Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has instructed officials to ensure that all decisions regarding any agreement on the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) at Chattogram Port be taken in a manner that protects national interests.

He gave the directive while presiding over a meeting at the Secretariat today (24 February), Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) Executive Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun told reporters after the meeting.

Responding to a question on the current government's stance to this end, given that the interim government had been in favour of the agreement on NCT's lease to foreign operator, Ashik Chowdhury said the previous administration's position is no longer relevant.

"If it is possible to sign the agreement while protecting national interest, only then will the government proceed," he said.

Describing the discussion as preliminary, the Bida chief said it was the first day's meeting and it would not be appropriate to reach a quick conclusion.

Asked about the prime minister's specific instructions, Ashik said, "Today we briefed him; he did not brief us. He listened and gave some preliminary directives."

His remarks come following protests and debate over leasing out the New Mooring Container Terminal at the Chattogram Port.

The country's garment manufacturers and exporters have sought the urgent release of outstanding cash incentives and a Tk14,000 crore low-interest "soft loan" to help factories pay workers' wages and bonuses ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr.

In a letter to Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association said the support was needed to ease potential cash-flow pressure in the run-up to the festival.

A two-member BGMEA delegation – Senior Vice-President Inamul Haq Khan Bablu and Vice-President Shehab Udduza Chowdhury – handed the letter to the governor during a meeting today afternoon (24 February).

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Shehab said around Tk5,700 crore in cash incentives for the ready-made garment sector remains unpaid.

"We have requested that the outstanding incentive funds be released quickly so that factories do not face difficulties in paying wages and Eid bonuses," he said.

In addition, the association has asked for a soft loan equivalent to two months' wages on easy terms.

According to BGMEA estimates, the sector's monthly wage bill stands at about Tk7,000 crore. That means factories would require roughly Tk1,400 crore to cover two months' wages – the amount mentioned in the letter as the proposed soft loan.

Shehab further noted that not all factories receive incentives equally. Woven and sweater factories, in particular, receive comparatively lower support, putting them under greater strain when it comes to paying wages.

He added that in February and March, nearly 25 out of 60 days were affected by public holidays and election-related closures. "Paying 60 days' wages after only 35 working days will be difficult for many factories," he said.

The governor has assured the delegation that he would speak to the relevant ministry regarding the quick release of incentive funds, according to BGMEA.

On the issue of salary support, he advised the association to approach the Ministry of Finance. The governor made no negative remarks and received the proposals positively, the BGMEA leaders claimed.

Call for priority for SMEs

The BGMEA has also called for special priority for small and medium enterprises, warning that SMEs may be deprived under the existing "first in, first out" system used in distributing incentives.

The association said a separate mechanism is needed for SMEs and has sent a letter to the relevant ministry proposing the creation of a dedicated fund for the sector.

It suggested that funds allocated from the budget should first be distributed to SMEs on a priority basis, with the remaining amount disbursed to other factories.

Shehab said the governor responded positively and instructed the relevant department to look into the matter. He expressed hope that the change could be implemented in the next round of incentive distribution.

Responding to questions about why the association approached the central bank when incentive funds are allocated by the government, the BGMEA said it had already written to the Ministry of Finance and held meetings with the finance minister and finance secretary.

The meeting with the governor was part of regular policy coordination, it added.

Asked why such loan demands arise before Eid each year, the BGMEA leaders said the current situation is different.

They cited recent political unrest, protests, labour dissatisfaction, and the election climate as factors affecting industrial activity. They also said the export sector has come under pressure from tariff policies introduced by US President Donald Trump.

Export growth has remained negative for the past seven months, according to the association. In this context, the BGMEA said, quick support is needed to help sustain the industry.

Revenue collection in January grew by only 3.2% year-on-year – the weakest in recent months – signalling stress in trade flows and slowing economic activity.

With customs revenue remaining volatile and domestic demand softening, the slowdown threatens to complicate the new government's fiscal management in the months ahead.

The January figure marks a sharp deceleration from the robust growth recorded earlier in the fiscal year, when monthly collections expanded by 18% to 25% between July and September. Although revenue growth remained in double digits through much of the first half, January's modest increase indicates that the initial rebound in imports and domestic activity is losing momentum.

In January alone, revenue collection fell short of the target by Tk15,000 crore.

According to updated data released by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) today (23 February), revenue collection during the first seven months (July–January) of the current fiscal year fell short of the target by more than Tk60,000 crore.

Although revenue growth during the July–January period stood at around 13%, actual collection reached Tk2.63 lakh crore against a target of Tk2.83 lakh crore.

Breaking with convention after the last budget, the government revised the annual revenue target upward by Tk54,000 crore midway through the fiscal year, raising it to Tk5.54 lakh crore.

NBR data show that over the past seven months, average monthly revenue collection stood at slightly below Tk32,000 crore. To meet the revised target, however, the revenue authority would need to collect more than Tk66,000 crore per month on average for the remaining months of the fiscal year.

Experts say this is not realistically achievable.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Business Standard, "The economy has not gained the kind of momentum that would allow the NBR to collect revenue at such a high rate. As a result, the government is heading towards another large shortfall this fiscal year."

She added that the new government under Tarique Rahman has incorporated additional spending commitments in its election manifesto, including family cards and agricultural loan waivers. If expected revenue is not realised, fiscal pressure on the new administration will intensify.

While revenue growth exceeded 15% in six of the seven months of the fiscal year, officials were unable to explain the sudden drop in January. When contacted, a senior NBR official said he could not specify the reason behind the sharp slowdown.

