Two listed companies – The Dacca Dyeing & Manufacturing and Alltex Industries – have declared no dividend for their shareholders for the fiscal year 2024–25. The decisions were taken at separate board of directors' meetings held on Sunday.

Dacca Dyeing & Manufacturing

The Dacca Dyeing & Manufacturing Company reported a significantly higher loss in FY25 compared to the previous year. During the fiscal year, the company incurred a net loss of Tk50.72 crore, up sharply from a loss of Tk22.49 crore in FY24.

As a result, the company's loss per share (EPS) rose to Tk5.82 in FY25, marking a 126% increase from Tk2.58 in the previous year. Despite the higher losses, the company's net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk25.71 at the end of FY25.

On Monday, the company's share price increased by 1.12% to Tk18.10 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), indicating some investor interest despite weak financial performance.

To approve the audited financial statements, the no-dividend declaration, and other agenda items, the company has scheduled its annual general meeting (AGM) for January 16, 2026. However, the record date for shareholders' eligibility has not yet been fixed.

The company also posted poor performance in the July–September quarter of FY25. During the quarter, Dacca Dyeing reported a loss per share of Tk1.51, compared to a loss of Tk0.44 in the same period of the previous year, reflecting continued financial pressure. The no-dividend declaration reflects the company's ongoing challenges amid rising costs, operational difficulties, and weak business conditions in the textile sector.

Alltex Industries

Alltex Industries reported a net loss for the fiscal year 2024–25, continuing the downward trend from the previous year. The company incurred a net loss of Tk1 crore in FY25, compared to a loss of Tk0.56 crore in FY24. Its loss per share (EPS) rose sharply to Tk0.18 from Tk0.01 in the previous fiscal year, reflecting a significant increase in financial pressure. Despite the losses, the company's net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk24.77 at the end of FY25.

On Monday, Alltex Industries' share price fell by 2.16% to Tk13.40 on the DSE, indicating limited investor interest due to weak financial performance.

Regarding the AGM, the company will notify shareholders of the date, time, and venue after obtaining the condonation of delay from the Honorable High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh. The record date for shareholders' eligibility to attend the AGM has been fixed on 7 January 2026.

Brazil has emerged as the main supplier of raw cotton for Bangladesh, one of the world's top cotton importers and the second-largest garment exporter, surpassing neighbouring India, according to a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

In the marketing year 2024–25 (MY25), beginning in August, Bangladesh imported 8.28 million bales of raw cotton. Brazil supplied about 1.9 million bales, accounting for 23 percent of total imports.

India was the second-largest supplier with 1.4 million bales, followed by Benin (1.06 million bales), Cameroon (616,538 bales), and the United States (595,902 bales).

The USDA report said that Brazilian cotton has become popular among Bangladeshi spinners due to its competitive pricing, wide availability during harvest, and stable supply.

In MY24, India was the top supplier, exporting 1.79 million bales (23 percent share). Bangladeshi importers mainly bought Indian cotton for shorter shipment times via the Kolkata and Benapole ports, despite higher prices and some quality issues.

For the current marketing year, MY26, the USDA forecasts Bangladesh's cotton imports at 8.4 million bales, a 1.4 percent increase from MY25, driven by higher usage by local spinners. This is 5.2 percent higher than the 7.8 million bales imported in MY24.

The report highlighted that cotton imports remained stable throughout MY25, despite early disruptions in RMG production following the formation of a new interim government in August 2024 after former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled amid a student-led uprising in July.

Domestic cotton production is, however, expected to remain unchanged at 153,000 bales, limited by land scarcity and the long growing period, with cotton cultivated on 45,000–46,000 hectares.

Bangladesh's textile industry has the capacity to consume about 15 million bales annually, depending on raw material availability, power supply, and yarn demand.

Currently, only half of this capacity is being used, with raw cotton consumption estimated at 8.3 million bales in MY25. The USDA projects consumption will rise to 8.5 million bales in MY26, a 2.4 percent increase, driven by higher expected imports.

The spinning industry uses raw cotton to produce cotton and blended yarn, with yarn production expected to increase to 1.9 million tonnes in MY26 from 1.7 million tonnes.

Despite rising raw cotton imports and usage, Bangladesh's readymade garment industry is still expected to import more yarn and fabric.

India remains the largest supplier of cotton yarn to Bangladesh due to its large spinning industry, shorter shipment times, and lower logistics costs, while China is the top fabric exporter, followed by Pakistan and India.

The top fifty business groups have taken Tk 3.65 lakh crore in loans against only Tk 90,000 crore in collateral, while about Tk 1.2 lakh crore of their loans has already turned defaulted, according to a Bangladesh Bank assessment.

The findings showed that a few borrowers hold a disproportionate share of the country’s bad loans, deepening the credit concentration risk in the banking sector.

The central bank’s internal review showed that loan exposure to large groups has reached a critical level.Daily newspaper subscription

Out of Tk 16.80 lakh crore in total loans and advances as of March 2025, 62.59 per cent—or Tk 10.52 lakh crore—went to a limited number of large business conglomerates.

Officials said borrowers with loan exposure above Tk 50 crore are classified as large borrowers.

Major groups in this category include S Alam Group, Bashundhara Group, Beximco Group, Orion Group, Nassa Group and Nabil Group.

Such heavy concentration means the health of the banking sector now depends on the repayment ability of very few borrowers.

If one major group defaults, the shock could spill across several banks at once.

Bangladesh Bank data shows that overall classified loans stood at Tk 4.2 lakh crore, or 24.82 per cent, in March 2025.

Among large borrowers, the default ratio was even higher at 27.11 per cent, meaning more than a quarter of their loans have become non-performing.

