The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has surpassed its target for new VAT registrations in December, bringing 131,000 previously unregistered businesses under the VAT net through a special nationwide drive.

The registrations were made under a campaign conducted from December 10 to December 31, following the observance of VAT Day on December 10 and VAT Week from December 10 to 15, according to a press release.

This year's VAT Day theme was "Register on time, pay VAT correctly".

As part of the initiative, the NBR had set a target to register 100,000 unregistered businesses across the country.

However, the drive exceeded expectations, with the country's 12 VAT commissionerates jointly registering 131,000 establishments within a single month.

Before launching the drive, Bangladesh had 644,000 VAT-registered entities, and now the number stands at 775,000.

Prior to the interim government assuming office, the number of registered entities was around 516,000.

VAT remains the single largest source of government revenue. Of the total revenue collected last year from customs duty, VAT, and income tax, VAT accounted for 38 percent.

Officials said expanding the VAT base is critical to boosting domestic resource mobilisation and reducing dependence on a relatively small pool of compliant taxpayers.

Stocks witnessed a strong start on the first trading day of 2026 as key indices of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) posted notable gains during the opening session today (1 January).

The benchmark index DSEX surged by 41 points to reach 4,907 by 11am, reflecting renewed investor optimism at the beginning of the new year. The blue-chip index DS30 also advanced, gaining 13 points to stand at 1,867.

Market activity showed broad-based participation, with 331 issues advancing against only 12 decliners, while 28 issues remained unchanged during the session.

Turnover in the opening hours amounted to Tk82.60 crore, indicating active trading interest among investors.

Market observers said the upbeat opening reflects positive sentiment as investors reposition portfolios at the start of the year.

Aramit Ltd, a roofing material company listed on both stock exchanges, has recommended a 10% cash dividend for its shareholders for the 2024-25 fiscal year.

The declared dividend for FY25 is halved from the 20% cash dividend in the previous fiscal, according to its disclosure.

Aramit Ltd reported a 16% decline in net profit to Tk1.05 crore in FY25 from Tk1.25 crore in FY24, while earnings per share (EPS) fell to Tk1.75 from Tk2.09, data showed.

Its net asset value per share declined to Tk128.67, and net operating cash flow per share surged to Tk19.85. In FY24, its net value per share was Tk136.10 and cash negative at Tk3.65.

The annual general meeting (AGM) is scheduled on 4 March, and to identify its shareholders, the record date has been fixed on 27 January.

Incurs loss in Jul-Sep

Despite posting a profit till June 2025, Aramit Ltd reported a loss of Tk71.40 lakh with a loss per share of Tk1.19 in the July-September quarter.

At the same time, in the previous fiscal year, it had made a profit of Tk26.40 lakh with an EPS of Tk0.44.

Aramit Ltd got listed on the bourse in 1984, and its paid-up capital is Tk6 crore.

Of the total shares, sponsor Sadharan Bima Corporation (SBC), a state-owned insurer, owns the highest 23.77% stake, while Javed Steel Mills Limited owns 19.97%, Asif Steel Limited 14.97% and Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) 2.03% stake in the company.

Its shareholding data showed that sponsor-directors held 60.74% stake, ICB Unit Fund as institutional investors owns 9.21% stake, other institutional investors and general shareholders own 24.13% stake in the company.

Liquidity on the small and medium enterprise (SME) board of the Dhaka Stock Exchange is expected to improve after the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) decided to significantly lower the minimum investment threshold required for investors to trade on the platform.

Under the new decision, investors with at least Tk10 lakh invested in the secondary market will now be eligible to buy and sell shares on the SME board. The threshold had previously stood at Tk30 lakh, a level widely criticised by market participants for limiting participation and suppressing trading activity. The decision was taken at the regulator's 990th commission meeting held on 30 December 2025, according to sources familiar with the development.

As per the revised requirement, both local and foreign investors must maintain a minimum portfolio value of Tk10 lakh in the secondary market of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) to qualify for SME trading. To implement the change, the commission will amend its earlier directive issued on 21 September 2022, which had raised the investment requirement to Tk30 lakh.

A senior BSEC official said the move was intended to resolve a long-standing inconsistency between the regulator's rules and subsequent directives. In September 2022, the commission notified the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Qualified Investor Offer by Small Capital Company) Rules, 2022. Under those rules, resident and non-resident Bangladeshi individuals who have been active investors for at least one year and hold a minimum portfolio investment of Tk10 lakh are defined as qualified investors for the SME board.

However, shortly after issuing the rules, the then commission led by Shibli Rubayat Ul Islam increased the eligibility threshold to Tk30 lakh through a separate directive. This created a mismatch between the rules and the directive, leading to confusion among investors and market intermediaries. The current commission has now decided to align the directive with the original rules, the official added.

The SME board was created to provide small and medium-sized companies with an alternative route to raise capital through the stock market. Companies with paid-up capital of at least Tk5 crore and up to Tk30 crore can list on the platform through a qualified investors' offer. The platform was designed to support growing businesses while offering investors access to high growth but relatively riskier companies.

Market participants have long argued that the higher investment threshold discouraged participation and undermined the core objective of the SME board.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh, told The Business Standard that brokers had consistently opposed the Tk30 lakh requirement, as it contradicted the qualified investor offer rules approved by the regulator itself.

He said the latest decision would make it easier for investors to participate in SME trading, which should help improve liquidity on a platform that has remained largely inactive since its launch.

According to him, excessive and frequent regulatory interventions over the years eroded investor confidence and made many market participants hesitant to engage with the SME segment.

Since its inception, the SME board has struggled to gain traction. Trading activity has remained thin, and investor interest has gradually waned. In 2025, the SME index, known as DSMEX, fell by more than 21% to close at around 855 points. Daily average turnover hovered around Tk5 crore, highlighting the lack of depth and participation in the market. No new companies were listed on the SME platform during the year, further reflecting its stagnation.

