Oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as a wave of supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday.

The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI, and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom at $54/50 in the last quarter as OECD inventories build up.

"Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth, barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts," Goldman Sachs said.

Brent crude futures were trading around $63 a barrel, as of 0412 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude holds ground at $59. Last year, both the benchmarks posted their worst annual performance since 2020, with an almost 20 percent decline.

US policymakers' focus on strong energy supply and relatively low oil prices will keep sustained oil price upside in check ahead of the midterms, analysts at the bank noted.

Prices are expected to gradually start recovering in 2027, with the market returning to a deficit as non-OPEC supply slows down and solid demand growth continues, Goldman analysts said in a note.
The investment bank expects Brent/WTI to average at $58/54 in 2027, although $5 lower than its prior estimate, citing upgrades to 2027 supply in the US, Venezuela and Russia by 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5mb/d, respectively.

Goldman said it expects a substantial price recovery later this decade as demand grows through 2040 after years of low long-cycle investment, with 2030–2035 Brent/WTI prices averaging $75/$71, $5 below its previous estimate.

Risks to the price forecasts are skewed modestly to the downside given a further increase in non-OPEC supply, Goldman said, adding that it expects no OPEC production cuts, despite geopolitical risks and low speculative positioning.

"We still recommend investors short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent time-spread to express the 2026 surplus view, and oil producers hedge 2026 price downside."

The stock market closed mixed on Monday as the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) edged up marginally, while the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) ended lower amid broad-based price declines.

Despite remaining under pressure for most of the session, the DSE’s key index DSEX managed to close 2 points higher, UNB reports.

Among the other indices, the Shariah-based DSES remained unchanged, while the blue-chip DS30 gained 1 point.

Market breadth, however, stayed negative on the DSE, with prices falling for 175 companies against gains for 140, while 78 issues remained unchanged.

The turnover on the premier bourse declined by Tk 6 crore to Tk 352 crore, down from Tk 412 crore in the previous session.

In the block market, shares of 20 companies worth Tk 13 crore were traded, with Fine Foods Limited accounting for the highest turnover of Tk 4 crore.

Chartered Life Insurance PLC topped the DSE gainers’ list after its share price rose 7 percent, while Premier Leasing and Finance Limited plunged 10 percent to become the worst performer of the day.Financial planning tools

The CSE extended its losing streak for a second consecutive session, with the All Share Price Index (CASPI) shedding 20 points.

Most stocks closed lower on the port city bourse as prices declined for 83 companies, rose for 43, and remained unchanged for 19.

The turnover on the CSE, however, increased to Tk 7 crore from Tk 4 crore a day earlier.

S. Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited topped the CSE gainers with a 10 percent rise, while FAS Finance and Investment Limited ended at the bottom of the chart, losing 10 percent.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has been recommended as the licensing authority for microcredit banks by the technical committee working on the draft ordinance containing regulations for these institutions.

The draft Microcredit Bank Ordinance 2025, unveiled by the Financial Institutions Division (FID), had named the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA) as the licensing body.

However, industry leaders opposed the proposal, warning that it would create a dual licensing system with BB being the regulator for banking institutions in general.

The Daily Star has seen the recommendations by the review panel.

It also recommended doubling the minimum paid-up capital requirement for a microcredit bank to Tk 200 crore and authorised capital to Tk 500 crore from the previous Tk 300 crore.

Changes were proposed in board composition as well. The original draft suggested three directors from borrower-shareholders, three from other shareholders, and the managing director as a board member.

The review committee recommended a new structure with four borrower-shareholder directors, three from other shareholders, two independent directors nominated by the licensing authority, and a non-voting managing director.

The Bangladesh Bank will also have the authority to remove directors or reconstruct the entire board – powers not included in the original draft.

Another key change concerns liquidation. Liquidation of microcredit banks will now follow the provisions of the Bank Company Act, reversing the draft’s proposal that excluded them from this law.

The review comes following debates over licensing authority, profit motives, and other governance issues, prompting the government to form an eleven-member technical review committee led by Sayed Kutub, additional secretary of the FID.

The original draft had envisioned microcredit banks combining the outreach of microfinance organisations with commercial banking services, offering products ranging from savings accounts to agricultural loans without requiring collateral.

It proposed that microfinance banks would operate as social institutions, prioritising support for new entrepreneurs and providing loans either in cash or other forms for a wide range of economic activities.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has allowed the import of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) under suppliers’ or buyers’ credit, in a move aimed at easing financing pressure on local importers amid a deepening LPG supply crisis.

The BB issued a circular in this regard yesterday, saying LPG imports would be eligible for usance terms of up to 270 days.

The move comes as residents and restaurants are struggling to cook daily meals amid a worsening gas crisis affecting both pipeline supplies and bottled LPG.

LPG prices have gone up by Tk 350 to Tk 900, depending on the cylinder size, amid limited supply. LPG cylinders are being sold at prices higher than the government-fixed rates, affecting both households and businesses.

BB said LPG is imported in bulk and later bottled in cylinders for domestic use, a process that requires additional time for storage, bottling, and other operational activities.

Considering this operational reality, the central bank said LPG should be treated as an industrial raw material for trade credit.

Under existing foreign exchange regulations, imports of industrial raw materials are permissible under suppliers’ or buyers’ credit for a usance period of up to 270 days, or the cash conversion cycle, whichever is earlier.

In addition to suppliers’ credit, BB advised banks to arrange buyers’ credit facilities from overseas banks and financial institutions.

Banks may also facilitate bill discounting through offshore banking units of scheduled banks in Bangladesh, subject to compliance with prevailing foreign exchange regulations and prudential credit norms.

The move is expected to provide greater flexibility to LPG importers, helping them better manage cash flows amid rising import costs and tight liquidity conditions.

President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the US, as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Tariffs are paid by US importers of goods from those countries. Iran has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years.

"This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said without providing any further detail. Top export destinations for Iranian goods include China, the United Arab Emirates and India.

There was no official documentation from the White House of the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran's trading partners. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran, which had a 12-day war with US ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the US military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.

Trump has said the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran's opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment. US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people – 510 protesters and 89 security personnel – since the protests began on 28 December.

