Gold prices were largely steady near its all-time peak on Tuesday, ‌supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, while investor caution ahead of key inflation data limited upside momentum.

Spot gold traded 0.1 percent lower at $4,588.43 per ounce as of 0947 GMT, following a record high of $4,629.94 in the previous session. US gold futures for February delivery slipped 0.4 percent to $4,597.50.

“A ‌modest recovery in the US dollar, driven by hawkish comments from a ​senior Fed official, and investors’ focus on the release of US CPI data later in the session acts as a headwind (for gold),” said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo ‍Evangelista.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that the central bank does not face any near-term pressure to change the stance of monetary policy.

Investors are ⁠currently anticipating two interest rate cuts this year, with today’s Consumer Price ‍Index data expected to provide further clues on monetary policy going forward.

On the geopolitical ‌front, ‌Russian forces launched the year’s most intense wave of missile attacks on Ukraine early on Tuesday, killing four people and injuring several others.

Meanwhile, US President Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face ⁠a 25 percent tariff on trade ⁠with the United ​States.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and when geopolitical or economic risks spike.

“With (gold) prices consolidating above the $4,500 level, supported by a bearish outlook for ‍the dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the $5,000 mark appears increasingly within reach and could be tested in the first half of the year,” Evangelista added.

State-owned Sonali Bank achieved a milestone in 2025 by recording its highest-ever operating profit of Tk8,017.35 crore, representing a substantial increase of Tk2,322.80 crore over the previous year.

The figures were disclosed by the bank's managing director and chief executive officer, Md Shawkat Ali Khan, during a press briefing held at the bank's headquarters in Dhaka's Motijheel today (13 January).

Shawkat noted that the bank's operating profit in 2024 stood at Tk5,694.55 crore, and he expressed optimism that the net profit for 2025 would exceed Tk1,500 crore after necessary provisioning.

A significant highlight of the year was the bank successfully addressing its chronic capital deficit. "For a long time, capital shortfall was a major challenge for state-owned banks," the MD said. "As of this year, Sonali Bank no longer has a capital deficit. Being free from this burden is a massive achievement for us."

The bank's Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio now exceeds the minimum regulatory requirement of 10%, providing a strong foundation for future business expansion.

On asset quality, Shawkat said the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio had fallen to 15.4% as of 25 December. The bank aims to reduce this to 11-12% by 2026 and bring it down to single digits within the next three years, between 2026 and 2027, he said.

The MD said that Tk745 crore has already been recovered from the top 20 defaulters, with further recovery processes ongoing. "To mitigate risk, the bank is also decentralising its loan portfolio."

Currently, 37% of total loans are concentrated in five branches; these are being gradually shifted to other branches to reduce credit concentration, he said.

Despite the record profits, the bank still has significant outstanding receivables from various government entities. Specifically, Sonali Bank is owed approximately Tk5,500 crore in LC (Letter of Credit) commissions for its role as the sole financier of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project. "Recovery of these funds will further strengthen our capital base," Shawkat noted.

Reflecting on past challenges, the MD said that no major irregularities have occurred since the Hallmark scandal, attributing the current stability to strict credit appraisal and improved corporate governance.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) closed marginally higher yesterday as a strong rally in insurance stocks helped pull the broader market into positive territory, despite mixed performances across other sectors.

Investors showed renewed interest in both general and life insurance shares, which provided the key support to the market at a time when overall participation remained moderate.

The DSEX ended the session up by 4 points, or 0.09%, at 4,946, while the blue-chip DS30 index gained 1.37 points, or 0.07%, to settle at 1,899.

Market breadth was nearly balanced, with 159 issues advancing, 156 declining and 75 remaining unchanged, reflecting a cautious but selective trading pattern.

Turnover improved by around 10% from the previous session, rising to Tk386 crore, as investors became more active in a handful of sectors and stocks.

According to the daily market review of LankaBangla Securities, general insurance stocks dominated the trading floor, accounting for the highest share of total turnover.

This heavy concentration of trading value underscored the renewed speculative and institutional interest in the sector. Mutual funds and pharmaceutical stocks followed, although their turnover shares were far lower compared to insurance counters, LankaBangla said.

Sector-wise, general insurance posted the strongest return of the day, rising by 2.06%, while life insurance also performed well, gaining 1.15%. These gains played a decisive role in lifting the benchmark index, as several insurance stocks experienced sharp price jumps.

Non-bank financial institutions and pharmaceutical companies also ended the day in positive territory, each advancing by 0.29%, supported by selective buying in fundamentally strong names.

However, not all sectors shared the upbeat tone. Paper and printing stocks slipped by 0.65%, mutual funds fell by 0.64% and jute declined by 0.45%, as investors booked profits and remained cautious about near-term prospects in these segments.

The mixed sectoral performance highlighted the lack of a broad-based rally, with the market largely driven by insurance-led momentum.

Square Pharmaceuticals, Orion Infusion, Dominage Steel, City Bank and Fine Foods emerged as the top turnover leaders, reflecting continued investor focus on liquid and widely followed stocks.

On the gainers' board, Fareast Finance led the rally, followed by Paramount Insurance, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing and Bangladesh Welding, many of which benefited from speculative demand.

In contrast, Beach Hatchery topped the losers' list, while BIFC, Alif Industries, International Leasing and GQ Ball Pen also posted notable declines.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange echoed the positive trend, with both of its indices closing higher, although turnover dropped sharply to Tk5.66 crore.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has approved the draft prospectuses of three closed-end mutual funds, with a combined target size of Tk75 crore, marking a fresh boost for the capital market amid a slowdown in new product launches.

