Bangladesh reduced poverty significantly between 2010 and 2022, lifting 34 million people out of poverty while improving living standards and access to essential services such as electricity, education, and sanitation, but since 2016, the pace of poverty reduction has slowed and economic growth has become less inclusive, says a new World Bank report launched Tuesday.

The report, Bangladesh Poverty and Equity Assessment 2025, finds that extreme poverty fell from 12.2% to 5.6% and moderate poverty dropped from 37.1% to 18.7% from 2010 to 2022. Yet, nearly 62 million people – about one-third of the population – remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty if faced with an illness, natural disaster, or other unexpected shock.

According to the report, after 2016, Bangladesh's economic growth pattern shifted, becoming less inclusive, and income inequality rose as income growth benefited wealthier families more. Rural areas led poverty reduction with agriculture as a key driver. But the rate of poverty reduction was much slower in urban areas. By 2022, one in four poor Bangladeshis lived in a city.

"For years, Bangladesh has been known for its success in poverty reduction. But with a changing global context, severe climate vulnerabilities, and a slower rate of job creation, labour income has weakened," said Jean Pesme, World Bank Division director for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

"A business-as-usual approach will not accelerate poverty reduction. The fastest path to reducing poverty and ensuring the dignity of people is through job creation, particularly for youth, women, and vulnerable populations. A pro-poor, climate-resilient, and job-centric strategy will be essential to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth."

Here's what the report says.

Infograph: Ashrafun Naher Ananna/TBS Creative
Infograph: Ashrafun Naher Ananna/TBS Creative

Poverty fell – but not fast enough

Between 2010 and 2022, Bangladesh cut extreme poverty by more than half. Moderate poverty also dropped sharply, lifting nearly 9 million and 25 million Bangladeshi people out of extreme and moderate poverty, respectively.

But after 2016, the pace of improvement slowed dramatically. Economic growth continued at an impressive rate – averaging 6.6% a year – yet it lifted fewer people out of poverty than in previous years.
One in four households now below poverty line, survey finds

The report finds that consumption growth between 2010 and 2016 was pro-poor, favouring those in the bottom 40% of the consumption distribution, although gains tilted towards wealthier households in the latter half of the period (2016 to 2022).

Also, poverty continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate (1.8 percentage points annually between 2010 and 2016, then 1.3 points between 2016 and 2022). By 2022, less than one in five Bangladeshis, or 31 million people, lived in poverty, and only 6% (9.3 million people) remained in extreme poverty.

One statistic tells the story: For every 1% of GDP growth, Bangladesh reduced poverty by just 0.9%, far lower than the South Asian average of 1.5%. In other words, growth was happening, but the benefits weren't reaching the poorest.

Millions still living on the edge

Despite the gains, vulnerability remains widespread. Over one-third of 170 million Bangladeshis are at risk of slipping back into poverty, the WB report warns.

By 2025, an estimated 36 million people are still poor, while many more hover just above the poverty line – highly exposed to inflation, job losses, illness, or climate shocks.

A rural-urban divide emerges

The pattern of poverty reduction has also shifted.

After 2016, rural Bangladesh pulled ahead, thanks largely to a rebound in agriculture. Rural inequality even dipped slightly.

According to the report, poverty became more urbanised due to rapid poverty reduction in rural areas and accelerated urbanisation. Between 2016 and 2022, poverty declined at a faster pace in rural areas (-8.5 percentage points) than in urban areas (-4.6 percentage points). This was because rural consumption growth was larger and more pro-poor.

From 2016 to 2022, renewed agricultural growth, weaker industry, and stronger job creation highlighted sharp urban-rural contrasts in poverty reduction. Agriculture experienced an annual growth-rate increase of 1.4 percentage points during this period, while industry and services slowed by 1.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

This shift underscored agriculture's continued importance in the labour market – representing 45.3% of total employment in 2022 and nearly 80% of net employment during this period. Thus, agricultural households accounted for half of the decline in rural poverty. This marks a sharp reversal from the period 2010 to 2016, when agricultural households contributed only 30% to poverty reduction, while industry and services together explained the largest share (58%). In contrast, from 2016 to 2022, the contribution of industry and services fell to 46%, with services alone decreasing by five percentage points.

The stronger role of agriculture was likely driven by a combination of increased productivity and profitability in the farm sector. Consequently, rural employment grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%, equivalent to 1.4 million new jobs per year, compared to 0.4 million in 2010-2016. This rise was driven by new job opportunities that enabled higher female participation.

Also, the Gini coefficient increased from 33.1 to 34.5 in urban areas, while it decreased from 29.2 to 28.2 in rural areas. Not only did the gap in the poverty rate between urban and rural areas narrow (from 17.2 to 5.8 percentage points), but urbanization also progressed. As a result, the share of the urban poor increased. By 2022, one in four poor Bangladeshis lived in urban areas. Nevertheless, the poverty rate in rural areas is still six percentage points higher than in urban areas (20.5% compared to 14.7%).

The report reveals that urban Bangladesh, once the engine of progress, slowed down as factory jobs didn't grow as expected, and earnings stagnated for many city households. Income inequality rose sharply in towns and cities, driven by differences in wages, remittances, and asset ownership.

Eastern-Western poverty gap shrinks

The gap in poverty rates between the eastern and western regions closed, as divisions with higher rates reduced poverty fastest after 2016. After lagging during the period 2010-2016, the West caught up with the East due to larger and more pro-poor consumption growth.

Although the poverty rate in the eastern and western regions converged to around 18% in 2022, some disparities persist across divisions. For example, Rangpur and Barisal present poverty rates higher than the national average (around 26%), while Khulna, Chittagong, Rajshahi, and Sylhet have lower rates (around 16%). Dhaka is aligned with the national average (around 20%).

Social protection is expanding – but poorly targeted

Bangladesh now spends more on safety nets and social support than ever before. But the report says the systems are riddled with weaknesses.

Too many benefits go to the wrong people. Subsidies often favour the better-off.

Those who need help the most – the poorest, informal workers, the elderly poor – frequently get left out.

Improving targeting, the report argues, could dramatically increase the impact of existing spending.

The quality gap: Services expanded, but not enough

Bangladesh's rapid improvements in access to electricity, sanitation, and education lifted 34 million people out of multidimensional poverty.

But the report points out a persistent problem: poor quality. Power supply is still unreliable. Students are going to school but learning too little. Transport infrastructure has expanded, but delays and poor connectivity continue to hold back growth.

These gaps limit how much families and businesses can benefit from improved services.

Recent trends signal new challenges for Bangladesh

Amid ongoing global and domestic instability, economic growth has slowed, leading to a projected rise in poverty in the short term. Since 2023, macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated, with 2025 marking a downturn almost comparable to the Covid-19 pandemic period.

The report says the welfare of Bangladeshi households has been adversely affected, primarily through labour market channels: employment has declined, particularly among women and youth, and real labour incomes have fallen for less-skilled workers. These dynamics have been compounded by a sharp shift in relative prices, as inflation has significantly outpaced wage growth for the poorest, with price increases in 2025 estimated to be more than double those observed during the pandemic.

Nevertheless, the negative effects have been partially cushioned by a continued flow of international remittances and the maintenance of social assistance programs. Overall, nearly 2 million additional vulnerable individuals are estimated to have fallen into poverty in 2025, alongside a widening of inequality – whether measured by the Gini coefficient or the prosperity gap.

A chance to reset the path

Despite the slowdown, the assessment report says Bangladesh still has a "historic opportunity" to reignite poverty reduction, but it requires a course correction.

