All depositors of five troubled Islamic banks will receive their deposited funds within the next two years, Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur said today (15 January).

"The decision on refunding deposits was taken based on the advice and consent of the Shariah Council and every effort is being made to protect the interests of depositors," he said while speaking at a press briefing regarding the Sammolito Islamic banks.

He added that the process of returning depositors' money has also been designed strictly in accordance with Shariah Council guidelines.

The governor clarified that the government is not only returning the principal amounts. "Investment profits or interest that were recorded on paper up to 2024 will also be paid to depositors."

"If someone kept their money in these banks for a long period … say, 10 years … they will receive their full principal along with the returns that were shown for that period," he said.

"Even if those investments were mismanaged or did not actually take place due to failures of the previous management, the decision has been made to compensate depositors in full," he added.

Mansur added that although Islamic banking principles generally require losses from genuine investments to be shared among partners, in this case the losses have not been passed on to depositors. Instead, the government has assumed responsibility for the losses.

According to the governor, revised accounts for the 2024–25 fiscal year show significant financial losses at these banks, but neither past nor current losses have been imposed on depositors.

"There are some limitations under Islamic Shariah principles, which is why not all additional benefits could be provided. However, both the actual deposits and the profits recorded on paper have been paid," he said.

The governor also mentioned that a small group of troublemakers attempted to create unrest at several branches, particularly Union Bank, but no major damage occurred. He urged ordinary depositors not to be influenced by such activities.

Reassuring the public once again, Ahsan H Mansur said that after the appointment of new management, especially for deposits made after the first of this month, there are no restrictions on withdrawals.

Depositors can withdraw funds on demand and are receiving returns at market-based rates, he added.

India's civil aviation authorities have slapped a penalty of Rs22.20 crore on the country's biggest airline IndiGo for massive disruption of services in December 2025.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said in a statement today (17 January) that in addition to the fine, Indigo has been ordered to pledge a bank guarantee of Rs50 crore in favour of the civil aviation sector regulator to ensure compliance with the directives and long term systemic correction.

Responding to the DGCA order, IndiGo, which has over 60% share of India's burgeoning civil aviation market, said it will take full cognisance and take appropriate measures.

The DGCA said the imposition of financial penalty was decided after a four-member committee appointed by it made a comprehensive assessment of the circumstances leading to large-scale delays and flight cancellations by IndiGo from 3 to 5 December 2025, resulting in cancellation of 2,507 flights and delays of 1,852 flights and causing inconvenience to over three lakh passengers stranded at various airports.

The total penalty includes one-time systemic penalties of Rs1.8 crore.

The committee observed that IndiGo's management failed to adequately identify planning deficiencies, maintain sufficient operational buffers and effectively implement the revised Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) provisions, the statement said, adding "these lapses resulted in widespread flight delays and large-scale cancellations, causing inconvenience to passengers.

The DGCA said the inquiry committee conducted a detailed probe and thoroughly studied the network planning, rostering and software being deployed by Indigo for the same.

At its core, banking is about pricing and managing risk. Trouble begins when risk is quietly recycled within the system rather than reduced or spread adequately across the board. In trading bonds, that is increasingly what is happening in the country’s banking sector.

Commercial lenders issue subordinated bonds and buy them from one another to strengthen capital in line with regulatory requirements.

While this boosts capital ratios on paper, it does not attract funds from corporates or individual investors to the desired level, which goes against the very purpose of bank bond trading. The practice keeps risk tightly concentrated within the banking sector.

Put simply, it is like households in a neighbourhood lending to and borrowing from each other, rather than spreading risk by transacting with better-off groups. The exposure does not vanish; it just circulates.

In the three years since 2022, banks accounted for around 80 percent of subordinated bond investors, according to official data. The consequence hit three years later, when the Bangladesh Bank in 2025 put five ailing lenders in the merger process.

Of them, four banks collectively owe institutional investors about Tk 2,900 crore in Mudaraba subordinated bonds and more than Tk 1,000 crore in Mudaraba perpetual bonds.

That enormous Tk 3,000 crore could simply disappear from the books, since bond investments do not have the insurance protection deposits enjoy.

RISK BUILDING INSIDE

Under banking regulations, subordinated bonds count as Tier-2 capital. In the event of a failure, these bonds are repaid only after depositors and senior creditors, making them higher risk and higher return than deposits.

Banks deduct subordinated bonds from their demand and time liabilities but lend using the bond proceeds. This can worsen liquidity mismatches in a fragile banking system.

When banks subscribe to one another’s bonds, no fresh capital enters the sector. Even when corporates appear to buy bonds, many of these investors are provident funds of other banks, keeping exposure within the system.

“Deposits of one bank are effectively being shown as capital of another,” said AF Nesaruddin, former president of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh (ICAB). “That erodes the quality of capital.”

The Bangladesh Bank has previously recognised the danger of direct cross-buying, where two banks subscribe to each other’s bonds. The banking regulator instructed banks to avoid such transactions to limit contagion risk.

Banks then adopted somewhat a circular subscription, according to data.

Under this arrangement, Bank A buys Bank B’s bonds, Bank B buys Bank C’s, and Bank C buys Bank A’s. While technically compliant with the rules, the effect is much the same.

“It keeps almost the same risk within the system,” said Asif Khan, president of CFA Society Bangladesh, a platform for practitioners in the investment and fund management industry.

“If one bank fails, the stress spreads to others,” he added.

Khan said the practice goes against the spirit of the central bank’s directive but said banks are driven into it by a lack of investors. According to him, strengthening the demand side of the bond market could resolve the problem.

BANKS ARE NOT THE VILLAINS

Bankers and analysts say heavy reliance on bank-to-bank bond subscriptions is caused by a weak bond market rather than reckless behaviour by the lenders.

The country’s bond market has historically been thin, with limited liquidity and a narrow investor base. Although some subordinated bonds are listed on the stock exchange, trading is rare, making exits difficult.

As a result, individual investors shy away, while corporates hesitate to lock funds into long-term instruments.

Interest rates also work against bank bonds. In recent years, yields on risk-free treasury bills and bonds have exceeded returns on subordinated bank bonds.

“Why would investors subscribe to subordinated bonds when treasury rates are higher?” said Tanzim Alamgir, managing director and chief executive officer of UCB Investment Limited, which manages around 50 subordinated bonds.

Shah Md Ahsan Habib, a professor at the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said the lack of institutional investors leaves banks with few options.

“There are no vibrant bond markets and no institutional investor base, so banks are forced to go to other banks,” he commented.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, a former chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh, said banks have limited scope to sell subordinated bonds to corporates.

“Corporates are reluctant to invest in long-term instruments, while individual investors want liquidity,” said Rahman, who is also the managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank.

