When Bangladesh Bank (BB) recently announced that shareholders of five weak shariah banks slated for merger would receive nothing for their holdings, it sent shockwaves through the market. The move meant an estimated Tk 4,500 crore in paper wealth turning to dust overnight. Investor confidence plunged, with the DSE key index falling to its lowest level in four months.

Now, another fear is looming over the market. Shareholders in eight non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), all earmarked for liquidation, may also lose almost everything.

BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur said in August that nine NBFIs would be shut down because their financial condition had deteriorated beyond repair.

Eight of those are listed on the stock exchanges: FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing.

Together, these eight NBFIs have a combined paid-up capital of about Tk 1,450 crore. Stock-market investors hold roughly two-thirds of this, with a face value of Tk 947 crore, which they are likely to lose entirely if the firms go into liquidation.

Even the current market value of those shares, reportedly above Tk 100 crore, matters little, since liquidation payments are based on actual realised asset value, not market speculation.

NOTHING FOR SHAREHOLDERS

The problem is that the NBFIs' liabilities far exceed their assets: their net asset value (NAV) per share is deeply negative for most. In other words, when the companies' assets are sold off and debts cleared, there will be nothing, or far too little, left for ordinary shareholders.

In such insolvency-driven liquidation, shareholders sit at the very bottom of the list of claimants.

For small investors, it is another chapter in a difficult month. Share prices have stayed depressed, and now the looming NBFI liquidations have darkened the mood further.

Rony Haidar, a retail investor, said he bought thousands of shares of People's Leasing at Tk 3 last year, hoping the company would recover the way several weak banks once did after receiving government support.

"Now the share is trading below Tk 1. I have already suffered huge losses," he told The Daily Star. "The government stepped in to save some banks, so I thought something similar might happen here. But no support came for the NBFIs."

He believes years of unchecked irregularities in banks and NBFIs have left small investors exposed and unprotected.

Updated financial reports paint an equally grim picture. Seven of the eight listed NBFIs have an average net asset value of negative Tk 95 per share. Prime Finance is the exception, but even its last disclosed figure – Tk 5.31 per share in 2023 – offers little comfort given the sector's steep deterioration.

"This situation had been building for years," said Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh.

"We warned that a financial crisis was brewing because banks and NBFIs were being drained. Their non-performing loans (NPL) grew so large that they had nothing left to rebuild with. Now, with liquidation coming, small investors are being hit hardest," he added.

Islam said many investors were misled because financial statements did not reflect the true extent of the problems.

"Auditors and credit rating agencies must be held accountable. Regulators, too, cannot avoid responsibility," he added.

According to BB data, the eight NBFIs accounted for 52 percent of the sector's Tk 25,089 crore in defaulted loans at the end of last year. Twelve institutions alone carried 73.5 percent of all bad loans in the sector.

In January, the central bank classified 20 NBFIs as financially "red-category" – meaning they had dangerously high defaulted loans and weak capital positions – and asked them to justify why their licences should not be cancelled.

Nine failed to provide satisfactory answers and have been put on the initial liquidation list.

DIFFERENT TREATMENT FOR NBFIs?

A senior official of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) said the regulator would communicate with the government if liquidation proceeds, in order to safeguard small investors, though he declined to specify how that might be done.

"The government doesn't consult us before making such decisions. We are left out," said another BSEC official.

Earlier, during discussions on the five-bank merger, the BSEC had urged the central bank to ensure that general shareholders did not lose everything – a plea that went unanswered.

The BB governor later said investors of the five banks would not get anything from the merger, adding that the government could decide separately whether to offer compensation. No such announcement has been made for the NBFIs so far.

Asif Khan, president of the CFA Society, an association of investment professionals, said, "There is no difference between what happened in several banks and these NBFIs. But as banks are larger, the government thought to save some of them."

"The situation of the NBFIs has already impacted the price of their stocks. Shares of many are down below Tk 1 or around Tk 2," he stated.

He added that NBFIs are already bankrupt and have failed to repay depositors' funds for several years. "In this situation, shareholders have nothing to get back. Depositors have priority in repayment. Even if the government wanted to give something to shareholders, who would bear the cost?"

Khan suggested that a system should be created to prevent such cases, with proper reporting of NPLs and accountability for regulators. "Finally, wrongdoers should be punished to send a signal," he said.

A top official of a leading NBFI noted that while shareholders accept market risks, it is unfair that general shareholders bear full losses caused largely by misconduct.

"Whatever decision the government takes regarding banks, it should be similar for NBFIs," he said on condition of anonymity.

BB spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan did not respond to calls or texts from The Daily Star.

Bangladesh's independent power producers (IPPs) are struggling with prolonged government payment delays, which they say are disrupting their fuel procurement and financial obligations, and warn that such disruptions could hamper the sector's power supply reliability.

According to officials from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) and IPPs, the BPDB now owes more than Tk27,000 crore to over 70 local and foreign IPPs, with nearly Tk17,000 crore owed to local producers and the rest to foreign-backed ventures.

IPP owners said payments are currently delayed by up to 6-7 months beyond the due dates, creating severe liquidity pressures across the sector.

Several private power producers have already written to the BPDB chairman, cautioning that prolonged delays threaten the entire sector's sustainability.

Md Shamim Mia, head of Regulatory Affairs at United Power Generation and Distribution Company, told TBS that continued non-payment of dues could severely affect power production.

"Some of our bills have been outstanding for 6-7 months, and lenders are losing confidence in us. We urge policymakers to step in and resolve the long-standing issues in the power sector," he said.

Imran Karim, vice chairman of Confidence Group, which operates four IPPs under Confidence Power Holdings Limited (total capacity 393.36MW), said payment delay sometimes exceeds nine months, affecting bank repayments, fuel procurement, and operational continuity.

Asked about the outstanding power purchase bills, Power Adviser Fouzul Kabir Khan told TBS, "We are paying the IPPs. But to expedite payments, we have requested funds from the Finance Division and are also arranging resources from elsewhere."

IPP owners said Titas Gas has started issuing formal notices over overdue bills, including interest implications. They added that while BPDB is not paying them on time, it is imposing liquidated damages for power supply failures caused by fuel import delays amid the liquidity crisis.

IPPs' letter to BPDB

TBS has seen several letters from IPPs to BPDB. In a letter to the BPDB chairman on 9 November, Summit Power International Ltd, the largest private power producer operating 18 plants with a total capacity of 2,255MW, warned that prolonged payment delays have pushed the company into a critical financial situation. The letter added, "Our lenders have expressed deep concern and may declare default if payments are not received immediately."

It also stated, "The O&M [operation and management] contractor is struggling to meet payroll for both local and foreign staff, while payments under the long-term service agreement with General Electronics remain pending."

Doreen Power Generations and Systems Ltd raised similar concerns, reporting defaults in loan repayments, inability to open LCs for Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and spare parts, unsettled matured LCs, forced loans by banks, and even challenges in paying taxes on fuel imports.

"Our bills have remained outstanding for at least 4-5 months. We have already exhausted all available resources to keep the power plant operational," Mostafa Moin, CEO of Doreen Power, said.

Letters seen by TBS show Summit Power alone is owed Tk4,924 crore. United Power reported outstanding dues of Tk3,078 crore for February-October.

Dorren Power is owed Tk1,378 crore, and Confidence Power around Tk1,400 crore.

BPDB officials told TBS that under the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), the board is required to pay interest on overdue payments, calculated at the central bank's one-year Treasury note yield plus 4%. They added that if delays continue, total dues with accumulated interest could surpass Tk40,000 crore, further increasing BPDB's financial burden.

