In a move that could reshape the future of Bangladesh's national fish, PRAN-RFL Group is planning to farm hilsa for the first time in the country using advanced indoor aquaculture technology – an approach never before attempted commercially in the country.

The initiative will use recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) technology and be implemented jointly with Denmark-based Assentoft Aqua Limited, with an investment of €30 million, or around Tk430 crore.

Alongside hilsa, the project also plans to culture Asian seabass (coral) and other marine fish in the high-tech and fully controlled indoor environment. An agreement for the project was signed yesterday between PRAN-RFL Group and Assentoft Aqua.

The facility is expected to be set up at the Mirsarai Economic Zone in Chattogram or another suitable location agreed upon by both parties. The full investment will be rolled out in two to three phases over the next two years.

Hilsa is not only Bangladesh's national fish but also a powerful cultural symbol, carrying deep emotional value and commanding an increasingly high value in international markets.

Demand has been rising steadily among Bangladeshi expatriates in the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia. Yet exports remain limited due to dependence on natural sources, changes in river systems and seasonal fishing bans.

High domestic demand also means hilsa is often scarce, even at premium prices.

According to the Department of Fisheries, while overall production has increased in recent years, there is still a shortage of export-quality hilsa. Industry insiders say success in controlled hilsa farming could therefore mark a major breakthrough.

PRAN Group Managing Director Eleash Mridha told TBS the company was responding to growing local and global demand for premium marine fish.

"In view of the rising demand for quality marine fish at home and abroad, PRAN Group wants to farm these species in Bangladesh using modern RAS technology," he said.

"Assentoft Aqua has already been producing fish at an industrial scale in developed countries using this technology in limited spaces. Through this project, industrial-scale seabass production will begin in Bangladesh for the first time."

How RAS technology works

Recirculating aquaculture system, or RAS, is a fully controlled indoor fish farming method where water quality, temperature, oxygen, salinity and waste management are managed through technology. The same water is treated and reused repeatedly, reducing water use and lowering the risk of disease compared to conventional systems.

Under the project, the entire production chain will be established, including broodstock management, hatchery and nursery facilities. The target weight for each hilsa fish has been set at between 1.2 and 1.5 kilograms.

Once fully operational, the facility aims to produce around 2,000 tonnes of hilsa fish per year, a large share of which is intended for export.

Can hilsa be farmed?

Hilsa is a migratory fish, and for decades it was considered unsuitable for farming. In recent years, however, research trials on raising hilsa in controlled environments have begun in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.

Large-scale commercial production remains rare, making the PRAN-RFL–Assentoft initiative unusual on a global scale.

Dr Amirul Islam, a senior scientist at the Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute (BFRI), told The Business Standard that hilsa farming is scientifically very challenging.

"The biggest challenge is controlling the hilsa's life cycle and breeding behaviour," he said. "There is no successful record of hilsa farming so far."

If successful, such projects could reduce pressure on natural river systems and open up new export opportunities, he added.

Danish expertise and local ambition

Assentoft Aqua Limited is internationally known for its work with RAS technology. Its associate company, Mariscco ApS, has been providing technical support for fish farming projects in Bangladesh and other countries since 2016, including hatchery design, broodstock management and full RAS solutions.

Dr Jens Ole Olesen, business development director of Assentoft Aqua, said the company was ready to implement an RAS-based fish farming project in Bangladesh with financing guaranteed by the Danish government.

"We are optimistic about our partnership with PRAN-RFL Group," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group is one of Bangladesh's largest agro and food processing companies, with a strong presence in food, agriculture, dairy, beverages and export-oriented products.

Through this new fisheries venture, the group aims to enter the production and export of high-value marine fish, adding a new chapter to its expanding portfolio, according to the group's managing director, Eleash Mridha.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed today said that a comprehensive reform of the country's banking sector is unavoidable and critically important for safeguarding macroeconomic stability, restoring discipline in financial institutions, and ensuring sustainable growth.

The Finance Adviser said this while addressing the MTB-FE Roundtable as the chief guest on 'Banking Sector Reforms' held at a hotel in the capital today.

The Adviser said that most banking-related issues primarily fall under the mandate of Bangladesh Bank, although close coordination with the Ministry of Finance remains essential. He acknowledged that the sector is facing long-standing structural and governance challenges which have accumulated over the last decade and a half.

"These problems didn't arise overnight, and they can't be fixed within 14 or 16 months," he said, adding that institutional decay, weak enforcement of laws, erosion of compliance culture, and misuse of discretionary authority have severely affected the sector.

Correcting these weaknesses, he stressed, requires time, careful planning, and strong institutional reforms rather than abrupt or coercive actions.

The Adviser said that despite domestic criticism, Bangladesh's image in the international arena remains largely positive. Development partners and global stakeholders, he noted, generally view the country as having a manageable economy, although they acknowledge that reforming the banking and financial sectors is a difficult but necessary task.

Referring to recent legislative initiatives, he said the government has already taken steps to strengthen the legal framework governing the financial sector.

Amendments to laws related to the Negotiable Instruments Act and the House Building Finance Corporation Act have been passed, while work on strengthening anti-money laundering legislation and improving the effectiveness of financial courts is ongoing.

He pointed out that weak prudential norms, non-compliance with regulations, ineffective supervision, and excessive influence of bank owners over management have been among the key factors behind the sector's fragility.

In many cases, he said, banks were not run according to accepted norms of corporate governance, which undermined transparency and accountability.

Highlighting the role of audits and oversight, the Adviser cited irregularities in audit practices and stressed the need for greater responsibility and professionalism among auditors and regulatory bodies.

He said accountability must be enforced across all institutions to prevent financial misconduct and protect public interest.

On the issue of central bank autonomy, the Adviser said Bangladesh Bank requires adequate operational and administrative independence to perform its duties effectively. However, he emphasised that such autonomy must be balanced with accountability within the sovereign framework of the state.

The Adviser underlined the importance of appointing competent and credible leadership in the banking sector, particularly at the central bank. Transparent and merit-based selection processes, he said, are crucial to ensuring effective supervision and sound policy implementation.

Concluding his remarks, the Adviser said banking sector reform is not optional but a national necessity.

Even if all reforms cannot be completed within the current timeframe, he added that the government is committed to laying a solid foundation so that future administrations can continue the reform process without disruption.

"The banking sector is the backbone of the economy. Strengthening it is essential to protect depositors, maintain financial stability, and support long-term development," he said.

Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a remarkable 2025 surge into the new year as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

Hopping onto the coat-tails of far more expensive gold, technical analysts who study charts of past price moves to predict future movement said the rapid nature of silver's gains had positioned it for a major correction.

"Silver is in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy and with plenty of geopolitical risk to give gold added buoyancy, silver is benefiting, even now, from its lower unit price," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.

"Everyone, it seems, wants to be involved but it is also flashing amber wealth warnings," she added. "As and when cracks start to appear they could easily become chasms. Buckle up."

Spot prices for silver, used in jewellery, electronics, solar panels, as well as an investment, were last up 5.1% at $101 per troy ounce on Friday.

The price has gained 40% since the beginning of 2026 after rallying by 147% in 2025. Gold hit a record high of $4,988 per ounce on Friday.