Large loan accounts have also seen heavy rescheduling and restructuring.

Rescheduled or restructured loans in the large borrower segment total Tk 1.14 lakh crore, nearly 11 per cent of all loans in this category.

Yet many groups still failed to return to regular repayment status, adding to the rising stock of defaults.

The situation has worsened in recent months. By September 2025, non-performing loans across the banking system climbed to Tk 6.44 lakh crore—almost double within a year—as the central bank began revealing the actual financial state of banks after the fall of the previous government.

More than Tk 4 lakh crore of these loans remain stuck in court cases, while another Tk 1.5 lakh crore cannot be classified as default because of widespread court stay orders.

Economists warned that such extreme concentration of credit among a handful of groups poses systemic risks.

A single major default could trigger financial instability, given the size of their exposures and linkages with various banks.

They also argue that years of political patronage, lenient regulation and repeated rescheduling helped large borrowers accumulate massive unpaid loans.

Bangladesh Bank said it is now working on tightening rescheduling rules, improving loan recovery and closing legal loopholes that defaulters have long used to delay repayment.Travel guide book

But experts caution that unless concentration risk is addressed through stricter lending standards and better oversight, the banking sector will remain vulnerable.

The Alliance for Health Reforms Bangladesh (AHRB) has called on the chief adviser to personally prioritise and oversee the rapid implementation of the National Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) Policy, citing its critical importance to Bangladesh's economic resilience and public health security.

An open letter was issued today, signed by Syed Abdul Hamid, convener of AHRB and professor at the Institute of Health Economics of the University of Dhaka, and Syed Muhammad Akram Hussain, chairman of the Department of Clinical Oncology at Bangladesh Medical University and member of the Health Sector Reform Commission.

The alliance underscored the urgency of reducing dependence on imported pharmaceutical raw materials.

The letter said that despite meeting around 98 percent of domestic medicine demand, Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on imported APIs—materials essential for drug production.

This overdependence, the letter warns, not only drains valuable foreign exchange reserves but also exposes the nation to global supply chain disruptions, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, said AHRB.

The Health Sector Reform Commission has already identified local API production, alongside vaccines, medical devices, and diagnostics, as a national strategic priority.

The letter urges the government to treat this policy as more than a bureaucratic reform, but rather a foundational investment in the country's future economic security and health sovereignty.

To ensure rapid progress in strengthening Bangladesh's pharmaceutical self-reliance, AHRB has outlined five urgent priorities in its appeal to the chief adviser.

These include the swift removal of regulatory and infrastructural hurdles currently obstructing API production, along with the introduction of a competitive Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to attract domestic and foreign investment.

The alliance also stresses the need for sustained public funding to advance pharmaceutical research and innovation, as well as the creation of strong, institutionalised partnerships between academia and industry to facilitate technology transfer and develop a skilled scientific workforce.

Finally, AHRB calls for the establishment of an empowered, permanent inter-ministerial task force with full authority to ensure coordinated, time-bound implementation of the National API Policy.

AHRB further stressed that the policy holds the potential to transform Bangladesh into a regional pharmaceutical export hub, with significant gains in foreign exchange savings, skilled employment, and a boost in the country's tax-to-GDP ratio.

"The time for action is now," the letter said, urging the CA and the finance adviser to lead the charge and ensure the policy does not remain on paper but delivers measurable impact for the nation.

While the US Federal Reserve's final interest rate meeting this year could see an unusual amount of division, financial markets view a third straight interest rate cut as nearly certain.

When the Fed last met in October, Chair Jerome Powell asserted that another rate cut in December was "not a foregone conclusion," pointing to "strongly differing views" within the central bank.

Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting showed many officials expect a further uptick in underlying goods inflation as President Donald Trump's tariffs bite.

But recent comments from leading Fed officials also reflected support for cutting again because of a weakening labor market, even though inflation is still above the Fed's two percent target.

Next week's outcome in the "deeply divided" Fed was "too close to call," UniCredit said, also acknowledging that favorable comments from New York Fed bank chief John Williams towards a cut were a notable "intervention."

"As one of the most senior members of the (Fed committee), it seems unlikely Williams would have said this without Powell's prior approval," UniCredit said.

Policymakers generally hold rates at a higher level to tamp down price increases, but a rapidly deteriorating jobs market could nudge them to slash rates further to boost the economy.

"Usually, as you get closer to a policy meeting, it becomes quite apparent and transparent what the Federal Open Market Committee is going to do," said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, referring to the Fed's rate-setting committee.

"This time is very different," she told AFP late last month.

Financial markets rallied following Williams' statement on November 21 that rates could go lower in the "near term."

Futures markets currently show more than 87 percent odds that the Fed will cut rates to between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent, according to CME FedWatch.

The Fed moved into rate cutting mode this fall, with rate cuts both in September and October.

But a government shutdown from October 1 through November 12 sapped the central bank of most of the key data points for assessing whether inflation or employment is now the bigger priority.

The latest available government data showed the jobless rate crept up from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent in September, even as hiring beat expectations.

While delayed publications on September's economic conditions have trickled out, the US government has canceled full releases of October jobs and consumer inflation figures because the shutdown hit data collection.

Instead, available figures will be published with November's reports, but only after the Fed's upcoming rate meeting.

The US personal consumption expenditures price index rose to 2.8 percent on an annual basis in September, from 2.7 percent in August, according to delayed data released on Friday.

The "Fed faces a bit of a paradoxical situation," said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. "The Fed says these decisions will be data-dependent, but there isn't a lot of data to go on."

Daco expects a "weak majority" to favor another interest rate cut, but believes there could be multiple dissents.