THE SCALE OF EXPOSURE

According to an analysis of 18 banks’ 2024 financial statements, around 80 percent of subordinated bonds were subscribed by other banks, while the rest went to corporates.

Among corporate subscribers, provident funds of banks still accounted for a large share.

In 2022, banks accounted for 96 percent of subscriptions. The ratio fell to 86 percent in 2023, showing a gradual rise in non-bank participation, though the market is still heavily skewed towards banks.

Of the 18 banks, Pubali Bank attracted the highest share of corporate subscribers at 65 percent. Nine banks failed to attract any corporate investors at all.

According to 2024 data, Agrani Bank subscribed Tk 350 crore of Mudaraba subordinated bonds issued by Exim Bank, while Standard Bank invested Tk 125 crore.

More than half of Exim Bank’s bondholders are now banks facing potential losses.

Mudaraba bonds issued by First Security Islami Bank and Union Bank were fully subscribed by other banks.

Since 2016, banks have issued subordinated bonds worth more than Tk 35,000 crore, according to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

WHAT REGULATORS ADMIT

A senior central bank official said the regulator ordered banks to include corporate subscribers after realising that bank-to-bank subscriptions weaken capital quality.

Arief Hossain Khan, spokesperson for the Bangladesh Bank, said subordinated bonds allow banks to reduce their capital deficit.

“It is true that when a bank invests in another bank’s bond, it ultimately sends deposits to capital, which is not happy information. So, the central bank is considering this and trying to increase participation of corporates instead of banks,” he added.

Abul Kalam, spokesperson for the BSEC, said subscriptions by banks do not create real capital, even though they count as Tier-2 capital.

“Deposits of one bank are shown as capital of another,” he said.

He added that small savings and corporate funds need to be channelled into bonds for the proceeds to qualify as genuine capital.

While BSEC requires bond issuers to list, a lack of buyers due to low trust in issuers remains a problem, added Kalam.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a raft of measures from trade to tourism on Friday at the first meeting between the countries’ leaders in Beijing in eight years.

The Canadian leader hailed a “landmark deal” under a “new strategic partnership” with China, turning the page on years of diplomatic spats, tit-for-tat arrests and tariff disputes.

Carney has sought to reduce his country’s reliance on the United States, its key economic partner and traditional ally, as President Donald Trump has aggressively raised tariffs on Canadian products.

“Canada and China have reached a preliminary but landmark trade agreement to remove trade barriers and reduce tariffs,” Carney told a news conference after meeting with Xi.

Under the deal, China — which used to be Canada’s largest market for canola seed — is expected to reduce tariffs on canola products by March 1 to around 15 percent, down from the current 84 percent.

China will also allow Canadian visitors to enter the country visa‑free.

In turn, Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) under new, preferential tariffs of 6.1 percent.

“This is a return to the levels that existed prior to recent trade frictions,” Carney said of the EV deal.

Trump, who has cut off trade talks with Ottawa and insists the United States does not need any products from its northern neighbour, told reporters it was “good” that Carney had secured an agreement during his trip. “If he can get a trade deal with China, he should do that,” the president said.

The head of the Canola Council of Canada, Chris Davison, called the deal an “important milestone”.

But the Global Automakers of Canada, an industry group, voiced concern.

The deal may be an “expression of goodwill” to ease pressure on the canola industry, but allowing thousands of Chinese EVs into Canada at a low tariff rate “risks creating significant market distortions” and could hurt companies that employ Canadians, the group said.

Welcoming Carney in the Great Hall of the People, Xi said China-Canada relations reached a turning point at their last meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in October.

“It can be said that our meeting last year opened a new chapter in turning China-Canada relations toward improvement,” Xi told the Canadian leader.

“The healthy and stable development of China-Canada relations serves the common interests of our two countries,” he said, adding he was “glad” to see discussions over the last few months to restore cooperation.

Ties between the two nations withered in 2018 over Canada’s arrest of the daughter of Huawei’s founder on a US warrant, and China’s retaliatory detention of two Canadians on espionage charges.

The two countries imposed tariffs on each other’s exports in the years that ensued, with China also accused of interfering in Canada’s elections.

But Carney has sought a pivot, and Beijing has also said it is willing to get relations back on “the right track”.

The Canadian leader, who on Thursday met with Premier Li Qiang, is also scheduled to hold talks with business leaders to discuss trade.

Canada, traditionally a staunch US ally, has been hit especially hard by Trump’s steep tariffs on steel, aluminium, vehicles and lumber.

Washington’s moves have prompted Canada to seek business elsewhere.

In October, Carney said Canada should double its non-US exports by 2035 to reduce reliance on the United States.

But the United States remains far and away its largest market, buying around 75 percent of Canadian goods in 2024, according to Canadian government statistics.

While Ottawa has stressed that China is Canada’s second-largest market, it lags far behind, buying less than four percent of Canadian exports in 2024.

A time-bound structural and policy rejig of the revenue system is imperative for restoring and sustaining Bangladesh's macroeconomic stability as insufficient domestic resources upend government plans and generate overall volatility.

To this end, a multi-stakeholder taskforce on revenue reform is likely to recommend that the government complete major tax-policy reforms in near and midterms within next five years, beginning under the current interim government and finishing under the upcoming elected one.

The 'National Taskforce on Tax Restructuring', formed in October last following the political regime change, in order to review the country's revenue framework, is scheduled to submit its report by January 31, 2026, in line with its mandate.

The taskforce will focus on structural adjustments and development of the overall tax framework to help Bangladesh achieve its fiscal goals.

Talking to The Financial Express, Dr Zaidi Sattar, who heads the taskforce, said the report would place strong emphasis on revenue-policy reforms aimed at removing longstanding bottlenecks to trade and investment.

According to a notification issued in October last, the taskforce will prepare recommendations for raisin the tax-to-GDP ratio to a desired level and suggest both short- and long-term policy measures for a business- and trade-friendly tax regime that supports overall economic growth.

"Although we were asked to provide short- and long-term recommendations, we believe most of the reforms need to be implemented within the medium term," says the economist.

Dr Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), thinks the current interim government may be able to implement some of the recommendations but the bulk of the reforms would need to be carried forward by the next elected government.

Referring to the ongoing process of bifurcation of the revenue administration, he says the government is creating two separate divisions but the committee's recommendations would focus solely on the tax-policy division.

Responding to a query on the tax-GDP target up to 2035 set in the medium and long-term revenue strategy (MLTRS) framed by the National Board of Revenue, Dr Sattar said Bangladesh must raise the ratio in line with its transition from the least-developed country (LDC) status.

The NBR targets to raise Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.5 by the fiscal year 2034-35, as part of its newly formulated 10-year revenue strategy.

