Non-performing loans (NPLs) at Islami Bank Bangladesh crossed Tk 1,00,000 crore by September after years of loan scams and lending irregularities tied to S Alam Group left the once very profitable commercial lender under severe strain.

At the end of September, total loans disbursed by the bank stood at Tk 1,81,860 crore. Of this, Tk 1,06,000 crore had turned bad, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB).

BB data show that more than half of the bank's portfolio had slipped into non-performing loans.

Bad loans rose by Tk 88,248 crore in just a year. At the end of September last year, the bank's defaults stood at Tk 17,752 crore, which accounted for 11 percent of its loans.

The commercial lender also faces a provision shortfall of Tk 85,886 crore. Banks set aside provisions as a buffer against losses, and such a large shortfall points to the scale of the damage.

Islami Bank officials said S Alam Group took out loans under both official titles and proxy names during the previous regime, when the conglomerate used to dominate the board. Many of these loans later fell into default.

They said misdeeds by one business group have pushed the bank to its current state.

After the fall of the Awami League government in a mass uprising in August last year, the bank was freed from the control of the S Alam Group. The central bank dissolved the bank board dominated by individuals linked to Chattogram-based S Alam Group.

The political changeover also exposed long-buried toxic assets that had piled up over the years. Since then, the shariah-based bank's balance sheet has been deteriorating.

Until June 2024, bad loans at the bank were only Tk 7,724 crore, or 4.42 percent of its loans. But within a month of the government's fall, defaults jumped to Tk 17,752 crore, or 11 percent.

NPLs at the bank rose to Tk 32,817 crore, or 21 percent, by the end of last year and reached Tk 47,618 crore, or 27.38 percent, by the end of March this year.

S ALAM ALONE TOOK OUT TK 70,000CR

S Alam Group maintained its hold over Islami Bank for around seven years. The bank's financial performance had weakened soon after the group began influencing decisions following an ownership takeover in 2017.

Between 2017 and August 2024, the group alone took out around Tk 70,000 crore through its own businesses and a series of shadow firms.

Loans were taken in the names of Mohammed Saiful Alam, chairman of S Alam Group, his family members, and several associates, according to central bank officials.

About Tk 66,507 crore of this amount had defaulted by the end of the September quarter.

Saiful Alam and several senior officials of the group are now on the run. The Daily Star could not reach them for comment.

Nabil Group, a close ally of S Alam Group, borrowed about Tk 13,000 crore under its own name and through anonymous entities. A portion of that amount has been rescheduled recently under a special policy, according to Islami Bank officials.

Contacted, Md Aminul Islam, managing director of Nabil Group, said, "The loans taken in the name of Nabil Group are regular, but I know nothing about the loans that were taken anonymously. I have never defaulted on any loan."

Other large borrowers of Islami Bank include Nassa Group, Noman Group, Deshbandhu Group, Jamuna Tyre, GMS Group, Murad Enterprise, AJ Trade International, Delta Group, Bashundhara Multifood Group and Mahmud Denims Ltd.

FUNDS STUCK ACROSS TROUBLED LENDERS

Islami Bank lent about Tk 10,000 crore to five banks that are now being merged. The lender has yet to recover the money.

A senior Islami Bank official said the central bank assured them that they would receive shares in the new merged bank instead of cash repayment.

Janata Bank also owes Tk 1,000 crore and has missed repayment, the official added.

Before the political changeover, Islami Bank had faced a severe liquidity crisis and even ran a deficit in its settlement account with the central bank.

Officials said the cash position has since stabilised and depositors are now

Source: Annual report

able to withdraw funds without difficulty, although the mountain of bad loans remains a cause for concern.

Contacted, Omar Faruk Khan, managing director and CEO of Islami Bank Bangladesh, said the bank's liquidity is now "very strong". He said the bank is stepping up loan recovery efforts through legal action and other means.

The lender has filed 488 cases against defaulters. These include 34 cases at the Artha Rin Adalat involving Tk 66,507 crore, 377 criminal cases, 1,881 involving Tk 19,996 crore, and 10 related to stock disposal worth Tk 28,064 crore.

Khan said they are prioritising cash recovery while allowing genuine businesses to reschedule their loans. "Our target is to bring down non-performing loans from 50 percent to 35 percent," he said.

He added that recovery has slowed as business activity remains sluggish ahead of national elections due next February.

"Besides, we are signing agreements with international legal firms to recover foreign assets. Our main target now is recovery," he told The Daily Star.

In 2023, Islami Bank recorded a net profit of Tk 635 crore, the highest in four years. Next year, net profit fell sharply to Tk 109 crore. During the January-September period this year, profit of the bank stood at Tk 99 crore, down from Tk 267 crore in the same period last year.

STAFF HIRED BY S ALAM REMOVED

Islami Bank has dismissed 4,685 employees who were allegedly recruited by S Alam Group without proper procedures. It has since hired 2,571 new staff.

An internal audit found that more than 10,000 of the bank's 21,000 employees had been appointed after the 2017 takeover.

Bank documents show that 7,224 people from Chattogram were hired between 2017 and 2024, with more than 4,500 from Patiya upazila alone -- the hometown of Saiful Alam.

M Kamal Uddin Jasim, additional managing director of the bank, said most of the 11,000 appointments made during the period were not transparent, with no official circulars issued.

He said those whose recruitment raised the most serious concerns had been dismissed.

The bank has recruited 1,400 trainee assistant officers (cash), 806 messengers cum guards and 365 security guards as part of its restructuring, he added.

The government has slashed development allocations for two major metro rail projects by record margins, with the flagship MRT Line-1 facing a reduction of more than 90% in the revised Annual Development Programme (RADP). Officials say the cuts reflect stalled tender processes, slow implementation and an ongoing review of project costs under the interim government.

The northern section of MRT Line-5 has also seen its budget fall by about 60%, while allocations for other large infrastructure schemes, including the Dhaka airport expansion and the Matarbari deep seaport, have been scaled back as spending needs fall short of earlier projections. Project authorities say limited progress and unresolved complexities in international tenders have left little scope to use the funds earmarked for the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the interim government has directed ministries and agencies to reassess several large projects amid concerns over cost escalation, slow-moving contracts and weaknesses in planning. Officials at Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited admit that construction costs of metro rail lines in Bangladesh appear significantly higher than in comparable cities, prompting the first formal cost review with Japan's development agency, Jica. Until the review is completed, key tender processes remain on hold.

While major cuts dominate the transport sector, allocations for the Rooppur nuclear power plant have remained unchanged, and the Dhaka–Ashulia Elevated Expressway is set to receive additional funding due to faster construction progress. The Planning Commission is expected to finalise the revised allocations later this month before placing them for approval at the National Economic Council in early January.

Projects stalled for reassessment

Planning Commission officials said that since the interim government took office, spending under several projects is being reviewed. As a result, activities under MRT Line-1 and Line-5 Northern have almost come to a halt.

Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL) officials said that after reviewing both ongoing and completed projects, they found that Metro Rail construction costs in Bangladesh are the highest among comparable countries – five times higher than India. Even Riyadh and Dubai have significantly lower per-kilometre construction costs despite using more advanced technology than Bangladesh.

For this reason, the cost of Bangladesh's ongoing Metro Rail projects is being reassessed. As part of that process, for the first time, DMTCL is initiating discussions with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) to review project costs. Until then, the tendering process remains suspended, meaning no significant spending will be required this fiscal year, leading to funds being returned.