BPDB's struggles

BPDB's difficulties in clearing mounting dues stem from several long-standing structural challenges, according to sector analysts.

High generation costs, particularly from imported fuels, continue to put significant pressure. The board's reliance on subsidies, which now exceed Tk40,000 crore annually, further strains the government's fiscal capacity.

A persistent gap between generation costs and retail tariffs has created substantial financial deficits; in FY2023-24, the per-unit generation cost was around Tk12, while the average sale rate was Tk8.50.

Limited foreign currency reserves have delayed fuel imports, directly affecting BPDB's ability to settle bills on time. Additionally, excess installed capacity forces BPDB to make capacity payments even when plants are underutilised, further inflating its liabilities.

Sector-wise generation capacity

Bangladesh currently has 135 power plants connected to the national grid, with a total generation capacity of 27,905MW. Of these, 63 plants are publicly owned, contributing 11,735MW, which accounts for 42% of the country's generation capacity.

In addition, two joint-venture plants generate 2,478MW, representing 9% of the total generation capacity.

The private sector plays a significant role as well, with over 70 IPPs supplying 11,055MW, or 40% of total capacity.

The remaining 2,636MW comes from imported electricity.

General insurers in the country posted solid year-on-year profit growth in the July-September 2025 quarter, buoyed by a sharp recovery in marine insurance and stronger income from investments, particularly government securities.

Industry insiders said marine insurance, which accounts for nearly 60% of general insurers' business, continued to regain stability as import and export activities normalized. Higher interest rates on government bonds and treasury bills also boosted investment earnings, helping lift overall profitability across much of the sector.

Experts noted that the industry began showing steady improvement from early this year as trade activities normalised, import and export operations gained momentum, leading to an increase in LC openings.

The rebound has been particularly visible in marine insurance, which had been badly disrupted by the dollar crisis in recent years.

However, not all companies have recovered equally. Some insurers were affected by political developments, losing major clients and experiencing slower recovery.

A review of July-September 2025 financial statements from 43 insurers listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange shows that 27 companies posted year-on-year profit growth in the third quarter, while 16 reported a decline.

Marine insurance provides financial protection against loss or damage to ships, cargo, and other marine assets during sea or river transportation.

It is generally categorized into two types – Marine Hull Insurance (for vessels) and Marine Cargo Insurance (for goods). This coverage protects against losses from incidents such as shipwrecks, collisions, storms, theft, and other unforeseen events.

United Insurance Managing Director Khawja Manzer Nadeem told The Business Standard that their business saw strong growth in the July-September quarter as the dollar crisis eased.

"During this period, more than 60% of our total business came from marine insurance. Our investment income also increased significantly due to higher interest rates. This time, we received more LCs from the garments, pharmaceuticals, and essential goods sectors," he said.

He added that during the dollar shortage, banks had been opening LCs only for essential items, causing marine insurance business to fall by 35%-40%.

Nadeem noted that most of the country's marine insurance business depends on imports by the garment and industrial sectors – both of which have been steadily recovering since January. As a result, the overall marine insurance sector has grown by more than 20%, although growth rates vary across companies.

Among individual insurers, Paramount Insurance reported a 214.8% year-on-year jump in earnings per share in Q3 2025, rising to Tk0.85 from Tk0.27. The company attributed the increase mainly to higher interest income and a modest rise in premium collections.

Desh General Insurance recorded a 108.3% year-on-year profit rise, while Peoples Insurance posted 102.5% growth driven by premium collections, rental earnings and investment income.

On the other hand, Agrani Insurance reported a significant loss in Q3 2025 due to lower premium income. Claims expenses increased following several fire incidents during the period, resulting in a loss per share of Tk32 compared to earnings per share of Tk29 in the same quarter last year.

Provati Insurance saw its profit drop by 60.7% year-on-year, Federal Insurance reported a 38.1% decline, and Asia Pacific General Insurance recorded a 31% fall.

Overall, despite pockets of losses and slower recovery for some companies, the general insurance sector shows signs of stabilization.
Experts say that continued recovery in trade, coupled with strong marine insurance performance and steady investment returns, could drive further growth in the coming quarters.

Bank Asia plans to accelerate the expansion of retail and SME lending, strengthen its presence at home and abroad, widen its agent network, and continue leading digital innovation in the coming years. The private bank wants to expand SME and retail loans to at least 50 percent of the total portfolio within the next three years.

To achieve this, Bank Asia is crafting a business ecosystem through an integrated approach. At the same time, it is reinforcing its risk management and credit monitoring frameworks to ensure responsible expansion.

"We are focusing on strong, reputable clients with proven track records and solid business fundamentals while closely reviewing marginal accounts in our existing corporate portfolio and taking targeted actions to address early warning signals," said Sohail RK Hussain, managing director of Bank Asia PLC.

He shared the plan in an interview with The Daily Star, marking the 26th anniversary of the bank. It began operations on November 27, 1999.

Sohail RK Hussain
Hussain, who led two leading private commercial banks prior to joining Bank Asia, said the lender has tightened the alignment between facility approvals and the borrower's business fundamentals, and placed greater emphasis on post-disbursement monitoring to ensure credit is used as intended.

"Ultimately, our objective is clear: to support sectors with genuine growth potential while safeguarding asset quality and maintaining a well-balanced, resilient loan portfolio," he said.

As of September 2025, Bank Asia's loans and advances stood at Tk 28,908 crore, while deposits and other accounts totalled Tk 44,615 crore, according to its quarterly report.

The private commercial bank logged Tk 351 crore in net profit in the January-September period of the current financial year, surpassing its full-year earnings in 2024. The profit surge was driven by stronger treasury operations, improved cost efficiency, lower tax expenses, and a strategic shift in lending and digital priorities.

Hussain said the bank aims to position itself among Bangladesh's top two or three banks within the next three to five years-- not only in size and profitability but also in efficiency, asset quality, governance, capital strength, sustainability, and inclusion.

The bank is making a "deliberate strategic shift" towards SME and retail lending, targeting these segments to account for at least half of its total loans within the next three years. He said these groups offer more sustainable long-term growth and a more diversified risk profile.

To support this transition, the lender is strengthening its market positioning, redesigning products around customer needs, restructuring teams, and enhancing internal delivery channels.

"We plan to further expand our presence both at home and abroad through new branches, agent networks, and overseas offices, while continuing to lead in innovation and digital transformation."

He said promoting financial inclusion, gender-sensitive finance, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices will continue to be at the heart of its operations.

"In essence, Bank Asia aspires to be a technology-driven, customer-centric, sustainable, well-governed, and inclusive financial institution, creating lasting value for all stakeholders."

Hussain said the lender will continue to expand its agent banking and micro merchant networks across the country, with a strong focus on rural areas.

Bank Asia has established an agent banking network spanning 64 districts across the country, with more than 5,000 agent outlets, ensuring convenient access to banking services in remote and underserved areas.

To further extend the service to the doorstep of customers, it has innovated the micro merchant channel and onboarded 28,800-plus micro merchants to date, he added.

"Our substantial rural presence -- 89 percent rural agents, 90 percent rural accounts, 83 percent rural deposits, 85 percent rural loans, and 64 percent female account ownership -- demonstrates our dedication to financial inclusion through agent banking," he said.

Some 580 agent outlets are owned by women.

"We plan to open more rural branches and sub-branches and introduce tailored deposit products, as well as small, micro, and nano loan facilities for CMSE and agricultural customers," he said. "We are also digitising lending, account opening, and remittance processes and developing value-based products such as an insurance-linked remittance product."

Digital banking has become central to Bank Asia's growth strategy. More than 70 percent of card and retail transactions are now digital, and the Bank Asia SmartApp has become the primary banking channel for many customers, he added.