"For a graduating LDC, the tax-to-GDP ratio should be upgraded to an average range of 15 to 20 per cent," he added.

The interim government formed the high-powered national taskforce to restructure the country's tax system with the aim of boosting revenue collection and raising the tax-GDP ratio to an acceptable level.

The other members of the panel include Dr. Sultan Hafiz Rahman, Professorial Fellow at BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Dr. Syed Mainul Ahsan, Professor Emeritus at Concordia University, Canada, Dr. Mohammad Zahid Hossain, Chairman of Bangladesh Krishi Bank, and Dr. Sajjad Zohir, Executive Director of the Economic Research Group (ERG).

In September last, the government dissolved the previous committee on NBR reform. The present taskforce was formed within a week of the dissolution of the committee.

A much-hyped 'social business' is getting institutionalized through newly introduced microcredit banks meant for empowering grassroots down-and-outs and firing up rural economy across Bangladesh.

In what officials tout as a landmark move for the country's financial landscape, the Advisory Council of the post-uprising interim government Thursday endorsed the Microfinance Bank Ordinance that allows individuals and organisations to set up such banks for commercial run in a newly defined way.

"This latest law is set to revolutionise the microcredit sector by allowing eligible micro-finance institutions (MFIs) to transition into full-fledged specialised banks," says one official.

With Chief Adviser of the Interim Government Professor Muhammad Yunus, the council meeting approved the ordinance broadly aimed at "deepening financial inclusion and providing the unbanked population with more sophisticated financial tools beyond simple credit".

The Nobel-laureate head of interim government is a longtime proponent of switching to 'social business' dedicated to advancing social-uplift goals instead of aggrandizing commercial interests.

Earlier, the Financial Institutions Division (FID) had drafted the law and consulted stakeholders before making the final version of the draft. After completion all the formalities, the draft law was placed before the cabinet meeting Thursday.

The law introduces a structured framework for evolution of the microfinance sector, which currently serves over 40 million clients. The new banks will operate primarily as "social businesses", officials said.

Each of the potential microfinance banks will have to have minimum Tk 5.0 billion as authorised capital while Tk 2.0 billion as paid-up capital.

Under provisions of the law, investors can recover their initial capital but profits beyond that must be reinvested into the bank to "further social goals rather than being distributed as traditional dividends".

The ordinance ensures that 60 per cent of the shares in the new banks would be held by the poor members (borrowers) themselves aimed at ensuring the empowerment of the down-and-outs at grassroots levels.

While MFIs currently operate under the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA), the newly formed microfinance banks will fall under direct regulation and supervision of the central bank (Bangladesh Bank).

Unlike traditional MFIs, these banks will be authorised to accept public deposits, offer insurance products and remittance services, access domestic and foreign grants and loans more easily, provide specialised credits for microenterprises and cottage industry.

A senior official says the microfinance-bank ordinance does not force all NGOs to become banks. "NGOs can choose to convert entirely or only transfer specific branches into the new banking structure, while their remaining operations continue under the MRA," he told The Financial Express.

Meanwhile, the approval for the ordinance comes amid debate within the development sector-some liking, some loathing.

The Credit and Development Forum (CDF) hails the move as a "landmark step" to eliminate high-interest borrowings from commercial banks. Some critics express concern about the potential "commercialization" of a sector built on social mobilisation.

However, the government maintains that the "Social Business" clause is a robust safeguard against profit-seeking motives, ensuring the mission remains focused on poverty alleviation.

By allowing these institutions to collect deposits, the government hopes to reduce the cost of capital for micro-loans, which has historically been high due to MFIs' reliance on commercial bank loans.

This shift is expected to provide a significant boost to the rural economy and small-scale entrepreneurs ahead of the upcoming fiscal year, the authorities say, on an upbeat note on the emergent financial derivation.

The lottery system for allocating shares to investors in initial public offerings has been reinstated in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Officials of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) say shares of companies coming to the market through IPOs will now be distributed through a lottery instead of proportional allotment.

Following reforms to the IPO framework, the “Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Public Offer of Equity Securities) Rules, 2025” was gazetted on Dec 30.

The revised rules were explained at a press conference at the BSEC office in Agargaon on Wednesday.

Under the amended framework, stock exchanges will give primary approval to IPO proposals, with the BSEC issuing final approval based on their recommendations.

Interested companies will be allowed to apply for listing on one or both of the country’s stock exchanges. To be listed on the main board, a company must have paid-up capital of at least Tk 300 million.

After an IPO, at least 10 percent of a company’s total shares must be floated in the stock market, while the minimum post-IPO paid-up capital must be Tk 500 million.

To enter the market under the new rules, a company will have to offer shares worth at least Tk 200 million.

The regulator may relax this condition in the case of fundamentally strong or multinational companies.

Following an IPO, a company’s paid-up capital will not be allowed to exceed Tk 1.25 billion. Funds raised through the IPO will have to be utilised within five years of completion of the process.

The lottery-based share allotment system was scrapped in 2024, when the BSEC introduced proportional allocation based on investor demand and deposited funds.

Under that system, investors were required to have a minimum investment of Tk 50,000 in the main market to apply for IPO shares, with allotment made proportionately among all applicants.

After the fall of the Awami League government following the July Uprising in 2024, several taskforces were formed to reform the financial sector.Financial planning tools

Structural reforms in the capital market are now under way based on recommendations from those taskforces.

At the briefing, BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam said the taskforce held discussions with all stakeholders while preparing the amendments.

“Priority has been given to areas where there was consensus and common recommendations,” he said.

“This will make implementation easier. The system will be market-driven. Many aspects of the previous framework were not market-driven.”

Oil slipped after four days of increases on Wednesday as Venezuela resumed exports and US crude and ‌product inventories rose, though fears of Iranian supply disruptions due to deadly civil unrest loomed over the market.

Brent futures were trading down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $65.27 a barrel at 0525 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $60.92 a barrel.

"Oil prices have already priced in quite a bit of geopolitical risk premium over the last few days in the face of rising turmoil in ‌Iran, compounded by drone attacks in the Black Sea," said Suvro Sarkar, an energy analyst at DBS Bank.

"Unless we see further escalation and chances of actual disruption in oil flows, the market could consolidate at these levels and wait for the next moves in a complex world order," he said. He added that large crude ‍and product builds in the US, reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Tuesday, may also be weighing on prices.

Crude stocks in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 5.23 million barrels in the week ended 9 January, the API reported, citing market sources.

Gasoline inventories ⁠rose by 8.23 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 4.34 million barrels from a week earlier.

Stockpile data from the ‍US Energy Information Administration will be released later on Wednesday. On Tuesday, a Reuters poll showed that US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last ‌week, while ‌gasoline and distillate inventories likely rose.