MRT Line-1 project

In the current fiscal year's ADP, the Airport–Kamalapur MRT Line-1 project had an allocation of Tk8,631.43 crore. But in the revised ADP, the proposed allocation is only Tk801 crore. As a result, the project's allocation has decreased by around 90.72%.

Officials at the Planning Commission said the RADP allocation is set based on the demand submitted by implementing agencies. Since the implementing agency did not request funds for this project, the Planning Commission has proposed reducing the allocation.

MRT Line-5 Northern

The allocation for the ongoing MRT Line-5 Northern (Hemayetpur–Vatara) project is also decreasing by about 60.23%. Its original ADP allocation of Tk1,490.65 crore has been proposed to be reduced to Tk592.80 crore in the RADP.

Md Aftab Hossain Khan, project director of both MRT Line-1 and Line-5 Northern, told TBS that as tendering processes have not been completed, funds cannot yet be utilised. "International tenders involve various complexities and stages, and Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL) is working on them. Because of delays in tendering, the opportunity to spend funds has narrowed, leading to the return of funds in the RADP."

Three ongoing Metro Rail projects in Bangladesh are funded by Jica. Among these, MRT-6 (Uttara–Kamalapur) is nearing completion. MRT Line-1, costing Tk53,977 crore with Jica funding, and MRT Line-5 Northern, costing Tk41238.55 crore, are currently at the tendering stage.

MRT Line-6

According to Planning Commission sources, another ongoing Metro Rail project – Line-6 (Diabari–Kamalapur) – is also seeing a reduction of around Tk324 crore. In the current fiscal year's ADP, its allocation was Tk1347.44 crore. Trains are already operating on the Diabari–Motijheel section, while work continues on the Motijheel–Kamalapur extension.

Md Abdul Wohab, project director of Metro Rail Line-6, told TBS that they assessed their needs and found they would not require the full ADP allocation this year. So part of the allocation is being returned. He added that around 72% of work on the Motijheel–Kamalapur extension has been completed, and the goal is to open it for operation in January 2027.

Matarbari Port development project

Another priority mega project of the government – the Matarbari Port Development Project – is also returning 73.32% of its allocation in the revised ADP.

Last October, Ecnec raised the project cost from Tk17,777 crore to Tk24,381 crore. By June this year, only Tk2,168.91 crore had been spent. Its original ADP allocation for this fiscal year was Tk4,068 crore, now proposed to be reduced to Tk1,085 crore in the RADP.

Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion project

Planning Commission officials said that the revised ADP proposes reducing allocation for the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion project by 70.52%. It had an allocation of Tk1,039.24 crore in the current fiscal year's ADP.

Officials from the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh said they did not require the full allocation this year, which is why funds are being returned. The Tk21,399 crore project had spent Tk10,533 crore up to June 2025.

BRT project

Planning Commission officials further said that in a meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) last July, the proposal to increase cost and time for the 'Greater Dhaka Sustainable Urban Transport Project' (Airport–Gazipur BRT) was rejected due to weak planning and serious design flaws.

Consequently, its ADP allocation is also being returned. The project had Tk425 crore allocated in the ADP, now proposed to be reduced to Tk168.60 crore in the RADP.

Highway upgradation projects

Due to slow implementation, the Roads and Highways Department's mega projects – Hatikumrul–Rangpur Highway 4-lane upgrade (Sasec-2) and the Dhaka–Sylhet 4-lane upgrade – are also seeing reduced allocations of 16.55% and 3% respectively in the RADP.

Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project

The allocation for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant remains unchanged. Its ADP allocation this fiscal year is Tk10,011.78 crore, and the Planning Commission says no reduction has been proposed.

Dhaka–Ashulia Elevated Expressway project

Among mega projects under the bridges division, the Dhaka–Ashulia Elevated Expressway has been proposed for an increased allocation. Its original ADP allocation was Tk3,342 crore, now proposed to be raised to Tk4,477 crore in the RADP.

Officials at the bridges division said implementation progress has accelerated, creating the need for additional funds to pay contractors in line with ongoing work.

Tk30,000cr cut

Planning Commission officials said the proposed allocations will receive preliminary approval in an extended meeting on 31 December, with final approval at the NEC meeting in the first week of January.

The Finance Division has already sent a letter to the Planning Commission specifying the overall size of the RADP. It proposes cutting Tk30,000 crore from government funds and foreign loans. Government fund allocation is being reduced from Tk1,44,000 crore to Tk1,28,000 crore. Foreign loan and grant allocation is being reduced from Tk86,000 crore to Tk72,000 crore.

Dr M Masrur Reaz, Chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange, said the government is already implementing a contractionary budget that has led to cuts in development project allocations.

"Downward revisions in public expenditure and ADP allocations have now become almost routine, and this slowdown is already weighing on the broader economy – particularly the construction sector, which depends heavily on public-sector development projects.

"While direct employment from public projects is relatively small and short-term, the larger impact stems from weakened demand across linked industries. As public investment loses momentum, the multiplier effects on jobs diminish, ultimately reducing the overall employment-generation capacity of public spending," Dr Reaz said.

Regulatory inefficiencies, weak certification systems, inadequate testing facilities, complex export procedures, and poor logistics remain major obstacles to export growth in Bangladesh, according to business leaders.

"Bangladesh must strengthen its certification, compliance, and logistics systems to boost export competitiveness," said Rupali Chowdhury, president of the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

She spoke at a roundtable titled "Export Diversification: Challenges and Way Forward," jointly organised by Prothom Alo and Pran-RFL Group at the Prothom Alo office in Karwan Bazar yesterday.

Citing Berger's move to locally produce food-grade cans, Chowdhury said that these products still require certification abroad, mainly in India or Singapore, highlighting gaps in Bangladesh's testing capacity.

She called for major investment to modernise the Bangladesh Standards and Testing Institution (BSTI) and build essential pharmaceutical testing labs—projects that would cost several billion dollars.

Customs delays, limited automation, and weak compliance frameworks continue to hurt exporters, Chowdhury said. However, she added that trade restrictions in countries like China and Vietnam could create new opportunities for Bangladesh.

DIVERSIFICATION NOT OPTIONAL

Md Mahbub ur Rahman, CEO of HSBC Bangladesh, stressed the importance of identifying non-apparel sectors and supporting them with focused policies. "Twenty years ago, our exports were $9 billion. Now they're close to $50 billion—but 80 percent still comes from apparel," he said.

Rahman highlighted the potential of SMEs, saying, "But the process is too complex. We need to simplify it and build a strong support mechanism."

He also pointed to untapped markets in the Middle East and Asean countries.

Nahian Rahman Rochi, executive member of Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida), warned that relying solely on RMG, which now brings in around $48 billion, will not meet the country's long-term goals. "Export diversification is not optional but a mathematical reality for Bangladesh," he said.

Citing Vietnam and Korea's success, he stressed sector-specific strategies, skill transfer, partnerships, and better use of Bida support mechanisms. "We're here to facilitate, not just regulate," he said, promising to raise key issues in the next national budget.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman and CEO of PRAN-RFL Group, said boosting exports must be a national priority. "There is no alternative. We must decide whether we want to remain import-dependent or become an export-driven economy," he said.

He criticised rising demurrage charges, high air shipment costs, and urged direct shipping routes to major markets like the US. "If we can send goods directly from Chattogram to New York, we could alone export $1 billion worth of products," he said.