Besides Wednesday's decision, the Fed will also release projections for its 2026 economic and monetary policy outlook.

Next year will already mark a period of significant change with the conclusion of Powell's tenure as chair in May.

Trump, who has relentlessly criticized Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively, signaled this week that his chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett could succeed Powell.

Hassett has appeared to be in lockstep with Trump on key economic questions facing the Fed. But if appointed, Hassett could also face pressure from financial markets to buck the White House on interest rates if inflation worsens.

"The institutional constraints often end up leading appointees towards some level of political independence," said Daco, noting decisions require a board majority.

Whomever Trump picks will need to be confirmed in the US Senate.

While UniCredit predicted "political interference will have a modest impact on Fed policy," deeper consequences cannot be ruled out.

"We have not assumed Trump will get de-facto control of the Fed," UniCredit said, adding that such an outcome is "a non-negligible risk."

Assets that rise rapidly above their long-term trend are usually set for a fall. That's what happened to gold after it peaked in late 1979. Over the following five years, the price of the yellow metal fell by nearly two-thirds. This year, gold has risen more than 60 percent in dollar terms, its best performance in 46 years. Adjusted for inflation, gold has never been more expensive. Either we are witnessing another bubble or it's a paradigm shift.

The precious metal known as the eternal store of value has retained its purchasing power over millennia. On examination, its market valuation tends to reflect different monetary regimes. Gold reset higher following the credit collapse of the 1920s, and jumped in the second half of the 1970s as the so-called "Great Inflation" took hold; over the next two decades it remained in the doldrums as price increases abated and real interest rates remained high; after Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in the early 2000s, gold enjoyed a long bull run. During the era of zero interest rates and quantitative easing from 2008 to 2022 the price was volatile but its upward trend continued.

By the turn of this decade it had become received wisdom that gold moves inversely with long-term real interest rates. Thus its value swooned in 2022 when central banks tightened the cost of borrowing and bond yields climbed. Then something unexpected happened: gold started to rise exponentially even as inflation turned down and inflation-adjusted bond yields rose.

Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, a firm that invests in microcap gold miners, says this regime shift was caused by then US President Joe Biden's decision to seize Russian foreign exchange reserves following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This act shook the foundations of the international monetary system in which the US dollar had long served as lynchpin. Reserve managers at a number of central banks started looking for an asset that could not be seized and was not the liability of another sovereign. They returned to the original reserve asset: gold.

During each of the past three years, central banks have purchased over a thousand of tonnes of bullion. Goldman Sachs expects these official purchases to continue into next year. A number of central banks in the emerging world still own relatively little gold. Earlier this year, for instance, China's reported holdings as a share of its total foreign exchange reserves stood at only 6.5 percent, although some analysts believe Beijing's official gold reserves massively understate the true size of its hoard.

At first glance, the gold chart over the past three years looks like a classic investment bubble. But the irrational exuberance that normally accompanies a mania is absent. Speculators are too busy obsessing about cryptocurrencies and anything related to artificial intelligence to pay much attention to the barbarous relic. The number of ounces of gold held in exchange-traded funds remains more than 10 percent below the October 2020 high, according to Caesar Bryan, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund. Furthermore, the number of shares outstanding in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which invests in publicly traded companies involved in gold and silver mining, has fallen by around a third from the 2020 peak.

Bryan observes that Wall Street remains unenthusiastic about gold's prospects. The consensus gold price for 2028 projected by investment analysts is nearly $1,000 below the current spot price. The 1970s gold bull market was extremely volatile, with a number of painful drawdowns. Gold investors have been bracing for a correction, but until now every minor setback has quickly reversed. Bryan has witnessed many bull and bear markets over his four decades in the gold business, but, he says, "it does feel different this time."

The monetary and fiscal background to the 1979 bubble and the current day could hardly be more different. At the end of the 1970s the United States was a significant international creditor. Today, it's the world's largest debtor. Back then US government debt was around 30 percent of GDP. Today, it is nearly four times higher. For the past three years, the US fiscal deficit has averaged around 6 percent of GDP, roughly four times higher than the budget shortfall in 1979.

By the end of that year, the Fed Funds Rate was at 14 percent and rising. Today, the policy rate is below 4 percent and falling. Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker was an inflation hawk. President Donald Trump has made it clear that is not what he is looking for in the central bank's next boss. Besides, high leverage in the US financial system and elevated asset valuations suggest any attempt to emulate Volcker's hard-money stance would end in disaster.

Myrmikan's Oliver points out that the Fed's balance sheet in 1979 was robust. In those days, its assets were mostly invested in short-dated government securities and, thanks to the elevated gold price, the value of its gold holdings exceeded its monetary liabilities. Today, the US central bank's balance sheet is stuffed with long-dated securities, including mortgage-backed bonds, that have produced large paper losses in recent years. The market value of the Fed's gold reserves has risen, says Oliver, but still cover only 16 percent of its liabilities, far below the historic average.

Thus, it's not unreasonable to conclude that the rising gold price reflects a host of fiscal, financial and geopolitical uncertainties.

However, if the bull run is to persist another paradigm shift is necessary. Central bankers have significantly increased their gold holdings, but most investors have not. That has proved a costly mistake. According to Goldman Sachs, the optimal portfolio over the last 10 years would have held half its assets in gold.

Asset allocators generally view government bonds as a safe asset to offset volatile equities. In recent years, however, bonds have become positively correlated with equities. During bouts of financial turbulence, both asset classes tend to go down. Gold has provided better protection: when the US stock market sold off in the first quarter of this year, gold shone. Enthusiasts never cease reminding us that gold is the only genuine risk-free asset. Private investors currently have negligible exposure to the precious metal. A little rational exuberance on their part and gold really would take off.

