Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur has said the country's banking sector will need five to ten years to recover from the severe burden of non-performing loans (NPLs), warning that high levels of defaulted loans remain the single biggest challenge for financial stability.

The ongoing reforms were designed to restore discipline over time, but the damage done by years of poor governance and political influence would take patience and strong commitment to fix, he said while speaking at the "4th Bangladesh Economic Conference 2025" at a hotel in Dhaka today (29 November).

"Non-performing loans are a very big problem in the banking sector. Currently, 35% of loans are non-performing. This is not a small problem – more than one-third of loans have become unpaid," the governor said.

Credit growth is generally slow now because businesses are taking time. They want to understand where the country is going.
City Bank CEO Mashrur Arefin

"We have to run the banking sector keeping this situation in mind. It may take five to ten years to come out of this situation," he added.

According to central bank data up to September, defaulted loans in the banking system now exceed Tk6.5 lakh crore.

Mansur said the roots of the crisis are deep, pointing to prolonged directives and interference in the operations of the central bank itself.

"The main reason behind the problems in the banking sector is the politicisation of the central bank. Many decisions were taken under instructions," he said. "It may happen again – it must be stopped. Politicians have a moral duty to stop this."

The governor said the figure of defaulted loans may rise further until December before a gradual improvement begins.

Governor Mansur also spoke about the merger of five troubled Shariah-based banks to one entity – United Islami Bank.

"We are applying the Bank Resolution Ordinance to five weak banks, merging them into a strong new bank," he said. "We are hopeful the launching will take place next week. The paid-up capital will be Tk35,000 crore. The government is providing Tk20,000 crore."

Troubled NBFIs to be closed

The governor also announced measures against non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) that have failed to protect public funds.

"Nine financial institutions are going to be liquidated. The government is fully committed and will provide every kind of support," he said.

Under a newly created department and law, banks and NBFIs heading towards failure will first receive warnings and then stricter actions if no improvement is seen. "This will not be an isolated move, and it will not be done for special reasons. When needed, measures will be taken," he said. "A law has been enacted for this, and a separate department has been created."

Rising NPLs eroding borrower confidence, tightening credit environment: DCCI

Mansur said the next government formed after the upcoming election would understand the urgency of financial reforms and support the process going forward.

Dollar reserves stable, adequate

Governor Ahsan H Mansur dismissed concerns of dollar shortages, saying banks currently hold sufficient reserves to allow imports freely.

"When I joined as governor, the dollar rate was Tk120. Now it is Tk122.50 – without any intervention. The market is fully market-based," he said. "We can import as much as we want. If anyone says they cannot import, that is their problem. Banks do not have a dollar shortage."

He added that all margin requirements on letters of credit (LCs) have been removed.

The governor also said there were challenges during the last Ramadan to ensure supply of food imports, but this year key Ramadan-essential items have already seen increased import orders.

Central bank figures show that compared to a year ago, imports of six major essential goods in September and October rose sharply: soybean oil by 36%, sugar 11%, lentils 87%, chickpeas 27%, field peas 294%, and dates 231%.

"Ramadan items have already been covered. We do not see any concerns this time," he said.

Mansur further stated that the gap between policy interest rates and inflation should ideally stay between 2.5% and 3%.

"Currently inflation is 8.20%. If we bring it below that level, closer to 7%, then the policy interest rate will be reduced," he noted.

Other guests at the event included Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Director General AK Enamul Haque; Ha-Meem Group Chairman and Managing Director AK Azad; Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association President and GPH Group Chairman Jahangir Alam; and City Bank Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Mashrur Arefin.

Speaking at the event, City Bank Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Mashrur Arefin said business sentiment is cautious as investors try to gauge the economic direction ahead of the national election.

"Credit growth is generally slow now because businesses are taking time. They want to understand where the country is going," he said. "Inflation was 12% and today it is 8.17%. The central bank wants to reduce it to 5%. Investment will improve after the election."

He also praised the central bank's shift to a fully market-based currency regime. "No intervention in the dollar market – it was a long-time dream," he said.

He said the country earns around $50 billion from exports and $30 billion from remittances each year. Imports amount to about $5 billion a month, or roughly $70 billion a year.

"So we earn about $80 billion and spend $70 billion, which can be considered quite good. This is bringing a kind of discipline to the market," he said.

He also noted that the current account deficit has fallen from $19 billion to $400 million, while the financial account is now in surplus.

Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Director General AK Enamul warned that enforcement-heavy financial governance risks undermining confidence.

"The current financial management is too focused on 'catching wrongdoers'. This creates a crisis of trust in business," he said. "If an economy is not based on trust, businesses and investment cannot move with confidence. Without trust, recovery becomes difficult."

He also criticised weaknesses in regulatory accountability and compared tax administration to a colonial-era system that sees revenue collection as the only priority.

Over the past five years, Bangladesh's banking sector has undergone a significant transformation. Mobile apps have brought almost every banking service directly into people's hands, allowing customers to conduct their daily financial activities from home instead of visiting branches.

Today, nearly all private commercial banks have launched their own mobile apps for everyday banking. This widespread adoption has fuelled a sharp rise in digital transactions, creating a win-win situation for both customers and banks. According to Bangladesh Bank data, internet banking — mostly conducted through mobile apps — accounted for over 40% of all monthly banking transactions in July.

Rising smartphone use and smart banking apps are accelerating Bangladesh's move toward a cash-light economy. Digital payments now support every layer of commerce, from micro-merchants to major corporations

In that same month, transactions through internet banking amounted to Tk1.13 lakh crore, compared to Tk1.57 lakh crore through cheque clearing. Banks say the surge in mobile app usage has been driven by the digital payment ecosystem they have built, which has made online transactions particularly popular among younger users.

From paying bills and rent to sending money, opening accounts, checking statements, downloading tax certificates, or simply recharging a phone balance, mobile banking has placed everything just a few taps away. No queues, no banking hours, and no need to be physically present at a branch.