While air strikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, "diplomacy is always the first option for the president," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with US adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump's trade policy is under legal pressure as the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump's existing tariffs.

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producers group, exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank's most recent data.

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a 25 percent tariff on any country trading with Iran, ramping up pressure on Tehran over its violent crackdown on a wave of protests.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said on Truth Social.

Iran's main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to the economic database Trading Economics.

The tariffs announcement comes as Trump mulls possible military action against Iran over the protests. Rights groups have reported a growing death toll.

"Air strikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said earlier Monday.

But she said Iran also had a diplomatic channel open to Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, adding that Iran was taking a "far different tone" in private than it was in its public statements.

A Japanese mining ship departed on Monday for a remote coral atoll to probe mud rich in rare earths, part of Tokyo's drive to curb its reliance on China for critical minerals as Beijing tightens supply.

The month-long mission of the test vessel Chikyu near Minamitori Island some 1,900 km (1,200 miles) southeast of Tokyo, will mark the world's first attempt to continuously lift rare-earth seabed sludge from 6 km (4 miles) deep onto a ship.

Japan, like its Western allies, has been reducing its dependence on China for the minerals vital to the production of cars, smartphones and military equipment, an effort that has taken on urgency amid a major diplomatic dispute with Beijing.

"After seven years of steady preparation, we can finally begin the confirmation tests. It's deeply moving," Shoichi Ishii, the head of the government-backed project told Reuters, as the vessel departed the port city of Shizuoka on a bright sunny day, with a snow-capped Mount Fuji in the background.

"If this project succeeds, it will be of great significance in diversifying Japan's rare earth resource procurement," he said, adding that recovering the key minerals from 6 km below sea level would be a major technological achievement.

The vessel, with 130 crew and researchers, is scheduled to return to the port on 14 February.

Reducing reliance on China won't be easy

Last week, China banned exports of items destined for Japan's military that have civilian and military uses, including some critical minerals. The Wall Street Journal reported Beijing has also begun restricting rare-earth exports to Japan more broadly.

Japan has condemned China's dual-use ban but declined to comment on the report of a broader ban, which China has not confirmed or denied. Chinese state media, though, have said Beijing was weighing the measure.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial powers will discuss rare-earth supplies at a meeting in Washington on Monday, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Japan is no stranger to facing China's wrath over rare earths. In 2010, China held back exports following an incident near disputed islands in the East China Sea.

Since then, Japan has reduced its reliance on China to 60% from 90% by investing in overseas projects like trading house Sojitz's tie-up with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, and promoting rare-earths recycling and manufacturing processes that rely less on the minerals.

The Minamitori Island project, however, is the first to attempt to source rare earths domestically.

"The fundamental solution is to be able to produce rare earths inside Japan," said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute.

"If this new round of export controls ends up covering a lot of rare earths, Japanese companies will again make efforts to move away from China, but I don't think it will be easy," he said.

For some heavy rare earths, such as those used for magnets in electric- and hybrid-vehicle motors, Japan is almost totally dependent on China, analysts say — a major risk for its key automotive industry.

Long-term project

Since the 2010 scare, the Japanese government and private companies have built stockpiles of the minerals, though they do not disclose volumes.

At a New Year's party for Japan's mining industry on Wednesday, several executives said they were better prepared than before to cope with the potential disruption, citing Japan's diversification efforts and stockpiles.

But Kazumi Nishikawa, principal director of economic security at the trade ministry, said the government had to continually remind companies to diversify their supply chains.

"Sometimes, you know, some event happened, then the business reacts, but the event finishes, the business forgets. We have to maintain continuous efforts," Nishikawa said on the China Talk podcast this week.

The Minamitori Island project, into which the government has sunk 40 billion yen ($250 million) since 2018, is also a long-term play.

Its estimated reserves have not been disclosed and no production target has been set. But if it succeeds, a full-scale mining trial will be conducted in February 2027.

Mining the mud was previously viewed as uneconomical due to high costs. But if supply disruption from China continues and buyers become willing to pay higher prices, the project could become viable in coming years, said Kotaro Shimizu, principal analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.

China is keeping a close watch. When the ship was conducting surveys around the island in June last year, a fleet of Chinese naval ships sailed nearby, Ishii said.

"We feel a strong sense of crisis that such intimidating actions were taken," he said. China said its actions were in line with international law and called on Japan to "refrain from hyping up threats".

Health and education sectors have taken the major brunt of a sizeable cut in the current development budget halfway through the fiscal year.

The ongoing Annual Development Programme (ADP) outlay for the fiscal year 2025-26 has been cut by 13.04 per cent to Tk 2.0 trillion.

With Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus in the chair, the National Economic Council (NEC) in its meeting Monday endorsed the pared-down RADP.

The size of the RADP has been reduced by Tk 300 billion from the original ADP allocation of Tk 2.30 trillion, Planning Adviser Professor Wahiduddin Mahmud told journalists.

In the trimming meant to make two ends meet, the health sector emerged as the hardest hit by the fiscal tightening. The government has withdrawn approximately Tk 134.29 billion from the original allocation, representing a staggering 73-percent cut.

The allocation for healthcare services plummeted from an original Tk 181.48 billion to a mere Tk 47.18 billion in the RADP following the deepest cut.

Health Services Division saw its budget slashed by 73 per cent while Health Education and Family Welfare Division faced a 77-percent reduction.

Major initiatives like the establishment of cancer, kidney, and heart-treatment centres in eight divisional cities and the construction of 500-bed medical college hospitals in Jashore, Cox's Bazar and Pabna may face delays or downsizing, Planning Commission officials said.

They cited "poor implementation capacity" and a "shortage of projects" as the primary reasons for withdrawing over Tk 130 billion from the sector.

Another priority sector, education, is not spared, too. Its development budget slashed by approximately 35 per cent or roughly Tk 100 billion, bringing the final figure down to about Tk 185 billion. Secondary and higher education specifically witnessed a 55-percent cut.

Prof Mahmud explains the budgetary arithmetic that determines the revised allocations. "Health and education sectors have been passing through a transition from the sectoral development-programme approach to project-based approach."

