscriber.
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He noted that sustained high inflation and challenging macroeconomic conditions constrained subscriber spending, moderating overall revenue growth. He also highlighted that 62% of total revenue was contributed to the government exchequer through various taxes, describing the tax regime as excessively burdensome for industry progress.

However, with nearly 70% of active subscribers now using 4G, Shatara said Robi is positioning itself as the preferred operator for digitally savvy consumers.

The company credited its operational excellence strategy for strengthening financial resilience amid a challenging revenue environment. Disciplined capital allocation ensured network investments aligned with demand growth, service quality improvements, and long-term efficiency gains.

In 2025, Robi deployed an additional 4G sites across 40 districts, expanding coverage in underserved areas.

According to a press release, total revenue rose marginally by 0.4% year-on-year to Tk9,992.2 crore. While voice revenue declined 2.9%, data revenue grew 5.1% compared to 2024. Earnings per share stood at Tk1.79.

Total capital expenditure reached Tk1,304.1 crore during the year. In the fourth quarter (October–December), revenue rose 2.9% quarter-on-quarter to Tk2,584.9 crore.

At the end of 2025, Robi's active subscriber base stood at 5.74 crore. Data subscribers reached 4.45 crore, while 4G subscribers totalled 3.99 crore. Data users accounted for 77.5% of active subscribers, and 69.5% were 4G users – the highest proportions among operators in the country.

The operator's network now includes over 19,000 4G sites, achieving 98.98% population coverage. As the first operator to launch 5G services in Bangladesh, Robi said it continues to build the ecosystem necessary for broader 5G expansion.

Robi Axiata is a public limited company majority-owned (61.82%) by Axiata Group Berhad. India-based Bharti Airtel holds 28.18% of the shares, while the remaining 10% is owned by public shareholders.

AGM

The annual general meeting (AGM) has been scheduled for 22 April, while the record date has been fixed for 16 March to determine eligible shareholders.

According to its price-sensitive information, the company's net asset value (NAV) stood at Tk69.86 billion, with NAV per share rising slightly to Tk13.34 from Tk13.08 at the end of 2024.

Its net operating cash flow per share also increased to Tk9.04, up from Tk8.83 in 2024.

Last year, Robi Axiata Limited secured a no-objection certificate from the Bangladesh Bank in favour of SmartPay Limited to operate as a Payment Service Provider (PSP).

SmartPay Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Robi Axiata, is a private company limited by shares incorporated under the Companies Act, 1994. Its principal activity is to provide fintech-driven electronic payment services, including bill payments and other related services.