The stock market regulator has rejected bond issuance proposals worth Tk 2,100 crore from several banks that had earlier received no-objection certificates from the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

According to official documents from earlier this month, Southeast Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Meghna Bank, and One Bank are among the lenders whose bond proposals were rejected.

BB, the regulator of the banking sector, had earlier issued no-objection certificates after assessing the banks’ capital adequacy and leverage position, liquidity profile, asset quality, stress-test outcomes, repayment capacity, and governance standards.

However, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) said it rejected the proposals because the banks’ “financial performance, particularly liquidity and profitability, is not satisfactory”.

A no-objection certificate from the BB is a mandatory requirement for banks seeking to issue bonds, but it does not guarantee approval by the stock market regulator.

“After the merger of five banks, there is growing fear that bond subscribers could lose their invest-ments if a bank’s financial condition deteriorates,”
Saiful Islam, President of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh
According to a senior merchant banker, the central bank’s NOC signals that a bond proposal complies with prudential regulations and does not pose systemic risk to the banking system.

“It means the proposal has passed the most critical checkpoint for banking stability,” he said, adding that BB focuses mainly on whether a bond could weaken a bank or create broader financial stress.

The BSEC, by contrast, assesses the proposal from the perspective of the capital market, with emphasis on investor protection, disclosure quality, cash flow, and the issuer’s ability to repay bondholders on time, said the banker, preferring anonymity.

He said subordinated bonds are an important tool for banks to strengthen tier-2 capital without diluting equity, improve maturity matching, and reduce reliance on short-term deposits.

“At a time when many banks are undergoing leadership changes, balance sheet clean-ups, and operational restructuring, bond financing can provide breathing space for a sustainable turnaround,” he said.

Capital market representatives, however, defended the BSEC’s cautious approach.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), said the recent merger of five banks had heightened risks for bondholders, as merger schemes addressed depositor interests but offered no clear protection for bond investors.

“After the merger of five banks, there is growing fear that bond subscribers could lose their investments if a bank’s financial condition deteriorates,” he said.

Islam also criticised credit rating agencies, saying they had failed to reflect the true financial health of banks, leaving bond investors exposed.

“Usually, investors rely on credit ratings when subscribing to bonds. But the rating agencies did not properly capture the risks,” he said, adding that bond approvals should therefore be handled with greater scrutiny in the public interest.

He said that banks whose bond proposals were rejected might face short-term pressure, but they should consider raising capital through equity injection instead.

BSEC Spokesperson Abul Kalam said obtaining a no-objection certificate from the BB is only one of several conditions for bond approval.

“It does not mean that if the central bank gives an NOC, the BSEC must approve the bond,” he told The Daily Star.

He said the commission approves debt securities in line with its own rules and regulations, and may reject proposals if a bank’s financial performance and cash flow are weak.

“If cash flow is not satisfactory, the bank may face difficulties in repaying bondholders. That risk has to be assessed independently,” he added.

Bangladesh Bank Spokesperson Arif Hossain Khan said each regulator has a different perspective and operates within its own mandate. “The decision not to approve some bonds is entirely the BSEC’s consideration, and it has the authority to do so,” he said.

Contacted, Khwaja Shahriar, chairman of Al-Arafah Islami Bank, whose bond issuance proposal was rejected by the stock market regulator, said the bank had been on a steady recovery path since the board was reconstituted.

He said liquidity conditions have improved, and the bank’s overall financial position is strengthening gradually.

“We seek the continued support of the BSEC and firmly believe they will assist us in further strengthening the institution’s strength for the sake of national development,” he added.

Payra Port, conceived as Bangladesh's third seaport to reduce dependence on Chattogram and lower logistics costs, is edging towards functional irrelevance as stalled maintenance dredging has silted up its access channel, sharply reducing ship calls.

The consequences are now adding to port congestion, raising power generation costs at two coal-based plants, and exposing serious gaps in infrastructure planning.

Port data shows that in the first half of FY26, only 17 foreign mother vessels called at Payra, down from 111 in FY23 and 123 in FY24. Even in FY25, when traffic had begun to taper, the port handled 85 ships.

The decline is striking given that more than Tk6,500 crore was spent on capital dredging to make Payra accessible to large vessels. Barely a year after completion, big ships are again unable to enter the seaport.

The problem lies in the Rabnabad channel, where heavy siltation has reduced navigable depth.

Officials said the draft has fallen to around 6.5 metres, down from the designed 10.5 metres, effectively barring large vessels and negating the benefits of capital dredging.

Coal ships supplying the Payra Thermal Power Plant and Norinco International Power Limited (RNPL) now unload at Chattogram's outer anchorage. The coal is then brought to Payra via lighter vessels, a slow, costly, and increasingly unsustainable workaround.

Additional lightering strains an already stretched system and has raised electricity generation costs by as much as Tk0.70 per unit, feeding into higher energy prices for consumers.

Payra Port officials blame the crisis on the absence of approved maintenance dredging following the 2024 capital dredging. Over the past year, unchecked siltation has steadily reduced channel depth.

A Tk6,500 crore maintenance dredging project has remained stuck at the proposal stage for nearly a year, officials said, citing the interim government's reluctance to approve major new projects.

Mohammad Jamal Uddin Chowdhury, member (harbour and marine) of the Payra Port Authority, said continuous maintenance dredging was essential immediately after capital dredging.

