News

Risky, loss-making stocks surge as speculative buying lifts market
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) saw a moderate rise yesterday (14 January), driven largely by sharp price hikes in several risky and loss-making stocks, raising concerns among market participants about speculative activity overshadowing fundamentals.

The benchmark DSEX advanced 19 points, or 0.40%, to close at 4,966, while the blue-chip DS30 index gained 9 points to settle at 1,908. Despite the positive index movement, overall trading activity weakened, with turnover slipping 4% to Tk369 crore.

Market observers noted that the day's rally was heavily influenced by aggressive buying in financially weak companies, many of which have a history of losses, poor governance, or regulatory challenges.

Shares of FAS Finance and Peoples Leasing topped the gainers' chart after hitting the upper circuit, while Prime Finance and Fareast Finance also posted near double-digit gains. BD Welding and BD Thai Food joined the rally, continuing a recent trend where low-priced and high-risk stocks attract short-term traders seeking quick gains.

Analysts said such price movements are largely detached from company fundamentals and are often fuelled by speculative positioning than by any meaningful improvement in earnings prospects or balance-sheet strength.

Notably, several of the top gainers came from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) segment, which has been under prolonged pressure due to weak asset quality, liquidity constraints and, in some cases, regulatory action.

Despite these challenges, their share prices surged as retail investors chased momentum amid a lack of clear direction in fundamentally strong stocks.

In contrast, a number of companies faced selling pressure, with Bangladesh Industrial Finance Co Ltd (BIFC) leading the losers after shedding the maximum allowed limit. Shares of Shyampur Sugar, Bay Leasing, HR Textile and Meghna Cement also declined notably.

Turnover concentration remained limited to a handful of stocks, with ACI, Square Pharmaceuticals, City Bank, Orion Infusion, Dominage Steel and Saiham Textile featuring among the most traded issues.

However, traders pointed out that broader market participation remained subdued, as institutional investors stayed largely on the sidelines.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange mirrored the positive sentiment, with its CSCX index rising 21 points to close at 8,612, while the CASPI index added 30 points to finish at 13,915. Turnover at the port city bourse stood at Tk8.59 crore.

Apex Tannery to set up own ETP at cost of Tk12cr
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Apex Tannery, a listed leather goods manufacturer, has decided to set up an in-house effluent treatment plant (ETP) at a cost of Tk12 crore to meet regulatory requirements and comply with the environmental standards demanded by international buyers.

The company made the decision at a recent board meeting and disclosed it through the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) website.

Although Apex Tannery had earlier obtained approval to establish its own ETP at its factory premises in the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation Savar Leather Industrial Estate, it is now moving forward with the investment.

Currently, there is a central effluent treatment plant (CETP) at the Savar tannery estate, but due to its technical limitations and inability to treat the full volume of liquid waste generated by all factories, some entrepreneurs have taken steps to set up their own ETPs to support business operations.

According to the disclosure, Apex Tannery's in-house ETP will include a chrome recovery plant and a sewerage treatment plant, and will be built on an area of approximately 12,000 to 15,000 square feet. The facility will be designed to treat effluent generated at all stages of production – from wet blue to finished leather.

The decision comes at a time when Apex Tannery has been struggling financially.

According to its latest financial statements, the company has been incurring losses for three consecutive fiscal years since FY23. Due to the continued losses, the company did not declare any dividend for its shareholders.

The company remained in a loss-making position in the first quarter of the current fiscal year as well. During the July-September period, its revenue edged up to Tk13.97 crore from Tk12.91 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal year, but it still incurred a loss of Tk7.59 crore, with a loss per share of Tk4.98.

Today, the company's shares closed at Tk59.90 each on the DSE, up 4.90% from the previous session.

 

BSEC okays draft prospectuses of three closed-end mutual funds
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has approved the draft prospectuses of three closed-end mutual funds, with a combined target size of Tk75 crore, marking a fresh boost for the capital market amid a slowdown in new product launches.

The approval was given at a commission meeting held at the regulator's office yesterday, according to a press release.

The approved funds are Midland Bank Growth Fund, Midland Bank Balanced Fund, and the Shariah-based Sandhani AML SLFL Shariah Fund.

Market participants have welcomed the move, describing it as a positive signal at a time when the introduction of new investment products in the capital market has remained sluggish.

According to the press release, the initial target size of the Midland Bank Growth Fund has been set at Tk25 crore. As the sponsor, Midland Bank PLC has invested Tk2.5 crore in the fund, while the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be raised from general investors. The fund's unit face value has been fixed at Tk10.

Midland Bank Asset Management Company Limited will act as the asset manager of the fund. Sandhani Life Insurance Company Limited will serve as the trustee, while Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the custodian.

At the same meeting, the commission also approved the draft prospectus and abridged version of the Midland Bank Balanced Fund. The fund's initial target size has also been set at Tk25 crore. Midland Bank PLC, as the sponsor, will contribute Tk2.5 crore, and the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be offered to general investors. The unit face value of the fund has been fixed at Tk10.

Midland Bank Asset Management Company Limited will serve as the asset manager, while Sandhani Life Insurance Company Limited and Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the trustee and custodian, respectively.

In addition, the commission approved the draft prospectus of the Shariah-based closed-end mutual fund Sandhani AML SLFL Shariah Fund. The fund's initial target size has been set at Tk25 crore. The sponsor, Sandhani Life Finance Limited, will invest Tk2.5 crore, while the remaining Tk22.5 crore will be raised from general investors. The unit face value of the fund has also been fixed at Tk10.

Sandhani Asset Management Limited will act as the asset manager of the fund. Bangladesh General Insurance Company PLC will serve as the trustee, and Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC will act as the custodian.

Market insiders said the approval of three closed-end mutual funds at a single meeting could help channel fresh long-term funds into the capital market. Mutual funds are widely regarded by investors as relatively safer, professionally managed investment vehicles, particularly for long-term investment.

The approval of a Shariah-based fund is also expected to create new opportunities for investors seeking Islamic investment products.

Depositors of 5 Islamic banks won't receive profit for 2024–2025: Governor
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Depositors of five troubled Islamic banks will not receive any profit on their deposits for the years 2024 and 2025, following a decision approved by Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur.