BofA strategist Michael Widmer estimates that a fundamentally justified silver price is around $60 with demand from solar panel producers probably having peaked in 2025 and overall industrial demand under pressure from record-high prices.

For the first time in 14 years, it will take just 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold as of Friday, down from 105 ounces in April.

This ratio, which traders and analysts use as a gauge for future direction, means that silver's outperformance over gold has become stretched.

Investment demand

Silver's gain in 2025 was the largest yearly growth in LSEG data going back to 1983.

The market's performance in 2025 was underpinned by robust investment demand for all precious metals and an extended period of thin liquidity in the benchmark London silver market as worries about US tariffs prompted massive inflows to US stocks.

Several waves of active retail buying through purchases of small bars and coins as well as inflows into physically backed silver exchange-traded funds have added to buying since October, according to analysts.

Almost 20% of a total 1.0-billion-ounce silver supply comes annually from the recycling sector, with activity heightened due to record prices.

However, inventories have not been rebuilding quickly with a shortage of high-grade refining capacity limiting the speed at which silver scrap material can be returned to the market, leading precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said.

The availability of the stocks in the market and secondary supply have become more crucial after five consecutive years of structural deficit, set to persist in 2026.

These deficits, outflows to the US and inflows to the ETFs saw the amount of metal which can be quickly mobilised in periods of high demand in London commercial vaults dwindle to a record low of 136 million ounces by end-September, Metals Focus estimates.

By end-2025, stocks had recovered to nearly 200 million ounces helping to drive down lease rates in London from their October spike, but remained far below the roughly 360 million ounces available in London in the peak of the Reddit-driven rally in early 2021.

What now?

Analysts expect outflows from US stocks to speed up and boost liquidity in the traditional markets as Washington refrained from imposing any tariffs when announcing the results of its critical metals review in mid-January.

After peaking at 532 million ounces on 3 October, COMEX inventories have fallen by 114 million ounces to 418 million ounces, their lowest level since March, as the metal worth about $11 billion left the inventories.

To reach pre-Trump-election levels, COMEX stocks would need to see further outflows of about 113 million ounces, equal to about 11% of total annual silver supply.

"Profit taking following the frenzied nature of the investor-driven rally since late November is likely sooner rather than later, particularly in view of ongoing physical market easing," said BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson.

Biman Bangladesh Airlines has suspended two premium long-haul routes within a year, despite one not being loss-making, exposing deep structural weaknesses in fleet planning and route strategy as the national carrier struggles to balance Hajj operations, aircraft shortages and brand credibility.

The most recent decision to suspend the Dhaka-Manchester route from March ahead of Hajj operations comes months after Biman halted the Dhaka-Narita service following heavy losses, indicating a pattern of abrupt long-haul withdrawals that industry experts say reflects deeper flaws in feasibility assessment and long-term fleet planning rather than isolated operational pressures.

At the heart of the disruption is a shrinking and overstretched wide-body fleet, with no new aircraft added in five years, repeated failures to lease additional planes and fresh deliveries from Boeing still at least six years away, forcing the airline to repeatedly reshuffle routes instead of executing a stable network strategy.

Aviation analyst and former Biman Board member Kazi Wahidul Alam said focusing solely on labour-intensive Middle Eastern routes risks weakening the airline's brand.

"Biman is not a budget carrier. Excluding premium routes like Dhaka-Manchester while focusing only on labour routes is not acceptable if the airline wants to maintain a strong image," he told The Business Standard. "To sustain brand value, important international routes must continue."

However, Biman maintains that closing or suspending a route is not a sign of mismanagement but a responsible, safety-driven, and pragmatic operational decision, particularly in the face of severe fleet constraints.

Manchester route suspended amid fleet crisis

Biman has announced that the Dhaka-Manchester-Dhaka route will be temporarily suspended from 1 March 2026 until further notice. The airline cited aircraft shortages, upcoming Hajj operations, long-term maintenance of existing aircraft, and the need to ensure optimal fleet utilisation across its network.

Responding to demands from Sylhet-origin expatriates based in Manchester to keep the route operational, Biman said the Dhaka-London route remains available and can absorb demand, noting that Manchester is about 262 kilometres from London and reachable by train in around two hours.

According to Biman sources, the Manchester route was neither loss-making nor profitable. "However, national interest and Hajj operations require aircraft reallocation during peak periods," a senior official said.

The route has a history of disruption. It was first suspended in 2012 due to aircraft shortages and resumed in early 2020 following long-standing demands from expatriates. The latest suspension – less than five years after resumption – has again raised concerns among passengers.

Biman spokesperson Bosra Islam told TBS that wide-body aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and 777 are used for European, Hajj and Middle Eastern routes. "Manchester is a long-haul destination, and a single aircraft remains tied up for several days. In contrast, the same aircraft can operate multiple Middle Eastern flights within that time," she said.

She added that with a limited fleet, maximising aircraft productivity becomes an operational necessity.

Focus shifts to Middle East routes

Biman says it is prioritising Middle Eastern destinations, where demand from expatriate workers, Umrah pilgrims, transit passengers and cargo movement remains strong. Currently, routes such as Dubai, Jeddah, Riyadh, Doha, Dammam and Muscat are experiencing high passenger loads.

Biman Managing Director Shafikur Rahman recently told the media that expansion in the Middle East remains a key priority due to its importance for remittances, transit traffic and cargo. However, all growth will be phased and tied to fleet availability.

"Our future growth strategy focuses on measured network expansion aligned with market demand and operational capacity," he said. "All new expansion will be introduced in phases, supported by careful fleet planning and commercial viability assessments."

European long-haul operations also require additional pilots, more cabin crew and longer rest periods. During peak Hajj and Umrah seasons, the same crew resources are heavily deployed on Middle Eastern routes, allowing higher flight frequencies and better utilisation.

The next Hajj flight operations are scheduled to begin from 18 April. During the season, thousands of pilgrims must be transported within a limited timeframe, requiring a large number of special flights alongside regular schedules. This pressure often leads to reduced frequencies or suspensions on other routes.

In addition, routine C-checks, engine overhauls and structural inspections can take aircraft out of operation for weeks or months, further tightening fleet availability.

Biman is currently operating 22 international routes with a fleet of 19 aircraft. The airline has failed at least five times in the past two years to lease additional aircraft, and no new aircraft have been added in the last five years.

New aircraft purchases from Boeing are expected only by 2031 – still six years away – leaving the carrier struggling to balance expansion, premium connectivity and operational sustainability amid growing passenger demand.

Narita route: premium service, heavy losses

Biman's Dhaka-Narita route, another premium long-haul service, was suspended in July last year within just 21 months of its resumption due to heavy financial losses.

The national carrier first launched the Narita route in 1979. After multiple suspensions – in 1981 and again in 2006 due to sustained losses – the service was relaunched on 1 September 2023 amid strong public enthusiasm, as it cut travel time to six to seven hours and eliminated long transit stops.

However, Biman sources said each Narita flight incurred losses of nearly Tk95 lakh, with average cabin occupancy at 69%. Total losses on the route stood at Tk215.58 crore, forcing the airline to halt operations and pushing passengers back to third-country transit routes, increasing travel time and costs.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has decided to form a subsidiary to provide mobile financial services (MFS).

The decision was taken at a meeting of the bank's board of directors today (22 January), held at its boardroom, subject to the completion of all regulatory formalities.