The approval was given at a commission meeting held at the regulator's office yesterday, according to a press release.

The approved funds are Midland Bank Growth Fund, Midland Bank Balanced Fund, and the Shariah-based Sandhani AML SLFL Shariah Fund.

Market participants have welcomed the move, describing it as a positive signal at a time when the introduction of new investment products in the capital market has remained sluggish.

According to the press release, the initial target size of the Midland Bank Growth Fund has been set at Tk25 crore. As the sponsor, Midland Bank PLC has invested Tk2.5 crore in the fund, while the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be raised from general investors. The fund's unit face value has been fixed at Tk10.

Midland Bank Asset Management Company Limited will act as the asset manager of the fund. Sandhani Life Insurance Company Limited will serve as the trustee, while Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the custodian.

At the same meeting, the commission also approved the draft prospectus and abridged version of the Midland Bank Balanced Fund. The fund's initial target size has also been set at Tk25 crore. Midland Bank PLC, as the sponsor, will contribute Tk2.5 crore, and the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be offered to general investors. The unit face value of the fund has been fixed at Tk10.

Midland Bank Asset Management Company Limited will serve as the asset manager, while Sandhani Life Insurance Company Limited and Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the trustee and custodian, respectively.

In addition, the commission approved the draft prospectus of the Shariah-based closed-end mutual fund Sandhani AML SLFL Shariah Fund. The fund's initial target size has been set at Tk25 crore. The sponsor, Sandhani Life Finance Limited, will invest Tk2.5 crore, while the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be raised from general investors. The unit face value of the fund has also been fixed at Tk10.

Sandhani Asset Management Limited will act as the asset manager of the fund. Bangladesh General Insurance Company PLC will serve as the trustee, and Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the custodian.

Market insiders said the approval of three closed-end mutual funds at a single meeting could help channel fresh long-term funds into the capital market. Mutual funds are widely regarded by investors as relatively safer, professionally managed investment vehicles, particularly for long-term investment.

The approval of a Shariah-based fund is also expected to create new opportunities for investors seeking Islamic investment products.

Bangladesh's steel and cement industries have spent much of the past two years in survival mode, battered by weak demand, high financing costs and a prolonged squeeze on margins.

Yet, even in this prolonged downturn, a group of large millers have managed to hold its ground, not because of any market recovery, but due to structural advantages built over time.

Industry insiders say the real dividing line is no longer pricing power alone. Companies that invested early in oceangoing vessels, feeder networks and energy-efficient production lines are now better placed to absorb shocks that continue to weigh on smaller producers.

In the cement sector, the advantage begins far from shore.

Large cement producers that own or control mother vessels can import clinker and other raw materials in parcels of 50,000 tonnes or more, significantly lowering freight costs. Brands such as Fresh, Shah, Crown and Akij fall into this category, according to industry insiders.

Smaller millers, by contrast, typically pool shipments, with three or four companies sharing a vessel, or rely on spot freight and lighterage, pushing up per-tonne costs.

"Small millers like us spend around $14 per tonne to import clinker, while large mills with their own vessels manage it at about $12," said Md Shahidullah, managing director of Metrocem Group, which has investments in both cement and steel.

"That difference may look small, but in a low-margin market it determines who survives," he said.

Beyond freight, vertically integrated supply chains, linking mother vessels to feeder ships and in-house logistics, also reduce uncertainty in delivery schedules, allowing larger producers to plan production more efficiently.

Technology has become second line of defence

Cement factories operating vertical roller mills (VRM) enjoy a production cost advantage of about Tk10 to Tk15 per bag compared with traditional tube or ball mills due to lower energy consumption and higher efficiency, Shahidullah said.

Major players including Shah Cement, Crown, Premier, 7 Rings, Akij and Bashundhara have already shifted to VRM-based production, insulating them from some of the cost pressures that continue to batter the industry.

But the entry barrier is steep. Industry insiders say at least Tk1,000 crore is needed to set up a VRM cement factory.

"Setting up a VRM plant requires an investment four to five times higher than a tube mill," said Mohammed Amirul Haque, managing director of Premier Cement Mills and president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association.

"A VRM factory consumes less energy and we use power-saving devices to reduce costs. Yet Premier Cement is running at 40-50% capacity because of subdued demand," he told The Business Standard.

Md Khurshed Alam, executive director of Fresh Cement, said big mills are surviving on volume rather than profits.

"There is overcapacity, so there is a price war," he said.

According to the cement association, installed capacity now stands at nearly 100 million tonnes of cement, while annual demand is only around 40 million tonnes. Until the 1990s, Bangladesh was almost entirely dependent on imports.

"Demand from the government has gone down to nearly zero and we are surviving on remittance-driven demand," Alam said.

Steel facing similar squeeze

Many steel mills are operating at just 35-40% capacity amid a prolonged slowdown in construction, including mega projects.

As in cement, large steel producers enjoy a cost advantage by importing raw materials in bulk, often using their own vessels.

"Per-container freight costs are about $30 lower for large mills compared with smaller ones," said Shahidullah of Metrocem Steel.

Data from the Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association show the country has around 400 steel mills with a combined capacity of about 9 million tonnes, against demand of roughly 4 million tonnes.

The top ten producers control nearly 70% of the market, with BSRM leading at about 20%, followed by AKS, GPH and KSRM.

Smaller millers fear they may be forced out as three large new plants, together adding almost half the capacity of dozens of existing mills, are set to intensify competition.

Two projects, Bashundhara Multi Steel with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes and Meghna Re-Rolling and Steel Mills with 1.5 million tonnes, are expected to come online this year. Chattogram-based Unitex Group is also setting up a one-million-tonne steel mill.

