Bangladesh risks losing its trade competitiveness unless it urgently reduces high logistics costs, closes policy implementation gaps, and accelerates private-sector-led infrastructure development, experts warned at a focus group discussion organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh (AmCham) yesterday (3 February).

Opening the discussion, Syed Ershad Ahmed, president of AmCham Bangladesh, said logistics remains the backbone of supply chains and economic activity but continues to lag behind regional peers. Drawing on over three decades of experience, he noted that despite gradual progress, Bangladesh's logistics sector is still poorly understood domestically and insufficiently prepared for rapid global shifts driven by artificial intelligence, automation, decarbonisation, geopolitics, and supply-chain resilience.

He stressed the need to bridge knowledge and capacity gaps to support growing trade and investment needs.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, highlighted the scale of the challenge, saying logistics efficiency is central to export growth through lower costs, faster delivery, and productivity gains. He pointed out that Bangladesh's heavy reliance on the Dhaka–Chattogram corridor, which handles nearly 70% of national trade, poses a structural risk. Disruptions such as the recent Chattogram port labour strike demonstrate the fragility of the system.

Reaz also flagged gaps in implementing the National Logistics Policy, including government monopolies in rail and air cargo, weak inter-ministerial coordination, and the absence of a central logistics authority.

He called for greater private and foreign investment, particularly in cold chains and rail logistics, increased automation, and expert-led infrastructure planning, citing projects such as the Matarbari Deep Sea Port, Bay Container Terminal, and the third terminal at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport as key opportunities.

Focusing on air logistics, Mahbubul Anam, managing director of CF Global, said costs at Dhaka airport are 20–25% higher than road transport, underscoring the need for stronger public-private coordination, supportive policies, and adequate equipment. He warned that growing e-commerce demand for express logistics will strain existing capacity without urgent reforms and highlighted the absence of direct cargo flights to the US despite clearance facilities for the European Union.

From a development partner perspective, Nusrat Nahid Babi, senior transport specialist for South Asia at the World Bank, said the logistics reform momentum built since 2022 must be reaffirmed by the new government through clear priorities and high-level consensus.

She outlined a phased reform agenda covering policy simplification, multimodal connectivity, skills development, digitalisation, and investment, with immediate emphasis on operationalising the National Logistics Policy 2025 and establishing a logistics division under the Prime Minister's Office.

Md Moinul Huq, Citi country officer of Citibank N.A. Bangladesh, urged customs authorities to implement the Customs Act 2023 by clearly defining electronic documentation and payment procedures. He also criticised the continued reliance on letters of credit, calling for more flexible settlement mechanisms to improve trade competitiveness.

The discussion concluded with a strong call to move from policy intent to execution. Participants urged faster ratification of the National Logistics Policy 2025, structured private-sector engagement, investment in multimodal logistics hubs, and accelerated rollout of digital trade initiatives to enhance efficiency, resilience, and job creation.

European Union ambassadors on Wednesday (4 February) approved details of a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine, an initiative agreed by EU leaders in December to meet most of Kyiv's financial needs in 2026-2027 and keep up its fight against Russia's invasion.

The ambassadors reached the agreement at a closed-door meeting in Brussels, diplomats said.

The text of the agreement was not immediately available but the Council of the EU said in a statement that two thirds of the funds would be spent on military aid and one third on general budget support.

On military aid, the deal stipulates that Kyiv should use the loan primarily to buy weapons from Ukraine or the EU but could buy from other countries if certain conditions are met.

"Defence products should in principle only be procured from companies in the EU, Ukraine, or EEA-EFTA countries. Should Ukraine's military needs require the urgent delivery of a defence product which happens not to be available in the EU, Ukraine or an EEA-EFTA country, a set of targeted derogations would apply," the Council said.

The agreement also requires approval by the European Parliament, which diplomats said they hoped would come soon to allow the Commission to start borrowing on the markets and make a first payment to Ukraine in early April.

EU leaders agreed in December to fund the loan through EU borrowing rather than back a plan to use Russian assets frozen in the bloc.

RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited has reported a loss of Tk39.59 crore for 2025, even as its revenue grew by 10.56%, mainly due to higher manufacturing costs, prolonged disruption in gas supply until June, and rising finance expenses.

According to its price-sensitive information (PSI) filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the multinational ceramic manufacturer's sales rose to Tk737.33 crore in 2025 from the previous year, driven largely by increased production following uninterrupted LNG supply from July onward, which helped boost market sales.

Despite the revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin declined sharply to 13.19% from 17.19% a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics attributed the margin erosion to increased throughput costs, unabsorbed fixed costs incurred during the gas supply disruption up to June 2025, higher finance expenses arising from additional working capital borrowings, and increased provisions and write-offs of aged inventory.

With the latest loss, the company has posted back-to-back losses for the second consecutive year. In 2024, RAK Ceramics incurred a loss of Tk2.73 crore, although it also paid a 10% cash dividend that year.

Despite the widening losses, the board of directors has unanimously recommended a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders for 2025, amounting to Tk11.95 crore.

According to DSE data, sponsor-directors hold a majority 72.08% stake in the company and will not be entitled to the recommended dividend. The remaining 27.92% shares held by institutional investors, foreign investors, and general shareholders will receive the dividend payout.

The company also reported improvements in its operating performance, citing better trade receivable collections supported by a strengthened credit control framework, as well as successful renegotiation and extension of payment terms with vendors.

As a result, net operating cash flow per share rose significantly to Tk1 at the end of 2025, from Tk0.49 a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics has scheduled its annual general meeting (AGM) for 31 March through a digital platform. The record date for determining dividend entitlement has been set for 25 February.

Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday after the US shot down an Iranian drone and armed Iranian boats approached a US-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, rekindling fears of an escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $67.48 per barrel at 0730 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $63.49 per barrel.

Both benchmarks rose nearly 2 percent on Tuesday as the military incidents increased fears that a conflict could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or output from Iran.

“Uncertainty about how these talks will play out means the market will likely continue to price in some risk premium,” said ING commodity strategists on Wednesday.

The US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the US military said, in an incident first reported by Reuters.

Separately, in the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a US-flagged tanker north of Oman, maritime sources and a security consultancy said on Tuesday.

OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait of Hormuz, mainly to Asia. Iran was the third-biggest OPEC crude producer in 2025, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Meanwhile, Tehran is demanding that talks with the US this week be held in Oman not Turkey, and that the scope be narrowed to two-way negotiations on nuclear issues only, casting doubt on whether the meeting will proceed as planned.