"That approval didn't come," he told The Business Standard. "As a result, siltation reduced navigability, preventing mother vessels with 8-10.5 metres draught from entering. Coal ships for the power plants now have to unload at Chattogram and be brought here through lightering."

He added that the authority plans to undertake both capital and maintenance dredging and has initiated steps to procure two trailing suction hopper dredgers (TSHDs) to maintain channel depth year-round.

The proposal, however, is still awaiting approval, delayed partly by the election period and the interim government's reluctance to take major policy decisions, said Jamal Uddin.

However, Shipping Adviser Shakhawat Hossain told TBS that delays in submitting the maintenance dredging proposal had worsened the situation.

"A hopper dredger will be required for this work, and procuring one takes time," he said. "The Payra Port Authority is now preparing a fresh proposal, which will take additional time."

On the port's prospects, he said it was too early to say.

Coal ships diverted via Chattogram, costs climb

During FY24, while capital dredging was underway, Payra regularly handled vessels with drafts of around 10 metres, carrying 40,000 to 45,000 tonnes of coal. At times, 12 to 14 coal ships berthed each month.

Now, large carriers are anchored at Kutubdia or Chattogram's outer anchorage, unloading cargo via lighter vessels in batches of 5,000 to 6,000 tonnes to the jetties of Payra Thermal Power Plant and RNPL.

"Big ships can't berth here anymore," said Jobaer Ahmed, superintendent engineer of the Payra Plant. "The plant requires around 300,000 tonnes of coal monthly. Earlier, seven to eight mother vessels handled this directly at our jetty. Now over 200 lighterage vessels are needed."

He added that cranes designed for large ships struggle with smaller lighter vessels. "The process is slow and costly," he said, noting electricity production costs have risen by around Tk0.70 per unit.

Revenue pressure, levy proposed

Since commercial operations began in August 2016, Payra Port has handled 5,338 vessels, including 544 foreign ships, generating around Tk1,861.82 crore in government revenue up to 31 December 2025.

With foreign calls falling, revenue pressure is mounting. To fund dredging, the PPA has proposed an annual Tk700 crore levy on its two largest users – the 1,320MW Payra Thermal Power Plant and RNPL.

Together, the plants consume around 12,000 tonnes of coal daily, importing nearly 10 million tonnes annually, making uninterrupted maritime access critical.

"Our income has definitely declined," Jamal Uddin Chowdhury said. "Without a stable dredging mechanism, this situation will persist."

Big vision, unfinished port

Launched in 2013, Payra was initially conceived as a deep-sea port. The plan was later revised as a standard seaport, 65km inland at the mouth of the Rabnabad channel.

The Payra Port Authority was established under the 2013 Act. Feasibility studies were conducted by British consultancy HR Wallingford, and the masterplan prepared by Dutch firm Royal Haskoning in 2019.

Ships began calling at the outer anchorage that year. Since then, 5,338 domestic and foreign vessels have used the port, generating about Tk267 crore in revenue for the port until December 2025.

Payra remains under construction, with completion scheduled for December 2026. Work continues on terminal equipment, administrative and customs buildings, warehouses, and a six-lane road. Full operations, initially planned for July, are now likely to be delayed until January 2027 due to lack of dredging approval.

The growing threat of a renewed trade war between the United States and the European Union is stoking fears among Bangladeshi garment exporters that retaliatory tariffs could trigger global supply chain volatility and suppress consumer demand in their most vital markets.

Industry insiders say any escalation of tariff measures between the two economic blocs could trigger fresh inflation in the US and Europe, reducing consumer spending and, in turn, demand for Bangladeshi apparel. Such a scenario could further strain exports.

Data show that Bangladesh's overall exports, including readymade garments, have been declining for five consecutive months, while prices in the European market have also softened during the period.

Representatives of foreign buyers sourcing from Bangladesh, however, believe the immediate impact of any new tariff measures would be limited, although prolonged trade tensions could create uncertainty over the longer term.

According to a report by The Guardian, the EU's top diplomats met for crisis talks on Sunday (18 January) and discussed reviving a plan to levy tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) of US goods, which was suspended after last year's trade deal with Trump.

In a post on Saturday on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland beginning 1 February.

Media reports also said Trump threatens a 25% tariff on European allies until Denmark sells Greenland to the US.

Experts warn that such tariff disputes could destabilise not only transatlantic trade but the wider global trading system.

MA Rahim Feroz, vice-chairman of DBL Group – one of Bangladesh's largest apparel exporters with annual turnover exceeding $1 billion – told TBS that higher tariffs in Europe or the US would inevitably lead to inflation.

"If inflation rises, consumers will buy less, which will put significant pressure on us and negatively affect Bangladesh's exports to those markets," he said.

Echoing Feroz, Md Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, warned that imports could be affected if trade tensions intensify.

In 2025, Bangladesh exported garments worth $38.82 billion globally, with nearly 80% destined for the European Union, the US and the UK.

Exporters say Bangladesh has already felt the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with shipments to both the US and Europe coming under strain. They add that garment prices in the European market have declined as a result.

Feroz noted that after the US imposed higher tariffs on China and India than on Bangladesh, the two larger exporters stepped up efforts to sell more in Europe, intensifying competition and forcing Bangladeshi exporters to offer price discounts.

