Amid record highs in the global market, gold prices soared to a new peak of Tk 269,788 per bhori in the local market, breaking all previous records.

Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) announced the new rate yesterday, made effective the same day.

The price has increased by 2.80 percent or Tk 7,348 per bhori (11.664 grammes) from the previous rate of Tk 262,440.

In the announcement, Bajus said prices of pure gold have increased in the market.

Gold prices shot to record levels above $5,200 in the international market yesterday, as investors sought a safe haven amid global political tensions.

Businesspeople said the country’s retail gold market has remained volatile in recent months, influenced by fluctuations in global gold prices, steadily rising costs of pure gold, and ongoing economic uncertainty.

Gold first crossed Tk 50,000 per bhori in January 2018. Five years later, in July 2023, it surpassed Tk 100,000.

Prices climbed to Tk 150,000 per bhori in February 2025 and later surged past the Tk 200,000 mark within the same year.

Adversity sometimes moves things along like nothing else. Under pressure from the threat of Washington’s tariffs, India and the European Union on Tuesday agreed the contours of a trade deal after muddling through stop-start negotiations for nearly 19 years. The deal could significantly ease market access for both partners sharing a 180 billion euro ($214 billion) trade relationship. Yet the handicaps that the South Asian country is trying to overcome by easing protectionism are precisely what skews the terms in Brussels’ favour.

India agreed to lower duties on high-end cars and liquor, which could improve the presence of European companies from Volkswagen to Renault that have so far found the world’s fifth largest economy difficult to tap. In exchange, it secured in one shot a major market for goods from shrimps to textiles that might get locked out of the US due to a punitive 50 percent tariff. Indian services firms will also gain steadier access to sectors from information technology to education.

The benefits seem lopsided, though. Most Indian goods only faced an average EU duty of only 3.3 percent, data by the World Trade Organization shows. Also, Brussels hasn’t acceded to easing its carbon tax rules. By contrast, European industries were subject to tariffs above 10 percent on average, with machinery and car makers facing duties of 44 percent and 110 percent, respectively. Those will now be slashed to zero and 10 percent.

The EU’s overall gains are still small, but the comparison with the less advantageous trade deal that Britain signed with India last year drives home the importance of having a big domestic market. Brussels could sell small concessions as big boons because it only exports 2 percent of its goods to India, while being home to 18 percent of Indian sales.

To be sure, New Delhi takes on limited risks. Indian farmers and dairy producers will remain protected even as import levies on less sensitive goods like olive oil and fruit juices gradually drop to zero. Car tariffs will come down slowly, buying time for local manufacturers like Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Mahindra & Mahindra to adjust, and will still apply to marques priced above 15,000 euros ($17,832).

For India, this is a long-term gamble to further its ambition of becoming an export powerhouse, which requires reversing weak foreign direct investment and bringing in superior technical knowhow in industries from car manufacturing to medical equipment. Exposure to the discipline of foreign markets, namely the EU’s strict health and safety rules, is a necessary step to ape the development experience of Japan, South Korea and China.

In the meantime, however, the poor quality of Indian products could make it hard to penetrate new markets. It’s one reason India’s trade deficit with the Association of South East Asian Nations has been growing despite safeguards from a deal signed in 2009. At least for now, Brussels seems to have gained the better end of the deal.

India and the European Union on January 27 announced the completion of a long-pending trade deal. The agreement is expected to double the EU’s goods exports to India by 2032 by eliminating or reducing tariffs in 96.6 percent of goods by value and save around 4 billion euros ($4.75 billion) per year in duties, the EU said.

The 27-nation bloc will cut duties on 99.5 percent of goods traded over seven years, with tariffs on Indian marine goods, leather and textile products, chemicals, rubber, base metals and gems and jewellery falling to zero on entry, India’s trade ministry said in a statement.

New Delhi will slash tariffs on cars to 10 percent over five years from as high as 110 percent, according to an EU statement. Levies on alcoholic beverages like wines will drop to 75 percent immediately from 150 percent, and will be lowered to 20 percent gradually, while those on spirits will be lowered to 40 percent, the statement added.

The government has drafted a comprehensive long-term plan aiming to transition the country's farming sector into a sustainable, innovation-driven, and highly productive industry by 2050.

The draft of the plan titled "Transforming Bangladesh Agriculture: Outlook 2050" was presented at a national workshop held at a hotel in Dhaka yesterday (28 January). The workshop was jointly organised by the agriculture ministry and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Participants were told that background studies were initially carried out across 13 thematic areas, including nutrition security, climate resilience, agricultural value addition, agricultural technology, agricultural education and skills development, and agricultural market management.

FAO and UNDP provided technical support for these studies, and detailed strategies and targets have been set for each theme.

For each thematic area, feasibility studies were conducted based on data analysis, trend assessment and demand-supply projections up to 2050.

As part of the process, regional consultation meetings were held across all 14 agricultural regions of the country to reflect agro-ecological conditions, farming practices and market realities. These consultations, with participation from farmers and other stakeholders, identified regional priorities, implementation challenges and investment opportunities.

Plan structure and consultation process

The plan has been divided into seven chapters, covering the background and formulation process, the current state of the agriculture sector, future challenges and opportunities, supporting policies and regulatory frameworks, integrated findings from the 13 thematic studies, phased implementation plans, and an investment framework aligned with national plans. It also includes a monitoring and evaluation mechanism to track progress and allow necessary adjustments.

At the workshop, Abu Noman Faruq Ahmmed, a registered trainer of GlobalGAP and a professor at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, presented papers on GAP, SPS compliance, pest management and soil health.

He said the target is to bring 3,00,000 hectares of land under Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) certification by 2028 to ensure food safety, while 70% of farmland is planned to be brought under integrated pest management and bio-pesticide use by 2050.