As per the decision, the authorised capital of the proposed subsidiary will be Tk1,000 crore, while the initial paid-up capital will be Tk50 crore. The paid-up capital will be increased gradually in line with investment requirements.

According to a price-sensitive disclosure, Islami Bank will hold at least 51% of the shares of the subsidiary, while the remaining shares may be offered to strategic investors in accordance with Bangladesh Bank's MFS guidelines.

Md. Omar Faruk Khan, managing director of Islami Bank, said, "The bank has decided to launch a Mobile Financial Service (MFS), and the necessary documents are being prepared for submission to the central bank."

According to the bank's website, Islami Bank currently operates its own MFS platform, mCash, which was launched in December 2012.

Through mobile phones, mCash offers services including cash deposits and withdrawals, fund transfer from one account to another, receiving remittance from abroad, checking account balance and mini-statement, giving and receiving salary, mobile recharge and payment of utility bill, merchant bill payment.

According to the bank's unaudited consolidated financial statements, Islami Bank reported a profit of Tk99.77 crore in the first nine months of 2025 (January–September), down from Tk267.72 crore in the same period of 2024. In 2024, the bank posted a net profit of Tk10,878 crore, a significant decline from Tk635.33 crore, and did not pay any dividends to shareholders.

The United States officially left the World Health Organization on Thursday (22 January) after a year of warnings that doing so would hurt public health in the US and globally, saying its decision reflected failures in the UN health agency's management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

President Donald Trump gave notice that the US would quit the organization on the first day of his presidency in 2025, via an executive order. According to a press release from the US Health and State Departments, the US will only work with the WHO in a limited fashion in order to effectuate the withdrawal.

"We have no plans to participate as an observer, and we have no plans of rejoining," a senior government health official said. The US said it plans to work directly with other countries - rather than through an international organization - on disease surveillance and other public health priorities.

Dispute over us-owed fees

Under US law, it was supposed to give one-year notice and pay all outstanding fees - around $260 million - before departing.

But a US State Department official disputed that the statute contains a condition that any payment needs to be made before withdrawal. "The American people have paid more than enough," a State Department spokesperson said in an email earlier on Thursday (22 January).

The Department of Health and Human Services said in a document released on Thursday (22 January) that the government had ended its funding contributions to the agency. Trump had exercised his authority to pause the future transfer of any US government resources to the WHO because the organization had cost the US trillions of dollars, the HHS spokesperson said.

The US flag had been removed from outside the WHO headquarters in Geneva on Thursday (22 January), according to witnesses.

In recent weeks, the US has moved to exit a number of other United Nations organizations, and some fear that Trump's recently launched Board of Peace could undermine the UN as a whole.

Several WHO critics have also proposed setting up a new agency to replace the organization, although a proposal document reviewed by the Trump administration last year instead suggested the US push for reforms and American leadership at WHO.

Quick return unlikely

Over the last year, many global health experts have urged a rethink, including most recently WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The WHO also said the US has not yet paid the fees it owes for 2024 and 2025. Member states are set to discuss the US departure and how it will be handled at the WHO's executive board in February, a WHO spokesperson said.

"This is a clear violation of US law," said Lawrence Gostin, founding director of the O'Neill Institute for Global Health Law at Georgetown University in Washington, a close observer of the WHO. "But Trump is highly likely to get away with it."

Bill Gates – chair of the Gates Foundation, a major funder of global health initiatives and some of the WHO's work – told Reuters at Davos that he did not expect the US to reconsider in the short term.

China gets up to a fifth of its imported oil from Iran and another 4% to 5% from Venezuela, often through clandestine channels to skirt United States sanctions — or at least it did before recent disruptions.

US President Donald Trump's move earlier this month to unseat Venezuela's longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro, redirect its oil to the US and impose 25% tariffs on Iran-linked trade has raised serious questions about energy security in the world's second-largest economy.

Oil prices briefly spiked on fears that China's discounted Iranian supplies could be hit, while experts warned that US seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers may further constrict flows.

Can China's domestic production fill the gap?

Beijing, meanwhile, has limited room to fall back on its domestic oil production to plug the gap.

As most of China's imported oil runs through the narrow, congested Malacca Strait, Beijing has long treated the route as a strategic vulnerability. The strait, which is patrolled by the US navy, became a potential chokepoint during Trump's first term as bilateral tensions escalated with Washington.

In 2019, President Xi Jinping ordered the ramping up of exploration and refining at home, launching the Seven-Year Action Plan and billions in new investments by China's oil majors CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC. Those gains, however, have been modest.

Domestic production rose from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to around 4.32 million barrels per day last year. However, even the growth from new wells, including tight shale fracking— tight oil or shale is found in impermeable shale and limestone rock deposits — could only offset the decline of China's giant legacy fields, like Daqing in northeastern Heilongjiang Province and Shengli on the eastern Yellow River Delta.

June Goh, a Singapore-based senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the cumulative output growth of 8.9% since 2021 is "huge," surpassing Beijing's target of the equivalent of 4 million barrels a day.

"The recent supply risk serves to prove that what they are doing is right," Goh told DW. But she warned that further production growth was unlikely to be "exponential" as China's oil majors are struggling to discover new reserves.

Other oil sector experts who have closely tracked China's efforts to boost domestic production have described the situation more bluntly.

"[Despite] a huge amount of investment over the past 15 years or more," output has largely been "running to stay still," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told DW.

Myllyvirta said despite billions of yuan being poured into new oil wells, fracking and offshore projects, domestic oil production "has not budged."

Oil stockpiles will help offset losses from Iran, Venezuela

With domestic output offering little upside, Beijing is leaning more on oil reserves. Since late 2023, Chinese policymakers significantly accelerated the expansion and filling of emergency stockpiles, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The move was fueled by growing geopolitical tensions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a global surge in energy prices.

China was partly insulated after cutting deals with Iran and Russia to secure heavily discounted crude at below-market rates amid Western sanctions. Moscow became China's top oil supplier until last year, when US sanctions on Russian firms and tankers caused a noticeable drop in flows.

Iran has since filled much of the gap, with nearly all of its exports — up to 2 million barrels per day at one point last year — delivered covertly to China via shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and relabeling to disguise origins and evade tracking.

These stockpiles were increased further in 2025, Reuters news agency reported in October, with 11 new storage sites expected to be operational by early this year.

Goh thinks stockpiling rather than production increases will help China to further boost its energy independence amid likely falling supplies from Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

"China currently has 110 days of cover, which is higher than the OECD target of 90 days," she said, referring to both the SPR and commercial reserves. "They have set a target of 180 days, so efforts to stockpile will now be accelerated given the geopolitical risks."

Renewables, electrification emerge as the safer bet for China

While reserves provide immediate cushioning, longer-term resilience lies in the other measures China has pursued to strengthen energy security. These include rapid electrification and a record build-out of renewable energy.

Beijing has spent the past five years aggressively shifting oil-consuming sectors, including transport and heavy industry, toward electricity. Oil use in the transport sector peaked in 2023, China's largest state oil producer, CNPC, reported last February. The country is upgrading its grid and building ultra-high-voltage lines to carry power from remote generation hubs to coastal industrial centers.