An analysis of Eurostat data by the Bangladesh Apparel Exchange shows that the average price of Bangladeshi apparel exported to Europe fell by 2.06% between January and September 2025. Prices of apparel from other major exporting countries also declined during the same period.

Trade experts see little upside for Bangladesh if a trade war erupts between Europe and the US.

Mostafa Abid Khan, an international trade expert and former member of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, said he does not foresee any major short-term disruption to Bangladesh's exports or imports.

Before the latest tariff announcements, US tariffs on EU goods ranged from zero to 15%, while UK exports to the US faced a 10% tariff. US goods entering the UK are subject to a 6% tariff, and EU data show that a significant number of US products have enjoyed duty-free access to the EU since August.

Buyers remain unconcerned

Despite exporters' worries, foreign buyers say their sourcing from Bangladesh remains unaffected.

A senior official at the Dhaka office of a Sweden-based brand, speaking on condition of anonymity, said potential EU-US tariffs are unlikely to hurt Bangladeshi exports.

"We source around $250 million worth of products from Bangladesh each year, and our order flow remains normal – if anything, it may increase in the future," he said.

Similarly, the country manager of a Germany-based sportswear brand said the tariffs under discussion are selective and unlikely to affect Bangladesh directly. "However, it is still too early to say what the long-term consequences might be if such a situation persists."

Inflow of remittances witnessed a year-on-year growth of 69 percent reaching US$2,040 million in the first 18 days of January, according to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank (BB) issued on Monday.

Last year, during the same period, the country’s remittance inflow was $1,207million.

During the July to January 18, 2026 of the current fiscal year, expatriates sent remittances of $18,305 million, which was $14,983 million during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Another consignment of 57,203 tonnes of wheat from the United States has arrived at Chittagong Port.

The vessel MV Clipper Isadora, carrying the wheat from the US, arrived at the outer anchorage of the port today (19 January), reads a press release.

The shipment has been imported under a cash purchase agreement (G to G-02) signed in line with a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the governments of the United States and Bangladesh.

Under the G to G-02 agreement, a total of 220,000 metric tonnes of wheat will be imported. The MV Clipper Isadora represents the second consignment under this agreement. Earlier, 56,890 metric tonnes of wheat arrived in the country as the first shipment.

Of the 57,203 metric tonnes carried by the vessel, 34,320 metric tonnes will be unloaded at Chattogram Port, while the remaining 22,443 metric tonnes will be discharged at Mongla Port.

Meanwhile, under the earlier G to G-01 agreement, Bangladesh has already imported a total of 220,000 metric tonnes of wheat.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange extended its bullish momentum for a second consecutive session yesterday (19 January) as renewed buying interest across sectors lifted the benchmark index sharply, reflecting a significant recovery in investor sentiment after a prolonged period of market sluggishness.

The benchmark DSEX index jumped 56 points, or 1.12%, to close at 5,091, bringing the cumulative gain over the last two trading days to 133 points. This rally bolstered the market capitalisation by approximately Tk9,000 crore, highlighting the broad-based nature of the day's gains.

The blue-chip index, DS30, also posted a strong performance, rising by 25 points, or 1.33%, to settle at 1,964. Market breadth remained decisively positive, with 268 issues advancing against 72 decliners, while 54 stocks closed unchanged, indicating widespread participation in the rally.

Turnover, a key indicator of market activity, surged by 25% to Tk593 crore, marking a two-month high. The volume was close to the recent peak of Tk636 crore recorded on 25 November 2025, suggesting that both institutional and retail investors are returning to the market with increased confidence.

A managing director of a brokerage firm said the market often witnesses a rally from mid-January each year, largely driven by institutional investors stepping up their participation after year-end adjustments.

He noted that the current market levels remain attractive following a prolonged subdued phase, during which many fundamentally strong stocks traded at discounted prices. As a result, both institutional and retail investors are actively positioning themselves on the buy side.

He further added that the upcoming national election has also sent a positive signal to the market, helping to reduce uncertainty and improve overall investor confidence.

Trading activity was concentrated in several heavyweight and actively traded stocks, with Square Pharmaceuticals, Prime Bank, City Bank, BRAC Bank, and Orion Infusion featuring among the top turnover contributors for the day. These stocks played a key role in pulling the indices higher.

All major large-cap sectors closed in positive territory, reinforcing the strength of the rally. The non-bank financial institution sector led the gains with a jump of over 2%, followed by strong performances from the food and allied, pharmaceutical, and engineering sectors. Fuel and power, telecommunication, and banking stocks also posted modest but positive returns, indicating a balanced sectoral recovery rather than a narrow rally.

The upbeat trend was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange as well. The CSCX index rose by 65 points to close at 8,791, while the broader CASPI advanced 111 points to settle at 14,198. Turnover at the port city bourse stood at Tk12.33 crore, reflecting improved trading activity there too.

Bangladesh Lamps Limited (BD Lamps), a listed electric bulb manufacturer, returned to profit in the second quarter of the current financial year, although it still ended the first half in the red after a loss in the July-September period.

According to its quarterly financial statements, the electric bulb maker posted a profit of Tk10 lakh in the October-December quarter of FY26, with earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.10.

However, because of a loss of Tk1.24 crore in the first quarter, the company reported a net loss of Tk1.14 crore for the July-December period. Even so, the half-year loss narrowed sharply compared with the same period of the previous financial year.