Among the priorities are:

Linking villages and cities through better transport and logistics, creating more productive urban jobs, especially in manufacturing and services, revitalising agriculture with value chains that benefit small farmers and building shock-responsive social protection for a more volatile world.

With inflation, climate change, and global economic uncertainty posing fresh pressures, the report warns that the next decade will demand a more inclusive and resilient model of growth.

State-owned Janata Bank has issued an auction notice to sell the factories, land and corporate headquarters of Beximco Limited as it seeks to recover more than Tk1,322 crore in defaulted loans.

The development comes even as the government pursues an international leasing arrangement to revive the troubled conglomerate's textile operations.

On 25 November, Janata Bank published advertisements across multiple newspapers announcing the sale of Beximco's mortgaged assets to settle the outstanding loans, including accrued interest calculated up to 31 October. Interested bidders have been asked to submit their offers by 10 December.

At the same time, the bank also called an auction for the assets of Assess Fashions Limited, which owes Tk1,133 crore in default loans as of 31 October. The company is also referred to as Esses Fashions Limited and is part of the Beximco Group.

According to Janata Bank's auction notice, the Beximco assets up for sale include 3,527 decimals of land and factory buildings in Gazipur, 146.65 decimals in Ashulia and 440 decimals in Narayanganj. The bank has also moved to auction the company's 15-storey head office, BEL Tower, located in Dhaka's Dhanmondi.

Janata Bank moves to auction 6 Beximco factories despite govt's revival plan

This follows an earlier auction notice published on 21 November for assets belonging to three other Beximco Group entities: International Knitwear & Apparel Limited's Unit-1 and Unit-2 valued at Tk1,754.7 crore, Urban Fashions valued at Tk724.26 crore and Apollo Apparels worth Tk816.4 crore.

Revival, Ecomilli express shock

The sudden auction move comes at a time when two international entities – Japan-Bangladesh sustainability venture "Revival" and US-based expatriate organisation "Ecomilli" – are collaborating with the government to reopen the Beximco's factories.

The two firms said in a statement that Beximco's factories were forced to shut down due to a prolonged debt crisis, and they stepped forward with a recovery plan in hopes of reviving operations through a lease agreement.

Revival and Ecomilli, through Benchmark PR, expressed shock at Janata Bank's abrupt decision to sell the immovable assets and machinery while discussions regarding the lease were still underway.

They said they had already held extensive meetings with surrounding communities, workers' families, small businesses, schools, and local shop owners – groups whose livelihoods depend heavily on the factories – and that all stakeholders were anticipating an imminent reopening.

The organisations said the decision to auction off national industrial assets should be taken with caution, transparency, and consultation with experts, workers, and shareholders. They urged Janata Bank to reconsider its move, warning that the auction could undermine a rare opportunity for foreign investment led by skilled expatriate Bangladeshis.

They said the step could also discourage future international investors who are showing renewed interest in Bangladesh's textile and apparel sector.

Repeated attempts by The Business Standard to reach Janata Bank's Managing Director and CEO Md Mazibur Rahman for comments were unsuccessful, as he did not respond to phone calls or WhatsApp messages.

Beximco's Managing Director Osman Kaiser Chowdhury also did not respond.

Govt for reopening factories

Meanwhile, government agencies, including the labour ministry, have been actively negotiating to reopen Beximco's internationally accredited textile units in order to safeguard thousands of jobs and prevent significant losses in export earnings.

Multiple meetings have been held involving the Finance Division, Bangladesh Bank, Janata Bank, and other lenders to facilitate the process.

In May, Japan's Revival Project Limited submitted an expression of interest (EOI) to lease the factories, backed by a letter of comfort from Beximco. The labour ministry convened its first meeting on 22 July regarding the reopening, followed by several others.

An 11-member advisory committee chaired by Labour and Employment Adviser Brigadier General (retd) M Sakhawat Hossain supported the Revival proposal, as did another high-level five-member advisory panel formed to accelerate business and industrial activities.

The Bangladesh Bank reportedly signalled support for a leasing arrangement, and Revival subsequently prepared investment plans, including an initial injection of $20 million in working capital and a long-term investment target of up to $100 million. Ecomilli is expected to finance the plan.

Beximco has told authorities that several foreign buyers are waiting for production to resume.

Janata Bank board opts for auction

A draft tripartite agreement prepared on 8 October outlined that Beximco's factories would be operated by Revival, which would receive a 1.5%-2.5% commission from export earnings.

All remaining proceeds, after operational expenses, would go toward repaying Janata Bank and other lenders. Beximco would not receive direct funds under the arrangement.

Beximco Limited projected that its textile units could generate a net profit of Tk380 crore by December 2026 if operations resumed in October this year, according to its response to a Dhaka Stock Exchange query.

Janata Bank's board approval for the agreement was scheduled for 18 November, later postponed to 20 November.

But, instead of approving the leasing proposal, the board opted to move towards auctioning the factories and mortgaged assets – an abrupt shift that has raised concerns among all parties involved in the revival effort.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) extended its rally for the second consecutive session today (24 November), with renewed investor confidence and expectations of fresh government-backed support lifting the market from a prolonged oversold phase.

The benchmark DSEX index jumped 109 points to close at 5,025, while the blue-chip DS30 rose 43 points to 1,926. The Shariah-compliant DSES index gained 25 points to finish at 1,053.

Turnover climbed to Tk636 crore – a 65% increase from Tk386 crore in the previous session – reflecting a sharp rise in investor participation. Of the 391 traded companies, 359 advanced, 22 declined and 10 remained unchanged, signalling broad-based gains across the market.

Analysts noted that positive market breadth indicated renewed confidence among both institutional and retail investors.

Investor sentiment received a boost after the government announced a Tk1,000 crore allocation to the state-owned Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) to help stabilise the market.

ICB Chairman Prof Abu Ahmed told The Business Standard that a new BO account had been opened to purchase shares using the fund. "After 2pm today [yesterday], some shares were bought through this account," he said.

He added that a progress report on the utilisation of the investment would be submitted to the government after three months.

The loan has been provided at 5% interest with a 10-year tenure and is restricted solely to share purchases. Prof Abu Ahmed also noted that ICB had originally sought Tk13,000 crore in government support to help stabilise the capital market.

The market had become significantly oversold following weeks of consecutive price declines. Many fundamentally strong stocks are now trading at undervalued prices, prompting cautious yet opportunity-seeking investors to take new positions in anticipation of future gains.

Market insiders noted that institutional investors have also become more active, further supporting the market's recovery. Analysts said that expectations regarding the upcoming national elections may also positively influence investor sentiment, as political clarity often encourages stronger market participation.

Several analysts, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted, "The closer the election gets, the more investors are likely to return to the market. Once political stability returns, the market is expected to gradually recover and perform better."

Analysts further highlighted that the current earning yield of equities is significantly higher than treasury bills and bonds, creating a favourable incentive for investors to shift funds into equities in the coming weeks.

Market observers noted that the recent downturn was not driven by political uncertainty alone. The introduction of new margin loan regulations forced many investors into mandatory sell-offs, intensifying price declines and adding pressure to the broader market.

Sector performance and top movers

Among the top gainers, Peoples Leasing rose 10%, followed by IFIC Bank and Ring Shine Textiles, both up 10%. On the losing side, Monospool Bangladesh fell 5.08%, Bangladesh Welding dropped 3.12% and Western Marine Shipyard declined 2.27%.

All major large-cap sectors closed higher. Non-bank financial institutions posted the highest gain at 4.08%, followed by Engineering (2.29%), Food & Allied (2.15%), Banking (2.00%), Pharmaceuticals (1.76%), Fuel & Power (1.71%) and Telecommunications (1.00%).

