The United States could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi does not meet Washington's demand to curb purchases of Russian oil, President Donald Trump said on Sunday, escalating pressure on the South Asian country as trade talks remain inconclusive.

"[Prime Minister Narendra] Modi is a good guy. He knew I was not happy, and it was important to make me happy," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

"They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly," Trump said in response to a question on India's Russian oil purchases.

India's commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump's comments follow months of trade negotiations after the US doubled import tariffs on Indian goods to 50% last year as punishment for its heavy buying of Russian oil.

Indian markets reacted on Monday, with the information technology stock index falling about 2.5% to its lowest in more than a month, as investors worried that strained trade relations could further delay a US-India trade deal.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally travelling with him, said US sanctions on Russian oil companies and higher tariffs on India had helped curb Indian oil imports.

Graham is backing legislation to impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries such as India that continue to buy Russian oil.

"If you are buying cheap Russian oil, [you] keep Putin's war machine going," he said, adding that "we are trying to give the President ability to make that a hard choice by tariffs."

Trump's actions were the main reasons India was now buying "substantially less Russian oil," Graham said.

Trade experts warn, however, that New Delhi's cautious approach risks weakening its position.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative, said Indian exports already face a 50% US tariff, with 25% linked to purchases of Russian crude.

While Indian refiners have cut imports after sanctions, he said, buying has not stopped entirely, leaving India in a "strategic grey zone."

"Ambiguity no longer works," Srivastava said, urging India to clearly state its stance on Russian oil. He warned that even a complete halt may not end US pressure, which could shift to other trade demands, and that higher tariffs risk deeper export losses.

Separately, India struck a cautious diplomatic stance after the United States captured Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, urging dialogue without explicitly naming Washington.

Despite steep tariffs, India's exports to the US leapt in November, though shipments fell more than 20% between May and November 2025. As New Delhi seeks to clinch a trade deal with Washington, the government has asked refiners for weekly disclosures of Russian and US oil purchases to address US concerns.

Modi has spoken to Trump at least three times since the tariffs were imposed. India's commerce secretary met US trade officials last month, but talks remain unresolved.

The dollar started the first full trading week of 2026 with a broad rally, climbing to a 3-1/2-week peak versus the euro and hitting two-week highs against the yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.

Currency traders largely looked past the United States' weekend raid in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, focusing instead on a slate of US macroeconomic indicators due this week that could be crucial in steering Federal Reserve policy.

The dollar advanced 0.3 percent to $1.1682 per euro , after earlier touching its strongest level since December 10 at $1.1672.

It climbed as high as 157.295 yen , 0.7951 Swiss franc and C$1.37771 , all of which were the highest levels since December 22.

"I dare say the FX complex is not much of a reflection of risks stemming from Venezuela, but more about what the US data is going to tell us about the Fed's policy path," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

Currency traders largely looked past the United States' weekend raid in Venezuela, focusing instead on a slate of US macroeconomic indicators due this week

A recent run of resilient US data has markets contemplating a potentially slower pace of interest rate cuts this year, he said.

The data rollout this week begins with ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and culminates with the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Traders currently expect two US rate cuts this year, according to LSEG calculations based on futures.

Investors are also awaiting US President Donald Trump's choice for the next Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May. Trump has said he will announce his pick this month, and has said Powell's successor will be "someone who believes in lower interest rates, by a lot."

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will continue to raise rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. It is a view he has reiterated several times in recent months, including after December's as-expected decision to raise rates to a three-decade high.

Oil prices fell on Monday after a US military operation seized Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, whose country has the world's biggest proven crude reserves.

Increased volumes of Venezuelan oil entering the market would add to oversupply concerns and put further pressure on oil prices, which have fallen in recent months.

In morning trade in Asia, Brent Crude was down 0.21 percent at $60.62 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate was off 0.35 percent at $57.12, both off earlier lows.

US forces attacked Caracas in the early hours of Saturday, bombing military targets and spiriting away Maduro and his wife to face federal narcotrafficking charges in New York.

US President Donald Trump has said that the United States will now "run" Venezuela and send US companies to fix its badly dilapidated oil infrastructure.

After years of under-investment and sanctions, Venezuela currently pumps around one million barrels per day, down from around 3.5 mb/d in 1999.

But analysts say that alongside other major questions about Venezuela's future, substantially lifting its oil production will not be easy or quick.