"To ensure safe food, we have set a target to bring three lakh hectares of land under GAP certification by 2028," Ahmmed said.

He added that soil health protection would focus on increasing soil organic matter, correcting salinity and acidity, and promoting balanced fertiliser use through digital soil health cards.

Long-term vision and implementation outlook

Addressing as chief guest, Agriculture Adviser Lieutenant General (retd) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury said, "The transformation of agriculture over the next 25 years will play a key role in improving living standards, ensuring food security and advancing rural development."

He added that successful implementation of the plan would be important not only for agriculture, but also for the country's overall economic progress.

Officials involved in drafting the plan said the Outlook 2050 was prepared through a participatory process at both national and regional levels. The process included consultations with ministries and departments, research institutions, the Department of Agricultural Extension, policymakers, researchers, academics, professional and business organisations, agricultural entrepreneurs, civil society representatives, media professionals, farmer organisations and development partners.

They said multiple workshops and discussion meetings were held to reflect regional and national needs and challenges, adding that feedback from the national workshop would also be incorporated into the final document.

Bangladesh received reduced foreign loans in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY) 2025-26 as the execution of foreign-funded projects under the Annual Development Programme (ADP) fell to its lowest level in at least five years.

During the July-December period, the country received $2.49 billion from international financial institutions, namely the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as well as bilateral lenders such as Russia, China, Japan, and India.

This represented a 29 percent year-on-year decline in fund releases, according to data from the Economic Relations Division (ERD) of the finance ministry.

During the same period, the implementation of foreign-funded ADP projects stood at 18.58 percent, down from 19.61 percent in the first half of FY2024-25, according to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division under the planning ministry.

Expenditure on projects tied to foreign loans also fell sharply in absolute terms amid political uncertainty.

Earlier this month, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) recommended giving top priority to implementing all foreign-funded ADP projects, citing the current state of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

ERD data showed that commitments of financing from international and bilateral lenders declined as lenders awaited the country’s political transition ahead of the national election scheduled for February 12.

ERD said funding promises fell 13 percent year-on-year to $1.99 billion during July-December of FY2025-26, with the ADB pledging $1.26 billion of the total.

Despite the decline in both commitments and disbursements, pressure to repay foreign loans increased.

Bangladesh’s debt servicing rose 11 percent year-on-year, amounting to $21.9 billion during the same period.

The finance ministry has instructed the Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd (CDBL) and other relevant stakeholders to assess the company’s potential and the appropriate timing for its listing on the stock market.

The directive came at a meeting held yesterday at the ministry, attended by Nazma Mobarek, secretary of the Financial Institutions Division, and Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, chairman of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission.

A ministry official, who was present at the meeting, confirmed to The Daily Star that the issue of CDBL’s listing was discussed, but no decision was taken.

Relevant stakeholders, including CDBL, have been asked to review the matter, the official added.

“Bringing a good company to the capital market is very important. If there are no obstacles, CDBL will be listed,” the official said, adding that the government advised stakeholders to consider the issue positively.

Stockbrokers have long been calling for the listing of CDBL, the country’s sole securities depository, which provides core depository services, including electronic settlement, delivery and transfer of securities through a book-entry system, enabling secure and efficient ownership transfers without physical certificates.

Established in 2000 with support from the Asian Development Bank and funding from major financial institutions, the company remains unlisted after 25 years.

The meeting also discussed transforming Central Counterparty Bangladesh Ltd (CCBL) into a subsidiary of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

Deliberations focused on how the institution could move forward while keeping its shareholding unchanged, reducing the size of its board, and strengthening coordination with DSE management.

Measures to develop the bond market were also discussed.

When asked whether there had been any discussion on merging the country’s two stock exchanges, the official said that no such discussion took place.

Representatives from the DSE, Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), CDBL and CCBL attended the meeting.

Power Grid Bangladesh PLC, a state-owned power transmission firm, reported that its net profit dropped by 72% year-on-year to Tk113 crore in the October-December of FY26.

According to the company's financial statement published on its website, its net profit dropped mainly due to high interest expense and low foreign exchange gain as well as rising transmission cost.

Besides, in the July-December of FY26, its net profit stood at Tk476 crore.

Berger Paints Bangladesh reported that its consolidated revenue rose by 4% year-on-year to Tk2,139 crore in the April-December of FY26 that ended on 31 March.

According to the company's financial statement published on its website, its consolidated net profit jumped by 8% to Tk267 crore and the consolidated earnings per share was Tk55.43 during the first nine months of this financial year.

Besides, in the October-December quarter, its consolidated revenue rose by 5% to Tk805 crore, while the consolidated net profit jumped by 26% to Tk118 crore.

The national committee tasked with restructuring Bangladesh's tax system has submitted a reform agenda to Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, proposing major structural changes to boost revenue mobilisation and reduce the economy's heavy reliance on indirect taxation.

The report, prepared by an 11-member taskforce led by Policy Research Institute (PRI) Chairman Dr Zaidi Sattar, sets ambitious targets to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 12% by 2030 and 15-20% by 2035, from the current level of around 10%.

It also recommends rebalancing the tax mix by increasing the share of direct taxes to 50% from the existing 30%, signalling a shift towards a more equitable and growth-friendly tax regime.

Titled "Tax Policy for Development: A Reform Agenda for Restructuring the Tax System", the report submitted today (27 January) describes Bangladesh's tax system as unnecessarily complex, inefficient and overly dependent on indirect taxes.

It argues that incremental or piecemeal changes will not be enough to support long-term economic transformation, calling instead for fundamental and structural reforms.

The taskforce identified 55 policy issues, with seven flagged as immediate priorities.