"The steel market has remained lean for nearly two years, and we expect demand to revive after the election,' said Mohammad Mazedul Islam, head of project at Bashundhara Multi Steel.

"We are preparing to enter the market by the end of this year," he said.

Mazedul said the technology being deployed would reduce production costs by about Tk5,000 per tonne, giving the company a significant competitive edge. Bashundhara has invested Tk4,500 crore in the project, which is expected to create around 1,000 jobs.

Industry insiders say the new entrants are betting on technology and scale to survive in an increasingly competitive market.

Mohammad Firoz, chief executive of Meghna Re-Rolling and Steel Mills, which has secured a $100 million financing package from the IFC, said he remains confident about the company's long-term prospects.

"We are using the latest technology, which will significantly reduce energy costs," he said.

"We can compete on scale, productivity and overheads. We are not worried," he added, while noting that market consolidation is likely as smaller mills struggle to compete with larger players on volume.

Despite long-standing health and environmental concerns linked to plastic factories in Old Dhaka, the government's effort to shift them to Munshiganj has made little progress over the past ten years. Although a modern plastic industrial city was approved in 2015, persistent land acquisition hurdles stalled the project at its outset.

The project was originally approved on 1 December 2015, with a target completion date of June 2018. Following multiple extensions, the deadline was last set for December 2025, but the project has just started and the timeline has now been pushed back again to December 2027, marking the project's fifth extension.

According to the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (BSCIC) sources, 47% of earth filling work has been completed, while overall project progress stands at only 14-15%. Once land filling is finished, construction will begin in phases, BSCIC Chairman Saiful Islam said.

He said delays occurred mainly because the agency failed to secure the initially allocated land at the start of the project. Strong resistance from local residents prevented land acquisition for nearly seven years, from 2015 to 2022, and five project directors were unable to resolve the issue. Eventually, in 2023, the government decided to abandon the original site beside the expressway and relocate the project near the Chemical Industrial City.

According to BSCIC, the authority finally took possession of the new land on 15 July 2025. Boundary demarcation and pre-leveling work were completed despite adverse monsoon conditions, and earth-filling activities began soon after.

The plastic industrial city's initial estimated cost of Tk133 crore has risen to Tk509 crore, largely due to an expansion of the project area from 50 acres to 95 acres, inflation, and higher construction expenses. Project Director Md Anis Uddin explained that the expanded area doubled the length of roads, drains, and boundary walls, significantly increasing costs.

He also noted that earth-filling costs rose from Tk200 per cubic metre in 2012 to Tk510 in 2023. Despite these challenges, he expressed hope that the project would be completed by December 2027, though low river water levels during the dry season could hamper sand transportation and impede progress.

Industry leaders warn that prolonged delays are taking a toll on the sector. According to the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BPGMEA), plastic goods worth around Tk45,000 crore are produced and sold domestically, contributing about Tk3,500 crore annually in internal revenue. In the 2024–25 fiscal year, Bangladesh exported plastic products to 126 countries, earning approximately $1.2 billion – a 20% year-on-year increase. The sector supports around 1.2 million people directly and indirectly.

BPGMEA President Shamim Ahmed said plastic factories operating within Dhaka remain in hazardous conditions, frequently facing fire risks that endanger workers and nearby residents. He expressed frustration that the Munshiganj project has remained unfinished for nearly 10 years, saying the delay is hurting exports, damaging Bangladesh's image, and creating financial and psychological stress for entrepreneurs.

Regarding plot allocations, the BSCIC chairman said plots will only be handed over once the project is fully completed. He said the authority recognises the plastic industry's vast potential and is keen to complete the project swiftly to help the sector grow and attract new investment.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has reported an encouraging response to its online income tax return (e-return) system in the 2025–26 tax year, with a marked rise in participation from expatriate Bangladeshis despite the service not being mandatory for them.

According to an NBR media release issued this evening (12 January), around 4.553 million taxpayers have so far registered with the e-return system, while 3.188 million taxpayers have already submitted their income tax returns online for the 2025–26 tax year.

Under a special order issued by the NBR, online submission of income tax returns has been made mandatory for all individual taxpayers, except senior citizens aged 65 years and above, physically challenged and special-needs taxpayers, Bangladeshis residing abroad, legal representatives filing returns on behalf of deceased taxpayers, and foreign nationals working in Bangladesh.

The e-return submission system for the 2025–26 tax year was formally inaugurated on August 4, 2025, by Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed through the NBR's dedicated website, www.etaxnbr.gov.bd.

Although expatriate Bangladeshis are exempt from the mandatory online filing requirement, a growing number of them are voluntarily using the digital platform to submit their tax returns.

The NBR noted that Bangladeshis living abroad are increasingly embracing the e-return system, reflecting rising trust and confidence in the country's digital tax services.

To facilitate overseas taxpayers, the NBR has introduced a simplified registration process.

Non-resident Bangladeshis can apply for access to the e-return system by sending their passport number, national identity card number, email address and other relevant information to ereturn@etaxnbr.gov.bd.

Upon verification, the applicants receive a one-time password (OTP) and a registration link via email, enabling them to complete registration and submit their returns online from abroad.

So far, nearly 5,000 expatriate Bangladeshis have successfully completed registration using OTPs sent to their email addresses.

Of them, around 3,300 non-resident taxpayers have already paid income tax online from overseas and submitted their e-returns for the current tax year.

The NBR also reported that, on average, around 100 expatriate taxpayers per day are seeking e-return-related services via email from abroad, which are being handled by the e-Tax Management Unit under the revenue board.