In the interview, Hussain also spoke about challenges of the financial sector. To him, weak governance remains one of the most critical concerns. "Over the years, lax oversight, undue influences, political interference, and poor risk management practices have weakened the health of many banks and financial institutions.

"Secondly, past lenient loan classification and generous rescheduling policies allowed banks to understate the true extent of their non-performing loans. With the central bank tightening regulations under the interim government, the real picture has now come to light," he said.

Hussain also spoke about the increased non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of his own bank.

He said NPLs at Bank Asia crossed double digits but said the bank maintains a strong provisioning buffer. Its loan-loss provisions stand at Tk 3,679 crore, and provision coverage has improved to 86.39 percent.

"The rise in NPLs is largely due to the tough economic environment-customers have struggled with the prolonged domestic slowdown as well as external shocks such as Covid-19 and recent geopolitical unrest. The stricter loan classification rules introduced on April 1, 2025, also contributed to the temporary spike."

He said the bank has taken a disciplined approach.

"We avoided arbitrary rescheduling, instead insisting on equity injection, additional collateral, and proper repayment plans. We are also using legal measures where necessary, including filing cases and securing asset attachments. With these corrective actions underway, we expect our NPL ratio to decline and our loan book to be significantly cleaner by next year."

Business enterprises have suggested on-the-spot inspections of companies willing to go public to assess whether their financial and operational strength is sufficient to protect shareholders' interests.

The proposal came at a meeting held on Wednesday at the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), convened to discuss the revised public issue rules that are yet to be finalised. Owners of large business groups, including Meghna, DBL, AkijBashir, PHP, Incepta, City, Electromart and Fair, attended the meeting.

They made the proposal while insisting that companies they own would not be listed unless proper valuation is ensured.

City Group Director Reza Uddin Ahmed said banks and foreign lenders visit local companies before deciding to disburse loans. They also gather information on their own about companies' operations to ensure their ability to repay.

"The securities regulator should also have an inspection team to visit companies that are willing to go public," a source quoted Mr Ahmed as saying at the meeting.

In the last two years, inspection teams of the stock exchanges have visited factories of poorly performing listed entities and found a significant number of them closed.

Mr Ahmed said, "There is no point in any visit after listing and the closure of operations. So, an inspection [before listing] would help the regulator assess whether shareholders' interests will be secured after the company's listing."

The market watchdog welcomed the proposal. "It's really a good proposal that made us pleased," said BSEC spokesperson Md Abul Kalam Azad.

The proposed public issue rules state that peer companies within the same industry should be taken into account to determine the relative valuation of an entity willing to go public.

Under the relative valuation method, the indicative price or offer price is to be justified by the industry P/E ratio. In the absence of an industry P/E ratio, the market P/E ratio shall be considered.

In that case, the ratio shall be the average of the industry P/E or market P/E over the last 12 months, whichever is lower.

At the meeting, a representative from Incepta Group said the industry P/E ratio would not ensure proper valuation of companies that have advanced further than their peers.

As per the existing rules, a listed company is allowed to use 30 per cent of IPO (initial public offering) proceeds for loan repayment.

However, the revised rules forbid repayment of bank loans with IPO funds altogether.

Meeting participants said mature companies do not require capital for business expansion. Instead, they would like to reduce the burden of interest payments using IPO proceeds.

The business leaders also requested the regulator to reduce the required number of indicative prices from 75, as stipulated under the revised rules.

Most eligible investors (EIs), such as banks and financial institutions, are currently not in a position to bid for primary shares due to capital shortages. As a result, companies seeking listing would not be able to collect indicative prices from as many EIs.

"If the proposed number of EIs is not reduced, many companies may adopt unfair means," said a representative of a business group.

At the meeting, business representatives also blamed corrupt auditors for fictitious balance sheets.

Although the securities regulator does not accept audit reports unless they are prepared by auditors on its approved list, window-dressed financial reports remain common.

At present, 54 audit firms are approved by the regulator to audit companies.

One meeting participant urged the regulator to cleanse the list by dropping firms found to be engaged in illegal practices.

"The BSEC has been receiving opinions from all stakeholders. The revised public issue rules will be finalised by evaluating their opinions," said the BSEC spokesperson.

BSEC Chief Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, Commissioner Farzana Lalarukh, Meghna Group Chairman Mostafa Kamal, DBL Group Vice-Chairman Mohammed Abdur Rahim (Feroz), AkijBashir Group Finance Director Mohammad Zahid Hossain, PHP Family Senior Executive Director Mostafa Zamal Hossain, and Incepta Pharmaceuticals Executive Director Nazmul Huda, among others, were present at the meeting.

The regulator will hold a final meeting today with representatives of regulatory bodies, including the central bank, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), brokers and dealers, before finalising the revised rules.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange PLC (DSE) today (Wednesday) inaugurated the “Regulatory Submission Module and CSE Onboarding” within its Smart Submission System (SSS) at the Multipurpose Hall of DSE Tower in the city.

This development marks a significant milestone in the digital transformation of Bangladesh's capital market, BSS reports citing a press release.

The SSS, which was developed using the DSE's own technological capabilities under the guidance and supervision of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), initially launched successfully on February 12, 2024.

The system creates opportunities for the smooth, secure, and real-time submission of documents and publications in the capital market.

The formal inauguration event was presided over by DSE Chairman Mominul Islam, with BSEC Commissioner Md. Saifuddin, CFA, attending as the chief guest. The event was attended by managing directors, company secretaries, and chief financial officers of listed companies.

The new module and DSE onboarding are considered the next phase of DSE’s digital capability and a continuation of its journey towards full digital transformation.

DSE Chairman Mominul Islam emphasized that this is a historic day for the capital market, as it achieves a crucial milestone in strengthening digital connectivity with stakeholders.

Starting immediately, price sensitive information, regulatory reports, financial statements, and necessary documents can be submitted entirely through the digital platform, and the method of hard copy submission has been completely canceled.

Mohammad Asadur Rahman FCS, DSE's Chief Operating Officer (COP) and Acting Managing Director, stated that this system allows listed companies and market-related stakeholders to submit documents online directly from their offices, eliminating the need to submit physical documents.

“This is expected to increase efficiency, transparency, and dynamism in market operations. The core objective of this digitalization is to reduce official complexities and the need for frequent visits for issuers,” he added.

Md. Kaysar Hamid, Executive Committee Member of BAPLC, noted that for a long time, companies suffered from the issues of manual and dual submissions (via email and hard copy), and the joint launch of this digital platform by DSE and CSE makes the submission process timely and transparent.

He added that the new system reduces the risk of typographical or data errors and increases accountability.

Dr. Md. Asifur Rahman, DSE’s Chief Technology Officer, highlighted that the second phase of the DSE Smart Submission System is a critical milestone in digital transformation, acting as a single platform for stakeholders to submit documents and reducing the complexity and errors of manual processes.

The system was developed using the Agile Scrum methodology, employing technologies such as Java multi-tier architecture, Spring Boot, JavaScript, PostgreSQL, and PowerBI, he added.

BSEC Commissioner Md. Saifuddin stated that the digital platform aims to ensure the easy, transparent, and standardized availability of market-related financial information, which will improve the efficiency of information usage by regulators, auditors, and other stakeholders.

“The initiative was begun through a partnership with a Chinese consortium, adopting the concept of BPM-based workflow automation. Two DSE personnel completed 15 days of training at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and used that experience to develop the local system with the help of the in-house team,” he added.