Also weighing on prices, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a US embargo as crude exports were also resuming, three sources said.

Two supertankers departed Venezuelan waters on Monday with about 1.8 million barrels each of crude in what may be the first shipments of a 50-million-barrel supply ⁠deal between Caracas and Washington ⁠to get exports moving again in the wake of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Mounting protests in Iran, however, have increased fears of supply disruptions from the fourth-largest OPEC producer. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Iranians to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without ‍specifying what that meant.

"Protests in Iran risk tightening global oil balances through near-term supply losses, but mainly through rising geopolitical risk premium," Citi analysts said in a note, raising their outlook for Brent over the next three months to $70 a barrel.

The Citi analysts noted that so far the protests have not spread to the main Iranian oil producing areas, which has ‍limited the effect on actual supply.

"Current risks are skewed toward political and logistical frictions rather than direct outages, keeping the impact on Iranian crude supply and export flows contained," they said.

The upward trend in remittances sent by Bangladesh expatriates has continued in January, with receiving over US $1.59 billion in 13 days of the month.

Bangladesh received $17.85 billion in inward remittances from July to January 13, 2026, in the current fiscal year, FY 2025-26. It was 14.7 billion in the same period of the previous FY2024-25, and saw a growth of 21.5 percent.

Blessings on the remittance, the gross forex reserves of Bangladesh cross $33 billion. As per the IMF standard BPM6, the forex reserves stood at $29 billion plus.

Arif Hossain Khan, Executive Director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, confirmed that the expatriates have sent $1.59 billion in the first 13 days of January 2026, which was $926 million in the same period of January 2025. It means the remittance earnings grew by 71.8 percent in this time.

The growth is attributed to several factors, including incentives offered for sending money through legal banking channels, increased encouragement for using the formal system and the active role of exchange houses.

In FY2025-26, Bangladesh received $2.47 billion in remittances in July, $2.42 billion in August, $2.68 billion in September, $2.56 billion in October, $2.88 billion in November, and $3.22 billion in December.

The data revealed that the average inward remittance flow was over $2.42 billion in the last six months. This robust flow of remittance influences Bangladeshi policymakers to discourage lending from the IMF with tough conditions.

Bangladesh’s Annual Development Programme (ADP) has recorded its lowest mid-year implementation rate in two decades, with only 17.54 per cent of allocations spent in the first six months of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), Tk 418.76 billion was spent between July and December, down from Tk 500.02 billion in the same period last year.

The rate is lower than the 17.97 per cent recorded in 2024-25 and well below the 22-24 per cent seen in the three preceding years.

December alone saw 5.8 per cent of allocations spent, slightly higher than 5.67 per cent in the same month last year.

The interim government has already slashed Tk 300 billion from the ADP, reducing the revised allocation to Tk 2 trillion.

The biggest cuts came in health and education, with health spending reduced by 73 per cent and secondary and higher education by 55 per cent.

Political upheaval following last year’s August change of government, curfews, and shutdowns slowed project execution.

Many contractors linked to the previous administration went into hiding, while the new government reviewed projects, leaving development activity stagnant.

At the end of 2024-25, ADP implementation stood at 67.85 per cent, down from 80.63 per cent the year before.

IMED data shows no fiscal year since 2004-05 recorded such a low rate.

The revised ADP was approved at Monday’s NEC meeting chaired by the chief advisor.

Officials noted that while disbursement is usually slow in the first half of the year, political disruption and budget cuts have pushed implementation to historic lows.

Bangladesh's equity investors have suffered steep losses over the long term, with each $100 invested in the country's stock market shrinking to just over $41 in dollar terms, reflecting a value erosion of nearly 59%, according to data from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).

The figures underscore the prolonged underperformance of Bangladesh's capital market compared to both global and frontier peers, raising fresh concerns about market structure, policy consistency and investor confidence.

According to MSCI's cumulative index performance data calculated up to December 2025, the MSCI Bangladesh Investable Market Index (IMI) stood at $50.39 in gross return terms, far behind the MSCI Frontier Markets IMI at $235.35 and the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) IMI at $428.49.

The divergence becomes even starker when net returns are considered. While the MSCI ACWI delivered net returns of $407.18 and frontier markets returned $218.07, MSCI Bangladesh's net return dropped to just $41.25. This means an investor who put $100 into Bangladesh equities over the long run lost nearly 59% of the original value in US dollar terms.

Market analysts say the poor performance reflects a combination of stagnant stock prices, weak liquidity and significant currency depreciation. Although some shares have shown resilience in local currency terms, the sharp fall of the taka against the US dollar has severely eroded dollar-based returns. As a result, even periods of relative price stability in taka have translated into losses for foreign investors once exchange rate effects are taken into account.

MSCI data also show that since November 2009, the MSCI Bangladesh Index has generated an average net return of minus 3.34%, compared to positive returns of 6.29% for frontier markets and 10.07% for the global index. This long-term underperformance has placed Bangladesh at the bottom among comparable markets tracked by global fund managers.

The MSCI Bangladesh IMI, which currently includes 36 companies and covers about 99% of the free-float adjusted market capitalisation, has a total market value of around $5.18 billion. The index is heavily concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, including Square Pharmaceuticals, Beximco Limited, BRAC Bank, Beximco Pharmaceuticals and Grameenphone. Market participants say this narrow investable universe limits diversification opportunities for global funds and increases vulnerability to stock-specific shocks.

A managing director of a brokerage firm said global fund managers largely rely on MSCI indices when allocating capital across countries. Persistent regulatory interventions, such as the imposition of floor prices, frequent policy changes and restrictions on price discovery, have reduced Bangladesh's attractiveness in global index frameworks. Both MSCI and FTSE Russell have maintained restrictions on Bangladesh-related indices due to concerns over market accessibility, liquidity and transparency, further dampening foreign interest.

Foreign investor activity has also weakened sharply in recent months. Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange show that monthly foreign turnover fell to just $5 million as of mid-December, compared to $30 million in October and $22 million in November. Earlier in 2025, foreign participation had shown brief signs of recovery, peaking at $41 million in May and $40 million in July, but those inflows proved short-lived as global investors steadily reduced exposure.

December witnessed notable selling pressure in several heavyweight stocks, leading to a net foreign outflow of around Tk118 crore. According to the monthly shareholding report, foreign investors sold shares worth roughly Tk120 crore during the month, while buying amounted to only about Tk2 crore. Most of the selling was concentrated in large-cap stocks that traditionally dominate foreign portfolios.

Currently, total foreign investment in the Dhaka bourse stands at around Tk13,000 crore, with only about 36% of listed companies having any foreign shareholding.