"Any recovery in production would require substantial investment given the crumbling infrastructure resulting from years of mismanagement and underinvestment," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP.

Investing today also holds little appeal: oil prices are weighed down by a supply glut and fell in 2025 despite significant growth headwinds like Trump's tariff war and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Gold prices climbed Monday along with other precious metals, after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, escalating geopolitical tensions and fueling safe-haven demand.

As of 0742 GMT, spot gold rose 2.2 percent to $4,424.17 per ounce, a one-week high. US gold futures for February delivery gained 2.4 percent to $4,434.20.

"The kidnapping of a foreign head of state naturally leads to high degrees of instability, and in this environment, gold and silver are viewed as a solid hedge against uncertainty," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst.

On Saturday, the US captured Maduro in an attack that was Washington's most controversial intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 37 years ago.

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has taken over as interim leader and said that Maduro remains president.

Geopolitical tensions, combined with interest rate cuts, robust central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds contributed to bullion's 64 percent gains last year, its biggest annual gain since 1979.

It hit a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26, 2025.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said on Saturday that further rate cuts could be some way off after an active campaign of easing last year.

Her comments come as investors still expect at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, investors are focused on non-farm payroll data, which is due Friday, for more cues into potential Fed rate cuts, Waterer added.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during geopolitical or economic uncertainties.

Spot silver added 3.9 percent to $75.50 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on December 29. The metal ended its best ever year on record 147 percent higher.

Silver was propelled to fresh highs by its designation as a critical US mineral last year and on supply constraints in the face of rising industrial and investment demand.

Spot platinum rose 3.9 percent to $2,226.24 per ounce after touching an all-time high of $2,478.50 last Monday. It gained more than 5 percent in early Asia hours to a one-week high.

The Dhaka stock market slipped back into negative territory today (5 January) as investors moved to lock in gains following three consecutive sessions of advances, pushing the benchmark index lower despite selective buying in a few sectors.

Market participants said the mild correction was largely expected after the recent rally, which encouraged short-term investors to realise profits. The cautious mood prevailed through most of the session, limiting fresh buying interest and weighing on overall turnover.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), fell by 10 points, or 0.20%, to close at 4,954, snapping its three-day winning streak. The blue-chip DS30 index also ended marginally lower, shedding one point to settle at 1,886.

Market breadth tilted towards decliners, with 189 stocks closing lower against 143 gainers, while 57 issues ended unchanged. Trading activity eased compared to the previous session, as turnover dropped by 10% to Tk485 crore.

Brokers said the decline in turnover reflected a more cautious stance among investors following the recent rally, with many choosing to wait for clearer signals before taking fresh positions.

According to market insiders, selling pressure was primarily driven by profit taking in stocks that had seen sharp gains in recent sessions. Despite the overall decline, buying interest was visible in select counters, keeping the fall in the benchmark index relatively contained.

Stocks of Orion Infusion dominated the turnover chart, followed by Uttara Bank, Malek Spinning, Central Insurance and City Bank. These shares continued to attract active trading as investors repositioned their portfolios amid shifting market sentiment.

Sector-wise performance remained mixed. According to BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Limited, most large-cap sectors posted negative returns during the session.

Non-bank financial institutions and banking stocks recorded the steepest losses, each declining by 0.83%, as investors pared exposure to financials after recent gains. Engineering shares fell by 0.33%, while telecommunication, fuel and power stocks also ended slightly lower.

On the positive side, pharmaceutical stocks outperformed the broader market, gaining 0.71%, supported by selective buying in fundamentally strong companies. Food and allied stocks also managed a modest gain of 0.11%, offering some cushion to the broader index.

Among individual stocks, Pragati Life Insurance emerged as the top gainer, jumping 8.40%, followed by Familytex BD and Prime Finance, both of which rose more than 8%. Active Fine Chemical and Saiham Textile also posted notable gains as investors showed interest in select mid-cap and small-cap issues.

On the losing side, Alif Industries hit the circuit breaker, shedding 10%, while Beach Hatchery, S Alam Cold Rolled Steels, Kattali Textile and BD Welding Electrode suffered sharp declines amid selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange presented a mixed trend. Its benchmark CSCX index rose by 19 points to close at 8,535, while the CASPI index gained a similar 19 points to reach 13,839. However, trading activity at the port city bourse remained muted, with turnover plunging 68% to Tk8.67 crore.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has introduced the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, 2025, significantly tightening regulations on initial public offerings (IPOs) to ensure greater transparency, discipline and long-term stability in the capital market.