US consumer pricing and sentiment reports released Friday pointed to lingering questions about affordability as the calendar moves towards the peak of the festive season.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred data point for measuring inflation, rose to 2.8 percent on an annual basis in September from 2.7 percent in August.

When food and energy prices were excluded, prices also rose by 2.8 percent in September. However, that was below the 2.9 percent reading in August for the same benchmark.

The mixed report, delayed due to the US federal government shutdown, is the last major inflation reading before the Fed's rate decision next week.

The figures were largely in line with expectations, but included notable increases in some categories that have strained consumers. Durable goods like automobiles, appliances and furniture rose 1.4 percent from a year ago.

A separate report showed consumer sentiment rose in December to 53.3 from 51.0 in November, according to the University of Michigan.

However, consumers today have a diminished outlook for their expected personal income compared with early in 2025 and labor market expectations "remained relatively dismal," said survey director Joanne Hsu.

"Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices," she said.

The data did not significantly move the US stock market on Friday. Stocks are up modestly for the week, due partly to expectations the Fed will cut interest rates next week.

The Fed has cut interest rates at its last two meetings following indications of a slowdown in the US employment market.

But the Fed has also kept an eye on inflation due to the risk that President Donald Trump's tariffs could reignite a major increase in prices.

EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco predicted the US central bank would cut rates as expected next week, but could face multiple dissents.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will "persuade several hesitant policymakers to support a third consecutive 'risk management' rate cut, while signaling firmly that additional easing is unlikely before next spring absent a material weakening in economic conditions," Daco said in a note.

Friday's pricing data revealed a "gradual and uneven" tariff pass-through on goods, "exacerbating the affordability crisis," Daco said.

"While many businesses have absorbed cost pressures using pre-tariff inventories and narrower margins, these buffers are slowly eroding," said Daco, who expects rising inflation in late 2025 and early 2026, "further complicating the consumer outlook amid softening labor-market dynamics."

More than Tk 4 lakh crore in defaulted loans remain locked in over 2.22 lakh cases in money-loan courts, putting further strain on the already fragile banking sector and dragging on the wider economy.

Bangladesh Bank data show that as of June, 222,341 cases involving Tk 407,435 crore were pending across the courts.

Recently, a growing number of banks have filed cases in money-loan courts against major loan defaulters, including S Alam Group, Beximco Group, and Nassa Group.

Over just the last three months, the number of lawsuits rose by 2,708, while the amount tied up in litigation surged by Tk 86,674 crore, the data show.

At the end of March, pending cases stood at 219,633 with Tk 320,761 crore under dispute, according to figures compiled by the central bank's Law Department.

Despite the surge in lawsuits, central bank officials say the strategy has yielded limited success as case disposal rates remain far lower than the pace at which new cases are being filed.

Between April and June, courts disposed of 11,944 cases, enabling banks to recover Tk 2,910 crore. During the same period, lenders filed 14,652 new cases involving Tk 96,904 crore.

In the January-March quarter of this year, banks disposed of 10,064 cases and recovered Tk 1,833 crore.

Bankers and industry insiders say many of the disputed loans involve irregularities or fraud, and that repeated waivers and rescheduling schemes have failed to bring defaulters back to repayment. Although banks are legally required to file cases to pursue recovery, progress remains slow due to systemic bottlenecks.

The number of money-loan courts is insufficient, they said, and delays are compounded by shortages of judges and by banks not providing lawyers with timely documentation, including collateral papers.

The consequences are mounting. A central bank report warned that the vast sums trapped in litigation are inflicting heavy losses on lenders and weighing on the overall economy.

Md Omar Faruk Khan, managing director of Islami Bank Bangladesh, recently said the bank would adopt a tougher stance against major defaulters, including S Alam Group, noting that its own stock of bad loans has approached Tk 100,000 crore.

The bank has already filed several cases in this regard.

To accelerate recoveries, the Bangladesh Bank has instructed lenders to act under Section 12(3) of the Money Loan Court Act 2003, including issuing auction notices and seeking expedited hearings to vacate High Court stay orders.

Banks have also been advised to file civil miscellaneous petitions with the Appellate Division's Chamber Judge to lift such stays and clear the way for resolution.

The government has allowed 50 companies to import 1,500 tonnes of onions from India, aiming to stabilise the domestic onion market.

The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) issued the import permits (IPs) on Sunday (7 December) after automatic system-based verification and selection.

Confirming the matter, Agriculture Adviser Lt Gen (retd) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury told the media that each importer will receive the IP only once, and each permit will allow the import of up to 30 tonnes. "A total of 50 such IPs will be issued per day."

He said the government has given the import permission to stabilise the domestic market.

Govt allows onion import on limited scale to stabilise market

"Onion prices shot up suddenly by Tk40–45 per kg. After Saturday's announcement permitting imports, prices have already come down slightly," he added.

The adviser alleged that a section of traders had manipulated the market. "These manipulations hurt both farmers and consumers. We must identify these syndicates. Our aim is to ensure that neither farmers nor consumers suffer."

According to DAE sources, around 3,500 IP applications have been submitted so far. Of them, 50 were selected on Sunday based on who could access the server earlier, as the system prioritised applications logged in ahead of others.

The newly issued IPs will remain valid until 31 March 2026.

On 6 December, the agriculture ministry announced that import permits would be issued in response to retail prices crossing Tk150 per kg within a week. The circular also clarified that only those who applied for IPs after 1 August will be eligible.

Market visits on Sunday showed a slight decline in retail onion prices in Dhaka, where onions were selling at Tk140 per kg – down by Tk10 – following the import announcement.