A striking example is City Bank's Citytouch, one of the earliest digital banking platforms launched in 2013. For the first seven years, progress was slow, with only 72,000 users. But the next four and a half years witnessed an extraordinary surge. The user base jumped to 8.82 lakh, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.4%. The Covid-19 pandemic acted as a major catalyst, as lockdowns and social distancing pushed people towards digital services for daily needs.

The jump in transactions is even more revealing. In 2020, Citytouch recorded daily transactions worth Tk27 crore. By July this year, that figure had skyrocketed to Tk400 crore — a CAGR of 73.6%. This massive shift has allowed City Bank to save around Tk20 crore every month on staff costs. More importantly, it shows how rapidly Bangladeshis are embracing digital money management.

BRAC Bank's Astha app has seen similar success, surpassing 10 lakh users and now crossing 12 lakh. Managing Director and CEO Tareq Refat Ullah Khan called it a "significant milestone," noting that customers conduct Tk20,000 crore in transactions each month — nearly Tk700 crore daily. He said digital banking has grown from being a convenience to becoming a central part of everyday financial life.

Today, 71% of BRAC Bank's total transactions take place through the Astha app. Tasks that once required hours — paying bills, applying for deposits, collecting bank statements for income tax, redeeming reward points, updating nominee details, or adjusting card settings — can now be done within minutes. Customers can also pay insurance premiums, manage education fees, activate auto-pay instructions, and operate DPS, FDR, or consumer loans directly through the app. This ease has made financial management far more intuitive, allowing people to spend less time on routine banking.

The shift is also helping Bangladesh move toward a cash-light society. Astha now facilitates digital payments at every level of the economy — from micro-merchants using BanglaQR to large corporate transactions. Annual transactions through the app soared from Tk12,000 crore in 2021 to more than Tk134,000 crore in 2024, reflecting a major behavioural change and growing trust in secure, traceable digital channels.

BRAC Bank has invested heavily in building a strong digital infrastructure to support this momentum. "With the Astha app, we've empowered customers to open an account or apply for a loan in the time it takes to enjoy a cup of tea. We're offering more than a service — we're creating instant access to opportunity. That's the very essence of genuine financial inclusion," said the bank's MD.

Dutch-Bangla Bank's NexusPay is another major driver of this shift. With nearly 70 lakh users as of August, monthly transactions through NexusPay exceed Tk21,000 crore, placing DBBL at the centre of the country's digital payment network.

According to Managing Director Abul Kashem Md Shirin, mobile banking did more than modernise the banking system — it created a parallel, mobile-first financial ecosystem that reached people traditional banks could not. In rural areas without physical branches, agent banking supported by apps or even simple USSD codes became the local "branch." Farmers, day labourers, and small shop owners suddenly had access to services once limited to urban customers.

As one of the pioneers of MFS, DBBL's Rocket changed customer behaviour early on. Before Rocket, banking meant cash. But with simple services like Cash-In/Cash-Out, P2P transfers, and merchant payments, people began to treat their mobile phone as a safe wallet. For garment workers, small business owners, and remittance recipients, this instant access to funds was transformative — no more losing a day's wage travelling to a bank branch.

bKash, the largest mobile financial services provider in Bangladesh, now has 8.2 crore customers using its app for transactions. Users can also add money directly from their bank accounts, making digital payments even smoother.

Azmal Huda, Chief Product & Technology Officer of bKash, said, "We designed the app to be a lifestyle enabler, not just a financial tool. We moved away from text-heavy interfaces to an engaging visual, icon-driven design that bridges literacy gaps. The reason bKash has become the preferred choice for millions is that it works intuitively; users don't have to 'learn' the app — the app guides them. Whether it is the clean layout or the one-tap access to essential services, every pixel is designed to reduce cognitive load and make financial freedom accessible to everyone."

Eastern Bank's Skybanking, though smaller in scale with 4.5 lakh users and Tk120 crore in daily transactions, has shown one of the fastest growth trajectories. In the last five years, users increased by 437%, transaction volume by 775%, and total transaction value by 2,695% — showing how quickly the bank is catching up.

Ali Reza Iftekhar, Managing Director and CEO of EBL, said, "Today, nearly half a million people use Skybanking, with a Bank-to-App conversion rate close to 50% — among the highest in Bangladesh. This shift reflects more than adoption; it represents a mindset change. Customers are no longer 'trying out' digital banking — they are relying on it as their primary mode of financial interaction."

He added, "Mobile banking is one of the strongest catalysts in Bangladesh's journey toward a cashless society. Every digital payment, every QR transaction, every online transfer chips away at our dependence on cash."

Mutual Trust Bank's MTB Neo app offers 24/7 access to services such as balance checks, fund transfers, bill payments, account opening, and more. Its user base has been growing by 35% annually, now reaching nearly 2.5 lakh users. Monthly transactions have seen a 90% year-on-year increase, totalling around Tk2,000 crore.

MTB Managing Director and CEO Syed Mahbubur Rahman said, "MTB Neo didn't just digitise banking; it changed how our customers think about banking altogether. Our philosophy has been simple: if a customer can do something at a branch, they should be able to do it from MTB Neo as well. Whether it's paying utility bills, sending money to a friend, paying school fees, purchasing essentials, making business-related transfers, or even applying for loans — our goal is to place everything within the customer's reach."

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) is grappling with a massive provision shortfall of Tk3,459 crore, underscoring the worsening financial health of the state-owned investment bank at a time amid persistent instability in the capital market.

The figure, disclosed in the audited financial statements for FY25, prepared by Basu Banerjee Nath and Co and Anil Salam Idris and Co, signals a mounting financial burden for an institution once considered the strongest pillar of the country's stock market.

The audit report put ICB's total investment portfolio at Tk14,983 crore on a cost basis. But based on market value, the portfolio shrank by Tk4,665 crore to Tk10,318 crore.

Against this erosion, ICB was required to maintain a provision of Tk4,665 crore, but it has so far set aside only Tk1,380 crore.

In its financial statement, the corporation acknowledged that the shortfall represented 24.41% of its total investment in securities as of 30 June 2025, expressing hope that improving market conditions could gradually narrow the gap.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has extended the deadline for adjusting the shortfall until 31 December 2025, giving the corporation additional time to rebuild its financial buffers.