Sk Bashir Uddin, adviser to the Ministry of Commerce, called for unified, practical reforms rather than blame-driven discussions. He pointed to weak institutions and regulatory problems as core challenges, warning that over Tk 1,00,000 crore in non-performing loans—over 30 percent of GDP—reflects poor financial governance.

He cautioned against blindly relying on Free Trade Agreements and criticised the sidelining of small entrepreneurs, calling it a form of "chronic capitalism." On LDC graduation, he said solutions must be context-specific, noting Vietnam as a reference.

SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS

Syed S Kaiser Kabir, managing director of Renata PLC, stressed the strategic importance of pharmaceuticals for exports, talent retention, and global credibility. He criticised the current policy environment as unfriendly to pharma entrepreneurs and called for supportive policies and relaxed foreign exchange rules to aid global expansion.

Mohammad Hasan Arif, vice chairman of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), stressed diversifying products and destinations, noting that 44 percent of exports go to the EU and 18 percent to the US.

Nasir Khan, chairman of Jennys Group, pointed to bureaucratic red tape and bonded warehouse inefficiencies as major obstacles. "Over 30 licences and 190 documents are needed to operate—this alone drives away foreign investors," he said.

Sayema Haque Bidisha, pro-vice chancellor of the University of Dhaka, said that many SMEs in food processing and agro-based sectors lack institutional support. She also stressed the need to enforce environmental compliance in the leather sector and improve branding for jute and pharmaceuticals.

Shamim Ahmed, president of the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the real export value of plastics exceeds $1.8 billion, far above the $300 million officially reported.

Md Shahjahan Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Frozen Foods Exporters Association, said the sector could reach $3 billion within five years with proper support.

The discussion was moderated by Shawkat Hossain, head of online at Prothom Alo.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has approved the transfer of 1 crore shares held by two directors of Golden Harvest Agro Industries to IPDC Finance, according to disclosures published today (10 December).

The transfers fall under Regulation 47(1)(d) of the DSE Listing Regulations, which governs share transfers in cases involving confiscation or loan defaults.

One disclosure states that the DSE has authorised the transfer of 90 lakh shares owned by sponsor director Ahmed Rajeeb Samdani to IPDC Finance, with execution required within 30 working days, effective from 10 December. A separate disclosure notes approval for the transfer of 10 lakh shares held by Director Nadia Khalil Choudhury to the same institution, also within 30 working days from the same effective date.

Based on Golden Harvest Agro's market price of Tk11.80 today, the 1 crore shares approved for transfer are worth approximately Tk11.8 crore. Against the company's outstanding Tk34.86 crore loan with IPDC Finance, this would cover roughly 34% of the liability.

When contacted, Golden Harvest company Secretary Md Ibrahim Hossain said he was unaware of the development. According to October's shareholding report, Samdani held 4.73 crore shares, representing a 21.95% stake in the company, while Choudhury held 43.16 lakh shares, or 2%.

After Grameen Telecom, Banglalink has secured primary approval from Bangladesh Bank to launch a digital wallet service.

The leading telecom operator today received a 'No objection certificate' (NOC) from the central bank to commence operations as a payment service provider (PSP).

Earlier in June this year, another telecom operator, Grameen Telecom, received the final licence from the banking regulator to operate as a PSP.

In a statement, Banglalink said the approval marks a significant milestone in ensuring wider access to digital payments for all.

Generally, Bangladesh Bank issues a one-year NOC, with the company required to meet several regulatory conditions to obtain the final licence.

The proposed digital wallet company must also implement anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing policies, ensure customer due diligence, and comply with ICT security standards applicable to scheduled banks in the country.

In addition, it must complete software quality and vulnerability assessments, enforce data backup and retention policies, and develop accurate network architecture and topology as stipulated in the policy.

At launch, Banglalink said customers will be able to access instant money transfers, remittance services, utility and government bill payments, e-commerce and merchant transactions, salary disbursement services, as well as emerging financial solutions such as micro-savings and insurance premium payments.

A core objective of the service is to broaden access to formal financial services, particularly for unbanked and underserved communities, according to the statement.

The platform has been designed with a strong security framework to ensure safe, reliable, and seamless transactions that build long-term customer confidence, it added.

"Powered by a high-capacity technology platform and guided by its DO1440 strategy of empowering customers with relevant digital and financial services every minute of the day, Banglalink is preparing to bring essential financial services directly to customers' fingertips."

The statement added that Banglalink, a company fully owned by Veon, a global digital operator, considers this approval an important step toward expanding digital financial inclusion and strengthening the foundation for a cashless society.

Johan Buse, chief executive officer of Banglalink, said in the statement:

"With Banglalink's nationwide reach and Veon's global capabilities, we are shaping a secure and inclusive digital payment ecosystem for Bangladesh."

This approval reinforces the company's belief that simple, safe, and accessible digital financial services should be available to everyone, he pointed out.

A PSP facilitates electronic payment processes and transaction settlements through scheduled banks or financial institutions.

At present, there are nine PSPs in the country licensed by the central bank, including iPay Systems, D Money Bangladesh, and Recursion FinTech.

Industry insiders said mobile network operator Robi is also keen to enter the digital wallet business, while online marketplaces like Daraz and Chaldal have already applied for PSP licences.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell back into negative territory today (10 December) as cautious investors moved to lock in quick gains, ending the market's brief two-day recovery.

After opening on an optimistic note, the benchmark index DSEX lost momentum midway through the session and ultimately fell 21 points to close at 4,941. The decline snapped the uptrend that had lifted the index over the previous two trading days.

The blue-chip index DS30 also saw a notable pullback, dropping 8 points to settle at 1,899.

Market breadth remained firmly negative, with 227 scrips declining against just 114 advancing, while 53 remained unchanged – signalling broad-based selling pressure across the bourse.

Turnover, however, offered a glimmer of activity, rising 17% to Tk534 crore. This marked the first time in nine trading sessions that turnover had crossed the Tk500 crore threshold, indicating heightened participation even as selling pressure dominated.

Market analysts noted that despite the setback, the uptick in turnover suggests investors are not entirely stepping back and are instead selectively engaging while tracking political developments and market signals.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities noted that the market's retreat came as bargain hunters shifted to short-term profit booking after the recent rebound.

Investors remained wary of the broader trend amid evolving political signals and preferred to adopt a wait-and-see stance, it said. Although the session started with renewed optimism, selling pressure in the later hours dragged indices lower and reinforced a cautious mood among participants.

Sectoral performance reflected the mixed sentiment. Textile stocks accounted for the highest turnover at 14.5%, followed by pharmaceuticals at 14.1% and engineering at 11.5%.

Most sectors, however, ended with negative returns. Paper, IT and ceramic stocks were the worst performers, shedding 1.8%, 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

In contrast, Life Insurance, Services and Jute managed to post modest gains, helping soften the overall decline.

Among individual performers, FAS Finance topped the gainers' list with a 10.25% rise, followed by Union Capital, Northern Jute, Trust Islami Life Insurance and HR Textile.

On the losers' board, Anlyma Yarn, Familytex BD, Shyampur Sugar, Premier Leasing and ICB AMCL Second Mutual Fund registered the steepest declines of the session.

Unlike the Dhaka bourse, the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) closed in positive territory. The CSCX index gained 32 points to close at 8,538, while the CASPI index rose 53 points to 13,851. Turnover at the port-city bourse declined 37% to Tk9.91 crore.