Electric vehicles (EV) now account for well over half of new car sales, and entire city bus fleets in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and dozens of provincial capitals have already gone fully electric. The rapid rollout of more than a million EV charging stations nationwide has helped cap growth in gasoline demand even as the economy expands.

In 2024 and 2025 alone, China added more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, alongside record wind installations across Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and coastal provinces.

"China's wind and solar capacity growth has been more than 300 gigawatts per year over the past three years and is likely to have reached 400 gigawatts last year," Myllyvirta noted.

Although these efforts can't eliminate the country's reliance on imported crude, they do blunt the impact of possible disruptions from heavily-sanctioned oil suppliers.

As China's leaders prepare to unveil the next 5-year plan in March — the blueprint that will steer national economic and energy priorities until the early 2030s — further investments in domestic fossil fuel production, electrification and renewables are expected to feature heavily.

"For the next 5-year plan, China has a wide range of possible targets," Myllyvirta said. "Combined with [additional oil] storage, maintaining that rate of renewable growth could substitute a lot of gas or coal in power generation. Electrification can replace all fossil fuels in industry, transportation and buildings."

A striking contradiction played out on the Dhaka Stock Exchange last week. Even as Bangladesh Bank prepared to wind up nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) deemed non-viable, shares of several of those very firms surged spectacularly, fuelled not by recovery hopes but by a wave of speculative trading chasing quick gains.

Stocks of Fareast Finance, Premier Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing, Prime Finance and Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) jumped more than 50% to over 60% within a week.

Market analysts said the sharp rise had little to do with fundamentals and was instead fuelled by short-term traders exploiting volatility triggered by recent regulatory announcements.

The rally followed Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur's statement that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable and placed under liquidation after independent audits.

He made the remarks at a press briefing at the central bank headquarters on 5 January, saying independent auditors would be appointed to determine the actual financial condition of the troubled institutions.

The nine NBFIs set for liquidation are FAS Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, Peoples Leasing and International Leasing.

Immediately after the announcement, several of the stocks witnessed panic selling, as investors feared a complete wipeout of shareholder value. That sentiment soon reversed, however, with aggressive speculative buying pushing prices to upper circuit limits on multiple trading sessions.

In an interview with The Business Standard, Governor Mansur said the government had agreed to provide funds to safeguard individual depositors under the newly enacted Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025.

He said individual depositors would get back their principal, though interest would not be paid, while institutional depositors would depend on recoveries from the liquidation process.

Bangladesh Bank will appoint liquidators to assess assets and liabilities, recover defaulted loans and sell properties and investments before distributing proceeds among creditors as per law.

Market rides broader optimism

The speculative surge in weak NBFI stocks came amid a broader rally on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The benchmark DSEX advanced 140 points, or 2.84%, to 5,099 last week, while the DS30 index rose 50 points, or 2.62%, to close at 1,962.

Market breadth remained strong, with 309 stocks gaining against 41 losers. Average daily turnover jumped 51% week-on-week to Tk575 crore, and total market capitalisation rose by Tk6,300 crore.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, said the market regained recovery momentum on the back of broad-based participation and renewed buying interest in undervalued blue-chip stocks.

The market started the week on a strong note and sustained positive momentum for three consecutive sessions. Although some profit booking was seen toward the end of the week, it did not materially weaken the bullish sentiment.

Insurance stocks saw notable accumulation following recent sector developments, while pharmaceuticals and banking also drew strong investor interest. Most sectors ended the week in positive territory.

Bangladesh's insurance companies paid out less than half of the premiums collected in the first nine months of 2025, raising concerns over mounting unpaid claims and eroding public confidence.

According to official data, between January and September 2025, insurance companies collected approximately Tk4,600 crore in premiums from policyholders. However, during the same period, claims worth only Tk2,221 crore were settled – equivalent to 48% of the total premium income.

At the same time, total outstanding claims across the sector stood at Tk9,624 crore, highlighting a widening gap between premium collection and claims settlement.

Analysis of data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra) shows that the sector's average claims settlement rate during the nine-month period was just 23%. In life insurance, the rate stood at 35.18%, while in non-life insurance it was only 7.55%.

Of the Tk4,600 crore in total premiums collected, life insurers accounted for Tk3,050 crore and paid Tk2,106 crore in claims. Non-life insurers collected Tk1,547 crore but settled claims of only Tk275 crore.

The figures indicate that although policyholders continue to pay premiums regularly, insurers are disbursing significantly less in claims, causing unpaid liabilities to accumulate over time. As a result, the overall claims settlement ratio is declining at an alarming pace.

A key indicator in assessing insurers' financial health is the Incurred Claim Ratio (ICR), which measures the proportion of claims paid relative to premiums earned within a specific period. For example, if a health insurer collects Tk1 crore in premiums and pays Tk80 lakh in claims, its ICR would be 80%, with the remaining Tk20 lakh typically covering operating expenses and profit.

In the insurance industry, an ICR between 60% and 90% is generally considered healthy, reflecting a balance between customer service and financial sustainability. Companies within this range tend to enjoy higher customer trust and long-term stability.

However, when the ICR falls below 50%, it suggests that an insurer is paying out relatively low claims compared to premium income. While this may boost short-term profitability, it raises serious concerns about service standards and fair settlement practices, potentially undermining public confidence.

Industry insiders note that newly registered insurers often report lower claims ratios in their early years, as most policies have not yet matured. Over time, as policy terms are completed, maturity and death claims rise, naturally putting the ICR at a lower level.

In Bangladesh, particularly in the life insurance segment, several established companies have historically maintained higher claims payouts due to a large number of mature policies. However, sector observers warn that many firms are now deviating from this normal trajectory.

"There appears to be growing reluctance among some insurers to settle claims promptly, even as they aggressively collect premiums," said a former chief executive officer of an insurance company, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He added that if policyholders' funds are not paid out in claims, they should ordinarily remain within the company's life fund or investment portfolio. Yet, in reality, both life funds and investment volumes are reportedly declining.

"This raises legitimate questions about how the collected premiums are being utilised," he said. "If the funds are invested internally, why are adequate returns not being generated? And if profits are insufficient, why are claims regularly delayed?"

According to him, weak oversight and limited accountability have allowed such practices to persist, leaving policyholders financially distressed and further eroding trust in the sector.

In a recent move aimed at restoring discipline and transparency, Idra suspended licences of individual agents operating in the non-life insurance segment, effective from 1 January. Earlier, acting on a proposal from the Bangladesh Insurance Association, the regulator set the commission rate for individual agents in non-life insurance at 0%.

Sector insiders believe that proper implementation of these reforms could help revive business growth, improve governance standards and ultimately raise claims settlement rates, thereby rebuilding public confidence in the insurance market.

Walton Hi-Tech Industries posted a 19.34% year-on-year rise in profit in the first half of FY26, driven by lower raw material costs, a stable exchange rate, tighter control over production expenses and strong management strategies.

According to the company's latest quarterly financial statements, the leading local electronics manufacturer reported a net profit of Tk363.34 crore for the July-December period, up from Tk304 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue during the six months rose by 8.48% year-on-year to Tk2,762.34 crore, up from Tk2,546 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. As a result, earnings per share (EPS) climbed to Tk10.90, compared with Tk9.14 a year earlier.

However, in the October-December quarter of 2025, its earnings per share stood at Tk4.27, down from Tk4.66 in the same period of the previous year.

