The per capita income in Bangladesh rose by 1 percent year-on-year to $2,769 in the 2024-25 fiscal year, according to final data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

The per capita income was $2,738 in 2023–24.

In local currency, the figure stood at Tk 334,511 in 2024-25, up from Tk 304,102 in the previous year.

In FY25, the size of the Bangladesh economy increased to $456 billion from $450 billion a year earlier, although it was lower than the earlier estimate of $462 billion.

Bangladesh’s economy grew 3.49 percent in the fiscal year 2024–25, the slowest expansion in at least three years, owing to weaker performances in the agriculture and services sectors.

The final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the final value of goods and services produced in an economy in a certain period, is lower than the provisional estimate of 3.97 percent estimated earlier by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The national statistical agency released the final calculation of GDP today, saying that only the industrial sector grew at a faster pace in the fiscal year 2024–25 than in the previous year.

Factory output increased by 3.71 percent in FY25, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous year.

Agriculture, the second-biggest employing sector, recorded 2.42 percent growth in FY25, down from 3.30 percent a year earlier.

The services sector, the biggest contributor to GDP, expanded by 4.35 percent in the last fiscal year, slower than the 5.09 percent recorded in FY24.

In FY24, the economy grew 4.22 percent, said the BBS.

For the current fiscal year 2025–26, sluggish economic growth is projected to continue, according to forecasts by multilateral agencies such as the International Monetary Fund.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has urged the government to halt new fossil fuel-based power projects, revise what it called inflated demand projections and bolster parliamentary oversight to put Bangladesh's power and energy sector on a fiscally sustainable and climate-aligned path.

CPD said Bangladesh's power and energy sector is at risk of fiscal stress, stranded assets and stalled renewable energy transition due to overestimated demand projections, fossil fuel lock-in and weak regulatory transparency.

Presenting a research paper titled 'New Government's Priorities in Addressing Socio-economic Challenges: Introducing Knowledge-based Decision Making in the Executive and Legislative Process' at CPD's Dhanmondi office today (28 February), CPD Research Director Khondaker Golam Moazzem outlined a series of structural weaknesses in the sector and recommended urgent reforms within the first 180 days of the new government.

The study identified 'Power and Energy: Reviving for Energy Transition' as the seventh priority sector and found that procedural transparency, accountability, and implementation efficiency remain the weakest pillars of decision-making in this sector.

CPD noted that existing master plans project electricity demand to reach 40-50 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, while independent estimates suggest a more realistic requirement of around 30 GW.

The study warned that inflated GDP-demand linkages, rather than actual industrial consumption data, have been used to justify aggressive expansion targets.

This could lead to massive surplus capacity that would be 'difficult to undo', increasing fiscal burdens through long-term contractual obligations.

Without structural reforms and parliamentary oversight, the sector risks repeating past mistakes of overcapacity, high tariffs and fiscal stress
Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director, CPD

Spatial planning mismatch was also highlighted, with Dhaka receiving disproportionately high projections compared to emerging industrial hubs such as Chattogram and Sylhet.

CPD recommended that Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) and Power Cell adopt rigorous econometric forecasting methods and subject revised projections to independent validation and parliamentary review.

The report underscored the structural burden of capacity payments to independent power producers (IPPs), even for idle plants. Despite recent tariff hikes reaching Tk 8.95 per unit in 2024 — fiscal stress persists.

According to the study, plant-by-plant payment details and the rationale behind tariff adjustments lack transparency, while public hearings by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (Berc) have often been bypassed.
Banking sector remains most fragile area of Bangladesh's economy: CPD

CPD recommended introducing a 'No Electricity, No Pay' clause in future Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to eliminate unconditional capacity charges. It also called for renegotiation of rigid 'take-or-pay' contracts, though acknowledging the legal complexity involved.

The think tank warned of growing dependence on imported LNG and coal, raising concerns about stranded assets and fiscal instability.

It said long-term price volatility impacts are systematically downplayed and that insufficient assessment has been conducted regarding risks associated with new LNG terminals and coal-based infrastructure.

CPD proposed adopting a clear 'No New Fossil Fuel-Based Power Generation' policy and urged reassessment of planned coal projects, including Matarbari Phase 2, through parliamentary debate to ensure fiscal and climate accountability.

The study also called for scaling up regional power trading with Nepal and Bhutan to import hydropower and balance solar intermittency.

While the interim government approved the Renewable Energy Policy 2025, CPD observed that grid absorption capacity for variable renewable energy (VRE) remains capped at 20%, and smart grid implementation has been deferred to 2040-2050.
Next govt must go for swift reforms to stabilise economy: CPD

Private renewable energy developers face bureaucratic hurdles in securing grid interconnection approvals, the report said.

CPD recommended that Power Grid Bangladesh (PGB) conduct a technical grid stress test to determine upgrades required to absorb at least 30% renewable energy by 2030.

It also proposed establishing an Independent System Operator (ISO) to separate grid management from BPDB and ensure institutional neutrality.

A 'Resource-to-Grid Data Hub' integrating real-time renewable energy potential mapping across districts should be developed under parliamentary monitoring, the study added.

In the primary energy segment, CPD highlighted a persistent daily gas shortage of around 1,200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), with total demand at 3,800 mmcfd against supply of just over 2,600 mmcfd, including LNG imports.
CPD's Fahmida calls for 'comprehensive economic reforms'

The report argued that increasing LNG imports alone would deepen financial burdens and recommended prioritising domestic gas exploration instead.

It stressed that overemphasis on new LNG infrastructure and domestic coal exploration reflects weaknesses in evidence-based analysis and stakeholder engagement.