Bangladesh Bank issued the directive to the concerned banks today (14 January) after the governor's approval.

Confirming the matter to The Business Standard, the governor said that depositors of these troubled banks would not be paid profit for the two years due to the institutions' poor financial condition.

"These banks were merged because of their weak financial health. Under the current circumstances, this decision has been taken," the governor said.

The five banks affected are Social Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank, EXIM Bank, Union Bank, and Global Islami Bank. Their assets, liabilities, and manpower are being taken over by the newly formed Sammilito Islami Bank PLC. Once the merger process is completed, the five banks will gradually be dissolved, according to the central bank.

In a letter sent by the Bank Resolution Department to the five banks yesterday, Bangladesh Bank said that, to ensure uniform implementation of the Resolution Scheme, all deposit account balances would be recalculated based on their position as of 28 December 2025.

The recalculation will assume no profit on all deposits from 1 January 2024 to 28 December 2025.

The letter further stated that any haircut on deposits would be applied in line with the approved decision, and the final deposit balances would be determined accordingly.

Banks have been instructed to complete the recalculation process as quickly as possible to facilitate the smooth implementation of the Resolution Scheme.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said audits had found that the five banks did not generate any profit over the past two years, prompting the decision not to pay profit to depositors.

Last year, Bangladesh Bank finalised the Bank Resolution Scheme 2025 for the newly formed Sammilito Islami Bank PLC, created by merging the five crisis-hit Shariah-based banks. The scheme outlines specific steps and timelines for repaying depositors' funds as part of the resolution process.

3 top govt officials appointed at Biman board
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The interim government has appointed three key officials of the administration to the Board of Directors of Biman Bangladesh Airlines Limited.

The new appointees are National Security Adviser (NSA) Dr Khalilur Rahman, Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser Faiz Ahmad Taiyeb, and Senior Secretary of the Election Commission (EC) Secretariat Akhtar Ahmed.

A gazette notification was issued in this regard by the Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism yesterday (15 January). The order, issued by the president's command and signed by the ministry's Senior Assistant Secretary Mst Shakila Pervin, stated that the appointments were made under Section 30(b) of the Bangladesh Biman Act, 2023.

The order comes into effect immediately in the "public interest," according to the notification.

ADP spending drops to Tk41,877cr in H1 FY26, lowest in eight years
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Spending under the Annual Development Programme (ADP) stood at Tk41,876.88 crore during the first six months of the fiscal year 2025–26, from July to December, marking the lowest level in the past eight fiscal years.

The ADP spending in the first half of the current fiscal year was even lower than the same period of the fiscal year 2024–25, when ministries and divisions spent Tk50,002 crore despite political unrest, the fall of the government and administrative instability.

Compared with the first six months of the previous fiscal year, ADP spending in the current fiscal year has declined by Tk8,125 crore.

ADP spending during the first six months of the fiscal year 2023–24 stood at Tk61,739.69 crore.

The information was revealed in a report published today by the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED).

ADP implementation rate remains weak

According to IMED data, 17.54% of the total ADP allocation for the current fiscal year was spent in the first six months. The rate was 17.97% in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In the first half of the fiscal years 2023–24 and 2022–23, ADP implementation rates stood at 22.48% and 23.53% respectively, IMED said.

In the current fiscal year, the total ADP allocation, including funds for autonomous bodies, was Tk2,38,695.64 crore.

Contractors yet to return after political transition

Officials of the IMED said that during July–August of the previous fiscal year, the country went through mass student protests that led to the fall of the Awami League government.

They said development activities had almost come to a halt during that period. However, officials said ADP implementation was expected to return to a normal pace this year. In reality, no such momentum has yet been seen.

IMED officials said many contractors who left project sites after the fall of the previous government have not returned, largely due to political reasons. As a result, work on many projects remains stalled.

They also said construction work on several projects was delayed due to the approval process under the new public procurement rules, which has affected overall ADP implementation.

Planning adviser cites structural bottlenecks

After a meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) on Monday, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud explained the slow pace of ADP implementation and the reduction in the size of the revised ADP at a press conference.

He said several structural issues were behind the slowdown. "After the change in government last year, many project directors could not be found, while some stepped aside following corruption allegations. Appointing new project directors also took time," he said.

The planning adviser said many projects had to be revised, which delayed the resumption of work. "Ministries and divisions took time to move forward with tenders under the newly approved government procurement rules," he added.

Due to these factors, project implementation slowed, and demand for allocations under the revised ADP also declined, he said.

Stricter project approval slows implementation

Wahiduddin Mahmud said the interim government has introduced stricter conditions for approving new projects.

"Project authorities are now required to submit progress and quality reports at regular intervals, while large construction projects must undergo mid-term reviews by independent experts," he said.

As a result, he said, the pace of implementation has slowed to some extent.

The planning adviser said several projects have had their development project proposals revised, reducing costs by between Tk1,000 crore and Tk3,000–4,000 crore without affecting project effectiveness.

"A cautious approach has been adopted in some cases. For projects such as Payra Port and the metro rail, it was considered reasonable to move forward in phases after reviewing performance and past experience," he said.

Revised ADP approved earlier than usual

Wahiduddin Mahmud said recent political instability has also affected implementation, while lower demand for funds under the ADP reflected the slower pace of work.

"Meanwhile, due to the decline in ADP implementation in the current fiscal year, the government has moved ahead with revising the ADP earlier than usual," he said.

In a normal fiscal year, revisions to the ADP are finalised in February or March. Considering the situation, the government finalised the revised ADP in January this year, he added.

At a meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) on Monday, the government approved a revised Annual Development Programme (RADP) for the current fiscal year after cutting the original allocation by 13.04%.

Under the revised plan, the ADP allocation was set at Tk2,00,000 crore, which is Tk30,000 crore less than the original ADP allocation. Including projects funded from the government's own resources, the total size of the revised annual development programme (RADP) now stands at Tk208,935.53 crore.

Smaller ADP, lower spending in taka terms

Former planning secretary Md Mamun-Al-Rashid told The Business Standard that the overall size of the ADP in the current fiscal year is slightly smaller than last year.