“Heightened tensions in the Middle East provided support to the oil market,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.

Oil prices also found support from industry data showing a sharp drop in US crude stockpiles. Inventories in the top producing and consuming nation fell over 11 million barrels last week, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a rise in crude inventories.

On Tuesday, oil prices were also buoyed by a trade agreement between the US and India that raised hopes of stronger global energy demand, while continued Russian attacks on Ukraine added to concerns that Moscow’s oil would remain sanctioned for longer.

“India’s trade agreement with the US to halt purchases of Russian crude, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, is also providing support,” Yoshida said, projecting that WTI would likely continue to trade around $65 a barrel for now.

Stock markets mostly struggled on Tuesday while gold and silver prices rebounded in fresh volatile trading.

Oil prices rose while Wall Street indices retreated, shrugging off passage of legislation to end a four-day partial US government shutdown.

The price of gold climbed more than seven percent but later traded near $4,950 per ounce. Last week it reached a record-high close to $5,600 before tumbling.

Gold is "heading for its biggest daily gain since 2008, as prices rebounded sharply following the steepest two-day decline in decades," said analyst Axel Rudolph at trading platform IG.

Silver surged more than 15 percent to $86 on Tuesday, still well short of the record near $120 it hit last week.

"A sense of calm descended after the precious metal auctions, opening the door for investors to buy on the dip," noted Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

Gold and silver prices have been on a tear in recent months, benefitting from being seen as a safe haven investments during times of geopolitical tensions.

Wall Street's main equity markets wobbled, with the Dow striking a fresh all-time high before turning lower.

The Nasdaq Composite finished down 1.4 percent after spending almost the entire session in negative territory.

"The rotation away from tech began at the beginning of the year and it's kind of building on itself here," said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare.

"The tech sector had such strong outperformance last year and for several years. There are so much good news that has been priced into the stocks that there's really like zero room for error."

US President Donald Trump signed into law a congressional spending bill to fund government agencies while buying more time for lawmakers to negotiate over spending for the administration's controversial immigration crackdown.

Negotiations had broken down following the killing of two US citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis, the Minnesota city which has become the flashpoint for the Republican president's policies.

In Europe, early gains failed to hold. Frankfurt and London ended the day lower while Paris finished flat.

The euro and the pound rose against the dollar ahead of interest-rate decisions due Thursday from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

Investors were also keeping an eye on earnings from major companies this week, with particular attention on the tech sector and planned investment in artificial intelligence.

Shares in Palantir, a data and analytics firm that has extensive ties with the US government, jumped 6.8 percent, while robotics firm Teradyne surged 13.4 percent.

Shares in Disney dipped 0.2 percent after it named Josh D'Amaro, head of its theme parks division, to replace Bob Iger as chief executive when he steps down next month.

Asian equities trading was more positive, with sentiment boosted by a rally on Wall Street on Monday following forecast-beating manufacturing data.

That fed through to Asia, where Tokyo closed with a gain of 3.9 percent on Tuesday.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) purchased an additional US $171 million from 16 commercial banks on Wednesday as part of ongoing efforts to stabilise the country’s foreign exchange market.

The dollars were bought at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.30 per US dollar, a central bank official said.

This intervention follows a major purchase on Monday when the central bank acquired $218.5 million from 16 banks at the same rate. With these recent transactions, BB’s total dollar purchases in February have reached $389.5 million in just four days, reports UNB.

Aggressive Accumulation in FY2025-26

Throughout the current fiscal year, Bangladesh Bank has been actively buying dollars to curb rapid Taka appreciation and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.

The total purchases for FY2025-26 have reached $4.32 billion.

Recent Major Interventions:

Feb 4: $171 million from 16 banks

Feb 2: $218.5 million from 16 banks

Jan 29: $55 million from 5 banks

Jan 20: $45 million from 2 banks

Jan 12: $81 million from 10 banks

Jan 6: $223.5 million from 14 banks

All transactions were executed at a uniform cut-off rate of Tk 122.30.

Rationale Behind Market Intervention

Arif Hosain Khan, Executive Director and Spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, confirmed the latest purchase, noting that the central bank employs an auction-based system to manage liquidity.

Key drivers include:

Remittance Surge: Inward remittances through formal banking channels have reached record levels, with January 2026 alone seeing $3.17 billion, leaving banks with surplus dollar holdings.

Exchange Rate Management: By setting a cut-off rate, the central bank aims to establish a floor for the Taka, supporting exporters and remitters.

Reserve Strengthening: Dollar purchases are helping rebuild the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $28.51 billion (net) as of December 2025.

Banking insiders say that while the dollar crisis of previous years has eased, active participation by the central bank remains critical to prevent market volatility and ensure a predictable exchange rate for trade planning.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has downgraded Agricultural Marketing Company Limited (AMCL), widely known as PRAN, to the "Z" category, despite the company's claim that it disbursed its entire declared dividend within the stipulated timeframe, sparking confusion among investors.

According to a DSE notification, PRAN was moved from the "A" category to the "Z" category with effect from tomorrow (5 February), citing failure to comply with dividend disbursement rules set by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Under a BSEC directive, any listed company that fails to distribute at least 80% of its approved dividend within the prescribed period is subject to downgrading.

PRAN, however, strongly challenged the decision, arguing that the downgrade stemmed from a misunderstanding rather than any violation of regulatory requirements.

Touhiduzzaman, deputy general manager at Pran-RFL Group, told The Business Standard that the company had fully disbursed the dividend declared for the 2024-25 fiscal year in line with existing rules and long-standing market practices.

He explained that as an oldest company, around 23% of PRAN's shares are still paper-based, while the remaining 77% have been converted into electronic form.

"Dividends for electronic shareholders were paid through the banking channel, while dividends for paper-based shareholders were disbursed through bank cheques, a method the company has followed for years," he said.

According to Touhiduzzaman, also head of public relations at the group, the DSE, while assessing compliance, considered only dividends paid to electronic shareholders—77% of the total—and concluded that PRAN failed to meet the BSEC's 80% requirement, resulting in the downgrade.

He said the company later engaged with the relevant DSE officials and clarified that dividend payments to paper-based shareholders should also be factored into the calculation, as they form a legitimate component of the total disbursement.