The investment threshold for SME trading has been revised multiple times since the platform's introduction, adding to uncertainty. Initially, the BSEC set the minimum investment requirement at Tk50 lakh in September 2021, when trading on the SME board formally began. The threshold was later reduced to Tk20 lakh in February 2022 before being raised again to Tk30 lakh in September 2022. The frequent changes made it difficult for investors to plan and contributed to declining interest.

The regulator has traditionally justified higher eligibility requirements on the grounds that SME stocks tend to be more volatile due to their lower paid-up capital and limited public float. The platform has also been considered riskier for retail investors, prompting the regulator to restrict access to so-called qualified investors. However, critics argue that overly restrictive rules defeated the purpose of creating a vibrant secondary market for SME shares.

The SME board itself has a relatively short history. The BSEC framed the SME rules in November 2018, and the stock exchanges introduced the platform in September 2019. Actual trading began in September 2021. At present, shares of 20 companies are traded on the platform, but most of them see limited daily transactions.

Stocks ended the week in the green, buoyed by optimism over improved political clarity, as investors selectively turned to undervalued blue-chip scrips ahead of the national elections.

Z-category stocks — non-compliant and non-dividend-paying companies — dominated the weekly gainer chart, recording gains ranging from 10% to as high as 28%, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

Meanwhile, several A-category stocks that paid dividends of over 10% came under selling pressure, pushing their prices lower.

Despite the DSEX closing higher, market participation has yet to recover, as most investors remain cautious and await clearer signals on the market's direction. This was reflected in average daily turnover, which declined a further 1.2% to Tk354.3 crore.

Market capitalisation, the total value of a publicly traded company's outstanding common shares, slightly increased by 0.58% to Tk6.80 lakh crore.

Of the traded stocks, the majority or 231 stock prices increased, 113 stock prices declined, and 45 stock prices remained unchanged, the DSE data showed.

EBL Securities, in its weekly commentary, said the benchmark index of the capital bourse managed to maintain its upward trajectory, buoyed by an optimistic start to the first session of the new year that overshadowed the early week's subdued momentum, since investors anticipated improved clarity on the political front, which prompted accumulation of undervalued scrips ahead of the national elections."

"Despite a cautious start as sentiment remained subdued amid lingering electoral developments, the momentum upturned in the final sessions of the week, riding on new year optimism and portfolio rebalancing activities, coupled with the investors' perception of a stable political environment, which pushed the market indices into positive territory by the week's close, it reads.

Z-stocks dominate the top gainers' list

DSE's weekly report showed that of the top ten gainers in terms of closing prices over the previous week, eight were from the Z-category, one A-category and one B-category stock.

The highest gains were for BD Welding, a non-performing stock, with the gains of 28.38% to TK19 each. A week ago, its share price was Tk14.80 each, data shows.

Tallu Spinning Mills, another non-performing textile firm, shares surged 25.45% to Tk6.9 each, followed by Islamic Finance by 17.86% to Tk9.90 each, Apex Spinning Mills, A-category stocks, surged 16.32% to Tk193.20 each, and Regent Textile by 14.29% to Tk4 each.

However, on the loser side, of the top ten losers, six A-category stocks saw price decline, while four were from the Z-category stocks.

The highest price erosion was for International Leasing by 8.96% to Tk0.61 each, followed by Jamuna Oil Company by 8.93% to Tk168.20 each, Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills by 7.90% to Tk137.60 each, IFIC First Mutual Fund by 7.69% to Tk2.40%, and Popilar First Mutual Fund by 7.69% to Tk2.40 each.

In the last week, investors were mostly active in the Textile sector, followed by the Bank and Pharma sectors. Most of the sectors exhibited positive returns, with the Paper sector by 5.4% being the highest gainer, while the mutual fund was the biggest loser by -1.6%.

Chattogram Port, the backbone of Bangladesh's foreign trade, delivered its strongest operational performance on record in 2025 even as it remained under intense public and political scrutiny over controversial tariffs and the leasing of facilities to foreign operators.

The year was defined by deep fault lines between the Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) and key stakeholders – businesses, labour groups, and political actors – with disputes escalating despite a historic operational output that underscored the contradiction of conflict on the surface and capacity expansion underneath.

Quadruple container charges trigger first flashpoint

The port entered the year in controversy after the CPA decided to impose a fourfold storage charge on containers kept beyond the free time.

Imports and exports surged in January and February 2025, pushing yard occupancy beyond capacity by mid-February. Alarmed by worsening congestion, the CPA issued formal notices to importers and C&F agents and began enforcing the quadruple charge from 10 March.

Business leaders accepted that the measure reduced congestion but warned it would raise logistics costs and hurt the wider economy. The issue quickly became the first major point of confrontation between port users and the authority.

Following sustained pressure, the CPA temporarily suspended the fourfold charge for one month from 26 August and continued the suspension until 30 December. On 30 December, the authority again announced a suspension, this time for two months.

41% tariff hike deepens business backlash

Before tensions over container storage eased, the CPA announced an average 41% increase in tariffs across multiple port services.

Declared on 15 September, the revised rates were applied to all vessels arriving after midnight on 14 October. The authority argued the hike was necessary to support infrastructure upgrades and service improvements.

Port users strongly disagreed. Businesses held coordination meetings, while the Port Users' Forum staged protest programmes, calling the increase excessive and poorly timed. The dispute eventually reached the courts, widening the rift between the CPA and the private sector.

Foreign operators and labour unrest

As businesses protested tariffs, another controversy gathered momentum: the appointment of foreign operators to run key terminals.

The issue intensified in June when the contract of Saif Powertec, the operator of the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT), expired. Workers opposed handing over the country's largest container terminal to a foreign company, fearing job losses and loss of national control.