Key recommendations include simplifying the tax system through greater digitalisation and automation, introducing artificial intelligence-based risk analysis, expanding risk-based audits and rationalising tax incentives.

The report also proposes a strategic shift away from trade-based taxation towards stronger domestic tax mobilisation.

On customs reforms, the report suggests modernising the tariff structure and applying equal effective protection for export-oriented and import-substituting industries. It also proposes moving away from port-based enforcement towards post-clearance audits and argues that a separate valuation database for cargo clearance is unnecessary.

In the area of value-added tax, the taskforce recommends a gradual transition from the current multi-rate VAT regime to a single-rate system, saying this would reduce complexity and lower compliance costs for businesses.

Receiving the report, Chief Adviser Yunus said the interim government had limited time but intended to initiate the implementation process.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed said the report would serve as a guideline for improving both revenue collection and governance.

Officials from the Internal Resources Division noted that the document clearly diagnoses existing weaknesses in the tax system and offers a roadmap for reform.

Revenue up Tk23,000cr

Meanwhile, the National Board of Revenue, in a detailed briefing sent to Chief Adviser Yunus last Sunday, said its reform initiatives have produced positive results in revenue collection, with government revenue increasing by Tk23,020 crore in the first six months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period a year earlier.

The revenue authority stated that total collections between July and December 2025 reached Tk1,85,229 crore, attributing the increase to structural reforms in revenue management, digitalisation, measures to curb tax evasion and taxpayer-friendly initiatives.

However, economists and former officials have questioned the claim, arguing that the higher growth rate largely reflects a low base in the previous fiscal year rather than the immediate impact of reforms.

According to experts, it was too early for reforms to have such an effect.

Dr Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), told The Business Standard, "Even if some reforms have been undertaken, their results would not come this quickly. It would take more time."

"The growth we are seeing is mainly due to low revenue collection last year. That low base is why the current growth rate appears higher," he said.

As per NBR data, revenue collection during the first half of FY2024-25 (July-December) did not increase; instead, it declined by about 1%.

A former senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, echoed that view, saying, "The revenue growth being observed is not due to new reforms."

He rather questioned whether any effective reform had been implemented over the past year.

Structural reforms, legal changes

In its briefing, the NBR highlighted the separation of revenue policy from revenue administration as a major milestone. It noted that the issuance of the Revenue Policy and Revenue Management (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025 had formally divided policy formulation from implementation.

The decision was approved at a meeting of the National Implementation Committee for Administrative Reforms (Nicar), chaired by the chief adviser, paving the way for long-awaited structural reforms within the NBR.

The revenue authority also said the government had moved to curb tax exemptions by introducing the Tax Expenditure Policy and Management Framework, which has been published in the official gazette.

Amendments to the Income Tax Act, the Customs Act and the VAT Act have withdrawn the NBR's authority to grant tax exemptions, it said, adding that any future exemptions will require parliamentary approval.

Digitalisation drive

The NBR said it has undertaken a major digitalisation programme under the World Bank-funded Strengthening Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Project, with an estimated cost of nearly Tk1,000 crore.

The project aims to modernise income tax, VAT and customs operations. Measures such as e-returns, online payments, e-refunds, VAT smart invoices and risk-based audits have reduced hassle for taxpayers, the authority said.

In customs, the launch of the Bangladesh Single Window has enabled certificates, licences and permits from 19 agencies to be issued online. Around 900,000 certificates have been issued so far, with most applications processed within one hour to one day, according to the NBR.

In the VAT sector, a special registration drive led to the issuance of 131,000 new VAT registrations in December 2025 alone, raising the total number of registered entities to 775,000.

The NBR said mandatory online submission of income tax returns has resulted in more than 34 lakh e-returns being filed so far.

An email-based one-time password system has also been introduced for expatriate Bangladeshis, making overseas filing easier. More than 5,000 expatriate taxpayers have already used the facility, it said.

The introduction of a risk-based audit system has made the audit selection process more transparent, the authority added.

Duty, tax relief measures

The government has also provided duty and tax relief in several areas, the NBR said.

These include excise duty exemptions on air tickets and related services for Hajj pilgrims, reduced customs duty and advance income tax on date imports ahead of Ramadan, and duty-tax relief on essential commodities.

Customs duty on mobile phone imports has been cut from 25% to 10%, resulting in an overall import duty reduction of up to 60%, according to the NBR.

The authority said the benefits of these measures were already visible in higher revenue collection, increased taxpayer confidence and a more business-friendly environment, and would help raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio over the medium and long term.

Bangladesh’s economy is showing signs of stabilisation, yet risks and uncertainties remain, and long-term challenges require urgent attention, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud has cautioned.

“Inflation, while easing slowly from 11 percent to around 8 percent, is unlikely to drop quickly due to continued high price expectations. Wages are adjusting to inflation, showing the economy has moved into a new phase,” he said, speaking at a seminar yesterday.

Titled “Economic Stability and the Challenges of the Next Government”, the seminar was organised by the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF) at the National Life Insurance Auditorium in Dhaka. The ERF Scholarship Award 2026 ceremony was also held.

“GDP growth may reach 5 percent this fiscal year, but I don’t see it as the most reliable indicator. Other markers like imports of industrial raw materials, capital machinery, exports, reserves, and exchange rate give a clearer picture,” the adviser added.

On monetary policy, he noted that the current 10 percent policy interest rate may be unnecessarily high as credit growth remains weak. “SMEs are struggling while RMG exporters are benefiting from a favourable exchange rate,” he added.

Mahmud criticised the hidden costs of stabilisation, including bank recapitalisation using printed money, calling them “invisible but long-lasting consequences” of previous economic mismanagement.