"After reviewing the disbursement process, the DSE officials agreed that there had been a misunderstanding," he said.

Touhiduzzaman added that the issue has been resolved through discussions, and the DSE has assured the company that the categorisation will be corrected in the coming working days.

Bangladesh Krishi Bank (BKB) has launched a Shariah-styled interest-free fixed deposit scheme aimed at citizens who do not wish to earn interest on their savings.

In a circular issued on 29 January, the state-owned specialised bank instructed all branch managers to start offering account opening for the scheme from 1 February, allowing any Bangladeshi citizen aged 18 or above to open such an account.

Speaking to The Business Standard, BKB Deputy Managing Director Md Khaleduzzaman said the bank's board approved the scheme after considering demand from pious citizens across the country.

Under the scheme, depositors will not receive any interest. As a result, all government and bank charges, including excise duty, will not be borne by the account holders. Instead, the bank will pay those charges on their behalf.

Depositors maintaining a specified balance will also be eligible for a debit card.

According to the circular, Bangladesh is a country with a large number of religious citizens who are interested in saving their hard-earned money for future security but do not wish to accept bank interest.

The bank believes there is strong potential to mobilise interest-free deposits from such customers.

The circular said the initiative was taken to attract interest-free and low-interest deposits and to strengthen the bank's deposit base. Approval for the account was given at the bank's 887th board meeting held on 15 October last year.

Account conditions

However, the "Krishi Bank Interest-Free Fixed Deposit Scheme" has several conditions. A minimum deposit of Tk25,000 is required, while there is no upper limit. The tenure ranges from one month to three years or longer.

According to the bank, government excise duty will be deducted every December as per rules, but the deducted amount will be automatically reimbursed by the branch within two days.

As the account is interest-free, no tax at source will be deducted.

The bank will not charge any account maintenance fees. Charges for account closure, statements and SMS services will also be waived.

In addition to individuals, mosques, temples, pagodas, churches, graveyards, madrasas, religious institutions, clubs, associations and similar organisations will be able to open the account.

Krishi Bank way too short of CMSME lending target

But, the account will be cheque-free, meaning no cheque books will be issued. Customers will receive a deposit receipt at the time of opening the account.

The account cannot be transferred from one branch to another, and no loans will be provided against it.

How it compares with other banks

Such interest-free deposit accounts are usually offered by Islamic Shariah-based banks under the Al-Wadiah system. Conventional banks with Islamic windows also offer similar products.

However, no other state-owned commercial or specialised bank currently offers a dedicated interest-free fixed deposit account. Customers at Sonali, Janata, Rupali and Agrani banks can open savings accounts by declaring in writing that they will not accept interest.

Current accounts at these banks do not offer interest either, and the same applies to most private banks. But, customers usually have to pay various service charges and maintenance fees, depending on the bank.

Currently, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank offers an interest-free savings account.

Among private banks, City Bank, AB Bank, Trust Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Eastern Bank, United Commercial Bank and Dutch-Bangla Bank provide interest-free services through their Islamic windows or wings.

Representatives of multinational companies have voiced concern over Bangladesh's inconsistent tax policy and high rates, saying unpredictability is creating challenges for investment.

"Over the last three years, our tax rate has increased… It's hard to predict what the tax rate will be next year," said Ahmet Zahit Erdem, head of finance at Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverage Limited, at a seminar today (3 February).

"Our tax rate is very high," he added.

The seminar titled "Review of Revenue Performance in Bangladesh: With Special Focus on Supplementary Duty and Excise", was organised by the Policy Research Institute (PRI).

Entrepreneurs from the tobacco sector echoed these concerns, noting that combined taxes on tobacco products currently stand at around 83%, an extremely high level, they said.

They recommended replacing the existing ad-valorem tax system with a specific tax system, citing the importance of predictability for industry stability and warning that excessive taxation may encourage illegal trade.

In recent budgets, beverage sector entrepreneurs have faced successive tax increases. The minimum tax on beverage products rose from 0.5% to 3% in FY23, followed by increases in supplementary duty and customs duty on imported raw materials in subsequent budgets. These changes have left investors apprehensive about potential new tax hikes.

Participating in the seminar, National Board of Revenue (NBR) Member Syed Mushfequr Rahman highlighted discrepancies between companies' financial statements and their tax and VAT payments.

"Many companies pay tax based on financial statements, but their VAT payments are much lower than expected," he said, noting that this points to governance challenges.

The NBR official also defended the government's reliance on supplementary duty, which accounts for 30% of VAT revenue and 60% of import revenue.

"We can't eliminate it overnight," he said.

Chairing the seminar, Dr Zaidi Sattar, chairman of PRI, called for reducing supplementary duty rates, particularly at the import stage, noting that duties on 1,700 tariff lines are significantly higher at import than at the local level – contradicting WTO principles.

"Once Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, maintaining such high import-stage duties will no longer be feasible," he added.

The keynote paper was presented by PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker.

Other speakers included PRI Executive Director Khurshid Alam, NBR First Secretary Md Moshiur Rahman, and Abu Zahid Parag, senior manager of Fiscal Affairs at British American Tobacco Bangladesh. Hafiz Choudhury, principal of The M Group Inc., spoke virtually.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has started publishing HS code-wise import data on its website to enhance transparency and improve public access to trade-related information.

The initiative follows long-standing demands from young entrepreneurs, students, investors, trade researchers, businesspeople and journalists for easier access to reliable import data, according to a press release.

By making the data publicly available, the revenue authority aims to support data-driven analysis, informed decision-making and research across the trade and investment ecosystem.

The NBR said HS code-based import information covering both commercial imports and imports under bonded warehouse facilities has been uploaded to the customs section of the publication portal on its official website.

The latest dataset, released last week, contains import information for December 2025.

The published data provide detailed product-wise information in line with HS code classifications, including quantity, weight and declared value, allowing users to analyse import patterns at a granular level and track movements over time.

Officials said the move will make import-related information more accessible, open and transparent, while significantly expanding opportunities for the use of credible data by entrepreneurs, academics, analysts, journalists and policymakers.

The availability of HS code-wise data is also expected to help stakeholders gain clearer insights into international market prices and price fluctuations, as well as analyse import trends, seasonal variations and product movement dynamics.

Besides, the data will facilitate assessments of the country's trade structure, import dependency and the flow of industrial raw materials under bonded facilities, and support evaluations of the effectiveness of incentives for export-oriented industries.