The number of bank accounts holding deposits of over Tk1 crore continued to increase in Bangladesh between July and September, even as the total volume of deposits in these accounts declined sharply, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

During the July-September quarter, 734 new crore-taka accounts were added, bringing the total to 1,28,070 at the end of September, up from 1,27,336 recorded at the end of the June quarter.

Despite the rise in account numbers, deposits in these high-value accounts fell significantly. At the end of June, crore-taka accounts held Tk8,80,772 crore, which dropped to Tk8,21,562 crore by the end of September – marking a reduction of Tk59,210 crore in three months.

The overall number of bank accounts in the country also increased during this period. Total accounts rose from 16.90 crore at the end of June to 17.45 crore at the end of September, reflecting an addition of 55.94 lakh accounts.

The growth in crore-taka accounts has been steady throughout the year. Between April and June, the number rose from 1,21,362 to 1,27,336 – an increase of 5,974 accounts.

Bangladesh Bank officials noted that crore-taka accounts do not necessarily indicate individual crore-owning customers.

Many such accounts belong to institutions, government agencies, or multiple accounts operated by the same person or organisation.

According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data, the number of crore-taka accounts stood at 1,16,908 in December 2023, increasing to 1,21,362 in December 2024.

By the September quarter of this fiscal year, the figure reached 1,28,070.

Unionised workers in Bangladesh's readymade garment (RMG) industry earn about 10% higher wages than non-unionised RMG and non-RMG workers, according to a new study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

The findings, presented at the Annual BIDS Conference on Development 2025 in Dhaka today (7 December), show an overall unionisation rate of 11.35% among manufacturing workers.

The study, based on a 2024 survey of 3,005 workers across 20 industries, found that the wage premium for unionised workers remains statistically significant even after controlling for experience and tenure.

Presenting the study titled 'Wage earnings of manufacturing workers in Bangladesh: Do trade unions matter?', BIDS Research Director Mahmudul Hasan said workers in the RMG sector earn 19%-22% higher wages overall due to stronger compliance regimes, more formal structures, and higher skill requirements.

However, within the RMG sector itself, the study detected no significant wage difference between unionised and non-unionised workers once industry-level compliance and worker characteristics were considered. According to Mahmudul Hasan, this suggests that unions create a general wage premium across manufacturing, while compliance standards in RMG eliminate wage gaps within the sector but widen disparities between RMG and non-RMG industries.

The study recommends easing legal thresholds for union formation, expanding worker representation in smaller factories, and strengthening collective bargaining to ensure fairer wage negotiations. A stronger union presence, it notes, could help reduce industrial unrest by fostering dialogue among workers, employers, and the government.

In another presentation at the conference, BIDS Senior Research Fellow Mohammad Harunur Rashid Bhuyan highlighted ongoing challenges in ensuring decent work for the country's 4.22 million garment workers. He said rising temperatures inside factories pose health risks and reduce productivity, while increasing numbers of climate refugees entering the workforce may exert downward pressure on wages.

Bhuyan noted that some garment firms have started hiring personnel to manage sustainability-related upgrading programmes, and that digitisation is creating new job opportunities as more tasks shift from buyers to local manufacturers.

On environmental issues, he said short-term profitability continues to drive decision-making, limiting investments in green upgrades unless required by buyers' codes of conduct. Despite government targets to generate 30% of electricity from renewable sources by 2041, only 1.4% of power came from renewables in 2019, posing a major obstacle for environmental improvements in the RMG sector.

He stressed the need for policies to support economic upgrading, prioritise decent work, and expand access to renewable, green energy to ensure sustainable development in the industry.

The Bangladesh Vegetable Oil Refiners and Vanaspati Manufacturers Association has announced an increase in the retail prices of edible oil, raising the rates of bottled soybean and palm oil with effect from tomorrow morning.

In a media release issued this evening (7 December), the association said a litre of bottled soybean oil will now be sold at Tk195, up from Tk189.

The price of loose soybean oil has also been increased by Tk7 per litre, setting the new rate at Tk176, compared to the previous Tk169.

The price of a five-litre bottle of soybean oil has been fixed at Tk955, rising by Tk33 from Tk922.

Govt, traders at odds over edible oil price hike

Palm oil prices have seen a sharper rise, with the rate increasing by Tk16 per litre to Tk166, from the earlier price of Tk150.

According to the association, the revised rates have been set in consultation with the commerce ministry, aligning local prices with the international market.

On 10 November, refiners wrote to the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission seeking approval for a price hike amid rising global market rates and moved ahead with the increase from 24 November without the commerce ministry's consent.

The move triggered warnings from Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin, prompting a meeting between officials and traders on 4 December.

Following the discussions, companies rolled back part of the increase.

Traders who hiked edible oil price by Tk9 without govt approval will face action: Commerce adviser

Under the Control of Essential Commodities Act 1956, the commerce ministry issued the Essential Goods Marketing and Distributor Appointment Order-2011.

It states that producers, refiners and importers of essential commodities may adjust prices through their trade associations – but must notify the ministry's monitoring cell, district administrators and upazila executive officers at least 15 days beforehand.

Traders claim they followed these procedures for the current increase.

In June 2021, the ministry also formed a high-level committee, including business representatives, to align edible oil prices with international market trends.

In August, the committee approved a slight price reduction following a global fall in prices. But in October, companies again tried to increase prices without approval, citing rising international rates.

The commerce adviser then warned that such action was unacceptable, and refiners backed down.

Bangladesh's external debt has risen sharply over the past five years, with total foreign borrowing climbing 42% amid rapidly increasing repayment pressure, according to the International Debt Report 2025 released by the World Bank today (7 December).