Once regarded as a reliable stabiliser in times of market stress, ICB incurred a loss of Tk1.212.86 crore in FY25, the largest in its history. The losses are attributed to poor investment decisions in fragile non-bank financial institutions, the sharp erosion in its capital market holdings amid prolonged volatility, and the burden of high-cost bank borrowings taken for investment purposes.

This unprecedented loss has forced ICB to skip dividend payments for the first time since its inception in 1976.

The financial strain has persisted into the current fiscal year. In the July–September quarter of FY26, ICB posted a consolidated loss of Tk156 crore, significantly higher than the loss in the same quarter of the previous year.

By the end of September 2025, its consolidated loss per share stood at Tk1.80, reflecting deepening financial pressure.

For an institution that has long played a pivotal role in providing liquidity, rescuing weak stocks during downturns, and cushioning market shocks, the magnitude of losses and shortfall raises serious concerns about its ability to live up to its mandate.

Analysts say that unless the capital market experiences a sustained recovery and ICB undertakes aggressive restructuring of its portfolio, the shortfall could persist well beyond the extended deadline.

ICB's share price edged up slightly, closing 0.51% higher at Tk39.50 on Thursday.

Dhaka-based listed company Bangladesh Welding Electrodes (BD Welding) is actively seeking a new investor to restart its long-closed factory, rehire employees, and overcome a prolonged financial crisis.

The company's board has expressed hope that securing a new investor will enable it to resume production, stabilise operations, and pay outstanding listing fees to the stock exchange in instalments. BD Welding communicated this critical update to the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (29 November).

Shares of the company closed at Tk9.60 during today's trading session on the Dhaka bourse.

According to the stock exchange disclosure, BD Welding – listed in 1999 – regularly paid its annual listing fees until 2012. From 2013 onwards, however, the company failed to continue payments due to mounting operational and financial difficulties, leading to sizeable arrears.

The company reported that its former factory in Chattogram suffered repeated flooding and landslides until 2017, at times remaining submerged under 5-6 feet of water. The disasters caused severe damage to raw materials, finished goods, and machinery. Although all assets were insured with Federal Insurance Company Limited, the insurer rejected the claims. BD Welding later filed a lawsuit in the District and Sessions Judge Court and was awarded Tk2 crore in damages, but the insurer appealed, and the case remains pending.

BD Welding has not produced any goods since 2016. Its failure to repay bank loans triggered an auction process for its factory. The then managing director managed to halt the auction and, following an Extraordinary General Meeting, the company sold the Chattogram factory land – excluding structures and machinery – to clear its bank liabilities.

It subsequently bought land in Dhamrai, Dhaka, and relocated machinery there. However, financial limitations prevented the construction of a factory shed and the reinstallation of equipment, keeping production suspended indefinitely. Except for two office staff, all employees were placed on unpaid leave.

Over this period, office rent, utility bills, and annual fees payable to the DSE, CSE, and CDBL accumulated. In 2021, amid escalating financial stress, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) appointed two independent directors and restricted the sale or transfer of company assets. Three additional independent directors were later appointed, leading to a reconstitution of the board. The new board subsequently lifted restrictions on the Chattogram property and completed its transfer.

The company has since divided its remaining Dhamrai land, appointed three security guards, and resumed regular salary payments to the managing director and three office staff. Outstanding rent and utility bills have also been cleared.

The former managing director, who had long battled cancer, passed away on 3 January 2023, adding to the company's challenges. The reconstituted board is now seeking a strategic investor to restart production, restore financial stability, rehire employees, and settle overdue listing fees in instalments.

BD Welding has also requested regulatory authorities to extend the deadline for settling its outstanding listing fees and other dues until a new investor is secured.

Indian exporters are being forced to sell onions stockpiled for Bangladesh in the local market at throwaway prices. This happened after the Bangladesh government halted onion imports from India to protect local farmers.

On Friday, at the Mahadipur-Sonamasjid border in West Bengal's Malda district, a kilogram of onions was seen selling for only 2 rupees (Rs). A 50-kg sack cost just Rs100. Onions purchased in Nashik for Rs16 per kg, with transport and other costs taking the total to Rs22 rupees per kg, are now being sold for almost nothing.

In Malda's retail markets, onions cost Rs20–22 per kg. But only 7km away in Mahadipur, buyers can find a sack at just Rs2 per kg. Exporters say this is entirely due to Bangladesh's sudden suspension of imports.

The exporters say Bangladeshi importers had verbally assured them, prompting them to stockpile onions near the border for export to Bangladesh. At least 30,000 tonnes of onions had been stockpiled at the Ghojadanga, Petrapole, Mahadipur and Hili borders alone. Worth crores of rupees, these onions have now begun to rot.

To minimise losses, exporters are having to employ more than a hundred labourers daily to separate the good onions from the rotten ones.

Normally, 30-35 truckloads of onions cross into Bangladesh daily through Mahadipur. Hoping for similar demand, Indian traders had stockpiled nearly 20,000 tonnes of onions in this border area alone. Their cost per kg was around 22 rupees. Had Bangladesh imported them, exporters would have received Rs30–32 per kg, earning a profit of Rs8-10 per kg.

Traders say that on 16 November, the Bangladeshi import–export group issued a notice stating that Bangladesh's Department of Agricultural Extension had been restricting import permits for Indian onions for some time.

They say that at this time of year, onion demand in Bangladesh is always high. Onion currently costs around Tk100 per kg in Bangladesh.

Trader Sajirul Sheikh said, "Some of us bought 50 truckloads, some bought 70 truckloads of onions from Nashik and Indore and stored them in our godowns in Malda. We brought them in large 14- and 16-wheel lorries. At Rs22 per kg, one tonne cost 2,200 rupees. But now the onions have started rotting. So we are being forced to sell them for Rs2, 6, 8 or 10 per kg."