Block trades accounted for 5% of turnover, with Simtex Industries, up 9.9%, being the most traded stock, generating Tk20 crore.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange mirrored the upbeat mood, with the CSCX index rising 132 points to 8,564 and the CASPI gaining 234 points to close at 13,911.

The government has painted a relatively stable picture of the economy in a report to the United Nations, saying early signs of recovery appeared in the middle of this year.

Some economists, however, remain critical of key macro indicators and say that the outlook is far from assured.

"The complacent views shown in the report are not consistent with the facts," said Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank Dhaka office.

He said that of the three major macroeconomic factors, foreign exchange, inflation and financial distress, only foreign exchange shows improvement. Inflation and financial distress continue to pose serious concerns.

Submitted early this month to the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UN-CDP), the annual report itself acknowledged several challenges highlighted by economists.

Even so, it argued that the macroeconomic performance of Bangladesh is "unique" compared to countries where regime change occurred through violent overthrow or mass uprising.

Drawing comparisons with Sri Lanka and Indonesia, the finance ministry report claimed that several economic indicators in those countries failed to recover after government changeovers, unlike the development trajectory of Bangladesh.

It said those economies saw sharp declines in output and foreign direct investment, along with rising inflation, while Bangladesh maintained positive output and FDI growth and reported declining inflation.

"As a result, Bangladesh could avoid any significant development setbacks," said the report, continuing the narrative of the past four years ahead of the country's scheduled graduation from the least developed country club next year.

Indonesia saw its poverty rate jump from around 15 percent to 33 percent within a year after the changeover, while around 26 percent of the population in Sri Lanka lived in poverty in 2023, a year after the violent fall of the regime, according to the report.

In support of the claim of "early signs of recovery" by mid-2025, the report cited higher GDP growth, easing inflation, a stabilised exchange rate and improvements in foreign exchange reserves and the balance of payments.

The government attributed these gains to measures such as the introduction of a pegged exchange rate system, market-based interest rates, reduced subsidies and rationalised public expenditure. A temporary freeze on non-essential spending also created fiscal space for priority sectors, including health, agriculture and social protection.

The report highlighted a 12.5 percent rise in the Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index (DSEX) in July as evidence of growing investor confidence. It ranked third among major global market performers that month. The index gained 605 points to close at 5,443, the highest level in nine and a half months.

However, Hussain dismissed the stock market surge as short-lived.

"The rising trend of stock market indicators was temporary, and the surge in the DSEX index did not last long," said the economist. "So, it cannot be said that investor confidence is restored only with this indicator. The daily trading at the Dhaka Stock Exchange is also showing a downward trend."

Growth figures also challenge the somewhat upbeat narrative of the report.

Real GDP growth has declined since FY22, dropping from 7.1 percent to a provisional 3.97 percent in FY25.

After a strong rebound in FY21 to FY22 driven by manufacturing and exports, growth slowed due to rising inflation, foreign exchange shortages and weaker private investment, the report mentioned.

It said the sharper decline reflects continued macroeconomic pressures, subdued demand and slower external trade, indicating a period of adjustment after years of expansion.

According to the report, quarterly data showed modest gains. In the first quarter of FY25, agricultural output grew by only 0.76 percent, while industry and services expanded by 2.44 percent and 2.41 percent.

Bangladesh is still struggling to manage the high inflationary pressure following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Although the general rate eased from 9.05 percent in May 2025 to 8.48 percent in June this year, it hovered around 8 percent in subsequent months.

"Although the inflation is not in double digits now, it is still high in Bangladesh," said Hussain.

Meanwhile, employment also offers little comfort.

Unemployment rose to 3.66 percent in 2024 from 3.35 percent in 2023. Youth unemployment increased to 8.07 percent and the share of NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) youth climbed to 20.3 percent. Educated joblessness also increased to 13.5 percent from 13.1 percent.

Hussain said poverty is growing due to stagnant employment and declining welfare conditions.

The report said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2023 categorised Bangladesh as a "low risk" country in terms of debt distress, but a recent staff mission indicated the risk may be elevated to "medium" due to evolving domestic conditions.

Moreover, the report said energy shortages continue to hamper the industry. The government is also struggling to revive the banking sector, weighed down by a massive volume of non-performing loans (NPLs).

Hussain said the central bank has not published updated NPL data since March this year, and the level remains high. Private sector credit growth is weakening due to monetary tightening.

Selim Raihan, an economics professor at Dhaka University, said inflation has fallen sharply in many countries but remains elevated in Bangladesh.

He also said investor confidence has not improved, pointing to one of the lowest private sector credit growth rates in the region.

"There are many uncertainties in the economy, such as politics, employment and economics. The government could have become more critical in portraying the country's economy in the annual report to show the real picture. But it opted for a rosy picture," he commented.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said it is true that the economy was in a crisis situation and that some indicators, such as foreign exchange reserves, are now improving.

"However, it is still a far cry to say the economy is doing well, even if some bounce back has taken place. Employment has decreased, the poverty rate is rising, private sector credit growth is falling, debt obligations are increasing, and energy imports are growing to meet demand."

"We are not in a comfort zone now," said Reaz.

Bangladesh Bank has not published the banking sector's classified loan data for the April-June quarter even five months after it ended, leaving analysts without a clear picture of the sector's condition.

The central bank usually releases non-performing loan (NPL) figures within a month of each quarter's end. This year, however, publication has been consistently delayed. The January-March data came out only in June, and no date has been set for the second-quarter release even though banks have already begun publishing their third quarter figures.

The lack of updated information has added to uncertainty among stakeholders assessing the scale of loan stress in the sector. BB has not offered a clear explanation for the delay.

When asked, Arefin Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of the central bank, told The Daily Star last week that the figures were pending because Governor Ahsan H Mansur had been abroad. "But he has now returned, and it is expected that the data will be published soon," he said.

According to central bank officials, the regulator collects quarterly data from commercial banks and typically needs about a month to compile the dataset. After preparation, it is forwarded to various departments following the governor's approval.

"Based on the classified loan data, multiple reports are produced, helping stakeholders understand the banking industry," one official said.

DELAY COMES AMID RISING NPLs

The delay comes at a time when non-performing loans have been hitting record highs. In March, NPLs reached a record Tk 4,20,335 crore -- 24.13 percent of total outstanding loans of Tk 17.42 lakh crore -- according to BB data. At the end of 2024, bad loans stood at Tk 3,45,765 crore, meaning Tk 74,570 crore was added in just three months.

Years of loan irregularities, scams and mismanagement during the previous Awami League government pushed NPLs to these levels, according to officials. After the political changeover in 2024, the hidden loans started to come to light.

Unofficial estimates suggest bad loans may have exceeded Tk 6 lakh crore by June, with several banks now reporting that more than half their loan books are in default.

BB has asked banks to intensify recovery and rescheduling efforts to contain the surge.

Governor Mansur has publicly stated on multiple occasions that actual bad loans exceed 30 percent of the banking sector's loan stock.

Multiple banks have reported steep rises in defaults. AB Bank's NPLs, for instance, have climbed to nearly 84 percent of its total loans. As of September, the bank had Tk 35,982 crore in outstanding loans, of which Tk 30,138 crore were classified as bad. The bank had Tk 10,115 crore in bad loans in September 2024. Union Bank alone accounted for Tk 25,303 crore of the country's Tk 4,20,335 crore in bad loans as of March 2024.

'WHY THE SECRECY?'