In the first half of FY25, BD Lamps had posted a net loss of Tk5.85 crore, with a loss per share of Tk5.56, the company's filings showed.

Explaining the change in EPS, the company said performance improved compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, supported by revenue growth of 14.1% and a 1.97% rise in gross profit.

In the July-December period of FY26, revenue rose to Tk102.63 crore, from Tk89.91 crore in the same period of the previous year. In the second quarter alone, revenue increased to Tk53.84 crore, up from Tk47.74 crore in the same quarter of FY25.

The company reported net operating cash flow per share of Tk16.30, compared with negative Tk19.41 in the same period a year earlier.

It said operating cash flow improved mainly because of higher customer collections of Tk18.86 crore and lower payments to suppliers amounting to Tk19.96 crore.

Net asset value per share declined to Tk43.39 as of December, from Tk44.99 in December 2024.

In the last financial year, BD Lamps posted a loss of Tk6.55 crore, with a loss per share of Tk6.22. Despite the losses, the company paid a 10% cash dividend to its shareholders.

Yesterday, BD Lamps shares closed at Tk141.30 each on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), down 2.89% from the previous trading session.

Everyone must perform their duties responsibly from their respective positions in the interest of the country, the national economy and the capital market, Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Khondker Rashed Maqsood said today (19 January).

He said the BSEC remains proactive in ensuring the welfare and development of the capital market and will provide all necessary support to stakeholders in this regard, reads a press release.

The BSEC chairman made the remarks during a courtesy meeting and exchange of views with the newly elected executive committee of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies at the BSEC building in Agargaon, Dhaka.

During the meeting, he said BAPLC is one of the key stakeholders of the capital market and plays a particularly important role in its development and reform. He emphasised the need to ensure institutional good governance, transparency and accountability in listed companies, as well as protecting the interests of shareholders and investors.

In the press release, the BSEC said the commission congratulated the newly elected executive committee of BAPLC and called for joint efforts to work together in the interest of the country's capital market and investors.

The meeting, which began at 10am in the commission meeting room, was also attended by BSEC commissioners Md Mohsin Chowdhury, Md Ali Akbar, Farzana Lalarukh and Md Saifuddin, as well as BSEC executive directors, directors and other concerned officials.

Representing BAPLC at the meeting were its president and Managing Director of National Polymer Industries PLC Riyad Mahmud; Managing Director and CEO of Energypac Power Humayun Rashid; Managing Director and CEO of Asia Insurance Md Imam Shaheen; Managing Director of Provati Insurance Md Zahidul Islam; Chief Executive Officer of Eastern Insurance Hasan Tarek; Managing Director of GQ Ball Pen Industries Ujjal Kumar Saha; Director of Robi Axiata Sharif Shah Jamal Raj; Managing Director and CEO of National Housing Finance Mohammad Shamsul Islam; Managing Director of Summit Power Major General (retd) Dr Monirul Islam Akhond; Director of Chartered Life Insurance Md Sharif Hasan; Director of Delta Life Insurance Ziad Rahman; and BAPLC Secretary General Md Amjad Hossain.

Commercial banks will have no alternative but to increase loan disbursement to the private sector as excess liquidity continues to build up in the banking system, Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur said today (19 January).

He made the remarks while speaking at a seminar titled "Systematic Efforts to Understand Economic Pulse: Importance of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)" as the chief guest.

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB) jointly organised the discussion at MCCI's Gulshan office.

James Goldman, deputy high commissioner and development director, British High Commission to Bangladesh, was the special guest at the seminar.

The governor said the deposit growth was 6.40% in December 2024 when the total deposit portfolio was Tk18 trillion.

He said that it means an additional liquidity amounting to Tk1.20 trillion was injected into the money market in 2024 but the government borrowed more than Tk1.20 trillion in that year.

The deposit growth is probably 11% by the end of December last, which means an additional Tk2.20 trillion is projected to be injected into the market. But the government is set to borrow over Tk1 trillion this year, according to the governor.

"So, the banks will have enough liquidity to be invested in the private sector. I think banks would start finding borrowers now," he said.

Mansur said they have given policy support to everyone who seeks such regulatory intervention to get rid of various anti-business hurdles.

He also informed that the central bank is eyeing the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market. "We want to see our corporate flags all over the world. That's why we keep building our forex reserve," he added.

Mansur said the country's balance of payments has strengthened following a rise in foreign exchange inflows, while the financial account has already shown significant improvement.

He noted that deposit growth reached around 11% in November, driven by the overall surplus in the balance of payments.

According to him, higher foreign exchange inflows into the economy have directly contributed to the increase in bank deposits.

Mansur noted that the country built its foreign exchange reserves without IMF dollar support and that its external position is currently in surplus.

Bangladesh's economy picked up pace in Q1 (Jul–Sep) of the current fiscal year FY26, with GDP growth at constant prices rising to 4.50%, up from 2.58% in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Agriculture sector also recovered, expanding 2.30% after a 0.60% contraction a year ago.

Gold prices in Bangladesh have soared to a new all-time high, with the price of 22-carat gold set at Tk238,879 per bhori (11.664 grams), following the latest adjustment by the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus).

In a notification issued late Monday night (19 January), Bajus announced a price hike of Tk4,199 per bhori, pushing gold prices to a record level.

The new rates will come into effect from Tuesday morning.