Officials said the strong participation of expatriate Bangladeshis, alongside domestic taxpayers, is providing a significant boost to the NBR's digital transformation drive and strengthening the momentum of its technology-based taxpayer services.

The revenue authority expressed optimism that the growing acceptance of the e-return system would help improve tax compliance, reduce administrative hassles and ensure greater transparency in tax administration.

The NBR has urged all individual taxpayers, including expatriate Bangladeshis, to submit their 2025–26 income tax returns by January 31, 2026, through the e-return system, while pledging to enhance the platform and expand digital services for easier, faster, and more taxpayer-friendly compliance.

Unilever Consumer Care, a listed multinational company formerly known as GlaxoSmithKline, has been removed from the Dhaka Stock Exchange’s (DSE) main index, the DSEX, after failing to meet eligibility criteria.

It was excluded alongside 15 other companies during the latest periodic review. The removal means their share prices will no longer factor into the calculation of the market’s overall performance.

At the same time, nine companies were added to the index after meeting the same criteria. Six belong to the DSE’s Z category -- stocks considered non-performing due to weak fundamentals or governance issues. One is from the low-performing B category, and only two are A-category companies, generally regarded as financially sound.

The inclusion of such stocks in the benchmark index, alongside the exclusion of a stable multinational, sends a troubling signal to institutional and foreign investors, say experts.

The DSE said the reshuffle was based on objective indicators.

To qualify for the DSEX, a company must have a float-adjusted market capitalisation above Tk 10 crore and an average daily trading value of at least Tk 10 lakh over the previous six months. Unilever Consumer Care fell short on the latter, with its shares traded too infrequently to meet the liquidity threshold.

In contrast, several Z-category stocks comfortably exceeded the minimum trading requirement despite weak financial performance and minimal dividend payouts.

A MARKET DRIVEN BY SPECULATION

The review highlights a striking trend of investors showing greater interest in speculative, low-quality stocks than in a multinational company that paid a 520 percent cash dividend in 2024.

Six of the newly included Z-category firms -- BD Welding, DESCO, Dulamia Cotton, Safko Spinning, Standard Ceramics, and Zeel Bangla Sugar Mills -- returned little or nothing to shareholders in the last fiscal year.

Dulamia Cotton, for instance, paid a 3 percent dividend, its first in at least 15 years, according to DSE data.

Analysts say the rush into non-performing stocks is driven more by speculation than fundamentals.

Many of these Z-category stocks trade actively on persistent rumours of future gains, often without verifiable evidence. Their relatively small paid-up capital also makes them easier to manipulate, as modest trading volumes can sharply move prices.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association (DBA), said the trend reflected “blatantly illogical” investor behaviour.

“It indicates our investors take decisions on their own without relying on professionals. The market also lacks educated, professional brokers. It’s been a dry market for a long time,” he said.

Saiful added that the removal of a company like Unilever sends a “ruinous message to foreign investors” and called for the DSEX inclusion criteria to be reconsidered.

The trading pattern has also been reinforced by the absence of foreign and institutional investors. “Foreign and institutional investors are not active in the market, which has allowed small investors to drive up the prices of certain companies,” said Iftekhar Alam, president of the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association.

BEXIMCO AND FLOOR PRICE DEBATE

Among those excluded from the index is Beximco Ltd, a large-cap stock that remains subject to a regulatory floor price -- a minimum level below which its shares cannot fall.

At present, only Islami Bank and Beximco continue to enjoy such protection. Market analysts say Beximco’s share price could decline sharply if the floor is lifted, particularly amid concerns over ownership and governance.

Regulators had previously hesitated to remove Beximco’s floor price because of the company’s heavy weight in the index, which could have dragged the market lower.

With Beximco now removed from the DSEX, that constraint has eased, increasing the likelihood that the floor price could be withdrawn.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has finalised the annual rebalancing of its benchmark index and the semi-annual rebalancing of its blue-chip index, leading to the exclusion of several market heavyweights and multinational entities.

According to the latest reshuffle, 16 companies are being dropped from the DSE Bangladesh Broad Index (DSEX), while nine new firms are being included. This adjustment brings the total number of constituents in the DSEX to 319, down from the previous 326.

The new index composition, approved by the DSE Index Committee, is scheduled to take effect on 18 January.

Among the most notable DSEX exclusions is Beximco Limited, along with the multinational Unilever Consumer Care. The list of dropped companies also highlights significant stress in the banking sector, as five banks – Exim Bank, Social Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Union Bank, and Global Islami Bank – have been removed from the broad index.

Other notable exits include Phoenix Finance, Midas Finance, Union Capital, Apollo Ispat, and Hamid Fabrics.

On the entry side, the DSEX is seeing an influx of mostly Z-category or "junk" stocks. New additions include Bangladesh Welding, Desco, Dulamia Cotton, Safko Spinnings, Standard Ceramic, and Zeal Bangla Sugar, alongside A-category firms like Hwa Well Textile and Northern Islami Insurance, and B-category Sharp Industries.

DSE officials noted that although many of the removed companies maintained substantial market capitalisation, they failed to meet the necessary trading or turnover criteria. This disconnect is largely attributed to the ongoing slowdown in the capital market, which has dampened trading activity across the board.

Under the Bangladesh Index Methodology developed by S&P Dow Jones Indices, stocks must meet specific liquidity and market cap thresholds to remain eligible. For the DSEX, a constituent must maintain a float-adjusted market capitalisation of at least Tk10 crore. More importantly, stocks are required to have a minimum six-month average daily value traded of Tk10 lakh. They must also trade for at least half of the normal trading days in each of the three months leading up to the rebalancing.