Analysts say the delay undermines transparency at a moment when confidence in the banking sector is fragile.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development and a former BB chief economist, said withholding information is a trait of the ousted government.

"This should not be the case under the current government. People must be allowed to know the real facts," he said.

He questioned why BB, which introduced the practice of publishing NPL data quarterly, is now holding it back. When information is not published in a timely manner, it creates confusion among stakeholders and leads to misconceptions.

"Everyone knows NPLs have increased significantly, so why this secrecy? We have heard they have now reached Tk 6.5 lakh crore. Whatever the actual figure is, it should be disclosed. Without timely data, it is not possible to formulate the right policies," he stated.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, echoed the concern. "Getting data on time has long been a challenge in Bangladesh," she said. "We need classified loan information for proper analysis. If data is delayed, it loses relevance."

Bitcoin dropped to a seven-month low on Friday, closing in on the $80,000 level below which some analysts say much heavier losses are likely for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin fell to $80,553, and ether hit a four-month low, as cryptocurrencies led a broad flight from riskier assets, spurred by investor worries over lofty tech valuations and uncertainty over near-term US interest rate cuts.

Cryptocurrencies are often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite and their slide highlights how fragile the mood in markets has turned in recent days, with high-flying artificial intelligence stocks tumbling and volatility spiking.

Bitcoin is down 12 percent for the week. Its slide follows a stellar run this year that propelled it to a record high above $120,000 in October, buoyed by favourable regulatory changes towards crypto assets globally.

But analysts say the market remains scarred by a record single-day slump last month that saw more than $19 billion of positions liquidated.

As it plunged through $100,000 last week and headed for $80,000 on Friday, some analysts said bitcoin was reaching levels that corporate and institutional investors on average paid for their tokens, and where they might have to sell to prevent losses.

Bitcoin has erased all its year-to-date gains and is now down 12 percent for the year, while ether has lost close to 19 percent.

"If it's telling a story about risk sentiment as a whole, then things could start to get really, really ugly, and that's the concern now," Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said of the fall in bitcoin.

CRYPTO TREASURIES

The plunge on Friday will compound problems for so-called crypto treasury companies, which have been big buyers of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this year.

These companies hold the crypto on their balance sheets in the hope the price rises. Standard Chartered has estimated that a drop below $90,000 for bitcoin could leave half of these companies' holdings "underwater" - a term which typically refers to holding assets worth less than what was paid for them.

Analysts say the companies could be forced to raise new funds or sell down their crypto holdings, putting further downward pressure on prices.

Listed companies collectively hold 4 percent of all the bitcoin in circulation, and 3.1 percent of ether, Standard Chartered estimates.

"The procyclical nature of bitcoin treasury companies is fully obvious now, if it wasn't obvious six months ago," Brent Donnelly, president at analytics firm Spectra Markets, said in a note.

"They buy high and now some of them are selling low."

Citi analyst Alex Saunders said $80,000 would be an important level as it is around the average level of bitcoin holdings in exchange-traded funds.

About $1.2 trillion has been wiped off the market value of all cryptocurrencies in the past six weeks, according to market tracker CoinGecko.

Shares in the bitcoin buyers soared earlier this year but have fallen sharply in recent months. Strategy (MSTR.O), opens new tab, the biggest of the treasury firms, has seen its shares tank 61 percent since a July peak, leaving them down nearly 40 percent year-to-date.

JP Morgan said in a note this week that Strategy could be excluded from some MSCI equity indexes, which could spark forced selling by funds that track them.

Japanese peer Metaplanet has tumbled about 80 percent from a June peak.

Donnelly notes that bitcoin selloffs in 2018 and 2022 saw prices drop around 75 percent to 80 percent, which if repeated could see a plunge to as low as $25,000.

"I am not saying we are in crypto winter. Just offering a reminder that 75 percent/80 percent drawdowns have been part of the game in bitcoin," he wrote.

The largest US soybean sales to China in more than two years this week could be just the beginning of an accelerated buying program by Beijing after the world's top importer shunned US supplies for months due to a trade war with Washington.

Even if purchases fall short of the 12 million metric tons that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced, the uptick in sales has buoyed crop prices.

That triggered a flurry of sales by farmers who were holding their crop hoping for such an uptick. Some Chinese traders also cashed in after booking long positions when prices slumped, but any American farmers who sold their crop before the Chinese purchase deal was announced did not benefit.

It remained unclear how quickly China would reach the target that US officials said Beijing has agreed to. The confirmed purchases of nearly 1.6 million metric tons in three days sent US prices sharply higher to a steep premium over shipments from rival exporter Brazil. That has made US soybeans uncompetitive for other importers like Turkey and Vietnam.

It also creates a problem for Beijing, which does not now need more beans after major purchases of South American crops. China must empty some of its national reserves to make space for the US shipments.

Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons by the end of this year after President Donald Trump met in October with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

Last week, Trump said the purchases would take place before spring. Beijing has not officially confirmed the volume commitment, but Bessent said the deal could be inked by late next week.

In past years China has accounted for 50 percent to 60 percent of all US soybean exports, so timing of the purchases is likely to steer soybean prices at least until an official agreement is signed.

"Do I believe China will take 12 million metric tons? I do," said Dan Basse, president of consultancy AgResource Co. "Do I think China will take 12 million tons by the end of the year? Not a chance."

The US Department of Agriculture has confirmed 1.584 million tons in sales to China over three days this week, the largest single-week tally since early November 2023, according to USDA data. Traders and analysts said total sales may be closer to 2 million to 3 million tons after a minimal volume was sold ahead of the Trump-Xi summit with other recent purchases below the USDA's daily reporting threshold.

CBOT soybean futures rallied to their highest point since June 2024 on news of the sales, and the benchmark price was up nearly 12 percent from mid-October ahead of the meeting in South Korea.

This US price rally coincided with a drop in costs for Brazilian soybeans, widening the US premium to Brazil to around 50 cents per bushel for January shipments, or more than $1.1 million per 60,000-ton cargo. The premium for US shipments in February was as high as $1.10 per bushel, according to traders.

A surge in futures open interest during the rally suggested that Chinese importers were among those taking long positions in the market, betting prices would rise. The positions locked in lower prices before they booked physical sales. Futures have retreated as Chinese traders liquidated those long positions, traders said.

"They have actually bought the futures a long time ago, likely when January beans were around $10 a bushel and prior to Xi meeting with Trump and announcing the trade deal. So they have been long the futures this entire time and are now announcing cash purchases, which means they are actually selling their long futures, which in turn is putting pressure against the January soybean futures," said Brian Hoops, analyst with Midwest Market Solutions.

Timely data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showing trader positions in the futures market was not available due to the recent US government shutdown.

A backlog of data, opens new tab will be released piecemeal over the next several weeks. Traders will remain in the dark about current positions in markets through January 23, when the CFTC will be fully caught up on its reports. The data release takes time because the CFTC must do a significant amount of manual work and analysis to make sure the reports are accurate, spokesperson Taylor Foy said.

US farmers, who struggled with low prices for most of the summer and into the fall harvest, accelerated sales of their 2025 soybean harvest during the rally. Growers are estimated to have sold about 30 percent to 40 percent of their harvest so far, based on interviews with six farmers and analysts. These levels would be at or below normal sales in mid-November.

"In some places, the basis is still pretty wide and maybe the farmer is still hoping that the rally may continue," said Tanner Ehmke, analyst with farm lender CoBank. The basis is the difference between futures prices and the local cash market price, reflecting supply and demand at a particular location.

"There may be some apprehension about selling if farmers are expecting still an ad hoc payment," Ehmke said, referring to proposed farmer aid payments that have yet to be finalised.