Under the new regulations, up to 30% of IPO proceeds can be used for debt repayment or investment, subject to certain conditions. In the case of debt repayment, the loan must be used for a company's project, business, machinery, renovation, or expansion, and an auditor's report must confirm the proper use of funds.

Furthermore, loans being repaid cannot be classified or rescheduled, meaning they cannot be listed as overdue or deferred due to any repayment issues. Companies must also submit a banker's certificate proving that the loans being repaid are neither classified nor rescheduled.

These provisions are much stricter compared to the previous 2015 rules. Earlier, up to one-third of IPO funds could be used for debt repayment or working capital, and there were no conditions regarding project linkage or loan classification.

Market experts believe that the new rules will make the use of IPO funds more transparent and responsible, increasing investor confidence. Additionally, this is expected to enhance long-term market stability and allow companies to focus on project development and expansion.

BSEC's move is seen as a necessary reform to ensure discipline and integrity in the capital market, providing a safer environment for investors. Local merchant bank UCB Investment has presented the law from multiple perspectives, calling the new rules a landmark change.

According to UCB Investment, the new regulations restructure IPO price determination, share allocation, eligibility, lock-in, and the role of institutional investors. The main goal of the rules is to emphasise a company's actual business capability, financial foundation, and future prospects rather than just paperwork. This will reduce the tendency of weakly structured companies to list on the market merely by maintaining documents.

For the first time, the new rules allow IPOs to be launched at a premium under the fixed-price method, subject to strict eligibility criteria. Companies must have at least three years of commercial production, positive net profits and cash flow in the last two years, and a specified long-term credit rating.

The most significant change is in the book-building process. From now on, indicative prices of book-building IPOs must be determined using at least four internationally recognised valuation methods, of which two must be absolute and two relative. Opinions from at least 40 institutional investors must be collected, including 10 portfolio managers, stock dealers, and asset managers each.

The most discussed change for retail investors is the removal of price discounts in book-building IPOs. Now, institutional, retail, and non-resident investors must all purchase shares at the same cut-off price. The BSEC states that previous discount mechanisms caused unjustified price shifts in the market, disrupting market normalcy in the long term.

Changes have also been made to the share allocation process. Retail and non-resident investors will again receive shares through a lottery system, reducing disappointment and increasing investor participation.

There are also changes regarding IPO size and capital. Companies must have a minimum paid-up capital of Tk30 crore before the IPO and Tk50 crore after the IPO. Generally, at least 10% of post-IPO paid-up capital must be offered to the public.

A separate framework has been introduced for greenfield or new project-based companies. Entrepreneurs and sponsors must retain at least 75% of post-IPO paid-up capital, and shares cannot be sold within two years if the company does not generate profit.

The role and authority of stock exchanges have been significantly enhanced. Exchanges will act as gatekeepers, verifying draft and red herring prospectuses, inspecting factories if necessary, and collecting opinions from institutional investors. Bidding for book-building IPOs cannot start without proven recommendations.

A lock-in period for institutional investors has also been introduced. In book-building IPOs, 50% of allocated shares will be locked for 90 days, 25% for 120 days, and the remaining 25% for 180 days.

From an investor perspective, the new rules may reduce the number of IPOs in the short term and increase costs. However, in the long term, market transparency, quality, and investor confidence are expected to improve.

Once implemented, the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, 2025 are expected to usher Bangladesh's IPO market into a new era of transparency, discipline, and stability.

The stock market extended its recovery today (4 January), led by a strong rally in banking shares that lifted the benchmark index and pushed turnover above the Tk500 crore mark for the first time in 14 trading sessions.

Renewed buying interest in heavyweight bank stocks helped sustain the market's upward momentum, even as several other sectors showed mixed performance, according to the market insiders.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange's benchmark DSEX gained 54 points, or 1.11%, to close at 4,965, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Over the past three days, the index has added a total of 104 points, reflecting improving sentiment among investors. The blue-chip DS30 index also advanced, rising 18 points or nearly 1% to settle at 1,887.