A central theme of the CPD study is embedding knowledge-based decision-making in both executive and legislative processes.

The report called on the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Power and Energy to review all major generation, fuel mix and procurement decisions to ensure statutory compliance and transparency.

It noted that suspension of the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provision) Act 2010 by the interim government is a positive step toward restoring competitive procurement and judicial oversight.
Govt to renegotiate Hasina-era power deals, cites fiscal stress

CPD, however, warned that without institutional restructuring, real-time data transparency and structured parliamentary scrutiny, reform efforts may remain partial.

Immediate and long-term priorities

For the next 180 days, CPD recommended:

No approval of new fossil fuel-based power plants
Independent validation of revised demand projections
Introduction of "No Electricity, No Pay" clauses in future contracts
Engagement with export-oriented industries in designing a National Solar Rooftop Programme
Institutionalising parliamentary review of all major sectoral decisions

Beyond 180 days, the study proposed grid modernisation, establishment of an Independent System Operator, zonal energy audits, smart grid pilots, and legislative-backed accountability frameworks.

Moazzem said the success of the new government would depend on its ability to align fiscal prudence, climate commitments and energy security through transparent, evidence-driven policymaking.

"Without structural reforms and parliamentary oversight, the sector risks repeating past mistakes of overcapacity, high tariffs and fiscal stress," Moazzem added.

Stocks maintained strong upward momentum today (26 February) as trading activity surged at the Dhaka bourse following the appointment of a new governor at Bangladesh Bank, with turnover soaring 68%.

The benchmark DSEX of the Dhaka Stock Exchange advanced 45 points, or 0.81%, to close at 5,600, regaining the key psychological level after recent volatility. The blue-chip DS30 index rose 17 points, also 0.81%, to finish at 2,169.

Market breadth remained firmly positive, as 239 issues advanced, 93 declined and 59 remained unchanged, reflecting broad-based buying.

Turnover climbed sharply to Tk947 crore, signalling renewed investor participation and improved liquidity. Market capitalisation also increased, supported by gains in large-cap stocks.

Major contributors to the ryesally included Islami Bank Bangladesh, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, City Bank, Eastern Bank and Robi Axiata, whose price appreciation lifted the indices.

Mostaqur Rahman FCMA was appointed governor of Bangladesh Bank for a four-year term on Wednesday, replacing Ahsan H Mansur.

Market observers noted that Mostaqur's prior experience as a board member of the Chittagong Stock Exchange between 1998 and 2000 underscores his familiarity with the capital market.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the DSE and managing director of BLI Securities Limited, told The Business Standard that the day's rally and transaction growth had no direct correlation with the governor's appointment.

However, he voiced optimism about the new governor's integrity and longstanding engagement with national economic affairs, suggesting such factors could bolster investor confidence.

He also said the formation of a new government by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party has generated expectations of administrative changes across key institutions.

Speculation regarding potential leadership changes at the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission may also be shaping investor sentiment, he added.

According to EBL Securities' daily market review, the capital market extended its recovery from a brief correction phase, driven by broad-based buying.

While mid-session profit-taking briefly slowed the rally, renewed buying interest in the latter half pushed the indices higher by the close.

Sector-wise, banking stocks dominated turnover with a 22% share, followed by pharmaceuticals (18.7%) and telecom (9.1%). All sectors ended in positive territory, led by ceramic (up 3.1%), IT (2.3%) and travel (2.3%).

City Bank, Robi, Orion Infusion, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag and BRAC Bank topped the turnover chart.

Several loss-making firms featured among the gainers, including Familytex, BIFC, Union Capital and ICB Islamic Bank, each posting the maximum 10% rise.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange PLC also closed higher. The CSCX index gained 69 points to 9,587, while the CASPI advanced 128 points to 15,597.

Turnover at the port city bourse stood at Tk19.54 crore, reflecting positive sentiment across both trading floors.

Gold prices edged up on Thursday as uncertainty over US tariff policy boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal, while investors awaited further details on US-Iran talks later in the day.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $5,190.01 per ounce, as of 0816 GMT. Bullion had hit a more-than-three-week high on Tuesday.

US gold futures for April delivery were down 0.4 percent at $5,206.80.

The US dollar eased, making dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

“Iran-US persisting tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy with (President Donald) Trump’s tariffs are a bullish catalyst,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at banking group Swissquote.

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of nuclear talks later in the day in Geneva.

Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.

Non-yielding gold is seen as a safe store of value during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The US tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15 percent or higher from the newly imposed 10 percent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details.

Gold prices scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29 and were up 20 percent so far this year.

“The global gold rush does not seem to be over... Overall the sentiment remains positive with strong buys coming from Asia and from Central Banks,” De Casa said.

On the data front, investors await the weekly US jobless claims data, due later in the day.

The market share of Bangladesh in the European Union’s (EU) apparel market increased to 21.57 percent in 2025 from 20.78 percent in 2024 thanks to the rising demand for locally made apparel items in the EU.

In 2025, Bangladesh retained its position as the second-largest garment supplier to the EU, shipping apparel worth 19.41 billion euros, up from 18.31 billion euros in 2024, according to Eurostat data.

China, the largest garment exporter, held a 29.54 percent market share by exporting apparel worth 26.58 billion euros to the EU in 2025, Eurostat also reported. In 2025, the EU imported garment items worth 89.99 billion euros in total.

Turkey was the third-largest garment exporter to the EU in 2025, while India ranked fourth.

Crude oil prices jumped Friday as worries about a possible US attack on Iran rose while Wall Street stocks slid amid anxiety over artificial intelligence and data showing an uptick in US inflation.