World Bank data shows that by the end of 2024, Bangladesh's total external debt stood at $104.48 billion, up from $73.55 billion in 2020. The calculation includes debts contracted by both the government and the private sector.

Although foreign borrowing has not grown significantly in recent years, the cost of servicing past loans has surged. In 2020, Bangladesh paid $3.73 billion in principal and interest.

By 2024, the amount nearly doubled to $7.35 billion, underscoring mounting repayment pressure.

Over the past decade, Bangladesh borrowed heavily to finance several flagship infrastructure projects, including the nuclear power plant, metro rail, power plants, airport terminal expansion, river tunnel, and elevated expressways. Repayment has already begun for several of these mega projects, with more coming due soon.

Despite this rise in repayment obligations, loan disbursements have remained relatively flat. In 2024, net disbursement stood at $11.10 billion, only slightly higher than $10.22 billion five years earlier.

According to the report, Bangladesh's external debt amounted to 192% of its export earnings in 2024. Total debt-service payments accounted for 16% of exports during the same period.

The World Bank identifies Bangladesh as one of the countries where external debt repayment pressure is rising rapidly. While the report does not rank countries numerically, Sri Lanka is the only other South Asian nation flagged in a similar category.

Bangladesh remains among the top recipients of concessional loans from the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA). Together with Nigeria and Pakistan, the three countries receive 30% of total IDA commitments.

Bangladesh alone sourced around 26% of its total external debt from the World Bank, followed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Japan.

Global Heavy Chemicals, a leading industrial chemical manufacturer, reported a hefty loss and announced no dividend for the fiscal year 2024-25, attributing the setback to a severe regional gas shortage. The decision was made during the company's board meeting on Thursday.

For FY 2024-25, the company posted a loss per share (LPS) of Tk2.19, down from Tk7.58 in the previous year, with a net loss of Tk15.77 crore compared to Tk54.58 crore in FY 2023-24. Its net asset value per share stood at Tk71.89 at the close of the fiscal year.

Following the disclosure, Global Heavy's shares fell sharply on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, dropping 7.27% to close at Tk20.40 on Sunday. The company has not yet fixed a date for its annual general meeting (AGM) to approve the no-dividend recommendation and other agenda items, though the record date has been set for 29 December 2025.

Company Secretary Khondoker Ahadduzzaman told The Business Standard that the company is grappling with a severe production crisis due to the ongoing gas shortage, which has forced an 85% halt in operations. The limited remaining production, powered by electricity, is insufficient to cover costs, resulting in continuous losses.

Global Heavy has repeatedly urged Titas Gas to resolve the issue, but the supplier has stated it cannot increase gas pressure until the broader shortage is addressed, leaving the company's production and financial health in jeopardy.

The firm has faced challenges for several years, with declining profits prompting customers to turn to alternative suppliers. Incorporated in 2000 and listed in 2013, Global Heavy Chemicals has been a key player in Bangladesh's chlor-alkali sector, producing import substitutes such as caustic soda, hydrochloric acid, bleaching powder, chlorine, sodium hypochlorite, and chlorinated paraffin wax, while also exporting chlorine to India.

Beyond industrial chemicals, the company manufactures toiletries and household cleaning products, including disinfectants, dishwashing liquids, and floor and toilet cleaners. As of 31 October 2025, sponsors and directors hold 68.60% of shares, institutional investors 10.71%, and the general public 20.69%.

Trading at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) began on a positive note on Thursday, while the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) opened lower.

During the first hour, DSE's key index, DSEX, gained 7 points, as per a UNB report.

The Shariah-based DSES also edged up by 2 points, while the blue-chip DS30 index remained unchanged.

Most participating companies at the DSE saw price appreciation: 195 advanced, 108 declined, and 73 remained unchanged.

The turnover in the first half exceeded Tk 1.30 billion.

Meanwhile, the CSE continued its downward trend, with its broad index falling by 6 points.

A total of 27 issues advanced, 50 declined, and 14 remained unchanged.

The turnover at the CSE reached Tk 70 million during the same period.

Commercial banks in Bangladesh are now given a cutoff time until end of this month to significantly downsize mounting non-performing loans to clean up their year-end balance sheets.

Spelling out this direction at a meeting with bankers Sunday, the central bank high-ups suggested top executives of the banks to go by all the instructions the banking regulator recently issued regarding the policy support for the revival of the ailing businesses and partial write-off facility to cleanse the banks' balance sheets.

The Bangladesh Bank top management led by its governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur made the instructions at the bankers' meeting with the top executives of the country's commercial banks at the BB headquarters.

The FE correspondent talked to nearly a dozen of the managing directors and chief executive officers of the scheduled banks to know the outcomes of the meeting but all of them agreed to share what transpired in the consultation on condition that they not be quoted by name.

The managing director and chief executive officer of a private bank said the BB governor told them that ratio of classified loans in the banking industry rose as high as to nearly 36 per cent until September last, which is a matter of "serious concern to everyone".

The governor instructed the bank executives to pay serious attention to NPL management and execute all the instructions the regulator recently issued through circulars regarding policy support for reviving the struggling businesses and partial write-off facility for the banks.

"If the banks implement the instructions properly, a significant volume of NPLs is expected to be come down by end of this December," the BB governor was quoted by the bank executive as saying.

Another top executive of a private bank says they raised the problem that arises in terms of providing policy support because a significant number of people coming to get the policy support do not have the capacity even to pay 2.0-percent down payment, which is mandatory.

At the same time, he says, the commercial banks need to see the cash flow of the policy-support-seekers for the next 10 years before approving the facility to them. "The fact is majority of them do not have cash flow, which needs to be certified by a registered auditor. In fact, most of them are not eligible to get such support."