Foreign investor participation at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has plunged sharply in recent months, with November's turnover (up to 15 November) dropping to just $10 million – one of the lowest monthly tallies in recent years – reflecting deepening concerns over Bangladesh's political, macroeconomic, and regulatory environment.

Data from the bourse shows a consistent fall in foreign turnover since July, when foreign trades amounted to $40 million. The figure slid to $31 million in August, recovered slightly to $36 million in September, and dipped again to $30 million in October.

The steep fall in November underscores a growing reluctance among foreign portfolio investors to deploy fresh funds in Bangladesh at a time of heightened uncertainty, analysts say.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm, requesting anonymity, told TBS that foreign investors have remained largely defensive. Persistent political tensions, coupled with a sluggish economic recovery and rising input costs, have contributed to their cautious stance.

"Overseas investors want stability, predictability, and assurance that policies will remain consistent under an elected government," he said. "In the absence of these signals, they reduce exposure instead of increasing it."

He added that many international investors chose to realise gains ahead of the year-end, a typical trend in frontier and emerging markets, though this time the sell-off was intensified by anxiety surrounding the national election and ambiguities created by recent regulatory actions.

"The broader economic activity is yet to rebound. Profit margins of many large-cap companies have remained suppressed due to high costs and supply chain strains. This has kept valuations from looking attractive despite the correction in share prices," he added.

Foreign investors pull out stock investments after brief uptick post-Hasina

The limited availability of quality, investable stocks remains a structural challenge for foreign funds seeking diversification. Frequent policy adjustments, including recent changes to margin rules, have created additional hurdles.

Analysts point out that Bangladesh has not seen a significant new listing on the premier bourse in almost two years, reducing the opportunities for global investors to accumulate long-term positions.

Foreign shareholding patterns in major listed firms have also shown marginal declines in recent months. Data compiled from the DSE reveals that foreign ownership in Square Pharmaceuticals edged down from 14.86% in October to 14.60% in November. Prime Bank, another foreign-favoured stock, saw its overseas holding drop from 7.14% to 6.71% over the same period.

Grameenphone experienced a slight decline in foreign ownership, while Olympic Industries, Beximco Pharmaceuticals and BRAC Bank remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations.

Market analysts say these adjustments indicate portfolio rebalancing rather than an outright exit, but the broader trend remains weak.

DSEX performance is poor among peer countries

Bangladesh's performance also lagged regional peers in November. The DSEX lost 2.80% month-on-month, closing at 4,978 points, making it one of the weaker performers among Asian frontier and emerging markets.

In contrast, Indonesia's IDX Composite advanced 4.22%, Vietnam's VN30 gained 2.05%, India's Sensex rose 2.11%, and Pakistan's Karachi 100 surged 3.12%.

Only a few markets — such as China, Sri Lanka, and South Korea — showed negative momentum, but even then, their declines were less severe than Bangladesh's.

Analysts say this comparative underperformance is likely to further depress foreign interest in the near term.

In its monthly market commentary for November, EBL Securities observed that the capital market had extended its losing streak for a third straight month as local investors remained nervous about the implications of revised margin loan rules, political instability, and ongoing restructuring in banking and non-bank financial sectors. These factors collectively drove market participants toward a defensive posture, resulting in thinning turnover and muted price action.

Political turmoil a deal-breaker for FDI, say foreign investors at Dhaka summit

The month began with particularly weak sentiment, triggered by media reports suggesting that the share values of five liquidity-starved Islamic banks had been effectively nullified by the central bank due to their financial distress. This development rattled the market, as retail investors feared spillover risks into other financial institutions. Confidence was further undermined when uncertainty grew over the newly enacted margin rules, which investors perceived as potentially disruptive for short-term trading strategies, according to the EBL Securities.

As a result, the DSEX tumbled to as low as 4,703 points during a single trading session — its lowest in five months — before bargain hunters cautiously re-entered the market. These buyers sought opportunities in heavily discounted stocks, particularly those with strong fundamentals and relatively low price-earnings ratios. Some optimism also stemmed from the anticipated central bank liquidity support for the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), which historically has provided stability during periods of market stress.

However, EBL Securities noted that such bargain-hunting activities were insufficient to counter the overarching pessimism gripping the market. Although certain institutional investors selectively accumulated positions, the broader investment community continued to wait on the sidelines, hoping for clarity on both political developments and regulatory policies before re-entering the market in meaningful volumes. This dynamic contributed to a 14% month-on-month decline in average daily turnover, further reflecting the subdued trading environment.

Government bank borrowing goes ballooning with the fundraising through special auction of bonds and bills to pay for five-in-one Sammilito Islami Bank and possible liquidation of nine hard-up nonbanks.

To meet the fresh financing challenges, amid less-than-expected level of revenue-mobilisation drives, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) keeps holding special auction of government securities (G-sec) going beyond the regular schedule through which it is borrowing from the banking sector.

As part of the move to foot the bill for bailout of the banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) pushed into problems through past malpractices, the ministry has called for a special auction of 91-day- tenure treasury bill today (Wednesday) to generate an additional Tk 50 billion from the banks.

Earlier on November 27, the government borrowed Tk 50 billion from the commercial banks through issuing its 5-year treasury bond.

Earlier, the ministry concerned at a scheduled auction on November 16, 2025 took Tk 12.89 billion in addition to the notified amount of Tk 25 billion from the banking industry, sources at MoF and Bangladesh Bank (BB) have said.

In order to feed growing funding requirements, the government has already revised up its domestic bank-borrowing target to Tk 1.17 trillion from the initial budget target of Tk 1.04 trillion.

According to official statistics, the government borrowing from the banking system until November in the FY'26 stands at Tk 374 billion, Tk 124-billion higher from the corresponding period of last fiscal (Tk 250 billion).

Seeking anonymity, a MoF official says the government needs additional funds to support Samillito Islami Bank, formed through the merger of five liquidity-strapped Islamic banks. In addition, the government has decided to liquidate nine struggling NBFIs, and it would possibly require Tk 50 billion.

"Wherefrom the fund will come? There is some growth in revenue mobilisation but it is not enough to support these. That's why we keep holding special auctions. There is nothing wrong with it," the official told The Financial Express.

Former lead economist of World Bank's Dhaka office Dr Zahid Hossain says they did not see any fall in revenue collection, development-funding spike and rise in operational expenses in the public administration or social protection.

"Then why do we see government bank-borrowing spike. It's probably because of the Sammilito Islami Bank and possible liquidation of nine NBFIs apart from expenses for holding upcoming general election," he says.

He thinks the government is likely to discourage budget-support financing from external sources but for development projects. "I don't think it is a right move because budget-supported financing comes with institutional policy reforms. If we do it properly, it will have the same impact that any other investment projects," the country's eminent economist explains.

He feels this financing strategy would intensify pressure on the banks, which would trigger crowding-out impact on the money market.

Speaking on condition that he should not be quoted by name, a BB official dispels the fear of crowding-out effect, saying that the central bank keeps purchasing US dollar and injecting liquidity into the banks.

Citing an example, he says the BB on Tuesday bought $202 million from banks as part of its foreign-exchange market intervention under the existing crawling-peg mechanism and injected

Tk 247 billion into banks.

"So, the banks have enough liquidity to participate in such special auction of Tk 50 billion. It means there will be no crowding-out impact," the central banker adds.

Founding chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh Dr M Masrur Reaz suggest the government should create more spaces within the current challenging realities with regard to resources by prioritising private investment or PPP (public-private partnership) instead of public investment wherever it is possible to do so.