The MSCI Bangladesh Index, launched on 1 December 2009, is part of MSCI's broader factor-based analytical framework. MSCI Factor Classification Standards (FaCS) group equities by key drivers of risk and return such as value, size, momentum, quality, yield and volatility – factors widely supported by academic research and validated by MSCI. These factor groups are built using 16 underlying metrics, including book-to-price, earnings and dividend yields, leverage, long-term reversal, earnings variability and beta, derived from MSCI's Barra GEMLT global equity risk model to enable transparent and intuitive fund comparisons.

MSCI Inc, formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, is a US-based global financial services firm headquartered in New York. It provides widely used equity, fixed-income and real estate indices, multi-asset risk analytics, and ESG and climate solutions, including the MSCI World, Emerging Markets and All Country World indices.

Analysts said the MSCI index methodology is more fundamentally driven and therefore preferred by global fund managers, while the Dhaka Stock Exchange's index construction does not fully follow such internationally accepted standards.

As a result, the country's indices often fail to accurately reflect fundamentally strong stocks. This mismatch means local indices provide limited guidance on underlying corporate performance, making it difficult for investors to make informed and timely investment decisions based solely on domestic benchmarks.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has blamed merchant banks for the complete absence of initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past one and a half years, saying no IPO could be approved because no applications were submitted during the period.

Speaking at a press conference today (14 January), BSEC Director and Spokesperson Mohammad Abul Kalam said following the 2024 July uprising, merchant banks did not submit any IPO proposals, resulting in zero approvals.

Although the new commission had been working on revising the IPO rules after assuming office, the submission of IPO applications was never suspended, he added.

"Unfortunately, even under the previous rules, no company came forward to apply for an IPO after the mass uprising, despite having the opportunity to do so under the Public Issue Rules, 2015," he said. "As there were no applications, the question of verification or approval by the commission did not arise."

Placing responsibility squarely on merchant banks, the BSEC spokesperson said, "They could have submitted applications. Without applications, how can BSEC scrutinise or approve IPOs?"

He also noted that during the tenure of the previous commission, six IPO applications were under process, of which five were cancelled and one was withdrawn due to specific and serious deficiencies.

The press conference was organised at the BSEC multipurpose hall in Agargaon to explain various aspects of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Public Offer of Equity Securities) Rules, 2025.

Explaining the new IPO rules, Abul Kalam said the revised framework was finalised after extensive consultations with stakeholders to make the IPO process more transparent, market-driven and accountable.

Since assuming office, the new commission has been actively working to bring quality and fundamentally strong companies to the capital market, he added.

He said discussions with issuers and issue managers revealed several structural problems – particularly related to pricing – that had discouraged good companies from going public. The lack of transparency and market alignment in IPO pricing had created a confidence gap among potential issuers.

To address this, the commission formed a task force and undertook reforms, including measures to ensure greater transparency and rationality in the pricing process. "With these reforms, pricing will no longer be a major barrier for companies seeking listing," he said.

The new rules strictly prohibit cartelisation, artificial price bidding and placing bids beyond actual financial capacity. Six specific conditions have been imposed to prevent such practices, along with penal provisions for violations.

"These restrictions are meant to ensure that entities without real capacity to purchase cannot intentionally quote inflated prices to mislead the market," he said, defining cartelisation as secret collusion aimed at manipulating prices for unfair gains.

He also said the commission received 170 opinions on the draft rules from general investors, institutional investors, and other market participants, including 38 detailed analytical submissions.

Each comment was reviewed in detail during commission meetings, and issues with broad stakeholder consensus were incorporated into the final rules, he added.

He also pointed out that the 2006 IPO rules lacked clarity on critical issues such as merit-based evaluation, physical inspection, stock exchange recommendations, and issuers' freedom to choose a stock exchange.

These gaps have now been addressed. The new rules also clarify that issuers are not required to apply to both stock exchanges and may choose either one, he said.

The press conference also noted that earlier fixed-price IPOs were often negotiated rather than market-driven, creating moral hazard. Under revised rules, the commission has restored a true book-building system, tightening and improving transparency in indicative price discovery.

Issuers and issue managers must now justify prices using valuation methods and validate them through roadshows, securing at least 40% demand from eligible investors.

The event was attended by BSEC Executive Director Hasan Mahmud, Additional Director Lutf ul Kabir, and Joint Director and Public Relations Officer Shariful Alam.

The global unemployment rate is expected to hold steady in 2026, the United Nations said Wednesday, but cautioned the labour market's seeming stability belies a dire shortage of decent jobs.

The UN's International Labour Organization said the global economy and labour market appeared to have weathered recent economic shocks better than expected.

But the ILO warned that efforts to improve global job quality had stagnated, leaving hundreds of millions of workers wallowing in poverty, even as trade uncertainty risked cutting into workers wages.

The global unemployment rate was estimated at 4.9 percent last year and the year before, and is now projected to remain at a similar level until 2027, a report from the UN labour agency said.

That amounts to 186 million people out of work this year, it said.
"Global labour markets look stable, but that stability is quite fragile," Caroline Fredrickson, head of the ILO's research department, told reporters, cautioning that the "apparent calm masks deeper and unresolved problems".

At a time when US President Donald Trump has slapped towering tariffs on friends and foes alike, the report cautioned that "disruptions caused by trade uncertainty, combined with ongoing long-term transformations in global trade, could significantly affect labour market outcomes".

Going forward, the ILO said its modelling suggested that a moderate increase in trade policy uncertainty "may reduce returns to labour and, as a consequence, real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers across all sectors", especially in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and Europe.

The potential of trade to generate new employment opportunities was also being challenged by the ongoing disruptions, the report said, pointing out that 465 million jobs globally depended on foreign demand through exports of goods and services and related supply chains in 2024.

Another major concern highlighted by the ILO was the quality of jobs available.

"Resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality, and exclusion," ILO chief Gilbert Houngbo said in a statement.

Nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, Wednesday's report found.

At the same time, some 2.1 billion workers are expected to hold informal jobs this year, with limited access to social protection, labour rights and job security.

Young people remain particularly vulnerable, with unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds projected to reach 12.4 percent for 2025, with around 260 million young people not engaged in education, employment or training, ILO said.

It warned that artificial intelligence and automation could exacerbate challenges, particularly for educated young people in wealthier countries seeking their first high-skill jobs.

"While the full impact of AI on youth employment remains uncertain, its potential magnitude warrants close monitoring," the report said.

The ILO also highlighted "entrenched gender inequalities", pointing out that women still account for just two-fifths of global employment.

"Stable labour markets are not necessarily healthy," Fredrickson said, stressing the growing need for "domestic policy choices to strengthen decent work outcomes".