The Trump administration was expected to announce up to $15 billion in aid payments to farmers hurt by low prices and trade disputes, but the government shutdown delayed that plan. Details about the bailout package would be announced "soon," Agriculture Secretary Rollins said on Wednesday.

After avoiding sales for much of the season due to low prices, Illinois farmer and commodities analyst Sherman Newlin booked some soybean sales as prices began rising. Those sales, booked before the market peaked this week, were below his cost of production.

"We hated to sell, but it's cash flow. We've got a lot of stuff to pay for this time of year," he said.

Spot cash soybean bids at Archer-Daniels-Midland's massive processing plant in Decatur, Illinois, a benchmark for the top soy producing state, were $11.23 per bushel on Thursday afternoon. That was at or above the average estimated break-even price for highly productive farmland in central Illinois from $10.87 to $11.23 per bushel, according to University of Illinois economists, and up from $10.42 per bushel a month ago.

The government will issue shariah-based short-term bills at the beginning of 2026, for the first time in the country. For this purpose, Bangladesh Bank is working on how the government will raise funds from investors.

On the 11th of this month, a policy decision regarding this matter was taken at a meeting of the Cash and Debt Management Committee (CDMC) under the Finance Division of the finance ministry. A senior official of the finance ministry who was present at the meeting confirmed this information to The Business Standard.

The tenure of shariah-based short-term bills is generally less than one year. Therefore, plans have been taken to introduce shariah-based short-term bills of three months, six months and one year.

These bills will be issued against social development projects. When the government decides to issue bills or bonds, the central bank is responsible for formally releasing them to the market. Through issuing bills and bonds, Bangladesh Bank raises funds from the general public, banks, insurance companies, financial institutions and other entities.

Economists and bankers say these shariah-based bills are good for the economy because they will create an investment avenue for those who follow Islamic shariah-based principles. And because these are short-term, investment in this sector is likely to increase.

There had been a kind of mistrust regarding shariah-based banks in the country, especially because customers of the five Islamic banks that were set to be merged could not withdraw their deposits on time. Later, customers withdrew deposits from shariah-based banks. Many depositors still have outstanding dues.
Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

For this reason, as an alternative sector, these shariah-based short-term bills will create a new investment avenue.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist, World Bank Dhaka office, said, "A large portion of the population in the country believes in Islamic shariah-based philosophy. This sector will benefit them greatly. There has been a crisis of confidence in the Islamic-oriented banks, and this crisis has had a significant impact on the economy. Customers had deposited money in the five banks because they trusted them, but due to irregularities, the customers could not withdraw their money on time. Once Islamic bills are introduced, a new investment sector will be created."

He added, "Traditional banks can invest in different sectors but shariah-based banks cannot do so. Therefore, a new sector will open up for Islamic banks. Along with them, shariah-based financial institutions and insurance companies will also be able to invest in this new sector."

Merged banks to get the opportunity to invest in these bills

Once these bills are introduced, a new investment sector will open for shariah-based banks. The newly merged bank formed from the five banks will also benefit. A former managing director of an Islamic shariah-based bank believes this will give them an opportunity to earn profits by investing in a new sector.

He said that if Islamic-oriented banks cannot distribute loans, they have limited avenues for investing their funds elsewhere. While traditional banks can invest in treasury bills and bonds, Islamic-oriented banks cannot. Once these bills are introduced, Islamic-oriented banks will have another option because they will be able to invest depositors' funds in these bills.

A large portion of traditional banks' income now comes from investments in treasury bills and bonds.

He added that most banks now earn income from non-operating sources, such as investments in bills and bonds.

A senior official of the central bank said that this initiative is being taken because there is market demand for these shariah-based Islamic bills. Therefore, it is expected that the bills will be introduced before next year's Ramadan or during Ramadan.

He said that individuals, banks, financial institutions, insurance companies and any other entity will be able to purchase these bills. The decision to introduce such instruments has been made precisely because there is demand in the market for this type of bill.

To raise funds, the government first introduced Islamic bonds in late 2020. Afterwards, Bangladesh Bank issued two more sukuk — in December 2021 and in the first half of 2022. Through these, shariah-based banks and the Islamic banking windows of commercial banks were able to invest in these government securities.

A senior official of Bangladesh Bank said that traditional banks can invest in repo, treasury bills, bonds and other government securities issued by the central bank, but Islamic-oriented banks cannot. Therefore, these bills will serve as a new investment sector.

Investment in treasury bills, bonds boosted profits for traditional banks

A large portion of traditional banks' income now comes from investments in treasury bills and bonds. At the beginning of 2025, the outlook for Bangladesh's banking sector appeared bleak — deposit interest rates were rising, inflation persisted, loan demand slackened, margins were squeezed, and political uncertainty raised fears of an earnings slump.

But the opposite happened. Private banks' profits not only held up but grew — especially in those considered "good players". The reason was not loan expansion or new business success but the substantial income earned from government bonds and treasury bills. Government securities have effectively become the new lifeline for banks, transforming the balance sheets of the entire sector.

The change was striking in the case of BRAC Bank. Between 2020 and 2022, the bank's investment income was between Tk700 crore and Tk800 crore, but in 2024 it rose to a record Tk2,880 crore — almost a four-fold increase in just two years.

Investment income grew 67% in 2023 and a further 127% in 2024, far exceeding the bank's income from loan interest or other fees.

In the first nine months of 2025, the bank's net profit rose 50% year-on-year to Tk1,553 crore. However, during the same period, net interest income (the difference between loan and deposit interest) fell by about 7%, or Tk100 crore.

In other words, income from treasury investments kept the bank's earnings afloat.

Like BRAC Bank, City, Dutch-Bangla, Prime, MTB and Eastern are also earning income through investments in treasury bills and bonds.

Although revised targets are usually lowered midway through a financial year, this year is an exception as the government has increased the revenue target for the current fiscal 2025-26 by Tk55,000 crore, raising it from the existing Tk4.99 lakh crore.

This means the existing target is being raised by about 11%. And compared to what was collected in FY2024-25, the new target requires a 49% increase – which some experts believe is practically impossible.

According to relevant sources, the finance ministry has already conveyed the new target to the National Board of Revenue (NBR). Based on this, the revenue board has fixed enhanced collection targets for its field offices and communicated them accordingly.

A finance ministry official, speaking to The Business Standard on condition of anonymity, said the higher target was set as part of efforts to reduce the deficit and manage increased expenditure.

The NBR also considers the new target challenging.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told TBS, "Achieving higher revenue as per the new target will be challenging, yet we will try our best to meet it."

He, however, added, "The economic situation has not improved significantly, and there are issues in certain sectors, including banks."

According to NBR data, in the first four months (July to October) of FY2025-26, revenue collection grew by slightly less than 16% compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. During this period, collections fell short of the target by Tk17,219 crore.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (Research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the NBR is already far behind the existing target, and thus the additional Tk55,000 crore – effectively a 49% increase – is not achievable.

He told TBS, "Even under normal circumstances, the government's overall revenue collection falls far short of targets. And this year an election will be held. There is also no major economic momentum. Under such conditions, it is unclear what considerations led to setting a higher revenue target.

"Previous governments used to do this – setting large targets and failing to achieve them – which created a credibility gap regarding budgets and targets. We need to break out of this cycle…It also needs clarification whether this has anything to do with the IMF."

An analysis of Bangladesh's revenue collection data shows that in the last two and a half decades the government increased the revised revenue target above the initial target only once. During the military-backed caretaker government in FY2007-08, collections exceeded the target by a large margin – nearly 27% – the highest growth rate recorded to date.