Despite opposition, the government pressed ahead. After Saif Powertec's contract ended on 30 June, the NCT was temporarily taken over by Chittagong Dry Dock Limited under the Bangladesh Navy.

At the same time, the CPA moved forward with plans to involve foreign firms at other facilities, setting the stage for a wider movement to "save" the port.

'Save Chattogram Port' movement

The leasing of port facilities to foreign companies became one of the most defining issues of 2025.

The process had begun under the now-ousted Awami League government, which initiated plans to lease major installations, including the NCT and the proposed Laldia Container Terminal. In June 2024, the Patenga Container Terminal was handed over to Saudi Arabia-based Red Sea Gateway Terminal International.

After the Awami League government fell on 5 August 2024 amid a student-led mass uprising, the interim government assumed office and continued the policy. On 17 November 2025, the CPA signed a 33-year agreement with Denmark-based APM Terminals, a subsidiary of AP Moller-Maersk, to operate the proposed Laldia Container Terminal. On the same day, the government signed a 22-year concession agreement with Switzerland-based Medlog to operate the Pangaon Inland Container Terminal on the banks of the Buriganga.

Earlier discussions with UAE-based DP World to operate the NCT, initiated under the previous government, were also carried forward by the interim administration.

These decisions triggered widespread protests. Left-leaning political parties accused the government of handing over national assets to foreign entities without transparency. They raised concerns over secrecy in the contracts and potential risks to national security.

The movement echoed past resistance. In 1998, a plan by the Awami League government to establish a private port at the Karnaphuli River mouth with US-based SSA Ports was scrapped following leftist protests and a High Court writ filed by Communist Party of Bangladesh leader Mohammad Shah Alam and others.

In 2025, opposition intensified. Leftist groups organised a Dhaka-Chattogram road march in June. Trade Union Centre, Jatiyatabadi Sramik Dal, Port Workers' Union and other labour organisations joined the protests. The strongest mobilisation came under the banner of Sramik-Karmachari Oikya Parishad, which even enforced port blockade programmes. Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam also issued statements opposing the leasing deals.

Port officials rejected the allegations, saying workers were being misled with fears of job losses. They dismissed national security concerns as unfounded, arguing that foreign operators function under strict government oversight.

Despite months of agitation, the government remained firm, making the "Save Chattogram Port" movement a central political and economic storyline of the year.

Record-breaking performance

While disputes dominated headlines, Chattogram Port delivered unprecedented operational results.

According to CPA data, the port handled 3.409 million TEUs of containers in 2025, the highest in its history. Cargo handling also rose by 11.43% year-on-year.

As Bangladesh's principal seaport, Chattogram handles around 92% of the country's general import-export cargo and nearly 98% of containerised trade. Port officials say the record figures reflect ongoing modernisation efforts and underline the urgency of expanding capacity.

Multinational companies (MNCs) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) endured a difficult year in 2025, as weak investor sentiment, falling earnings, and subdued trading activity combined to drag down their share prices despite their traditionally defensive appeal.

Market data compiled by EBL Securities and BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage show that most MNC stocks ended the year in negative territory, reflecting broader market stress and a sharp disconnect between fundamentals and valuations.

Bata Shoe Bangladesh saw its share price fall by more than 11% during the year, even as it continued to offer an attractive dividend yield of nearly 5%. However, the company's earnings declined sharply by almost 48% in the January-September period, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio to an elevated level above 64, which dampened investor appetite.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh suffered one of the steepest corrections among MNCs, with its share price plunging over 32% amid a 45.5% drop in earnings. Despite offering an 8.2% dividend yield, concerns over declining profitability and regulatory pressures weighed heavily on the stock.

Berger Paints Bangladesh and Grameenphone also struggled throughout the year. Berger's share price slid nearly 20% as earnings contracted by close to 38%, while Grameenphone lost more than 20% of its market value alongside a 23% decline in earnings. Although Grameenphone continued to provide a double-digit dividend yield, persistent revenue pressure and uncertainty over the telecom sector outlook kept investors cautious.

Big names stumble as earnings diverge in sluggish 2025 market

Cement producers Heidelberg Materials and LafargeHolcim Bangladesh posted mixed performances. Heidelberg's share price edged down marginally, but earnings dropped sharply by nearly 44%, while LafargeHolcim managed modest earnings growth of 7.4% despite a double-digit fall in its share price.

Linde Bangladesh recorded one of the most dramatic earnings declines, with profits plunging over 95%, resulting in a sharp fall in share price despite its exceptionally high dividend yield.

In contrast, Marico Bangladesh emerged as a rare outperformer among MNCs. Its share price rose more than 17% during 2025, supported by earnings growth of over 14% and a strong dividend yield.

Robi Axiata also stood out, delivering earnings growth exceeding 54%, though its share price remained largely flat, underscoring the market's reluctance to reward even strong earnings momentum.

Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever Consumer Care posted modest earnings growth, but their share prices declined, reflecting persistent risk aversion.

Market observers note that while MNCs continue to offer relatively stable dividends and strong corporate governance, falling earnings, high valuations in some cases and overall market pessimism limited their appeal in 2025.

The underperformance of MNC stocks mirrors the broader equity market, where weak liquidity, macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious investor behaviour overshadowed company-specific strengths throughout the year.

Most US Federal Reserve policymakers view further interest rate cuts as appropriate if inflation cools over time, minutes of their latest gathering showed on Tuesday.

But some officials also suggested that it would probably be appropriate to keep rates "unchanged for some time" after the latest reduction in December.

Officials voted 9-3 to lower rates by a quarter percentage point this month, bringing levels to a range between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent.

But a few who supported this third consecutive cut indicated that their decision was "finely balanced" or that they could have instead backed keeping rates unchanged.

The Fed's meeting minutes highlight the tightrope that officials walk as they balance the need to shore up a weakening labor market against risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

Policymakers have been split over the pace of rate cuts, with lower rates serving to boost the economy while higher levels are aimed at tamping down inflation as President Donald Trump's tariffs bite.