Simultaneously, the blue-chip DSE 30 Index (DS30), which represents the most investable and liquid stocks on the exchange, underwent its semi-annual rebalancing.

Three companies – Meghna Petroleum, BSRM Steel, and Fine Foods – have been included in this prestigious list. They replaced Heidelberg Materials, GPH Ispat, and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, which were dropped for failing to sustain the required criteria.

The DS30 is designed to reflect a significant portion of the total equity market capitalisation and is built on pillars of liquidity, financial viability, and market cap.

To qualify for the DS30, a company must have a float-adjusted market capitalisation above Tk50 crore and maintain a three-month average daily value traded of at least Tk50 lakh. Furthermore, the methodology mandates that DS30 constituents must be profitable, specifically requiring positive net income over the latest 12-month period. This is calculated by aggregating the four most recent quarters of reported net income. While the liquidity requirement can be eased to Tk30 lakh under certain conditions to maintain index size, the fundamental requirement for financial viability remains a strict barrier for entry into the blue-chip category.

In contrast to the shifts in the main board, the DSE SME Growth Index (DSMEX) remained entirely unchanged following its annual review. No new companies met the criteria for inclusion, and none of the existing 19 constituents failed to meet the requirements.

Consequently, the DSMEX will continue with its current lineup of 19 companies when the new changes take effect later this month.

The National Economic Council (NEC) on Monday approved Revised Annual Development Programme(ADP) for the fiscal year 2025–26 with a total size of Tk 2.08935 trillion, marking a reduction from the original allocation amid resource constraints and macroeconomic considerations.

The decision was made at an NEC meeting held at the NEC Conference Room chaired by Chief Adviser and NEC Chairperson Prof Muhammad Yunus.

Under the revised plan, Tk 2.0 trillion has been allocated for ministries and divisions while projects of autonomous bodies and corporations bring the total revised ADP size to Tk 2.08,935 trillion.

Of the Tk 2.0 trillion, Tk 1.28 trillion will come from domestic sources and Tk 720 billion from foreign financing.

Compared to the original ADP, the revised programme reflects a cut of Tk 160 billion from domestic sources and Tk 140 billion from foreign financing, totaling a reduction of Tk 300 billion.
Autonomous bodies and corporations have been allocated Tk 89.3553 billion, mostly from domestic sources.

The revised ADP covers 1,330 projects including 1,108 investment projects, 35 feasibility studies, 121 technical assistance projects, and 66 projects implemented by autonomous bodies and corporations using their own funds.

Among these, 286 projects are scheduled for completion by June 30, 2026.

The programme also includes 170 projects funded by the Climate Change Trust Fund.

Sectoral priorities under the revised ADP are transport and communication, power and energy, housing and community facilities, education, and local government and rural development, which together account for Tk 1.21118 trillion, or 60.54 per cent of the total allocation.

Among ministries and divisions, the highest allocations have gone to the Local Government Division followed by the Road Transport and Highways Division and the Power Division.

Other major recipients include the Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, Secondary and Higher Education Division, Ministry of Shipping, Bridges Division, and Ministry of Railways.

The revised ADP also incorporates 856 new unapproved projects without allocation, 157 unapproved projects to facilitate foreign assistance, 35 new projects under agency self-financing, and 81 Public-Private Partnership projects.

Officials said the revised programme is expected to boost economic activities, accelerate GDP growth, generate employment, enhance education and healthcare, support human resource development, achieve food self-sufficiency, and contribute to poverty alleviation and overall socio-economic development.

The NEC meeting was attended by Planning Adviser, Advisory Council members, Cabinet Secretary, Principal Secretary to the Chief Adviser, Bangladesh Bank Governor, Planning Commission members, and senior secretaries from various ministries and divisions.

The stock market closed mixed on Monday as the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) edged up marginally, while the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) ended lower amid broad-based price declines.

Despite remaining under pressure for most of the session, the DSE’s key index DSEX managed to close 2 points higher, UNB reports.

Among the other indices, the Shariah-based DSES remained unchanged, while the blue-chip DS30 gained 1 point.

Market breadth, however, stayed negative on the DSE, with prices falling for 175 companies against gains for 140, while 78 issues remained unchanged.

The turnover on the premier bourse declined by Tk 6 crore to Tk 352 crore, down from Tk 412 crore in the previous session.

In the block market, shares of 20 companies worth Tk 13 crore were traded, with Fine Foods Limited accounting for the highest turnover of Tk 4 crore.

Chartered Life Insurance PLC topped the DSE gainers’ list after its share price rose 7 percent, while Premier Leasing and Finance Limited plunged 10 percent to become the worst performer of the day.Financial planning tools

The CSE extended its losing streak for a second consecutive session, with the All Share Price Index (CASPI) shedding 20 points.

Most stocks closed lower on the port city bourse as prices declined for 83 companies, rose for 43, and remained unchanged for 19.

The turnover on the CSE, however, increased to Tk 7 crore from Tk 4 crore a day earlier.

S. Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited topped the CSE gainers with a 10 percent rise, while FAS Finance and Investment Limited ended at the bottom of the chart, losing 10 percent.

Gold broke through $4,600/ounce for the first time on Monday, while silver also hit a record high, as investors snapped up safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Spot gold jumped 1.7 percent to $4,584.74 per ounce by 0752 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day. US gold futures for February delivery added 2.1 percent to $4,595.30.

“So, between events in Iran, and potential US involvement, and the (Fed) chair being the focus of a criminal probe... US futures turned lower on the Powell news, which was a green light for gold to take a run higher,” said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade’s chief market analyst.