He adds about the dilemma: "If we allow them based on fictional cash-flow calculations, we would get into fresh problem, which the bankers don't want."

Apart from NPLs, another bank top executive says they also requested the regulator to reduce the existing provisioning margin of 1.0 per cent in terms of financing SMEs. Earlier, the provisioning requirement was 0.25 per cent which was enhanced to 1.0 per cent few months ago.

The bankers also requested the central bank to align the nano-loan with CIB (credit information bureau).

The central bank also instructed the banks to pay more focus on digital transformation to ensure cashless society, SME and agri-financing.

The volume of classified loans in the banking sector rose to Tk 6.44 trillion by end of September last, which accounts for 35.73 per cent of the loans disbursed by the banking system. The figure was Tk 4.20 trillion by March this year.

Founding chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh M Masrur Reaz says it is practically difficult to bring down the existing stock of NPLs because a significant portion of the money has gone to ghost or weak companies and a part of those was laundered.

If the bank executives become careful in NPL management through ensuring credit governance and properly handle risk management, the fresh flow of the possible classified loans can be avoided, he suggests.

Expressing concern over delay in implementing various institutional and legal reforms like expediting money-loan court and out-of-court resolutions and the introduction of distress-management company.

"It has been 15 months since the governance restoration has taken place. I think these (reform measures) should have been in place now," he tells the FE.

The upward trend in remittances sent by expatriate Bangladeshis has continued into December, with the country receiving approximately US $632 million in the first six days of the month.

According to the latest update from Bangladesh Bank (BB), the $632 million remittance figure for December 1-6 is an increase of approximately $38 million compared to the same period last year. In December of the previous year (2024), the country received around $594 million in the first six days.

The growth is attributed to several factors, including incentives offered for sending money through legal banking channels, increased encouragement for using the formal system, and the active role of exchange houses.

Remittance inflow has shown robust growth throughout the current fiscal year (FY 2025-26). From July 1 to December 6, 2025, the total remittance inflow reached $13.67 billion. This represents an increase of $1.939 billion compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year (FY 2024-25), when the total stood at $11.732 billion. The year-on-year growth rate for the fiscal year to date is 16.5 percent.

As the true scale of long-hidden non-performing loans (NPLs) began to emerge following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, the central bank has advised commercial bank managing directors (MDs) to go for loan restructuring and implement a "partial write-off" facility to combat the country's record-high defaulted debt.

Speaking at a bankers' meeting with MDs yesterday, Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur stressed the need for robust recovery measures to reduce NPLs, which hit an unprecedented Tk6.44 lakh crore, representing 35.73% of total loans, as of September this year.

The NPL figure surged from Tk2.11 lakh crore (12.5% of total loans) in June before the government transition, and Tk3.45 lakh crore (20.20%) in December last year.

Partial write-off and policy directives

Bangladesh Bank on 4 December officially allowed banks to partially write off bad and loss-category loans that have a slim chance of recovery. This move is primarily aimed at reducing the stated size of NPLs on bank balance sheets.

Sirajul Islam, executive director of the central bank, told TBS that MDs were instructed to diligently comply with policy support circulars aimed at rehabilitating the business and financial systems of distressed borrowers.

He added that the governor specifically advised banks to use the partial write-off for impaired and loss-category loans.

A managing director of a private bank present at the meeting said that the governor recommended offering rescheduling facilities to borrowers willing to regularise their loans, in line with existing policy guidelines.

He also highlighted the disproportionate allocation of credit to agriculture. "Agriculture contributes 14-15% to GDP, but receives just 2% of total loans," the governor said, urging banks to raise agricultural lending to over 10%.

The governor further advised banks to accelerate SME lending, recommending a 20% growth target for CMSME portfolios.

Mansur assured MDs that the provisioning requirement for CMSME loans would be reduced from 1% to 0.5%.

During the meeting, a bank chief inquired about previous requests to raise loan limits – personal loans from Tk20 lakh to Tk4 crore, and credit card limits from Tk20 lakh to Tk40 lakh. The governor asked deputy governors why the proposals had not advanced.

Rescheduling scheme fails to curb rising defaults

Despite approval of a special long-term restructuring scheme for businesses, NPLs have continued to rise, largely due to poor implementation by banks.

Bankers argue that the scheme, which includes a two-year grace period and just 1-2% down payment, is unsafe for long-term restructuring as it exposes deposits to risk and hampers recovery. They say many influential borrowers receive approval but refuse to negotiate with banks afterward.

Businesses, however, claim banks are obstructing implementation even after approval, placing a heavier burden on previous reschedulers while increasing new defaults.

They say Bangladesh Bank wants to compel banks to comply, but unless flaws in the policy are fixed, long-term rescheduling will neither succeed nor reduce default risk.

For more than forty years, Bangladesh has carried a remarkable story of economic transformation. A country rooted in agriculture built one of the world's most influential apparel industries through grit, discipline and a willingness to learn. The label "Made in Bangladesh" travelled across continents because workers and entrepreneurs believed they could do something bigger than their circumstances. That belief helped reshape the national economy and identity.

But today the landscape looks more uncertain. Export earnings have been falling for four consecutive months, a sign that the long-trusted engine is facing pressure. In November, Bangladesh exported goods worth $3.89 billion, about five and a half percent lower than the same month a year earlier, when the figure was $4.12 billion. According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), almost all major sectors saw declines in November. Apparel, jute, agricultural processed goods, home textiles, non-leather footwear, frozen food and plastics all registered drops. Only leather and leather goods managed to grow. Even apparel, the strongest pillar, was down by five percent.