Data analysis shows that import tax collection in January actually declined by 1.31% compared to the same month last year. Value-added tax (VAT) collection grew by only 2.57%, while income tax recorded relatively better growth at 7%, though still modest.

Nearly 90% of import tax is collected through Chattogram Custom House. When contacted, Mohammad Shafi Uddin, Commissioner of Custom House Chattogram, said the customs house recorded 15% growth in January. Why overall growth remained weak despite this remains unclear.

Explaining the underperformance in revenue collection, Fahmida Khatun cited slow investment and sluggish economic growth as major factors. She also pointed to institutional capacity constraints within the NBR, saying the tax net is not expanding and tax evasion is not being effectively curbed.

"Necessary reforms to boost revenue collection have largely not been implemented," she said. "As a result, prospects for stronger revenue performance in the coming months also appear limited."

The general election held on 12 February has reduced near-term political and policy uncertainty in Bangladesh, a development that could bolster macroeconomic stability, according to Fitch Ratings.

However, in a report released on 22 February US time, the global ratings agency cautioned that the ultimate impact on the country's credit profile will depend on the new government's ability to execute critical reforms to address weak governance, banking-sector fragilities, and a fragile external liquidity position.

Fitch noted that the supermajority secured by the BNP-led alliance, coupled with a successful referendum, provides a clear mandate for constitutional and economic shifts.

High inflation, tight policy rate weigh on economic momentum in Q2 of FY26: MCCI

The BNP won 209 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies secured 77 of the 299 contested seats.

This two-thirds majority is expected to support the implementation of the government's policy agenda and reduce the risk of a political vacuum that could otherwise complicate economic decision-making, according to Fitch's report.

The ratings agency highlighted that the referendum approval could pave the way for institutional strengthening, including a shift to a bicameral legislative system, enhanced judicial independence, and the institution of term limits for the prime minister.

Despite these positive signals, Fitch warned that implementation remains complex and execution risks remain elevated.

UN CDP to assess Bangladesh’s graduation readiness as 3-year deferral sought

It also noted that political polarisation and the military's potential role in politics continue to pose lingering risks.

Fitch observed that the BNP's manifesto signals a commitment to continuing the economic and fiscal reforms initiated during the caretaker government period.

The agenda also points to higher social spending, which could, in Fitch's observation, add pressure to public finances if revenue‑mobilisation measures underperform, and would test the authorities' ability to balance growth and electoral commitments with fiscal consolidation.

Additionally, this agenda aligns with the $5.5 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme running through 2026-2027 since 2023.

A centrepiece of this fiscal plan is a medium-term goal to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10% through tax administration reforms and a broader tax base.

Bangladesh’s forex reserves rise to $29.86b

"This matters for credit quality because Bangladesh's structurally low revenue intake remains a key weakness," states the report.

Fitch currently projects government revenue-to-GDP to reach 8.6% by the 2027 fiscal year, up from 7.8% in FY25.

The agency further noted a pro-private-sector tilt in the new government's stance, aiming to lift foreign direct investment to 2.5% of GDP from a Fitch-estimated 0.4% in FY25.

The BNP's pledges to tackle non-performing loans and improve banking governance were also cited as essential steps to addressing constraints on the sovereign credit profile.

ADP spending drops by Tk9,300cr YoY in 7 months

On the external front, foreign-exchange reserves showed improvement, reaching $29.7 billion as of 10 February, compared to $22.3 billion in June 2024.

The Fitch report concluded that a manageable external debt repayment profile and the prevalence of government-backed debt help contain refinancing risks, but also underscore the importance of maintaining macro-stabilisation policies that keep external financing risks in check.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has started budget-related work for the fiscal year 2026-27 and has sought proposals from business bodies and other relevant organisations.

According to the NBR, letters have already been sent on 18 February from the budget-related departments asking them to submit their proposals and recommendations on the budget to the NBR by 15 March.

In a letter to the business bodies, signed by Barrister Badruzzaman Munshi, second secretary of the NBR's VAT wing, the agency said, "You are requested to send your organisation's opinions with the aim of rationalising the tax-to-GDP ratio, facilitating ease of doing business, and resolving procedural complexities."

Sources at the NBR said pre-budget discussions with business representatives and other stakeholders may begin by the last week of this month in preparation for the next budget. To this end, the NBR has also formed a committee, appointing a first secretary of NBR as the chief budget coordinator, sources said.

This will be the first budget for the new government led by the BNP. Although budgets during the previous two BNP governments were prepared under the leadership of late finance minister M Saifur Rahman, this time the budget will be prepared under the leadership of Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury.

He has already provided preliminary directions during a meeting held last Saturday with officials from the NBR and other relevant departments regarding the budget, according to officials.

Far from being a source of relief, the Supreme Court's takedown of President Donald Trump's tariffs has infused new risks and uncertainties into trade policy, US debt and the dollar.

The Court made no decision on refunds, leaving open the possibility of a hole of around $170 billion in US finances. Trump's furious rush to impose replacement levies has already raised hackles in Europe and fresh confusion about trade policy.

The dollar slid through Monday in Asia, most notably against havens such as the Swiss franc and yen, while Treasuries have been stumped as markets struggled to come to grips with risks to the fiscal position and untangle the implications for inflation.

The clearest takeaway seems to be that Trump's replacement tariffs are lower and should ease short-term price pressures. But the Court has also crimped his power and the consequences of that for markets and the economy are unpredictable.

"Uncertainty is back, and given the latest muscle-flexing by European leaders, the risk of escalation is now higher than it was a year ago," ING analysts said in a note.

For Treasuries, one risk is litigation in pursuit of refunds - something likely to spend months in lower courts.