Today, the company's shares edged up by 0.08% to close at Tk384.20 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

In a press statement yesterday following a board meeting, the company said the improvement was driven by a stable foreign exchange rate, cautious and timely procurement of raw materials, and effective control over production costs.

It also credited strong management direction, efficient cost management and strategic planning for the gains across key financial indicators, including sales, profit, EPS and operating cash flow.

Walton said it expects the growth momentum in sales, profit, cash flow and other financial indicators to continue in the coming quarters.

The company's net asset value (NAV) per share rose to Tk257.24 excluding revaluation and Tk358.41 including revaluation, reflecting its strong financial foundation.

Its operating cash flow also showed significant improvement. In the first half of the current financial year, net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk19.41, from Tk6.30 in the same period last year.

The company said this was mainly due to an 8.07% increase in collections from customers and an 18.97% reduction in payments to raw material and other suppliers.

Notably, Walton said its operating cash flow and overall financial stability remained unaffected despite the value-added tax on refrigerators and air conditioners being raised from 7.5% to 15% in the 2025-26 financial year.

Meanwhile, at the company's board meeting, the proposed merger scheme between Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd (WDIL), the acquiree, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC (WHIPLC), the acquirer, was approved.

However, the merger will be finalised and implemented only after securing approvals from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, other relevant regulatory authorities, as well as the consent of general shareholders and creditors.

As of 31 December 2025, the company's sponsors and directors jointly held 61.09% of its shares, while institutional investors owned 0.75% and general investors 38.16%.

Founded in 2008, Walton entered the electronics and home appliance market at a time when the sector was largely dependent on imports.

The company now leads the domestic refrigerator market with more than 72% market share and has a strong presence in televisions, air conditioners, ceiling fans, LED lights and other home appliances.

Walton began exporting refrigerators in 2011 and currently ships a range of products – including refrigerators, mobile phones, compressors and televisions – to markets in Europe, Asia and Africa.

The cost of the Rooppur nuclear power plant is set to rise by Tk 25,593 crore, pushing the total outlay to Tk 138,685 crore and extending the completion deadline to 2028.

The revised proposal is expected to be placed before the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council today, with Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus will chair the meeting.

If approved, the first revision will lift the 2,400 MW project cost from Tk 113,092 crore, an increase of about 23 percent. The original deadline of the country’s first nuclear power project was December 31, 2025.

The project was initially approved in 2016, with around 90 percent of the funding coming from a soft Russian loan.

According to Planning Commission documents, the cost escalation is driven mainly by higher allocation for project components, adding 10 new ones, and the depreciation of local currency taka against the US dollar.

As Bangladesh’s first nuclear project, limited prior experience led to an underestimation of costs related to maintenance, spare parts and advisory services, it said.

The documents mention that the combined allocation for 38 components has been increased in the revised development project proposal, including expanded facilities at the residential bloc Green City.

Besides, additional requirements emerged during the long implementation period, contributing to higher costs.

The Ministry of Science and Technology, the implementing agency of the nuclear power plant, also cited the sharp fall in the exchange rate from an original assumption of Tk 80 per dollar, alongside the exhaustion of allocations for advance payments, customs duty and value-added tax (VAT).

Delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and international sanctions on some Russian banks have led to extensions of both the loan agreement and the construction timeline, it said.

“The dollar exchange rate was Tk 80 when the project began in 2016; it has now reached Tk 122.40. This shift is the primary driver behind the cost increase,” said Project Director Md Kabir Hossain.

He said that despite the higher overall cost, the project saved Tk 166 crore from the government exchequer. While expenditures increased in 34 components, allocations were reduced in 49 others.

FUEL LOADING AT UNIT-1 LIKELY IN FEB

Of the two units at the plant, construction work at unit-1 was completed last year. However, the unit has not yet entered operation due to the incomplete technical testing process.

Following a recent site visit, senior government officials said fresh nuclear fuel loading for unit-1 is likely to begin in the last week of February this year, subject to the Russian side completing its final requirements.

“Our preparations for fuel loading are complete. The Russian side expects to begin loading at unit-1 in late February, and we are hopeful the plant will be ready within this timeframe,” Md Anwar Hossain, secretary at the Ministry of Science and Technology, told The Daily Star last week.

He said that after missing earlier schedules due to a lack of preparedness, fuel loading has now become the main focus to bring the country’s first nuclear power plant online.

Project officials said that if fuel loading starts in late February, a physical start-up could take place by April, with power generation possibly beginning by mid-year. The timeline, however, depends on the successful completion of critical tests and machinery inspections.

“It is delaying to complete all the tests as many complications are found out during the test period, and we are bound to solve those to reach the next period. In this way a huge amount of time is spent.” Hossain said.

Without completing the required tests and machinery preparation, the exact timing of fuel loading cannot be confirmed, he added.

India and Europe hope to strike the “mother of all deals” when EU chiefs meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi next week, as the two economic behemoths seek to forge closer ties.

Facing challenges from China and the United States, India and the European Union have been negotiating a massive free trade pact -- and talks, first launched about two decades ago, are nearing the finishing line.

“We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week.

Von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will attend Republic Day celebrations Monday before an EU-India summit Tuesday, where they hope to shake hands on the accord.

Securing a pact described by India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as “the mother of all deals”, would be a major win for Brussels and New Delhi as both seek to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

But officials have been eager to stress there is more to it than commerce.

“The EU and India are moving closer together at the time when the rules-based international order is under unprecedented pressure through wars, coercion and economic fragmentation,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said Wednesday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have brought momentum to the relationship between India and the EU, said Praveen Donthi, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

“The EU eyes the Indian market and aims to steer a rising power like India away from Russia, while India seeks to diversify its partnerships, doubling down on its strategy of multi-alignment at a time when its relations with the US have taken a downward turn,” he said.

The summit will offer Brussels the chance to turn the page after a bruising transatlantic crisis over Greenland -- now seemingly defused. Together the EU and India account for about a quarter of the world’s population and GDP.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services. But both parties are eager to do more.

“India still accounts for around only around 2.5 percent of total EU trade in goods, compared with close to 15 percent for China,” an EU official said, adding the figure gave a sense of the “untapped potential” an agreement could unlock.

EU makers of cars, machinery and chemicals have much to gain from India lowering entry barriers, said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, an analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, who led EU trade talks with New Delhi over a decade ago.

“India is one of the most heavily protected economies in the world, with very, very high tariffs, including on many products where the European Union has a competitive advantage,” he told AFP.

Its economy in the doldrums, the 27-member EU is also pushing to ease exports of spirits and wines and strengthen intellectual property rules. India -- the fastest‑growing major economy in the world -- wants easier market access for products such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.

EU officials were tight-lipped about the deal’s contents as negotiations are ongoing.

But agriculture, a sensitive topic in both India and Europe, is likely to play a limited role, with New Delhi eager to protect its dairy and grain sectors.

Talks are focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU’s carbon border tax on steel exports and safety and quality standards in the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Still EU officials said they were confident negotiations could be concluded in time for the summit.

An accord on mobility to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, is also on the menu, alongside a security and defence pact.

The latter envisages closer cooperation in areas including maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, an EU official said. It is also a “precondition” for the possible joint production of military equipment, said a second EU official.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for decades for key military hardware, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base. Europe is doing the same vis-a-vis the US.