Furthermore, transport and communications sector-traditionally the highest recipient of funds-saw a 35-percent reduction. A notable feature here is the Airport-Kamalapur MRT Line-1 project faced a drastic 90-percent cut after implementing agencies failed to submit fund demand.

The highest government economic body approved cut in the allocations from government funds by Tk 160 billion (11.11 per cent) while foreign loans and grants by Tk 140 billion or 16.27 per cent.

Government funding has been reduced from Tk1.44 billion to Tk1.28 billion (64 per cent), while allocations from foreign loans and grants have been cut from Tk 860 billion to Tk720 billion (36 per cent).

Officials at the commission say demands from ministries and divisions are also lower in the revised ADP.

According to officials, the lower RADP demand is mainly due to slow implementation during the current fiscal year that witnesses spillover impacts of political upheavals surrounding the upsurge and election frays.

They say many projects are progressing slowly because of the absence of project directors and delays in appointing new ones.

The government is also reviewing several large projects, which has led to reduced allocation demands for many projects.

Additionally, as the current year is an election year, ministries and divisions have shown relatively lower demand for allocations.

According to Planning Commission data, the transport and communications sector has received the highest allocation of Tk385.09 billion, or 19.25 per cent of the total RADP.

Power and energy sector received the second-highest allocation of Tk 261.86 billion, or 13.09 per cent of the total RADP allocations.

Other major allocations include housing and community amenities with Tk227.30 billion (11.36 per cent) education with Tk 185.50 billion (9.27 per cent), and local government and rural development with Tk 15143 billion (7.57 per cent).

Social-protection sector has also faced a substantial fund cut. While Tk 20.18 billion was allocated in the original ADP, the RADP reduced the sum by 73 per cent to Tk 5.45 billion.

Planning Commission sources say allocations to the power sector have been reduced by 19 per cent, while the agriculture sector has seen a 21 per cent cut.

Among ministries and divisions, the Local Government Division (LGD) received the highest allocation, amounting to Tk375.34 billion, or 18.77 per cent of the total RADP. Its allocation is 4.0-percent lower than in the original ADP.

The Road Transport and Highways Division received the second-highest allocation of Tk 199.49 billion (9.97 per cent), although allocation got reduced by 38 per cent compared to the original ADP.

Power Division ranks third, with an allocation of Tk148.96 billion (7.45 per cent), reflecting a 27-percent reduction from the original ADP.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has received Tk120.29 billion (6.0 per cent), followed by the Ministry of Water Resources with Tk 105.32 billion, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education with Tk 80.54 billion, and the Secondary and Higher Education Division with Tk61.90 billion.

A total of Tk 301.59 billion has been allocated under development assistance for special needs.

In addition, Tk 31 billion has been allocated for five development-assistance items under the Local Government Division, Tk5.30 billion for the Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs and Tk1.00 billion for special areas.

Besides, the NEC allocated Tk 89.35 billion for projects implemented by autonomous bodies and corporations through their own financing. Including these self-financed projects, the total size of the RADP stands at Tk 2.089 trillion.

The revised development budget holds a total of 1,330 projects, including 1,108 investment projects, 35 feasibility studies, 121 technical-assistance projects and 66 self-financed projects.

Planning officials say the revised ADP includes 664 new unapproved projects for implementation with government financing, 157 new unapproved projects aimed at facilitating foreign financing and 35 projects to be implemented by autonomous bodies or corporations through their own financing.

A total of 286 projects have been earmarked for completion under the RADP.

Bearing the brunt of reduced business and mounting losses, Miracle Industries, a listed company in the miscellaneous sector, has failed to make a turnaround in operations and profitability in the first half of the current fiscal year.

The company remained in the red during the July-December period, posting a loss of Tk4.86 crore, according to a disclosure published on the stock exchanges' website yesterday. It said a further fall in selling prices, coupled with higher interest expenses, kept the company in a loss-making position.

According to the revised disclosure, Miracle Industries posted a loss per share of Tk1.38 for the July-December period, widening from Tk0.99 in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Its net operating cash flow per share stood at negative Tk0.13, an improvement from negative Tk1.49 in the July to December period of 2024.

However, in its initially published disclosure, the company reported a loss per share of Tk0.61 for the first half, compared with a loss per share of Tk0.14 in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In September last year, Miracle Industries secured a business deal with Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), under which the state-run corporation will purchase 50% of its total requirement of woven polypropylene (WPP) and polyethylene (PE) bags from the company.

At the time, the company expected its revenue to double from these orders and positively impact its net profit. BCIC remains the company's main buyer.

Founded in 1995 as a joint venture between state-owned BCIC and four entrepreneurs, Miracle Industries manufactures bags used for cement, fertiliser, salt, feed, sugar, food grains and chemicals.

The company operates two manufacturing units in Sreepur and Gazipur – one catering to the local market and the other producing for export.

Bangladesh's steel and cement industries have spent much of the past two years in survival mode, battered by weak demand, high financing costs and a prolonged squeeze on margins.

Yet, even in this prolonged downturn, a group of large millers have managed to hold its ground, not because of any market recovery, but due to structural advantages built over time.

Industry insiders say the real dividing line is no longer pricing power alone. Companies that invested early in oceangoing vessels, feeder networks and energy-efficient production lines are now better placed to absorb shocks that continue to weigh on smaller producers.

In the cement sector, the advantage begins far from shore.

Large cement producers that own or control mother vessels can import clinker and other raw materials in parcels of 50,000 tonnes or more, significantly lowering freight costs. Brands such as Fresh, Shah, Crown and Akij fall into this category, according to industry insiders.

Smaller millers, by contrast, typically pool shipments, with three or four companies sharing a vessel, or rely on spot freight and lighterage, pushing up per-tonne costs.

"Small millers like us spend around $14 per tonne to import clinker, while large mills with their own vessels manage it at about $12," said Md Shahidullah, managing director of Metrocem Group, which has investments in both cement and steel.

"That difference may look small, but in a low-margin market it determines who survives," he said.

Beyond freight, vertically integrated supply chains, linking mother vessels to feeder ships and in-house logistics, also reduce uncertainty in delivery schedules, allowing larger producers to plan production more efficiently.