In December, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee joined Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid to support keeping rates unchanged. Fed Governor Stephen Miran also dissented -- favoring a bigger, half-point reduction.

While officials also penciled in one more cut in 2026, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank could hold off on doing so in the coming months.

For now, the Fed's minutes showed that officials expect inflation to be "somewhat elevated in the near term" before moving gradually to their two-percent target.

But even as many anticipate that the effects of tariffs on underlying goods inflation would wane, some were wary about "when these effects would diminish or the extent to which tariffs would ultimately be passed through to final goods prices."

Some flagged risks that elevated inflation might prove more stubborn than expected.

Meanwhile, most policymakers gauged that recent indicators signaled a continued cooldown in employment. But their outlook remained uncertain amid delays in government data releases after a record-long shutdown.

Policymakers also noted that lower-income households were especially worried about their employment prospects.

They saw stronger spending growth among higher-income households, while those who made less money have adjusted their spending due to an "outsized cumulative increase in the prices of basic goods and services over the past several years."

The Fed's rate-setting committee has 12 voting members who take a majority vote in deciding on rates.

China's factory activity ticked up slightly in December, official data showed Wednesday, an unexpected silver lining to cap an otherwise lacklustre end to the year for the world's second-largest economy.

A key measure of industrial health, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 50.1 this month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

That sits just above the 50-point mark separating contractions from expansions.

The figure had not been positive since March.

December's reading was significantly higher than a Bloomberg forecast based on a survey of economists, which had predicted the figure to hold steady at 49.2.

Additionally, the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in December, NBS data showed, returning to positive territory after an unexpected dip to 49.5 the previous month.

NBS statistician Huo Lihui hailed "an overall improvement in the country's economic activity", according to a statement offering official interpretations of the data.

The indicators are encouraging signs for policymakers in Beijing battling persistent headwinds in the domestic economy.

Entrenched consumer caution fuelled by a years-long debt crisis in the property sector has weighed on China's growth outlook, spurring calls for leaders to step up support measures.

In a stark indication of China's consumer woes, retail sales grew in November at their slowest pace in nearly three years, official data showed this month.

Reversing the decline has become a top priority for leaders and was a key theme at a closely watched political meeting in Beijing this month focused on economic planning.

Authorities announced Tuesday that 62.5 billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in new funds would be directed towards an existing consumer goods trade-in scheme in the new year.

The subsidies designed to encourage spending will apply to certain big-ticket items including refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, automobiles and computers.

Wednesday's PMI expansions "point to a partial reversal of the recent weakness in investment spending and construction activity", wrote Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a note following the data release.

Momentum in the country's service sector "remains weak", while growth in manufacturing is heavily dependent on exports, he warned.

"The big picture is that the structural headwinds from the property downturn and industrial overcapacity are set to persist in 2026," he added.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves have surged to the $33 billion mark, reaching a three-year high, bolstered by a massive influx of remittances and strategic dollar purchases by the central bank.

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bank, expatriate Bangladeshis sent $3.04 billion in the 29 days of December 2025. This robust inflow has provided critical support in easing the country’s ongoing dollar shortage and stabilizing the economy.

The total gross reserves now stand at $33.18 billion, the highest level since 2022. For comparison, reserves had plummeted to $25.58 billion during the fall of the regime in August 2024. Under the IMF’s BPM6 manual calculation, the current reserves stand at $28.51 billion, which was $20.47 billion.

Historical data show that Bangladesh’s reserves first crossed the $33 billion threshold in 2017, later peaking at a record $48 billion in 2021 before facing a steady decline.

To maintain market stability and build a safety net, Bangladesh Bank so far purchased over $3.13 billion from commercial banks. The central bank purchased over $1 billion in December alone.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur recently expressed optimism, stating that reserves are expected to reach between $34 billion and $35 billion by the end of December.

"We are building our reserves by purchasing dollars from our own internal economy rather than relying on external loans from the IMF or other agencies," the Governor remarked, describing the strategy as a sustainable and "positive decision" for the nation’s financial health.

The performance of Bangladesh's largest listed companies in 2025 has highlighted a growing disconnect between corporate earnings and share prices, as weak investor sentiment and subdued trading activity continued to weigh on the broader market.

Even companies with strong earnings growth failed to escape the impact of prolonged market pessimism, according to a research report by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage.

In its report titled "Performance Review 2025", the brokerage said that despite a relatively strong third quarter, overall trading activity during the year remained anaemic. Market turnover reflected shifting and often fragile sentiment driven by a combination of global and domestic factors, including US tariff imposition on Bangladeshi products, international geopolitical conflicts, stress in the banking sector and ongoing local political developments.

Among the top companies by market capitalisation, BRAC Bank stood out as a rare outperformer. Its share price rose 45% in 2025, supported by robust earnings growth of nearly 39% during the January to September period. Marico Bangladesh also delivered a positive return of 17%, alongside earnings growth of 14.3%, making it one of the few large-cap stocks to reward investors.

In contrast, several heavyweight stocks saw sharp price declines despite mixed earnings outcomes. Grameenphone's share price fell over 20% during the year, while its earnings declined by more than 23%. British American Tobacco Bangladesh suffered one of the steepest corrections, with its share price dropping 32.4% amid a 45.5% fall in earnings. Berger Paints also underperformed, with its share price sliding nearly 20% alongside a sharp earnings contraction.

Square Pharmaceuticals posted earnings growth of 18.4%, yet its share price still declined by 8.8%, underscoring the market's reluctance to reward fundamentals. Robi Axiata delivered strong earnings growth of 54.5% but saw its share price remain almost flat. Walton, United Power and other large caps also failed to attract sustained buying interest.