“We’re ready to open a new chapter in EU-India relationships, and really to unlock what we think is the transformative potential of this partnership,” said another EU official.

Global stocks were subdued and precious metals hit new highs Friday as US President Donald Trump followed up conciliatory comments on Greenland with a fresh warning on Iran.

Trump, who on Wednesday backed away from threatened tariffs on Europe over Greenland, told reporters the United States was sending a "massive fleet" toward Iran "just in case."

Gold -- a safe-haven asset -- pushed closer to a record $5,000 an ounce, while fellow safe haven silver also kept rising, blasting through $102 an ounce amid worries over what Trump may say next, or actually do.

The dollar retreated, falling to a four-month low against the euro.

Sentiment had calmed over the past two days after the US president pulled back from his threat to hit several European nations with levies because of their opposition to Washington taking over the Danish autonomous territory of Greeland.

Trump has repeatedly left open the option of new military action against Iran after Washington backed and joined Israel's 12-day war in June aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The prospect of immediate American action seemed to recede in recent days, with both sides insisting on giving diplomacy a chance.

European markets sought direction in vain, Frankfurt closing just in the green as London and Paris fell on the red side of the line at the end of the week.

Wall Street painted a similar picture, with the Dow retreating while the Nasdaq pushed higher.

Intel plunged 17 percent after lackluster expectations on the chip maker's earnings.

Asian markets closed higher.

- Powell under pressure -

Trump's latest salvo against allies revived trade war fears and uncertainty about US investment, putting downward pressure on the dollar this week.

Analysts said there was no guarantee that Europe-US relations had improved durably.

The US president's willingness to threaten tariffs over any issue had rattled confidence on trading floors, boosting safe-haven metals, analysts said.

Investors were also preparing for next week's Federal Reserve meeting following economic data broadly in line with forecasts and after US prosecutors took aim at boss Jerome Powell, which has raised fears over the bank's independence.

The bank is tipped to hold interest rates steady, after cutting them in the previous three meetings.

The meeting also comes as Trump considers candidates to replace Powell when the Fed chair's term comes to an end in May.

The Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged ahead of a snap election next week, which could impact government spending plans.

After sharp volatility in the wake of the announcement, the yen traded slightly higher.

Next week's US earnings calendar is packed with results from Apple, Microsoft, Boeing, Tesla, Meta and other corporate giants.

- Key figures at around 2120 GMT -

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 49,098.71 (close)

New York - S&P 500: FLAT at 6,915.61 (close)

New York - NASDAQ: UP 0.3 percent at 23,501.24 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,143.44 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,143.05 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.2 percent at 24,900.71 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 53,846.87 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 26,749.51 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 4,136.16 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1823 from $1.1755 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3636 from $1.3501

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.00 yen from 158.41 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.70 pence from 87.07 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.9 percent at $61.07 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.8 percent at $65.88 per barrel

Stockbrokers have urged the capital market regulator to revise the existing sector classification system of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, arguing that the outdated framework limits meaningful market analysis and weakens the market's appeal to global investors.

In a letter sent to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission today (21 January), the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) requested the regulator to initiate a comprehensive review of the current classification structure and consider adopting an internationally aligned model in consultation with relevant stakeholders.

The letter was signed by DBA President Saiful Islam.

At present, the DSE follows a sector classification system comprising 22 sectors, including government bonds, corporate bonds and mutual funds.

According to the brokers, this structure has remained largely unchanged since its introduction many years ago, despite significant evolution in global capital market practices.

In contrast, most international markets now rely on widely accepted frameworks such as the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), jointly developed by MSCI and Standard & Poor's, or the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB).

Under GICS, companies are grouped into 11 sectors, 25 industry groups, 74 industries and 163 sub-industries, offering what the brokers described as a more detailed, consistent and globally comparable structure.

Such frameworks, the brokers said, enable investors to better assess sectoral trends, compare markets across countries and make informed portfolio allocation decisions.

In its letter, the DBA highlighted that the limitations of the existing DSE classification are evident in several company-level examples. Marico Bangladesh Limited is currently grouped under "Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals," while British American Tobacco Bangladesh is classified as "Food and Allied."

Under international standards such as GICS, both would fall under the consumer staples sector, which the brokers said better reflects their main business activities.

Similarly, consumer-focused companies such as Walton, Singer, Bata and Apex would be classified under consumer discretionary, aligning them with global peers that are sensitive to changes in consumer demand and income levels.

The brokers said such mismatches create analytical distortions for investors, researchers, policymakers and international stakeholders. Sector-based performance analysis plays a crucial role in understanding economic cycles, consumption patterns and income trends.

For example, strong gains in consumer discretionary stocks often signal rising household incomes and economic expansion, while the outperformance of defensive sectors like utilities may indicate heightened economic caution.

An outdated or inconsistent classification system, they said, reduces the reliability of these signals.

The DBA said bringing the DSE's sector framework into line with global standards would improve transparency, strengthen market analysis and allow more meaningful comparisons with international markets.

This, it added, could help attract foreign portfolio investment and strengthen the stock market's role as an indicator of the wider economy.

The government has allowed the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to import liquefied petroleum gas through government-to-government deals amid a nationwide shortage of cooking gas cylinders and a sharp rise in prices.

The situation is being attributed to supply shortages and the authorities believe this move by the government would ease the crisis.

But a number of BPC officials said this would unlikely to bring relief anytime soon. Because, the corporation currently lacks the specialised lighterage vessels and dedicated jetties needed to transport the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Because of these logistical constraints, imports cannot begin immediately, according to a number of BPC officials.

Until now, LPG imports have been handled mainly by the private sector.

According to the current arrangement, BPC is allowed to import only bulk LPG -- gas brought in large tanks or vessels -- which private operators later bottle at their own terminals before selling it in the market.

BPC will supply LPG only to approved private operators and will not be involved in bottling or retail sales.

Market insiders say weak market management and poor oversight have also contributed to the current gas cylinder crisis, but these issues are being overlooked as the authorities rush to boost supply.

“We have several infrastructural limitations, as we have never imported this type of LPG before,” a BPC official said on condition of anonymity.

“Even if we import LPG, we will not sell it directly to consumers. The same private players who currently dominate the market will handle distribution, meaning they can still influence supply and prices,” he added.

PERMISSION GRANTED, BUT CONDITIONS APPLY

According to BPC sources, the corporation first sought permission to import LPG on January 10. The energy ministry gave verbal consent on January 18, followed by written approval on Tuesday.

The approval letter, addressed to BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan and signed by Shahina Akhter, senior assistant secretary of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, allows LPG imports under specific conditions.

These require BPC to consult the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB) to finalise operators, import volumes, payment arrangements, and plans for unloading and distribution, with the ministry granting final approval.

On Tuesday, Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan told The Daily Star that imports must be increased if the government wants to keep the country’s LPG market under control.

“The government’s involvement in the sector would make market monitoring easier, as we would be able to regularly oversee sales and ensure fair pricing,” he said.

He added that BPC officials are already reviewing potential sources for government-to-government imports and expressed hope that the crisis would be resolved soon.

Mani Lal Das, general manager (commercial and operations) at BPC, told The Daily Star that initial discussions would focus on suppliers in Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, countries from which Bangladesh already imports other petroleum products.