"Without decisive action, today's stability risks giving way to deeper inequalities."

High-end department store conglomerate Saks Global filed for bankruptcy protection late on Tuesday in one of the largest retail collapses since the pandemic, barely a year after a deal that brought Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman and Neiman Marcus under the same roof.

The move cast uncertainty over the future of US luxury fashion, though the retailer said early on Wednesday its stores would remain open for now after it finalized a $1.75 billion financing package and appointed a new chief executive.

Former CEO of Neiman Marcus department store chain Geoffroy van Raemdonck will replace Richard Baker, who was the architect of the acquisition strategy that saddled Saks Global with debt.

The company also appointed former Neiman Marcus executives Darcy Penick and Lana Todorovich as chief commercial officer and chief of global brand partnerships at Saks Global, respectively.

Saks Global estimated in documents filed in US Bankruptcy Court in Houston, Texas, that its assets and liabilities were in a range of $1 billion to $10 billion.

The court process is meant to give the luxury retailer room to negotiate a debt restructuring with creditors or find a new owner. Failing that, the company may be forced to shutter.

A retailer long loved by the rich and famous, from Gary Cooper to Grace Kelly, Saks fell on hard times after the COVID pandemic, as competition from online outlets rose, and brands started selling more items through their own stores.

The original Saks Fifth Avenue store, known for carrying exclusive brands like Chanel, Cucinelli and Burberry and its Christmas light shows, was opened by retail pioneer Andrew Saks in 1867.

Financing deal

The new financing deal would provide an immediate cash infusion of $1 billion through a debtor-in-possession loan from an investor group, Saks Global said. Reuters earlier reported the loan was led by Pentwater Capital Management in Naples, Florida, and Boston-based Bracebridge Capital.

Financing worth $240 million would be available through an asset-backed loan provided by the company's asset-based lenders, according to the company.

The luxury retailer will have access to $500 million of financing from the investor group once it successfully exits bankruptcy protection, expected later this year, Saks Global said.

It asked the court to delay the submission of the group's financial statements by 45 days to 13 March 2026.

Several luxury brands were among the unsecured creditors, led by Chanel, with about $136 million, and Gucci owner Kering with $60 million, the court filing said. The world's biggest luxury conglomerate, LVMH, was listed as an unsecured creditor at $26 million. In total, Saks Global estimated there were between 10,001 and 25,000 creditors.

Paris-based Kering, which also owns such brands as Yves Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, declined to comment.

Chanel, LVMH and Richemont did not respond to requests for comment.

In 2024, Baker masterminded the takeover of Neiman Marcus by Canada's Hudson's Bay Co, which had owned Saks since 2013, and later spun off the US luxury assets to create Saks Global, bringing together three names that have defined American high fashion for over a century.

That $2.7 billion deal was built on about $2 billion in debt financing and equity contributions from investors including Amazon, Salesforce and Authentic Brands, which were listed in the court filing as equity investors in Saks Global.

Neiman Marcus deal added debt

The Neiman Marcus deal was designed to create a luxury powerhouse, but it saddled Saks Global with debt at a time when global luxury sales were slowing.

Saks Global struggled last year to pay vendors, who began withholding inventory.

The thinly stocked shelves may have driven shoppers away to rivals like Bloomingdale's, which reported strong sales in 2025, compounding pressure on Saks Global.

"Rich people are still buying," Morningstar analyst David Swartz said last month, "just not so much at Saks."

Running out of cash, Saks Global last month sold the real estate of the Neiman Marcus Beverly Hills flagship store for an undisclosed amount. It had also been looking to sell a minority stake in exclusive department store Bergdorf Goodman to help cut debt.

On 30 December, it failed to make an interest payment of more than $100 million to bondholders.

Businesses feel unease and inflation frowns while some liquidity-squeezing moves have been in place for months.

The central bank, however, claims its contractionary monetary policy still looks accommodative in current context.

Officials and money-market analysts say the monetary policy is contractionary in terms of value due to higher policy rate but it is very much accommodative as far as the volume is concerned.

Apart from the regular liquidity-feeding instruments of the Bangladesh Bank (BB), the flow of subsidised credits or money injection through irregular arrangements keep rising on the market, which is contradictory to the spirit of contractionary monetary-policy stance taken for holding inflation in check.

As a matter of fact, the BB-guided tight monetary policy is not transmitting into the money market properly and not being able to contain the inflationary pressure at the expected level, which ultimately hurts common people through curtailing their purchasing power.

After the changeover in state power following the 2024 July-August mass uprising that toppled the Sheikh Hasina government, eminent economist Dr Ahsan H. Mansur took the central bank leadership and enhanced policy rate in quick successions by 150 basis points to 10 per cent from 8.50 per cent on October 22, 2024 to contain higher inflationary pressure as part of contractionary monetary policy.

The banking regulator still continues on the policy stance despite criticism from the business circles as the rate of inflation has yet to be brought down to the targeted level of 7.0 per cent.

Contractionary monetary policy is a central bank strategy to slow down an overheating economy and fight high inflation by reducing the money supply, thus making borrowing more expensive, and decreasing overall spending and investment.

But the reality here is different: the volume of quasi-fiscal activities by the BB through which commercial banks avail credits from the regulator at subsidised rates, ranging from 0.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent, is still quite large.

On the other hand, regular government borrowing from the central bank through using ways and means (maximum Tk 120 billion) and overdraft (maximum Tk 120 billion) goes on to operate some 119 accounts at 8.0 per cent and 9.0 per cent respectively, which is against the tight monetary policy stance.

Simultaneously, the central bank keeps injecting high-powered money in the form of assured repo (AR) against special bonds meant for settling accumulated arrears to independent power producers and fertiliser suppliers since February in 2024. Each month, the BB has provided AR facility worth over Tk 50 billion.

As such, the money supply to the market continues rising in recent months. According to the data of the BB, the volume of total money supply was Tk 21.68 trillion by end of July 2025 and the growth was 6.99 per cent from the corresponding period of last year.

Since then, an upturn has been observed in both volume and growth with the money supply rising to Tk 21.82 trillion (7.78-percent growth) and Tk 21.90 trillion (8.14-percent growth) last August and September respectively.

Former executive director (grade-1) of the Bangladesh Bank Dr Md. Ezazul Islam, who was leading the monetary policy department before his very recent joining Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) as its director-general, says there are two criteria through which monetary-policy stance can be judged whether it is contractionary or expansionary. One is quantity and another is price.

He says the central bank has long been pursuing monetary targeting for maintaining price stability but it did not work properly because of various factors, including instability in money demand and dominance of the fiscal policy.

"That's why the banking regulator switched to interest-rate targeting in place of monetary targeting in FY'24. Under this strategy, we raised the cost of funds to control the inflation," he told The Financial Express.