Crude prices jumped more than three percent at one point as optimism faded following Thursday talks between the two nations that were seen as a last-ditch bid to avert war.

"With the US having called on its citizens to leave Israel and Iran, the threat of an attack on the Islamic Republic has dramatically risen, pushing the oil price to a seven-month high," said analyst Axel Rudolph at investing and trading platform IG.

The benchmark international contract, Brent, briefly rose over $73 per barrel before finishing at $72.48, up 2.5 percent.

Wall Street's main stock indices fell, with tech stocks taking a hit.

Financial services firm Block's announcement that it would slash its workforce by nearly half and rely heavily on AI to operate more efficiently sparked fresh concerns about the disruptive nature of the technology.

Stock markets soared to fresh heights last year thanks to investors piling into stocks of tech firms which are piling massive amounts of money into developing and deploying AI.

But the march higher has not been steady in recent months as concern about artificial intelligence disrupting industries occasionally triggers sudden drops in markets.

Investors have also been occasionally seized by concerns that the share prices of tech giants have risen too high and that AI may not be profitable.

"AI, the trade that drove the market higher last year, is weighing on the market this year," said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. "There's a lot of disruption and fear spreading, because we don't know how AI will impact the market."

Sarhan also pointed to Friday's report on US producer prices as a driver of negative sentiment. The index rose a greater than expected 0.5 percent in January, adding to worries the Federal Reserve could refrain from additional interest rate cuts.

Financial stocks were under pressure on lingering fears about weakness in the private credit market. Two of Friday's biggest losers in the Dow were Goldman Sachs, down 7.5 percent, and JPMorgan Chase, down 1.9 percent.

But shares of Paramount Skydance surged more than 20 percent as it stood poised to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix ended its pursuit of the media giant in a takeover battle.

Netflix, which will garner a $2.8 billion breakup fee after being outbid, rose 13.8 percent.

In Europe, the jump in oil and metals prices helped London's FTSE 100 stock index buck the trend, rising to a fresh record high as energy and resources stocks rose.

Frankfurt ended the day flat and Paris fell.

The country's private sector credit growth plummeted to an all-time low of 6.03% in January, as prolonged political instability and a high-interest-rate regime forced businesses to stall expansion plans and led banks to adopt a highly cautious lending stance.

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bank, credit growth edged down from 6.1% in December, continuing a sharp decline from the 10.13% recorded in July 2024.

Although a brief spike to 6.58% occurred in November, analysts attribute this to loan restructuring ahead of the 12 February national election rather than genuine new investment in productive sectors.

In its monetary policy statement for January-June 2026, the central bank attributed the slowdown to tight monetary conditions, rising government borrowing to finance the budget deficit and subdued demand for loans amid continued uncertainty surrounding new investment decisions.

The decline has been steady over recent months, with growth recorded at 6.29% in September, 6.35% in August, 6.52% in July, 6.40% in June, 7.17% in May and 7.5% in April. In contrast, private sector credit growth stood at 10.13% in July 2024 before falling sharply following the political transition in August that year.

Economists say prolonged political uncertainty, weak business confidence and structural weaknesses in banks have discouraged investment, prompting many businesses to postpone expansion plans despite the BNP securing a landslide victory in the February election.

Newly appointed central bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has indicated that policy support will be introduced to revive private sector lending and restore economic momentum.

On his first day in office, he said lending rates would be gradually reduced to encourage investment and that reopening closed factories and business establishments would be essential to revitalise economic activity – signalling a possible shift away from the prolonged contractionary monetary stance.

Bankers, however, say high borrowing costs are only part of the challenge. Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, told TBS that banks are currently extending loans at even around 11% interest while paying similar rates on deposits, leaving minimal margins.

He noted that although high lending rates remain a constraint, investors prioritise reliable infrastructure – including gas, electricity and port facilities – before financing considerations.

Persistent energy shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, he said, have prevented both existing businesses from expanding and new investors from entering the market.

A major factor behind the credit slowdown has been increased government borrowing from banks. During July-December of the 2025-26 fiscal year, net credit to the government reached Tk50,782 crore, equivalent to 43% of the revised annual target of Tk1.18 lakh crore.

Net government borrowing from the banking system rose 32.8% by December 2025, effectively crowding out private borrowers in an already tight liquidity environment.

Banks are simultaneously struggling with soaring non-performing loans, which climbed to a record Tk6.44 lakh crore at the end of September 2025 – roughly one-third of total outstanding loans.

Elevated default levels have weakened bank capital positions, increased provisioning requirements and made lenders more cautious in approving new credit.

Liquidity pressures and slow deposit growth have further constrained lending capacity. In an effort to curb inflation, the central bank earlier raised its policy rate to 10%, pushing commercial lending rates close to 15% and discouraging businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, from taking fresh loans.

The effects of weak credit expansion are increasingly visible across the economy. Imports of capital machinery have declined, signalling slower industrial growth, while reduced investment has dampened money circulation. Many factories are operating below capacity, consumer demand remains subdued and private sector job creation has slowed.

The central bank had set a target of 9.8% private sector credit growth for July-December 2025, but actual performance fell significantly short.

Experts warned that if lending growth fails to recover, industrial output could weaken further, private investment may remain stagnant and employment recovery could face prolonged delays.

Escalating hostilities involving Iran, the United States and Israel have triggered fresh concerns over Bangladesh's energy security, with economists and business leaders warning of potential fuel supply disruptions and sharp spikes in global energy prices.