Turnover surged sharply, climbing 46% from the previous session to Tk537 crore, as trading activity intensified across the market. This was the first time daily turnover crossed the Tk500 crore threshold in three weeks, signalling a tentative return of liquidity.

Despite the higher trading volume and rising indices, total market capitalization edged down slightly by Tk144 crore, indicating selective buying rather than a broad-based rally.

Banking stocks were the clear drivers of the session. Of the 36 banks listed on the DSE, five remain suspended from trading due to their merger into a new bank. Among the remaining 31 banks, all recorded price gains except United Commercial Bank, whose share price remained unchanged.

Several bank stocks posted near double-digit gains, including Islami Bank, AB Bank, Rupali Bank and NRB Bank, while Pubali Bank and Southeast Bank also attracted strong buying interest.

Financial institutions and services also posted solid gains, reflecting investor preference for large-cap and fundamentally significant sectors. In contrast, travel, jute and information technology stocks came under pressure, dragging down their respective sector indices.

According to EBL Securities, the capital market carried forward its positive momentum from the previous session, buoyed by New Year optimism and expectations of improved clarity on the political front.

The brokerage said optimistic investors repositioned their portfolios towards heavyweight banking stocks, anticipating a moderation in prevailing uncertainties. Strong accumulation in large-cap bank shares provided steady support to the market throughout the session, helping indices maintain their upward trajectory.

Sector-wise turnover data also highlighted the dominance of banking stocks, which accounted for over 23% of total turnover. Pharmaceuticals and textiles followed, contributing nearly 14% and 12% respectively, underscoring selective sectoral interest rather than broad-based participation.

Orion Infusion, City Bank, Uttara Bank, Saiham Cotton and Anwar Galvanizing emerged as the most actively traded stocks of the day.

However, not all stocks shared in the rally. Several recently downgraded Z-category companies faced sharp corrections, with Gemini Sea Food, Alif Industries, Beach Hatchery, Fu Wang Food and Best Holding each losing close to 10% of their value, reflecting continued investor aversion to high-risk stocks.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange mirrored the positive trend seen in Dhaka. The CSCX index rose 75 points to close at 8,515, while the CASPI index jumped 127 points to end the session at 13,819. Turnover on the port city bourse stood at Tk26.90 crore.

Bangladesh's economic growth is not sustainable as long as the massive volume of non-performing loans (NPLs) remains on bank balance sheets, which fuels inflation and stifles investment, economists said at a policy discussion.

The discussion, titled "Monthly Macroeconomic Insights," was held in the capital today (4 January) and was organised by the Policy Research Institute (PRI) in partnership with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) of the Australian government.

Participants included Zaidi Sattar, chairman of PRI, Nasiruddin Ahmed, former chairman of NBR, Ashraf Ahmed, former president of DCCI, Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI, and Khurshid Alam, executive director of PRI.

NPL crisis and macroeconomic instability

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the PRI, was categorical about the threat posed by NPLs. He warned that if the estimated Tk6.4 lakh crore in NPLs remains on the balance sheets, the economy will be trapped in a "four bad scenario: high inflation, high interest rate, low investment, and low growth."

Macroeconomic stability has been largely restored after poor management of the external sector since 2022, but inflation remains a major concern.
Zaidi Sattar | Chairman, PRI

He added, "The quantum of NPLs currently on the balance sheet means Bangladesh cannot articulate any kind of growth strategy. If Tk6.4 lakh crore remains there, it will keep interest rates high and it will keep inflation high because the government will repeatedly have to print money, leading to investment stagnation and slower growth."

Hidden debt

Ashikur said that the true extent of the NPL problem was previously obscured by accounting practices.

He noted that the NPL ratio for private commercial banks, which was around 7% in the March 2024 quarter, has now surged to 33%. This sharp increase, he explained, was not an organic growth but the result of hidden NPLs being exposed.

"This was hidden. It was concealed through 'accounting magic' and 'accounting tricks,' which are now being revealed through the asset quality review and the impact of strict classification issues," Ashikur said.

He added that the five banks recently merged by Bangladesh Bank collectively hold Tk1.4 lakh crore in NPLs alone, which must now be managed.

High borrowing costs, policy uncertainty, and energy supply concerns continue to restrain business expansion, keeping many firms in a "wait-and-see mode.
Kamran T Rahman | President, MCCI

To manage this crisis, Ashikur suggested a combination of measures: offloading some NPLs to an Asset Management Company (with valuation to be decided by the Bangladesh Bank), restructuring some loans, and writing off a portion of the debt.