Technology has become second line of defence

Cement factories operating vertical roller mills (VRM) enjoy a production cost advantage of about Tk10 to Tk15 per bag compared with traditional tube or ball mills due to lower energy consumption and higher efficiency, Shahidullah said.

Major players including Shah Cement, Crown, Premier, 7 Rings, Akij and Bashundhara have already shifted to VRM-based production, insulating them from some of the cost pressures that continue to batter the industry.

But the entry barrier is steep. Industry insiders say at least Tk1,000 crore is needed to set up a VRM cement factory.

"Setting up a VRM plant requires an investment four to five times higher than a tube mill," said Mohammed Amirul Haque, managing director of Premier Cement Mills and president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association.

"A VRM factory consumes less energy and we use power-saving devices to reduce costs. Yet Premier Cement is running at 40-50% capacity because of subdued demand," he told The Business Standard.

Md Khurshed Alam, executive director of Fresh Cement, said big mills are surviving on volume rather than profits.

"There is overcapacity, so there is a price war," he said.

According to the cement association, installed capacity now stands at nearly 100 million tonnes of cement, while annual demand is only around 40 million tonnes. Until the 1990s, Bangladesh was almost entirely dependent on imports.

"Demand from the government has gone down to nearly zero and we are surviving on remittance-driven demand," Alam said.

Steel facing similar squeeze

Many steel mills are operating at just 35-40% capacity amid a prolonged slowdown in construction, including mega projects.

As in cement, large steel producers enjoy a cost advantage by importing raw materials in bulk, often using their own vessels.

"Per-container freight costs are about $30 lower for large mills compared with smaller ones," said Shahidullah of Metrocem Steel.

Data from the Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association show the country has around 400 steel mills with a combined capacity of about 9 million tonnes, against demand of roughly 4 million tonnes.

The top ten producers control nearly 70% of the market, with BSRM leading at about 20%, followed by AKS, GPH and KSRM.

Smaller millers fear they may be forced out as three large new plants, together adding almost half the capacity of dozens of existing mills, are set to intensify competition.

Two projects, Bashundhara Multi Steel with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes and Meghna Re-Rolling and Steel Mills with 1.5 million tonnes, are expected to come online this year. Chattogram-based Unitex Group is also setting up a one-million-tonne steel mill.

"The steel market has remained lean for nearly two years, and we expect demand to revive after the election,' said Mohammad Mazedul Islam, head of project at Bashundhara Multi Steel.

"We are preparing to enter the market by the end of this year," he said.

Mazedul said the technology being deployed would reduce production costs by about Tk5,000 per tonne, giving the company a significant competitive edge. Bashundhara has invested Tk4,500 crore in the project, which is expected to create around 1,000 jobs.

Industry insiders say the new entrants are betting on technology and scale to survive in an increasingly competitive market.

Mohammad Firoz, chief executive of Meghna Re-Rolling and Steel Mills, which has secured a $100 million financing package from the IFC, said he remains confident about the company's long-term prospects.

"We are using the latest technology, which will significantly reduce energy costs," he said.

"We can compete on scale, productivity and overheads. We are not worried," he added, while noting that market consolidation is likely as smaller mills struggle to compete with larger players on volume.

Despite long-standing health and environmental concerns linked to plastic factories in Old Dhaka, the government's effort to shift them to Munshiganj has made little progress over the past ten years. Although a modern plastic industrial city was approved in 2015, persistent land acquisition hurdles stalled the project at its outset.

The project was originally approved on 1 December 2015, with a target completion date of June 2018. Following multiple extensions, the deadline was last set for December 2025, but the project has just started and the timeline has now been pushed back again to December 2027, marking the project's fifth extension.

According to the Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (BSCIC) sources, 47% of earth filling work has been completed, while overall project progress stands at only 14-15%. Once land filling is finished, construction will begin in phases, BSCIC Chairman Saiful Islam said.

He said delays occurred mainly because the agency failed to secure the initially allocated land at the start of the project. Strong resistance from local residents prevented land acquisition for nearly seven years, from 2015 to 2022, and five project directors were unable to resolve the issue. Eventually, in 2023, the government decided to abandon the original site beside the expressway and relocate the project near the Chemical Industrial City.

According to BSCIC, the authority finally took possession of the new land on 15 July 2025. Boundary demarcation and pre-leveling work were completed despite adverse monsoon conditions, and earth-filling activities began soon after.

The plastic industrial city's initial estimated cost of Tk133 crore has risen to Tk509 crore, largely due to an expansion of the project area from 50 acres to 95 acres, inflation, and higher construction expenses. Project Director Md Anis Uddin explained that the expanded area doubled the length of roads, drains, and boundary walls, significantly increasing costs.

He also noted that earth-filling costs rose from Tk200 per cubic metre in 2012 to Tk510 in 2023. Despite these challenges, he expressed hope that the project would be completed by December 2027, though low river water levels during the dry season could hamper sand transportation and impede progress.

Industry leaders warn that prolonged delays are taking a toll on the sector. According to the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BPGMEA), plastic goods worth around Tk45,000 crore are produced and sold domestically, contributing about Tk3,500 crore annually in internal revenue. In the 2024–25 fiscal year, Bangladesh exported plastic products to 126 countries, earning approximately $1.2 billion – a 20% year-on-year increase. The sector supports around 1.2 million people directly and indirectly.

BPGMEA President Shamim Ahmed said plastic factories operating within Dhaka remain in hazardous conditions, frequently facing fire risks that endanger workers and nearby residents. He expressed frustration that the Munshiganj project has remained unfinished for nearly 10 years, saying the delay is hurting exports, damaging Bangladesh's image, and creating financial and psychological stress for entrepreneurs.

Regarding plot allocations, the BSCIC chairman said plots will only be handed over once the project is fully completed. He said the authority recognises the plastic industry's vast potential and is keen to complete the project swiftly to help the sector grow and attract new investment.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has reported an encouraging response to its online income tax return (e-return) system in the 2025–26 tax year, with a marked rise in participation from expatriate Bangladeshis despite the service not being mandatory for them.