Trader Jakirul Islam said, "When exports were normal two months ago, I exported 30–35 truckloads. But after exports were stopped, our stock started rotting. So without delay, we hired more than a hundred workers to sort the onions and started selling them locally for whatever price we could get. Bangladesh has sent a clear message that they will not import onions right now. If they do later, they will announce it in a notification. We are asking both the state and central governments to intervene, otherwise the situation will worsen."

Despite buying onions cheaply, Indian buyer Khairul Haque said the losses suffered by traders were nothing to celebrate. "Because of the negligence of the state and central governments, the onion market is in a disastrous state. We are buying onions for just Rs2 per kg. Slightly better onions cost 8–10 rupees. In our markets, the price is around Rs20–30 per kg."

Maritime specialists say India and Bangladesh will need closer coordination to manage outstanding jurisdictional complications in the Bay of Bengal, despite a 2014 UN tribunal ruling that settled the countries' maritime boundary dispute.

The tribunal awarded Bangladesh 19,467 sq km of the 25,602 sq km disputed area, a decision both countries accepted. But experts say "grey areas" remain within the agreed boundaries where Bangladesh has authority over the seabed while India retains jurisdiction over the water column, says Th Hindu.

Maritime expert Joshua Alexander, who worked on maritime issues with the Bangladeshi government from 2009 to 2021, said the boundaries agreed upon are "not really simple." He said the disconnect makes management difficult without cooperation, noting that Bangladesh cannot approve seabed construction such as oil platforms without considering India's jurisdiction above.

Alexander said the two countries have yet to establish a framework for operating in these resource-rich zones.

During the years Sheikh Hasina was in power, Bangladesh strengthened security near Chittagong port, reducing piracy incidents that once made it one of the world's most insecure ports in 2006. The Bangladesh Navy has cooperated with India and the United States over the past five or six years to "monitor and respond" to piracy along the coastline, he said.

Bangladesh's interim government has accelerated efforts to modernise the country's ports. Alexander welcomed the decision to lease the New Mooring Container Terminal at Chittagong port to UAE-based DP World, saying Bangladesh has the right as a sovereign state to use its ports optimally.

He credited the previous government for improving security but said Dhaka should plan for the next half-century, including preparing for autonomous vessels and ships requiring specialised security.

Chief Adviser of the interim government, Prof. Mohammed Yunus, has described Bangladesh as the "only guardian of the ocean." He said Bangladesh could provide access to the Bay of Bengal for India's northeastern region, which he described as "landlocked," through ports such as Chittagong and Matarbari.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) extended its recovery for the second consecutive week, as investors cautiously engaged on both the buy and sell sides, anticipating improved conditions in an oversold and volatile market.

By week's close, the benchmark DSEX rose 159 points to settle at 4,028. The blue-chip DS30 gained 56 points to 1,934, while the Shariah-compliant DSES advanced 39 points to 1,057. The DSE SME Index (DSMEX) also added 24 points, closing at 916.

Market insiders noted that despite recent gains, many investors were unable to book significant profits, as short-term volatility and uncertainty ahead of the national election schedule kept sentiment cautious. Z-category stocks dominated trading this week, reflecting selective participation amid political and market uncertainty.

"The market has been heavily oversold after several weeks of consecutive declines," a trader said. "Many fundamentally strong stocks are now trading at attractive levels, prompting opportunistic investors to take fresh positions in anticipation of a rebound."

Analysts also attributed part of the previous decline to the enforcement of new margin loan rules, which triggered forced sell-offs and added downward pressure on prices.

Trading activity picked up significantly, with average daily turnover rising 32.09% to Tk525 crore from Tk398 crore the previous week. Total weekly turnover reached Tk2,626 crore, up from Tk1,988 crore, while market capitalisation climbed 1.52% to Tk6,92,133.38 crore. Out of 414 issues traded, 335 advanced, 32 declined, 12 remained unchanged, and 34 saw no trading activity.

According to EBL Securities, the market's recovery was supported by media reports of central bank funding for ICB, alongside growing expectations of an imminent tentative election schedule, which boosted investor confidence.

Sector-wise, investors were most active in Engineering (13.3%), followed by Fuel & Power (12.5%) and Textiles (12.0%). All sectors closed in positive territory, with IT leading at 9.1%, followed by General Insurance at 7.6% and Paper at 7.4%.

While profit-taking by risk-averse investors slowed momentum late in the week, buyers maintained dominance, extending the market's short-term recovery streak.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has awarded FIX (financial information exchange) certification to nine more brokerage firms as part of its initiative to introduce in-house order management systems (OMS) through API connectivity in all brokerage houses.

Mohammad Asadur Rahman, acting managing director of DSE, formally handed over the certificates to the recipients at a ceremony held at the DSE board roomon Thursday.

The newly certified brokerage houses are Bangladesh Finance Securities, Fintra Securities, IDLC Finance, IIDFC Securities, LankaBangla Securities, MTB Securities, SAR Securities, South Asia Securities and Weifang Securities. LankaBangla Securities received recertification.

The DSE launched its API-based Broker House Order Management Systems (BHOMS) programme in 2020. Since then, 65 brokerage houses have applied to connect their systems with the NASDAQ Matching Engine. With the latest additions, 47 firms have secured FIX certification, and 35 have already launched in-house OMS platforms.

FIX certification is mandatory for any brokerage house looking to operate its own OMS. Such systems allow TREC holders to process trades faster, manage investor portfolios with greater accuracy, and reduce reliance on the DSE's central OMS.

At the certificate handover ceremony, Asadur Rahman said the DSE is prioritising digital transformation of the capital market with the objective of turning it into a customer-centric service organisation while upholding regulatory standards.

"We expect to launch a one-stop digital service by next month, including a modern landing page for the website, an online document submission system for TREC holders, and stakeholder-feedback-based compliance and data-flow improvements," he said.

DSE Chief Technology Officer Dr Md Asifur Rahman said stock exchange technology differs sharply from banking systems, as even a momentary service disruption can affect the entire market.

"So, we always have to be alert, focused, and standards-compliant. With the recent centralised system integration, our technology position is now very close to global standards, in some cases even ahead," he said.