Analysts said the latest US strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran's retaliatory attacks on American military bases across the Middle East could disrupt shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Bangladesh's principal suppliers — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

If the confrontation escalates or becomes prolonged, they cautioned, the economic fallout for Bangladesh could surpass the shock experienced during the Russia-Ukraine War, exposing the country to risks in fuel supply stability, foreign exchange reserves and inflation management.

Particular anxiety centres on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 40% of global oil and gas shipments pass. Bangladesh's imports of LNG, LPG and crude oil transit this route, meaning any disruption could immediately affect domestic energy availability.

Markets react to tensions

Energy markets have already reacted to rising tensions. Global oil prices increased by about 2% amid fears of military escalation, while international forecasts suggest crude prices could climb to $80 per barrel or higher, with some projections warning of prices reaching $110 if the conflict intensifies.

Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of East Coast Group, told TBS that retaliatory strikes across the Middle East could halt fuel loading operations at regional refineries, effectively suspending supplies of oil, gas, LNG and LPG.

He noted that Bangladesh lacks the capacity to refine crude oil sourced from alternative producers, making it dependent on Middle Eastern suppliers. In the event of prolonged disruption, the country may be forced to import refined fuel from the spot market at significantly higher prices, he warned.

Azam added that LNG shipments from Qatar could also face interruption following missile attacks in the region, warning that Bangladesh, which imports around 12 to 13 LNG cargoes monthly, could face serious economic consequences.

He urged the government to immediately secure alternative supply arrangements, including agreements with global suppliers such as Malaysia's Petronas, and increase imports of refined petroleum products from international markets.

Risks to industry and inflation

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said rising fuel prices would increase electricity generation costs and worsen existing gas and power shortages, further disrupting industrial production.

Higher energy costs, he warned, would raise the cost of doing business, weaken export competitiveness and potentially fuel inflationary pressures that could trigger labour unrest across industrial sectors.

Centre for Policy Dialogue Executive Director Fahmida Khatun said supply disruptions would increase import costs and place additional strain on Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves.

She stressed the urgency of identifying alternative fuel sources, noting that global commodity prices – including edible oil, sugar, wheat and fertiliser – could also rise as a result of the conflict.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka Office, warned that continued conflict could destabilise global commodity markets, disrupt international shipping and logistics networks and heighten investment uncertainty.

He warned that Bangladesh could face three major risks – volatility in global commodity markets, disruptions to international trade and logistics, and heightened uncertainty discouraging investment decisions.

Energy expert Professor Shamsul Alam said higher global fuel prices would inevitably increase production costs across all sectors, pushing up commodity prices and placing additional pressure on consumers.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has urged the newly elected government to immediately scrap the reciprocal trade agreement signed with the United States by the previous interim administration, terming it grossly discriminatory and detrimental to Bangladesh's economic sovereignty.

The think tank also called for a complete departure from the traditional business as usual bureaucratic approach, unveiling a comprehensive 13-sector policy roadmap to guide the government's executive and legislative decisions over the first 180 days and the next five years.

The recommendations were presented today (28 February) at a media briefing titled "New government's economic and social sector policy and administrative decisions: 180 days and beyond," held at the CPD office in Dhaka.

CPD research director Khondaker Golam Moazzem presented the extensive analysis, emphasising that the new administration must adopt knowledge-based decision-making and deeply decentralise power to overcome systemic inefficiencies.

Taking a firm stance on recent international negotiations, the CPD warned that the US trade agreement severely jeopardises Bangladesh's smooth transition strategy (STS) for LDC graduation.

According to the think tank, the agreement's clauses completely restrict Bangladesh's independence in terms of trade and investment with third countries. It forces Bangladesh to comply with US border measures and restricts the imposition of digital service taxes.

The CPD strongly advised the government to withdraw from this agreement before notifications are exchanged and also urged a review of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan, as it controversially allows duty-free imports of LNG, thereby delaying the country's renewable energy transition.

Beyond trade, the CPD's analysis spanned critical macroeconomic areas, including resource mobilisation, the business environment, and foreign direct investment (FDI). With the country's tax-to-GDP ratio plunging to a South Asian low of 6.8%, the think tank recommended forming a tax ombudsman, consolidating the current eight VAT slabs into a three-tier structure, and eliminating tax incentives for high-emission fossil fuel power producers.

To attract FDI and ease the cost of doing business, CPD proposed enacting a Single Digital Interface Act to legally bind ministries to integrate their databases. They also suggested translating the government's pledges of 48-hour company registration and 30-day profit repatriation into enforceable legal standards, alongside establishing specialised commercial courts for rapid dispute resolution.

Turning to the power and energy sector, the CPD heavily criticised the government's ambitious target to generate 35 GW of electricity by 2030.

"There is no need to fix the BNP's distant target of 35 gigawatts for 2030. Because within that target, we again see an indication of promoting fossil fuels. Therefore, we believe that instead of sticking to the 35-gigawatt target, it would be better to move towards a more realistic goal – as CPD had suggested – that reaching 30 gigawatts by 2040 would be sufficient. We think the new government should proceed with such a target in mind," said Dr Golam Moazzem.

Instead of expanding domestic coal extraction and building new inland LNG terminals, the government was advised to adopt a strict 'no new fossil fuel-based power generation' policy.

The think tank recommended shifting focus toward domestic gas exploration through Bapex, expanding the national rooftop solar programme, and inserting 'No Electricity, No Pay' clauses in all future power purchase agreements to eliminate the heavy burden of unconditional capacity charges.

On the social front, the CPD addressed pressing issues surrounding labor rights, child labour, and international migration.

CPD calls for tax justice, FDI reform

Addressing the alarming rise in child labour, which currently traps 3.5 million children, Golam Moazzem proposed utilising the newly planned Family Card scheme to provide conditional cash transfers to vulnerable households, strictly tied to withdrawing their children from hazardous work and sending them back to school.