"Because the size of the ADP is smaller this year, even if the implementation rate remains similar, the amount of money spent will naturally be lower," he said.

He said development activities tend to slow down in election periods, and the current situation reflects that pattern.

"At the moment, almost everything is election-focused. As a result, development activities have slowed, which is clearly visible," he said. "The biggest negative impact of this slowdown is on employment, as development projects create large-scale job opportunities and have strong multiplier effects on the economy."

He said special measures should be taken in the remaining months of the fiscal year to speed up ADP implementation.

Health, rail, roads among slowest implementers

Meanwhile, an IMED report showed that Tk23,599 crore was spent from government funds in the first six months of the fiscal year, accounting for 16.39% of the allocation.

In the same period of the previous fiscal year, spending from government funds stood at Tk26,130 crore, or 15.84% of the allocation, the report said.

During the July–December period of the current fiscal year, Tk15,981 crore was spent from foreign loans and grants, which accounts for 18.58% of the allocation. In the same period of the previous fiscal year, spending from foreign sources stood at Tk19,609 crore, or 19.61%.

In the first six months of the current fiscal year, Tk2,297 crore was spent from the own funds of implementing agencies. In the same period last year, spending from agencies' own funds amounted to Tk4,264 crore.

In the current fiscal year, 15 ministries and divisions received 74.56% of the total ADP allocation. Overall ADP implementation largely depends on the progress of projects under these ministries and divisions.

Among the ministries and divisions with the highest allocations, ADP implementation remained low in several sectors during the first six months. The implementation rate stood at 2.33% for the Health Education and Family Welfare Division and 6.11% for the Health Services Division.

During the same period, the Railways Ministry spent 9.79% of its allocation. The Roads and Highways Division spent 12%, the Secondary and Higher Education Division 13.22%, the Power Division 16.96%, the Primary and Mass Education Ministry 17.98%, and the Shipping Ministry 18.82%.

Among the top allocation recipients, the Ministry of Science and Technology recorded the highest ADP implementation rate at 35.81%. The Water Resources Ministry implemented 31.17% of its allocation, while the Local Government Division recorded an implementation rate of 30.65%.

Other ministries showed moderate progress, with the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry implementing 27.69% of its allocation, the Bridges Division 23.13%, the Housing and Public Works Ministry 23%, and the Agriculture Ministry 19.97%.

NBR Chairman signals possible VAT, turnover tax reforms for jewellery businesses
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan indicated that the government may reconsider the current VAT and turnover tax system for the country's jewellery businesses, stressing the need for fair taxation and better sectoral discipline.

"If VAT is properly applied on value addition with full input tax credit, the effective burden should not be excessive," he said at a Meet the Business programme with Bangladesh Jewellery Samity (BAJUS) organised by the NBR today (14 January).

The NBR chairman also said that arbitrary rates discourage compliance and are difficult to enforce.

He invited the sector to propose a rational formula for VAT based on value addition, assuring that the NBR is willing to amend laws accordingly, possibly in the next finance act.

Similar flexibility, he said, could be considered for the existing 1% minimum turnover tax if a transparent and reliable recording mechanism is introduced.

He agreed in principle with traders that imposing VAT on the full sales value of high-value products like gold ornaments is unreasonable, as the real value addition lies mainly in labour or making charges.

The NBR Chairman said restoring discipline in the country's jewellery sector is crucial for ensuring better revenue collection, strengthening rule of law and safeguarding the long-term sustainability of the industry.

"We believe businesses should do business and our responsibility is to make their path easier, provide cooperation and ensure transparency," the NBR chief said.

He said that the jewellery sector though one of the oldest trades in the country has long remained outside a disciplined and formal framework.

He said gold is not just a commodity but is deeply linked to people's emotions, social security and financial safety. "Yet, despite various policy initiatives over the years, the sector has failed to move fully into the formal economy."

Recalling past reforms, the NBR Chairman said Bangladesh had gradually moved from an era of complete restrictions on gold imports to a formal import policy including reduced taxes and fixed duties for passenger-carried and commercial imports.

Official records still show negligible formal gold imports despite the market being well supplied, he said.

"This gap between records and reality is a major obstacle to establishing financial discipline, the rule of law and overall governance," he said.

Smuggling and informal practices harm not only revenue collection but also expose traders to serious financial and legal risks.

Rejecting the argument that Bangladesh needs more time to establish discipline because it is a young country, he pointed to examples like Singapore, which prioritised the rule of law and discipline from the very beginning.

Khan said NBR wants to move towards full, real-time transaction recording to eliminate suspicion on both sides.

"We are ready to develop simple, sector-specific digital software for jewellery traders, especially small shops, so that real transactions are recorded, and the real picture emerges," he said.

Once accounts are transparent and verifiable, the need for presumptive or turnover-based taxes will gradually disappear, allowing income tax to be assessed strictly on actual profits or losses.

On import facilitation, the NBR chairman said greater openness and competition would help restore discipline.

He assured that issues related to import licensing, LC opening and banking procedures could be taken up with Bangladesh Bank and the Ministry of Commerce, urging traders to submit formal proposals.

He also reaffirmed the fundamental principle of duty drawback for exporters, stating that exporters are entitled to refunds of duties paid on imported raw materials used for exports. Any practical bottlenecks in audit or verification, he said, would be reviewed to ensure legitimate exporters are not deprived.

Calling for collective responsibility, the NBR chief said discipline in the jewellery sector is essential not only for revenue but also to protect lives, livelihoods and future generations from the dangers associated with illegal trade.

Shipping Corporation should maintain profitable status, expand fleet: Yunus
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC) must remain a strong and profitable institution, stressing the need to expand its fleet and further strengthen its financial capacity, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus said.

"BSC should maintain the profitable status it has achieved in recent years. Future plans should focus on strengthening the institution through its own income and expanding the fleet by adding new ships," he said while speaking at a cheque handover ceremony at the State Guest House Jamuna today (14 January).

Yunus said the addition of more ships to the BSC fleet would boost morale among sailors and create new employment opportunities.

He also emphasised retaining instructors at marine academies with appropriate honorariums to ensure the production of world-class seafarers.