“We are preparing to send emails to these companies and will move ahead with those that can offer competitive prices, flexible terms and quick delivery,” he said.

Acknowledging logistical challenges for BPC’s first LPG imports, he said LPG cargoes usually arrive at the outer anchorage near Kutubdia and must be transferred to specialised lighterage vessels for unloading.

“However, we do not have such vessels or jetties,” he added.

To address the issue, Das said BPC is considering importing LPG in smaller consignments of 5,000 to 7,000 tonnes or working with suppliers that can provide three specialised lighterage vessels.

“One vessel would serve the Khulna-Daulatdia route, while two would be used in the Chattogram zone,” he added.

He expressed hope, saying discussions with potential suppliers are ongoing and that a final decision is expected within days.

However, a member of BPC’s procurement committee, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the entire process could take at least two months.

SUPPLY NOT THE MAIN ISSUE

Meanwhile, market data suggest that supply constraints are not caused by imports.

Over the past three years, LPG imports steadily increased: 12.23 lakh tonnes in 2023, 14.42 lakh tonnes in 2024, and 14.65 lakh tonnes in 2025, totalling 41.3 lakh tonnes.

In the last six months of 2025, imports rose 18 percent compared with the first half of the year, while average import costs fell 14 percent -- from Tk 87 per kg to about Tk 75 per kg, according to National Board of Revenue data. Most of the 14.65 lakh tonnes imported in 2025 arrived during this period.

Despite stable imports and lower costs, LPG prices remain high, raising concerns about artificial shortages. Retail prices are still much higher than government-set rates. In January, the government raised the price of a 12kg LPG cylinder by Tk 53 to Tk 1,306, but in Dhaka and Chattogram, it is selling for Tk 1,750 to Tk 2,100 -- Tk 400 to Tk 750 above the official rate.

Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the issue is not the volume of imports but poor market management.

“Over the past six months, LPG imports have risen, and average import costs have fallen, yet prices have increased, creating an artificial shortage,” he said.

“If the government imports LPG only to hand it over to the same suppliers, the crisis will not end. Alongside imports, distribution and market monitoring must be strengthened,” he added.

BPC officials also said that 98-99 percent of the LPG market is controlled by the private sector, limiting the government’s ability to intervene effectively. While 25 companies import LPG, just four dominate, accounting for 57 percent of total imports.

According to NBR data, Omera Petroleum Limited has the largest share at 17.96 percent, followed by Meghna Fresh LPG Ltd at 16.24 percent. Jamuna Spacetech Joint Venture and United Aygaz LPG Ltd control 12.38 percent and 9.11 percent, respectively.

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) output is set to jump this year, easing constraints seen since the 2022 Ukraine war and dampening prices, which could spur demand including from top importers China and India, analysts say.

This year marks the start of a large wave of supply that analysts expect to last until 2029, depressing prices that could drive more demand from emerging economies.

“2026 is expected to be a transitional year for the LNG market,” said Kpler. “The market is expected to move away from tightness toward ample availability, with sufficient supply even as winter demand and storage needs emerge, particularly in Europe.”

SUPPLY

Estimates from S&P Global Energy, Kpler and Rystad Energy forecast at least 35 million metric tons of new capacity coming online this year, primarily from the US and Qatar. This could lift global LNG supplies by up to 10 percent year-on-year, with 2026 supply forecasts from Kpler, Rystad, ICIS and Rabobank in a range of 460 million and 484 million metric tons.

Projects like Golden Pass LNG on the US Gulf Coast and Qatar’s North Field expansion are expected to contribute sizable volumes, while output is set to ramp up from Corpus Christi and Plaquemines LNG in the US, LNG Canada and the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim projects offshore Senegal and Mauritania.

The additional supply will pressure global prices, with analysts from Rabbobank, Rystad and Kpler predicting a range of averages for Asian spot LNG from $9.50 to $9.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, down from an average of $12.45 in 2025.

Rystad and Kpler gave forecasts for gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, to average in a range of $9.50 to $9.74 per mmBtu this year, down from an average of $14.20 in 2025.

With Asia LNG and European gas prices easing, price spreads to US benchmark Henry Hub will narrow, squeezing US LNG export margins at a time when feedgas costs are rising, said analysts at Vortexa, Rabobank and S&P Global Energy.

CHINA, INDIA TO DRIVE DEMAND

Asia’s LNG demand, which slipped in 2025 on price sensitivity and competition from alternative fuels, is forecast to recover by 4 percent to 7 percent this year led by China and India as lower prices spur additional spot purchasing, fuel switching and stockpiling, according to a range of outlooks from Rystad, Kpler and S&P Global Energy.

As winter grips northern China, 72-year-old farmer He Wenxiang runs his gas boiler only occasionally to warm the bedroom radiator.

New contracts will also add to rising imports, with Chinese demand expected to rise by 6 million to 7 million tons and Indian demand by 5 million tons, said Kpler analyst Nelson Xiong.

“Much of the new contracted supply should be absorbed domestically,” he said.

China’s 2025 imports slumped amid weak industrial demand, US tariffs, and strong domestic and piped gas supply. Demand this year is set to rise but may still fall short of 2024 levels, said Rystad Energy analyst Ole Dramdal, forecasting imports at 76.5 million tons this year, up 12 percent from 2025, as Beijing prioritizes domestic production.

However, a substantial surplus of China’s contracted volume will likely be remarketed as the country’s long-term LNG contracts are expected to reach above 80 million tons per year, Dramdal added, while Turkey, Malaysia and Taiwan will see their combined imports rise by 6.2 million tons in 2026.

EUROPE ABSORBS SUPPLY

Europe became a driver for global LNG demand after it cut Russian supply following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Kpler sees Europe’s 2026 LNG imports rising by 22 million tons while Rystad forecasts an increase of 20 million tons and Energy Aspects and ICIS see gains of around 13 million tons. This is driven by higher storage injection needs after lower end-of-winter inventories, higher domestic gas consumption amid softer average TTF prices, growing Turkish demand, and its role as a balancing market for rising Atlantic basin supply.

“Europe has been poised to absorb a large share of the new LNG supply, showing the strongest near-term incremental demand,” said Rystad’s Dramdal.

Europe will begin phasing out Russian piped gas and LNG this year, with analysts expecting LNG cargoes from the Yamal project to find alternative destinations like Turkey and Egypt, while Europe backfills the displaced volumes with Atlantic basin supply.

In the first half of the current 2025-26 fiscal year – from July to December – revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) increased by 14% compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.

However, collection fell Tk45,976 crore short of the target. NBR officials and experts attribute the large deficit primarily to the ambitious targets set for the current year. They also cite the lack of the expected momentum in the economy and insufficient enthusiasm among field-level officials to boost revenue by preventing evasion.

According to the latest data released by the NBR, revenue collection in December rose by just over 10% compared with the same month of the previous fiscal year. Growth rates in earlier months had been higher. In December alone, the shortfall against the target amounted to Tk15,181 crore.

Statistics show that against a target of Tk2,31,205 crore for the first six months, actual revenue collection stood at Tk1,85,229 crore. During this period, collection increased by over 14% compared with the same period last fiscal year.

However, to meet the overall target set for the NBR, revenue collection would need to grow by 53% compared with last year.