Estimates for the revenue raised so far by tariffs run above $175 billion, a modest piece of total projected revenues of more than $5 trillion, but enough to risk extra fundraising.

Dan Siluk, head of global short-duration and liquidity at Janus Henderson, said refunds will mean higher debt issuance.

"At the margin, that raises the risk of further steepening pressure at the long end of the curve, particularly if refund-related issuance coincides with already elevated borrowing needs and ongoing QT (quantitative tightening)," he said.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries moved a touch higher to 4.1% on Friday but have come down from peaks above 4.5% in mid-2025, alongside signs of cooling inflation and expectations for Fed rate cuts. The curve has steepened, led by a drop in short-term yields.

On Monday, the cash market was closed in Asia owing to a holiday in Tokyo but the futures-implied yield was a fraction lower at 4.05%.

"Markets are currently focused on the short-term impact – namely, lower inflation and interest rates falling more quickly," said Alberto Conca, chief investment officer at LFG+ZEST in Lugano, Switzerland.

"I think that's rather short-sighted, though, because it increases an already enormous deficit, and yield curves ought to steepen more significantly given that the US government's finances are, effectively, out of control."

Revenue uncertainty

The Congressional Budget Office had estimated that Trump's tariffs would generate about $300 billion annually over the next decade for the world's largest economy.

Trump's 15% replacement tariff lasts only for 150 days and it is not yet clear exactly when or on whom it would be imposed. Some, including Britain and Australia, had 10% rates under the former rule, while many Asian countries had higher rates.

"The bond market faces the biggest concern," said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, citing bigger issuance should the government be forced to issue refunds while also footing other stimulus bills.

To be sure, the market has not reacted significantly and there is a view that a longer-lasting fallout can be avoided.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are in the camp that the debt market will not worry much about the fiscal deficit, both because Trump will find substitutes for tariffs and because any potential extra funding will be via shorter Treasury bills.

Trump also may not be able to fulfil his wish to give every American a $2,000 tariff dividend cheque, which would have been another source of some inflation.

Still, another round of policy and revenue uncertainty is underway. So far the reaction of the dollar has been to extend losses - it shed about 0.4% on the euro on Monday, for a drop nearing 12% since Trump's second term began in early 2025.

The outlook hinges on how traders look through the chaos. Barclays analysts said the Supreme Court's ruling could be seen as an example of checks and balances in operation, and should take some of the risk premium out of US assets and the dollar.

Others are focused on inflation.

"When you have this much liquidity and lowering of tariffs this all fuels growth and causes rates to rise," said Eddie Ghabour, CEO at Key Advisors Wealth Management in Delaware.

"These things can also cause inflation to accelerate in the months to come. I think the bond market is sniffing this out."

Extortion surged by up to 50 percent following the fall of the Awami League government in the 2024 mass uprising, while corruption in public offices persisted throughout the 18-month tenure of the subsequent interim government, claimed the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI).

Businesses were being forced to pay the same level of extortion as before the fall of the Awami League government, and in many cases up to 50 percent more, said DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed.

“If extortion is not stopped, we will have to shut down our businesses,” he told reporters at a press conference titled “Expectations from the New Government to Address the Current Economic Situation” held at the chamber’s auditorium in Motijheel yesterday.

Ahmed urged the new government to tackle both extortion and corruption. Otherwise, he said, the government will not be able to achieve its goal of creating 1 crore new jobs.

The DCCI president said corruption at public offices had not decreased during the interim administration. “Not for a single day has corruption in public offices declined,” he said.

When asked who was responsible for extortion, Ahmed pointed to individuals linked to the ruling party, the police, and revenue authorities.

He said those demanding money often claimed to represent the party in power. “They come and say they are from the government party. Whoever is in office, they say they are from that party, and we have to pay. They demand money for events, for neighbourhood events.”

Calling extortion and corruption “embedded in our blood,” he said, “If extortion does not stop, we will have to close our businesses and leave.”

The DCCI president said payments were demanded to enter factories, offices, and even on the streets. He urged the new government to send a strong message against such practices.

Reviving the economy, he said, would require energising the private sector. He outlined four priorities.

Those are improving law and order to stop extortion, eliminating corruption to restore investor confidence, allowing non-wilful loan defaulters to return to business with support if needed, and reducing bank lending rates to a reasonable level.

He said that the BNP government has assumed office amid deep structural weaknesses and growing economic pressures.

Private sector credit growth fell to 6.49 percent in fiscal year 2024-25, the lowest in 22 years, he said.

According to the president of the chamber, private investment declined to 22.48 percent of gross domestic product, while credit growth slipped further to 6.10 percent in December 2025. Export growth slowed to roughly 0.5 percent during the same month.

“These challenges are caused by structural weaknesses, including stress in the banking sector, rising import costs, energy shortages, and an unstable law and order situation,” he said.

Turning to monetary policy, the business leader argued that holding the policy rate at 10 percent had failed to tame inflation and instead driven lending rates above 16 percent.

“As a result, bank borrowing has become costly and unviable for businesses,” he said, urging authorities to cut the policy rate or provide subsidised credit lines for productive sectors.

He said non-performing loans (NPLs) have climbed to nearly Tk 6.5 lakh crore, and added that not all classified loans reflect wilful default.

“A large number of SMEs became classified due to working capital shortages caused by Covid-19, global conflicts, around 41 percent currency depreciation over two years, and high interest rates,” he said.

The trade leader called for a clear distinction between large wilful defaulters and firms affected by external shocks, and for targeted support to viable businesses.

He also suggested reducing dependence on banks by strengthening the capital market and listing large state-owned enterprises on the stock exchange.