Md. Sayed Kutub, Additional Secretary of the Insurance and Capital Market Wings of the Ministry of Finance, emphasized that while the capital market is still lagging in digitalization, this new initiative is a crucial start to overcome that lag.

He stressed that transparency and a reliable flow of information are essential for rebuilding investor confidence, and digital platforms like this will help restore that confidence.

Looking ahead, DSE anticipated that the SSS will be conducive to the future implementation of XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) in Bangladesh.

The BSEC Commissioner noted that financial data submission will not be limited to PDFs; DSE will move towards AI-readable and machine-readable data formats based on XBRL, forming the foundation for an infrastructure of AI-readable financial information that will expand market research, analysis, and data intelligence locally and globally.

Banks in Bangladesh gasp under a burden of bad loans as the aggregate volume makes a quantum leap by over Tk 2.24 trillion in just six months to a record high until September.

As per latest-available data until last September, with the fast rise in non-performing loans (NPLs), the outstanding of the classified loans in the country's banking system balloons over Tk 6.44 trillion, accounting for 35.73 per cent of the entire loans worth Tk 18.04 trillion disbursed by the commercial banks.

In fact, the burden of NPLs in banks has more than doubled in just a year as the figure was Tk 2.85 trillion until September 2024 and the ratio 16.93 per cent.

The mammoth growth in bad loans has been posing multipronged strains for the banking industry with serious disruptions done to their liquidity management. As matter of fact, the banks' profitability is also dented as they have to maintain a portion of funds for NPL provisioning.

Officials and bankers say the industry has witnessed a quantum leap in the volume of classified loans since March this year when the central bank revised overdue-status-counting system for term lending to a curtailed tenure of three months from previous six months.

The gross volume of NPL is almost double the total tax revenues worth Tk 3.71 trillion collected by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in FY'25

According to central bank statistics, the share of classified loans rose to 35.73 per cent of the total outstanding loans during the period under review from 16.93 per cent a year before.

In terms of net calculations, the volume of classified loans stands at Tk 4.16 trillion by the end of September last and the ratio is 26.40 per cent. By June-end, the net volume of classified loans and ratio were Tk 3.88 trillion and 25.08 per cent respectively.

Regarding net NPL calculation, the Bangladesh Bank states that the net NPL method gives a clearer picture of loan defaults. It works by deducting provisions and suspended interest from gross figures, showing only the part of loans still uncovered.

In practice, net NPL is calculated by taking bad loans, deducting the amounts already set aside and dividing by total loans after the same deductions. This highlights the share of loans that remain truly at risk.

For example, if Tk 1.0 billion in loans is classified as bad, with Tk 100 million in suspended interest and Tk 400 million in provisions, the uncovered portion is Tk 500 million. Against total loans of Tk 10 billion, the net NPL ratio comes to 5.26 per cent.

The central bank says this arithmetic is important because it identifies actual risk, provides a more accurate picture of financial health, and shows banks' capacity to absorb losses.

Such faster NPL buildups in banks cause serious concerns to bankers who fear further pressure on their liquidity situation in the months ahead.

Managing director of Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC Mosleh Uddin Ahmed says the banking regulator has been applying RBS (risk-based supervision) tools. Under the system, the banks need to provide some 200 data, which are inter-connected.

"There is no scope for banks to keep something under the carpet anymore. So, the real picture of NPL in banks started getting exposed in the changed context now," says the seasoned banker.

Such negative things started affecting people's trust on the banking industry. "Can we really absorb such pressure in a short span of time? I think it would be better if the banks are allowed some time to get corrected gradually," he adds.

Managing director and chief executive director (CEO) of Modhumoti Bank PLC Md. Shafiul Azam says many banks did not disclose real picture of the burden. But now things like NPL-counting method changed. So banks have no other option but to disclose everything.

On the other hand, the experienced banker says, there are many borrowers who pass through difficulties because of persisting economic sluggishness, which is also contributing to the rise in classified loans in banks.

"And it has badly been affecting banks' profit earnings, liquidity management and image locally and globally," he notes.

Managing Director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank (MTB) PLC Syed Mahbubur Rahman thinks the mammoth NPL growth is not something unexpected and surprising.

But, the central bank took various steps like policy support aimed at restoring the struggling business and financial operations of both classified and unclassified borrowers.

"I think such facility will help lessen the burden in the coming days," the experienced banker says.

Fortune Shoes Limited has recommended a 0.50% cash dividend, equivalent to 5 paisa per share, for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors, for the financial year 2024–25 (FY25). The decision, approved at the company's board meeting on Monday, marks a lower payout compared to the previous fiscal year, when a 1% cash dividend was distributed.

Despite the modest dividend, the company's share price rallied strongly in early trading today (25 November) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Fortune Shoes shares surged by 16% during the first half of the session as investors reacted to the announcement. However, the momentum tapered off later in the day, and the stock closed at Tk13.80, up 4.55% from the previous close.

The annual general meeting (AGM) to approve the dividend, audited financials, and other agenda items has been scheduled for 30 December. The record date for shareholders eligible to attend has been set for 15 December.

Fortune Shoes reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.11 for FY25, a significant drop from Tk0.50 recorded in the previous year. The company's net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk14.70 at the end of the fiscal year.

According to the company, the steep decline in profitability resulted from rising financial and operational pressures. Manufacturing costs and finance costs escalated due to major external factors, substantially squeezing margins.

The company further reported reduced income from non-core operations, heightened customer claims, and losses incurred on several export orders, factors that collectively dragged down earnings during the year.

Established in March 2010, Fortune Shoes began commercial operations in September 2011 as a fully export-oriented manufacturer. It produces a wide range of footwear and exports to foreign markets. The company sources essential raw materials from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.

As of 31 October 2025, sponsors and directors held a combined 30.93% stake, institutional investors accounted for 16.47%, and general shareholders owned 52.60% of the company.

China's new coal plant permits for 2025 are on track to fall to a four-year low, a new Greenpeace analysis showed yesterday (25 November), indicating that growing use of renewables is cutting into demand for new coal plants.

China permitted 41.8 gigawatts (GW) of new coal plant capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, Greenpeace found. If the current pace continues, 2025 permits would fall to the lowest level since 2021.

The approvals so far in 2025 represent an estimated 171.5 billion yuan to 181.5 billion yuan ($24.2 billion to $25.6 billion) in new coal investment, 85% of which belongs to state-owned enterprises, according to Greenpeace.

China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Newly permitted coal plant capacity during China's 14th five-year plan (gigawatts). Source: Greenpeace East Asia
Newly permitted coal plant capacity during China's 14th five-year plan (gigawatts). Source: Greenpeace East Asia

"As the share of renewable energy generation increases, China's additional electricity demand can now be fully met by wind and solar power," said Greenpeace East Asia's climate and energy project manager Gao Yuhe.

"Expectations for coal power generation and profitability have also declined, leading to a drop in approval volumes."

China saw a spike in coal plant permits during 2022 to 2023, after coal and power shortages around that time spooked regulators.

But permits dropped off from 2024 after the crisis eased, the growing renewables fleet started to cover more of the incremental demand, and shortages turned to oversupply.

However, given the earlier surge, total permits for the 2020 to 2025 five-year plan period are already more than twice the total for the previous five years.

There may also be a temporal factor at play given that 2025 is the last year of the current five-year plan and many projects were already approved earlier in the five-year period, according to Gao.

Gao said that if China can continue advancing the construction of its 'new power system' - a term it uses to describe the increasing use of renewables with coal taking on more of a supporting role - then permitting rates could dip even lower in the coming five years, compared to 2025.

China committed in 2021 to phase down its coal consumption during the 2026-2030 period, but China's new climate goals for 2035, released in September, did not put forward new targets for coal.