According to an NBR media release issued this evening (12 January), around 4.553 million taxpayers have so far registered with the e-return system, while 3.188 million taxpayers have already submitted their income tax returns online for the 2025–26 tax year.

Under a special order issued by the NBR, online submission of income tax returns has been made mandatory for all individual taxpayers, except senior citizens aged 65 years and above, physically challenged and special-needs taxpayers, Bangladeshis residing abroad, legal representatives filing returns on behalf of deceased taxpayers, and foreign nationals working in Bangladesh.

The e-return submission system for the 2025–26 tax year was formally inaugurated on August 4, 2025, by Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed through the NBR's dedicated website, www.etaxnbr.gov.bd.

Although expatriate Bangladeshis are exempt from the mandatory online filing requirement, a growing number of them are voluntarily using the digital platform to submit their tax returns.

The NBR noted that Bangladeshis living abroad are increasingly embracing the e-return system, reflecting rising trust and confidence in the country's digital tax services.

To facilitate overseas taxpayers, the NBR has introduced a simplified registration process.

Non-resident Bangladeshis can apply for access to the e-return system by sending their passport number, national identity card number, email address and other relevant information to ereturn@etaxnbr.gov.bd.

Upon verification, the applicants receive a one-time password (OTP) and a registration link via email, enabling them to complete registration and submit their returns online from abroad.

So far, nearly 5,000 expatriate Bangladeshis have successfully completed registration using OTPs sent to their email addresses.

Of them, around 3,300 non-resident taxpayers have already paid income tax online from overseas and submitted their e-returns for the current tax year.

The NBR also reported that, on average, around 100 expatriate taxpayers per day are seeking e-return-related services via email from abroad, which are being handled by the e-Tax Management Unit under the revenue board.

Officials said the strong participation of expatriate Bangladeshis, alongside domestic taxpayers, is providing a significant boost to the NBR's digital transformation drive and strengthening the momentum of its technology-based taxpayer services.

The revenue authority expressed optimism that the growing acceptance of the e-return system would help improve tax compliance, reduce administrative hassles and ensure greater transparency in tax administration.

The NBR has urged all individual taxpayers, including expatriate Bangladeshis, to submit their 2025–26 income tax returns by January 31, 2026, through the e-return system, while pledging to enhance the platform and expand digital services for easier, faster, and more taxpayer-friendly compliance.

Unilever Consumer Care, a listed multinational company formerly known as GlaxoSmithKline, has been removed from the Dhaka Stock Exchange’s (DSE) main index, the DSEX, after failing to meet eligibility criteria.

It was excluded alongside 15 other companies during the latest periodic review. The removal means their share prices will no longer factor into the calculation of the market’s overall performance.

At the same time, nine companies were added to the index after meeting the same criteria. Six belong to the DSE’s Z category -- stocks considered non-performing due to weak fundamentals or governance issues. One is from the low-performing B category, and only two are A-category companies, generally regarded as financially sound.

The inclusion of such stocks in the benchmark index, alongside the exclusion of a stable multinational, sends a troubling signal to institutional and foreign investors, say experts.

The DSE said the reshuffle was based on objective indicators.

To qualify for the DSEX, a company must have a float-adjusted market capitalisation above Tk 10 crore and an average daily trading value of at least Tk 10 lakh over the previous six months. Unilever Consumer Care fell short on the latter, with its shares traded too infrequently to meet the liquidity threshold.

In contrast, several Z-category stocks comfortably exceeded the minimum trading requirement despite weak financial performance and minimal dividend payouts.

A MARKET DRIVEN BY SPECULATION

The review highlights a striking trend of investors showing greater interest in speculative, low-quality stocks than in a multinational company that paid a 520 percent cash dividend in 2024.

Six of the newly included Z-category firms -- BD Welding, DESCO, Dulamia Cotton, Safko Spinning, Standard Ceramics, and Zeel Bangla Sugar Mills -- returned little or nothing to shareholders in the last fiscal year.

Dulamia Cotton, for instance, paid a 3 percent dividend, its first in at least 15 years, according to DSE data.

Analysts say the rush into non-performing stocks is driven more by speculation than fundamentals.

Many of these Z-category stocks trade actively on persistent rumours of future gains, often without verifiable evidence. Their relatively small paid-up capital also makes them easier to manipulate, as modest trading volumes can sharply move prices.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association (DBA), said the trend reflected “blatantly illogical” investor behaviour.

“It indicates our investors take decisions on their own without relying on professionals. The market also lacks educated, professional brokers. It’s been a dry market for a long time,” he said.

Saiful added that the removal of a company like Unilever sends a “ruinous message to foreign investors” and called for the DSEX inclusion criteria to be reconsidered.

The trading pattern has also been reinforced by the absence of foreign and institutional investors. “Foreign and institutional investors are not active in the market, which has allowed small investors to drive up the prices of certain companies,” said Iftekhar Alam, president of the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association.

BEXIMCO AND FLOOR PRICE DEBATE

Among those excluded from the index is Beximco Ltd, a large-cap stock that remains subject to a regulatory floor price -- a minimum level below which its shares cannot fall.

At present, only Islami Bank and Beximco continue to enjoy such protection. Market analysts say Beximco’s share price could decline sharply if the floor is lifted, particularly amid concerns over ownership and governance.

Regulators had previously hesitated to remove Beximco’s floor price because of the company’s heavy weight in the index, which could have dragged the market lower.

With Beximco now removed from the DSEX, that constraint has eased, increasing the likelihood that the floor price could be withdrawn.

Auditors have expressed serious concern over the financial position of Altex Industries Limited, a company listed on the stock exchange, for the fiscal year 2024-25, citing massive debt discrepancies and an inability to meet loan obligations.

As of 30 June 2025, the company's retained earnings were negative, amounting to Tk86.24 crore.

The company failed to repay scheduled loan instalments, and Tk3.07 crore of loans have been classified as "bad and loss," remaining unpaid for a prolonged period.

The company has been unable to arrange funds to settle these loans, raising significant uncertainty over its ability to continue as a going concern.
The share price of the company closed at Tk13.50 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) yesterday.

In the case of Prime Bank, bank confirmation indicates that the company's actual loan liability was Tk94.56 crore, while the company's books reported only Tk17.20 crore.