Since January last, the central banker mentions, the policy rate has become tight in real terms as the rate of inflation has been staying below the policy or repo rate.

Seeking anonymity, another BB official says the BB took some liquidity-squeezing steps to contain inflation by limiting the repo-backed borrowing facility to once a week from daily operations. The regulator also scrapped assured liquidity support (ALS) to limit money flow. Newspaper subscription service

"Despite the fact, the monetary policy is still accommodative due to growing fund flow through quasi-fiscal operations, government increased bank borrowing and other arrangements," the official told the FE about the balancing tricks.

The central banker mentions that the volume of quasi-fiscal activities through which banks avail funds at subsidised rates through refinancing schemes to support sectors like SMEs and agriculture stood at over Tk 330 billion.

On the other hand, the government recently revised its bank borrowing target to Tk 1.17 trillion from the initial target of Tk 1.04 trillion in the national budget for FY'26.

Assured repo or AR is another factor that is very contradictory to the spirit of tight monetary policy because the BB keeps injecting inflation-fueling high-powered money into the commercial banks for settling accumulated arrears to independent power producers and fertiliser suppliers, according to him.

The accumulated volume of AR-backed money rose to over Tk 550 billion now.

According to the data on reserve money, the growth of high-powered money had been positive since the policy rate was revised upward in October 2024 until September 2025 apart from last June's count (-0.11 per cent).

In fact, double-digit growth in reserve money was observed in three months (November, March and May last). It is another factor that indicates the monetary policy is still accommodative.

The current movement of the yield curve is another indication of the accommodative monetary policy because the yield on government securities normally goes up due to low fund supply in a tight monetary regime. But in Bangladesh, the yield is not moving up.

Professor of Economics at Independent University Bangladesh M. A. Taslim explains that as the money supply keeps increasing on the market in recent months, the monetary policy seems to be an accommodative one, not contractionary in nature.

The economist notes that the banking regulator has been continuing 'tight monetary policy stance' for months to contain higher inflationary burden. Despite the fact, the rate of inflation has yet to be brought down to the level expected.

On the other hand, the pressure from the business circles to cut down policy rate continues mounting to accelerate economic growth from prolonged sluggishness as the rate of poverty is on the upturn.

"If BB relaxes policy rate considering the economic growth, the inflation will not come down. I think BB is in double whammy. The situation is really tough," he says about a double bind the regulator is in.

According to the data with Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), headline inflation reached 8.49 per cent in just-passed December, up from 8.29 per cent in November and October's count of 8.17 per cent.

Founding Chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh Dr M Masrur Reaz says the central bank keeps the value tight but continues pumping in large amounts of money through various instruments on the other hand.

"It (monetary policy) is contractionary in terms of price but very much accommodative in regards to quantity," he says.

The economist mentions that there is a revenue shortfall of Tk 240 billion in the first five months of this fiscal year (FY'26). So, it is assumed that the figure could cross Tk 500 billion by the end of the fiscal year.

As there is no sign that the revenue mobilisation would increase significantly under the current macroeconomic context, he predicts, the government will have no other option as it discourages budgetary supports from development partners but to rely on domestic bank borrowing.

"It means the money supply is expected to be increasing further in the coming days."

Former lead economist of World Bank's Dhaka office Dr Zahid Hussain finds quantitative easing in the monetary policy as the balance sheet of BB is expanded despite record rise in policy rate.

He mentions positive growth in the movements of reserve money through which the regulator injects high-powered money to the market amid higher policy-rate regime.

"Some months it is increasing, some months it is dropping, but the positive growth continues. As far as volume is concerned, the monetary policy is still accommodative," he concludes.

Contacted, BB deputy governor Dr Md. Habibur Rahman, the lead author of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), said the yield curve typically shifts upward in a tight monetary-policy regime. But the situation is completely different in Bangladesh. "It means the monetary policy is not tight enough," he added.

China on Wednesday reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-US markets as producers looked to build global scale to fend off sustained pressure from the Trump administration.

A push by policymakers for Chinese firms to diversify beyond the world's top consumer market by shifting focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America paid dividends, cushioning the economy against US tariffs and intensifying trade, technology and geopolitical frictions since President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year.

"China's economy remains extraordinarily competitive," said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. "While this reflects gains in productivity and the rising technological sophistication of Chinese manufacturers, it is also due to weak domestic demand and attendant excess capacity."

Heading into 2026, the challenges for Beijing are aplenty, including deflecting concerns from an increasing number of global capitals about China's trade practices and overcapacity, as well as their overreliance on key Chinese products.

One of the key questions facing policymakers is for how long the $19 trillion economy can continue to counteract a property slump and sluggish domestic demand by shipping ever cheaper goods to other markets.

"Rising Chinese trade surpluses could raise tensions with trade partners, especially those reliant on manufacturing exports themselves," Neumann said.

The manufacturing juggernaut's full-year trade surplus came in at $1.189 trillion — a figure on par with the GDP of a top-20 economy globally like Saudi Arabia — customs data showed on Wednesday, having broken the trillion-dollar ceiling for the first time in November.

"With more diversified trading partners, (China's) ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced," Wang Jun, a vice minister at China's customs administration, said at a press briefing following the data release.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-biggest economy grew 6.6% in value terms year-on-year in December, compared with a 5.9% increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.0% increase.

Imports were up 5.7%, after a 1.9% bump the month earlier and also beat a forecast for a 0.9% uptick.

"Strong export growth helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"Combined with the booming stock market and stable US-China relations, the government is likely to keep the macro policy stance unchanged at least in Q1."

Exports up as China set to gain more global share

China's yuan held steady following the upbeat data even as equity investors welcomed the forecast-beating numbers. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index and blue-chip CSI300 index both rose more than 1% in morning deals.

The Asian powerhouse economy's monthly trade surpluses exceeded $100 billion seven times last year, partially underpinned by a weakened yuan, up from just once in 2024, underscoring that Trump's actions have barely dented China's broader trade with the wider world even if he has curbed US-bound shipments.

Exports to the US slumped 20% in dollar terms in 2025, while imports from the world's top economy were down 14.6%. Chinese factories managed to make inroads in other markets, with exports to Africa jumping 25.8% and those to the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations up 13.4%. EU-bound shipments grew 8.4%.

China's rare-earth exports in 2025 surged to their highest level since at least 2014, even as Beijing began curbing shipments of several medium to heavy elements from April — a move analysts saw as an effort to showcase its leverage over Washington while negotiators wrangled over soybean purchases, a potential Boeing aircraft deal and the fate of TikTok's US operations.