The report noted that while some macroeconomic indicators such as interest rates, inflation and the foreign exchange market have shown signs of improvement, concerns over banking sector reforms and rising non-performing loans continued to dampen investor confidence. As a result, the benchmark DSEX index fell 6.7% in 2025, while overall equity market capitalisation declined by 9.9%.

Sector-wise, ceramics and general insurance outperformed the benchmark, while non-bank financial institutions were the worst performers. Among large-cap sectors, textiles, fuel and power, and pharmaceuticals fared better than the market, whereas telecommunications, food and allied industries and engineering lagged behind.

Precious metals rebounded on Tuesday, after falling sharply in the previous session, as the market refocused on geopolitical and economic risks, reigniting gold's rally to cap its best year since 1979.

Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $4,364.70 per ounce at 2:07 pm ET (1907 GMT).

On Monday, it recorded its biggest daily percentage loss since October 21 as profit-taking pushed it down from Friday's record high of $4,549.71. US gold futures settled 1 percent higher at $4,386.30.

"We saw very extreme volatility yesterday where we saw strong action in Asian trading to the upside and then rather substantial profit-taking... but things have stabilised somewhat today, the trade remains generally favourable," said Peter Grant, vice-president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, has surged 66 percent in 2025 — its steepest climb since 1979 — propelled by a perfect storm of interest rate easing, geopolitical flashpoints, robust central bank purchases and flows into bullion-backed ETFs.

The US Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the US economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session.

The Fed next meets on January 27-28, with investors currently expecting rates to be left unchanged.

"The market remains sceptical on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and the broader measures of geopolitical risk remain elevated," supporting prices, Grant said.

Russia accused Ukraine of trying to attack President Vladimir Putin's residence and vowed retaliation. Ukraine said the claim was baseless.

Silver rose 7.3 percent to $77.48 per ounce. It hit an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday, before logging its biggest daily drop since August 2020. Silver has soared 168 percent this year, driven by its inclusion on the US critical minerals list, supply deficits and growing industrial and investor appetite.

Platinum rose 5.1 percent to $2,216.45 per ounce. It also touched a record high on Monday, of $2,478.50, before logging its biggest-ever one-day drop.

Bangladesh joins the world in hailing 2026 with cautious expectations of a socioeconomic resurgence, as 2025 draws to a close amid historic political developments and unresolved economic strains.

The passing of former prime minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia cast a long shadow over the year, yet the announcement of election schedule and the homecoming of BNP's acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, reshape the country's political landscape.

Juxtaposed together, these events have made the upcoming February polls a single-most consequential moment for Bangladesh's democratic trajectory and economic outlook.

Political analysts and economists agree the credibility and acceptance of the first post-uprising election will determine whether the country enters a period of stability or slides back into uncertainty.

"The biggest and most historic event will be the February election, and everything depends on it," says Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist, who had previously served the World Bank.

"If it is accepted by all participating parties, the democratic journey will begin. If not, the opportunity could be lost."

A smooth political transition, the analysts argue, would provide long-awaited certainty to investors and restore confidence in state institutions wrecked by years of political polarisation done by the "fascist" Awami League-led government, toppled through student-mass uprising.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Bangladesh steps in 2026 with a mixed balance sheet, offering, perhaps, no unmixed blessing.

On the external front, conditions have improved to some extent.

Foreign-exchange reserves have stabilised, remittance inflows reached record levels and pressure on the balance of payments has eased, offering a stronger platform for the next elected government.

"I know the external sector -- for example, reserves and balance of payments -- is now in a favourable position, and this is a good foundation for the next government," Dr Hussain notes.

However, the internal economy remains under strain.

Inflation has stayed stubbornly high, eroding purchasing power, growth slowed while private investment has failed to recover meaningfully.

Employment generation has also remained sluggish, particularly in urban areas, adding to social pressures.

"There has been a drought in investment in the country for several years now," Dr Hussain goes on. "It may pick up once a credible, elected democratic government assumes power."

Economists also warn that without renewed investor confidence and policy predictability, growth could remain stymied below potential despite external stability.

The next administration will also inherit a stack of reform proposals prepared by many commissions set up in recent years by the interim government.

Analysts say translating those reports into action will be a critical test of political will.

"The next government will get a series of commission reports," Dr Hussain mentions. "It should prioritise these to strengthen governance and institutions."

Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, echoes the emphasis on political legitimacy, saying that the election would shape the country's reform prospects.

"There is a huge opportunity, and everything depends on the election," he says. "If it fails, the opportunity will be missed."

He mentions that tensions in the financial sector, particularly in banking, have eased to some extent over the past year, but deep-rooted vulnerabilities remain.

"Banks, non-banks and the insurance sector still need much stronger governance," Dr Masrur recommends, citing weak supervision, rising non-performing loans and persistent confidence gaps.

From the business community, expectations are similarly tied to political stability.

Abul Kasem Khan, chairman of BUILD -- Business Initiative Leading Development -- says businesses are hoping for a credible election followed by decisive reforms.

"We hope the next elected government will take reform steps and expedite business activities."

He stresses the need for faster public services through digital platforms, along with reforms in licensing and taxation to make administration more business-friendly.

Logistics and port inefficiencies remain major bottlenecks, he points out, despite reform initiatives taken by the interim government.

"There is scope for much more reform to make domestic trade efficient," Mr Khan told The Financial Express, urging the next government to fast-track the long-delayed Bay Terminal project in Chattogram, which he argues is a major opportunity for the economy.

Bangladesh's capital market is standing at a critical crossroads, with a rare alignment of improving macroeconomic indicators and emerging political clarity offering a narrow but meaningful opportunity for recovery.

However, without deep and coordinated reforms, this window could quickly close, leaving the market trapped in its prolonged cycle of low liquidity, weak participation and depressed valuations, according to Vanguard Asset Management Limited.