To protect outbound migrant workers from rampant extortion, the government was urged to dismantle entrenched recruitment syndicates, mandate digital financial transactions for all recruitment fees, and transform Technical Training Centres (TTCs) into dedicated overseas placement hubs aligned with global market demands.

Golam Moazzem said true accountability cannot be achieved if the government operates solely on the "one leg" of the executive branch. He strongly advocated for parliamentary reforms.

CPD recommended ensuring that opposition MPs lead key parliamentary standing committees, such as the Public Accounts Committee, and reforming the Prime Minister's Question Time to be ballot-based rather than executive-controlled.

Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) today (28 February) urged major reforms in tax collection, business climate, trade deals and foreign investment management, warning that without evidence-based decisions and strong accountability, Bangladesh's post-election economic transition could be at risk.

CPD said Bangladesh must urgently overhaul its revenue system, ease the cost of doing business, review recently signed trade agreements and strengthen foreign direct investment (FDI) facilitation to ensure sustainable growth and smooth graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status.

Presenting the study titled 'New Government's Priorities in Addressing Socio-economic Challenges: Introducing Knowledge-based Decision Making in the Executive and Legislative Process' at its Dhanmondi office, CPD Research Director Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem highlighted structural weaknesses in Sections 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the report covering revenue mobilisation, business environment, trade policy and FDI.

Tax-GDP Ratio

CPD said Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen to approximately 6.8%, the lowest in South Asia, significantly weakening fiscal capacity at a time of rising development needs.

The newly elected government has pledged to raise the ratio to 10% in the medium term and 15% by 2035. But CPD cautioned that revenue sustainability would remain uncertain without prioritising tax justice and plugging systemic leakages.

The study identified 'leaking revenue' as the weakest area across all decision-making indicators.

To address regressivity and inefficiency, CPD recommended consolidating the current eight VAT slabs into a simplified three-tier structure: standard, reduced and zero rates, with a long-term transition toward a two-tier system.

It also proposed eliminating tax exemptions for non-essential services, including exclusive clubs and stock market-related entities, and phasing out tax cut incentives for fossil fuel-based power producers.

Mandatory digital tax return submission, establishment of a digital tax dispute resolution system within 30–45 days and performance-based corporate tax incentives were among the key recommendations.

CPD further suggested linking revenue gains from VAT rationalisation to direct transfers for low-income households instead of broad reduced-rate exemptions.

Business Environment

The report noted that Bangladesh's business environment continues to suffer from transport-logistics bottlenecks, unreliable utilities, regulatory complexity, corruption, weak human capital alignment and fragile banking systems.

It warned that corruption in administrative processes remains the most severe constraint to ensuring an enabling business environment.

Despite digital reforms such as the partial launch of "BanglaBiz" and activation of the Bangladesh Single Window system, CPD found that transparency and accountability remain weak.

The study recommended full backend digital integration across agencies under a unified document management framework to eliminate duplication of business licensing requirements.

It also called for establishing both a Tax Ombudsman and a Banking Ombudsman to address grievances and strengthen institutional accountability.

In the financial sector, CPD flagged high non-performing loans (NPLs) and limited SME access to financing as major barriers.

Although reforms such as the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025 and Deposit Protection Ordinance 2025 were introduced, the think tank said credit allocation decisions lack transparency and efficient implementation.

It urged Bangladesh Bank to innovate credit assessment models, develop inclusive SME financing options with lower collateral requirements and exercise caution in interest rate reduction to avoid inflationary pressures.

US-Bangladesh Trade Agreement

CPD raised serious concerns over the recently signed "Agreement on Reciprocal Trade" between Bangladesh and the United States, saying several clauses may restrict Bangladesh's trade policy autonomy.

The study alleged that the agreement includes discriminatory provisions relating to import licensing, technical standards and digital trade.

According to CPD, Bangladesh would be required to gradually eliminate tariffs on US-origin goods while facing potential additional tariffs if deemed non-compliant.

The report also claimed that Bangladesh would not be allowed to impose digital service taxes on US companies or introduce customs duties on electronic transmissions.

Other provisions cited include restrictions on retaliatory VAT measures, limitations on agreements with third countries that conflict with US standards and preferential access for certain US goods.

CPD warned that such clauses could severely jeopardise Bangladesh's smooth transition strategy (STS) for LDC graduation, particularly in negotiating balanced free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnership agreements (EPAs).

It urged the government to withdraw from the agreement before formal notification exchange and revisit other deals, including the EPA with Japan, particularly provisions related to duty-free LNG imports that may delay energy transition.

FDI Reform

CPD identified six major structural challenges in attracting and retaining foreign investment, including fragmented approvals, policy unpredictability, institutional overlap, slow dispute resolution, land access bottlenecks and weak data systems.

The report said investment approvals remain sequential rather than parallel, even after the launch of BanglaBiz offering over 100 services and fast-track foreign loan approvals up to $10 million for export-oriented firms.

CPD recommended mandatory API-based integration among the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA), National Board of Revenue, Registrar of Joint Stock Companies, Customs, BEZA and BEPZA to ensure simultaneous processing and real-time tracking.

The think tank called for converting profit repatriation commitments — including the 30-working-day resolution target — into binding legal standards through legislative amendments.

It also proposed designating specialised commercial benches within the High Court within 180 days and establishing a full-fledged International Commercial Court within 24 months.

To enhance transparency, CPD recommended creating a unified national FDI monitoring dashboard linked to the government's target of raising FDI to 2.5 % of GDP, with quarterly public reporting.