Turning to energy and revenue issues, the DCCI president said the country faces a daily gas shortfall of around 30 percent, disrupting industrial production. Gas prices for new industries are set at Tk 40 per unit and Tk 42 for captive power plants, adding pressure on manufacturers.

Although installed generation capacity stands at 27,000 megawatts, actual output is much lower, leading to high-capacity payments. Ahmed called for a modern and integrated energy policy, noting that the last comprehensive update was in 1996.

He recommended differential pricing to encourage off-peak electricity use.

On tax policy, he welcomed the BNP government’s plan to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 8 percent but said full automation of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is essential.

“The tax administration system is still partly manual, which leads to inefficiency and corruption. Automation is now necessary,” he said, adding that the turnover tax should fall from 1 percent to 0.6 percent, as businesses continue to recover from prolonged economic shocks.

Ahmed criticised a 41 percent average tariff increase by the Chittagong Port Authority, despite its surplus in fiscal year 2024.

With roughly 88 percent of trade passing through Chattogram Port, he said that the hike would raise costs and called for an immediate review. He also pressed for full implementation of the Bangladesh Single Window system to simplify trade procedures and cut time and costs.

The chamber’s president welcomed the decision to defer Bangladesh’s graduation from least developed country status by three years to allow better preparation. He also advised careful evaluation of a recent US trade agreement.

“If necessary, the agreement should be renegotiated to ensure a win-win outcome,” he said.

Dhaka Stocks has lost momentum after an initial post-election rally, as institutional investors adopted a cautious stance amid growing expectations of a leadership change at the capital market regulator – a long-standing demand of retail investors.

The newly formed government has already begun searching for a new Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) chairman, as the existing commission, formed during the interim administration and headed by Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, failed to restore investor confidence.

The regulator is also likely to undergo restructuring, according to officials familiar with discussions at the finance ministry, as policymakers seek broader structural reforms in a market that has underperformed relative to the country's economic growth, frustrating both local and foreign investors.

Finance ministry sources said several private-sector professionals, along with a professor from the University of Dhaka, have shown interest in leading the commission. However, capital market stakeholders said they favour market-oriented leadership from the private sector due to bitter past experience.

The benchmark DSEX index climbed nearly 200 points to a five-month high on 15 February – the first trading session after the BNP's landslide victory in the 13th national election – reflecting initial investor optimism over the new government.

The upward trend, however, proved short-lived. The market turned negative from the very next session amid uncertainty over whether the existing commission would remain in place.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury also hinted at restructuring the regulator in a recent comment, saying the current upward trend may reflect expectations of a democratic government, but stressing that only sustainable, structural reforms can ensure long-term stability.

Speaking to journalists at his residence in Mehedibag, Chattogram, on Friday – during his first visit to the port city after taking the oath as a minister in the new government – Khosru said temporary gains driven by sentiment would not bring fundamental change to the capital market.

The minister said the government planned comprehensive reforms, including amendments to laws and regulatory frameworks, while strengthening the role of the BSEC. He stressed the need to improve regulatory effectiveness, enhance transparency and adopt a zero-tolerance stance against irregularities.

Khosru also said efforts would be made to bring fundamentally strong and profitable companies to the stock market and attract both domestic and foreign investment funds to improve liquidity and rebuild investor confidence.

Investors seek market-friendly leadership

A senior banker at a private commercial bank told The Business Standard that the sharp rise on the first trading day after the election reflected investor confidence, particularly as shares linked to BNP-aligned business groups recorded notable gains.

Wishing not to be named, the banker said investors are expecting a restructuring of the commission, as the current chairman is seen as not market-friendly and has been unpopular from the outset due to creating distance from stakeholders.

"The government should appoint someone market-oriented to lead the regulatory body, either from market participants or from academia, like a finance professor," the official said.

Former banker Khondoker Rashed Maqsood assumed office as BSEC chairman following the regime change on 5 August 2024. During his roughly one-and-a-half-year tenure, he faced repeated protests from investors who accused the regulator of failing to revive market performance.

Stakeholders said trading activity weakened as key market players distanced themselves from the regulator, resulting in persistently low turnover. Moreover, no new initial public offerings (IPOs) entered the market under his leadership, further straining merchant banks.

Maqsood's commission also imposed what many described as unrealistic fines totalling nearly Tk1,000 crore on various companies and individuals over past corruption and market manipulation, creating negative sentiment among investors.

Longstanding governance concerns

While Asian frontier markets have grown rapidly, Bangladesh has lagged behind over the past 15 years under the leadership of former BSEC chairmen M Khairul Hossain and Shibli Rubayat Ul Islam, who critics say failed to establish proper governance in the market.

Both were finance professors at Dhaka University and faced allegations of corruption and collusion in market manipulation with certain stakeholders.

Shibli Rubayat, who resigned in August last year following the regime change, was arrested in February in a corruption case filed by the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC).

He was also permanently barred by the BSEC from all capital market activities over his involvement in a share price manipulation scheme linked to Padma Printers and Colour.

Khairul Hossain, who led the regulator from 2011 to early 2020, was criticised for approving numerous financially weak companies for IPOs, often at inflated prices, which analysts say eroded investor confidence despite strong macroeconomic growth at the time.

His successor, Shibli, who took charge in 2020, was accused of shifting focus away from strengthening the primary market and instead fostering alleged collusive ties with certain market players and insider traders, prioritising short-term gains in the secondary market over long-term stability.

Following what stakeholders describe as unsuccessful leadership by academic appointees, market participants are urging the government to choose a chairman with both technical market knowledge and public policy understanding.