Under the revised prices, 21-carat gold will cost Tk228,031 per bhori, 18-carat gold Tk195,430 per bhori, while gold under the traditional method has been fixed at Tk160,147 per bhori.

Bajus said the price adjustment was made in view of an increase in the local market price of tejabi gold (pure gold), considering the overall market situation.

The association also noted that a mandatory 5% value-added tax (VAT) imposed by the government and a minimum 6% making charge set by Bajus must be added to the selling price of gold jewellery. However, making charges may vary depending on design and quality.

The last price revision took place on 14 January, when Bajus raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk2,625 per bhori to Tk234,680, which had been the highest price in the country's history until now.

With the latest adjustment, gold prices have been revised eight times so far in 2026, with six increases and two reductions. In 2025, gold prices were adjusted a total of 93 times, raised on 64 occasions and reduced 29 times.

Alongside gold, silver prices have also been increased.

The price of 22-carat silver has been raised by Tk291 per bhori to Tk 6,240, the highest level ever recorded in the country.

Under the new rates, 21-carat silver will cost Tk5,949 per bhori, 18-carat silver Tk5,132 per bhori, and silver under the traditional method Tk3,849 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted five times, with three increases and two reductions.

The International Monetary Fund again edged its 2026 global growth forecast higher on Monday (19 January) as businesses and economies adapt to US tariffs that have eased in recent months and a continued AI investment boom that has fueled asset wealth and expectations of productivity gains.

The IMF in its World Economic Outlook update forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October. That's even with 3.3% growth in 2025, which will also beat the October estimate by 0.1 percentage point, the IMF said.

The global crisis lender forecast 2027 growth at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. It has revised global growth rates higher since last July in response to trade deals that have reduced President Donald Trump's tariff rates that peaked in April 2025.

"We find that global growth remains quite resilient," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the Fund's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.

"So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started," Gourinchas said.
A digital illustration of the map of Bangladesh with a green upward-trending arrow and bar chart, alongside stacks of Bangladeshi Taka currency, symbolizing economic growth.

He said businesses have been able to adapt to higher US tariff rates by rerouting supply chains, while trade agreements have lowered some duties and China has shifted exports to non-US markets. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective US tariff rate of 18.5% down from about 25% in the Fund's April 2025 forecast.

The IMF estimated US growth for 2026 at 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, due in part to a big push from massive investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure including data centers, powerful AI chips and power. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2.0%.

The IMF also said technology investment was boosting activity in Spain, which saw 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and in Britain, where the IMF kept its forecast unchanged at 1.3% for 2026.

Gourinchas said the AI boom poses risks for heightened inflation if it continues at its breakneck pace. But he added that if expectations that AI-driven productivity gains and profits are not realised, this could spark a correction in high market valuations that could crimp demand.

The IMF report lists AI as among risks that are tilted to the downside, along with disruptions to supply chains and markets from geopolitical tensions as well as new flare-ups in trade tensions.

A Supreme Court decision against Trump's broad tariffs under an emergency sanctions law, expected in coming days or weeks, "would inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy" if Trump resurrects new tariffs under other trade laws, Gourinchas said.

But the IMF said that AI represents significant upside for the global economy if the investment surge leads to rapid adoption and productivity gains are realized and boost business dynamism and innovation.

"As a result, global growth may be lifted by as much as 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points per year in the medium-term, depending on the speed of adoption and improvements in AI readiness globally.

Among forecasts for other major economies, the IMF said China's 2026 growth would reach 4.5%, down from a stronger-than-expected 5.0% performance in 2025, but 0.3 percentage point higher than October estimates. The upgrade reflects a 10 percentage-point reduction in US tariff rates on Chinese goods for a year as well as continued diversion of exports to other markets such as Southeast Asia and Europe.

Gourinchas said that China risks running into more protectionist trade policies unless it develops a more balanced growth model that relies less on exports and more on internal demand.

Bangladesh economy to grow 4.6%, inflation to ease to 7.1% in FY26: UN report

The IMF forecast euro zone growth at 1.3% for 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, driven by increased public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland. The Fund kept its 2027 euro zone growth forecast unchanged at 1.4%, noting that planned European increases in defence spending would materialise only in later years.

Japan also saw a slight upgrade to 2026 growth due to its new government's fiscal stimulus package, but Brazil was a notable outlier to the improvement trend, with a 0.3 percentage point reduction in its 2026 growth rate to 1.6% since October. IMF officials attributed the downgrade largely to tighter monetary policy needed to fight a flare-up in inflation last year.

The IMF said that globally, inflation was forecast to continue to decline, from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Gourinchas said this leaves room for more accommodative monetary policy that will help underpin growth.

Portfolio outflows are likely to pressure the Indian rupee and government bonds this week, leaving the currency vulnerable to fresh lows and debt markets under strain, with the focus on debt supply.

The rupee closed at 90.8650 per dollar on Friday (16 January), down 0.7% week-on-week and inching closer to its all-time low of 91.0750 hit in December.

The currency has remained under pressure since steep US tariffs on Indian goods went into effect last year and investors reckon a turnaround in fortunes is unlikely in the absence of a breakthrough in negotiations between New Delhi and Washington.

"The single most important issue remains a comprehensive and balanced trade deal with the United States, probably at least partly dependent on an easing of the personal tensions between Indian PM Modi and US President Donald Trump," said Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager in the emerging markets debt team at Zurich-based Vontobel Asset Management.