($1 = 7.0954 Chinese yuan renminbi)

India's Russian oil imports are set to hit their lowest in at least three years in December, down from multi-month highs in November, as refiners turned to alternatives to avoid breaching Western sanctions, trade and refining sources said.

Britain, the European Union and the United States have tightened sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, with Washington's latest measures targeting top Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

Buyers of Russian oil had until November 21 to wind down dealings with the two firms.

Separately, the EU has set a January 21 deadline after which it will decline fuel from refineries that handled Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.

BANK SCRUTINY LEADS TO CAUTION

Bank scrutiny following the latest US sanctions has made Indian state refiners "extremely cautious", one of the refining sources said, adding that India is likely to get 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December.

These include imports by Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy and delivery of some November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries, the source added, citing preliminary lifting plans of Indian companies.

This month, India is expected to receive 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude, provisional data from Kpler showed. In October it imported 1.65 million bpd of Russian oil, up 2% from September, data from trade sources shows.

"Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the US sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026," said a trade source.

The sources sought anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to media.

MOST INDIAN REFINERS HALT RUSSIAN BUYS

Most Indian refiners, such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have stopped buying Russian oil.

State-run Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp have said they will buy only from the non-sanctioned entities.

Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, is exclusively processing Russian oil after other suppliers pulled back following British and EU sanctions.

Reliance Industries Ltd has said it loaded Russian oil cargoes "precommitted" as of October 22, and will process any parcel arriving after November 20 at its refinery that is geared to produce fuels for the local market.

Reliance, the operator of the world's biggest refining complex, has two refineries with one catering exclusively to export markets.

The share of US oil in India's oil imports in October surged to its highest since June 2024 as refiners tapped an arbitrage window.

India is also under pressure to buy more US energy after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, citing New Delhi's buying of Russian oil.

Bangladesh's overall economic activities remained largely subdued in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (FY26), weighed down by lingering political uncertainties and a contractionary monetary policy that has sharply dampened investment appetite.

In its latest Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh (July–September 2025), released today (25 November), the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) depicted an economy struggling with fading business confidence.

The most alarming sign of stagnation is private sector credit growth, which dropped to a historic low of 6.29% in September 2025, far below the Bangladesh Bank's 7.20% target for December.

Market analysts note that overall economic activities have remained subdued in the aftermath of political uncertainties, leading to weaker demand and reduced investment, the chamber noted in its executive summary.

The country's oldest trade chamber highlighted that the central bank's tight monetary and fiscal stance, in place since August last year, has further restricted domestic demand. With the policy rate (repo) held at 10.00% to fight inflation, borrowing costs have risen, discouraging businesses from taking loans for expansion.

This weakness is reflected in the broader GDP data. Citing Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) figures, the report said GDP growth slowed to 3.35% in the fourth quarter of FY25, down from 4.86% in the previous quarter.

Industrial performance also deteriorated. The industry sector posted a lower growth of 4.10% in the final quarter of FY25, compared to 6.91% earlier. Manufacturing growth nearly halved, falling to 4.64% from 7.51%.

Government development spending also lagged, with the Annual Development Programme achieving only a 5.09% implementation rate in the July–September quarter, hampered by bureaucratic delays following the political transition.

External sector shows signs of stability

Despite the gloomy domestic outlook, the MCCI report identified stabilising trends in the external sector. Improvements in exports, imports, and remittances helped shore up foreign currency reserves.

Remittance inflows surged 15.95% year-on-year to $7.59 billion in Q1 FY26, while export earnings grew 5.25%, led by knitwear and woven garments. The foreign exchange market also steadied, with the Taka appreciating 0.79% against the US dollar between June and September 2025.

Looking ahead to the second quarter (October–December), the chamber remained cautious.

Although inflation eased to 8.36% in September, the MCCI warned that economic recovery will remain fragile as long as political uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs persist.

The Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) has cancelled the licences of 16 Internet Service Providers (ISPs) after the companies failed to renew their permissions despite the expiry of their validity periods.

The decision was announced in an official notice issued on 5 November, signed by Lt Col Syed Md Tawfiq-ul-Islam, director of the BTRC's Licensing Division.

According to the circular, all 16 ISPs, operating across various upazilas and metropolitan areas, had reached the end of their authorised terms but did not submit renewal applications within the stipulated timeframe.

The notice stated that the cancellations were made following due legal procedures and after assessing each operator's compliance status.

List of cancelled ISPs

The cancelled licenses cover ISPs operating in various Upazilas and metropolitan zones of Bangladesh.

The cancelled IPSs are 3G Point Internet (Fatullah), Amar Online BD (South Keraniganj), Bani Networks Ltd (Gulshan & Banani units), BD Solution Online (Khilgaon), Durend Network & Agro (Shanthia), Friends Network (Sarankhola), Desh BD Technologies (Kafrul), Neuron Institution of Information Technology (Jibannagar, Damurhuda, Chuadanga sadar), Online Cable Network Connection (Tongi West), Search Net (Adabor), Sky Fiber Communications (Bangshal), Smart Net (Kamrangirchar), SS Networks (Kushtia Sadar).

Some ISPs, such as Bani Networks Ltd and Neuron Institution of Information Technology, had multiple licenses cancelled.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

Legal consequences for operators

The BTRC warned that any telecommunications or internet-related activities under a cancelled licence will now be deemed illegal.

"Any activities carried out under a cancelled licence will be considered illegal and punishable under the Bangladesh Telecommunication (Amendment) Act, 2010," the circular said.

Such activities include operating network infrastructure, providing services to customers, or conducting any telecom-related business in the affected areas.

The cancelled ISPs have also been instructed to return their original licence certificates to the commission. Additionally, BTRC's finance, accounts and revenue divisions have been directed to recover any outstanding dues from the operators within 30 working days.

Implications

Officials said the cancellation drive underscores BTRC's focus on regulatory compliance and accountability within the telecom sector.

By terminating licences of service providers that failed to fulfil mandatory renewal obligations, the BTRC aims to strengthen oversight, maintain service standards, and ensure lawful operation of all ISPs serving local communities, said an official.

Defaulted loans in the country's banking sector reached 34.6 percent of all disbursed credit till June this year, the highest level since 2000, exposing the fragile state of the banking system and renewing concerns about financial governance.

The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 24.6 percent in March this year. A year earlier in June, it was only 12.2 percent, according to a quarterly report by the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

At the end of June this year, total loans and advances amounted to Tk 17,34,200 crore. Of this, Tk 5,99,964 crore had turned sour.

Although the central bank did not mention the bad loan amount directly, its quarterly estimates show that defaulted loans made up 34.6 percent of all disbursed credit.

Bad loans stood at Tk 2,11,391 crore in June last year. This means defaults rose by Tk 3,88,573 crore within twelve months.

BB officials said distressed assets, a term that covers bad loans, written off loans, rescheduled loans, and loans locked in money loan court, could cross Tk 10,00,000 crore.

According to them, the sharp rise in bad loans points to widespread irregularities, scams, and weak oversight throughout the 16-year Awami League regime.

In 1999, bad loans in the banking sector stood at a record 41.1 percent, the highest on record. Since then, the ratio began to decline and fell to 6.1 percent in 2011. After that, the NPL ratio started rising again.

Several shariah-based banks linked to S Alam Group, a business conglomerate long surrounded by controversy, have seen sharp increases in defaulted loans, according to BB officials.

They also said politically connected businesses with ties to the previous ruling party influenced lending decisions in a number of banks.

Big borrowers, such as S Alam Group and Beximco Group, defaulted on a large scale after the fall of the Awami League government in August last year. This contributed to an unprecedented jump in defaults across the sector.