A national readiness audit of economic zones, including litigation-free land and confirmed utility capacity, should be completed within 180 days, the study added.

Dr Moazzem said that raising tax revenue, reducing business costs, negotiating trade agreements and attracting FDI must be guided by knowledge-based decision-making and parliamentary oversight.

He stressed that without structural reforms in fiscal governance, regulatory transparency and institutional accountability, policy initiatives may remain fragmented and ineffective.

"The new government has a strong electoral mandate. The challenge is to translate it into evidence-based, transparent and accountable decision-making," he said.

CPD's findings come as the government prepares to implement its first 180-day priority agenda following the 12 February national election.

When Ahsan Habib Mansur assumed office in the second week of August 2024 following a mass uprising, the financial reality was precarious.

Cheques of some banks were bouncing, many ATMs across the country were shuttered while others were awaiting routine cash supply, and the balance sheets of nearly a dozen banks were hollowed out.

Remittances and export receipts were lacklustre, commodity prices were on a wild ride, and the country had barely enough dollars to cover three months of essential imports.

By the time he left office yesterday and subsequently announced his abrupt resignation, the financial situation had somewhat stabilised, though many economic wounds were yet to be fully healed.

During his roughly 18-month tenure as the governor of the Bangladesh Bank (BB), Ahsan H Mansur, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist, was able to diagnose the economy’s ills, but he could not complete his reform agenda, according to economists and top bankers.

When Mansur took charge, gross reserves were $25.92 billion, and reserves as per the BPM6 count were $15 billion. Understandably, foreign exchange management was a particular area of his focus.

Mansur worked to strengthen reserves while bringing a more market-based exchange rate, a condition linked to the ongoing loan package by the IMF.

By the time he stepped down, gross reserves had risen to $35.04 billion, while the amount was $30.3 billion as per the BPM6 count. And the exchange rate has stabilised at Tk 122.20 per dollar.

Controlling inflation was another priority. It was 10.49% in the month he took office. He pursued a tight monetary policy and raised the policy rate to 10 percent swiftly after assuming office.

However, the former governor had to inject funds into ailing banks to protect depositors.

Inflation fell to 8.58 percent by January 2026, though supply-side constraints meant the decline fell short of expectations.

The banking sector presented a deeper challenge. Around a dozen of banks were sinking under heavy non-performing loans, while non-bank financial institutions were refusing to return deposits. Many bank boards were heavily influenced by politically affiliated figures.

Many bank directors reportedly fled the country with huge funds. Mansur responded with forensic audits to determine the real health of the sector and initiated reforms, though deep restructuring remained incomplete.

As long-buried toxic loans surfaced, the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) reached Tk 6.44 lakh crore in September last year from Tk 2.11 lakh crore in June 2024.

As part of his financial mess cleanup agenda, the former governor oversaw the merger of five ailing shariah-based banks, enacted the Bank Resolution Ordinance and the Deposit Insurance Ordinance. He also pushed for amendments to the Bangladesh Bank Order and the Bank Company Act, though those got stuck at the finance ministry.

While his public warnings on bank weaknesses initially spooked depositors, the measures ultimately strengthened transparency and governance.

Mustafa K. Mujeri, former director general of BIDS and ex-chief economist at the Bangladesh Bank, said, “When Mansur assumed office, it was a challenging time as the whole financial sector was on the edge of a cliff.”

“The sector had been looted. Mansur had to spend considerable time uncovering the true state of affairs,” he added.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director at local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), echoed similar views.

She said Mansur inherited a fragile banking sector with many banks burdened by massive non-performing loans. Bangladesh Bank had functioned largely as an implementing agency of the government, and the sector’s true health had been disguised.

“He had to run forensic audits to review asset quality and find the real health of the banking sector,” she said.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at CPD, said that the outgoing BB governor made serious efforts to reform the banking sector and restore discipline during a critical period for the economy.

“His initiatives included restructuring bank boards, promoting mergers among weak institutions, setting up an asset recovery company for distressed assets and curbing illicit financial outflows, although some changes were not fully endorsed by the interim government.”

Rahman described these steps as essential not only for immediate stability but for laying the foundation for long-term governance in the sector.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a former senior banker said Mansur demonstrated “earnest dedication and great sincerity” in his duties.

He described the former BB governor as an accomplished economist who stabilised fragile macroeconomic indicators amid post-Covid pressures, fallout of Russia-Ukraine war, and volatile global commodity prices.

“From a very dire situation, Mansur improved foreign exchange reserves and helped stabilise the taka-US dollar exchange rate,” the banker said. He added that Mansur also managed overdue petroleum and gas import liabilities and cleared remittance backlogs for airlines and shipping firms.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has sought suggestions from business leaders on why the cost of doing business is rising, what bureaucratic obstacles they face and what measures are needed to ease operations.

He discussed the issues today (25 February) during a meeting with a delegation of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), led by its President Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, at the Secretariat.

According to three garment sector leaders present at the meeting, the minister asked them to submit proposals outlining specific problems and possible solutions.

After the meeting, BGMEA Director Faisal Samad told The Business Standard, "We told the finance minister that instead of incentives, we need policy support to simplify business procedures and reduce costs. In response, he asked us to identify the problems and suggest ways to address them."

He said the association would submit a policy paper within a week outlining measures to reduce the cost of doing business.

Requesting anonymity, another BGMEA director said they informed the minister that customs-related costs have increased compared to before.

"The government has increased port charges, and illegal payments at customs have also risen," he alleged.

Businesses have long complained about harassment and demands for unofficial payments by some customs officials, particularly in matters related to bond licences, raw material entitlements, utility permissions and audits.