Enabling local teams to develop and operate OMS applications represents both technological progress and a national achievement, he added.

The DSE is trying to bring all brokerage firms under FIX certification. For those who are yet to adopt this system, the DSE will provide the necessary support, said acting managing director Asadur Rahman.

Gold edged lower on Thursday on profit-taking after it hit a near two-week high in the previous session, while investors weighed the possibility of a December US interest rate cut amid conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $4,153.49 per ounce, as of 0616 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $4,150.0 per ounce.

"What they're looking to do is take profits (after Wednesday's climb)... The Fed isn't clear of what they're going to do next, so gold is just consolidating," GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan said.

Conflicting signals on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty.

Some Fed officials, led by New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, have stated a December easing may be warranted due to the labor market weakness putting downward pressure on Treasury yields.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields held near one-month lows in the previous session.

Their stance, however, contrasted with several regional Fed presidents advocating a pause in easing until inflation shows a more convincing move toward the 2 percent target.

Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, who has emerged as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, like US President Donald Trump, has said rates should be lower.

US rate futures are pricing in an 85 percent chance of a rate cut in December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Non-yielding gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Weekly jobless claims fell last week, data on Wednesday showed, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work.

US consumer confidence also weakened in November on concerns regarding jobs and household financial outlook.

India has approved a more than $800 million plan to boost production of rare earth magnets in an effort to secure supplies and cut its dependence on imports from countries like China.

Rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs), some of the strongest types of permanent magnets, made from alloys of rare earth elements, are used in many critical sectors, including electric vehicles, aerospace and renewable energy.

New Delhi currently meets its demand primarily through imports, with the government estimating that the country's needs could double by 2030.

India's cabinet approved on Tuesday a 72.8 billion rupee ($815.3 million) scheme to promote the production of REPMs, which the government said will help secure the "supply chain for domestic industries".

The plan involves offering sales-linked incentives and subsidies to help establish a manufacturing capacity of around 6,000 metric tons per year.

"This first-of-its-kind initiative aims to establish 6,000 MTPA (metric tons per annum) of integrated REPM manufacturing in India, thereby enhancing self-reliance and positioning India as a key player in the global REPM market," the government said in a statement.

Local industry groups welcomed the move, with the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) saying it will provide long-term resilience to the automotive supply chain.

It will encourage investments in advanced materials and give India a strong position in global value chains for EVs and clean energy, Vikrampati Singhania, ACMA president, said in a statement.

"This is a strategic and forward-looking intervention that addresses one of the most critical gaps in the EV and advanced mobility ecosystem," he said.

While India sources rare earth magnets from multiple countries, China's export curbs earlier this year raised alarm among some Indian firms.

The US dollar was heading for its worst weekly performance since late July on Friday as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next month.

The dollar has dropped this week as traders conclude that weakening labor data will lead to more rate cuts, even as many Fed policymakers express concern about still-elevated inflation.

"It feels like with the post-shutdown run of releases, it's generally been soft ... the data overall definitely leaned towards a cut," said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

The US federal government is releasing a backlog of economic data after reopening from a record 43-day shutdown.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 87 percent odds of a cut at the conclusion of the Fed's December 9-10 meeting, up from 71 percent a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Fed officials will enter a blackout period on Saturday ahead of the meeting.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major peers, was last down 0.09 percent at 99.44, and on track for a 0.61 percent weekly loss, its largest since July 21.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is due to speak on Monday, and traders will focus on whether he signals a likely rate increase at the BOJ's December meeting, which could continue to lift the currency.

"There's obviously a lot of anticipation around the Bank of Japan meeting in December. Will they hike rates? Will they not hike rates? And up until now, Ueda has been reasonably non-committal/dovish and hasn't really signaled a December hike yet," said James Lord, head of FX and emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley.

"But with dollar-yen at these levels and the fiscal package that has been announced by the government, there's a possibility that we will see a rate hike in the December meeting," Lord said.

Made in China 2025 is "very insulting", then-US President Donald Trump complained in 2018, because it "means in 2025, [the country is] going to take over, economically, the world...that's not happening". Launched a decade ago, Beijing's 10-year masterplan, laid out sweeping goals across aviation, robotics and other sectors aimed at transforming the world's second largest economy into a "manufacturing superpower". But the industrial blueprint drew intense backlash from Washington and Brussels, which accused China of trying to displace Western businesses unfairly. As Made in China 2025 draws to a close, its successor will reshape global trade over the next few years - and spark even fiercer pushback.

The US leader's comments at the time underscored the fallout of President Xi Jinping's grand ambitions. Beijing's alleged use of state subsidies, preferential treatment of domestic companies, forced technological transfers and other tactics formed a major justification of Washington's first trade war with China, as well as for sweeping sanctions on telecommunications equipment makers Huawei and ZTE.

Though Chinese officials quietly dropped mentions of Made in China 2025 from policy documents, domestic firms led by private-sector champions like Huawei as well as state-backed giants all stepped up. A US government report published in November found that across the 10 strategic industries identified in Made in China 2025, the country has "met or exceeded many of the very ambitious global market share, local sourcing and technological development targets".

Battery-powered and hybrid vehicles, for example, are a notable success. Beijing targeted annual production from its automakers of 3 million units by 2025; in 2021, the industry, led by the $117 billion BYD, churned out 3.5 million vehicles. High-end medical devices, ships and space equipment scored similar wins.

By 2023, China's share of global manufacturing as measured by value hit 28.8 percent, up from 25.9 percent in 2015, according to the same US report. In the Made in China 2025 industries, the People's Republic accounted for nearly one-quarter of global growth in exports in the eight years since the plan was launched, capturing 20 percent of exports by 2023.

These gains stand out, even if the country has fallen short in critical areas like semiconductors and aviation. Western governments today are floundering to bring back strategic manufacturing sectors and supply chains from shipbuilding to critical minerals.

Against this backdrop, all eyes are on China's next economic blueprint. Indeed, a Made in China 2035 plan is probably already underway, though given its predecessor's controversy, Beijing is keeping its masterplan under wraps. Yet under Xi's political slogan of "new productive forces", which refers to the country's next growth drivers, planners have already spelled out industrial targets in various planning documents and directives.