In other years, the revised target was kept the same as the original, or was reduced.

NBR statistics show that over the last five years, average revenue growth has been close to 15%.

Dr Muhammad Abdul Mazid, who served as NBR chairman during FY2007-08, told TBS, "Considering the size of the country's economy, revenue collection remains low. So, there is scope to increase collection."

Noting that Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio is the lowest among Asian countries, he said, "If taxes are properly collected from those who are supposed to pay, this target can be achieved."

Bangladesh Bank has introduced a major policy step to expand the country's export channels by allowing shipments under a Business-to-Business-to-Consumer (B2B2C) framework.

The central bank issued a foreign exchange circular on November 24 this year, enabling exporters to sell goods to global consumers through internationally recognised online platforms and marketplaces.

Under the new circular, authorised dealer (AD) banks may now facilitate exports from Bangladesh where the overseas consignee is not the final buyer but acts as an intermediary — such as a global platform, marketplace, or third-party warehouse.

To execute exports under this framework, exporters must provide AD banks with documented proof of their registration on globally recognised online platforms or warehouses.

As traditional sales contracts are typically absent in B2B2C structures, exporters may declare the value of shipments based on pro forma invoices.

AD banks are allowed to accept shipping documents prepared in the name of the consignee providing warehousing or other facilitating services.

In terms of proceeds realisation, ADs may receive export payments through normal banking channels, including payments routed via legitimate international payment service operators.

Since export receipts under platform-based sales may cover multiple shipments, the central bank has relaxed the requirement for one-to-one payment matching.

ADs may settle receipts using the First-in, First-out (FIFO) method, allowing earlier shipments to be adjusted first.

Industry insiders believe the move will ease cross-border e-commerce operations, strengthen Bangladesh's footprint in global online marketplaces and provide small and medium exporters with wider market access.

The new framework is expected to support diversified export growth by integrating Bangladeshi products more effectively into global digital retail channels.

Gold prices held steady on Monday as growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month helped offset pressure from a firm US dollar.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $4,070.97 per ounce, as of 1011 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to $4,067.80 per ounce.

The dollar held near the six-month highs hit on Friday, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

"Gold steadied as investors evaluated the prospect of another Fed rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams signalled there may be room to lower borrowing costs amid a softening labour market, even as other officials struck a more cautious tone," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Williams on Friday said that US interest rates could fall without putting the Fed's inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market.

Bets of a rate cut next month had surged to 76 percent from 40 percent on Friday, following dovish comments from Williams, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Meanwhile, investors awaited key economic indicators, including US retail sales, jobless claims and producer price figures due later this week.

On the geopolitical front, the US and Ukraine were set to continue work on Monday on a plan to end the war with Russia after agreeing to modify an earlier proposal that was widely seen as too favourable to Moscow.

"Gold struggles to gain traction on Fed cut likely being pushed, China demand concerns, easing trade risks. On downside support, central banks remain net buyers and concerns persist on Supreme Court decision (on Trump's tariffs)," Standard Chartered said in a note.

Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.4 percent at $50.20 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4 percent to $1,516.20, while palladium fell 0.4 percent to $1,369.

Mir Akhter Hossain Limited has secured a fresh government project in Lalmonirhat at a time when the long-established construction firm is grappling with severe financial strain driven largely by delayed bill payments from ongoing public projects.

Awarded on 29 October, the project involves constructing a primary school, installing solar power facilities, developing connecting roads, building bridge-culverts, and undertaking tree plantation works at a cost of Tk174.62 crore.

With a duration of 24 months, the project offers some operational relief, but company insiders said it remains far from enough to offset the growing financial pressure.

The impact of these payment bottlenecks was starkly visible in the company's performance for the July-September quarter of FY26.

Mir Akhter reported a 75% drop in revenue, which plummeted to a mere Tk9 crore. This is a steep fall for a company of its stature and indicates a near-standstill in billable execution for its own construction units.

Consequently, the company incurred a loss of Tk2.54 crore from its standalone construction business during this period. The only financial lifeline preventing a bottom-line disaster was its income from Joint Ventures (JV).

By factoring in the JV earnings, Mir Akhter managed to scrape together a net profit of Tk2 crore at the end of the first quarter, a figure that remains precariously low compared to its historical performance, according to the company's unaudited report.

The company's financial performance had already weakened in the previous fiscal year. In FY25, its revenue dropped by 50% to Tk133.95 crore, while net profit fell by 31% to Tk20 crore.

Mir Akhter declared a 10.50% cash dividend for general shareholders, but analysts noted that this payout was modest compared to past years and reflected broader stress in the construction sector.

A senior officer of the company, speaking to The Business Standard on condition of anonymity, provided context to the dismal numbers.

He explained that the country's infrastructure sector has slowed significantly under. While smaller projects like the one in Lalmonirhat are still being processed, they are insufficient to generate the significant profit margins required to sustain a company with Mir Akhter's overheads.

The official added that until an elected government takes charge, the approval and commencement of large-scale, long-term projects have effectively been paused.

More critically, he noted that while work on ongoing projects continues, the government has halted timely bill payments. This delay has caused a drastic erosion in revenue and profit, forcing the company into a struggle for survival where liquidity is the primary casualty.

According to Mir Akhter's latest operational report, the company is currently working on 21 projects with a combined value of Tk8,013 crore.

These include major infrastructure developments, such as the SASEC Dhaka–Sylhet Corridor Road Investment Project.

It is also partnering in several high-profile joint ventures, including works at Cox's Bazar Airport, the four-lane road from Dulla Mari Road to Tangail, construction of a 7.35km road in Cox's Bazar, improvement of the Jamuna Bridge-Hatikamrul highway, and strengthening of runways and taxiways at Osmani International Airport and Shah Amanat International Airport.

These projects, although large in value, require steady capital investment – something difficult to maintain without timely payments, according to the company source.

Financially, the company has been attempting to diversify its funding sources but with limited success. In December 2024, Mir Akhter announced a plan to raise Tk250 crore through preference shares to repay outstanding loans and stabilise cash flow.

Shareholders approved the proposal at the annual general meeting in February 2025. However, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) declined to grant the needed approval, halting the effort.

As of September 2025, Mir Akhter's total loans and borrowings stood at Tk1,583 crore, combining both current and long-term liabilities. This heavy debt burden underscores the urgency with which the company is seeking fresh funding options.

Earlier, in April 2024, it had planned to raise Tk300 crore through a corporate bond but later withdrew the plan, reportedly due to unfavourable conditions and regulatory complications.

In March 2022, the company succeeded in issuing a Tk249.90 crore zero-coupon bond after approval from the securities regulator.

In November 2020, it raised Tk125 crore through an initial public offering (IPO) under the book-building method, intending to expand its business, purchase equipment, and reduce bank loans. The cut-off price of the share was set at Tk60. But the stock has since depreciated sharply.

On Monday, shares of Mir Akhter closed 4.04% higher at Tk28.30 – still less than half its IPO reference price.

The government has reviser the tax-revenue-collection target upward by Tk 540 billion to meet a growing need for internal resources to manage budget deficit.

Debt service has become a major headache for the government as loans taken from foreign and domestic sources have reached an optimum level.

Debt-servicing amounts hit a record Tk 1.35 trillion in the past fiscal year (FY25), in a quantum leap from Tk 320 billion in FY2016. Domestic borrowings account for 88 per cent of total debt repayments, finance ministry data show.

Following this, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has instructed the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to mobilise Tk 5.54 trillion in taxes, up from the targeted Tk 4.99 trillion in the current fiscal year's budget.