In a research report titled "Current Situation of Bangladesh Economy and Recommendation for Capital Market Development", the asset management company, which manages three mutual funds in Bangladesh, said recent macroeconomic stabilisation, easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and signs of political direction have created the conditions for a potential market revival. Yet, it cautioned that sentiment alone will not be enough. Restoring investor confidence will require structural changes and a rebuilding of institutional credibility.

Vanguard Asset noted that despite improving macro fundamentals, the capital market remained under severe stress throughout 2025. In late December, the benchmark DSEX hovered between 4,880 and 4,960 points, roughly 11% below its September peak and close to the five-year low recorded earlier in the year. Valuations stayed compressed at around 9 to 10% earnings, significantly below the three-year average of 14.4%, reflecting heightened risk aversion rather than a deterioration in corporate earnings.

The underperformance becomes starker when viewed against regional peers. Pakistan's KSE-100 index surged to record highs following IMF-backed reforms, Sri Lanka's ASPI gained 42% year-on-year after debt restructuring, and India's Sensex delivered high single-digit returns. Bangladesh's lagging performance, the report said, underscores country-specific challenges such as political uncertainty, liquidity constraints and entrenched structural weaknesses.

Market depth indicators paint an equally sobering picture. Market capitalisation fell to Tk3.49 lakh crore in January 2025, while foreign ownership in multinational stocks declined sharply. Early in FY2025–26, net foreign outflows reached $66 million, eroding confidence further. Although there were brief inflows following recent political developments, Vanguard Asset said sustained foreign participation remains elusive without meaningful reform.

The report identified deep-rooted structural deficiencies as the core reason behind the market's prolonged weakness. No new initial public offerings have been listed in the past 18 months, largely due to approval timelines stretching beyond two years, far longer than in comparable regional markets. This, combined with limited tax incentives and weak disclosure standards, has left only 25 to 30 investable companies out of nearly 400 listed firms, severely restricting diversification opportunities for both local and foreign investors.

Bank financing continues to dominate corporate funding, as loans can be approved within months and require relatively limited disclosure. In contrast, capital market fundraising has almost collapsed. High interest rates and attractive returns on fixed-income instruments have diverted liquidity away from equities, while the mutual fund industry remains underdeveloped, accounting for less than 3% of total market capitalisation. Since September 2024, nearly 80,000 investors have exited the market, reinforcing a self-perpetuating cycle of low liquidity, weak participation and depressed valuations.

To break this cycle, Vanguard Asset laid out a comprehensive reform roadmap. It argued that stronger tax incentives, such as widening the corporate tax differential between listed and non-listed companies and offering tax relief on dividends, could encourage more firms to go public and redirect household savings toward equities. It also highlighted the need to accelerate IPO approvals, improve disclosure and strengthen corporate governance to rebuild trust among investors.

Regulatory efficiency and institutional strength were identified as equally critical. According to the report, enhancing the capacity and credibility of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission, improving stock exchange governance and restoring the stabilising role of state-owned institutions could significantly improve market integrity. Developing the debt market, expanding the institutional investor base and channelling long-term funds through mutual funds were also seen as essential steps toward reducing volatility and improving depth.

If these reforms are implemented consistently, Vanguard Asset believes Bangladesh's capital market could see a valuation re-rating toward historical norms, delivering meaningful upside and attracting renewed foreign interest. Coupled with political stabilisation under an elected government, the market has the potential to transition from a regional underperformer into an emerging opportunity, reclaiming its role as a key engine of long-term economic growth.

Midland Bank PLC has promoted Md Nazmul Huda Sarkar to the post of deputy managing director (DMD), effective from January 1, 2026.

Prior to this promotion, Sarkar was serving the bank as senior executive vice-president and chief technology officer, according to a press release.

He served at Mutual Trust Bank PLC and played a key role in the bank's transition to a new digital platform.

He also worked in Japan with Match.com as a senior application engineer.

He previously worked at Fujitsu, Nissan Motor, IDLC Finance PLC, and National Life Insurance.

Sarkar obtained his honours and master's degrees in electronics and computer science from the Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet.

Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC has promoted Md Jafar Sadeq to the post of deputy managing director (DMD).

Prior to this promotion, Sadeq was serving the bank as senior executive vice-president and chief financial officer.

He began his professional career in 2002 with Hoda Vasi Chowdhury (HVC), Chartered Accountants.

He commenced his banking career with ONE Bank PLC, according to a press release. He later joined Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC in 2006 in the financial administration division.

Sadeq holds a master's degree in accounting from Jagannath University.

The year 2025 is set to be remembered as one of the most difficult periods for Bangladesh's capital market, marked by persistent volatility, weak investor participation and steady erosion of confidence.

Despite a series of regulatory initiatives and reform-oriented moves, the market remained under pressure throughout the year, weighed down by political uncertainty, economic challenges and a prolonged absence of fresh listings, according to the market analysts.

The benchmark DSEX index ended the year at 4,865 points, shedding 351 points or 6.73% compared to the previous year. The blue-chip DS30 index also declined sharply, losing 86 points or 4.44% to settle at 1,853.

Market activity remained subdued, with average daily turnover falling 18% year-on-year to Tk521 crore, reflecting investors' reluctance to deploy fresh funds in an uncertain environment.

The overall size of the market relative to the economy also weakened. The market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio dropped to 12.21%, underscoring the shrinking role of equities in the broader financial system.

Valuations, however, became more attractive on paper, with the market price-to-earnings ratio edging down to 8.59, although low valuations failed to lure investors back in meaningful numbers.

Market movements during the year reflected sharp swings driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. The DSEX reached its highest point at 5,636 on 7 September, while the lowest level of the year was recorded at 4,615 on 28 May.

Turnover also fluctuated widely, peaking at Tk1,442 crore on 4 June but dropping to a low of Tk224 crore on 7 September, highlighting the fragile and inconsistent nature of investor participation.