Plans are underway to acquire several ships, including four new large vessels (mother vessels) from China on a government-to-government (G2G) basis, according to the Chief Adviser's Press Wing.

The BSC earned the highest-ever profit of Tk306.56 crore in the last fiscal year, generating around Tk800 crore in revenue, an unprecedented achievement in its 54-year history.

The Press Wing said that the five ships added to the fleet under the recent project have played a significant role in BSC's continued progress.

Following the chief adviser's directives, BSC has already taken steps to acquire additional vessels.

The first ship, Banglar Pragati, acquired under the corporation's self-financed two bulk carrier project, was delivered and deployed in trade on 28 October 2025 and the second ship, Banglar Navajatra, is scheduled for delivery on 30 January 2026.

Meanwhile, the process of acquiring two MR product oil tankers with government funding and one Ultramax bulk carrier with private funding is ongoing.

At the ceremony, the chief adviser received a cheque amounting to Tk203.47 crore, representing dividends declared for the fiscal year 2024–2025 and instalments payable under the Subsidiary Loan Agreement (SLA) for repayment of loans taken for six ship-purchase projects implemented by BSC under the Ministry of Shipping.

Shipping Adviser M Sakhawat Hossain and BSC Managing Director Commodore Mahmudul Malek handed over the cheque.

Commodore Mahmudul Malek said that a Loan Agreement (LA) was signed on 14 October 2016, between the Government of Bangladesh (Economic Relations Division) and the Government of China (China Exim Bank) for the project titled "Purchase of Six New Ships."

The project included the acquisition of three product oil tankers of approximately 39,000 DWT each and three bulk carriers on a G2G basis for BSC.

The principal loan amount was 1,199,999,070 yuan, equivalent to Tk1,457.68 crore.

Subsequently, a Subsidiary Loan Agreement (SLA) was signed between the Finance Division and BSC on 27 October 2024, to facilitate loan repayment.

Under this agreement, BSC will pay a total of Tk2,425.02 crore to the Government of Bangladesh over a period of 13 years.

As per the SLA, the total interest amount accrued during the grace period stood at Tk475.25 crore, for which a cheque was officially handed over to the chief adviser on 26 November 2024.

After a gap of 27 years without any new ship procurement, six commercial vessels were added to the BSC fleet during the 2018–19 period.

Of these, five vessels, MV Banglar Joyjatra, MV Banglar Arjan, MT Banglar Agrajatra, MT Banglar Agradut, and MT Banglar Agragati, are currently engaged in international commercial cargo operations and proudly flying the national flag of Bangladesh.

Ramadan import rush leaves lighter vessels in short supply
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

An unusually high number of mother vessels carrying food imports has created congestion at Chattogram port’s outer anchorages, causing a severe shortage of lighter vessels and delaying the unloading of cargo.

In recent weeks, the shortage of lighter vessels has worsened. Mother ships carrying commodities such as wheat, lentils, chickpeas, raw sugar, and edible oil are now overstaying at anchorages for 10-20 days.

Big traders in the port city said many businesses rushed to ship in food items this year ahead of Ramadan, taking advantage of relaxed import rules and improved dollar stocks. Seasonal importers without their own storage facilities are either taking longer to move goods into the supply chain or leaving cargo on the lighter vessels for extended periods.

“Most of the Ramadan stocks have already been imported and moved to the supply chain,” said Satyajit Das Barman, head of business (Grains and Logistics) at TK Group, a major Chattogram-based conglomerate.

As of yesterday, over 90 mother vessels were at Chattogram and Kutubdia anchorages, almost double the usual 40-50. More than half are carrying food commodities, while the remainder transport industrial raw materials such as cement clinker, slag, limestone, ball clay, scrap, coal, and fertiliser.

Shipping agents said many ships are receiving fewer lighter vessels than required, with some left without any allocation on certain days.

At its latest berthing meeting on Tuesday, the Bangladesh Water Transport Coordinating Cell (BWTCC) could allocate only 59 lighter vessels to the same number of mother ships, leaving at least 30 large vessels without any unloading support.

Cargo agents usually need three to four lighter vessels to unload one mother ship in a day, but the authorities can now provide only one or none for many ships.

The backlog is already pushing up costs. MV Pacific Jesmin, carrying 58,955 tonnes of raw sugar, arrived at the outer anchorage on December 30. Only 27,000 tonnes had been unloaded by yesterday.

Belayet Hossain, proprietor of the ship’s local agent Litmond Shipping, said, “If enough vessels were allocated, the ship could finish unloading in 10-12 days, but now it may need to stay for another 12 days.”

Another vessel under the same agent, MV Ince Kastamon, carrying 55,000 tonnes of wheat imported by Abul Khair Group, arrived on January 7 but received one lighter vessel for unloading only during Tuesday’s berthing meeting.

Hossain said the ship may take a month to complete unloading, with demurrage adding over $20,000 a day to import costs.

BWTCC Convener Shafiq Ahmed said 631 lighter vessels transporting imported cargo from Chattogram are currently at 50 different destinations across the country. Many, including 143 carrying government-imported fertiliser, were allocated 20-25 days ago and remain stuck. About 300 vessels are still navigating the waterways.

Delays at unloading points are compounded by labour shortages and a lack of storage bags, especially for fertiliser. “The main reason for the crisis is the arrival of a large number of mother vessels at the same time ahead of Ramadan,” Ahmed said.

Previously, BWTCC supervised 1,400 lighter vessels moving imported cargo from the outer anchorage to 59 destinations across the country.

Parvez Ahmed, a leader of the Inland Vessels Owners Association of Chattogram, said over 300 vessels shifted to Mongla, Payra, and Indian coastal routes in the past year due to higher rates and declining trade in Chattogram.

China ends 2025 with record $1.2tn trade surplus despite Trump tariffs
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

China on Wednesday reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-US markets as producers ​looked to build global scale to fend off sustained pressure from the Trump administration.


A push by policymakers for Chinese firms to diversify beyond the world’s top consumer market by shifting ‌focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America paid dividends, cushioning the economy against US tariffs and intensifying trade, technology and geopolitical frictions since President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year.