He notes that consolidation, mergers and closure are inevitable for cleaning up the financial sector and the banking regulator must find out solution which is market-driven.

For an example, he says, the central bank can opt for market-based solution through private-sector takeover of the troubled banks through merger process, which will likely save government from the burden of recapitalisation.

Simultaneously, if distressed asset-management company is put in place, a part of the distress assets can be sold to such company.

"It can lessen the pressure on the government," the economist says,

If we want to judge the interim government fairly, the place to start is not with slogans or selective comparisons but with the data — the data candidly laid out in the State of the Economy report launched by the General Economics Division on 8 December. Read it dispassionately and a simple truth emerges: the record speaks for itself. And it speaks more clearly than the refrain that "we're doing better than Indonesia in 1998 or Sri Lanka in 2022."

It is an attractive line, but one like congratulating yourself for not driving into a ditch when the car was already skidding. Still, credit where it is due. The interim government did manage things that matter — and matter deeply — even if they don't fit neatly into a triumphalist narrative.

The IG's report card

Take the political transition. Many observers quietly doubted whether the country could be steered toward a February 2026 election without the usual theatrics. Yet the interim administration coaxed, nudged, and occasionally herded the political actors toward a workable process. In Bangladesh, where transitions often resemble a high-wire act performed during an earthquake, simply keeping the dialogue on the rails is no mean achievement. Political stability may not appear in macroeconomic equations, but it is the soil in which every macroeconomic variable grows.

Then there was the remarkable episode of August 5–8, 2024—three days when the country had no functioning government and the police were effectively absent. Yet Bangladesh did not descend into the Hobbesian nightmare we are so often warned about: "war of each against all". There were political violences for sure, but none like the anarchy that would have horrified Hobbes.

Locke would have smiled knowingly. Rousseau would have claimed vindication. And Hobbes, poor man, would have been forced to add a sheepish footnote to Leviathan admitting that under certain conditions, society can behave better without the state than the state behaves with itself. But let's not stretch three days of civic restraint into a grand theory of Bangladeshi exceptionalism. Social resilience is real, but it is not infinite. It buys time; it does not resolve structural tensions.

The interim government needed every hour of that borrowed time. They did not inherit a functioning control room. They walked into a ship already taking water — hollowed-out institutions, jittery markets, mountain of arrears (in local and foreign currencies) and correspondent banks that slammed the brakes the moment the transition began, to mention just some. The banking system was distressed enough that even optimism needed collateral. Their first job was not to chart a bold new course but to keep the vessel from capsizing. Expecting sweeping structural reform from a government juggling existential threats, political reform, justice for state-sponsored violence, and the logistics of a credible election is not analysis; it's fantasy.

Economy at 'critical juncture' despite regaining macroeconomic stability, warns Planning Commission report

One quiet but telling achievement of the interim government is the thinning of the ambient fear that once wrapped public expression like barbed wire. People haven't become fearless overnight, but they are no longer terrified of intelligence agencies pouncing on every raised eyebrow or inconvenient footnote. The old ritual of triple-checking a Facebook post as if it were a state secret has eased. Critics now worry more about trolls than midnight knocks, which, in Bangladesh's political climate, counts as progress.

Fifteen months is not fifteen years. Within that window, they kept the ship afloat long enough for the country to breathe again. They began nudging the economy back toward tighter monetary policy, a more realistic exchange rate, a willingness to confront fiscal imbalances, and initiated long overdue structural reforms in trade logistics, labor, energy, financial regulation and so on. These moves didn't solve everything, but they stopped the bleeding.

Tight monetary policy strains banking sector, slows deposit and credit growth: Planning Commission report

In macroeconomics, stopping the bleeding is sometimes the most important first step. This shift is evident across several key indicators—remittance, reserves, exchange rate, illicit outflows, electricity, and revenues. These green shoots suggest that the foundations for cautious optimism are being laid.

A comparison we don't need

But here's where we need to stay grounded. Many of the reforms being cited as progress are still somewhere between "in progress" and "under consideration." Implementation remains the Achilles' heel of Bangladeshi policymaking, as it has been for decades. This is precisely why the "we're doing better than Indonesia and Sri Lanka" line needs a reality check. Bangladesh looks better not because of what the interim government prevented, but because the country did not begin its post-uprising journey from the same cliff edge.

Indonesia in 1998 was already in freefall — a banking implosion, capital flight, and a currency collapse all happening at once. Sri Lanka in 2022 was in a full-blown sovereign default with fuel lines stretching for miles. Bangladesh, by contrast, inherited a slow-burn structural crisis: high inflation, distressed banks, low reserves, and pervasive corruption. Serious, yes—but not remotely comparable in scale or immediacy. We didn't have a banking collapse. We didn't have hyperinflation.

A fair reading also requires acknowledging that Bangladesh did not glide into its transition on calm waters. The country spent much of the year inside a rolling protest bubble that repeatedly disrupted activity, mobility, and welfare. Streets were blocked, supply chains were strained, and uncertainty became a daily companion.

So it's not that Bangladesh enjoyed a sturdier political "tectonic plate" than Indonesia or Sri Lanka. The real difference lay in how quickly authority was restored once the old order collapsed—and why that speed was possible. Indonesia in 1998 endured weeks of drift after Suharto's fall, with no functioning executive and a fractured state arguing over succession. Sri Lanka in 2022 saw its president flee, its cabinet evaporate, and ministries abandoned while the country waited for someone—anyone—to take charge.

Bangladesh's vacuum, by contrast, was chaotic but short-lived, in part because Professor Muhammad Yunus's global stature and broad acceptability nationally provided an immediate focal point around which an interim government—however imperfect—could be assembled. That speed mattered. It prevented the kind of prolonged institutional paralysis that turns economic stress into economic collapse.

That personality mattered too. Professor Yunus is not your typical head of government. One aide joked, "He's the only leader who quotes Tagore, talks about blockchain, and asks about your mother—all in the same breath." He wears his signature Grameen check Panjabi and the same pair of sneakers he has reportedly owned for years irrespective of whether he is in the Chief Advisers Office, the UN or the Vatican!

So the relief we feel today is evidence of a different starting point. That is why the Indonesia–Sri Lanka comparison, however comforting, is ultimately a distraction. It obscures the real question: not whether we avoided someone else's disaster, but whether we are building our own success.

Building the best

That brings us to the heart of the matter. What held the interim government back from doing better? Time, mandate, and institutional capacity—the three constraints that shape every transitional administration. You cannot rebuild institutions at the same time you are relying on them to manage a crisis. Reform is not a sprint. It is a marathon. Running a marathon requires not only the will to start but the stamina to stay the course.

The interim government deserves credit—for stabilising the political process, for preventing economic freefall, and for navigating a period when society, not the state, held the line. But doing better than a disaster is not a development success. It is simply the first step toward one. History will ultimately judge, but having avoided the worst, we need to crave the best.

Building the best must begin with the election ahead—an election that is, in effect, a national referendum on the kind of political order we want to stand on. The choices made there will determine whether reform becomes a sustained journey or another interrupted promise.

Two firms — CVO Petrochemical Refinery PLC and Star Adhesives Limited — secured the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) consent to disburse their declared stock dividends for the fiscal year of 2024-25.

Following the disclosure filed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), CVO Petrochemical, which traded on the main trading platform of the stock exchange, share price jumped by 4.92% to reach Tk170.70. For Star Adhesives, traded on the SME platform of the stock exchange, shares closed 7.22% higher at Tk99.30.