One of the clearest indicators of the year's stress was the steady exit of retail investors. Around 66,500 beneficiary owner accounts were emptied of shareholdings during 2025, leaving the number of BO accounts with shares at just over 12.05 lakh.

Market insiders said this trend reflects not only losses suffered by small investors but also a broader sense of fatigue and distrust built up over years of market instability.

'Deeply troubled year for market'

Minhaz Mannan Emon, shareholder director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange and managing director of BLI Securities Limited, described 2025 as an unfortunate and deeply troubled year for the market.

He told The Business Standard that many investors left after suffering losses amid a prolonged bearish trend and persistently low turnover.

According to him, most market intermediaries also became largely inactive due to the absence of initial public offerings, uncertainty surrounding the national election and a challenging economic backdrop.

He said the year was largely dominated by the formation of task forces and focus groups, as well as punitive actions taken by the reconstituted Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) under the interim government.

While these measures were intended to clean up the market and restore discipline, they failed to generate any immediate positive reflection in prices or trading activity.

However, he expressed hope that these steps could produce better outcomes in the coming year, particularly if the election is held on time and political clarity returns.

"Investors are waiting for the next elected government," he said, adding that a turnaround remains possible if confidence is restored.

Factors shaping 2025 market

A combination of factors kept the market under pressure throughout the year. Uncertainty over the upcoming national election weighed heavily, discouraging both local and foreign investors from taking long-term positions.

Broader economic uncertainty, a deterioration in law and order and weak private investment further eroded sentiment. Tighter margin loan rules and bank mergers also made traders more cautious, market insiders said.

Regulatory actions significantly shaped market behaviour. The BSEC took punitive steps against several high-profile investors accused of wrongdoing, including banning former chairman Shibli Rubayat Ul Islam, Salman F Rahman, vice-chairman of Beximco and former adviser to the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, from the capital market.

Heavy fines were imposed on some large investors for alleged manipulation. While many welcomed the move as overdue accountability, others said the abrupt actions heightened short-term uncertainty and froze trading activity.

Confidence was also hit by internal challenges at the regulator. Reports of operational chaos and delays in finalising key regulations left investors uncertain about policy direction.

The absence of any new IPOs throughout the year further narrowed investment options, leaving the market reliant on secondary trading of existing stocks.

At the same time, 2025 laid the groundwork for reform. The regulator introduced new margin loan and mutual fund rules, drafted updated IPO regulations and cut the annual BO account maintenance fee to Tk150, a reduction of Tk300.

Task forces and focus groups were formed to recommend structural reforms, while initiatives were launched to facilitate listings by state-owned enterprises, multinational companies and leading private firms.

'Reform most significant development'

Moniruzzaman, managing director and chief executive officer of Prime Bank Securities, said that regulatory reform was the most significant development for the capital market in 2025.

He noted that holding influential individuals accountable through punitive measures marked a major shift in regulatory approach. He also highlighted the unprecedented engagement of private sector representatives in reform committees, calling it a first in the history of Bangladesh's capital market.

According to him, based on committee recommendations, the BSEC finalised margin loan and mutual fund rules, while IPO regulations are in the pipeline awaiting final approval.

However, he cautioned that regulatory changes often take time to be absorbed in Bangladesh, as market participants are not always comfortable adapting to new frameworks. "It takes time," he said, expressing optimism that investors may start to see tangible benefits in 2026.

Precious metals pulled back on Monday, with silver trading lower after breaching $80 per ounce earlier in the day and gold easing from near record highs, as investors booked profits and easing geopolitical tensions cooled safe-haven demand.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,512.74 per ounce, as of 0242 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on Friday. US gold futures for February delivery lost 0.4% to $4,536.40 per ounce.

Spot silver lost 1.3% to $78.12 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 earlier in the session.

"A combination of profit-taking and seemingly productive talks between Trump and Zelensky regarding a potential peace deal have put gold, silver on the back foot," said KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were "getting a lot closer, maybe very close" to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

Silver has gained 181% year-to-date, outshining gold, propelled by its designation as a critical US mineral, supply constraints, and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand.

Bullion has also staged a stellar rally in 2025, climbing 72% so far and shattering multiple record highs.

Gold has been helped by a cocktail of factors, including bets of further US rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, robust demand from central banks as a move away from US securities and the dollar, and rising holdings in exchange-traded funds.

Waterer said $5,000 looked to be a viable target for gold next year provided that the next Federal Reserve chairman added a more dovish lean to Fed policy.

"Rate cuts and a continuation of robust industrial appetite paired with supply shortages could have silver primed for a run towards $100 in 2026," Waterer said.

Traders still expect two US interest rate cuts next year. Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Spot platinum fell 0.4% at $2,441.20 per ounce, after rising to an all-time high of $2,478.50 earlier in the day, while palladium lost 8% to $1,771.99 per ounce.

Amid mounting financial strain due to a volatile capital market and poor investment choices, the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), a state-owned investment bank, has taken another hit, with investments worth around Tk140 crore in five banks wiped out following their merger.

ICB alone had investments of around Tk120 crore in shares of the five publicly listed banks, with the highest exposure – about Tk80 crore – in EXIM Bank, while its consolidated investment, including that of its subsidiaries, stood at around Tk140 crore, according to sources.

Following the decision to merge the five banks – First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Social Islami Bank, EXIM Bank, and Union Bank – the Bangladesh Bank has reduced their paid-up capital to zero under the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025.

As a result, the value of shares of the publicly listed banks has fallen to zero, and ICB's investments in these banks – along with those of other shareholders – have been entirely wiped out.

A senior ICB official told TBS, "Due to the poor condition of the capital market, ICB has already been facing financial strain. On top of that, it has suffered an additional loss of Tk140 crore following the merger of five banks. As the paid-up capital of these banks has been declared zero after the merger, the value of their shares has effectively become zero."