"Nearly 35 percent of loans are now classified as non-performing, a level that has far-reaching effects," said Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM).

He said that when defaulted loans rise, banks earn less as they have to set aside larger provisions. This leads to the erosion of their capital base.

"As a result, foreign investors think twice, and international banks raise transaction charges," Choudhury said.

"The country must come out of this situation. Exemplary punishment should be ensured for loan defaulters."

He also said the higher figure partly reflects the central bank's decision to classify loans in line with international standards.

State-owned banks held about Tk 1,52,755 crore in bad loans in June, or 44.6 percent of their total credit, shows the BB report.

Private commercial banks had around
Tk 4,25,660 crore in NPLs, equal to 32.9 percent of their portfolios. Specialised banks reported Tk 19,305 crore in bad debts, or 39 percent of their lending.

Foreign commercial banks fared better, with Tk 2,952 crore in defaults, equal to 6.1 percent of their loans, according to the BB report.

Bad loans also rose sharply in half a dozen Islamic banks, including Islami Bank Bangladesh, due to massive loan irregularities during the previous regime.

Md Omar Faruk Khan, managing director and CEO of Islami Bank Bangladesh, said that the bank is stepping up efforts for loan recovery through legal channels.

"Besides, we are signing agreements with international legal firms to recover foreign assets. Our main target now is recovery," he told The Daily Star.

The commercial lender is focusing on cash recovery, Khan said, while rescheduling loans for industries that have been genuinely affected.

"Our target is to bring down non-performing loans from 50 percent to 35 percent," he said.

The CEO added that loan recovery is proving difficult as business activities slow ahead of the national elections slated for February next year.

The Banking Regulation and Policy Department (BRPD) of the central bank usually compiles classified loan data. However, it has not produced the figures for the June quarter.

Instead, the Statistics Department of BB gathered information directly from banks and prepared the report, which may lead to differences between the two sets of data.

Bangladesh reduced poverty significantly between 2010 and 2022, lifting 34 million people out of poverty while improving living standards and access to essential services such as electricity, education and sanitation.

However, since 2016, the pace of poverty reduction has slowed and economic growth has become less inclusive, says a new report by the World Bank launched today.

The report, Bangladesh Poverty and Equity Assessment 2025, finds that extreme poverty fell from 12.2 percent to 5.6 percent and moderate poverty dropped from 37.1 percent to 18.7 percent between 2010 and 2022.

Yet nearly 62 million people — about one-third of the population — remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty if faced with illness, a natural disaster or another unexpected shock.

After 2016, Bangladesh's economic growth pattern shifted, becoming less inclusive, and income inequality rose as income growth benefited wealthier families more.

Rural areas led poverty reduction, with agriculture being a key driver. However, the rate of poverty reduction was much slower in urban areas. By 2022, one in four poor Bangladeshis lived in a city.

"For years, Bangladesh has been known for its success in poverty reduction. But with a changing global context, severe climate vulnerabilities and a slower rate of job creation, labour income has weakened," said Jean Pesme, World Bank Division Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

"A business-as-usual approach will not accelerate poverty reduction. The fastest path to reducing poverty and ensuring the dignity of people is through job creation, particularly for youth, women and vulnerable populations. A pro-poor, climate-resilient and job-centric strategy will be essential to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth."

Job creation stagnated in the manufacturing sector and shifted to less productive sectors, hitting women and youth the hardest.

One in five young women remains unemployed, while one in four educated young women is without a job.

In urban areas, job creation stagnated outside Dhaka, and labour participation fell, particularly among women. Half of all youth aged between 15 and 29 work in low-paying jobs, suggesting a skills mismatch.

For millions of Bangladeshis, both international and domestic migration have proved to be pathways out of poverty. Remittances helped reduce poverty and benefited poorer households most. However, domestic migrant workers suffer from poor living conditions in congested urban settlements, while international migration remains limited to those who are better off due to the high costs involved.

Although Bangladesh has expanded its social assistance programmes, they remain inefficient and poorly targeted.

In 2022, around 35 percent of the richest families received social protection benefits, while half of the poorest families did not.

Moreover, subsidies are often misdirected, with wealthier households receiving the bulk of the benefits from electricity, fuel and fertiliser subsidies.

The latest poverty assessment identifies four key policy areas to help Bangladesh reduce poverty and narrow inequality: strengthening the foundations for productive jobs; creating more and better jobs for the poor and vulnerable; enabling markets that work for the poor by investing in modern processing and supportive business regulations; and enhancing resilience through stronger fiscal policy and effective, better-targeted social protection programmes.

"Bangladesh has reduced regional disparities, particularly the East–West divide. But climate risks are exacerbating spatial disparities, particularly between rural and urban areas," said Sergio Olivieri, World Bank Senior Economist and report co-author.

"Our poverty assessment shows that by adopting innovative policies, Bangladesh can restore and accelerate the pace of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity by improving connectivity, creating quality urban jobs, facilitating pro-poor value chains in agriculture and making social protection effective."

Nearly one-third of combine harvesters (CHs) distributed under high government subsidy could not be located, highlighting irregularities in the distribution of the farm machinery, according to a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The study assessed the third phase of the government's Agricultural Mechanisation Support Programme, which began in 2020 with a Tk 1,595 crore budget and aimed to distribute subsidised agricultural machinery — particularly combine harvesters — to tackle labour shortages and boost crop yields.

Over 35,000 machines, including nearly 9,000 CHs, were distributed based on subsidies of up to 70 percent for certain lagging-behind regions under the scheme.

A total of 552 CHs were recorded as distributed by the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE). Of these, 28 percent could not be found, according to the paper presented at a policy dialogue on agricultural mechanisation, jointly organised by IFPRI and Centro International de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo (CIMMYT), with support from CGIAR and the Gates Foundation, at the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) in Dhaka today.

In many cases, recipients failed to produce proof of ownership, the study said, citing field verification. More than a quarter of the machines were registered under names that did not match the actual users, suggesting manipulation.

IFPRI researchers found 57 CHs in use that were not listed in the DAE's database at all, indicating untracked or informal distribution channels operating outside government oversight.

The report said 14 percent of surveyed applicants admitted to paying unofficial fees averaging Tk 59,000 to local DAE officers or intermediaries to expedite or secure approval.

"These informal payments reflect a deeper issue of discretionary power and lack of transparency in how subsidies are distributed," the report stated.

Such rent-seeking behaviour not only increases costs for legitimate applicants but also distorts the allocation process, favouring those with influence or resources.

The programme's stated goal was to support mechanisation in labour-scarce and climate-vulnerable areas. However, IFPRI's data-driven geospatial analysis found otherwise.

Using models that combined factors such as crop yield gaps, labour availability, and climate risk, the researchers identified high-priority districts — many in the northwest and central regions — that remain underserved. Conversely, areas with lower mechanisation demand often received more machines.

"This misallocation suggests a disconnect between central planning and local realities," the report concluded.

Although suppliers were expected to offer after-sales service, only 37 percent of CH owners received warranty documents, and just 21 percent received any training on how to operate their machines.

The report said 97 percent of operators reported machine downtime averaging 12 days annually — roughly 17 percent of their total service time. The leading cause: shortages of spare parts and trained mechanics.

"This directly impacts service quality and the financial sustainability of MSPs," said an industry analyst.

At the launch of the World Bank's report, Bangladesh Poverty and Equity Assessment 2025, the country's leading economists delivered a stark warning: Bangladesh is entering a phase where long-held assumptions about growth, jobs, and poverty no longer hold.