Earlier, in September, CVO Petrochemical declared an 11% cash and 9% stock dividends to its shareholders for FY25 and set the record date for 30 October to entitle the eligible shareholders for the dividends.

But the company did not secure the consent from the BSEC before the record date. That is why, it set the new record date at 17 December.

Besides, on 28 October, Star Adhesives recommended 12.5% cash and 50% stock dividend for the last fiscal year. The company will declare the record date later.

According to the BSEC's directive issued in September 2021, listed companies are required to acquire prior approval from the BSEC for disbursing stock dividends for those who failed to pay out at least 10% cash dividends for two consecutive years.

CVO Petrochemical had paid a 10% cash dividend for FY24 and 5% cash dividend for FY23, where Star Adhesives had paid a 12.5% cash dividend in each of those same years.

Despite paying over 10% cash dividend for the two consecutive years, Star Adhesive is required to secure regulator's approval for stock dividend as it will disburse the dividend from its retained earnings.

Meanwhile, CVO Petrochemical reported an earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.82, with total profit standing at Tk10.61 crore in FY25. A year earlier, in FY24, its profit was Tk6.50 crore with an EPS of Tk2.34.

In FY25, Star Adhesives reported the earnings per share of Tk2.49, which was 16% lower from the previous year.

The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) today (9 December) said that US President Donald Trump's threat to impose an additional 25% tariff on rice imports from India is likely to have a limited impact on exporters.

India continues to be the world's largest rice exporter, shipping nearly 19.86 million tonnes in fiscal year 2024–25. Its export basket includes basmati, parboiled, non-basmati white, broken and other varieties.

In a statement, the Federation said that while the US is an important market, albeit a small one, India's rice exports are well diversified across global destinations.

"The Indian rice export industry is resilient and globally competitive," said Dev Garg, vice president of IREF.

According to IREF, India exported basmati rice worth $337.10 million, totalling 2.74 lakh tonnes, to the US in FY 2024–25, making America the fourth-largest market for Indian basmati.

During the same period, India exported non-basmati rice valued at $54.64 million, amounting to 61,341.54 tonnes, to the US, where Indian rice is consumed mainly by communities from the Persian Gulf region and South Asia.

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), an Indian trade think tank, said the announcement made by Trump at a roundtable of American farmers at the White House on 8 December appeared to be election-season posturing targeted at US farm interests.

Trump's warning triggered an immediate reaction in the Indian stock market, with shares of rice exporters falling sharply as investors feared possible disruption in the American market.

While the US accounts for only a small share of India's rice exports, the threat of additional tariffs has created uncertainty among exporters and investors alike.

Trump's remarks come as India and the US prepare for another round of trade talks in New Delhi on 10-11 December aimed at advancing a bilateral trade agreement.

The US had imposed a 25% tariff on select Indian goods from 1 August, followed by an additional 25% increase, citing India's continued purchase of Russian oil. Trump recently eased tariffs on many food items, including spices and tea from India, in a bid to combat rising US prices; however, basmati rice was excluded from the tariff-relief list.

Pakistan on Tuesday (9 December) welcomed the release of a further $1.2 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund to help its economic recovery and reforms programme, calling it evidence of "hard work" undertaken after two years of financial crisis.

The IMF approved the funds at a Washington meeting on Monday, bringing the total amount provided under two loan facilities -- a bailout fund and a climate sustainability fund -- to $3.3 billion.

"Pakistan's reform implementation... has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks," such as devastating flooding last summer, the fund's deputy managing director Nigel Clarke said in a statement.

Economic growth is projected to rise to 3.2% in the fiscal year to June 2026, after an estimated 3% last year.

Inflation meanwhile is set to average 6.3% this fiscal year, a huge drop from the 23.4% average in the year to June 2024.

But Clarke also called for further overhauls and privatisations of state-owned firms, and continued investment in climate projects to reduce "vulnerability to extreme weather events".

New efforts to combat endemic corruption are also needed, Clarke said, while welcoming a recent government-commissioned report on fraud as a "welcome step in accelerating government reforms".

In a statement, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the new loans "proof that Pakistan is implementing the necessary steps for economic stability and growth".

"Bringing the country back from the brink of default and putting it on the path of stability and development was a difficult phase, for which everyone made sacrifices."

Pakistan nearly defaulted on its massive debt in 2023 before securing the IMF bailout, called the Extended Fund Facility, which is to total $7 billion in the coming years.

As part of the deal, it also pledged to tackle corruption, including money-laundering and alleged financing of terrorism in the country.

In November, the IMF published a review conducted at the request of the Pakistani government, which found "persistent and widespread corruption risks embedded in a heavily state-dominated economy".

It noted the "significant adverse effects on economic growth, investment, and public trust", urging "actions to advance the rule of law and the functioning of anticorruption institutions".

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine. It also secured a 10-year, $20 billion financing package from the World Bank in January.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has bought $2.51 billion from commercial banks so far in the fiscal year 2025–26, including $202 million today, according to BB data.

The central bank purchased the amount from 13 commercial banks at rates ranging from Tk 122.27 to Tk 122.29.

BB, which sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves between FY21 and FY25 to help cover imports of fuel, fertiliser, and food, has begun purchasing the greenback since the start of this fiscal year, as supply has increased owing to higher exports and remittances.

Since early July, the taka has gained against the dollar. On July 2, the dollar was traded at a maximum of Tk 122.85.

Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $31.21 billion as of December 1, 2025, according to BB. Calculated under the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), reserves stood at $26.51 billion.

Wing Tai Garments (Bangladesh) Co Ltd, a Chinese company, will invest $10.32 million to set up a readymade garment factory in the Bepza Economic Zone (Bepza EZ) at Mirsharai, Chattogram.

The company will produce a diverse range of apparel, including knitwear garments such as ladies', kids', and men's tops, T-shirts, trousers, and shorts, with an annual production target of 1.56 million pieces.

It will also manufacture woven garments such as ladies', kids', and men's jackets, pants, and shorts, with an annual production target of 4.01 million pieces.

The investment will create employment opportunities for 3,158 people, according to a press release.

Md Ashraful Kabir, member for investment promotion of the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza), and Li Qingqi, general manager of Wing Tai Garments (Bangladesh) Co Ltd, signed the agreement at the Bepza Complex in Dhaka today.

Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain, executive chairman of Bepza, attended the signing ceremony. At the event, Hossain emphasised Bepza's unwavering commitment to providing seamless support and a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.

Riad Mahmud, managing director of National Polymer Industries PLC, has been elected president of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies (BAPLC) for the 2026–27 term.

The election was held recently under the supervision of the BAPLC Election Board, following the association's election schedule and in accordance with the Trade Organization Rules 2025, according to a press release.

Syed Ishtiaq Ahmed, managing director of Saiham Cotton Mills, was elected vice-president of the association, which represents companies listed on Bangladesh's stock exchanges.

The new committee includes Rokeya Quader, chairman of Desh Garments; Syed Farhad Ahmed, managing director and CEO of Aamra Networks; Nurun Newaz, chairman of NCC Bank; Mohammed Younus, vice-chairman of Shahjalal Islami Bank; Imam Shaheen, managing director and CEO of Asia Insurance; Farzanah Chowdhury, managing director and CEO of Green Delta Insurance; Shahriar Ahmed, chairman of Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills; Humayun Rashid, managing director and CEO of Energypac Power Generation; Mohammad Shamsul Islam, managing director and CEO of National Housing Finance; and Zeyad Rahman, director of Delta Life Insurance.