A merchant banker, speaking on condition of anonymity, said investor distrust in the existing commission was evident in market performance during the interim government period.

He added that while university professors may have theoretical expertise, they often lack the practical experience of private sector players. He suggested the new commission should include a mix of academics and private sector professionals to help restore investor confidence.

Foreign investment in the country's stock market weakened in 2025, with overseas investors pulling out a net Tk270 crore from equities amid economic fragility, market volatility and pre-election uncertainty, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The data shows that foreign investors sold shares worth Tk2,095.34 crore in 2025, while purchasing stocks valued at Tk1,825.07 crore, resulting in a net negative position of Tk270 crore for the year.

Analysts and insiders said foreign investors remained cautious in the capital market ahead of the February 2026 election amid political and economic uncertainty, continuing to withdraw funds throughout the year.

Reviewing the 2025 trading data, they believe that following the election, foreign investors' confidence in the market has improved, which is expected to turn their net position positive in the coming months.

A fortnightly data for February (1 to 15) showed that in the first 15 days, foreign trading year-on-year increased by 48% to Tk173 crore, which was Tk116.63 crore in the same time of 2025.

Ahsanur Rahman, CEO of BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage, a key brokerage house for foreign investors, told The Business Standard, "Foreign investors were more cautious in 2025 due to the upcoming election and economic uncertainty."

He said that following the election, investors' confidence increased. "In post-election trading, foreigners have turned more bullish in the market and they are concentrating on buying good and fundamental stocks."

He expressed hope that foreign investors' net investment position would turn positive in February, as their investments are likely to exceed their sales.

Md Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities, also expressed hope that foreign investment in the capital market is likely to increase after the election, as he has observed fresh fund inflows into the market.

He said that due to various factors – including the prevailing economic conditions – foreign investors remained very cautious, which is why they continued to withdraw funds.

"If the capital market functions properly and the supply of quality stocks is ensured, foreign fund inflows may increase in Bangladesh, as many investors are now shifting towards emerging and frontier markets," he added.

Additionally, reform initiatives by the capital market regulator, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission, kept the market at a standstill as no IPO to raise funds, and some actions for manipulation led to market volatility.

The existing commission was formed by the interim government in August 2024 after the student-led uprising.

In 2025, foreign turnover in stocks – both buying and selling – slightly increased by 8% to Tk3,920 crore compared with 2024.

Foreign investors withdrew significant funds from stocks in 2024 as well, with their net investment position turning negative by Tk261 crore.

Over the past eight years, foreign investors' net investment position was negative in seven of those years, with 2023 being the only year with a positive position of Tk64 crore.

Analysing the 2025 data, in five out of the 12 months, foreign investors' net investment position was positive, meaning that in those months they bought more shares than they liquidated through sales.

From May to August 2025, foreign investors were particularly active in buying shares, which pushed stocks higher and lifted the DSEX significantly.

Since then, until December, they continued to sell off shares to withdraw funds.

Lack of good stocks

Market experts and investors said that in the local capital, there is a lack of quality and good stocks.

They advised that the new government take initiatives to make the capital market vibrant and to list state-owned, highly profitable firms on the market.

Over the last year under the interim government, there was much discussion to enlist the state-owned firms on the stock market, but not a single firm got enlisted.

Ahsanur Rahman said, "There is a shortage of quality stocks in the market to attract foreign investors. Only a handful of stocks meet their return expectations.

"To revitalise the capital market and draw foreign participation, we must list more fundamentally strong companies."

Bangladesh's export momentum braces for fresh headwinds as uncertainty over the fate of the United States' short-term 15% tariff—whether it will be extended, increased or withdrawn after five months—has prompted American buyers to pause fresh commitments.

Beyond the freeze in new orders, the tariff—imposed by President Donald Trump after the US Supreme Court scrapped reciprocal tariffs—has triggered renegotiations on existing shipments.

Several US buyers are now demanding 2% price cuts on goods already in the pipeline, following the reduction of the tariff from 20% to 15%. Exporters say the move threatens to further erode already thin margins.

Buyers 'sitting on the fence'

At least eight Bangladeshi exporters told The Business Standard that US clients are "sitting on the fence" amid rapidly shifting trade policies. Seven reported a clear pause in decision-making, warning that order flows will not normalise without long-term policy clarity.

Shovon Islam, managing director of Sparrow Group, said buyers are in observation mode.

"They are deferring decisions until the final tariff structure becomes clear. Without certainty, long-term planning is impossible," he said.

SM Khaled, managing director of Snowtex Group, echoed the concern. "Our current order book is secured until June, but there is deep uncertainty about what happens after the five-month window," he said.

For Khaled, whose annual exports exceed $200 million, the US accounts for 20% of total trade. The present volatility, he added, has created a procurement stalemate, with buyers reluctant to commit beyond immediate needs.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, described the situation as "unpredictable".

"Buyers are in the dark about where the tariff rates will finally land," he said. According to him, customers are placing only minimum-volume orders, a conservative approach that could severely hurt Bangladesh's garment exports if prolonged.

Policy volatility weighs on trade

Economists say the stop-start nature of US trade policy is amplifying risk.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, pointed to the legal oscillation shaping US tariff measures.

"The Supreme Court struck down the initial reciprocal tariffs, but the administration quickly introduced new ones under different statutes," he noted.

Because President Trump retains the authority to impose targeted or "surgical" tariffs on specific products or countries, Mustafizur warned that buyers are operating in a vacuum of uncertainty—booking orders only when unavoidable.

The US remains Bangladesh's largest apparel market, absorbing around 20% of total garment exports.