The trade limbo has also dulled the sheen of local stocks for foreign investors who have pulled out about $2 billion from local stocks over January so far, contributing to pressure on the rupee.

The dollar index, meanwhile, logged its third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, bolstered by fading odds of imminent rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. While the data calendar is relatively light this week, the focus will be on US personal spending and GDP data.

Meanwhile, rupee traders will be assessing the fallout of the Greenland dispute on the dollar, US yields and risk appetitive. US President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.

Bonds

The 10-year benchmark 6.48% 2035 yield settled at 6.6767% on Friday, up for a third consecutive week on supply worries and missing the bus for a global index inclusion.

Traders expect the yield to move in a 6.63%–6.72% range, with continued attention on the overall demand-supply scenario as well as the central bank's liquidity action.

Last Tuesday, Bloomberg Index Services deferred the inclusion of local bonds to its flagship Global Aggregate Index, which left market participants dejected as they were counting on foreign inflows amid worries over excess supply and elevated yields.

Vermassen, who expects inflows of $20 billion from the Bloomberg index inclusion, said it would not be a game-changer, with the impact being somewhat smaller, in relative terms, than the earlier inclusion in JPMorgan index.

Heavy weekly borrowing from the centre and states continues, with aggregate gross supply of 8 trillion rupees this quarter. This has pressured yields, leading to the spread widening between federal and state government debt.

"We expect spread to increase further given higher state debt supply and lower demand from market participants. We do not see any significant impact on central government bond yields," said Srinivas Rao Ravuri, chief investment officer at Bajaj Life Insurance.

An Afghan delegation headed by the country’s deputy commerce minister met Bangladesh’s commerce secretary today, expressing hope for duty-free bilateral trade.

Deputy Minister of Commerce and Industry of Afghanistan, Mawlawi Ahmadullah Zahid, made the proposal during a meeting with Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman at the latter’s office in Dhaka.

Zahid led the Afghan delegation of five to six members, said a senior commerce ministry official who asked not to be named.

It was not a formal bilateral meeting where documents or proposals were usually exchanged, the official added.

At the meeting, the Afghan deputy minister said his country seeks duty-free export of nearly 45 products to Bangladesh, including cotton, aiming to expand bilateral trade ties.

At the same time, he offered duty-free import of almost all major exportable commodities from Bangladesh.

Afghanistan considers Bangladesh a major source for RMG products, pharmaceuticals, beverages, confectionery, and packaged spices, Zahid added.

The commerce secretary could not be reached by phone for comments after the meeting.

A businessman involved in exports to Afghanistan said the two countries currently trade 98 products.

In terms of exporting dry food, fruits, stones, saffron, and almonds, Afghanistan may want to capture more of the market in Bangladesh, the businessman added.

Zahid arrived in Dhaka on Sunday as the head of the delegation, aiming to expand trade and economic ties.

A few months ago, another delegation from Afghanistan visited Bangladesh to discuss bilateral trade and investment with senior government officials.

The dollar fell on Monday as investors unnerved by US President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland piled into the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, in a broad risk-averse move across markets.

Trump said over the weekend he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from 1 February on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.

Major European Union states decried the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.

In the foreign exchange market, the initial knee-jerk reaction in early Asia trade was to sell the euro and sterling, in a move that pushed them to a seven-week low and one-month trough of $1.1572 and $1.3321, respectively.

However, the two currencies bounced from their lows and it was the dollar that came under pressure as the trading day got underway, as investors assessed the longer-term implications of Trump's latest move on the greenback's standing.

That helped the euro reverse its losses as it gained 0.21% to trade at $1.1623, while the British pound similarly recovered 0.11% to $1.3390.

"Typically you would think tariffs being threatened would lead to a weaker euro, but as we've seen last year as well, when the Liberation Day tariffs were getting put in place, the impact in FX markets actually has been more towards dollar weakness every time there is heightened policy uncertainty emanating from the US," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

Investors had dumped the dollar in the wake of last April's "Liberation Day" announcement when Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on the world, triggering a crisis of confidence in US assets.

A similar trend played out on Monday, as the greenback slid 0.36% against the safe-haven Swiss franc to 0.7993, and was down 0.24% to 157.74 yen.

The dollar index eased slightly to 99.18.

"While you would argue that the tariffs threaten Europe, in fact, it's actually the dollar that is bearing the brunt of it, because I think markets are pricing in increased political risk premia on the US dollar," said Goh.

Cryptocurrencies, which are often used as a gauge of risk sentiment, were also sold off heavily.

Bitcoin was down more than 3% to $92,477.54, while ether sank roughly 4% to $3,203.13.

In Asia, data on Monday showed China's economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, a touch above analysts' expectations and bang in line with the government's annual growth target.

The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.9647 per dollar following the release, while its offshore counterpart was a touch stronger at 6.9608 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, which is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, similarly did not budge on the data. It was last down 0.09% at $0.6685, as it remained under pressure from the broad risk-off move.

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.5766.

The government has decided to sell properties owned by Nassa Group to clear outstanding wages and service benefits for its workers, Labour and Employment Adviser M Sakhawat Hussain said on Sunday.

A sale of assets will be carried out in accordance with court directives, the adviser said at an Advisory Council Committee meeting on reviewing conditions of industrial units in Beximco Industrial Park, held at the Secretariat.