No provision of Tk68.27 lakh for interest was made, resulting in an overstatement of profit before tax and an understatement of bank loan liability.

For Sonali Bank, the company's loan stood at Tk227.52 crore, but interest of approximately Tk22.75 crore was not charged, causing loan liabilities to be understated and profit before tax to be overstated.

Similarly, for ONE Bank, the absence of interest provisions led to an understatement of loan liability by Tk1.56 crore.

Auditors also noted that although the company collected Tk32.51 crore from accounts receivable during the fiscal year, approximately 64% of collections were made in cash, posing a significant operational risk.

Additionally, the company paid Tk5.25 crore in advance to Cube Development Limited for factory construction, and a contingent liability of Tk6.93 crore with Titas Gas remains unsettled. Interest income of Tk1,034,674 from fixed deposits has been recorded as financial expenses, which is inconsistent with accounting standards.

The company's primary raw material is grey fabric, yet its usage rate relative to total sales is only 21%, which appears unusual. During the fiscal year, the company made no export sales, with all sales restricted to the domestic market. Furthermore, approximately 69% of the company's total funds are debt-dependent, increasing financial expenses and raising concerns about its financial stability.

According to the auditors, these circumstances create significant uncertainty regarding the company's ability to continue as a going concern. They emphasised the urgent need for proper loan management, interest provisioning, cash transaction control, and resolution of contingent liabilities.

In December 2024, Sonali Bank decided to sell the mortgaged assets of Alltex Industries through an auction to recover the outstanding loans of the listed textile manufacturer.

To recover the funds, the bank plans to auction 14.7 acres of Alltex's land, its manufacturing facilities and offices, raw materials, and spare parts, all of which were mortgaged for the loan.

Prices of mild steel (MS) bars in Bangladesh have begun to rise as a rebound in global ferrous scrap prices pushes up replacement costs for local re-rolling mills, raising concerns over construction expenses for homebuilders and contractors.

Industry insiders said imported scrap prices have increased by around $25-30 per tonne over the past week, reversing a prolonged downward trend seen over the last year.

The higher replacement cost is now feeding into the domestic market, with several small and mid-sized mills already raising rod prices by up to Tk1,000 per tonne in different regions.

Large producers are also expected to adjust prices soon, according to Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association (BSMA) President and GPH Ispat Chairman Jahangir Alam.

"Due to weak demand, steel prices have been declining in Bangladesh for nearly a year. At present, MS rods are selling at the lowest levels in the last five years," Jahangir told The Business Standard. "With the onset of winter, global scrap prices have risen sharply, leaving local manufacturers with no option but to adjust prices."

He further noted that rod prices in the Dhaka market rose by Tk1,000-1,500 per tonne on Thursday alone, adding that companies may eventually need to raise prices by Tk3,000-4,000 per tonne to remain aligned with international costs.

Data from international price reporting agency Argus show Turkey's deep-sea heavy melting steel (HMS) 1/2 (80:20) scrap benchmark falling to around $336 per tonne during the summer downturn before rebounding to the $360-370 range in early December.

Turkey, the world's largest seaborne scrap importer, often sets the direction of global prices. Market participants said renewed Turkish buying, combined with winter-related supply disruptions in Europe and North America, has tightened availability and pushed prices higher.

Moreover, during winter, scrap collection, transportation and port operations slow significantly in Western markets, reducing spot supply.

In parallel, India's increased presence in the import market has intensified competition for scrap cargoes, making it harder for Bangladeshi mills to secure material on favourable terms.

However, despite some wholesale price increases by producers, retail prices in Dhaka and Chattogram remained largely unchanged until Thursday, market checks found.

Chattogram-based trader Asaduzzaman, proprietor of Zaman Enterprise, said premium-grade BCSR rebar was selling at Tk80,000 per tonne, AKS and KSRM at Tk78,000, and GPH Ispat at Tk76,000.

"No company has officially announced a price hike yet, but we have been informally informed that prices will be raised within this week," he said.

While a few mills have already increased wholesale prices, major producers such as BSRM and AKS have so far refrained from immediate adjustments. Company officials said demand remains relatively weak compared to previous winter seasons, forcing cautious pricing decisions.

BSMA Secretary General and Rani Re-Rolling Mills Chairman Sumon Chowdhury said seasonal price increases during December to February are common due to higher international scrap demand.

"Bangladesh has no coordinated pricing mechanism. Mills are forced to react individually to global price movements," he said.

Anwar Group Chairman Manwar Hossain said the steel sector has faced prolonged financial stress since the pandemic.

"Negative returns over an extended period caused severe capital erosion, eventually forcing many factories to shut down," he said. "With scrap prices rising globally, local manufacturers now have no alternative but to raise prices."

During the Covid-era global scrap shortage, premium-grade rebar prices in Bangladesh surged to as high as Tk110,000 per tonne. A global slowdown and weak domestic demand later pushed prices down to Tk70,000-80,000 per tonne last year, the lowest level in five years.

Bangladesh's annual steel demand is estimated at 8-9 million tonnes, driven mainly by housing, infrastructure and industrial construction. The country's installed steelmaking capacity exceeds 11 million tonnes, indicating significant overcapacity amid slowing demand.

The sector has seen investments worth tens of thousands of crores of taka over the past decade, including major expansions by BSRM, GPH Ispat, AKS and KSRM. Despite this, capacity utilisation has remained under pressure due to subdued construction activity and volatility in raw material prices.

Bangladesh produces around 7 million tonnes of steel products annually and imports more than 4.2 million tonnes of scrap and billet to support production, industry data show.

Traders said sustained firmness in global scrap prices could keep local rebar prices under upward pressure in the coming weeks, even if domestic demand remains modest.

Bangladesh's four local airlines are preparing for an aggressive push into international markets in 2026 despite a global shortage of aircraft and tight leasing conditions slowing their plans to take on foreign rivals that dominate the country's skies.

The carriers are targeting South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe, where demand from migrant workers and leisure travellers remains strong.