In October, for example, the central government released its official recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will run from 2026 to 2030. Similar to Made in China 2025, industries spanning artificial intelligence, clean energy, 6G telecommunications and quantum computing play a central role, with the ultimate aim of "achieving socialist modernisation by 2035".

For Xi, the stakes look higher than in the past years. Economic planners in Beijing have noted the recent breakthroughs in AI and other tech, as well as escalating geopolitical and economic rivalries, will bring about momentous upheaval "not seen in a decade". Moreover, the Chinese leader has a long-term vision to double, the country's nominal GDP in 2035, from 2020 levels, to $28 trillion. That implies annual growth of about 4 percent over the next decade.

That looks possible, but only with booming exports. Earlier this month, analysts at Goldman Sachs hiked up, their China forecasts. They now expect the country's real export growth to increase to between 5 percent and 6 percent annually for the next few years, up from a previous forecast of between 2 percent and 3 percent in what the analysts term "China Shock 2.0". This will exacerbate global trade tensions, already made worse by Trump's tariffs. Economies that will be most negatively impacted include Germany, Central and Eastern Europe and Mexico, Goldman reckons.

Moreover, with US consumers essentially off limits, many Chinese manufacturers are accelerating efforts to crack other markets. Despite the European Commission imposing tariffs of as much as 45 percent on battery-electric vehicles last year, Chinese automakers have nearly doubled sales in the bloc so far in 2025.

China's manufacturing focus can also worsen economic imbalances at home. Household consumption in the People's Republic lags global averages by about 20 percentage points of GDP, while debt-driven investment is roughly double. That has resulted in overcapacity across many industries including electric vehicles and steelmaking.

Combined with weak demand, falling property prices and slowing wage growth, deflation is setting in. The producer price index has declined for 37 consecutive months. Analysts at Morgan Stanley reckon the GDP deflator - the broadest measure of prices across goods and services - will remain negative for 2026. A Japan-style deflationary spiral will add fuel for critics who have long called for a more consumption-driven economy.

Beijing appears to be well-attuned to these concerns. In addition to tech-driven growth, authorities have also been talking up "the need to vigorously boost consumption". The next five-year plan will also have a target of "significantly" raising the percentage of household consumption of GDP, a top official said in October, though no details were given.

Yet any meaningful shift in consumption would mean a reduction in the share of the economy absorbed by manufacturing. Given the centrality of high-tech industries and exports in Xi's plans, such a shift seems unlikely. China's next economic blueprint will rattle global and domestic markets.

The benchmark equity index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) advanced for a second consecutive week, buoyed largely by fresh liquidity support from the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB).

The state-run investment bank began deploying funds into the market this week after receiving Tk 10 billion in government loans to ease its liquidity strain and shore up market stability. The loan carries a 5 percent interest rate with a 10-year tenure and a one-year grace period.

"We have started injecting the fund into the market, particularly into fundamentally strong stocks, from the amount received from the government," Prof Abu Ahmed, chairman of ICB, told the FE on Monday.

Market analysts said ICB's intervention, coupled with renewed bargain hunting, helped lift investor confidence. Buyers returned to battered stocks seeking short-term gains, despite lingering political uncertainties.

Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said general investors, including institutional ones, rushed to put fresh funds into blue-chip stocks as they came down to attractive valuations after a recent correction.

Speculation about a favourable outcome in the ongoing legal proceedings concerning the newly enacted margin rules also appeared to provide support to the market, he said.

News of ICB's market-supportive actions further boosted investor sentiment on the trading floor, prompting opportunistic traders to re-enter the market.

With the renewed momentum, the benchmark index has moved back toward the 5,000pointafter three weeks, defying the broader uncertainty surrounding market direction.

This week, three sessions ended higher while two others closed lower amid improved trading activities.

Finally, the prime DSEX index settled the week 159 points or 3.27 per cent higher at 5,028. The index recovered a total of 325 points in the past two consecutive weeks.

The blue-chip DS30 index, a group of 30 prominent companies, also surged 56 points to close at 1,934 while the DSES index, which represents Shariah-based companies, gained 38 points to 1,057.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market analysis, said stocks extended their recovery streak, defying the prevailing uncertainties surrounding the market's momentum, as opportunistic investors returned to the market and sought positions in a handful of stocks that they deemed attractive at current price levels.

"The market sentiment was buoyed by media reports on long-awaited central bank funding support for ICB, which contributed to broader market optimism," said the stockbroker.

Additionally, some clarity on the political front, supported by expectations of an upcoming announcement of the tentative election schedule, helped reinforce investors' confidence in the market's near-term outlook, it explained.

Price hike of blue-chip stocks, including Beximco Pharma, Square Pharma, Renata, Al-Arafah Islami Bank and Islami Bank Bangladesh, largely contributed to the market index surge. These five stocks accounted for a 30-point rise in the DSEX.

The market liquidity also improved as the total turnover stood at Tk 26.25 billion as against Tk 19.88 billion in the week before.

Accordingly, the average daily turnover stood at Tk 5.25 billion, up 32 per cent from the previous week's average turnover of Tk 3.97 billion.

Investors were mostly active in the engineering sector, which accounted for 13.3 per cent of the week's total turnover, followed by pharma (12.5 per cent) and textile sector (12 per cent).

Gainers outnumbered the losers, as out of 379 issues traded, 335 saw price surge while 32 others ended lower and 12 issues remained unchanged on the DSE floor.

All the major sectors showed positive performance. The non-bank financial institutions posted the highest gain of 4.1 per cent, followed by engineering, food, pharma, banking and telecom.

Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries became the most-traded stocks, with shares worth Tk 938 million changing hands, closely followed by Shahjibazar Power, Orion Infusion, Simtex Industries and Anwar Galvanizing.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also extended its winning streak, with its All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rising 395 points to close at 14,037, while the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) rose 224 points to 8,642.

The port city bourse traded 26.51 million shares and mutual fund units with turnover value of Tk 1.11 billion.