“China’s economy remains extraordinarily competitive,” said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “While this reflects gains in productivity and the rising technological sophistication of Chinese manufacturers, it is also due to weak domestic demand and attendant excess capacity.”

Heading into 2026, the challenges for Beijing are aplenty, including deflecting concerns from an increasing number of global capitals about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, as well as their overreliance on key Chinese products.

One of the key questions facing policymakers is for how long the $19 trillion economy ‌can continue to counteract a property slump and sluggish domestic demand by shipping ever cheaper goods to other markets.

“Rising Chinese trade surpluses could raise tensions with ​trade partners, especially those reliant on manufacturing exports themselves,” Neumann said.

The manufacturing juggernaut’s full-year trade surplus came in at $1.189 trillion - a figure on par with the GDP of a top-20 economy globally like Saudi Arabia - customs data showed on Wednesday, having broken the trillion-dollar ceiling for the first time in November.

“With more diversified trading partners, (China’s) ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced,” Wang Jun, a vice minister at China’s customs administration, said ‍at a press briefing following the data release.

Outbound shipments from the world’s second-biggest economy grew 6.6 percent in value terms year-on-year in December, compared with a 5.9 percent increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.0 percent increase.

Imports were up 5.7 percent, after a 1.9 percent bump the month earlier and also beat a forecast for a 0.9 percent uptick.

“Strong export growth helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“Combined with the booming stock market and stable US-China relations, the government is likely to keep the macro policy stance unchanged at least in Q1.”

China’s yuan , held steady following the upbeat data even as equity ‍investors welcomed the forecast-beating numbers. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index and blue-chip CSI300 index both rose more than 1 percent in morning deals.

The Asian powerhouse economy’s monthly trade surpluses exceeded $100 billion seven times last year, partially underpinned by a weakened yuan, up ‌from just ‌once in 2024, underscoring that Trump’s actions have barely dented China’s broader trade with the wider world even if he has curbed US-bound shipments.

Exports to the US slumped 20 percent in dollar terms in 2025, while imports from the world’s top economy were down 14.6 percent. Chinese factories managed to make inroads in other markets, with exports to Africa jumping 25.8 percent and those to the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations up 13.4 percent. EU-bound shipments grew 8.4 percent.

China’s rare-earth exports in 2025 surged to their highest level since at least 2014, even as Beijing began curbing shipments of several medium to heavy elements from April - a move analysts saw as an effort to showcase its leverage over Washington while negotiators wrangled over soybean purchases, a potential Boeing aircraft deal and the ​fate of TikTok’s US operations.

The world’s top agricultural importer purchased a record volume of soybeans in 2025, buoyed by a sharp increase in shipments from South America, with Chinese buyers holding off from US crops for much of the year as trade tensions lingered.

Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well ‍as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics.

Beijing, however, has shown signs of recognising it must moderate its industrial largesse if it is to sustain its success, and address the image problem outsized exports are causing.

Last week, it scrapped subsidy-like export tax rebates for its solar industry, a long-standing point of friction with EU states.

The Trump challenge to China is not going away in a hurry either, analysts note, even as the US Supreme Court could rule against the president’s tariff hikes later ​on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Trump said he thinks China can open its markets to American goods, after threatening a day earlier to slap ‍a 25 percent tariff on countries that trade with Iran, risking reopening old wounds with Beijing, Tehran’s biggest trading partner.

“Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran underscores the potential for renewed trade tensions between the US and China,” said Zichun ​Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

Govt to import LPG to stabilise market, 'curb private sector dependence'
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The government is planning to import liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) through the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to stabilise the domestic market and protect consumers from artificial shortages and price volatility.

The BPC has already sought approval to import LPG on a government-to-government (G2G) basis, sending a letter to the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources on 10 January.

Speaking to The Business Standard yesterday, Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan confirmed the plan and said the government would allow the BPC to import LPG under G2G arrangements to reduce the country's heavy dependence on the private sector for meeting domestic demand.

BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan said importing LPG from the same international suppliers that provide fuel oil to Bangladesh would help create a more competitive and stable market environment.

Meanwhile, private sector operators have also welcomed the initiative, saying it could help ease supply constraints if BPC imports LPG at lower prices and supplies it to private operators.

Private operators dominate market

Currently, LPG import and distribution in Bangladesh is entirely controlled by the private sector. There is no system for direct LPG imports by the government or the BPC.

As a result, when artificial shortages or supply disruptions occur, the government has limited capacity to intervene effectively and stabilise the market.

Bangladesh's annual LPG demand is around 17 lakh tonnes and is rising every year. Industry insiders estimate that demand could increase to between 25 lakh and 30 lakh tonnes by 2030.

At present, BPC meets only about 1.33% of domestic demand. This small volume is produced as a by-product during crude oil processing at the Eastern Refinery.

The government's move follows a recent intensification of LPG shortages in the domestic market.

Despite holding several meetings with traders, the government was unable to take effective steps to resolve the crisis. Instead, traders placed various demands, including tax relief, before the authorities.

Fouzul Kabir told TBS that BPC would be authorised to import LPG under G2G arrangements if its existing foreign fuel suppliers are willing to supply LPG.

"Through this, the government will be able to play an effective role in stabilising the LPG market and breaking syndicates," he said.

Azam J Chowdhury, former president of the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh and chairman of East Coast Group, described the proposal as a positive step.

"It would be very good if BPC imports LPG at lower prices under G2G arrangements. The current LPG supply is low," he said.

He noted, however, that BPC does not have LPG storage facilities and suggested that imported LPG should be supplied to private operators after import.

Infrastructure constraints

In its letter to the energy ministry, BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan said the corporation lacks the necessary infrastructure for LPG storage and unloading, including jetty-based pipelines, flow meters and storage tanks.

He noted that private LPG operators currently unload LPG from carrier vessels through lighter ships in the deep-sea area of Kutubdia and store it at their own terminals.

BPC, he said, could adopt the same method by using lighter vessels of interested private operators to unload and distribute imported LPG.

He suggested that, in consultation with the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh, a list of interested operators could be prepared, along with decisions on import volumes, payment methods, and unloading and distribution processes.