Data from the US-based Office of Textiles and Apparel (Otexa) show that US imports from Bangladesh reached $8.18 billion in 2025, accounting for 11% of total US global apparel sourcing.

In April 2025, the Trump administration initially set a 37% reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh, later negotiated down to 20% by August. Exporters now fear that a uniform 15% tariff applied equally to all countries would wipe out Bangladesh's relative advantage.

"The earlier tariff structure gave us a head start over China and India," Khaled said. "We captured orders shifting out of China because of higher costs there. With a flat tariff, that incentive disappears."

Otexa data show that between January and November 2025, Chinese garment exports to the US fell 34%, while Bangladesh's shipments grew 12%, alongside gains by several other major apparel exporters.

A level tariff regime, exporters argue, could reverse that trend by intensifying competition.

Buying houses squeezed as buyers seek discounts

The reduction from 20% to 15% has sparked immediate renegotiation attempts.

The Business Standard has seen an email from a mid-sized US buyer requesting a 2% downward adjustment on already-placed orders that have yet to clear customs.

"Please note due to recent tariff changes, Charles is requiring a 2% adjustment to the DDP cost for any goods that have not cleared customs," the message reads, instructing compliance by close of business Monday (US time).

A senior official at a Dhaka-based buying house, speaking anonymously, said the burden of adjustment would fall on intermediaries.

"We cannot push manufacturers for further discounts. We have to absorb the cuts ourselves," he said. For his firm, which sends 90% of its shipments to the US, the financial exposure is significant.

Other agents said the weekend timing of Washington's tariff shift left them scrambling as the US business week began, anticipating further renegotiation requests.

Mohammad Hatem warned that more buyers are likely to follow suit.

Yet exporters argue that the 5 percentage-point tariff reduction should not be captured entirely by retailers. They say manufacturers had already slashed prices during the higher-tariff period to keep orders flowing and deserve to share in the benefit.

Shovon Islam said his group plans to seek a 1% share of the savings from buyers.

Khaled, however, struck a more sceptical tone. "The buyers are pocketing the entire benefit of the lower rates without offering us any concessions," he said.

For now, Bangladesh's garment sector finds itself caught between policy unpredictability in Washington and pricing pressure from its largest export market—waiting for clarity that may not come soon.

China is making a "full assessment" of the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling and urged Washington to lift "relevant unilateral tariff measures" on its trading partners, the Chinese commerce ministry said in a statement on Monday.

The comments came days after the highest US court dealt President Donald Trump a stinging defeat by striking down many of the tariffs he has used in a global trade war, including some against rival China.

Within hours of the ruling, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday, which he raised to 15% on Saturday.

"US unilateral tariffs ... violate international trade rules and US domestic law, and are not in the interests of any party," the Chinese ministry added.

The ministry said it noticed the US planned to maintain tariffs on trading partners through alternative means including trade investigations.

"China will continue to pay close attention to this and firmly safeguard its interests," the ministry said.

Trump will travel to China from 31 March to 2 April for a highly anticipated meeting between the leaders of the world's two biggest economies.

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 am EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday, more than three days after the US Supreme Court declared the duties illegal.

CBP said in a message to shippers on its Cargo Systems Messaging Service that it will de-activate all tariff codes associated with President Donald Trump's prior IEEPA-related orders as of Tuesday.

The IEEPA tariff collection halt coincides with Trump's imposition of a new, 15% global tariff under a different legal authority to replace the ones struck down by the Supreme Court on Friday.

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower OECD stocks, even as it continued to assume no Iran-related supply disruption and maintained its view of a surplus this year.

For the year, it now expects Brent to average $64 a barrel, up from $56 previously, and WTI to average $60, up from $52.

Oil prices fell about 1 percent on Monday as the US and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict.

Brent crude futures were trading around $71 a barrel at 0641 GMT, while US WTI crude futures were at $65.75 a barrel.

In a note dated Sunday, Goldman said its $60 Brent price forecast reflected a gradual fading of a $6 risk premium estimate assuming that geopolitical tensions ease and a $5 decline in the fair value price on rising stocks in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The bank maintained its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace.

The bank said its 2026 surplus reflects offsetting 0.2 million bpd downgrades to supply and demand on slightly softer growth in Asia.

The bank downgraded its 2026 supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to realized production misses, while it upgraded supply expectations for the Americas and in core Opec countries with spare capacity.

The bank said it expects Opec+ to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter of 2026, given that OECD inventories have not built up.

Goldman, however, expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI for the fourth quarter of 2026 if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term.

It expects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61, respectively, in 2027 and to rise to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on the back of solid demand and slowing supply growth.

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday, more than three days after the US Supreme Court declared the duties illegal.

The agency said in a message to shippers on its Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) that it will de-activate all tariff codes associated with President Donald Trump’s prior IEEPA-related orders as of Tuesday.

The IEEPA tariff collection halt coincides with Trump’s imposition of a new, 15 percent global tariff under a different legal authority to replace the ones struck down by the Supreme Court on Friday.

CBP gave no reason why it was continuing to collect the tariffs at ports of entry days after the Supreme Court’s ruling, and its message offered no information about possible refunds for importers.

The message noted that the collection halt does not affect any other tariffs imposed by Trump, including those under the Section 232 national security statute and the Section 301 unfair trade practices statute.

“CBP will provide additional guidance to the trade community through CSMS messages as appropriate,” the agency said.

Reuters reported on Friday that the Supreme Court decision made more than $175 billion in US Treasury revenue generated by the IEEPA tariffs subject to potential refunds, based on an estimate by Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists. Their estimate from a ground-up forecasting model showed that IEEPA-based tariffs were generating more than $500 million per day in gross revenue.