International passenger numbers are rising. Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport handled about 12.5 million international passengers in 2024, nearly 7% more than a year earlier. Yet, airlines say the post-pandemic recovery, coupled with manufacturing bottlenecks and delivery delays, has made it difficult to secure aircraft for new routes.

More than 70% of Bangladesh's international air travel market is currently controlled by 37 foreign airlines.

Industry insiders said the three private carriers, US-Bangla, NovoAir and Air Astra, together plan to open at least 15 new international routes. State-run Biman Bangladesh Airlines also aims to add more destinations beyond its Dhaka to Karachi relaunch on 29 January, subject to aircraft availability.

At present, only US-Bangla and Biman operate international flights, while NovoAir and Air Astra remain focused on domestic services.

Between 2021 and 2025, about 50 lakh Bangladeshis migrated overseas for work, according to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training. Although domestic air travel has softened on some routes due to improved road and rail links, overall passenger traffic continues to grow, driven mainly by outbound labour and regional travel.

US-Bangla targets Europe and the Middle East

US-Bangla has spent several years preparing to enter the European market.

"We have been working extensively to start operations on the London and Rome routes," Kamrul Islam said. "It is not just about submitting applications. Airlines must meet strict international standards. Our target is to launch European flights within this year."

The airline also plans to begin flights to Madinah this year and needs at least three to four additional aircraft to support its expansion.

Capacity constraints, however, limit how quickly it can respond to changes in demand. "If India suddenly relaxes its visa regime, we will not be able to scale up flights immediately on high-demand routes like Chennai or Kolkata," Kamrul Islam said. "Earlier we operated daily flights to Chennai, which have now fallen to three a week. Kolkata has dropped from 14 flights a week to just three or four."

NovoAir eyes six new international routes

After three years of attempts to secure aircraft, NovoAir is hoping 2026 will mark its entry into international markets.

The airline has been trying to lease planes since 2023 but has struggled due to the global shortage of lease-ready aircraft. Its original plan was to acquire Airbus A321s, later revised to include A320s, but it has yet to secure any jets. Efforts to lease aircraft under the ACMI model, which includes crew, maintenance and insurance, have also been constrained by limited availability.

Managing Director Mofizur Rahman said a delegation would travel to Dublin later this month to hold talks with leasing firms. "If we can secure aircraft there, we hope to launch our international network by mid-year," he said.

NovoAir's initial targets are Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore in Southeast Asia, and Dubai, Sharjah and Muscat in the Middle East.

Air Astra targets South and Southeast Asia

Air Astra also plans to enter international markets once it expands its fleet.

"We expect to receive new aircraft through leasing by the first half of 2026," said Sakib Hasan Shuvo, the airline's deputy manager of public relations. "After that, we plan to launch international routes, with Nepal, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Singapore as our primary targets."

He said the airline has already received frequency allocations for 12 international routes from aviation authorities.

Biman's plans hinge on aircraft

Biman Bangladesh Airlines currently operates 22 international routes and plans to expand into East Asia, Europe and the United States. But aircraft availability remains the key constraint.

"Our expansion depends entirely on acquiring new aircraft through leasing," said Biman spokesperson Boshra Islam.

Although Biman's board has approved the purchase of 14 Boeing aircraft, officials said it would take at least four to five years before the first deliveries. In the meantime, the airline is negotiating with lessors to bridge the gap.

Earlier this year, Biman Managing Director Md Shafiqur Rahman said the airline was directly engaging leasing companies to overcome the shortage, which has so far prevented the launch of new routes.

Aircraft shortage slows expansion

Local airlines began planning route expansions to Southeast Asia and the Middle East in mid-2023, but global supply disruptions have delayed execution, sector insiders said.

The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted supply chains, while production halts and delivery delays, particularly involving Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, have created a worldwide shortage of narrow-body jets. As a result, airlines have struggled to secure planes through leasing.

"We have been consistently adding aircraft, and with recent additions our fleet now stands at 25, mostly leased," said Kamrul Islam, spokesperson for US-Bangla Airlines. "But a post-Covid surge in demand has created a global aircraft shortage. Manufacturers and lessors have not been able to keep up, especially for Boeing aircraft."

He said the company expects conditions to ease gradually as production normalises.

Bank deposit growth in Bangladesh reached its highest level in 20 months, standing at 10.80% at the end of November 2025, driven largely by a strong surge in remittance inflows, even as the domestic economy remained subdued.

According to data released by the Bangladesh Bank today (11 January), the total volume of bank deposits stood at Tk19.53 lakh crore at the end of November 2025, up from Tk17.62 lakh crore in November 2024.

The previous month's growth, recorded at the end of October, was 9.62%, while the last time growth exceeded 10% was in February 2024, when it stood at 10.43%.

Remittance flows as key driver

Economists and bankers largely attribute the strong growth to the robust inflow of remittances.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that the remittance flow contributed the most to the deposit growth, noting that flows were "very good" during November and December. He explained that dollars arriving through the banking channel are converted into taka, which then comes into the banking sector.

"The domestic economy is still depressed, so the growth is not coming from there," Zahid said. "Savings increase when domestic income and remittances rise. Remittances increased in the last two months of 2025, but no signs of increasing domestic income were visible."

He also discounted the idea that reduced panic in the banking sector – despite central bank confidence-building measures – was the primary cause, noting that the "currency outside banks" figure shows little change.

Cenbank's dollar purchase aids liquidity

The increase in remittances, which stood at $2.88 billion in November 2025, has positively impacted the commercial banks' Net Open Position. This has led banks to sell their excess dollars to the central bank, resulting in taka flowing from the central bank into the commercial banking system. The Bangladesh Bank has purchased $3.75 billion from commercial banks so far in the current fiscal year.

Md Ahsan-uz Zaman, managing director of Midland Bank, confirmed this view, saying, "The Bangladesh Bank is buying dollars through auction, increasing market liquidity. This influx of funds is helping to boost bank deposits." He also mentioned that some deposits were accumulated due to the formation of a collective Islamic bank.

A private bank's head of treasury noted that deposit growth correlates directly with the remittance flow, stressing that the domestic income situation is currently "not very good."

Data analysis shows that within the first 11 months of 2025, only August and November recorded double-digit bank deposit growth.