Bangladesh’s external debt has nearly doubled in just over three years, driven by a surge in emergency budget financing in the post-Covid period and a sharp devaluation of the local currency that inflated the value of dollar-denominated obligations.

The country’s total external debt jumped 92 percent to Tk 9.51 lakh crore by the end of September 2025, compared with June 2022 levels, according to a debt bulletin published Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance.

The sharp increase reflects Bangladesh’s growing reliance on quick-disbursing budget support loans rather than traditional project financing, amid weak revenue collection and widening fiscal deficits.

Between fiscal years 2021-2022 (FY22) and 2024-2025 (FY25), Bangladesh received $9.82 billion in budget support, with $3.44 billion coming last fiscal year alone.

Budget support loans, which are disbursed immediately upon approval and come with policy conditions, rose 69 percent year-on-year in FY25, even as project loans fell more than 29 percent.

The shift reflects the government’s need for funds that can be deployed immediately to cover budget operations amid weak revenue collection. Unlike project loans, which are disbursed gradually and tied to specific infrastructure works, budget support can be used directly for deficit financing.

The interim government has continued prioritising budget support over project loans, maintaining the pattern established by the previous administration.

Currency devaluation has compounded the debt burden. The local currency has weakened to around Tk 122 per dollar from Tk 85 several years ago, thanks to heightened imports in the post-Covid period and commodity price surge in global markets, among other factors.

The government’s total debt rose 1 percent to Tk 21.49 lakh crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio up roughly two percentage points to 38.61 percent.

Of the total debt stock, Tk 11.97 lakh crore is domestic borrowing, while the remainder consists of external obligations.

The growing debt load is straining government finances. Interest payments surged 27 percent year-on-year to Tk 31,629 crore during the July-September period in FY26.

Of this, domestic interest payments rose 19 percent, while interest on external borrowings rose 80 percent. Among domestic elements, payment for treasury securities rose by 21 percent and national savings certificates by 16 percent.

Gold prices bounced back to hover near $5,100 on Wednesday, underpinned by safe-haven demand as renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions added to bullion’s appeal a day after it posted its best day in more than 17 years.

Spot gold was up 2.9 percent at $5,082.94 per ounce, as of 0813 GMT, after surging nearly 6 percent on Tuesday, its biggest daily gain since November 2008. Bullion scaled a record high of $5,594.82 last Thursday.

US gold futures for April delivery climbed 3.4 percent to $5,103.50 per ounce.

The US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the US military said.

Gold is bouncing back from a low of $4,403.24 touched on Monday after its biggest two-day sell-off in decades.

“After such a sharp rally, a correction was expected, it was not surprising and with gold coming back up, the fundamentals have not changed much,” ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said, adding that the geopolitical and economic backdrop remained mostly unchanged.

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that it saw significant upside risk to its $5,400 year-end forecast for gold on central banks maintaining their recent pace of accumulation alongside private investors stepping up gold ETF purchases.

“Going ahead ... we are expecting the same $5,600 levels (for gold) by the end of the first half or April-end while prices will continue to rise thereafter and our year-end target is $6,000/oz,” said Jigar Trivedi, a senior research analyst at IndusInd Securities.

Spot silver rose 6.1 percent to $90.34 an ounce. It touched a record high of $121.64 on Thursday but fell to a month-low at $71.33 on Monday having registered a record single-session price wipe-out of 27 percent on Friday.

Markets now await ADP private payroll data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path even as a partial US government shutdown has delayed the closely watched employment report for January.

Bangladesh is destined to face break-neck competition both in US and EU markets with India emerging as a major competitor with double advantages of Washington-proposed tariff cutback and trade deal with the 27-nation European bloc.

Industry insiders and experts sound the alarm over the headwinds about to blow from the two destinations Bangladesh heavily bank on for its readymade garment export -- the nation's main export earner -- and urge government action.

The recent announcement of lowering tariffs on Indian-made goods may be subject to as low as 18-percent tariffs, knocked down from the earlier-imposed 50 per cent. The brusque move from Washington came a week after the announcement of the trade deal between India and European Union.

Bangladesh should immediately act to retain duty -free market access to the European Union and enhance its competitiveness by removing supply-side constraints, industry leaders urge.

A slew of must-dos they list to overcome possible impact of the trade deal between the EU and India: coordinated reforms across trade policy, energy pricing and reliability, logistics and ports, access to finance, skills development and regulatory capacity building.

They also stress both product diversification, mostly by way of producing manmade fibre- based garments, and market diversification through exploring potential non-traditional markets.

Local garment exporters will face cutthroat competition and increased price pressure on the EU market after the free-trade agreement (FTA) announced recently between the EU and India comes into effect, possibly in 2027, as it would grant the neighbouring country's garment makers access to the bloc sans duty on apparel exports, they note.

On the other hand, Bangladesh's current duty-free market access there under EBA (everything but arms) scheme is scheduled to end in 2029 as the county is set to graduate from LDC status this coming November 2026 with a three-year transition period.

Though Bangladesh can apply for GSP- plus facility, its garment products would not get duty-free market access there due to safeguard clauses and are likely to face about 12-percent duty, they said, adding that by this time, another competitor - Vietnam -- would also get duty-free market access.

Talking to The Financial Express, Md Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said India would be in an advantageous position with reduced rate of 18-percent tariffs compared to 20 per cent for Bangladesh.

On the other hand, the trade deal between the EU and India will be 'dangerous' for them, he said, apprehending a possible threat of losing market share there.

"The impact of the deal would be severe for us. Bangladesh is currently facing tough competition on the EU market as India and China are enhancing their focus there to offset US high-tariff impacts," says Faruque Hassan, managing director of Giant Group.

Bangladesh will become less competitive on the EU market once India secures duty-free access there, he warns.

The first and foremost tasks must be to sustain the duty-free market access there, the apparel maker-exporter told the FE, adding that the government also should initiate move to sign FTA to have an even footing on the largest market as a bloc.

Meantime, Chief Adviser of the interim government Prof Muhammad Yunus Sunday directed opening free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with the EU forthwith to safeguard Bangladesh's trade preferences on its largest export market.

MA Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), says the US tariff reduction for India might not immediately affect the local garment shipment over there as Indian competitive advantage would not change because it is in disadvantage due to existing higher tariffs.