Gold climbed to a three-week high on Monday as uncertainty stoked by the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down a vast swathe of President Donald Trump's tariffs pressured the dollar and pushed investors to the safety of bullion.

Spot gold climbed 1.1 percent to $5,158.29 per ounce by 0558 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since January 30. US gold futures for April delivery were up 2 percent at $5,180.40.

"The court's tariff ruling has, aside from earning the ire of the US president, added another layer of uncertainty to global markets, with traders again turning to gold as a defensive play," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing the Republican president a stinging defeat in a landmark ruling on Friday with major implications for the global economy.

After the court ruling, Trump said he would raise a temporary tariff from 10 percent to 15 percent on US imports from all countries.

"Whether gold can claw its way back above $5,400 in the near-term may rest on how long tariff uncertainty lingers and whether the US engages in military action against Iran," Waterer said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in talks with the US in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a US attack.

Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that underlying US inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates before June.

Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) has called on the newly elected government to implement a zero-tolerance policy against widespread extortion and public sector corruption to revive the country's "ailing economy".

Presenting the chamber's annual action plan today (23 February), titled "Road to Revival", DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed revealed that extortion at factory levels and within supply chains has increased by 20% to 50% in some areas following the ouster of the Awami League government through 2024 July Uprising.

Addressing a press conference at the DCCI auditorium, he warned that economic progress would remain a "dream" unless these criminal activities are suppressed "overnight with a heavy hand".

He also took aim at a trade deal regarding the reciprocal tariffs signed by the interim government with the United States under a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA).

Terming the deal a threat to economic sovereignty, the DCCI chief claimed it binds Bangladesh to purchase $15 billion worth of LNG from the US over 15 years and restricts its ability to offer subsidies.

"Our RMG sector contributes 13% to the GDP, and trade with the US is less than 2% of our GDP. To secure a 1% tariff reduction, we cannot compromise our broader economic interests or our relationships with other major trading partners," he stated, urging the incumbent government to strategically renegotiate the agreement.

On the logistics and energy fronts, the DCCI demanded an immediate reversal of the 41% hike in Chattogram Port service tariffs and called for offshore gas exploration to bridge a daily gas supply gap of 925 MMSCFD.

While the chamber welcomed the government's target to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 8%, it insisted on 100% automation of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to prevent harassment.

The DCCI also lauded the government's recent formal request to the United Nations to defer Bangladesh's LDC graduation by at least three years, citing the economic setbacks from the pandemic and recent political transitions.

Expressing deep concern over the financial sector, Taskeen noted that private sector credit growth plummeted to a 22-year low of 6.49% in FY2024-25.

He also criticised the central bank for shortening the loan classification grace period from nine months to three months. He argued that the move artificially inflated non-performing loans (NPLs) to Tk6.44 trillion, representing 36% of total loans.

With lending rates soaring to 16-17%, the DCCI chief called for a reduction in the policy rate and the introduction of subsidised credit lines for genuine businesses.

He argued that the move is penalising genuine businesses that are suffering from working capital shortages due to massive currency devaluation and high borrowing costs.

"While wilful defaulters must face strict punishment, genuine SMEs and businesses need breathing room. We urge the government to reconsider the loan classification rules, reduce the policy rate, and introduce subsidised credit lines to lower borrowing costs," Taskeen said.

Bangladesh’s agent banking sector is defying conventional trends, recording strong deposit growth even as the number of agents and service outlets declines.

According to the latest report from Bangladesh Bank, total deposits in agent banking reached Tk 49,356 crore at the end of 2025, up 18 percent from Tk 41,785 crore in December 2024. This represents a net increase of Tk 7,571 crore.

The growth comes amid a contraction in the sector’s physical infrastructure.

Agent banking outlets fell from 21,248 in 2024 to 20,501 in 2025, a reduction of 747 service points. Active agents also declined from 16,019 to 15,328 over the same period.

Experts attribute the drop in outlets largely to Agrani Bank’s suspension of certain agent banking operations.

“While the closure of some networks impacted the numbers, the surge in deposits is a positive sign,” said Arfan Ali, a veteran banker and former Managing Director, highlighting renewed public confidence in the formal banking system.

Key Performance Indicators (2025 vs 2024):

Deposits: Tk 49,356 crore, up 18%
Loan Disbursement: Tk 11,755 crore, up 16%
Active Accounts: ~2.5 crore
Transaction Volume: 2.62 crore in Oct-Dec 2025, down 3% from 2.70 crore
Top Banks by Agent Banking Deposits:

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC: Tk 21,530 crore (Market Leader)
Dutch-Bangla Bank: Tk 6,887 crore
Bank Asia: Tk 6,515 crore
Al-Arafah Islami Bank: Tk 3,869 crore
BRAC Bank: Tk 2,897 crore
Agent banking remains a low-cost avenue for banks to reach rural markets, allowing them to mobilize small savings and channel funds into corporate loans.

Around 30 public and private banks currently offer services including cash deposits, loan processing, utility bill payments, and remittance disbursement.

Despite a slight decline in transaction numbers, the sector’s loan accounts grew to over 2.39 lakh, signalling its rising importance as a source of credit for small-scale borrowers and rural entrepreneurs.

Around Tk72 crore worth of shares of Olympic Industries changed hands in the block market of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) yesterday, signalling a strategic transaction involving the company's sponsor director.

A total of 50 lakh shares were traded in the block market at Tk144 per share during the session. In contrast, the stock closed at Tk163.10 apiece in the public market, marking a 2% increase from the previous trading day.