On governance, he remarked, “This is an exceptional government -- neither fully political nor an NGO model. It came out of a mass uprising and is trying to uphold constitutionalism. We’ve never seen this kind of government before.”

He stressed that without major investment in education and skills, the country risks wasting its demographic dividend. He also highlighted progress in public procurement reforms and solar power integration, but cautioned that corruption and inefficiency must be addressed for reforms to succeed.

Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of East Coast Group, stressed the need for broader engagement in economic policymaking, including participation from all political parties and the private sector, to ensure future macroeconomic stability in Bangladesh.

He said discussions around macroeconomic challenges should involve political leaders from across the spectrum. “They must be aware of the current state of the economy and what challenges await in the future,” he noted.

The businessman pointed out that while Bangladesh has adopted some of the IMF’s recommendations, key structural reforms remain pending.

He highlighted inefficiencies and harassment in the business environment. “Even after paying taxes and submitting documents, importers face delays due to unnecessary bureaucracy and interference. These are micro-level operational issues that need urgent simplification,” he urged.

On the energy crisis, Chowdhury said, “There’s no LNG, no LPG, no infrastructure. The interim government has not engaged with the private sector or given clear policy directions. When the next government takes power, how will it manage this?”

Tofazzal Hossain, Chairman of NLICL, called for ethical reform and integrity in Bangladesh’s financial sector, warning against politically motivated bank licensing and poor governance.

Shamsul Haque Zahid, editor of The Financial Express, said the interim government inherited a fragile, near-collapsing economy which it managed to stabilise -- but true recovery remains distant.

He pointed to persistent high inflation, low private investment, and weak job creation, and cautioned that the next elected government will face these issues as legacy burdens.

“The new government may struggle in its first two to three years before achieving stability and growth,” Zahid estimated.

Daulat Akhter Mala, president of ERF, chaired the event, and Abul Kashem, general secretary of ERF, moderated the event. Among others, Syed Abdul Monem, acting managing director of BRAC Bank, and M Kamal Uddin Jasim, additional managing director (AMD) of Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, also spoke at the event.

Government officials are increasingly unwilling to serve as project directors (PDs) as new policies involving local beneficiaries have led to heightened public scrutiny and questioning regarding the quality of construction materials used in development works.

Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud came up with the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at a seminar titled "Economic Stability and Challenges for the Next Government" organised by the Economic Reporters Forum in the capital today (28 January).

He noted that beneficiaries are now directly involved in monitoring development works and often question the quality of materials used in projects, including bricks and stone chips.

"As a result, no official wants to become a PD," he said, adding that this has slowed the pace of government project execution.

Former planning secretary Mamun Al Rashid, when asked about the issue, told TBS that the post of project director remains attractive in terms of decision-making authority, financial and administrative power, and logistical support.

"However, many officials are reluctant to assume such responsibilities due to the risks involved," he said.

Mamun explained that project implementation entails managing large sums of public funds under strict timelines and resource constraints.

A major component of any development project is procurement of goods, services and works, which requires in-depth knowledge of public procurement rules and coordination with various committees formed under the Public Procurement Rules, he said.

"Procurement is the most vital and risky part of project implementation," the former planning secretary said, adding that officials often fear future allegations of corruption, which could result in dismissal or even imprisonment.

Economic challenges

At the seminar, Wahiduddin said that although the economy has begun to recover, significant structural challenges persist. He observed that during the previous administration, discipline in the financial sector had collapsed due to money laundering and mismanagement, leaving the banking sector in a fragile state.

The adviser said that corrective measures taken by the current government have brought relative stability.

Imports of industrial raw materials have risen, export growth has been sustained, foreign exchange transactions are stable, and reserves are gradually increasing, he said, adding that GDP growth is expected to approach 5%, while the exchange rate remains steady.

GDP growth is expected to stay near 5%, and while reserves are used for debt repayment, the central bank is actively purchasing dollars to stabilise the situation, he said.

The adviser noted that inflation is declining "slowly" due to "price expectations" and a self-generating cycle. He suggested that the policy rate, currently at 10%, should be reviewed to protect small and medium enterprises (SMEs), as private sector credit growth has fallen to around 6%.

The adviser expressed grave concern over Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio, which remains among the lowest in the developing world at 7% to 8%.

"Our entire revenue is consumed by operational expenses; education, health, and development are funded entirely by loans, which is unsustainable," he warned.

Regarding energy, he noted that no new gas fields have been discovered in 15 years. While wind power remains unfeasible for large-scale use, a new ordinance now allows the private sector to produce and sell solar power, despite initial objections from the Bangladesh Power Development Board.

Corruption

Wahiduddin said that during the current government's tenure, large-scale corruption has decreased. "However, other forms of corruption persist. There is 'case trading' (legal harassment for profit) and 'transfer trading.' For instance, it takes Tk8 lakh to secure a transfer at a college."

He added, "I told the intelligence agencies, but they could not root these out."

Drawing from his experience serving as the education adviser, Wahiduddin said that the education ministry receives hundreds of solicitations for favours. "Previously, work would be done for a fixed sum of money without the need to visit the ministry. Now, everyone says a 'new opportunity' has arisen, so they flock to the ministry in person."

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has said its reform initiatives have produced positive results in revenue collection, with government revenue increasing by Tk23,020 crore in the first six months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period last year.

In a detailed briefing sent to Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus on Sunday (25 January), the revenue authority attributed this to structural reforms in revenue management, digitalisation, measures to curb tax evasion and taxpayer-friendly initiatives.

According to the NBR, total revenue collection from July to December 2025 stood at Tk1,85,229 crore, marking a notable rise from the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

One of the major milestones of the reform process, the NBR said, is the decision to separate revenue policy from revenue administration.