Unrest in Iran has killed more than 500 people, a rights group said on Sunday, as Tehran threatened to target US military bases if President Donald Trump carries out his renewed threats to strike the country on behalf of protesters.

Iran’s unrest comes as Trump flexes US muscles internationally, having ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and discussing annexing Greenland by force or by purchasing the island.

Powell said on Sunday the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over Congressional testimony, an action the Fed Chair called a “pretext” to further pressure the central bank into lowering rates. This sent the dollar and US equity futures lower.

Though Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast for Fed rate cuts on Sunday, it is now expecting two 25-basis-point reductions in June and September 2026 instead of the earlier anticipated moves in March and June.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during geopolitical or economic uncertainties.

“If things remain as they are, I think (silver) prices will be soon pushing towards $90/oz... while there is still policy uncertainty and now there are some restrictions from China of which we are (yet) to see the impact,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari.

Bangladesh Bank announced plans to issue the ‘Bangladesh Government Special Sukuk-1’, a Shariah-compliant bond worth Tk 100 billion (Tk 10,000 crore), to finance selected national infrastructure and welfare projects.Financial planning tools

The decision was finalised after meetings held last week by the central bank’s Shariah Advisory Committee under the Debt Management Department, which were presided over by Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Dr Md Kabir Ahmed.

According to the central bank, the Sukuk will have a tenure of 10 years and carry an annual profit rate of 9.75 percent.

The bond will be issued based on the ‘Ijarah’ (leasing) method, a Shariah-compliant financing structure approved by the committee.

Proceeds from the issuance will support seven housing projects for government employees constructed by the Public Works Department.

Besides, the funds will be used for specific rail services operated under Bangladesh Railway, underscoring the government’s focus on both housing and transport infrastructure.

The ‘Special Sukuk-1’ is scheduled for issuance on January 14, 2026, through a private placement in favour of Sammilito Islamic Bank PLC.

The Sukuk represents part of Bangladesh’s ongoing efforts to leverage Shariah-compliant financing instruments to fund public projects while providing investors with profit-generating opportunities that align with Islamic finance principles.

In a strategic move to bolster the nation’s export earnings, Bangladesh Bank (BB) has announced a comprehensive package of export incentives and cash assistance across 43 different sectors.

The Foreign Exchange Policy Department-1 on Monday issued a circular detailing the rates applicable for the 2025-2026 fiscal year.

The newly announced rates will apply to goods shipped between January 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026.

The primary objective of this initiative is to encourage growth in the country’s export trade.

According to the circular, applications for cash assistance must undergo audit by external auditors, following established guidelines.

This maximum 10% rate is allocated to sectors including diversified jute products, leather goods, processed agricultural products, potatoes, light engineering products, and 100% halal meat.

Software and IT-Enabled Services (ITES) exports are eligible for a 6% incentive, while individual freelancers in these sectors will receive 2.50%.

Local textile industries will receive 1.50% alternative cash assistance in lieu of duty drawback or bonded warehouse facilities.

Notably, exporters targeting the Eurozone will receive an additional 0.50%. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the garment sector are eligible for a 3.00% incentive.

Pharmaceutical products, motorcycles, photovoltaic modules, and ceramics are slated to receive 6%.

Accumulator batteries (HS codes 8507.10 and 8507.20) are granted a high incentive of 10%.

Bicycles and cement exports are set at 3.00%, while the tea industry will receive 2.00%.

The policy has also extended to institutions located in specialized zones. Entities within the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA), Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (BEPZA), and High-Tech Parks are eligible for incentives ranging from 0.50% to 2.00%, depending on the category of the goods and the nature of the industry.

This initiative reflects the government’s continued commitment to diversifying the export basket and maintaining competitiveness in the global market.

President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the US, as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Tariffs are paid by US importers of goods from those countries. Iran has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years.

"This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said without providing any further detail. Top export destinations for Iranian goods include China, the United Arab Emirates and India.

There was no official documentation from the White House of the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran's trading partners. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran, which had a 12-day war with US ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the US military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.

Trump has said the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran's opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment. US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people – 510 protesters and 89 security personnel – since the protests began on 28 December.

While air strikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, "diplomacy is always the first option for the president," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with US adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump's trade policy is under legal pressure as the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump's existing tariffs.

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producers group, exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank's most recent data.

Oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as a wave of supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday.

The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI, and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom at $54/50 in the last quarter as OECD inventories build up.

"Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth, barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts," Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were trading around $63 a barrel, as of 0412 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude holds ground at $59. Last year, both the benchmarks posted their worst annual performance since 2020, with an almost 20 percent decline.

US policymakers' focus on strong energy supply and relatively low oil prices will keep sustained oil price upside in check ahead of the midterms, analysts at the bank noted.

Prices are expected to gradually start recovering in 2027, with the market returning to a deficit as non-OPEC supply slows down and solid demand growth continues, Goldman analysts said in a note.
The investment bank expects Brent/WTI to average at $58/54 in 2027, although $5 lower than its prior estimate, citing upgrades to 2027 supply in the US, Venezuela and Russia by 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5mb/d, respectively.

Goldman said it expects a substantial price recovery later this decade as demand grows through 2040 after years of low long-cycle investment, with 2030–2035 Brent/WTI prices averaging $75/$71, $5 below its previous estimate.

Risks to the price forecasts are skewed modestly to the downside given a further increase in non-OPEC supply, Goldman said, adding that it expects no OPEC production cuts, despite geopolitical risks and low speculative positioning.