Officials at the Energy Division said at a meeting held on 7 January, chaired by the division's secretary, the issue of importing LPG through BPC and supplying it to private companies was reviewed, and a decision was taken to send a proposal to the ministry.

The BPC, in its letter, further noted that in the past it has imported additional fuel oil by seeking quotations from enlisted G2G suppliers when there was a sudden rise in demand or a supply shortage.

"In the same way, since our listed G2G suppliers are large refiners capable of producing and supplying various petroleum products, including LPG, it is possible to assess the feasibility of importing LPG by seeking quotations from them," the corporation said.

BPC also said it would explore other potential sources in the international market before selecting the most suitable option for LPG imports.

As part of broader policy support for LPG imports, Bangladesh Bank issued a circular on 12 January, classifying LPG as an industrial raw material.

Under the new directive, businesses can import LPG on deferred payment terms through suppliers' or buyers' credit for up to 270 days.

The central bank said the move reflects the multiple stages involved in LPG processing, as the fuel is imported in bulk and later bottled for distribution.

Gold notches record high
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Gold climbed on Wednesday to hit a record, while silver breached the $90 mark for the first time, as softer-than-expected US inflation readings cemented bets for interest rate cuts amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Spot gold rose 1 percent to $4,632.03 per ounce as of 0715 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,639.42 earlier in the session. US gold futures for February delivery rose 0.9 percent to $4,639.50.

Spot silver jumped 3.6 percecnt to $90.11 per ounce, having shot up nearly 27 percent so far this year.

“US Consumer Price Index figures showed that inflation remained relatively contained at 2.6 percent (year-on-year), and risk assets may be hoping for a similarly benign Producer Price Index reading to keep expectations alive for further monetary policy easing,” said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade’s chief market analyst.

The US core CPI rose 0.2 percent month-on-month in December, falling short of analysts’ expectations of a 0.3 percent m/m and 2.7 percent y/y increase. US core PPI data for December is due later in the day.

US President Donald Trump welcomed the inflation figures, reiterating his push for the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates “meaningfully.”

Global central bank chiefs and top Wall Street bank CEOs lined up in support of Powell on Tuesday after news of the Trump administration’s decision to investigate him. The government’s move drew condemnation from former Fed chiefs as well.

Analysts say worries around trust in US assets, such as the dollar, and Fed independence added to safe-haven demand.

Investors expect two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, with the earliest in June.

Low-interest-rate environment and geopolitical or economic uncertainty traditionally favour non-yielding assets like gold.

ANZ expects gold to trade above $5,000/oz in the first half of 2026, the bank said in a note on Wednesday.

For silver, the next big figure will be the $100 mark, and high two-digit percentage gains for the metal seem likely this year, said GoldSilver Central managing director Brian Lan.

Bangladesh ADP 2025-26 sees only 17.5 per cent implementation in first half, lowest in two decades
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Bangladesh’s Annual Development Programme (ADP) has recorded its lowest mid-year implementation rate in two decades, with only 17.54 per cent of allocations spent in the first six months of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), Tk 418.76 billion was spent between July and December, down from Tk 500.02 billion in the same period last year.

The rate is lower than the 17.97 per cent recorded in 2024-25 and well below the 22-24 per cent seen in the three preceding years.

December alone saw 5.8 per cent of allocations spent, slightly higher than 5.67 per cent in the same month last year.

The interim government has already slashed Tk 300 billion from the ADP, reducing the revised allocation to Tk 2 trillion.

The biggest cuts came in health and education, with health spending reduced by 73 per cent and secondary and higher education by 55 per cent.

Political upheaval following last year’s August change of government, curfews, and shutdowns slowed project execution.

Many contractors linked to the previous administration went into hiding, while the new government reviewed projects, leaving development activity stagnant.

At the end of 2024-25, ADP implementation stood at 67.85 per cent, down from 80.63 per cent the year before.

IMED data shows no fiscal year since 2004-05 recorded such a low rate.

The revised ADP was approved at Monday’s NEC meeting chaired by the chief advisor.

Officials noted that while disbursement is usually slow in the first half of the year, political disruption and budget cuts have pushed implementation to historic lows.

Oil pauses gains as Venezuela shipments resume, but Iran concerns loom
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Oil slipped after four days of increases on Wednesday as Venezuela resumed exports and US crude and ‌product inventories rose, though fears of Iranian supply disruptions due to deadly civil unrest loomed over the market.

Brent futures were trading down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $65.27 a barrel at 0525 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $60.92 a barrel.

"Oil prices have already priced in quite a bit of geopolitical risk premium over the last few days in the face of rising turmoil in ‌Iran, compounded by drone attacks in the Black Sea," said Suvro Sarkar, an energy analyst at DBS Bank.

"Unless we see further escalation and chances of actual disruption in oil flows, the market could consolidate at these levels and wait for the next moves in a complex world order," he said. He added that large crude ‍and product builds in the US, reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Tuesday, may also be weighing on prices.

Crude stocks in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 5.23 million barrels in the week ended 9 January, the API reported, citing market sources.

Gasoline inventories ⁠rose by 8.23 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 4.34 million barrels from a week earlier.

Stockpile data from the ‍US Energy Information Administration will be released later on Wednesday. On Tuesday, a Reuters poll showed that US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last ‌week, while ‌gasoline and distillate inventories likely rose.

Also weighing on prices, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a US embargo as crude exports were also resuming, three sources said.

Two supertankers departed Venezuelan waters on Monday with about 1.8 million barrels each of crude in what may be the first shipments of a 50-million-barrel supply ⁠deal between Caracas and Washington ⁠to get exports moving again in the wake of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Mounting protests in Iran, however, have increased fears of supply disruptions from the fourth-largest OPEC producer. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Iranians to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without ‍specifying what that meant.

"Protests in Iran risk tightening global oil balances through near-term supply losses, but mainly through rising geopolitical risk premium," Citi analysts said in a note, raising their outlook for Brent over the next three months to $70 a barrel.

The Citi analysts noted that so far the protests have not spread to the main Iranian oil producing areas, which has ‍limited the effect on actual supply.