"But Bangladesh will face tremendous pressure in the medium term of three to five years as the EU-India trade deal would bring extreme challenges," he told the FE, explaining India with its backward linkages, including cotton to yarn and fabrics, will be a major competitor for Bangladesh which has to depend on imported raw materials.

Besides, there are no supply-side constraints for other major garment-producing countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and Pakistan as Bangladesh face, he adds.

The country has to immediately take measures to remove the supply-side constraints like gas and energy shortages, provide supports to the exporters to be ESG-compliant, develop skilled workforce, and reduce electricity and utility costs, ensure special bank interest rate and simultaneously attract foreign direct investment in RMG sector to boost MMF production.

"To ensure global work orders, FDI is a must for RMG and also for overall export diversification," he notes.

Local exporters will also face price pressure as India would be more competitive, says MA Rahim, vice chairman of DBL Group.

The entrepreneur, however, thinks the EU-India deal would not impact Bangladesh's export immediately, but it would affect gradually.

"India will be a strong future competitor for Bangladesh as the neighbouring country has its own raw materials, including cotton, yarn and fabrics, low labour cost while government facilitates the sector with a number of packages to increase competitiveness," Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, points out to underscore the urgency of counterbalancing actions.

Besides, India will jump into the market with better market access also to offset the high tariffs imposed by US administration, he notes.

Echoing Hassan's anxiety, Hoque, who ships up to 80 per cent of his total exports to the EU, says they immediately need government support to reduce cost of production and cost of fund, ensure uninterrupted gas supply and other issues that have been eating up competitiveness.

Hoque voices a consequential note: If Bangladesh fails to secure the duty-free market access under GSP-plus or a bilateral free-trade deal after LDC graduation, it will be out of the market.

The industry also needs to diversify its markets and products and produce manmade-fibre garments, exporters suggest.

They have also demanded incentives for attracting both local and foreign investment into man-made fibre or MMF wears to sustain export growth.

In the last fiscal year of 2024-25, the European Union accounted for more than 50 per cent, coming to US$19.71 billion, of Bangladesh's total garment exports worth over 48 billion US dollars.

Chattogram Port has been shut since Tuesday after workers, who observed an eight-hour work abstention for three days from Saturday morning, launched an open-ended strike protesting the proposed lease of the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) to Dubai-based DP World.

The closure has halted cargo handling at the country's largest seaport, intensifying supply chain disruptions and pressure on exporters and importers.

As of Wednesday (4 February), more than 140 vessels were waiting at the outer anchorage. Gantry cranes, tugboats, and pilotage services remained idle despite vacant berths. Port officials confirmed that not a single container has been handled since the strike began at the facility, which typically processes 8,000-9,000 TEUs daily.

The situation turned critical after a five-hour meeting between labour leaders and business representatives failed to produce a breakthrough yesterday. Economists warn that a prolonged standoff could trigger national shortages and push up consumer prices ahead of Ramadan.

We don't know what exactly is happening at Chattogram Port. Management should take locals and stakeholders into confidence.
Mohammad Abdur Razzaque | Chairman, RAPID

The disruption is rippling through Bangladesh's supply chain ahead of Ramadan, with perishable imports such as fruits, dates and edible oil stranded at the port and exporters warning of missed shipment deadlines, rising costs and potential order cancellations.

Economists and business leaders have told TBS that a prolonged standoff over the NCT lease could trigger shortages, push up consumer prices and inflict lasting damage on trade and buyer confidence.

Meanwhile, the Public Private Partnership Authority and the Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) have allegedly continued negotiations with DP World to finalise the agreement ahead of the election, even after the Supreme Court accepted an appeal against the High Court verdict that had cleared the legal barrier to the deal.

Workers said the government's insistence on pushing forward with the agreement, despite the pending appeal, has reinforced their resolve to continue the strike.

If the strike continues further, we'll be in a serious challenge, such as missing the lead time and order as well.
MA Jabbar | Managing director, DBL Group

"We don't know what exactly is happening at Chattogram Port. Management should take locals and stakeholders into confidence," said Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, economist and chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID). "It can't be done in isolation."

Meanwhile, Shipping Adviser Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain yesterday warned of tough action if any lighter ship fails to unload goods within three days of reaching the wharf.

In an inter-ministerial meeting in the capital to resolve various crises involving lighter ships engaged in transporting goods from mother vessels, he also directed the commerce ministry to publish the list in the media and cancel the licences of the responsible individuals or organisations.

Fresh fruit, dates stuck ahead of Ramadan

The impact is already being felt in the perishable goods segment. The Fresh Fruit Importers Association said more than 200 TEUs of fresh fruit containers and around 300 TEUs loaded with dates have remained stuck at the port.

Importers are now paying Tk10,000 to Tk15,000 in demurrage per container, a cost they say will inevitably be passed on to consumers.

Touhidul Alam, general secretary of the association, said that fruit imports are aligned closely with market demand. "Over the last five days of strikes, only a handful of containers have been released. If the situation continues, shortages will emerge in the market very soon," he said.

"Prices of fruits and dates will also rise," he added.

Vehicles stranded, depots clogged

Cargo delivery has remained suspended for more than 36 hours, leaving thousands of heavy vehicles stranded inside and outside the port area. To prevent further congestion, authorities have stopped allowing new vehicles to enter.

Container transportation from inland container depots has also been halted, causing a growing backlog of export cargo at depots.

Ruhul Amin Sikder, secretary general of the Bangladesh Inland Container Depots Association, said all container movement has stopped. "No trucks are leaving the port and no new containers are coming in," he said.

He noted that export cargo typically accounts for 2,500-2,800 containers a day, while imported cargo delivered to depots is gradually converted into empty containers. "So far, there is some balance in the system, and the pressure has not peaked yet," he said.

However, he warned that the situation could deteriorate rapidly if the stoppage continues. "Export volumes are rising, which means loaded export containers will increase. We can store far fewer loaded containers than empty ones," Sikder said.

He added that inland container depots have a total handling capacity of about 15,000 TEUs, with around 11,000 already in use. "If operations remain suspended for long, the system will hit its capacity limit and a serious crisis will emerge," he said.

Business leaders seek alternative to strike

The current shutdown follows three consecutive days of eight-hour work stoppages that began on Saturday. Workers launched a full 24-hour strike on Tuesday at 8am, which has since turned into an open-ended programme.

As disruptions deepened, leaders of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association and other business organisations met labour leaders at a hotel in Agrabad yesterday afternoon.