"We still recommend investors short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent time-spread to express the 2026 surplus view, and oil producers hedge 2026 price downside."

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a 25 percent tariff on any country trading with Iran, ramping up pressure on Tehran over its violent crackdown on a wave of protests.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said on Truth Social.

Iran's main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to the economic database Trading Economics.

The tariffs announcement comes as Trump mulls possible military action against Iran over the protests. Rights groups have reported a growing death toll.

"Air strikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said earlier Monday.

But she said Iran also had a diplomatic channel open to Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, adding that Iran was taking a "far different tone" in private than it was in its public statements.

A Japanese mining ship departed on Monday for a remote coral atoll to probe mud rich in rare earths, part of Tokyo's drive to curb its reliance on China for critical minerals as Beijing tightens supply.

The month-long mission of the test vessel Chikyu near Minamitori Island some 1,900 km (1,200 miles) southeast of Tokyo, will mark the world's first attempt to continuously lift rare-earth seabed sludge from 6 km (4 miles) deep onto a ship.

Japan, like its Western allies, has been reducing its dependence on China for the minerals vital to the production of cars, smartphones and military equipment, an effort that has taken on urgency amid a major diplomatic dispute with Beijing.

"After seven years of steady preparation, we can finally begin the confirmation tests. It's deeply moving," Shoichi Ishii, the head of the government-backed project told Reuters, as the vessel departed the port city of Shizuoka on a bright sunny day, with a snow-capped Mount Fuji in the background.

"If this project succeeds, it will be of great significance in diversifying Japan's rare earth resource procurement," he said, adding that recovering the key minerals from 6 km below sea level would be a major technological achievement.

The vessel, with 130 crew and researchers, is scheduled to return to the port on 14 February.

Reducing reliance on China won't be easy

Last week, China banned exports of items destined for Japan's military that have civilian and military uses, including some critical minerals. The Wall Street Journal reported Beijing has also begun restricting rare-earth exports to Japan more broadly.

Japan has condemned China's dual-use ban but declined to comment on the report of a broader ban, which China has not confirmed or denied. Chinese state media, though, have said Beijing was weighing the measure.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial powers will discuss rare-earth supplies at a meeting in Washington on Monday, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Japan is no stranger to facing China's wrath over rare earths. In 2010, China held back exports following an incident near disputed islands in the East China Sea.

Since then, Japan has reduced its reliance on China to 60% from 90% by investing in overseas projects like trading house Sojitz's tie-up with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, and promoting rare-earths recycling and manufacturing processes that rely less on the minerals.

The Minamitori Island project, however, is the first to attempt to source rare earths domestically.

"The fundamental solution is to be able to produce rare earths inside Japan," said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute.

"If this new round of export controls ends up covering a lot of rare earths, Japanese companies will again make efforts to move away from China, but I don't think it will be easy," he said.

For some heavy rare earths, such as those used for magnets in electric- and hybrid-vehicle motors, Japan is almost totally dependent on China, analysts say — a major risk for its key automotive industry.

Long-term project

Since the 2010 scare, the Japanese government and private companies have built stockpiles of the minerals, though they do not disclose volumes.

At a New Year's party for Japan's mining industry on Wednesday, several executives said they were better prepared than before to cope with the potential disruption, citing Japan's diversification efforts and stockpiles.

But Kazumi Nishikawa, principal director of economic security at the trade ministry, said the government had to continually remind companies to diversify their supply chains.

"Sometimes, you know, some event happened, then the business reacts, but the event finishes, the business forgets. We have to maintain continuous efforts," Nishikawa said on the China Talk podcast this week.

The Minamitori Island project, into which the government has sunk 40 billion yen ($250 million) since 2018, is also a long-term play.

Its estimated reserves have not been disclosed and no production target has been set. But if it succeeds, a full-scale mining trial will be conducted in February 2027.

Mining the mud was previously viewed as uneconomical due to high costs. But if supply disruption from China continues and buyers become willing to pay higher prices, the project could become viable in coming years, said Kotaro Shimizu, principal analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.

China is keeping a close watch. When the ship was conducting surveys around the island in June last year, a fleet of Chinese naval ships sailed nearby, Ishii said.

"We feel a strong sense of crisis that such intimidating actions were taken," he said. China said its actions were in line with international law and called on Japan to "refrain from hyping up threats".

Health and education sectors have taken the major brunt of a sizeable cut in the current development budget halfway through the fiscal year.

The ongoing Annual Development Programme (ADP) outlay for the fiscal year 2025-26 has been cut by 13.04 per cent to Tk 2.0 trillion.

With Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus in the chair, the National Economic Council (NEC) in its meeting Monday endorsed the pared-down RADP.

The size of the RADP has been reduced by Tk 300 billion from the original ADP allocation of Tk 2.30 trillion, Planning Adviser Professor Wahiduddin Mahmud told journalists.

In the trimming meant to make two ends meet, the health sector emerged as the hardest hit by the fiscal tightening. The government has withdrawn approximately Tk 134.29 billion from the original allocation, representing a staggering 73-percent cut.

The allocation for healthcare services plummeted from an original Tk 181.48 billion to a mere Tk 47.18 billion in the RADP following the deepest cut.

Health Services Division saw its budget slashed by 73 per cent while Health Education and Family Welfare Division faced a 77-percent reduction.

Major initiatives like the establishment of cancer, kidney, and heart-treatment centres in eight divisional cities and the construction of 500-bed medical college hospitals in Jashore, Cox's Bazar and Pabna may face delays or downsizing, Planning Commission officials said.