The briefing noted that the issuance of the Revenue Policy and Revenue Management (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025 formally separated policy formulation from implementation.

The decision's approval came at a meeting of the National Implementation Committee for Administrative Reforms (NICAR), chaired by the chief adviser, paving the way for long-awaited structural reforms within the NBR.

Major investment in digital revenue system

The NBR said that to fully digitise revenue management, a World Bank-funded project titled Strengthening Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Project (SDRMP) has been undertaken at a cost of nearly Tk1,000 crore. The project aims to modernise income tax, VAT and customs operations.

The introduction of e-returns, online payments, e-refunds, VAT smart invoices and risk-based audits has reduced taxpayer hassle, the NBR added.

Parliamentary approval mandatory for tax exemptions

To move away from tax exemptions, the government has formulated the Tax Expenditure Policy and Management Framework and published it in the official gazette, the NBR said.

Amendments to the Income Tax Act, Customs Act and VAT Act have withdrawn the NBR's authority to grant tax exemptions, it added, mentioning that from now on, no tax exemption can be granted without parliamentary approval.

Customs and VAT

With the launch of the Bangladesh Single Window (BSW), certificates, licences and permits from 19 agencies are now being issued online.

So far around 900,000 certificates have been issued digitally, with most applications processed within one hour to one day, the NBR said.

In the VAT sector, a special registration campaign led to the issuance of 1,31,000 new VAT registrations in December 2025 alone, raising the total number of VAT-registered entities to 775,000.

Response to e-returns in income tax

Mandatory online income tax return submission has resulted in more than 34 lakh e-returns being filed so far, the NBR said.

An email-based OTP system for expatriate Bangladeshis has made overseas filing easier, with over 5,000 expatriate taxpayers already using the facility, it added.

The NBR stated that the introduction of a risk-based audit system has also made the audit selection process more transparent.

Duty and tax relief for business and public interest

The government has granted excise duty exemptions on air tickets and related services for Hajj pilgrims, reduced customs duty and advance income tax on date imports ahead of Ramadan, and provided duty-tax relief on essential commodities.

Additionally, customs duty on mobile phone imports has been reduced from 25% to 10%, resulting in an overall import duty reduction of up to 60%.

According to the NBR, the benefits of these reforms are already being reflected in higher revenue collection, increased taxpayer confidence and a more business-friendly environment.

The briefing noted that in the medium and long term, these reforms will play a crucial role in increasing the revenue-to-GDP ratio.

Bangladesh's external financing situation is showing clear signs of stress. In the first half of the 2025-26 fiscal year, for every $100 received in foreign loans, $88 was used for debt repayment, leaving the country with only a marginal net inflow.

According to the latest Foreign Assistance Monthly Report published by the Economic Relations Division (ERD), total aid disbursement stood at $2.5 billion during the period, while debt servicing amounted to $2.2 billion. As a result, net foreign inflow was limited to just 12% of total disbursements, highlighting shrinking fiscal space and limited support for development expenditure.

On top of debt repayment pressure, a decline in foreign commitments and disbursements is compounding the situation.

Economists warn that when such a large share of foreign borrowing is absorbed by repayments, the government's ability to finance infrastructure and social programmes is significantly constrained. This underscores the urgent need for more prudent borrowing, faster project implementation, and diversification into concessional and alternative financing sources.

Mustafa K Mujeri, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, noted that repayment pressure has increased as grace periods for several mega projects and budget-support loans taken by the previous government have started to expire.

Meanwhile, debt servicing obligations rose to $2.20 billion, up from $1.98 billion in the first half of FY2024–25. Both principal and interest payments increased, placing renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves and reducing net aid inflows to only $300m.

Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud today (28 January) said at an event organised by the Economic Reporters Forum that despite having opportunities to borrow externally, the current government is limiting development project loans to reduce pressure from debt repayments.

Earlier, following a meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec), the planning adviser told reporters that foreign loans would only be taken for projects that are technologically complex, impossible to finance domestically, and capable of generating investment, exports, and foreign exchange earnings.

He said the government has decided to reduce dependence on foreign borrowing for social sectors such as education and health, opting instead for domestic financing.

As a result, several foreign-funded projects were recently sent back without approval at Ecnec meetings.

"Poorly prepared projects often face complications during implementation. For this reason, the government is refraining from negotiating with development partners on many projects," the ERD official said.

ERD officials added that grace periods for several projects – including the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant – will expire over the next one to two years, which will significantly increase debt repayment pressure.

They said debt servicing is expected to approach $5 billion in the current fiscal year and will continue to rise in the coming years.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said, "The near-equalisation of loan disbursement and repayment is a growing concern for Bangladesh's fiscal health. Fiscal space is already tight, and as the country aims to move toward higher-middle-income status, significant public investment is needed in human capital, infrastructure, and institutional capacity. Sustaining growth requires expanding the public investment budget."

Past reliance on external loans for projects with poor feasibility or weak returns has increased debt service obligations, further constraining fiscal space, he said.

The government should also explore alternative financing beyond traditional borrowing, including local and international capital markets, he noted. "Diversifying financing channels will reduce fiscal vulnerability and strengthen resilience. A balanced approach combining better revenue, efficient spending, debt management, and diversified funding is critical for Bangladesh's sustainable growth and transition to higher-middle-income status."

Election behind the decline in foreign commitments?

Foreign aid commitments declined to $1.99 billion in the first half of FY26 from $2.30 billion a year earlier, while grant inflows fell sharply from $290m to just $95m. Loan commitments also declined slightly, indicating continued dependence on borrowing even as concessional aid dries up.

Mustafa K Mujeri said a major reason behind the decline in foreign commitments and disbursements is election-related uncertainty.