China is rapidly advancing in two frontier technologies—autonomous vehicles and new drug development—signalling another wave of global influence, according to a new report by The Economist.

The publication says these sectors are emerging as fresh examples of China's capacity to scale innovation, following its dominance in electric vehicles, solar panels and open-source artificial intelligence.

The Economist reports that China's robotaxi industry is expanding quickly, with autonomous vehicles produced at roughly a third of the cost of American rival Waymo's.

These vehicles have logged millions of kilometres and secured partnerships in Europe and the Middle East as part of efforts to reshape future transport and logistics.

In pharmaceuticals, China has shifted from being a producer of generics to becoming the world's second-largest developer of new drugs, including cancer treatments. Western companies are already licensing products from Chinese firms, and the magazine notes that a Chinese pharma giant now appears within reach.

The report highlights China's "deep pool of talent", extensive manufacturing base and the benefits of scale—factors that have pushed both sectors up the value chain.

Robotaxi development has benefited from the country's mass EV production and its dominance in sensors such as lidars, while the pharmaceutical sector has accelerated through large clinical trial networks and profits from generic drug production.

Regulation has also played a decisive role. The Economist notes that China's drug regulator quadrupled its staff between 2015 and 2018 and reduced the approval time for human trials from 501 days to 87.

Meanwhile, more than 50 cities have hosted pilot schemes for autonomous vehicles, encouraged by local authorities eager for investment and technological prestige.

However, the journal also points to intense domestic competition that forces companies into "brutal" price wars, leaving only the most resilient firms capable of competing globally.

Those survivors, it says, are now prepared to enter overseas markets, with low-cost medicines and robotaxi services expected to spread—though the latter may face restrictions in the United States due to security concerns.

The Economist warns that this new wave of Chinese innovation could challenge Western industries but argues that blanket protectionism would risk depriving consumers of cheaper medicines and transport.

Instead, it says Western governments should reassess their own innovation policies, noting that regulatory inertia, reduced research funding and limits on skilled immigration have left Europe and parts of the United States falling behind.

While China does not "own the future", the report concludes, countries hoping to compete in areas such as autonomous vehicles, pharmaceuticals, EVs, and solar power must learn from China's blend of private-sector inventiveness, regulatory flexibility and industrial scale.

Sri Lanka's central bank said today (26 November) that it was counting on the IMF releasing a $350 million loan instalment to bolster foreign reserves owing to a surge in vehicle imports since a five-year ban was lifted in February.

Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said he was hopeful of receiving the sixth tranche of a $2.9 billion, four-year bailout agreed in early 2023 as part of a deal to support the island's tottering economy.

"With the IMF instalment and other funding, we expect an inflow of about $750 million next month," Weerasinghe told reporters in Colombo after a review of the economy.

Officials imposed a raft of import restrictions in 2020 when the country was running out of foreign exchange.

The government lifted the ban on vehicle imports in February, sparking a huge splurge by Sri Lankans.

Weerasinghe said about $1.2 billion had been spent on bringing in cars between February and September, far more than expected.

"We are seeing the pent-up demand easing since July, and next year we won't have the same level of vehicle imports," he said.

Following an unprecedented default on its $46 billion external debt in 2022, Colombo negotiated a bailout in early 2023, subject to reforming its economy in line with IMF-dictated austerity.

The country's rupee currency has depreciated 5% against the US dollar this year, while the central bank expects inflation to accelerate to 5% by the end of the year, from 2.1% in October.

The IMF announced a staff-level agreement last month on releasing the next instalment of the loan, but it is subject to board approval.

The Washington-based Fund expects Sri Lanka's growth to remain strong and noted that revenues had improved thanks to taxes on imported vehicles.

The World Bank, however, has warned that the recovery is "uneven and incomplete", with many households yet to regain livelihoods lost during the 2022 economic meltdown.

Bangladesh Bank has revised the requirements for appointing managing directors (MDs) and chief executive officers (CEOs) of bank companies.

The central bank’s Banking Regulation and Policy Department (BRPD) announced the revision in a circular on Wednesday.

The circular amends Section 2(গ)(10) of BRPD Circular No. 05, which was issued on February 27, 2024 and set out the basic eligibility conditions for CEO appointments.

A candidate from the banking profession must now have at least 20 years of experience as an active officer in the banking sector, the BB said.

The candidate must also have a minimum of three years’ experience, singly or jointly, as deputy managing director (DMD) and/or additional managing director (AMD) of a bank, it said.

Previously, the requirement was 20 years of banking experience plus at least two years in the position immediately below that of CEO, the cenbank noted.

Bangladesh Bank argued that it changed the criteria to ensure greater uniformity and similarity in prior experience requirements for managing director appointments across bank companies.

At the same time, the central bank circular clearly spells out an alternative route for senior officials from regulatory bodies in the banking and financial sector to head bank companies.

A candidate may also qualify with at least 25 years in first-class or equivalent senior posts at a regulator, along with serving as a Grade 2 officer under the national pay scale, it said.

All other instructions contained in BRPD Circular No. 05, dated February 27, 2024, will remain unchanged, the central bank clarified.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping to accelerate and increase Beijing's purchases of US goods during a phone call on Monday, and the Chinese leader had "more or less agreed."

"I asked him, I'd like you to buy it a little faster. I'd like you to buy more. And he's more or less agreed to do that," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the actions of President Xi."

China has resumed purchases of US soybeans and halted its expanded curbs on rare earths exports, but the pace of purchases had been less than initially expected.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) plans to digitalise the country's Initial Public Offering (IPO) process as part of a broader effort to make the country's capital market more modern and technology-driven, its Chairman Mominul Islam has announced.

Speaking at the inauguration of the "Regulatory Submission Module and CSE Onboarding" under the DSE's Smart Submission System, held at the Nikunja DSE Tower in the capital today (26 November), the chairman said that listed companies will now be able to submit all regulatory requirements and company-related information entirely online.