Nassa Group has so far paid Tk 76 crore to workers by selling company shares through a court-appointed administrator, a ministry press release quoted him as saying.

The group has also made down payments to eight banks under instructions from the Bangladesh Bank.

Remaining payments to another 15 banks and the settlement of outstanding worker arrears will be addressed through the sale of Nassa Group assets via open and competitive processes, following court guidance.

The group, which employed more than 30,000 workers in textile and garment operations and also has stakes in banking and real estate, faced financial turmoil after its chairman, Nazrul Islam Mazumder, was arrested in October 2024 over a murder case linked to the July uprising.

Media reports indicate that most of Nassa’s operations have remained paralysed since the change of government in August 2024, with factories shuttered and unpaid bank loans mounting to several thousand crore taka.

Earlier, the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit alleged Mazumder’s involvement in trade-based money laundering worth about Tk 16,000 crore, including Tk 4,717 crore reportedly siphoned from EXIM Bank through 18 shell companies during his tenure as chairman from 2007 to August 2024.

The dollar fell on Monday as investors unnerved by ​US President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland piled into the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, ‌in a broad risk-averse move across markets.

Trump said over the weekend he would impose an additional 10 percent import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.

Major European Union nations decried the Greenland tariff threats as blackmail on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.

In the foreign exchange market, the knee-jerk reaction in ‌early Asia trade was to sell the euro and sterling , pushing the currencies to a seven-week low of $1.1572 ​and a one-month trough of $1.3321, respectively.

As the trading day got underway, both bounced from their lows, however, with the dollar coming under pressure as investors assessed the longer-term implications of Trump's latest move on the greenback.
That helped the euro reverse its losses, gaining 0.3 percent to trade ‍at $1.1634, while the British pound similarly recovered 0.16 percent to $1.3397.

"Typically you would think tariffs being threatened would lead to a weaker euro," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

"But, as we've seen last year as well, when the 'Liberation Day' tariffs were getting put in place, the impact in FX markets actually has ⁠been more towards dollar weakness every time there is heightened policy uncertainty emanating from the United States."

Investors had dumped the dollar after Trump ‍unveiled sweeping tariffs on the world last April, triggering a crisis of confidence in US assets.

A similar trend played out on Monday, as the greenback slid ‌0.45 percent against ‌the safe-haven Swiss franc to 0.7985, and was down 0.21 percent at 157.77 yen.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur on Monday expressed strong optimism regarding the country’s macroeconomic stability, projecting that foreign currency reserves are on track to meet and surpass US$35 billion by the end of the current fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

“Reaching the $35 billion mark would establish a very comfortable level for the economy,” he said while speaking at a seminar on “Systematic Efforts to Understand Economic Pulse: Importance of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)” at Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) office in the city.

MCCI and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB) jointly organised the seminar.

In his speech, Ahsan H. Mansur clarified that this target is expected to be met without relying on IMF money, stating that any additional external funding would simply be icing on the cake rather than a necessity for hitting the target.

The governor highlighted significant progress in the balance of payments and the external sector.

While acknowledging that the export sector is currently facing headwinds and remains a weak point, the governor pointed to favourable developments in global import prices.

He noted that the country has achieved terms of trade gains due to significantly reduced energy prices and generally stable or declining commodity prices.

“If you look at petroleum price for example the price average decline is about 30%,” the Governor stated, adding that this reduction represents a direct gain for the economy.

Consequently, while import payments have increased by approximately 5% to 6% this year, the actual volume of imports has risen much more significantly, he added.

He said this growth in volume is corroborated by data from the Chittagong port, which indicates strong increases in both tonnage and container numbers.

The governor addressed the very difficult liquidity situation the banking sector previously faced, which began with a shortage of foreign exchange.

He revealed that the central bank had to settle accumulated arrears totalling approximately $3.5 billion.

The Governor explained that a prior drop in reserves from $48 billion to $20 billion had caused a massive contraction in the money supply, with trillions of taka leaving the country.

This led to a severe deceleration in deposit growth, which stood at only 6.4% as of December 2024, creating a scarcity of funds for private sector financing, he added.Import financing solutions

The Governor cited recent data showing that deposit growth has rebounded to 11%.

“With total deposits now standing at approximately 20 trillion taka, this growth rate translates to an influx of roughly 2.2 trillion taka into the system,” he added.

Emphasizing the importance of real-time analytics, the Governor remarked that policymakers do not have a crystal ball and must rely on high-frequency data—such as daily exchange rates, interbank interest rates, and remittance flows—to make decisions.

He shared positive news regarding remittances, noting that daily collection had recently topped $170 million, and monthly figures were tracking at roughly 70% of the previous month’s total at the time of the speech.

The governor also welcomed the introduction of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as a new kid in town, thanking the MCCI and Policy Exchange for the initiative, noting that the addition of such indicators aids in the art of policymaking.

Deputy High Commissioner and Development Director, British High Commission to Bangladesh James Goldman attended the seminar as the special guest while MCCI President Kamran T. Rahman delivered the welcome speech.

PEB Chairman and CEO Dr. M. Masrur Reaz delivered the keynote presentation while Head of Prosperity and Economic Growth, FCDO Issam Mosaddeq delivered the Contextual Background on PMI.

Local apparel exporters have opposed the commerce ministry’s recommendation to remove duty benefits on certain yarn imports under the bonded warehouse facility.