"During election periods and interim phases, new project approvals, fresh loan agreements, or renegotiations usually do not take place. Development partners are also reluctant to make new commitments, as they wait to see what policies and priorities the incoming government will set," he said.

He added that although the previous fiscal year was already challenging, the picture for commitments and disbursements in the first half of the current fiscal year is even weaker.

"In other words, although the overall situation may appear somewhat stable, this stability has not yet been reflected in foreign loan inflows."

Mujeri further said that until a new government formally assumes office, there is little chance of a significant improvement in foreign loan commitments or disbursements. Development partners want clarity on policy direction, project priorities, and reform agendas before engaging in new financing.

"Most of the current commitments and disbursements stem from earlier negotiations or pre-existing agreements," he said.

ERD sources said that foreign loan commitments were low last fiscal year due to the mass uprising, fall of the government, administrative instability, and a confidence deficit among development partners. This year, however, the government is deliberately reducing the number of foreign-funded projects to ease repayment pressure, which has contributed to lower loan commitments in the current fiscal year.

A senior ERD official told The Business Standard that foreign loan commitments declined in the first six months of the current fiscal year because the government is avoiding project loans without adequate preparation.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Wednesday to foster sustainable finance and develop the thematic bond market in Bangladesh.

The agreement, titled 'Sustainable Finance Collaboration,' was signed at the BSEC headquarters in Agargaon, Dhaka. BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood and UNDP Bangladesh Resident Representative Stefan Liller signed the document on behalf of their respective organisations.

Under the MoU, UNDP Bangladesh will provide comprehensive technical assistance to introduce a sustainable finance and investment taxonomy. The collaboration aims to support thematic bond issuers – covering green, social, climate, and SDG bonds – throughout the entire process, from pre-issuance to post-issuance.

Key areas of cooperation include training for BSEC officials and stakeholders, sharing experiences from other emerging economies, and ensuring the proper utilisation of funds raised through these bonds.

The partnership will also focus on enhancing project monitoring, bond reporting, and introducing international-standard impact measurement and management frameworks. Furthermore, UNDP will help develop third-party verification systems and risk mitigation strategies for issuers.

Speaking at the event, BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood said the commission is committed to the continuous improvement of market management.

"We are working to build a strong and credible market structure by strengthening good governance, increasing transparency, and boosting investor confidence," Maqsood said.

He added that the partnership would ensure a supportive and predictable regulatory environment, ultimately establishing the capital market as a primary source for long-term financing and thematic bond development.

UNDP Resident Representative Stefan Liller highlighted the untapped potential of the local capital market in raising long-term capital for high-impact environmental and social investments.

"Increasing investment in various sectors, including addressing climate-related risks, is essential to sustain economic momentum, graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, and avoid the middle-income trap," Liller said.

He noted that thematic bonds could play a catalytic role in raising both domestic and international capital.

The signing ceremony was attended by UNDP Country Economic Advisor Owais Parray, BSEC Commissioners Ali Akbar and Farzana Lalarukh, along with senior officials from both institutions.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (27 January) decided to downgrade Desh Garments to the Z category from B category, after the company failed to disburse approved dividends to their shareholders.

In FY25, the company recommended a 3% cash dividend to their general shareholders other than sponsors and directors of the company.

According to the DSE, after declaring dividend in its board meeting and obtaining approval from general shareholders at the annual general meeting (AGM), the company failed to disburse the dividend to their shareholders within the stipulated timeframe.

As per listing regulations, listed companies must disburse declared or approved dividends within 30 days of approval at their AGM.

Due to the failure to disburse dividends on time, the DSE downgraded this company to the Z category.

A company falls into the Z category if the firm fails to hold an AGM, fail to declare any dividend based on annual performance, have not been in operation continuously for more than six months, or accumulate losses that exceed its paid-up capital after adjusting revenue reserve.

Yesterday, the share price of the company increased 1.97% to Tk113.80 on the Dhaka stock exchange.

A company official said, seeking anonymity that this issue will be resolved within a week. However, the official did not share how much has been disbursed to their shareholders within the stipulated timeframe.

In the July-September quarter, the company made revenue of Tk21.68 crore, which was Tk16.11 crore in the same period of the previous year.

In this quarter, the company made a profit of Tk3.62 lakh and its earnings per share stood at Tk0.04.

Its net asset value per share stood at Tk157.03 at the end of September 2025.

SoftBank Group Corp is in talks to invest as much as an ​additional $30 billion in OpenAI, a person familiar with ‌the matter said on Tuesday, as the Japanese conglomerate doubles down on its bet on the ChatGPT owner.

The fresh investment would form part of a funding round that could raise ‌up to $100 billion for OpenAI, valuing it at about $830 ​billion, the person said.

The source declined to be identified as the information had not been publicly disclosed.

Seeking to improve ‍SoftBank’s position in the artificial intelligence race, Chief Executive Masayoshi Son has made an “all-in” bet on OpenAI. In December, SoftBank said it had completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, giving it an 11 percent stake.

OpenAI ‍is grappling with rising costs to train and run its AI models ‌as ‌competition from Alphabet’s Google ratchets up.

The news was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

SoftBank, whose shares were up 3.5 percent in Tokyo morning trade, declined to comment.

Reuters reported last month that Son had scrambled to marshal ​the funds for the previous investment, slowing most other dealmaking at SoftBank’s Vision Fund to a crawl.

Both OpenAI and SoftBank are also ‍investors in Stargate, a $500 billion initiative to build AI data centers for training and inference that executives say is crucial to the ​US government’s ambitions to keep ahead ‍of China in AI.

Bangladesh is facing a fiscal squeeze as foreign aid receipts declined during the first half (H1) of the current fiscal year, while the burden of repaying international debts reached new heights.