Business leaders expressed solidarity with the workers' movement, calling it logical in the context of protecting the NCT. At the same time, they urged labour leaders to consider alternative forms of protest and withdraw the strike to avoid further economic damage.

Labour leaders responded that they were fighting to protect the port and warned that retreating now would embolden the CPA to take harsher action, risking the loss of a national asset. They called on business leaders to stand with the movement in what they described as the greater national interest.

Exporters, importers under mounting pressure

With a growing number of consumer goods containers stuck at the port, traders have warned of shortages and price hikes in the domestic market ahead of Ramadan.

Economists and business leaders cautioned that the standoff could spiral into an unprecedented crisis, with serious consequences for the national economy.

Abu Tayub, first vice-president of BGMEA, said hundreds of containers meant for export shipments are now stuck at inland container depots. He warned that missing shipment deadlines would force exporters to resort to air freight, which is far more expensive and would result in heavy financial losses.

"If the situation continues for a few more days, the RMG sector will be at serious risk of losing export orders and buyer confidence, which could ultimately jeopardise the entire industry," he said.

MA Jabbar, managing director of DBL Group, one of the top five garment exporters in Bangladesh, said if the strike continues further, we'll be in a serious challenge, such as missing the lead time and order as well.

Allegations, resistance and revenue debate

Leaders of the Chattogram Port Protection Movement Unity Council, which is coordinating the protests, claimed workers are participating spontaneously. They alleged that senior port officials have been confined at the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority office in Dhaka and pressured to sign the DP World contract.

They warned that the indefinite strike will continue unless the government withdraws what they termed an anti-national decision to lease out the terminal.

Former BGMEA vice-president MA Salam described the workers' movement as justified and urged dialogue to reach a solution that safeguards both national and consumer interests.

Humayun Kabir, coordinator of Bandar Rokkha Sangram Oikya Parishad, raised allegations of corruption involving senior officials and questioned the financial logic of handing over profitable terminals to foreign operators. He claimed similarly sized terminals run by the port generate significantly higher revenue than those leased out.

According to sources at the Public Private Partnership Authority, the NCT generates about $100 in gross revenue per TEU under CPA operation. After deducting $12.31 in variable operating costs and $41.32 in fixed administrative costs per TEU, net revenue stands at $46.37.

Under the proposed DP World model, the CPA is estimated to receive a revenue share of $42.50 per TEU. After accounting for unavoidable fixed administrative costs of $41.32 borne by the CPA, the authority would be left with a marginal surplus of just $1.18 per TEU.

When contacted for comment, CPA Director (Administration) and spokesperson Omar Faruk did not respond to calls.

Court bars contract signing amid legal battle

The controversy surrounding the NCT lease has also taken a legal turn. The Supreme Court on Tuesday accepted an appeal against a High Court ruling that had paved the way for the DP World deal, and referred the matter to a full bench. As part of that order, the court clarified that the government cannot sign the contract until the appeal is disposed of, creating a fresh legal hurdle for the proposed lease.

According to legal records, the dispute arises from challenges to the High Court's split verdict and questions over the legality of the process under the Public-Private Partnership Act and government-to-government policy. With the matter now sub judice, signing the contract remains legally barred until the appeal is resolved.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund (SWF), the world's largest investment fund, has reduced its exposure to Bangladesh's capital market by 17% in 2025, continuing a gradual pullback that has been underway for several years amid economic and market uncertainties.

According to disclosures by Norges Bank Investment Management, the fund has also exited several prominent listed companies, including Beximco Pharmaceuticals, Walton, MJL Bangladesh, Renata, Olympic Industries and Singer Bangladesh.

Data shows the fund's total investment in Bangladesh fell to $117.12 million in 2025, down from $141.93 million in 2024. This marks a steady decline from a peak of $248.35 million in 2020. Over the past six years, the fund's exposure has tapered off consistently, reflecting caution toward the local equity market despite Bangladesh's long-term growth potential.

Although overall holdings have declined, Norway's SWF continues to retain stakes in a select group of major companies. Its largest investment remains in BRAC Bank, with a 4.42% stake valued at $45.45 million.

Other key holdings include Square Pharmaceuticals (1.93%, $27.81 million), Grameenphone (0.71%, $20.35 million), City Bank (3.55%, $10.73 million), Prime Bank (3%, $8.16 million) and Marico Bangladesh (0.67%, $4.59 million). Ownership levels in most of these companies, however, declined compared to 2024, indicating partial sell-offs rather than new investments.

Market analysts say the reduction in exposure is driven less by company-specific weaknesses and more by macroeconomic and structural challenges.

A senior analyst at Brummer & Partners Bangladesh, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the slowdown in investments since 2020 stems from multiple factors, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the prolonged floor price mechanism in the stock market, taxation concerns, foreign exchange volatility, and heightened economic and political uncertainty.

"The fund usually invests in equities for the long term, but depending on business outlook and risk assessment, it withdraws or reduces exposure from time to time," the analyst said, adding that investments could rise again if macroeconomic indicators show sustained improvement.

The analyst noted that Norway's SWF continues to hold shares in fundamentally strong and well-governed companies such as BRAC Bank, City Bank, Grameenphone and Square Pharmaceuticals, reflecting its long-term investment philosophy and preference for market leaders with relatively stable earnings prospects.

Salim Afzal Shawon, head of research at BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage, said 2025 saw a broader trend of foreign portfolio investors trimming holdings in Bangladesh. "Many foreign investors chose to liquidate or partially exit positions as foreign exchange conditions eased, allowing smoother repatriation of funds," he said.

Shawon added that growing caution ahead of the upcoming national election prompted investors to limit exposure until there is greater clarity on political stability and policy direction. "If the political transition brings confidence and predictability, foreign investors are likely to return. Bangladesh still offers attractive long-term opportunities given its large domestic market and growth-oriented industries," he said.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund began investing in Bangladesh in 2015 and has since become the country's largest foreign portfolio investor, with cumulative investments estimated at around Tk1,800 crore. Globally, the fund manages assets worth approximately $2.11 trillion across 68 countries.

A high-stakes race to hand over Bangladesh's most profitable maritime asset to a foreign operator has ignited a firestorm of legal challenges, labour strikes, and allegations of massive financial undervaluation.

Under the watch of an interim administration, the Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) is fast-tracking a 15-year concession for the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) to UAE-based DP World. While officials defend the move as a necessary leap towards global efficiency, critics argue the deal is being "rammed through" just days before national elections and in defiance of a sub judice court process.