These shifts are not happening in isolation. Global markets are adjusting to changing tariff regimes, political tensions and evolving consumption patterns. Buyers in key regions are reassessing costs, placing smaller orders and negotiating harder. A combination of price adjustments and softer demand has created a slowdown that is affecting several producing countries, including Bangladesh. This is a reminder that no matter how strong an industry may be, its fortunes can still be shaped by geopolitical forces beyond national control.

This is why the conversation on diversifying the export base feels more urgent than it did a decade ago. Bangladesh cannot rely on a single sector to sustain long-term growth. The apparel industry will remain a cornerstone, but it cannot be the only path to resilience. There are promising alternatives emerging. Plastics and packaging, furniture and light engineering, frozen and processed foods and software and digital services all show real potential. Some Bangladeshi companies in these sectors have already reached international markets, often with little coordinated support. Their progress suggests what is possible if the country takes a more organised approach.

To chart that path, it helps to recall how the apparel sector rose in the first place. In the early years, Bangladesh did not have world-class factories or ready access to buyers. What it did have was ambition and a willingness to build partnerships. Entrepreneurs collaborated with experienced international firms, and groups of young Bangladeshis travelled abroad for hands-on training. They returned with knowledge that reshaped the sector. These early professionals later became managers, production specialists and eventually, for some of them, entrepreneurs. Their learning created the backbone of a national industry.

The principle remains relevant today. Countries rarely diversify by working alone. New sectors grow when skills, technology and market access move across borders through partnerships that are commercially aligned. Bangladesh has the foundation for this model. Universities, institutes and NGOs have long experience in delivering training at scale. Development finance institutions are increasingly interested in supporting sectors that can mature into export industries. IFC and FCDO both came forward in the recent past. What is needed now is focus and coordination.

Diversification works best when a country chooses a few priority sectors and invests with discipline. That means building technical capacity, shaping supportive regulation, reducing friction for exporters and ensuring that early movers have the room to grow. When the focus is clear, industries can mature faster and attract stronger partnerships.

The apparel sector still has room to expand through new materials, automation, sustainability and access to emerging markets. But it cannot remain the only driver of an economy approaching half a trillion dollars. The recent decline in export earnings is not a crisis. It is a signal that the time has come to widen national horizons and move beyond a single engine.

The writer is an economic analyst and chairman at Financial Excellence Ltd

Inflation in Bangladesh rose to 8.29 percent in November, driven largely by higher food prices, highlighting persistent pressures on households, especially those with low or fixed incomes.

The figure, released yesterday by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), is slightly higher than October's 8.17 percent but remains well below last year's 11.38 percent for the same month.

Data from the BBS show that the consumer price index (CPI), which tracks changes in a basket of goods and services, climbed in both rural and urban areas.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), essential food items such as rice, flour, edible oils, lentils and onions, have witnessed an increase in November. Besides, late autumn rain disrupted supplies and pushed up winter vegetable prices.

Bangladesh has been grappling with persistent inflation for nearly three years. Consumer prices stayed over 9 percent until May 2025 and have remained over 8 percent since then, sparking renewed debate about the effectiveness of recent economic policies.

"Despite minor fluctuations, there has been no meaningful change in the underlying trend," said Selim Raihan, a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka.

He noted that while the Bangladesh Bank has tried to curb aggregate demand by raising interest rates, such monetary adjustments alone have been insufficient to achieve lasting price stability.

"This is because gaps in policy coordination, structural weaknesses in markets, and external shocks have collectively kept inflation elevated," he added.

Raihan said the recent surge in prices of essential food items such as onions and vegetables has been a key driver of inflation.

"This clearly reveals how fragile the agricultural supply system remains and how limited competition in markets directly pushes consumer prices upward," he added.

Volatility in global markets and dependence on imports have further compounded the situation, Raihan, also executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), pointed out.

"In other words, current inflation is largely driven by supply-side pressures, where conventional monetary tools like raising interest rates have limited effects," he said.

Raihan added that addressing inflation requires not only monetary measures but deeper institutional reforms. These include disciplining anti-competitive market practices, improving supply-chain efficiency, ensuring transparency in trade and imports, and investing in agricultural production.

The economist said a lack of coordination among fiscal policy, monetary policy, and market oversight as a key obstacle to controlling prices. "Inflation today is not merely a macroeconomic indicator; it reflects institutional weaknesses and policy inconsistencies."

The solution, he said, lies in building a coherent, credible, and long-term policy environment. Economist Mustafa K Mujeri also made similar observations, saying that Bangladesh's prolonged high-inflation environment is unlikely to ease without stronger policy coordination beyond monetary tightening,

He said that the country has been living in a "high-inflation regime for more than three years," while the only major tool used so far has been monetary policy.

"The policy rate has been raised gradually and kept at around 10 percent for more than a year," he said, adding that the key policy gap is the absence of supportive measures to complement monetary tightening.

Striking a similar tone to Raihan, he said, "In Bangladesh, monetary policy alone cannot control inflation."

Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), highlighted that supply-side factors are a major driver of inflation in Bangladesh, limiting the effectiveness of interest-rate adjustments.

Election spending and non-productive expenditures in the coming months could push inflation even higher, he warned.

He said, "If the election is held in February, money circulation - both formal and informal - will rise.

"Candidates will spend heavily, and government expenditure on election-related activities will also increase. These are not production-oriented expenditures."

He added that investment-driven production growth is unlikely during this period, while Ramadan, traditionally associated with price hikes, is likely to further intensify pressures in March.

Mujeri said whichever government assumes office after the polls will need time to take effective policy measures, delaying any immediate stabilisation.