They cited "poor implementation capacity" and a "shortage of projects" as the primary reasons for withdrawing over Tk 130 billion from the sector.

Another priority sector, education, is not spared, too. Its development budget slashed by approximately 35 per cent or roughly Tk 100 billion, bringing the final figure down to about Tk 185 billion. Secondary and higher education specifically witnessed a 55-percent cut.

Prof Mahmud explains the budgetary arithmetic that determines the revised allocations. "Health and education sectors have been passing through a transition from the sectoral development-programme approach to project-based approach."

Furthermore, transport and communications sector-traditionally the highest recipient of funds-saw a 35-percent reduction. A notable feature here is the Airport-Kamalapur MRT Line-1 project faced a drastic 90-percent cut after implementing agencies failed to submit fund demand.

The highest government economic body approved cut in the allocations from government funds by Tk 160 billion (11.11 per cent) while foreign loans and grants by Tk 140 billion or 16.27 per cent.

Government funding has been reduced from Tk1.44 billion to Tk1.28 billion (64 per cent), while allocations from foreign loans and grants have been cut from Tk 860 billion to Tk720 billion (36 per cent).

Officials at the commission say demands from ministries and divisions are also lower in the revised ADP.

According to officials, the lower RADP demand is mainly due to slow implementation during the current fiscal year that witnesses spillover impacts of political upheavals surrounding the upsurge and election frays.

They say many projects are progressing slowly because of the absence of project directors and delays in appointing new ones.

The government is also reviewing several large projects, which has led to reduced allocation demands for many projects.

Additionally, as the current year is an election year, ministries and divisions have shown relatively lower demand for allocations.

According to Planning Commission data, the transport and communications sector has received the highest allocation of Tk385.09 billion, or 19.25 per cent of the total RADP.

Power and energy sector received the second-highest allocation of Tk 261.86 billion, or 13.09 per cent of the total RADP allocations.

Other major allocations include housing and community amenities with Tk227.30 billion (11.36 per cent) education with Tk 185.50 billion (9.27 per cent), and local government and rural development with Tk 15143 billion (7.57 per cent).

Social-protection sector has also faced a substantial fund cut. While Tk 20.18 billion was allocated in the original ADP, the RADP reduced the sum by 73 per cent to Tk 5.45 billion.

Planning Commission sources say allocations to the power sector have been reduced by 19 per cent, while the agriculture sector has seen a 21 per cent cut.

Among ministries and divisions, the Local Government Division (LGD) received the highest allocation, amounting to Tk375.34 billion, or 18.77 per cent of the total RADP. Its allocation is 4.0-percent lower than in the original ADP.

The Road Transport and Highways Division received the second-highest allocation of Tk 199.49 billion (9.97 per cent), although allocation got reduced by 38 per cent compared to the original ADP.

Power Division ranks third, with an allocation of Tk148.96 billion (7.45 per cent), reflecting a 27-percent reduction from the original ADP.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has received Tk120.29 billion (6.0 per cent), followed by the Ministry of Water Resources with Tk 105.32 billion, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education with Tk 80.54 billion, and the Secondary and Higher Education Division with Tk61.90 billion.

A total of Tk 301.59 billion has been allocated under development assistance for special needs.

In addition, Tk 31 billion has been allocated for five development-assistance items under the Local Government Division, Tk5.30 billion for the Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs and Tk1.00 billion for special areas.

Besides, the NEC allocated Tk 89.35 billion for projects implemented by autonomous bodies and corporations through their own financing. Including these self-financed projects, the total size of the RADP stands at Tk 2.089 trillion.

The revised development budget holds a total of 1,330 projects, including 1,108 investment projects, 35 feasibility studies, 121 technical-assistance projects and 66 self-financed projects.

Planning officials say the revised ADP includes 664 new unapproved projects for implementation with government financing, 157 new unapproved projects aimed at facilitating foreign financing and 35 projects to be implemented by autonomous bodies or corporations through their own financing.

A total of 286 projects have been earmarked for completion under the RADP.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has been recommended as the licensing authority for microcredit banks by the technical committee working on the draft ordinance containing regulations for these institutions.

The draft Microcredit Bank Ordinance 2025, unveiled by the Financial Institutions Division (FID), had named the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA) as the licensing body.

However, industry leaders opposed the proposal, warning that it would create a dual licensing system with BB being the regulator for banking institutions in general.

The Daily Star has seen the recommendations by the review panel.

It also recommended doubling the minimum paid-up capital requirement for a microcredit bank to Tk 200 crore and authorised capital to Tk 500 crore from the previous Tk 300 crore.

Changes were proposed in board composition as well. The original draft suggested three directors from borrower-shareholders, three from other shareholders, and the managing director as a board member.

The review committee recommended a new structure with four borrower-shareholder directors, three from other shareholders, two independent directors nominated by the licensing authority, and a non-voting managing director.

The Bangladesh Bank will also have the authority to remove directors or reconstruct the entire board – powers not included in the original draft.

Another key change concerns liquidation. Liquidation of microcredit banks will now follow the provisions of the Bank Company Act, reversing the draft’s proposal that excluded them from this law.

The review comes following debates over licensing authority, profit motives, and other governance issues, prompting the government to form an eleven-member technical review committee led by Sayed Kutub, additional secretary of the FID.

The original draft had envisioned microcredit banks combining the outreach of microfinance organisations with commercial banking services, offering products ranging from savings accounts to agricultural loans without requiring collateral.

It proposed that microfinance banks would operate as social institutions, prioritising support for new entrepreneurs and providing loans either in cash or other forms for a wide range of economic activities.