They said the World Bank's findings reflect a deeper national concern – growth is becoming less inclusive, repeated shocks have eroded earlier gains, and the institutional foundations of poverty reduction are weakening.

'Mega projects boost GDP but fail to create jobs, reduce poverty'

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and chief guest at the WB report's launch at a Dhaka hotel yesterday, said the findings can be understood only by examining three distinct political-economic periods: 2010-16, 2016-22 and 2022-25.

After 2016, governance incentives shifted, rule-based systems weakened, corruption incentives deepened, and inclusiveness eroded.
Hossain Zillur Rahman, Executive Chairman, PPRC

"The first period still reflected the old growth poverty reduction model, but after 2016, governance incentives shifted, rule-based systems weakened, corruption incentives deepened, and inclusiveness eroded.

"During this period, the government focused heavily on mega projects and headlines of growth. But it did not consider the implications for employment and poverty reduction. Mega projects have boosted growth, but that growth has not been inclusive," he added.

Citing the example of the Padma Bridge, he said the project did contribute to GDP growth, but it did not generate employment on a comparable scale. Its implementation relied heavily on technology, limiting job creation.

He warned that the 2022-25 period marks a real structural reversal, not a short-term disruption. Poverty has risen to around 27%, extreme poverty is climbing, and 2.1 million jobs were lost in late 2024 – 1.5 million of them women.

Agriculture's renewed prominence, he said, stems not from rural strength but from stagnation elsewhere: "We must ask whether rural dynamism reflects productivity or simply low-paid informal work."

He emphasised three state failures: corruption, everyday bureaucratic "hayrani", and weak security for women as critical barriers to inclusive growth.

"Education is expanding, yet not translating into human capital. Unless we solve this paradox, new skill programmes will only reinforce the existing mismatch," he added.

'Distorted data masked true poverty slowdown'

Speaking with TBS about the World Bank report, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said that while the report correctly notes a slowdown in poverty reduction after 2016, it fails to explain why. He said the key issue is that the "elasticity of poverty reduction to growth" dropped sharply because the growth data itself became distorted.

Although GDP growth appeared higher in 2016-2022 compared to 2010-16, poverty fell more slowly, largely due to manipulation of growth figures.
Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office

Although GDP growth appeared higher between 2016 and 2022 compared to 2010-16, poverty fell more slowly. According to him, this is largely due to statistical manipulation – growth figures were inflated in a "blatantly visible" way during this period, a point the report does not address.

Zahid noted that the World Bank's 2022 Country Economic Memorandum even raised questions about Bangladesh's growth statistics, but the new poverty report overlooks this critical factor.

He also linked the issue to a broader decline in democratic governance after 2014, arguing that with reduced electoral competition, the government sought legitimacy by showcasing mega projects and "mega statistics," including overstated GDP growth. These projects, he said, did little to raise labour incomes or industrial growth.

In reality, he concluded, actual growth weakened after 2016, but this was not reflected in official data, making the slowdown in poverty reduction unsurprising.

'Where are the jobs?'

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), raised a set of pointed questions on how Bangladesh can make economic growth more employment-rich and inclusive. Referring to the report's focus on strengthening foundations for productive jobs.

"Where are those better jobs?" he asked.

He argued that simply expanding access or enabling markets for the rural poor is insufficient without clarity on which markets can realistically generate large-scale employment.

Sattar noted that the domestic market, supported by a $460 billion GDP, cannot alone absorb the roughly 2 million new entrants to the labour force each year. Although around 1 million workers migrate abroad annually for temporary employment, easing some pressure, domestic job creation still remains constrained.

Agriculture, which employs 45% of the workforce, cannot be the source of high-quality, high-wage jobs, he said. "Wage employment is not available in agriculture. Wage employment comes from industry." Bangladesh, he stressed, is still in its industrialisation phase, not deindustrialisation and therefore must continue expanding its industrial base to generate jobs."

Drawing on three decades of experience since the 1990s, Sattar emphasised that Bangladesh's most inclusive growth periods came from integration with global markets. "If you want job creation, we have to continue industrialising with the global market in our region," he said.

He argued forcefully that Bangladesh must continue industrialising with global markets, warning that rising protectionism is undermining job creation.

"We have one of the most restrictive trade regimes in the world," he said.

He called for an open trade regime and stronger integration between rural and urban economies, an area where China and Vietnam have shown the way. Sattar concluded by commending the report's analytical strength but urged the inclusion of a sharper policy lens: "Growth will not be inclusive or job-creating unless our policies are more open than they are today."

'Poverty trends need deeper explanation, not just data'

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished Fellow at CPD, said the World Bank's report offers a strong analytical foundation but leaves critical poverty-related questions unanswered.

He welcomed its detailed mapping of structural drivers yet noted that the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022 was surprisingly silent on Covid-19, despite the pandemic's major economic shock.

Surveys by South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM), BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), PPRC and CPD had clearly shown a sharp though temporary rise in poverty during 2020-21, he reminded.

Mustafizur said any serious poverty assessment must account for the combined impacts of Covid, the Russia-Ukraine war, and three years of persistent inflation, which reshaped household welfare nationwide.

While agreeing that growth alone cannot reduce poverty, he argued that Bangladesh must confront the institutional and political-economic constraints behind slowing job creation and weakening inclusiveness. "These questions are critical," he said, urging deeper debate to ensure effective policy reform.

'Poverty assessment must address structural barriers'

Moderating the report launching event, Selim Raihan, executive director of SANEM, said that while the report presents a strong analysis of poverty drivers and structural vulnerabilities, it leaves several critical gaps.

His foremost concern was the absence of Covid-19 impacts in the 2022 BBS survey, which, he noted, portrayed poverty trends "as if there was no pandemic in the world." This omission stands in contrast to rapid surveys by SANEM, BIGD, PPRC, CPD and others that documented a clear spike in poverty during 2020-21.

Selim Raihan added that other major shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, prolonged price volatility, and three years of high inflation, must be integrated into any meaningful poverty narrative.

While endorsing the report's message that growth alone cannot reduce poverty, he stressed that Bangladesh must confront the institutional and political-economic constraints behind slowing poverty reduction and stagnant job creation. Without addressing these deeper issues, he warned, policy responses will remain incomplete.

Bangladesh's exports may get costlier to foreign buyers while imports cheaper as the local currency, taka, appears increasingly overvalued in the foreign-exchange basket in real terms.

Economists explain that this economic paradox appears for sluggish import demand, weak private-sector credit growth, and stubbornly higher inflation on the economy.

Bangladesh Bank's latest data show the real effective exchange rate (REER) climbed to 106.55 in October against 104.53 in September last or a month earlier. This REER rise signals that the local currency remains stronger than its equilibrium level.

Economists alert that the overvaluation could erode export competitiveness and disrupt the country's external balance if left unaddressed.

A key gauge of currency valuation against a basket of 15 major trading partners, covering more than 80 per cent of Bangladesh's external trade, the latest REER indicates that the taka is stronger than its equilibrium value.

A REER below 100 typically signals improved export competitiveness, while a reading above 100 points to a stronger domestic currency that makes exports less attractive and imports cheaper.

The REER is an index that indicates what the nominal exchange rate should be, as there is no other alternative benchmark to measure the equilibrium level of exchange rate of an economy. As a result, policymakers across the globe aim to keep the index close to 100.

Based on the September 2025 reading, the dollar's equilibrium rate should be around Tk130.04. Instead, it traded at Tk122.05, suggesting the taka was overvalued by about Tk7.99, according to Bangladesh Bank data released Monday.

People familiar with the matter at the central bank told the FE that the Bangladesh Bank stopped buying dollars, a move that could help tame the rising exchange-rate index.