"This is a major step forward," he said, noting that discussions are already under way to enable the submission of IPO-related documents through the same digital platform in the future. Once implemented, the digital system will eliminate the need for hard copies and allow simultaneous access to information by both stock exchanges.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) will also be connected to this process. The new system is expected to reduce hassle for listed companies.

BSEC Commissioner Md Saifuddin, said that capital market operating agencies in emerging and frontier economies around the world have already embraced technology, whereas Bangladesh is yet to catch up.

"Operating agencies must adopt forward-looking strategies and prioritise technology adaptation," he said.

Saifuddin further stated that there should be no division among operating agencies, and each institution must work collectively through its own dedicated team.

DSE's Chief Operating Officer and Acting Managing Director Mohammad Asadur Rahman said that the introduction of the new system will enhance efficiency, transparency, and dynamism in market operations. "The system will also facilitate the future introduction of XBRL in Bangladesh."

Britain's government will have more than double its previous buffer for meeting its fiscal targets, due in large part to tax rises, according to estimates by the country's fiscal watchdog published on its website on Wednesday ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget statement.

British government borrowing costs initially fell sharply and the value of sterling rose against the US dollar and the euro before falling back.

In a release first reported by Reuters, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the headroom - the amount of extra spending or tax cuts possible for the government while staying within its budget rules - now stood at almost 22 billion pounds ($28.9 billion) in five years' time.

In March, the OBR forecast headroom of 9.9 billion pounds, a historically low level which was eaten up by a downgrade of the country's economic outlook, higher-than-expected borrowing costs and a u-turn on welfare reform.

A Reuters poll of economists published on Tuesday pointed to a median forecast for an increase in the headroom to just under 17 billion pounds.

Reeves is expected to announce tens of billions of pounds of tax increases on Wednesday in a budget speech that will put her credibility on the line both with bond investors and with left-wing lawmakers demanding more welfare spending.

The OBR said in its assessment of the budget that tax rises planned by Reeves would raise an annual 26.1 billion pounds by 2029-30, chief among them a longer freeze on the thresholds at which people start to pay income tax and a higher rate of income tax.

Reeves was due to deliver her budget speech in parliament at around 1230 GMT.

China's stranglehold on the rare earths industry -- from natural reserves and mining through processing and innovation -- is the result of a decades-long drive, now giving Beijing crucial leverage in its trade war with the United States.

The 17 key elements will play a vital role in the global economy in coming years, as analysts warn that plans to secure alternative supply chains by Western governments could take years to bear fruit.

Rare earths are crucial for the defence sector -- used in fighter jets, missile guidance systems and radar technology -- while also having a range of uses in everyday products including smartphones, medical equipment and automobiles.

Visited this month by AFP, the southeastern mining region of Ganzhou -- which specialises in "heavy" rare earths including yttrium and terbium -- was a hive of activity.

Media access to the secretive industry is rarely granted in China, but despite near-constant surveillance by unidentified minders, AFP journalists saw dozens of trucks driving in and out of one rare earths mine, in addition to several bustling processing facilities.

Sprawling new headquarters are being built in Ganzhou for China Rare Earth Group, one of the country's two largest state-owned companies in the industry following years of consolidation directed by Beijing.

Challenges this year have "paved the way for more countries to look into expanding rare earth metal production and processing", Heron Lim, economics lecturer at ESSEC Business School, told AFP.

"This investment could pay longer-term dividends," he said.

TRADE WAR

Sweeping export restrictions China imposed on the sector in early October sent shockwaves across global manufacturing sectors.

The curbs raised alarm bells in Washington, which has been engaged in a renewed trade war with Beijing since President Donald Trump began his second term.

At a high-stakes meeting in South Korea late last month, Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year truce in a blistering tariff war between the world's top two economies.

The deal -- which guarantees supply of rare earths and other critical minerals, at least temporarily -- effectively neutralised the most punishing US measures and was widely seen as a victory for Beijing.

"Rare earths are likely to remain at the centre of future Sino-US economic negotiations despite the tentative agreements thus far," Heron Lim told AFP.

"China has demonstrated its willingness to use more trade levers to keep the United States at the negotiating table," he said.

"The turbulence has created a challenging environment for producers that rely on various rare earth metals, as near-term supply is uncertain."

Washington and its allies are now racing to develop alternative mining and processing chains, but experts warn that process will take years. During the Cold War, the United States led the way in developing abilities to extract and process rare earths, with the Mountain Pass mine in California providing the bulk of global supplies.

But as tensions with Moscow eased and the substantial environmental toll wrought by the rare earth industry gained prominence, the United States gradually offshored capacity in the 1980s and 1990s. Now, China controls most of global rare earths mining -- around two thirds, by most estimates.

It is already home to the world's largest natural reserves of the elements of any country, according to geological surveys.

And it has a near total monopoly on separation and refining, with analysis this year showing a share of around nine tenths of all global processing.

Furthermore, a commanding lead in patents and strict export controls on processing technology solidify efforts by Beijing to prevent know-how from leaving the country.

"The United States and the European Union are heavily reliant on imports of rare earth elements, underscoring significant risks to critical industries," said Amelia Haines, commodities analyst at BMI, at a seminar this month.

"This sustained risk is likely to catalyse a faster, broader pivot towards rare earth security," she said.

CHASING ALTERNATIVES

US defence authorities have in recent years directed large sums towards shoring up domestic production -- part of efforts to achieve a "mine-to-magnet" supply chain by 2027.

Washington has also been working with allies to develop extraction and processing alternatives to China.

Trump signed a rare earths deal last month promising $8.5 billion in critical minerals projects with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia -- its vast territory home to extensive rare earth resources.

The US president also signed cooperation deals covering the critical minerals sector last month with Japan, Malaysia and Thailand.

Despite the flurry of activity and headlines this year, Washington has been aware of its rare earths problem for years.

In 2010, a maritime territorial dispute with Tokyo prompted Beijing to suspend shipments of the minerals to Japan -- the first major incident highlighting geopolitical ramifications of China's control over the sector.

The episode sparked calls by the administration of then-president Barack Obama to shore up US domestic resilience in the strategic field.

But 15 years later, China remains the chief rare earths power.