In the block market, transactions are executed between pre-arranged buyers and sellers at mutually agreed prices. Shares worth below Tk5 lakh are not permitted in this segment, and the standard 10% upper and lower circuit breaker limits apply.

Market insiders said the block trade was executed by the company's chairman and sponsor director, Aziz Mohammad Bhai, as part of his earlier plan to increase his stake. The shares were reportedly purchased from foreign investors.

Earlier on 19 February, Aziz Mohammad Bhai disclosed his intention to buy one crore shares of Olympic Industries through the block market within the next 30 working days at the prevailing market price.

Following that declaration, Olympic Industries' share price rose by 7% on the Dhaka bourse, reflecting a positive response from investors.

Analysts said such moves by sponsor directors are generally perceived as a sign of confidence in a company's fundamentals and long-term prospects.

At present, foreign investors hold 32.83% of the company's shares, while institutional investors own 21.90%. The general public holds 12.89%, and the remaining shares are held by sponsors and directors.

The latest acquisition is expected to further increase the sponsor-director shareholding, though details of his previous stake were not disclosed.

Olympic Industries Limited is the country's largest branded biscuit manufacturer and a leading fast-moving consumer goods company, producing a wide range of biscuits, confectionery, and bakery products for both domestic and export markets.

For the July–December period of 2025, the company reported revenue of Tk1,548 crore, up from Tk1,490 crore in the same period a year earlier. Earnings per share stood at Tk5.99, compared to Tk5.82 previously, while net asset value per share reached Tk65.34 as of December 2025.

The commerce ministry has convened a stakeholder consultation for tomorrow, bringing together economists, trade analysts, business leaders and senior officials from across the government to assess its reciprocal trade deal with the United States and determine the next steps.

The meeting is expected to be the first in a series of stakeholder consultations as Dhaka prepares to re-engage Washington.

“We will hold more meetings with different stakeholders and prepare for the next course of action with the US,” Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Daily Star over the phone, confirming tomorrow’s meeting.

The urgency stems from a ruling on February 20 in which the US Supreme Court struck down a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump using an emergency law. The court ruled that the president’s actions were illegal as he did not take congressional approval before imposing the tariffs.

Officials in Dhaka are assessing whether the trade deal with the US, signed on February 9 to reduce the tariff rate, has been invalidated following the court’s ruling. The government is yet to formally write to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to clarify the agreement’s status.

Under the deal, Dhaka had pledged to buy roughly $3.5 billion worth of American agricultural goods -- wheat, soy, cotton and corn -- along with $15 billion in energy products over 15 years and approximately 14 Boeing aircraft.

“It is not clear yet whether Bangladesh will have to import the goods it committed to buy,” the commerce secretary said.

In exchange, Washington agreed to cut its reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi goods to 19 percent, down from the higher rates imposed earlier.

However, following the court’s ruling, President Trump announced a 15 percent universal tariff applicable to all countries, a figure he had already nudged up from an initial 10 percent.

That blanket rate complicates Dhaka’s predicament considerably.

If the 15 percent tariff applies uniformly to all countries, Bangladesh will not rush into negotiations as there would be no relative disadvantage, Secretary Rahman said.

Yet there is a countervailing logic. The government believes that the Trump administration may reserve tariff concessions for countries that have demonstrated a willingness to engage commercially with the US.

“There is a perception that the Trump administration may lower the 15 percent universal tariff rate for the countries which have engagement with the US,” the commerce secretary added.

Revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) grew 13 percent year-on-year to Tk 2.24 lakh crore in the July-January period of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), driven largely by strong VAT receipts from domestic trade and economic activity.

Yet, the country’s largest tax collector missed its target by 27 percent, a shortfall of Tk 60,110 crore, for the period, according to provisional data.

The immediate-past interim government in late November revised NBR’s full-year revenue target to Tk 5.54 lakh crore after a strong first quarter, up from Tk 4.99 lakh crore.

To meet the full-year target, the board would need to collect Tk 3.30 lakh crore in just the remaining five months of the fiscal year, which economists say is an unrealistic goal.

Persistent inflation, sluggish implementation of development projects, and a broader economic slowdown make such a surge virtually impossible.

According to a paper by Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), the total revenue shortfall for FY26 will exceed Tk 1 lakh crore, much like what was recorded in FY25.

“Bangladesh is now in a position where it cannot meet recurrent operating expenditure with domestic revenue mobilisation,” Khan said while presenting a paper at a Citizen’s Platform for SDGs briefing last week.

He described the country as facing “diminishing fiscal space,” with borrowing for debt repayment rising significantly and non-development expenditure squeezing policy room further.

“The budget for FY2026 has also made some lofty fiscal framework targets,” he said.

Additional pressure is mounting from election-related costs and the need to inject capital into distressed financial institutions.

A recourse to bank borrowing reflects this tightening.

Net borrowing from the banking sector by crossed Tk 48,800 crore by January 25, nearly five times the Tk 10,558 crore borrowed in nearly the same period a year earlier, according to Bangladesh Bank provisional data.

Within the July–January tax receipts, VAT (value-added tax) from domestic activity was the largest contributor at 38 percent of total collection, rising 16.45 percent year on year to Tk 85,769 crore.

Direct taxes – income and corporate – accounted for 33.5 percent, climbing 13 percent to Tk 75,055 crore. Import tariffs grew more modestly, up 8 percent to Tk 62,813 crore.

Overall receipts increased at a faster pace in the July-January period of FY26 than a year ago, when the tax administration logged only 2 percent growth.

Growth in January 2026 alone, however, slowed sharply to just 3.21 percent compared to the same month last year.