At the centre of the controversy is the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT), a strategic facility that handles around 90% of Bangladesh's containerised cargo. The Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) has moved to lease out the terminal and its adjacent Overflow Container Yard to UAE-based global operator DP World for 15 years under a government-to-government arrangement.

The move has raised concerns among economists and labour leaders over whether the interim government has the mandate to finalise a long-term international concession involving a strategic national asset.

Critics have also questioned the valuation and single-bidder nature of the process, while officials argue the deal is necessary to expand capacity and improve efficiency at the country's main maritime gateway.

The government has not publicly responded to questions about the interim administration's legal authority to sign long-term concessions.

Timeline set before court verdict

Documents reviewed by The Business Standard reveal that the CPA issued a 63-page RFP on 8 January, seeking proposals for the operation and maintenance of the NCT and its Overflow Container Yard. Crucially, this occurred three weeks before the Supreme Court's 29 January ruling, which upheld the legality of the leasing process.

The deadline for clarification was 11 January, with pre-bid meetings held on 14 and 15 January. An addendum followed on 20 January, and the bid submission deadline has been fixed for 19 February 2026.

A senior official of the Public Private Partnership Authority, speaking on condition of anonymity, said most formalities had already been completed.

"Now, a few final-stage formalities are under process. Once they are completed, the concession agreement can be signed anytime this week before the election," the official said.

Legal experts have questioned the propriety of proceeding while the matter was sub judice.

Barrister Anwar Hossain, representing the petitioners, told TBS, "When a matter is sub judice, you cannot proceed with it. If the CPA submitted the RFP and held meetings during the court hearing, they defied the court."

He added that an application seeking a status quo on the verdict has already been filed. "Even if the court sends the appeal to a full bench without issuing a status quo, the authority is not legally allowed to proceed with the agreement," he said.

Labour strike disrupt port operations

The proposed handover has triggered strong resistance from port workers. A two-day eight-hour work abstention from Saturday to Sunday, followed by another protest today (2 February), paralysed cargo handling and vessel movement at Chattogram Port.

Workers today announced a further 24-hour strike from 8am tomorrow, which they say coincides with an initial target date for signing the concession agreement.

Chattogram Port, which typically handles 8,000-9,000 TEUs of containers a day, has seen a significant drop in its activity.

Labour leaders argue that NCT is a highly profitable facility and accuse authorities of undervaluing it. According to them, the current tariff generates around $161 per TEU at NCT. Even if operating costs are estimated at $56 per TEU, the port earns roughly $105 per container.

"The CPA and the Rate Negotiation Committee want to hand over NCT to DP World at $105 per TEU. A top government official is pressuring Chattogram Port to hand it over at just $42 per TEU," alleged Humayun Kabir, coordinator of the Bandar Rokkha Sangram Oikya Parishad.

CPA documents reviewed by TBS do not publicly disclose the basis for the proposed per-TEU rate.

Another protesting leader, Ibrahim Khokan, questioned the urgency of the decision. "The country will have an elected government in just 10 days. Why doesn't the interim government leave such a strategic decision to the elected government?" he said, alleging personal interests behind the rush to finalise the deal.

Lease process

Operational since 2007, NCT is one of the most critical facilities at Chattogram Port, Bangladesh's principal maritime gateway. The brownfield riverine terminal has an 820-metre quay wall, four container berths and extensive back-up facilities. The adjacent Overflow Container Yard, developed in 2015, provides additional container storage.

According to the RFP, the government aims to expand port capacity and improve efficiency to support growing manufacturing and export sectors. DP World was selected as the potential partner, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) acting as transaction adviser.

The concession includes a transition period of up to six months, followed by a 15-year operation and maintenance phase. At the end of the term, the facilities will revert to the CPA at no cost, except for any additional equipment installed by the operator. A feasibility study estimates the project cost at $205 million.

The RFP restricts bidding to DP World or a consortium led by it, with the lead member holding at least 51% equity. Bidders must submit legal, technical and financial proposals in English, along with a $1.5 million bid security valid for 180 days.

Technical bids will be evaluated first, followed by financial bids. The successful bidder will have to pay a $2 million project development fee to the IFC and a $4,00,000 success fee to the PPP Authority. A Bangladeshi special-purpose vehicle must be formed, with shareholding locked in for 10 years.

To qualify, bidders must show experience in managing at least one container terminal handling a minimum of 7,50,000 TEUs annually in each of the last three financial years and a net worth of at least $100 million per year over the same period.

The process received in-principle approval from the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in March 2023. A writ petition filed by the Bangladesh Young Economists Forum later challenged the lack of open competition and transparency.

After a split High Court verdict in late 2025, the Supreme Court's 29 January ruling removed the final legal hurdle. However, an application seeking a status quo on the verdict was subsequently filed.

Omar Faruk, director (administration) of the CPA, told journalists at a briefing on Sunday that leasing out NCT to DP World is a government decision. "The CPA is just implementing the government's decision," he said.

Professor Anu Muhammad, a noted economist, questioned the legal authority of the interim government to proceed with a long-term international agreement. He argued that the interim administration's mandate was limited to holding elections and did not extend to signing strategic international contracts.

"They must withdraw from activities related to international agreements, including Chattogram Port. Advisers and special assistants should stop engaging in these matters," he said, expressing solidarity with protesting port workers.

US President Donald Trump today (3 February) announced that India and the United States have agreed to a bilateral trade deal, capping months of hard negotiations.

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that under the deal, which takes effect immediately, the US would reduce reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% and India would cut its tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US to zero.

"Out of friendship and respect for [Indian] Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%.

"They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to zero," Trump wrote.

Trump said the Indian premier also committed to "buy American" at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billion in energy, technology, agricultural, coal and many other products.

Trump's announcement of the deal came after a phone call with Modi earlier today.

Trump further said, "Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that get things done, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Ahead of the announcement, Trump spoke to Modi, American Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said in a post on X.

The deal comes after several months of negotiations since March 2025. In the interregnum, the Trump administration levied a steep 50% tariff on Indian exports to the US, including 25% for India's purchase of Russian crude oil, which the US claimed was indirectly financing Russia's war against Ukraine.

Trump wrote on Truth Social, "It was an honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and a powerful and respected leader of his country.

"We spoke about many things, including trade and ending the war with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help end the war in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!"

India has maintained throughout the negotiations with the US that its agriculture and dairy sectors would continue to be protected.