"Current risks are skewed toward political and logistical frictions rather than direct outages, keeping the impact on Iranian crude supply and export flows contained," they said.

Bangladesh restores lottery system for IPO share allocation under revised rules
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

The lottery system for allocating shares to investors in initial public offerings has been reinstated in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Officials of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) say shares of companies coming to the market through IPOs will now be distributed through a lottery instead of proportional allotment.

Following reforms to the IPO framework, the “Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Public Offer of Equity Securities) Rules, 2025” was gazetted on Dec 30.

The revised rules were explained at a press conference at the BSEC office in Agargaon on Wednesday.

Under the amended framework, stock exchanges will give primary approval to IPO proposals, with the BSEC issuing final approval based on their recommendations.

Interested companies will be allowed to apply for listing on one or both of the country’s stock exchanges. To be listed on the main board, a company must have paid-up capital of at least Tk 300 million.

After an IPO, at least 10 percent of a company’s total shares must be floated in the stock market, while the minimum post-IPO paid-up capital must be Tk 500 million.

To enter the market under the new rules, a company will have to offer shares worth at least Tk 200 million.

The regulator may relax this condition in the case of fundamentally strong or multinational companies.

Following an IPO, a company’s paid-up capital will not be allowed to exceed Tk 1.25 billion. Funds raised through the IPO will have to be utilised within five years of completion of the process.

The lottery-based share allotment system was scrapped in 2024, when the BSEC introduced proportional allocation based on investor demand and deposited funds.

Under that system, investors were required to have a minimum investment of Tk 50,000 in the main market to apply for IPO shares, with allotment made proportionately among all applicants.

After the fall of the Awami League government following the July Uprising in 2024, several taskforces were formed to reform the financial sector.Financial planning tools

Structural reforms in the capital market are now under way based on recommendations from those taskforces.

At the briefing, BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam said the taskforce held discussions with all stakeholders while preparing the amendments.

“Priority has been given to areas where there was consensus and common recommendations,” he said.

“This will make implementation easier. The system will be market-driven. Many aspects of the previous framework were not market-driven.”

Bangladesh receives $1.59b in remittances in first 13 days of Jan
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

The upward trend in remittances sent by Bangladesh expatriates has continued in January, with receiving over US $1.59 billion in 13 days of the month.

Bangladesh received $17.85 billion in inward remittances from July to January 13, 2026, in the current fiscal year, FY 2025-26. It was 14.7 billion in the same period of the previous FY2024-25, and saw a growth of 21.5 percent.

Blessings on the remittance, the gross forex reserves of Bangladesh cross $33 billion. As per the IMF standard BPM6, the forex reserves stood at $29 billion plus.

Arif Hossain Khan, Executive Director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, confirmed that the expatriates have sent $1.59 billion in the first 13 days of January 2026, which was $926 million in the same period of January 2025. It means the remittance earnings grew by 71.8 percent in this time.

The growth is attributed to several factors, including incentives offered for sending money through legal banking channels, increased encouragement for using the formal system and the active role of exchange houses.

In FY2025-26, Bangladesh received $2.47 billion in remittances in July, $2.42 billion in August, $2.68 billion in September, $2.56 billion in October, $2.88 billion in November, and $3.22 billion in December.

The data revealed that the average inward remittance flow was over $2.42 billion in the last six months. This robust flow of remittance influences Bangladeshi policymakers to discourage lending from the IMF with tough conditions.

NBR says most gold entering country is illegal; Bajus urges licenses for genuine traders
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Most of the gold currently in the country, as well as new imports, is coming through illegal channels, National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said today (14 January).

The NBR would provide necessary support to bring discipline to the sector, he said while speaking at the NBR's "Meet the Business" event in Agargaon, Dhaka.

"If formal requests are made to the Bangladesh Bank and the Ministry of Commerce for legal gold imports, NBR will provide the required support," he added.

The NBR chairman also highlighted that some officials of the board have allegedly been involved in illegal gold import activities, and measures have already been taken against certain individuals.

During the event, leaders of the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus), including its President Enamul Haque Khan, called for simplifying gold imports, issuing licenses to genuine traders, reducing VAT and other taxes, and making the tax payment process easier.

Traders noted that while gold is entering the country illegally, they want to operate without allegations or complications. They argued that simplifying the import process would reduce illegal trade, improve transparency, and allow them to conduct business legally under the VAT and tax system. To this end, Bajus presented several demands, including easier import procedures.

A Bajus leader added that in the past, the government issued 18 gold import licenses, but at least 10 went to individuals who were not genuine traders.

Some license holders had no connection to the jewellery business, while others were even cricketers, leaving real traders excluded, he said.

"Smugglers obtain licenses not to conduct business but to avoid legal hassles," the Bajus leader said, calling for licenses to be granted only to genuine traders to promote legal imports.

Traders also pointed out that due to complicated import procedures, gold prices in the domestic market are at least Tk30,000 per kilogram higher than in neighbouring countries such as India, Singapore, or Dubai, forcing many to procure gold through illegal channels.

China says trade in 2025 reached 'new historical high'
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

China said Wednesday trade volumes reached a record last year, as global demand for Chinese goods held firm despite a slump in exports to the US after Donald Trump raised tariffs.

Trade in 2025 "surpassed 45 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) for the first time, setting a new historical high," vice customs minister Wang Jun told a press conference in Beijing.

Exports, which have traditionally been the main driver of the world's second-largest economy, rose 6.1 percent in 2025 from the previous year.

Imports were up 0.5 percent, customs data showed.

"Some country has politicised trade issues and limited high tech exports to China, if they hadn't, we would have imported more," Wang said, in a veiled reference to the Trump's tariffs.

Looking ahead to 2026, China's market will "open more" and "still be an opportunity for the world" he added.

World Bank cuts FY26 growth forecast, signals recovery in next year with reduced political uncertainty
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.6% for the current fiscal 2025-26 from its October forecast of 4.8%, but hoped reduced political uncertainty to drive next year's growth to 6.1%.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday (13 January), the global lender stated that the country's growth is expected to rebound from an estimated 3.7% growth in FY25, with private consumption strengthening alongside easing inflationary pressures.