The country now faces a new challenge marked by a significant drop in new funding commitments and escalating debt servicing bills, according to provisional data from the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

As inflow slows, the cost of servicing the existing debt is rising rapidly.

Debt servicing payments jumped by 26.40 per cent to $1.98 billion in the first half of FY26, the ERD data shows.

Due to currency depreciation and rising interest rates, the cost in domestic currency skyrocketed by 37.32 per cent, reaching Tk 236.75 billion compared to Tk 172.41 billion in the previous fiscal year.

Rising global interest rates and continued pressure on the exchange rate have been cited as the primary reasons for the Tk 64.35 billion increase in repayment costs.

According to the ERD, total foreign aid disbursement during the July-December period of FY26 dropped to $3.53 billion, a 13.08 per cent decline from the $4.06 billion received during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

The decline was primarily driven by a sharp reduction in loan disbursements, which fell by nearly 16 per cent to $3.26 billion.

While grant disbursements saw a 48.54 per cent increase to $270.64 million, this was not enough to offset the substantial shortfall in loan-based funding.

The outlook for future funding appears even more constrained, and fresh aid commitments from development partners plummeted by 67.11 per cent in the first half of this fiscal year.

New agreements involving $2.3 billion were signed, down from $6.99 billion in the first half of the previous fiscal year, the ERD data shows.

Loan commitments have seen the most drastic reduction, falling by 69.47 per cent.

Grant commitments also decreased by 29.30 per cent.

Analysts note that while commitments were "almost stagnant" for the first five months of the fiscal year, they began to accelerate in December following new agreements with the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Despite the overall decline, some partners remained major contributors to the country's development budget.

The ADB ranked first in disbursements, providing $1.05 billion, while the World Bank followed with $801 million in disbursements and led in new commitments with deals involving $914.50 million.

Russia ranked third in disbursement with $532 million, the ERD data shows.

The widening gap between aid receipts and debt obligations reflects the growing "fiscal pressure" cited in recent government reports.

With unused foreign funds still totalling over $43 billion due to slow project implementation, the government faces increasing urgency to improve its "absorption efficiency" to mitigate the impacts of rising repayment costs and shrinking new aid.

Bangladesh’s foreign debt repayment crossed the $2 billion mark in the first six months of the current fiscal year (FY), as the government continues to face mounting pressure from rising external liabilities.

According to the latest updated report published by the Economic Relations Division (ERD) on Wednesday, Bangladesh repaid a total of $2.19 billion—equivalent to $2.195 billion—towards principal and interest payments between July and December of the ongoing fiscal year.

This amount is $210 million higher than the repayment made during the same period of the previous fiscal year, UNB reports.

The report highlights that external debt servicing has been increasing steadily over the past several years.

In the last fiscal year alone, Bangladesh had to repay more than $4 billion in foreign loans.

ERD data show that Bangladesh received about $2.5 billion in foreign loan disbursements from development partners and donor countries during the July–December period.

However, nearly the same amount—around $2.2 billion—was spent on repaying earlier loans, indicating that most of the inflows were absorbed by debt servicing rather than financing new development activities.

In terms of fresh commitments, Bangladesh received a total of $1.99 billion in loan pledges during the first six months of the current fiscal year.

This marks a decline compared to $2.30 billion in commitments recorded during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

ERD officials said that in December alone, the country secured $770 million in foreign loan commitments.

Among the development partners, Russia emerged as the largest lender in terms of disbursement during the six-month period, releasing $576 million.

The World Bank followed closely with $550 million, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) disbursed $520 million.

Other notable contributors include China, which released $220 million, and India, which disbursed $105 million. Japan provided $120 million during the same period.

ERD sources, however, noted that none of the major bilateral partners, including India, China, Russia and Japan, made any new loan commitments during the July–December period.

Despite the absence of fresh pledges, these countries continued to release funds against previously committed loans.

Besides, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) did not make any new loan commitments to Bangladesh during the first half of the current fiscal year.

Officials said the growing gap between disbursements and repayments underscores the increasing strain on Bangladesh’s external debt management, at a time when foreign exchange reserves remain under pressure.

Elon Musk's SpaceX is weighing a mid-June initial public offering, aiming to raise as much as $50 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion, the Financial Times said on (28 January), citing people familiar with the matter.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. SpaceX did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

The reported fundraising target doubles prior reports, positioning the rocket and satellite company's listing as ‌the largest in history in terms of deal size, after Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019.

The IPO gave Aramco a $1.7 trillion market capitalisation, and it was the only completed deal to have ‍achieved a valuation of more than $1 trillion.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has held talks and Zoom calls with existing private investors since December to explore ⁠a mid-2026 IPO, the newspaper added.

While Musk has long expressed a ‍preference for keeping SpaceX private, people familiar with his thinking indicated that the ‌company's ‌growing valuation and the success of its Starlink satellite-internet service have prompted a shift in strategy.

SpaceX is lining up four Wall Street banks for leading roles in its market debut, Reuters reported last week, citing a ⁠source.

Global financial markets ⁠are bracing for a year of potentially mega US listings, led by SpaceX, with artificial intelligence firms Anthropic and OpenAI also laying early groundwork for potential IPOs.

A rebound in the ‍US equity capital market activity began in 2025 after three years of limited activity, partially as the result of ongoing volatility and geopolitical tensions.

Space technology is a tightly held sector but is sought after ‍by investors keen for exposure in light of rapid development prospects, analysts have said.

Boeing said on Wednesday it expects airlines in India and South Asia to add 3,290 commercial jets to their fleets over the next 20 years, as resilient economic growth, a burgeoning middle class and a wave of first-time flyers drive air travel demand.