Economists say the government's fiscal space has shrunk to an alarming level for mounting debt-servicing pressure.

Talking to The Financial Express on Monday, Finance Adviser of the interim government Dr Salehuddin Ahmed said the main reason for this revision is the shrinking fiscal space, which the government cannot manage by borrowing.

"We have no alternatives but to focus on domestic revenue mobilisation," he says.

The government has observed revenue-mobilisation growth picking up in the past few months, so both tax and non-tax revenues have to rise, he notes to corroborate the move.

Government's bank borrowing for domestic financing has put private-sector credits under pressure.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur, on Sunday, told the FE that the government is taking more than Tk 1.0 trillion from banks to meet expenses, which has shrunk private-sector credits.

"Mobilisation of higher revenue is now imperative to reduce such dependence on banks," he said.

Dr Abdur Razzaque, Chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), says there are no alternatives to increasing domestic revenue mobilisation. And it is possible with existing resources and manpower.

"The government needs to formalize the informal sector, bringing a large untaxed sector under the tax net," he says to show the way.

The margin of fiscal space is extremely low now, which has also been indicated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a downgrade to a moderate rating from low risk, he points out.

"The government is a bit shaky about taking budget support from development partners, fearing an aggravated debt burden," he notes.

Debt servicing by the government is almost equivalent to the amount collected as domestic revenue, so the government cannot spend if revenue mobilisation is not increased.

"I think this government wants to leave some pragmatic signals for the next government on which sector it must concentrate," he adds.

The upward revision comes as a surprise to the NBR high-ups, who found the previous target ambitious.

Three wings of revenue board-income tax, VAT, and customs-have distributed their increased targets to the tax zones, customs houses, and VAT offices with instructions for intensifying efforts.

A senior official of the NBR says already the taxmen are apprehending a Tk 600-billion shortfall in its previous target of Tk 4.99 trillion. Now, the revenue-collection shortfall would hover above Tk 1.0 trillion by year-end.

"What significant changes in tax-revenue mobilisation have been made to expect a quantum jump in collection?" he asks.

Automation of tax-return submission, as well as the expansion of tax departments in recent years, would need time to pay off, he says.

In the first quarter, the NBR was lagging behind its target by Tk 170 billion.

On October 26, the MoF issued a directive that no additional allocations would be considered under any circumstances and asked ministries and divisions to cut back on less-essential expenses to stay within limits.

Also, the interim government backtracked on its move to implement a national pay scale in its tenure due to budget constraints.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) plans to bring all financial institutions, including banks, mobile financial service (MFS) providers, insurance companies, and other relevant entities, under an interoperable transaction system by July 2027.

Under this system, cash-outs will no longer be required, BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur said today at an event at the Westin Dhaka, organised by BB.

At the event, BB signed an agreement with the Gates Foundation's Mojaloop—an open-source software platform for financial service companies, government regulators, and others—to establish the interoperable transaction platform virtually.

The Mojaloop-based platform will be named the Inclusive Instant Payment System (IIPS).

Mansur said digitisation is essential for ensuring transparency in financial transactions, adding that the interoperable transaction system is crucial to achieving this.

"There is no alternative to moving towards this system in the future. It will enhance transparency, reduce corruption, and increase revenue collection," he added.

Canada and India have agreed to restart stalled talks for a new trade deal, the Indian government said on Sunday, after discussions between the two countries paused following a diplomatic spat two years ago.

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a bilateral discussion on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

"The leaders agreed to begin negotiations on a high-ambition Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), aimed at doubling bilateral trade to USD 50 billion by 2030," the statement from India's Prime Minister's Office said.

"Prime Minister @narendramodi and I met at the G20 Summit today, and launched negotiations for a trade deal that could more than double our trade to more than (C) $70 billion," Carney said in a post on X. "India is the world's fifth largest economy, and that means big new opportunities for Canadian workers and businesses."

Both sides reaffirmed their longstanding civil nuclear cooperation and noted the ongoing discussions on expanding collaboration, including through long-term uranium supply arrangements, it added.

The restart of talks highlights thawing relations between the two countries as Carney pushes to expand trade ties beyond the US, its biggest trading partner.

Carney has vowed to double Canada's non-US exports over the next decade.

Canada paused negotiations for a broad trade pact in 2023 after relations soured when Ottawa accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist. New Delhi has denied involvement.

Despite the diplomatic row, trade between Canada and India has grown but trade experts say it is quite small relative to the size of India's economy.

Two-way goods and services trade touched about C$31 billion ($21.98 billion) in 2024, largely in Canada's favor due to its C$16 billion in services exports. In contrast, Canada's total bilateral trade with China was almost four times bigger in 2024.

Relations between Canada and India began to improve following Modi's meeting with Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit in June.

Earlier on Sunday, Carney said he considers India a reliable trading partner, although he acknowledged there could be some "source of friction."

He said Canada and India have a strong commercial relationship and he would be keen to scale that up.

"What we're looking to do is to put that (commercial relationship) on a sound footing through a potential trade agreement between the two countries, which gives protections to our businesses, protections to Indian businesses, a clear set of rules, dispute mechanisms, and others, and build on those opportunities."

Carney also met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the G20 summit and the leaders agreed to intensify negotiations on a Canada-Mercosur free trade agreement. Mercosur includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

European Union ministers are set to urge top US trade officials on Monday to apply more of the (7 July) EU-US trade deal, such as by cutting US tariffs on EU steel and removing them for EU goods such as wine and spirits.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet EU ministers responsible for trade on their first trips to Brussels since taking office.

The EU ministers plan to discuss pressing trade issues, including Chinese rare earth and chip exports restrictions, and host Lutnick and Greer for 90 minutes over lunch.

Under the end-(7 July) deal, the United States set 15% tariffs on most EU goods, while the European Union agreed to remove many of its duties on US imports.

That may only happen in (March or April), given it requires approval from the European Parliament and EU governments, which EU diplomats say has exasperated Washington.

But while insisting the process is on course, the 27-nation bloc is also pointing to agreed items on which it wants to see progress, chief among them steel and aluminium.

The United States has a 50% tariff on the metals and since mid-(August) has applied this to the metal content in 407 "derivative" products such as motorcycles and refrigerators. More derivatives may be added next month.

EU diplomats say that such actions, along with the prospect of new tariffs on trucks, critical minerals, planes and wind turbines, threaten to hollow out the (7 July) accord.

"We're at a delicate moment," one EU diplomat said. "The US is looking for reasons to criticise the EU as we are trying to get them to work on steel and other unresolved matters."

The bloc additionally wants a broader range of its products subject only to low pre-Trump duties. These could include wine and spirits, olives and pasta.

The EU is also ready to discuss areas of possible regulatory cooperation, such as covering cars, the bloc's proposed purchases of US energy and joint efforts on economic security, particularly in response to Chinese export controls.

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) gets a Tk10-billion in interest-bearing government loan to invest in stocks to resuscitate bearish bourses of the country, sources say.

It's seen as a significant move as the decision comes just days after reports surfaced regarding the Finance Ministry's hesitation to funnel further funds for loan repayments, marking a policy turn to save the state-run investment agency.

For financing, the Financial Institutions Division (FID) of the finance ministry on November 20 issued a sanction order.

The FID has given a set of conditions to ensure discipline and transparent utilisation of the lent money.

The loan carries 5.0-percent interest, significantly lower than the 12+percent rates charged on commercial loans currently choking the entity.

Repayment time is 10 years in 6-month installments with a one-year grace period.

The accrued interest amount during the grace period has to be paid with the first installment.