It also noted, "Reduced political uncertainty related to the general election in early 2026 and the expected implementation of structural reforms by a new government are projected to support stronger industrial activity in FY2026/27."

"These factors are also anticipated to lead to faster public spending and investment growth than previously projected", read the report.

Moreover, the World Bank emphasized that political transitions following the scheduled elections in Bangladesh this year could improve economic stability, with better predictability in growth-enhancing reform efforts.

Notably, the World Bank's revised outlook broadly aligns with other multilateral agencies. The United Nations earlier projected Bangladesh's economy to grow 4.6% in FY26, rising to 5.4% in FY27.

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank, in its September 2025 outlook, forecast 5% growth in FY26, while the International Monetary Fund estimated growth at 4.9% in FY26 and 5.7% in FY27.

However, the interim government set a 5.5% GDP growth target for FY26, exceeding the projections made by international agencies.

Growth in South Asia to slow

After an estimated strong 7.1% growth in 2025, South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 6.2% in 2026, mainly reflecting the impact of increased US import tariffs on India's export growth.

However, the report stated that growth in the region is then set to increase to 6.5% in 2027, as the effects of political uncertainty in several economies dissipate.

The regional outlook report stated that, "Downside risks to the regional outlook include further increases in trade restrictions and global trade policy uncertainty, tighter-than-expected financial conditions amid heightened financial vulnerabilities, increased social unrest, and more frequent or intense disasters due to natural hazards."

"However, there are multiple upside risks, including possible progress in bilateral trade negotiations, faster technology-led investment growth, and the potential benefits from more resilient political environments after elections in several economies."

Meanwhile, global economic growth projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, despite persistent trade and policy uncertainty.

Stock investors lose nearly 59% of every $100 invested in 2025: MSCI Bangladesh
15 Jan 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Bangladesh's equity investors have suffered steep losses over the long term, with each $100 invested in the country's stock market shrinking to just over $41 in dollar terms, reflecting a value erosion of nearly 59%, according to data from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).

The figures underscore the prolonged underperformance of Bangladesh's capital market compared to both global and frontier peers, raising fresh concerns about market structure, policy consistency and investor confidence.

According to MSCI's cumulative index performance data calculated up to December 2025, the MSCI Bangladesh Investable Market Index (IMI) stood at $50.39 in gross return terms, far behind the MSCI Frontier Markets IMI at $235.35 and the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) IMI at $428.49.

The divergence becomes even starker when net returns are considered. While the MSCI ACWI delivered net returns of $407.18 and frontier markets returned $218.07, MSCI Bangladesh's net return dropped to just $41.25. This means an investor who put $100 into Bangladesh equities over the long run lost nearly 59% of the original value in US dollar terms.

Market analysts say the poor performance reflects a combination of stagnant stock prices, weak liquidity and significant currency depreciation. Although some shares have shown resilience in local currency terms, the sharp fall of the taka against the US dollar has severely eroded dollar-based returns. As a result, even periods of relative price stability in taka have translated into losses for foreign investors once exchange rate effects are taken into account.

MSCI data also show that since November 2009, the MSCI Bangladesh Index has generated an average net return of minus 3.34%, compared to positive returns of 6.29% for frontier markets and 10.07% for the global index. This long-term underperformance has placed Bangladesh at the bottom among comparable markets tracked by global fund managers.

The MSCI Bangladesh IMI, which currently includes 36 companies and covers about 99% of the free-float adjusted market capitalisation, has a total market value of around $5.18 billion. The index is heavily concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, including Square Pharmaceuticals, Beximco Limited, BRAC Bank, Beximco Pharmaceuticals and Grameenphone. Market participants say this narrow investable universe limits diversification opportunities for global funds and increases vulnerability to stock-specific shocks.

A managing director of a brokerage firm said global fund managers largely rely on MSCI indices when allocating capital across countries. Persistent regulatory interventions, such as the imposition of floor prices, frequent policy changes and restrictions on price discovery, have reduced Bangladesh's attractiveness in global index frameworks. Both MSCI and FTSE Russell have maintained restrictions on Bangladesh-related indices due to concerns over market accessibility, liquidity and transparency, further dampening foreign interest.

Foreign investor activity has also weakened sharply in recent months. Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange show that monthly foreign turnover fell to just $5 million as of mid-December, compared to $30 million in October and $22 million in November. Earlier in 2025, foreign participation had shown brief signs of recovery, peaking at $41 million in May and $40 million in July, but those inflows proved short-lived as global investors steadily reduced exposure.

December witnessed notable selling pressure in several heavyweight stocks, leading to a net foreign outflow of around Tk118 crore. According to the monthly shareholding report, foreign investors sold shares worth roughly Tk120 crore during the month, while buying amounted to only about Tk2 crore. Most of the selling was concentrated in large-cap stocks that traditionally dominate foreign portfolios.

Currently, total foreign investment in the Dhaka bourse stands at around Tk13,000 crore, with only about 36% of listed companies having any foreign shareholding.

The MSCI Bangladesh Index, launched on 1 December 2009, is part of MSCI's broader factor-based analytical framework. MSCI Factor Classification Standards (FaCS) group equities by key drivers of risk and return such as value, size, momentum, quality, yield and volatility – factors widely supported by academic research and validated by MSCI. These factor groups are built using 16 underlying metrics, including book-to-price, earnings and dividend yields, leverage, long-term reversal, earnings variability and beta, derived from MSCI's Barra GEMLT global equity risk model to enable transparent and intuitive fund comparisons.

MSCI Inc, formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, is a US-based global financial services firm headquartered in New York. It provides widely used equity, fixed-income and real estate indices, multi-asset risk analytics, and ESG and climate solutions, including the MSCI World, Emerging Markets and All Country World indices.

Analysts said the MSCI index methodology is more fundamentally driven and therefore preferred by global fund managers, while the Dhaka Stock Exchange's index construction does not fully follow such internationally accepted standards.

As a result, the country's indices often fail to accurately reflect fundamentally strong stocks. This mismatch means local indices provide limited guidance on underlying corporate performance, making it difficult for investors to make informed and timely investment decisions based solely on domestic benchmarks.