They argue that such restrictions would force them to spend more on locally produced yarn, which eventually will reduce the global competitiveness of the country’s ready-made garments at a time when export growth is slowing.

The commerce ministry recently recommended the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to scrap duty benefits on imported yarn of 10 to 30-count, a medium-to-coarse range widely used in knitwear production.

The move is meant for protecting local spinners, who claim they were sitting on Tk 12,000 crore of unsold stock as of December last year amid a surge of Indian yarn.

At a joint press conference at Pan Pacific Sonargaon Dhaka yesterday, leaders of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) said local spinners should expand capacity and modernise production rather than depending on an “artificial duty shield”.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said they are relying more on Indian yarns because of their competitive prices. “In this case, shorter lead-time is not a major factor,” he said.

Leaders at the press conference criticised the commerce ministry for not consulting with them before making the decision. They said that officials of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), which operates under the commerce ministry, held meetings with them.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said that no decision on duty withdrawal was made during discussions with BTTC officials.

The garment-makers said they would be willing to purchase local yarn even if it cost 20 cents more per kilogramme. Currently, the price differences range from 30 to 40 cents per kilogramme.

Acting BGMEA President Selim Rahman said the price of widely used 30 count yarn ranges from $2.50 to $2.60 per kilogram internationally, compared with $3 per kilogram for locally produced yarn.

In fiscal 2022-23, imported yarn from India cost Tk 428.37 per kilogram, yet the same quantity sold locally at Tk 389.18 per kilogram. Rahman said spinning mills are running below capacity due to gas shortages, which limit their ability to meet demand.

He warned that withdrawing the bond facility would harm garment shipments. Apparel exports fell by 2.63 percent in July-December this fiscal year, with a 14.23 percent decline in December alone.

Rahman urged local millers to modernise production to diversify yarn types and meet buyer demand.

On Sunday, apparel exporters sent a letter to the finance ministry elaborating on their concerns and mentioning almost the same demands they made yesterday.

At the press conference, garment manufacturers also proposed a number of alternatives to support the domestic spinning sector.

They suggested a 5 percent cash incentive for using local yarn to protect the $25 billion invested in the primary textile sector from being undercut by cheaper Indian imports.

The exporters also urged the government to ensure adequate gas and power supply to industrial units, as most spinning mills are running at just 60 percent capacity due to utility shortages.

They called for corporate tax rebates for export-oriented yarn producers and low-interest loans to reduce production costs and improve competitiveness.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan called for urgent talks with the government to reach a workable solution.

Previously, on December 29, the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) asked the BTTC to either suspend the bonded warehouse benefit or impose a 20 percent tariff on widely used imported yarn.

A commerce ministry letter to the NBR said that Bangladesh will need a two-stage transformation of garment items for entering key markets such as Europe, Australia, the UK, the USA, and Japan after graduating from least-developed country status in November.

To maintain GSP Plus privileges in the post-LDC era, local value addition will need to reach 40 percent.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) on Sunday convened its 5th monthly coordination meeting with capital market stakeholders, emphasising major legal reforms and the strategic direction of the market.

Held at the BSEC Multipurpose Hall in the city, the meeting was attended by senior officials, including Dr. Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser, and BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, alongside various commissioners and top representatives from stakeholder organisations, said a press release.

Major Legal Reforms Completed BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood highlighted the commission’s recent legislative achievements, noting that the completion of the Margin Rules 2025, Mutual Fund Rules 2025, and Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules 2025 represents the fulfillment of the regulator’s main reform tasks.

Describing the Initial Public Offering (IPO) as the heart of the capital market, Rashed Maqsood stated that the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules 2025 has paved the way for new IPOs to enter the market.

He urged market stakeholders to utilize these opportunities immediately, noting that a significant portion of legal reforms had been finalized by 2025.

Focus on collaboration and long-term planning, Dr. Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, who heads the committee formed by the Financial Institutions Division to strengthen the BSEC, addressed the attendees regarding the necessity of collaborative problem-solving.

“We must work to solve the identified obstacles and move forward. Everyone must cooperate and work together for solutions,” Dr. Chowdhury stated, expressing satisfaction with the mechanism of holding regular stakeholder meetings.

He directed stakeholders to resolve existing impediments quickly and called for working toward market development with specific goals set through long-term planning.

The meeting featured detailed open discussions on a wide range of initiatives aimed at market development and reform. Key topics included adoption of a 5-year development plan for the capital market; introduction of new products and the launch of a commodity exchange; listing state-owned and multinational companies; implementation of e-KYC for customer information and online BO account opening; enhancement of API connectivity among capital market institutions and facilitation of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and ensuring institutional good governance.

Furthermore, the discussion addressed the expansion of merchant banks’ scope of work and bringing the Central Counterparty Bangladesh Limited (CCBL) into operation. To boost investor confidence and awareness, initiatives to involve district administrations and broadcast fortnightly investment education programs on Bangladesh Television were also discussed.

The summit saw the participation of key market leaders, including DSE Chairman Mominul Islam, CCBL Chairman Major General (Retd.) Md. Wahid-Uz-Zaman, DSE Brokers Association (DBA) President Saiful Islam, and ICB Managing Director Niranjan Chandra Debnath.

Representatives from the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association (BMBA), Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), and various asset management companies were also present.