They say the main reason behind the surge is the inflation differentials with peer economies, as inflation in competing countries remained much lower than in Bangladesh.

"The main reason is the inflation differential with peer economies," a senior central banker told the FE Tuesday.

Earlier since July, the central bank had bought US$2.0 billion through multiple market-intervention operations.

Private-sector credit growth narrowed to 6.29 per cent (y-o-y) in September 2025 compared to 9.02 per cent in September 2024.

"We don't want to have a big jump in depreciation so we are adopting strategies that cool the index," the banker adds.

Economists strike a note of caution that the overvaluation poses risks to the country's trade competitiveness, particularly for exporters.

"This is having a negative impact on export earnings," says Dr M. Masrur Reaz, Chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.

"We enjoyed a favourable position in recent past, but the situation is now becoming volatile."

Chief Economist at Bangladesh Bank Dr Akhtar Hossain says that higher index of REER is a bad thing for Bangladesh's economy as SME exporters might be impacted.

He notes that Bangladesh faces steep competition from many Asian economies, underscoring the need for a balanced real effective exchange rate or REER to support the economy.

He further says the central bank would take appropriate decisions in interest of the economy.

However, he mentions that the main culprit remains stubbornly high inflation, which may ease soon with the arrival of winter vegetables and Aman rice on the market.

China bought at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans in contracts signed since Tuesday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, extending a surge in buying after the recent thaw in US-China trade relations.

All cargoes are scheduled for January shipment from US Gulf Coast terminals and Pacific Northwest ports, the sources said.

One trader said 12 cargoes were bought, while the other estimated the volume at around 10 to 15 cargoes.

Unprecedented numbers of Americans are expected to hit stores this Black Friday, but they are likely to curtail their spending as they find fewer bargains from tariff-hit retailers.

Marking the biggest turnout ever for the five-day stretch between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, 186.9 million people will shop, up from 183.4 million last year, the National Retail Federation projects. But sales growth for the last two months of the year, crucial for retailers, is expected to slow.

"Everything seems to be way more expensive" at malls, said Kate Sanner, a New Yorker who runs an online aggregator for second-hand listings. Last year, Sanner, 33, spent around $500 on gifts, but this season she plans to trim her budget to $300, eschewing most Black Friday discounts for targeted deals on specific products.

Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the holiday window, which typically accounts for a third of annual profits. Retailers have launched early promotions to lock in sales: Walmart's began on November 14 and will run in three phases through December 1, with Walmart+ members getting early access. Amazon started its Black Friday deals week on Thursday, while Macy's has opened a dedicated Black Friday portal.

Sales in November and December - in physical stores and online – are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time, rising between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent, but are likely to grow at a slower pace than last year's 4.8 percent gain, NRF projections show.

SHOPPERS AVOID DIPPING INTO SAVINGS FOR PURCHASES

While the sticker shock alone could deter some buyers, others are budgeting for the increased costs of other necessities.

"Knowing that our healthcare premium bill is going to jump astronomically in 2026 ... all of our discretionary spending has dropped significantly," said Liz Sweeney, founder of marketing agency Dogwood Solutions, who lives in Boise, Idaho.

"While we spent close to $2,000 on gifts in 2024, our 2025 budget is $750," said 52-year-old Sweeney, who is skipping electronics and big buys this year, sticking to shoes, books and kitchenware.

Shoppers still have plenty in the bank, with households across all income levels holding more deposits than they did in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, November data from Bank of America data shows. Consumers were also not using a significant portion of their savings, the data showed.

"Consumers are sentimentally weak and fundamentally sound," said Mark Mathews, the NRF's chief economist. "US household balance sheets are still strong."

The federation estimates average spending on gifts and seasonal items such as decorations, cards, food and candy will reach $890 per person, slightly less than last year's $902. Nearly two-thirds of the 8,427 consumers polled say they will wait for Thanksgiving weekend deals, up from 59 percent in 2024, with older shoppers driving the trend.

'DEFINITELY SEEN FEWER PROMOTIONS'

"Knowing when is the right time to buy this year is more difficult," said Edgar Dworsky, founder of Consumer World, who tracks holiday pricing. "With so many pre-Black Friday sales, there are no assurances the same deals will be offered again on the real Black Friday or that popular items will still be in stock."

Historically, Dworsky said, stores such as Kohl's, JC Penney and Macy's offered small kitchen appliances for as little as $5 after come combination of sales prices, percentage-off coupons and mail-in rebates, but many of those discounts have disappeared. Kohl's, for instance, is offering toasters, blenders, and electric frying pans for $9.99 without a rebate but with a coupon for 15 percent off this year, he said.

"I've definitely seen fewer promotions this year both in-store and online. The first two weeks of November usually bring some activity — though in recent years the discounts haven't been very deep — but this year there's been very little and much more full price," said Jessica Ramirez, who runs brand consultancy the Consumer Collective.

"When promotions do show up, they're spot promotions, meaning they aren't set and don't last long," she added.

While some retailers appear to be pulling back on promotions, Walmart is teasing some aggressive price cuts for Black Friday.

Some of Walmart's featured deals include an 85-inch TCL Roku TV, originally priced at $678, marked down to $498 for Black Friday, according to a Reuters review of the retailer's website. Last year, Walmart highlighted a $120 discount on a 75-inch Vizio TV. This year's lineup also features a Blackstone outdoor grill offered at $157, reduced from its list price of $224.

To modernise the capital market, the country's two bourses – Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) – are set to launch an automated Smart Submission System (SSS) today to receive all regulatory and corporate filings from listed companies on a single digital platform.

Eliminate manual submissions of hard-copy documents, the SSS aims to improve operational efficiency, ensure faster and more accurate information dissemination, mitigate risks, and improve investor experience.

Previously, in February 2024, the DSE alone launched a smart data and document submission system for price-sensitive information, developed by the exchange itself, to ease hassles and speed up the disclosure submission process.

Now, the CSE will join the DSE in the online system.

In the current system, all listed companies must submit regulatory information to both bourses separately in hard copy. They also need to send corporate information – quarterly, annually, and other material updates affecting financials – within 30 minutes of a board meeting via email or fax.

Under the digital system, each listed firm will have a unique user ID and password provided by the bourses, using which they can log in to the system and submit all the required documents online. If there are any additional requirements, the bourse will ask the company to submit the documents through the online system.

Commenting on the new system, a DSE official said that the Smart Submission System will reduce the hassle of bourses and companies alike.

This will make it easier for the bourse to monitor whether companies are providing accurate and timely information. Currently, manual submissions increase the risk of errors. The new system eliminates manual entry, reducing mistakes and enabling faster access to information, he added.
Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

Companies welcome the initiative

Officials of listed firms – who handle communication with the bourses regarding corporate information – welcomed the move, calling it a timely initiative if implemented properly.

At least three company secretaries, speaking anonymously, said the previous DSE platform for price-sensitive information was cumbersome, requiring hard copy submissions despite online filings, making the process costly and time-consuming.

In August, the DSE submitted a proposal to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) to automate submissions via its Smart Submission System (SSS). The letter noted that manual and email-based dissemination of PSIs and corporate disclosures poses risks of human error, delays, and misplacement.

Regional stock exchanges in India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan already use fully automated, issuer-led systems.

The proposal recommends mandating the SSS for issuers, discontinuing email/fax submissions by a set date, enabling API-based real-time dissemination, and allowing the CSE to use DSE's system under a commercial framework.

Brokers and issuer departments expressed readiness for integration, and the CSE confirmed its willingness to adopt the unified SSS.

The rollout will start with PSIs and material disclosures.