Other elected members include Sharif Shah Jamal Raz, director of Robi Axiata; Jafar Ahmed Patwari, chairman of Peoples Insurance; Sharif Hasan, director of Chartered Life Insurance; Monirul Islam Akhand, managing director of Summit Power; Chowdhury Kamruzzaman, director of Rangpur Foundry; Md Zahedul Islam, managing director of Provati Insurance; Hasan Tarek, CEO of Eastern Insurance; Uzzal Kumar Saha, managing director of GQ Ball Pen; and Abdullah Al Emran, managing director of e-Generation.

The committee will formally assume office on 1 January 2026, following its introduction at the BAPLC Annual General Meeting on 24 December 2025.

Pakistan on Tuesday welcomed the release of a further $1.2 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund to help its economic recovery and reforms programme, calling it evidence of "hard work" undertaken after two years of financial crisis.

The IMF approved the funds at a Washington meeting Monday, bringing the total amount provided under two loan facilities -- a bailout fund and a climate sustainability fund -- to $3.3 billion.

"Pakistan's reform implementation... has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks" such as devastating flooding last summer, the fund's deputy managing director Nigel Clarke said in a statement.

Pakistan nearly defaulted on its massive debt in 2023 before securing the IMF bailout

Economic growth is projected to rise to 3.2 percent in the fiscal year to June 2026, after an estimated 3.0 percent last year.

Inflation meanwhile is set to average 6.3 percent this fiscal year, a huge drop from the 23.4 percent average in the year to June 2024.

But Clarke also called for further overhauls and privatisations of state-owned firms, and continued investment in climate projects to reduce "vulnerability to extreme weather events".

New efforts to combat endemic corruption are also needed, Clarke said, while welcoming a recent government-commissioned report on fraud as a "welcome step in accelerating government reforms".

In a statement, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the new loans "proof that Pakistan is implementing the necessary steps for economic stability and growth".

"Bringing the country back from the brink of default and putting it on the path of stability and development was a difficult phase, for which everyone made sacrifices."

Pakistan nearly defaulted on its massive debt in 2023 before securing the IMF bailout, called the Extended Fund Facility, that is to total $7 billion in the coming years.

As part of the deal it also pledged to tackle corruption including money-laundering and alleged financing of terrorism in the country.

In November the IMF published a review conducted at the request of the Pakistani government, which found "persistent and widespread corruption risks embedded in a heavily state-dominated economy".

It noted the "significant adverse effects on economic growth, investment, and public trust", urging "actions to advance the rule of law and the functioning of anticorruption institutions".

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine. It also secured a 10-year, $20 billion financing package from the World Bank in January.

Banking is going through a rapid global transformation unlike anything seen before. Large international banks are shifting from retail banking to wealth management. In recent years, large global banks such as Citi and HSBC have exited retail banking in many markets and focused instead on wealth management and private banking in major wealth hubs, including Hong Kong, Singapore, the UAE, the UK and the US.

Their attention is now on clients at the top tier of the wealth pyramid, offering curated services such as wealth and investment advice and legacy planning. These are delivered through experienced bankers and mobile apps. They are also earning higher fee income by acting as sales agents for structured investment products issued by other banks and financial institutions. Although banks hold vast amounts of data on consumer spending patterns, they rarely use this data to offer tailored solutions. This remains a clear opportunity for banks to differentiate themselves by personalising services based on client spending behaviour.

Global banks are also moving into the field of digital currencies. Domestic payments in most countries are already digital to varying degrees. The challenge lies in cross-border payments, which are affected by differing regulations and time zones. Tokenised money could reshape this space, whether through central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, or bank-issued tokenised deposits. This presents an opportunity for our central bank and local banks to work with counterparts abroad to speed up the inflow of remittances.

The UAE recently introduced the "Jisr" platform, bringing together Emirati and Chinese banks to carry out the first cross-border payment between the UAE and China using digital currencies issued by central banks. As the UAE is one of the largest sources of remittances for Bangladesh, this is a significant opportunity. Interlinking instant payment systems across borders, as the UAE has done with China, could transform cross-border transfers.

Global banks are already deploying generative AI and investing in agentic AI. Many banking processes remain highly manual despite years of technology investment. Client onboarding and AML or KYC checks are examples. AI can pre-fill account opening forms, and clients can complete the rest on their device. Connectivity with NID and NBR servers can allow real-time identity verification and automated collection of tax documents.

Credit appraisal and portfolio reviews are also heavily manual. With AI, banks can automate credit scoring for retail and small business clients. Instead of rushing to assess portfolios during adverse or black swan events, banks can use AI to receive early warnings about deteriorating conditions in a client's environment. Another potential area is sales and client relationship management. While many banks use CRM platforms to track clients, AI can enhance this data by identifying cross-selling opportunities and highlighting promising prospective clients.

In future, clients will rely on their own AI agents to engage with banks and support financial and investment decisions. Banks that prepare for these emerging global trends and invest in them now will lead the market in the next decade.

The writer worked as a senior executive at global banks in Bangladesh and Singapore

Bangladesh Bank has directed that no commercial bank with a capital shortfall or provision shortfall can pay incentive or performance bonuses to its employees.

Previously, banks could distribute such bonuses even if they had deficits.

The central bank issued a circular today (9 December) to the managing directors and chief executives of all banks outlining the new rules.

According to the circular, incentive bonuses can only be paid from profits earned based on the current year's actual income and expenses. Bonuses cannot be paid from retained earnings.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard, "Incentive bonuses are based on profits calculated from the current year's income and expenses, not on retained earnings. Banks with regulatory capital or provision shortfalls cannot pay bonuses. Similarly, banks using deferral facilities or those with classified or written-off loans are also barred from issuing incentive bonuses."

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, MD and CEO of MTB, expressed concern over the policy.

"If a bank currently faces a shortfall due to past incidents, employees cannot receive incentive bonuses even if the bank performs well now. Many employees not involved in the previous issues will still be deprived of bonuses," he said.

He added, "Banks meeting these criteria may be performing well today, but employees could become demotivated and move to banks allowed to give incentive bonuses. This could create retention challenges, particularly for banks with talented staff. While strong banks will remain unaffected, weaker banks risk losing skilled employees to competitors."

Bangladesh's labour migration to Japan has surged nearly threefold this year, driven by the government's push to secure a stronger foothold in one of the world's most competitive foreign labour markets.

About 10,000 Bangladeshis have travelled to Japan so far this year on job visas or as language-course students who become eligible for work within a year, according to a letter the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment sent to the Finance Division on 20 November.

The number stood at 3,574 in 2024, while over 5,000 travelled in each of the two preceding years. The ministry said recruitment is likely to rise further next year, with potential for exponential growth.

The letter was circulated across several ministries seeking urgent administrative support to manage the demand, following Senior Secretary Neyamat Ullah Bhuiyan's return from a recent visit to Japan. His trip resulted in the signing of 40 new agreements with Japanese employers to hire Bangladeshi workers.

The momentum follows Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus' visit to Tokyo in May. Two major MoUs were signed during the chief adviser's visit to formalise labour migration between the two countries, setting a target of sending 100,000 workers over the next five years.

Meanwhile, more than 13,000 Bangladeshis are scheduled to sit the Japanese language proficiency test this December, and the ministry plans to double the number of examinees by mid-2026.