Experts say there is no precedent in Bangladesh's history for revenue growth at such a high rate.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Business Standard, "At the time of the last budget, we had already said that this target was unattainable. Later, another Tk55,000 crore was added to the target. As a result, the total target has become quite ambitious."

"As a result, there could be a large shortfall at the end of the year," he said.

He added, "There is no explanation as to what basis the government added an additional Tk55,000 crore to the NBR's target. It may have been done to align with IMF targets, but this is nothing more than 'eye-wash'."

Md Farid Uddin, a former member of the NBR, said, "There is no likelihood of such momentum in the economy over the next six months that would make it possible to achieve such a large target. This means the institution is heading towards a massive shortfall compared with the target."

He said that since the 2016–17 fiscal year, the government has been presenting large expenditure budgets, which led to correspondingly high revenue targets, resulting in deficits every year.

However, he noted that given the size of Bangladesh's economy, achieving this level of revenue collection is not impossible. But the necessary reforms have not been undertaken. As a result, it will not be possible to formalise the largely informal economy – accounting for more than half of economic activity – and revenue will not be collected in line with the targets.

A tax zone commissioner at the NBR, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that even the target set at the beginning of the year would have been difficult to achieve under the current circumstances. With the target later increased further, achieving it has become practically impossible.

At the start of the fiscal year, the NBR's revenue target was set at Tk4,99,000 crore. Last month, it was raised to Tk5,54,000 crore.

The official added that with an election scheduled for February, there are no signs of a sudden acceleration in the economy thereafter. Even if momentum does pick up, revenue collection will not increase at such a high rate in practical terms.

According to NBR data, in the first half of the fiscal year, income tax collection increased by 14.67%, VAT by nearly 20%, and import tax growth remained below 7%.

Gold prices surged to a record ‌above $4,800 per ounce on Wednesday, as investors sought the metal as a safe haven following a broad selloff in US assets amid heightened tensions between the US and NATO over Greenland.

Spot gold climbed 2.1 percent to $4,862.19 per ounce by 0837 GMT, after scaling a record $4,887.82 earlier in ‌the session. US gold futures for February delivery climbed 2.2 percent to $4,869.40 per ​ounce.

“It’s the loss of trust in the US caused by Trump’s moves over the weekend to tariff European countries and increase coercion in trying to take Greenland. (The move in ‍gold) reflects fears about global geopolitical (tensions),” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com.

On Tuesday, Trump said there was “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland, refusing to rule out taking the Arctic island by force and lashing out at NATO allies.

He later said, “we will work ‍something out where NATO is going to be very happy and where we’re going to be very ‌happy.” Meanwhile, ‌French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism of Trump’s threat of steep tariffs at Davos.

“I think crossing $4,800 just reinforces that people don’t want to sell gold before $5,000. It’s a combination of the traditional supporters for gold, which is rising debt, ​a weakening dollar and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

The dollar index languished at a near one-month low after White House threats over Greenland triggered a broad ‍selloff in US assets, from the currency to Wall Street stocks and Treasury bonds.

A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced metals cheaper for overseas buyers.

Tax compliance among the public will not improve unless transparency is ensured in how tax revenues collected from people are spent, economists said at a seminar in Dhaka today (21 January).

"As long as people can't see where the money collected from them is being spent, tax compliance will not develop," said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, professor at the Department of Development Studies of the University of Dhaka, at the seminar held at the Bangladesh Development Bank Limited (BDBL) building.

Titumir said taxpayers want to know whether their money is being spent for their benefit. Stating that people have lost trust in the revenue system, he said, "This is because there is no fairness in it."

Masud Khan, chairman of Unilever Consumer Care, raised similar concerns. "What do I receive in return for the tax I pay? In other countries, taxpayers receive many services for free," he said.

"If people could understand that paying tax brings them benefits, they would be more willing to pay," he added.

He said only 20% of tax-eligible people in the country currently pay taxes, while the burden created by the remaining 80% who do not pay falls on that 20%.

Participants said corruption and mismanagement in previous governments led to the wastage of taxpayers' money. They also criticised the National Board of Revenue's policy of collecting minimum tax, arguing it undermines fairness. It was noted that Bangladesh is the only country where minimum tax is collected in this way.

Minimum tax refers to tax deducted at source at a fixed rate. Even if a company makes less profit than the tax deducted – or incurs a loss – the deducted amount is not refunded. Speakers said this goes against the basic principle that tax should be paid on income, and that companies often face an effective tax rate higher than the official corporate tax rate.

Online returns

Masud Khan, also described the current online tax return filing system as difficult and confusing, contradicting repeated claims by National Board of Revenue Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan that it is easy.

After the event, Khan told The Business Standard, "My son lives in the US, where tax returns can be filed very easily."

"I asked for his help after failing to complete it myself. He said it was very complicated, and eventually even he could not do it," he added.

The NBR chairman has said at different programmes that "Anyone who can click the 'Like' button on Facebook can fill out an online tax return."

Khan said even after submitting a return, individuals and companies often do not know whether it has been finally accepted.

"After submission, the return may still be selected for audit by the commissionerate, tax intelligence, or the Central Intelligence Cell. Even after that, it may again be audited. As an assessee, I do not know when my return will finally be accepted," he said.

During the event, he highlighted various concerns and objections raised by businesspeople regarding Bangladesh's tax, customs, and VAT systems.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) began hearings yesterday with the top executives of nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) to determine whether there are grounds to oppose their planned liquidation.

The central bank had earlier sent letters asking the NBFIs to attend hearings scheduled yesterday and today at its Dhaka headquarters. Representatives from five finance companies attended yesterday’s session.

At the hearings, NBFIs are required to explain why they should not be liquidated, while BB officials present the case for winding them up, according to central bank officials familiar with the matter.

The nine NBFIs facing liquidation are FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

In November last year, the BB board approved the liquidation of the institutions under the newly framed Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, the country’s first comprehensive framework for resolving failing banks and NBFIs.

The ordinance outlines procedures for merging, restructuring or closing distressed institutions and sets out the hierarchy for repaying creditors after assets are sold.

Together, the nine institutions account for 52 percent, or Tk 25,089 crore, of total defaulted loans in the NBFI sector as of the end of 2024.

BB data show that as of September 2025, the country’s 35 NBFIs held Tk 29,408.66 crore in non-performing loans (NPLs), equivalent to 37.11 percent of their total disbursed loans of Tk 79,251.11 crore. The sector’s NPL ratio was 35.52 percent a year earlier.

Industry insiders attribute the surge in defaults to large-scale irregularities and scams during the previous government.

For instance, according to a BB probe, PK Halder, former managing director of NRB Global Bank (later Global Islami Bank), allegedly embezzled at least Tk 3,500 crore from four NBFIs – People’s Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, and BIFC.

These institutions are now severely distressed, with more than 90 percent of their loan portfolios non-performing.

BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur recently said individual depositors of the nine NBFIs slated for liquidation may get back their principal amounts before Ramadan in February.

Officials said the government has verbally approved around Tk 5,000 crore to repay non-bank depositors.

Central bank data show the nine NBFIs hold Tk 15,370 crore in deposits, of which Tk 3,525 crore belongs to individual depositors and Tk 11,845 crore to banks and corporate clients.

In May last year, BB warned 20 NBFIs with high levels of defaulted loans after they failed to repay depositors.