Another BGMEA leader present at the meeting said the minister questioned how much more support the garment sector should receive, noting that other sectors often say the industry already receives substantial government benefits.

At the meeting, BGMEA leaders said nearly one year's worth of incentive payments, amounting to around Tk8,000 crore, remain pending and urged the government to release the funds quickly.

They also said that due to two major holiday periods over the next two months, elections and Eid-ul-Fitr, factories would operate for only 35 days, making it difficult to manage working capital.

The association sought a loan facility of around Tk7,000 crore to cover one month's wages, to be repaid over 15 months.

According to the business leaders, the finance minister responded positively to the proposal.

China has expressed interest in expanding investment in Bangladesh, focusing on job creation and industrial revival, during a meeting between Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen and Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir at the Secretariat today (25 February).

At the meeting, the government formally sought Chinese investment in several closed fertiliser factories struggling with prolonged gas shortages.

The commerce minister said Bangladesh has six fertiliser plants whose production has been repeatedly disrupted due to inadequate gas supply.

"We are searching for investors capable of importing LNG to restart fertiliser production. The government will purchase the fertiliser produced," Muktadir said, outlining a potential pathway to revive idle capacity and stabilise supply.

The minister also invited Chinese investors to explore opportunities in Bangladesh's closed jute mills, emphasising the sector's potential for modernisation and employment generation.

Highlighting broader areas of cooperation, Muktadir said China could assist Bangladesh in digital infrastructure development, establishment of e-learning centres, and advancement of artificial intelligence technologies.

He noted that such partnerships would further deepen bilateral economic ties.

Ambassador Yao Wen congratulated the BNP on securing a decisive mandate in the 13th national parliamentary election and congratulated Muktadir on assuming office as commerce minister.

He said China is keen to increase investment flows into Bangladesh and voiced optimism about economic collaboration under the newly elected government.

The ambassador also extended an invitation to the commerce minister to visit China.

State Minister for Commerce Md Shariful Alam, Additional Secretary (Export) Md Abdur Rahim Khan, and Additional Secretary (FTA) Ayesha Akter were present at the meeting.

Newly appointed Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has said restoring trust and discipline in the country's banking sector will be his foremost priority as he assumes office.

"Inshallah, first I will sit at the bank and hold discussions with everyone. With everyone's cooperation, the main task will be trust building in the banking sector and bringing back greater discipline," he told bdnews24.com in an immediate reaction today (25 February).

He acknowledged the efforts of his predecessor, Dr Ahsan H Mansur, in restoring order in the sector and expressed his intention to further strengthen those initiatives.

Mostaqur also said reducing interest rates would be among his key priorities to support economic growth.

"As you know, the economy and the banking sector are facing challenges. Taking on this responsibility at this time is itself a challenge," he said.

He noted that credit growth has slowed in recent months and emphasised the need to lower interest rates to help stimulate economic activity.

"Our priority will be to work first. We do not want a situation where we talk but cannot deliver. Please pray for us. We seek everyone's cooperation," he added.

Md Mostaqur Rahman FCMA has been appointed governor of Bangladesh Bank for a four-year term, replacing Dr Ahsan H Mansur.

The Financial Institutions Division of the Ministry of Finance issued a gazette notification this afternoon confirming his appointment.

He is the managing director and chief executive officer of Hera Sweaters Limited and currently serves as chairman of the BGMEA Standing Committee on Bangladesh Bank.

He was also a member of the BNP's election steering committee during the 13th national election held earlier this month.

A qualified Cost and Management Accountant (CMA) with 33+ years of post-qualification experience, he holds a BCom (Hons) and a Master's Degree from the Department of Accounting at Dhaka University, according to his curriculum vitae.

Throughout his career, he has been a member of prestigious professional and industry associations, including Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Real Estate and Housing Associations of Bangladesh (REHAB), Association of Travel Agents of Bangladesh (ATAB), and Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), and has served on various important committees.

He has also worked closely with various regulators, including the Bangladesh Bank and Chittagong Stock Exchange Ltd.

Mostaqur is a senior financial governance specialist with over 30 years of leadership experience in corporate finance, export economics, institutional governance, and financial systems management, with expertise in financial oversight, regulatory compliance, banking-sector engagement, and capital management.

Commenting on the reshuffle at the Bangladesh Bank governor's post, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury has said that changes are inevitable as a new government has come to power.

"A new government has come to power. Many things will change. There has been a change here as well. This is nothing new," the minister told reporters while leaving the Secretariat this afternoon (25 February).

He added that changes would take place in many other areas, too.

Earlier in the day, the Financial Institutions Division (FID) of the Ministry of Finance issued a gazette notification appointing Md Mostaqur Rahman FCMA as the new governor of the central bank, replacing Ahsan H Mansur.

This marked the first time in Bangladesh's history that a businessman has been appointed as the Bangladesh Bank governor.

Asked whether there was any specific reason behind such a rapid change at the governor's post, the finance minister avoided a direct response, reiterating that more changes were forthcoming and that there was no particular reason behind this move.

The finance minister also had a busy day, holding meetings with the commerce minister, commerce secretary, finance secretary, FID secretary, and the chairman of the National Board of Revenue.

Mostaqur is the chairman of the BGMEA Standing Committee on Bangladesh Bank and the managing director and CEO of Hera Sweaters Limited. He was also a member of the BNP's election steering committee during the 13th national election held earlier this month.

The previous interim government on 13 August -- eight days after a mass uprising ousted the Awami League government -- appointed Mansur as the BB governor, in place of Abdur Rouf Talukder, who resigned on 9 August.