Enrolment in language courses has risen sharply, reflecting growing interest among prospective migrants and an increasing level of preparedness, the letter notes.

It said Japan is closely monitoring Bangladesh's readiness, and a convincing show of preparation could lead to a rapid expansion in recruitment across several job categories from next year.

"The MoUs expand the recruitment pipeline even though they do not specify worker numbers," said Md Shahidul Islam Chowdhury, head of the Japan Cell at the Expatriates' Welfare Ministry.

He told The Business Standard that many travelling as students are effectively jobseekers who start work after completing a one-year language course, which is why they are counted as job placements.

BMET seeks Jica support

The Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET) has submitted a Tk1,500 crore project proposal seeking Jica's support to build a dedicated skilled workforce for Japan.

A senior BMET official told The Business Standard that the Economic Relations Division has begun discussions with Jica, and the proposal is under review.

Japan cell at ministry, manpower at mission

To support the expanding labour pipeline, the government has established a dedicated Japan Cell at the ministry while strengthening staffing at the Labour Wing of the Bangladesh Embassy in Tokyo.

The letter said the initiative is being overseen by the Chief Adviser's Office through his Special Envoy for International Affairs, Lutfey Siddiqi, who has been tasked with driving market expansion in Japan.

Despite the recent momentum, a shortage of skilled workers remains the central barrier to accessing the Japanese market. Ministry officials said they are working to expand the pool of trained manpower, but migration experts argue the response must be faster and more effective.

Language skills hold back Bangladeshis

Sector insiders said a shortage of skilled workers is the main reason Bangladesh continues to trail its competitors. Nepal sent 56,707 workers to Japan last year, while Bangladesh managed just 3,574, roughly sixteen times fewer. The gap has held steady, with Nepal sending more than 42,000 and 36,000 workers in 2022 and 2023, while Bangladesh sent just over 5,000 in each year.

As of 6 December, BMET issued 1,406 clearance cards for Bangladeshi workers heading to Japan, covering sectors such as agriculture (97), engineering (86), scaffolding (54), caregiving (52), metal painting (41), skilled work (40), sewing (37), and casual labour (34).

"Under the Specified Skilled Workers (SSW) programme, demand is highest for caregivers and construction workers, both requiring an N4-level Japanese language certificate," said Nurul Islam, former BMET training director and now an ILO consultant.

He added that Nepal is ahead in language training because N4 preparation requires native trainers, and Bangladesh does not have enough. "Some Bangladeshi caregivers struggled due to weak language skills and later had to switch jobs," he said.

Japanese language proficiency has five levels, with N5 being the easiest and N1 the most advanced. Most Japanese skilled-worker jobs require N4 or higher, according to the Japanese-Language Proficiency Test (JLPT).

Meanwhile, at a seminar in June, Expatriate Adviser Asif Nazrul said the government is encouraging Japanese companies to run Bangladesh's Technical Training Centres. For example, Monohardi TTC has been handed over to a Japanese partner for development based on their needs.

He added that migration costs for Japan and Saudi Arabia are almost the same, around Tk6-7 lakh, yet many Bangladeshi workers still choose the Middle East, where no specialised skills are required, despite Japan offering higher wages.

However, the ministry's fixed migration cost for Japan-bound workers remains Tk1.48 lakh. A ministry official said "The rate needs revision because it no longer reflects current expenses and should be raised to Tk3 lakh."

Pathways to Japan

Bangladeshis can currently migrate to Japan through four pathways: Specified Skilled Workers (SSW), Technical Intern Training Programme (TITP), white-collar jobs such as engineering, and student visas.

The SSW programme covers 16 job categories, including nursing care, industrial manufacturing, automobile repair, driving, shipbuilding, and agriculture.

Senior Secretary Neyamat Ullah Bhuiyan has proposed expanding the list to include food and beverage manufacturing, the food service industry, and forestry.

The ministry estimates Japan will need 135,000 nursing care workers, 173,000 industrial manufacturing workers, 24,500 drivers, 78,000 agricultural workers, and 36,000 shipbuilders over the next five years.

About 96 BMET-approved agencies are authorised to send workers to Japan.

A Sadiatech official, a leading Japan-market agency, told TBS, "We have received strong support from both the government and Japan since the chief adviser's visit, and the market is gradually flourishing for our workers."

President Donald Trump said Monday he had reached an agreement with President Xi Jinping to allow US chip giant Nvidia to export advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.

The announcement marked a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Joe Biden's administration had heavily restricted over national security concerns about Chinese military applications.

Democrats in Congress quickly dismissed the shift as a huge mistake that will help the Chinese military and economy.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he had informed Xi that Washington would permit Nvidia to ship its H200 products to "approved customers in China, and other countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security."

"President Xi responded positively! $25% will be paid to the United States of America," Trump wrote, without providing details on how the payment mechanism would work.

Trump criticized his predecessor's approach, saying it "forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building 'degraded' products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed Innovation, and hurt the American Worker."

This referred to the Biden administration's requirement for chip companies to create modified, less powerful versions specifically for the Chinese market.

These chips had reduced capabilities -- lower processing speeds, for example -- to comply with export control regulations.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun did not directly confirm the agreement when asked, but said that "China has always advocated for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes through cooperation between China and the United States."

Under Biden-era restrictions, the H200 and similar advanced chips were blocked from export to China.

"We applaud President Trump's decision to allow America's chip industry to compete to support high paying jobs and manufacturing in America," an Nvidia spokesperson told AFP.

"Offering H200 to approved commercial customers, vetted by the Department of Commerce, strikes a thoughtful balance that is great for America."

Trump emphasized that Nvidia's most advanced chips -- the Blackwell series and forthcoming Rubin processors -- are not included in the agreement and remain available only to US customers.

The H200s are roughly 18 months behind the company's state-of-the-art offerings.

The chips -- graphic processing units or GPUs -- are used to train the AI models that are the bedrock of the generative AI revolution launched with the release of ChatGPT in 2022.

The Commerce Department is finalizing implementation details, with Trump saying "the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies."

The announcement comes as Washington and Beijing compete for dominance in artificial intelligence technology.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang lobbied the White House intensely to reverse the Biden-era policy despite considerable opposition in Washington to giving Chinese companies access to powerful chips.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, attributed the deal to a "backroom meeting" with Trump and Huang's company's donation to build the East Wing ballroom at the White House.

She and other senior Democrats in the Senate issued a separate statement calling Trump's decision "a colossal economic and national security failure."

"Access to these chips would give China's military transformational technology to make its weapons more lethal, carry out more effective cyberattacks against American businesses and critical infrastructure and strengthen their economic and manufacturing sector," the lawmakers said.

Trump's post came the same day the US Justice Department announced the arrests of two Chinese businessmen in connection to an alleged scheme to smuggle Nvidia H100 and H200 chips from the US to China. It is unclear whether the agreement will impact the case.

Alex Stapp, of the Washington-based Institute for Progress, called the policy a "massive own goal," with the H200 "6x more powerful than the H20, which was previously the most powerful chip approved for export."

Zhang Yi, founder of Chinese tech research firm iiMedia, said that having Nvidia AI GPUs on the market was unlikely to reverse Beijing's push to develop its own advanced chips.

"Instead, it will actually force its acceleration," with a 25-percent US charge increasing costs for Chinese companies, which already hold concerns over supply chain security, he told AFP.