This compares with Boeing's previous rolling 20-year market outlook, which projected demand for 2,835 jets.

With the national election two weeks away, Bangladesh's stock market is trading at valuation levels last seen two decades ago, yet investor confidence remains conspicuously absent.

Defying the pre-election rallies seen in the recent past, the benchmark DSEX has remained under pressure, exposing a market weighed down not just by political uncertainty but also by deeper economic and structural weaknesses.

Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) show the market's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio slid to 8.6 times by the end of November 2025 – near its lowest point since January 2004 and far below the long-term average of 15-20 times.

Despite such low valuations, turnover has remained muted and selling pressure has dominated most sessions in recent weeks, signalling a lack of confidence among both retail and institutional investors.

Market participants say the failure of cheap valuations to trigger a rebound reflects a convergence of headwinds: elevated interest rates that have pushed risk-free government bond yields above 10%, losses that have weakened institutional balance sheets, reduced foreign investor participation, and concerns over earnings quality, particularly in banks and financial institutions.

As a result, expectations of a post-election recovery now hinge less on sentiment and more on whether macroeconomic stability and policy support materialise.

Professor Abu Ahmed, a former teacher of economics at the University of Dhaka and the current chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), told The Business Standard that most stocks remain undervalued, with some blue-chip shares trading at discounts of 30% to 40%.

He expressed the hope that, after the election, the new government would take steps to support the capital market and the broader economy, including a shift from contractionary to expansionary monetary policy and a lower interest rate regime for treasury bill and bond market, which could help divert funds back into equities.

Analysts say the capital market is currently deeply depressed, marked by low participation from institutional investors, a lack of fresh fund inflows, reduced foreign investment, and a challenging situation for large investors, many of whom have seen over 30% erosion in their portfolios and remain stuck amid prolonged volatility.

Moreover, government treasury bills and bonds are now offering risk-free returns of over 10%, with yields going as high as 12%, attracting institutional investors seeking secure earnings amid a volatile market.

Asif Khan, chairman of EDGE Asset Management Company, told TBS, "It is true that the market has been fairly weak recently. Most investors cite political uncertainty, high interest rates, and other factors as the main causes."

Referring to DSE data, he noted that the market's P/E ratio stood at just 8.6 times in November, one of the lowest levels in the past 20 years. He also pointed out that the market has remained bearish for four consecutive years, from 2021 to 2025.

"Some monetary easing and a smooth election could pave the way for a strong year for the DSE in 2026," he said.

Pre-election pattern breaks

Historically, the capital market has often gained momentum in the month before national elections. Data show that under the interim government in December 2008, ahead of the ninth parliamentary election, the DSEX rose by more than 250 points.

This time, however, the pattern has reversed. The current election is also scheduled under an interim government, but the market has been volatile in the run-up to polling.

In December, over 20 trading sessions, the DSEX lost a total of 299 points in 13 sessions, while gaining 223 points in the remaining sessions, resulting in a net decline of 76 points.

According to recent DSE data, following the announcement of the election schedule, stocks traded for 22 consecutive days, with 12 sessions ending in declines and the index remaining largely in negative territory.

Looking back, the DSEX rose by 252 points during the election month of December 2008. Before the tenth national election in January 2014, the index gained 83 points, while ahead of the eleventh election in December 2018, it rose by 94.8 points. Before the last election in January 2024, the index increased by 21 points.

An exception to the recent weakness was seen on Sunday, the first trading day of the week, when the DSEX jumped by 76 points as several blue-chip and insurance stocks surged.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association, told TBS that the capital market has historically gained momentum ahead of elections, driven by hopes surrounding new government and policy expectations.

"This year, the capital market has yet to gain election momentum, but I hope it will pick up once the election manifestos are released," he said.

However, he cautioned that investors must act responsibly during trading.

"During the last two major market debacles in 1996 and 2010, momentum built up before the elections, but the market eventually suffered afterwards," he said.

Saiful also pointed to a shortage of quality stocks. "We have urged the listing of good, fundamentally strong companies, but uncertainty remains over how many banks and non-bank financial institutions will survive. Most stocks are now junk, which discourages investors."

"Moreover, high interest rates are creating obstacles to channeling funds into the capital market, as many large investors prefer treasury bonds and bills," he added.

Still, he hoped for a rebound after the election if the new government takes steps to develop the market.

Economic headwinds cloud outlook

Calling the current situation unusual, Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, told TBS that the market ahead of this election looks very different from previous cycles.

"Earlier elections were largely routine, but the situation this time is different," he said, pointing to strong economic headwinds, including the highest level of non-performing loans in the region, sluggish private sector credit growth, and challenges such as the energy crisis, all of which are weighing on business expansion and investment.

"While the capital market may experience temporary momentum before or after the election, sustaining it requires improvements in macroeconomic conditions. Any short-term rally alone will not be sustainable," he added.

Akramul also noted that interest rates on treasury bonds need to fall, as investors earning 11% to 12% risk-free returns are unlikely to move into equities. At the same time, private sector credit growth must pick up, alongside a broader shift from contractionary to expansionary policies to encourage investment.

Nazrul Islam, former president of the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association, echoed similar concerns, saying many institutions remain on the sidelines because they lack the capacity to inject fresh funds after suffering losses from recent volatility.

He said around 50% institutions have experienced significant portfolio erosion. "Despite what appears to be a better time to invest now, they are unable to participate due to a lack of fresh funds," he said.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm, speaking on condition of anonymity, added that the recent merger of five banks has severely affected investors, with some investments wiped out entirely.

He further noted that the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, which plays a key role in supporting the capital market, is itself under strain and seeking government support.

"Without fresh fund inflows, the capital market cannot remain vibrant or gain momentum," he said.