The FID in another gazette notification this afternoon cancelled the rest of Mansur's tenure, while Mostaqur's notification said his appointment order, issued in the public interest, will take effect immediately.

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) Limited on Wednesday said that net income fell $1.8 billion to $21.1 billion in 2025 as the bank ploughed ahead with sweeping overhauls to streamline its structure and cut costs.

Profit attributable to shareholders last year stood at $21.1 billion, from $22.9 billion the year before, the lender said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Pre-tax profit fell $2.4 billion to $29.9 billion.

The World Trade Organization said Tuesday it would establish an expert panel to examine a Chinese complaint over Indian incentive schemes in the automotive and renewable energy sectors.

The WTO said in a statement that its Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) had agreed during a meeting to set up a panel to review China’s assertion that the Indian measures unfairly discriminate against foreign businesses and restrict trade, in violation of WTO rules.

The measures in question include incentives for the production of advanced chemistry cell batteries, automobile and auto components and electric vehicles.

China, which charged that the measures discriminated against the use of goods of Chinese origin, had back in October requested consultations with India to iron out the dispute. When that did not work, Beijing first asked the WTO last month to establish a panel of experts, but the request was blocked by India.

The DSB granted the second request on Tuesday.

Under WTO regulations, parties in a dispute can block a first request for an arbitration panel, but if the parties make a second request, it is all but guaranteed to go through.

India told Tuesday’s DSB meeting that it regretted that China had pushed forward with its panel request, insisting it had participated in the earlier consultations in good faith.

It said it remained confident its measures complied with WTO rules.

The United States, a third party in the case, also voiced disappointment that China had chosen to move forward with the panel request.

“China’s complaint is a regrettable attempt to distract from its own non-market policies and practices, to entrench reliance on China’s non-market excess capacity, and to undermine the broader interests of all WTO Members,” the US representative said.

Trading at the Dhaka bourse ended on a mixed note as the benchmark index edged up slightly, while overall market turnover dropped sharply, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

The DSEX, the broad index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), rose 12 points to close at 5,554. The blue-chip DS30 index also advanced, gaining 8 points to settle at 2,151. Of the total issues traded during the session, 154 advanced, 167 declined and 72 remained unchanged, indicating a mixed market breadth.

However, turnover fell by 31% to Tk565 crore, highlighting subdued trading activity as investors remained watchful amid prevailing market uncertainty.

Market analysts said the sharp fall in turnover suggests investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, even as selective buying in large-cap stocks continues to lend support to the index.

According to EBL Securities in its daily market review, the benchmark index managed to settle in positive territory following the previous session's modest pullback, as late-session buying support emerged across the trading board after extended intraday volatility.

Sellers maintained dominance for most of the session as cautious sentiment shaped the broader market pulse. Emerging buying activity in the final hour, particularly in selective large-cap stocks, helped the market close in the green, the EBL review added.

Major index pullers included Beximco Pharmaceuticals, City Bank, Bank Asia, BRAC Bank and Al-Arafah Islami Bank, whose gains supported the upward movement of the index.

On the sectoral front, banking stocks accounted for the highest turnover at 24.6%, followed by pharmaceuticals at 10.8% and textiles at 9.9%.

Sector performance was mixed, with jute rising 1.2%, textile gaining 0.6% and financial institutions adding 0.6%. In contrast, mutual funds fell 1.3%, general insurance declined 0.6% and life insurance slipped 0.4%.

Among individual stocks, Usmania Glass topped the gainers' chart with a 10% rise, followed by Northern Jute and Khulna Printing and Packaging, both up 9.93%. Meghna Condensed Milk and Meghna PET also posted strong gains.

On the losing side, MBL First Mutual Fund dropped 4.76%, while First Finance and Tung Hai Knitting each declined 3.84%.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) reported a 14% decline in its overall earnings to Tk105 crore in the 2024–25 fiscal year, mainly due to a sharp fall in income from fines, fees and licensing, according to its annual report.

Earnings from fines, fees and licensing dropped 32% year-on-year to Tk39.72 crore, while other income slipped 2% to Tk65.32 crore.

Despite the fall in revenue, the regulator managed to reduce its total costs by 21% to Tk75.82 crore, largely driven by lower expenditure on salaries, allowances and other administrative expenses.

After deducting all costs, the commission's net surplus rose 12% to Tk29.23 crore in FY25, reflecting improved expenditure management. The regulator's total assets stood at Tk498.60 crore at the end of FY25, up from Tk469.89 crore a year earlier.

During the fiscal year, the commission approved Tk6,172.46 crore in capital increases through various instruments. This included Tk303 crore for one listed company via a rights issue, Tk4,671 crore for 11 companies through private debt placements, Tk5 crore for a qualified investor company, and Tk1,193 crore for 15 companies through the issuance of ordinary, bonus and preference shares.

Of the 226 complaints received from individuals and institutions, 222 were resolved while four are still under process. The regulator carried out 92 investigations and inquiries, along with 610 inspections, to detect irregularities and securities law violations. It took 987 enforcement actions — fining 229 individuals and institutions, issuing warnings to 684, and granting exemptions to 74. Between 19 August 2024 and 30 June 2025, fines totaling Tk1,073.21 crore were imposed.

The commission reported 527 cases pending in different courts, including those filed by and against it. During the year, it filed four cases, faced 76, and saw 76 cases disposed of. To strengthen market discipline and modernisation, the commission issued 11 orders, directives and notifications.

To boost international credibility and attract foreign investment, the commission scrapped discriminatory circuit breakers and lifted floor prices for most companies in August 2024. It said allowing market-driven price discovery based on supply and demand would ensure long-term stability and help restore investor confidence.