He added, "According to ICB board decisions, there was an opportunity to sell the shares even at a loss, but officials did not sell the shares of those banks. As a result of this loss, a decision has been taken to issue show-cause notices to the officials in the last board of directors meeting held two weeks ago."

Speaking on the board's decision, another official said, "Matters related to investment in or withdrawal of investment from any company fall under the purview of the portfolio management committee, and such decisions are taken collectively."

"There is no scope for any individual official to take these decisions unilaterally. Moreover, as market prices declined extremely rapidly during the relevant period, the value of many shares fell significantly even before the portfolio management committee could fully assess the situation, he said"

"Therefore, the losses incurred by ICB due to not selling the shares should be evaluated in light of the overall context," he added.

Bleeding at ICB

Once a highly profitable institution, the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) incurred a historic loss of Tk1,213.86 crore in fiscal year 2024-25 – the first such loss in its history.

Owing to the substantial losses, the government institution has decided not to pay any dividends to its shareholders for the first time since its establishment in 1976.

The heavy loss resulted from higher provisioning against fixed deposit receipts (FDRs) stuck at weak non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), erosion of its investment portfolio amid a volatile capital market over the past year, and high-cost bank borrowings used for capital market investments.

Despite mounting pressures from high provisioning and interest expenses on loans taken from several government banks for capital market investments, ICB's operating income – its core business segment – declined sharply due to market volatility, as a substantial portion of its investments was wiped out when prices fell far below cost.

According to its annual report for FY25, its operating income year-on-year decline by 21% to Tk713 crore in FY25, which was Tk908.16 crore in the previous fiscal year.

It's all the major income sources – dividend income, capital gain, and fees, commission and service charges – witnessed a decline in FY25 compared to the previous fiscal year.

It earned Tk357.27 crore as dividend, while capital gain Tk206.71 crore and Tk148.64 crore from fees, commission, and service charges, which was Tk384 crore, Tk363.61 crore and Tk157 crore in the previous year respectively.

Also, it had paid Tk941 crore as interest on deposit and borrowing – with the highest paid was Tk758 crore interest on term deposits.

Previously, Niranjan Chandra Debnath, managing director of ICB, attributed the losses primarily to an increase in provisioning against investments, erosion in the portfolio due to a lack of activity in the volatile capital market, and higher interest expenses on bank borrowings.

The investment banker has Tk920 crore invested in 10 NBFIs and two banks as fixed deposit receipts (FDRs), which have been stuck for years as these institutions struggle to stay afloat.

Al-Haj Textile Mills Limited has surprised the market by posting a sharp turnaround in its financial performance in FY24, reporting its highest-ever profit and announcing a record dividend, despite having remained loss-making for much of the year.

The company's audited financial statements show that the profit surge was driven primarily by a one-off accounting recognition linked to the resolution of a long-running legal dispute with Agrani Bank, rather than a strong operational recovery.

According to the audited results for FY24, Al-Haj Textile recorded a net profit of Tk22.45 crore, compared to a loss in the previous year. Earnings per share rose to Tk10.07, a significant reversal from a loss per share of Tk0.78 in FY23.

The company's net asset value per share jumped by 119% to Tk18.52, reflecting the impact of the recognised income. However, the financial statements also show that net operating cash flow per share remained negative at Tk2.58, indicating continued pressure on cash generation from core operations.

The scale of the turnaround appears particularly striking given that the company had reported a net loss of Tk7.56 crore for the nine months ended 31 March 2024. This underscores that the bulk of the profit was booked in the final quarter of the fiscal year following changes in accounting treatment related to a disputed fixed deposit receipt with Agrani Bank.

Shuva Ray, acting company secretary of Al-Haj Textile, told The Business Standard that the board approved the recognition of Tk43.95 crore received from Agrani Bank as income in the FY24 income statement, based on the auditor's opinion.

Previously, this amount had been shown as a liability due to ongoing legal proceedings.

"As per the auditor's guidance, the board approved booking the FDR amount as income instead of keeping it as a liability. That is why the net profit increased significantly," he said.

Company disclosures show that Al-Haj Textile had been involved in a prolonged legal battle with Agrani Bank over the recovery of the FDR amount. The dispute was ultimately resolved in the company's favour when the Supreme Court vacated the case on 9 November 2021.

Although the court order allowed the company to recover Tk43.95 crore, the bank did not transfer the full amount and instead filed a default loan case against the company and its chairman and managing director in the Artha Rin Adalat. As a result, the company continued to treat the received amount as a liability in its books.

In its statement, Al-Haj Textile explained that legal advisers had certified that further proceedings of the Money Loan case were stayed by court order, meaning any interest charged on the loan during the stay period would be illegal.

The company also cited uncertainty over the final settlement amount and the connection of the contempt petition with loan repayment as reasons why the amount had previously been shown as a liability under international accounting standards. With the stay order having been vacated and the board revisiting the issue, the company ultimately recognised the amount as income in FY24.

Alongside the strong headline profit, the board declared the highest dividend in the company's history, recommending a 5% cash dividend and a 35% stock dividend for FY24. This surpasses the previous record of a 25% stock dividend declared in 2013. The company did not declare any dividend in FY23.

The stock dividend remains subject to approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission. The record date has been set for 15 January, while the annual general meeting is scheduled for 7 February.

A company insider said Al-Haj Textile had failed to finalise its financial statements and declare dividends on time in recent years due to internal conflicts among directors and sponsors over control of the board. Those disputes led to court proceedings and delayed regulatory compliance. The conflicts were eventually resolved through discussions and alternative dispute resolution mechanisms.

In November 2024, the company informed the stock exchanges that sponsor-family directors had reached a settlement, paving the way for board restructuring. Following the resolution, a shareholder holding more than 5% equity was appointed as a director, and regulator-appointed independent directors were withdrawn.

Despite the upbeat earnings announcement, the stock closed 2.12% lower at Tk143.10 on Monday, taking the company's market capitalisation to around Tk319 crore.