As per the conditions binding the credit, the allocated funds must be spent on the approved purpose.

The loan agreement takes effect from the date of disbursement of the allocated funds.

According to the order, the allocated funds will be reconciled with the audited accounts of the ICB. The investment corporation has to submit an audited report by a chartered accountant firm to the FID within the next 3 months.

The state entity has to go by all government financial rules and regulations during the spending of the money.

"The ICB must pay to the FID if there are any previous dues with the division," the order reads.

This intervention comes at a moment of existential peril for the ICB. As reported earlier this month, the corporation suffered a record loss of Tk 12.13 billion in the fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, an official document shows.

Contacted, a senior officer of the FID said the root of the crisis "lies in a vicious debt trap".

He points out that the corporation has been borrowing at high commercial rates (up to 12-13 per cent) to invest in a bearish stock market where returns have been negative.

Currently, most of ICB's total income is consumed exclusively by interest payments on its existing debts. "They are essentially borrowing to pay off borrowings," the official says.

A high official of the finance division informs that this approval was fast-tracked following a closed-door meeting with the ICB officials.

Prof Abu Ahmed, Chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, told the FE that they sought Tk 20 billion from the government to mitigate its liquidity crisis and ensure stability on the stock market.

However, the government provided Tk 10 billion as loans. "We have already started injecting the fund into the market, particularly in fundamentally strong stocks, from the fund," says the academic-turned ICB chairman.

Another closed-end mutual fund - Vanguard AML BD Finance Mutual Fund One - is going to be liquidated next month after a majority of its unitholders voted against its conversion into an open-ended fund upon maturity.

The fund's trustee - Bangladesh General Insurance Company (BGIC) - at a recent meeting proposed the conversion after the end of the fund's tenure on December 23 this year, but most unitholders decided that the fund should rather be wound up.

Mir Ariful Islam, managing director of Sandhani Asset Management, said redemption would allow unitholders to recover their investments at the current net asset value (NAV), a relief for them, especially when units were trading at heavy discounts in the secondary market.

Following the news, the unit price of the fund rose 2.9 per cent over the previous session to Tk 7.1 on Sunday on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, still trading at a 29 per cent discount on the face value of Tk 10.

The fund has reported a net asset value (NAV) of Tk 8.75 per unit on the basis of the current market prices of underlying assets, as of November 20 this year, whereas the face value is Tk 10 per unit.

Investors who put money in the pooled fund in 2016 and have held on to their holdings until redemption will have insignificant returns on investment.

The fund distributed 2 per cent to 15 per cent cash dividends between 2016 and 2023. The net asset value per unit is Tk 8.75 at present, which is 12.5 per cent lower than the face value.

Considering the dividend income and NAV, a unitholder's average annual return comes to around 5.28 per cent until 2023, much lower than inflation during the period.

This is going to be the second instance in a decade that investors of a close-ended pooled fund will redeem their units upon maturity. Earlier, Asian Tiger Sandhani Life Growth Fund was liquidated in March this year as the securities regulator had rejected the time extension appeal.

Asset managers say unitholders who purchased units at discounted prices would benefit.

As per the latest amended mutual fund rules, close-ended funds must be redeemed on maturity - no tenure extension is allowed, a corrective move to change course from past mistakes.

However, such funds may be converted into open-ended funds if three-fourths of unitholders, based on the percentage of ownership, give approval.

Currently, there are 37 close-ended mutual funds on the stock exchanges. Of them, 34 are trading below the face value of Tk 10 per unit, with 24 among those trading below Tk 5 per unit.

Meanwhile, another close-ended fund - SEML Lecture Equity Management Fund, overseen by Strategic Equity Management - will also complete 10 years on December 23 this year.

However, 93 per cent of the unitholders at a recent meeting voted in favour of the fund's conversion into an open-ended fund.

The initial fund size was Tk 500 million, and the current net asset value stood at Tk 485 million. Trading in the fund units has remained suspended since October 30 this year, and the last closing price was Tk 7.4 per unit.

Bangladesh Thai Aluminium Limited, popularly known as BD Thai, witnessed a significant 70% decline in revenue, which resulted in wider losses in the 2024–25 fiscal year.

Due to the losses, the engineering sector firm has decided not to declare any dividend for its shareholders for FY25.

With the announcement of a significant loss for last fiscal year, the company has now been incurring losses for three consecutive fiscal years since FY2022–23.

Its seven-year data from FY20 to FY25 shows that the latest loss is the highest in the period. Last year, despite a Tk10.81 crore loss, the company still paid a 0.25% cash dividend to shareholders.

According to its financial statements for the year ended June 2025, BD Thai's revenue dropped to Tk18 crore — a 70% decline from Tk60.28 crore in the previous fiscal year.

The company's losses widened to Tk25.71 crore, with a loss per share of Tk2.01. In the previous year, its loss per share stood at Tk0.85.

Despite the drop in revenue and wider losses, BD Thai's share price rose by 6.93% to Tk10.80 each on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today.

Its net asset value (NAV) per share fell to Tk28.60 at the end of June 2025, compared to Tk30.56 a year earlier.

Its net operating cash flow per share also remained negative at Tk1.32, against Tk0.96 negative in FY24.

The company's annual general meeting is scheduled for 30 December through a hybrid format — combining physical and online participation.

The record date for determining shareholders has been fixed for 14 December.

BD Thai began operations in 1979 as a pioneer in manufacturing aluminum profiles for doors, windows, and curtain walls in Bangladesh. It was listed on the stock exchanges in 1991.

The Bangladesh Bank has extended the deadline for rescheduling classified loans – taken by borrowers whose businesses were harmed by factors beyond their control during the Sheikh Hasina administration – allowing them to restructure their loans for 10 years with only a 2% down payment.

According to a new circular issued yesterday by the Banking Regulation and Policy Department, the deadline has been pushed to 30 November, instead of the previously announced 30 June.

The central bank has also extended the timeframe for special loan restructuring, which was earlier limited to June this year. Under the new circular, the deadline has been extended to 31 December.

Exit facility eased

The Bangladesh Bank has introduced major changes to the exit facility, offering significant relief to borrowers.

Under the previous rule, even if an exit period of four years was approved, the borrower remained classified during the entire exit period. The borrower could repay the dues in instalments or in a lump sum at any point during those four years, but their loan status did not improve until full repayment.

However, Bangladesh Bank has now changed this rule.

Now, once a borrower opts for the exit facility, their loan status will be upgraded, similar to what happens after a rescheduling. This means the borrower will no longer remain on the defaulters' list.

However, the central bank has tightened repayment discipline.

The new circular notes that earlier, many borrowers who opted for exit facilities would repay the entire amount in a single payment after four years. That will no longer be allowed.

Under the new rules, the borrower must repay in quarterly instalments, and the annual repayment must not fall below 20% of the outstanding amount. If the borrower fails to pay the instalment for any three-month period, they will again be marked as a defaulter.

The circular also states that although borrowers under the new exit scheme cannot receive new funded loans, they will still be eligible for non-funded facilities, such as opening Letters of Credit (LCs).

Speaking to TBS yesterday, Md Touhidul Alam Khan, managing director and CEO of NRBC Bank, welcomed the Bangladesh Bank initiative, saying, "I believe this effort will contribute significantly to reducing non-performing loans in the banking sector. Importantly, regular customers will also have the opportunity to restructure their loans under this circular."

"Banks can leverage this circular to enhance banker–customer relationships and develop exit plans that benefit both parties. Overall, this is a commendable initiative by Bangladesh Bank that promotes financial health and stability," he added.