Currency outside banking system declines

Adding to the positive trend, Bangladesh Bank data shows that the volume of currency held outside banks fell by 3.04% year-on-year in November 2025 to Tk2.69 lakh crore, compared to Tk2.77 lakh crore in the same month of 2024.

A senior central bank official suggested that money held outside banks is gradually returning to the formal financial system.

Kay & Que (Bangladesh) Limited has signed an Application-to-Person (A2P) aggregator agreement with Grameenphone, in a move that strengthens the company's push into digital services and deepens its role in the country's telecom value chain.

Under the agreement, signed within the licensing framework of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC), Kay & Que will act as an aggregator for the country's largest mobile operator, enabling enterprises and service providers to send bulk and transactional SMS to Grameenphone subscribers through its platform.

The company disclosed the price-sensitive information on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) website today (11 January), saying the deal is expected to contribute positively to its business operations and revenue.

Despite the announcement, Kay & Que's share price fell 1.35% to close at Tk387.10 on the day, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid broader market volatility.

The deal with Grameenphone is the latest in a series of similar agreements the company has signed with mobile operators in recent weeks. On 28 December, Kay & Que entered into an A2P aggregator agreement with Robi Axiata. Before that, it signed separate agreements with Teletalk Bangladesh on 11 December and Banglalink on 8 December.

These partnerships follow the company's receipt of the A2P SMS Aggregator Enlistment Certificate from the BTRC on 29 September, which cleared the way for its formal entry into the regulated A2P messaging business.

Alongside its digital expansion, Kay & Que is also diversifying its traditional operations. The company recently informed the market that retail sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at its Dakshinpara Dhamrail unit began on 2 September 2025, a move expected to add a new stream of revenue.

Kay & Que, long known for its CNG refuelling stations and stone trading business, has gone through a major transformation since its merger with IT firm MultiSourcing Limited in July 2023.

The merger followed years of struggle in legacy businesses such as carbon rods, coal tar and pesticides, which were eventually shut down due to supply constraints, weak demand and persistent losses.

Recognising the need for a strategic shift, the company decided in February 2022 to refocus on its core CNG operations while building a technology-driven business model through the IT merger.

The shift has begun to show in its financial results. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk2.73 for the July-September 2025 quarter, up from Tk1.15 in the same period a year earlier.

For the full year ended 30 June 2025, Kay & Que posted EPS of Tk9.49, a sharp rise from Tk0.67 the year before, driven by higher turnover and improved profitability.

Bangladesh government has halted the import of onions from India through the country's largest land port, Benapole, for the past two weeks, raising concern about a price hike.

Importers, however, can continue bringing in onions under previously issued permits until 30 January.

Officials did not grant any new permits for onion imports from India on Saturday.

Shyamal Kumar Nath, Assistant Plant Quarantine Officer at Benapole, confirmed that onion imports from India have been halted for the past two weeks and no new permissions have been issued.

Onions can still be imported under previously issued permits until 30 January, he added.

Since 24 December, no onion shipments have entered through Benapole. The last consignment of 60 tonnes arrived on that date, while 390 tonnes were imported between 15 and 24 December through six consignments carried in 13 trucks.

Royal Islam, an onion importer, said the government usually allows onion imports when local prices rise sharply.

Imports of onion were resumed on 7 December after a three-month halt, initially in limited quantities, which did not meet demand. Later, when import permissions increased, prices began to stabilise, falling to Tk35–40 per kilogram.

Since imports have now been suspended again, prices are rising to Tk50–70 per kilogram, he said.

"If the halt continues, prices could climb to Tk80–85. Even the news of the suspension has already pushed prices up by Tk10 per kilogram at the port," he added.

Because of the harsh environment in Greenland, lack of key infrastructure and difficult geology have so far prevented anyone from building a mine to extract the sought-after rare earth elements that many high-tech products require. Besides President Donald Trump prevails in his effort to take control of the arctic island, those challenges won't go away.

Trump has made reducing China's dominance over the global rare earth supply a top priority since the world's second-largest economy sharply limited access to those materials after the United States imposed broad tariffs last spring. His administration has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the sector and has even acquired stakes in several companies. Now, the president is suggesting that taking control of Greenland from Denmark could be the answer.

"We are going to do something in Greenland whether they like it or not," Trump said Friday.

Greenland is unlikely to produce rare earths anytime soon, if at all. Although some companies are exploring its estimated 1.5 million tons of deposits, most projects remain at an early stage. Trump's interest in the island may be driven more by efforts to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic than by access to rare earths like neodymium and terbium used in advanced technologies.

"The fixation on Greenland has always been more about geopolitical posturing — a military-strategic interest and stock-promotion narrative — than a realistic supply solution for the tech sector," said Tracy Hughes, founder and executive director of the Critical Minerals Institute. "The hype far outstrips the hard science and economics behind these critical minerals."

Trump confirmed those geopolitical concerns at the White House Friday.

"We don't want Russia or China going to Greenland, which if we don't take Greenland, you can have Russia or China as your next-door neighbour. That's not going to happen," Trump said.

A difficult place to build a mine

Mining in Greenland faces major hurdles, including extreme remoteness, limited infrastructure, environmental risks, and harsh weather. Rare earths there are locked in complex eudialyte rock with no proven profitable extraction method. While Critical Metals' shares jumped after plans for a pilot plant, it and other companies remain far from building a mine and would need massive investment.

Producing rare earths is a tough business

Even the most promising rare earth projects can struggle to be profitable, especially when China floods the market with excess supply to lower prices and push competitors out, a tactic it has used repeatedly. Currently, most critical minerals are still processed in China.

The US is rushing to increase rare earth supplies outside China during a one-year easing of stricter restrictions that Trump said Xi Jinping agreed to in October. Several companies worldwide are already producing rare earths or magnets and can bring them to market faster than Greenland, which Trump has threatened to take militarily if Denmark refuses to sell it.

"There are very few folks that can rely on a track record for delivering anything in each of these instances, and that obviously should be where we start, and especially in my view if you're the U.S. government," said Dunn, whose company is already producing more than 2,000 metric tons of magnets each year at a plant in Texas from elements it gets outside of China.