The India-US trade deal comes just days after India and the EU announced a Free Trade Agreement that New Delhi and Brussels called the "mother of all" trade deals.

While the European Union is India's largest trading partner as an economic bloc, the US remains India's single largest trading partner.

Modi, for his part, wrote on his X, "Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that made-in-India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement."

However, there is no word from Modi on India bringing down India's tariff against US imports to zero.

Modi said, "When two large economies and the world's largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation."

He said Trump's leadership "is vital for global peace, stability and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace".

"I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented heights," the Indian PM added.

Bangladesh's export earnings remained largely stagnant in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, as a sustained slowdown in garment shipments continued to outweigh incremental gains in non-readymade garment sectors, reflecting the economy's dependence on a single export pillar.

According to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), exports during July-January FY26 stood at $28.41 billion, registering a 1.93% year-on-year decline, even as shipments rebounded 11.22% month-on-month in January.

Readymade garments (RMG), which account for about 81% of Bangladesh's export basket, recorded a 2.43% year-on-year fall during the period, exerting downward pressure on overall export performance despite moderate growth in several non-RMG segments, including engineering products, leather goods, jute items, frozen fish and home textiles.

Export earnings from the RMG sector amounted to $22.98 billion in the July-January period, down from a year earlier. Within the segment, knitwear exports declined by 3.13%, while woven garment shipments fell 1.60%, reflecting weak demand and continued price pressures in major markets.

In contrast, non-RMG exports posted relatively stronger growth, though from a much smaller base.

EPB data show that engineering product exports rose by nearly 26%, driven by sharp increases in bicycle exports (31%) and electrical products (26.8%).

Exports of leather and leather goods increased 5.7%, while home textile shipments grew 3.3% and jute and jute goods exports edged up by just over 2% during the period.

Fazle Ehsan Shamim, vice president of the BKMEA, told The Business Standard that exports have slowed due to both global and domestic factors.

"The US's reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi products reduced orders, while Indian and Chinese exporters gained greater access to the EU market, affecting Bangladesh's garment shipments," he said.

Shamim also cited domestic political uncertainty ahead of elections, which led major buyers to cut orders by 20-30% to avoid delivery risks.

MA Rahim Firoz, vice chairman of DBL Group, said historical experience shows that foreign buyers often reduce orders before and after elections – a trend observed for the past 30 years. He predicted this pattern would continue over the next two months, with significant growth only expected from April.

Exports decline for 6th consecutive month

Bangladesh's exports fell in January 2026, continuing a six-month streak of year-on-year declines. Export earnings reached $4.41 billion, down 0.50% from $4.43 billion in January 2025, EPB data shows.

Industry sources noted that such consecutive point-to-point declines have not been seen since the global Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, when shipments were disrupted worldwide.

Data further show that exports in the first month of FY26, July 2025, stood at $4.77 billion. The following months recorded $3.91 billion in August, $3.62 billion in September, $3.82 billion in October, $3.89 billion in November, and $3.96 billion in December.

This indicates a significant drop in exports from the levels seen at the start of the fiscal year. Last July, the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi products, putting pressure on the country's largest export market, which in turn affected other markets. Conditions gradually improved in subsequent months.

For comparison, in FY25, exports were $3.82 billion in July, $4.03 billion in August, $3.80 billion in September, $4.13 billion in October, $4.12 billion in November, and $4.62 billion in December.

RMG exports show slight decline

The country's main export product, ready-made garments, fell 1.35% year-on-year in January. RMG shipments amounted to $3.61 billion, down from $3.66 billion in January 2025. However, RMG exports rose 11.77% compared with December 2025.

Exports to Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Denmark, Australia, Sweden, Belgium, and Turkey declined in January compared with December. By contrast, shipments increased to the US, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, India, Canada, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Exports to India grew the most, rising 19.23% month-on-month to $166 million in January, up from $127 million in December. Despite this, cumulative exports to India in the first seven months (July-January) fell 4.98% to $1.05 billion, down from $1.10 billion in the same period of FY25.

To stabilise the foreign exchange market and support remittance and export inflows, the Bangladesh Bank has purchased over $4 billion from commercial banks through auctions in the current fiscal year.

Bangladesh Bank Executive Director and spokesperson Arif Hossain Khan told journalists on Monday that the central bank has bought $4.15 billion so far this fiscal year.

Today alone, it purchased $218 million from 16 commercial banks at a rate of Tk122.30 per dollar, bringing the total purchases for February to $218 million.

Dollar supply has increased due to rising remittance inflows through banking channels, prompting commercial banks to sell dollars to the central bank.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard that banks are keen to sell dollars, while the central bank is increasing its reserves through these purchases.

In January 2026, the country received $3.17 billion in remittances – the third-highest monthly inflow on record. This marks a 45.41% increase compared to $2.18 billion received in January 2025.

Previously, the highest remittance inflow was recorded in March 2025 at $3.29 billion, followed by $3.22 billion in December 2025.

A senior official said Bangladesh Bank is buying dollars mainly to sustain export and remittance flows and to prevent a fall in the exchange rate.

Bangladesh Bank began purchasing dollars through auctions for the first time in July 2025. These purchases have injected a significant amount of liquidity into the banking system.

JP Morgan said late on Sunday it expects demand from central banks and investors to drive gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by year-end.

Gold extended its fall on Monday to $4,677.17 per ounce, as of 0450 GMT, after falling more than 5 percent earlier in the session to hit its lowest in more than two weeks. Bullion had scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on Thursday.

“We remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” the brokerage said in a note.

JP Morgan now forecasts central-bank gold purchases at 800 tons in 2026, citing an ongoing, unexhausted trend of reserve diversification.

Meanwhile, in silver, with prices at $80 an ounce since late December, the drivers of the continued rally have become harder to pinpoint and quantify, making it more cautious, JPMorgan said.

Spot silver fell over 6 percent to $78.90 an ounce on Monday. It hit a record high of $121.64 on Thursday before touching a near one-month low on Friday.

Moreover in the case of silver, without central banks as structural dip buyers as in gold, there remains the risk for a further move back higher in the gold-to-silver ratio in the coming weeks, the brokerage added.

“We still do see a higher floor for silver on average (around $75-$80/oz) for now vs our previous expectations as, even after overshooting in its catch-up to gold, silver is unlikely to fully relinquish its gains,” JP Morgan said.