The world's top agricultural importer purchased a record volume of soybeans in 2025, buoyed by a sharp increase in shipments from South America, with Chinese buyers holding off from US crops for much of the year as trade tensions lingered.

Trump factor still looms large

Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics.

Beijing, however, has shown signs of recognising it must moderate its industrial largesse if it is to sustain its success, and address the image problem outsized exports are causing.

Last week, it scrapped subsidy-like export tax rebates for its solar industry, a long-standing point of friction with EU states.

The Trump challenge to China is not going away in a hurry either, analysts note, even as the US Supreme Court could rule against the president's tariff hikes later on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Trump said he thinks China can open its markets to American goods, after threatening a day earlier to slap a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran, risking reopening old wounds with Beijing, Tehran's biggest trading partner.

"Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran underscores the potential for renewed trade tensions between the US and China," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

Zant Accessories Limited has signed a land lease agreement with the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA) to produce polyurethane and polyethylene foam at the National Special Economic Zone (NSEZ).

The agreement was signed today (14 January) at the BEZA office, said a press release.

Under the agreement, the company will set up an export-oriented industrial unit on five acres of land at the NSEZ, with an investment of around Tk80 crore. Zant Accessories plans to start commercial production in May 2027.

In the press release, BEZA said the proposed factory would use comparatively less water and electricity and would not require gas. The authority said the project would be export-oriented and in line with environment-friendly industrial development.

Besides polyurethane and polyethylene foam, the factory will also produce recycled foam, mattresses, pillows, comforters and shoe insoles. These products are mainly used in the furniture, home textile, footwear, automobile and packaging industries and are intended for export.

About 90% of the raw materials required for production will be imported from China, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia, according to the company. Zant Accessories Limited currently operates another factory at the Karnaphuli Export Processing Zone.

Saleh Ahmed, executive member (investment development) of BEZA, said the investment by Zant Accessories Limited at the NSEZ was a positive example of export-oriented industrial growth. "Such projects could encourage more local and foreign investors to invest in the zone," he said.

Zant Accessories Limited said the project would focus on sustainable production, environmental protection and skill development. The company also said it expects the project to contribute to foreign exchange earnings by maintaining international production standards.

The land lease agreement was signed on behalf of BEZA by Executive Member (Investment Development) Saleh Ahmed, while Zant Accessories Limited was represented by its Chairman Md Tofazzal Hossain.

According to BEZA, around 17 industrial units are currently operating at the NSEZ, while another 24 units are under construction. The zone is being developed with industrial facilities alongside urban services, infrastructure and sustainable utility systems.

Most of the gold currently in the country, as well as new imports, is coming through illegal channels, National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said today (14 January).

The NBR would provide necessary support to bring discipline to the sector, he said while speaking at the NBR's "Meet the Business" event in Agargaon, Dhaka.

"If formal requests are made to the Bangladesh Bank and the Ministry of Commerce for legal gold imports, NBR will provide the required support," he added.

The NBR chairman also highlighted that some officials of the board have allegedly been involved in illegal gold import activities, and measures have already been taken against certain individuals.

During the event, leaders of the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus), including its President Enamul Haque Khan, called for simplifying gold imports, issuing licenses to genuine traders, reducing VAT and other taxes, and making the tax payment process easier.

Traders noted that while gold is entering the country illegally, they want to operate without allegations or complications. They argued that simplifying the import process would reduce illegal trade, improve transparency, and allow them to conduct business legally under the VAT and tax system. To this end, Bajus presented several demands, including easier import procedures.

A Bajus leader added that in the past, the government issued 18 gold import licenses, but at least 10 went to individuals who were not genuine traders.

Some license holders had no connection to the jewellery business, while others were even cricketers, leaving real traders excluded, he said.

"Smugglers obtain licenses not to conduct business but to avoid legal hassles," the Bajus leader said, calling for licenses to be granted only to genuine traders to promote legal imports.

Traders also pointed out that due to complicated import procedures, gold prices in the domestic market are at least Tk30,000 per kilogram higher than in neighbouring countries such as India, Singapore, or Dubai, forcing many to procure gold through illegal channels.

The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.6% for the current fiscal 2025-26 from its October forecast of 4.8%, but hoped reduced political uncertainty to drive next year's growth to 6.1%.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday (13 January), the global lender stated that the country's growth is expected to rebound from an estimated 3.7% growth in FY25, with private consumption strengthening alongside easing inflationary pressures.

It also noted, "Reduced political uncertainty related to the general election in early 2026 and the expected implementation of structural reforms by a new government are projected to support stronger industrial activity in FY2026/27."

"These factors are also anticipated to lead to faster public spending and investment growth than previously projected", read the report.

Moreover, the World Bank emphasized that political transitions following the scheduled elections in Bangladesh this year could improve economic stability, with better predictability in growth-enhancing reform efforts.

Notably, the World Bank's revised outlook broadly aligns with other multilateral agencies. The United Nations earlier projected Bangladesh's economy to grow 4.6% in FY26, rising to 5.4% in FY27.

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank, in its September 2025 outlook, forecast 5% growth in FY26, while the International Monetary Fund estimated growth at 4.9% in FY26 and 5.7% in FY27.

However, the interim government set a 5.5% GDP growth target for FY26, exceeding the projections made by international agencies.

Growth in South Asia to slow

After an estimated strong 7.1% growth in 2025, South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 6.2% in 2026, mainly reflecting the impact of increased US import tariffs on India's export growth.

However, the report stated that growth in the region is then set to increase to 6.5% in 2027, as the effects of political uncertainty in several economies dissipate.

The regional outlook report stated that, "Downside risks to the regional outlook include further increases in trade restrictions and global trade policy uncertainty, tighter-than-expected financial conditions amid heightened financial vulnerabilities, increased social unrest, and more frequent or intense disasters due to natural hazards."

"However, there are multiple upside risks, including possible progress in bilateral trade negotiations, faster technology-led investment growth, and the potential benefits from more resilient political environments after elections in several economies."

Meanwhile, global economic growth projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, despite persistent trade and policy uncertainty.

China said Wednesday trade volumes reached a record last year, as global demand for Chinese goods held firm despite a slump in exports to the US after Donald Trump raised tariffs.

Trade in 2025 "surpassed 45 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) for the first time, setting a new historical high," vice customs minister Wang Jun told a press conference in Beijing.

Exports, which have traditionally been the main driver of the world's second-largest economy, rose 6.1 percent in 2025 from the previous year.

Imports were up 0.5 percent, customs data showed.

"Some country has politicised trade issues and limited high tech exports to China, if they hadn't, we would have imported more," Wang said, in a veiled reference to the Trump's tariffs.

Looking ahead to 2026, China's market will "open more" and "still be an opportunity for the world" he added.