Inflation and slow growth remain concerns

Zaidi Sattar acknowledged that macroeconomic stability had been largely restored after poor management of the external sector since 2022, particularly concerning exchange rate policy and reserve management.

The massive volume of non-performing loans currently on the balance sheet means Bangladesh cannot articulate any kind of growth strategy.
Ashikur Rahman | Principal economist, PRI

However, he stressed that inflation remains the "only remaining problem," still hovering at 8.3%. "While inflation has stopped rising and is now slowly declining, it remains a major concern." He noted that the external sector is now stable, and the next goal is achieving a sustained overall surplus.

Kamran T Rahman highlighted the trade-offs of the stabilisation efforts. He observed that growth has slowed, investment is weak, and business confidence remains cautious. He noted that high borrowing costs, policy uncertainty, and energy supply concerns continue to restrain business expansion, keeping many firms in a "wait-and-see mode."

Developing a corporate bond market

Ashikur Rahman also warned that reducing NPLs alone would not guarantee financial stability, stressing the fundamental fragility caused by banks using short-term deposits to fund long-term loans.

He called for developing a deep corporate bond market, noting that Bangladesh had raised barely half a billion dollars through corporate bonds, compared to India, which finances around $600 billion through them.

The PRI principal economist concluded that placing the full burden of investment financing on banks without a bond market would inevitably increase banking sector fragility.

Cenbank's stance on exchange rate

Zaidi Sattar lauded Bangladesh Bank's commitment to exchange rate flexibility through buying and selling dollars, calling the managed float approach a "monumental achievement" in the country's monetary and economic policy history.

He noted that exchange rate depreciation tends to raise imports and boost exports over time, with clear trade-offs involved in its management.

Bangladesh's export earnings have declined for five consecutive months, weighed down by subdued demand in the United States and intensifying competition in the traditional European market as China and India move to expand their market share.

According to fresh data released today (4 January) by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), exports in December fell 14.25% year-on-year to $3.89 billion, down from $4.63 billion in the same month last year. November exports had already dropped by 5.54%.

Overall export earnings during the July-December period declined 2.19% to just under $24 billion.

The apparel sector, which accounts for about 85% of Bangladesh's total export receipts, also posted a sharp contraction, with shipments in December down by more than 14%. Industry insiders said small and medium-sized factories have been hit hardest, as a steep fall in orders continues to squeeze margins and capacity utilisation.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Babu, head of the country's main organisation of readymade garment manufacturers and exporters, told TBS that demand in the US market has declined somewhat due to the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs. At the same time, China and India are carrying out aggressive marketing in the European market for the same reason. As a result, Bangladesh's exports of readymade garments have fallen slightly. In addition, some factories have shut down in the country due to certain government policy decisions, which has also contributed to the decline in exports.

He said to sustain export earnings in the future, the government must stand by businesspeople. Incentives are being reduced in Bangladesh, while incentives are being increased in India. At the same time, changes to labour laws are raising costs for Bangladeshi businesses. Therefore, initiatives are needed to reduce business costs in order to enhance the competitiveness of Bangladeshi entrepreneurs.

According to EPB data, export earnings from readymade garments amounted to $3.23 billion in December. In 2024, export earnings from this sector stood at $3.77 billion. Exports of both knitwear and woven garments declined, although earnings from garment exports in December increased compared to November.

During the July-December period of the current fiscal year, export earnings from readymade garments totalled $19.36 billion. In contrast, earnings from this sector during July–December of the previous fiscal year were $19.89 billion.

The major markets for Bangladesh's readymade garments are the United States and the countries of the European Union. The United States has imposed an additional 20% reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi products, meaning Bangladeshi goods now face a total duty of 35% to enter the US market.

The Trump administration has imposed reciprocal tariffs on other countries as well. As a result, product prices in the US market have increased, leading American consumers to buy fewer goods. Although at the initial stage of imposing these reciprocal tariffs, the government and sector stakeholders had expressed hope that Bangladesh's exports to the US would increase.

On the other hand, the Trump administration has imposed higher reciprocal tariffs on India and China than on Bangladesh. Consequently, exporters from these two economically stronger countries are offering various discounts to boost exports to EU countries, prompting buyers in those markets to purchase more products from China and India.

CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun told TBS that foreign exchange reserves have been increasing gradually in recent times. "If export earnings decline, an imbalance will be created in the balance of payments. Foreign currency will again have to be drawn from reserves to pay import bills and service external debt, which is not positive for the economy."

She said that the bulk of the country's export earnings comes from readymade garments, and it is necessary to review the reasons behind the decline in export earnings. If exports fall due to US tariffs, emphasis should be placed on exploring new markets and exporting new products.

According to EPB data, exports of frozen products amounted to $255 million over the past six months, which is 3.72% higher than the same period last year. However, compared to December of the previous year, export earnings from this sector fell by 21.20% in December. Earnings from exports of fresh fish, shrimp and crab increased.

Similarly, export earnings from agricultural products also declined. Over the past six months, Bangladesh exported agricultural products worth $534 million to various countries, which is 10.30% lower than the same period last year. Compared to December of the previous year, export earnings from this sector fell by 27.56% in December. According to EPB data, exports of vegetables, tobacco, fruits, spices, dried foods and oilseeds increased.

Exports of plastic products also declined compared to the previous year. In addition, exports of specialised textiles, various types of footwear, ceramic products, glass and glassware fell.

Exports of leather and leather goods increased over the past six months compared to the first six months of the previous fiscal year. According to the EPB report, export earnings from leather and leather goods amounted to $609 million over the past six months, up from $577 million in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. However, compared to December of the previous year, exports in this sector declined by 12.36% in December.

Likewise, export earnings from jute and jute products increased, particularly exports of jute yarn and jute bags, although exports of raw jute declined. Earnings also rose from exports of home textiles such as bed sheets, kitchen textiles and tents. Export earnings increased as well from engineering products such as iron, copper wire, stainless steel ware, electrical products and bicycles.

Regarding the decline in export earnings, BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said, "As you know, for the past few months our export growth has been on a negative trajectory. The new tariff rates imposed by the United States have turned the global export market upside down. This has also affected the US market itself, where our exports are taking a significant hit.

"In addition, countries such as India and China that are unable to export to the US market because of the additional US tariffs are now rushing to export to the European Union market. As a result, they are securing garment export orders by cutting prices. In this situation, Bangladeshi exporters are unable to obtain orders for similar products."

Chattogram Port, the backbone of Bangladesh's foreign trade, delivered its strongest operational performance on record in 2025 even as it remained under intense public and political scrutiny over controversial tariffs and the leasing of facilities to foreign operators.

The year was defined by deep fault lines between the Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) and key stakeholders – businesses, labour groups, and political actors – with disputes escalating despite a historic operational output that underscored the contradiction of conflict on the surface and capacity expansion underneath.

Quadruple container charges trigger first flashpoint

The port entered the year in controversy after the CPA decided to impose a fourfold storage charge on containers kept beyond the free time.

Imports and exports surged in January and February 2025, pushing yard occupancy beyond capacity by mid-February. Alarmed by worsening congestion, the CPA issued formal notices to importers and C&F agents and began enforcing the quadruple charge from 10 March.

Business leaders accepted that the measure reduced congestion but warned it would raise logistics costs and hurt the wider economy. The issue quickly became the first major point of confrontation between port users and the authority.

Following sustained pressure, the CPA temporarily suspended the fourfold charge for one month from 26 August and continued the suspension until 30 December. On 30 December, the authority again announced a suspension, this time for two months.

41% tariff hike deepens business backlash

Before tensions over container storage eased, the CPA announced an average 41% increase in tariffs across multiple port services.

Declared on 15 September, the revised rates were applied to all vessels arriving after midnight on 14 October. The authority argued the hike was necessary to support infrastructure upgrades and service improvements.

Port users strongly disagreed. Businesses held coordination meetings, while the Port Users' Forum staged protest programmes, calling the increase excessive and poorly timed. The dispute eventually reached the courts, widening the rift between the CPA and the private sector.

Foreign operators and labour unrest

As businesses protested tariffs, another controversy gathered momentum: the appointment of foreign operators to run key terminals.

The issue intensified in June when the contract of Saif Powertec, the operator of the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT), expired. Workers opposed handing over the country's largest container terminal to a foreign company, fearing job losses and loss of national control.

Despite opposition, the government pressed ahead. After Saif Powertec's contract ended on 30 June, the NCT was temporarily taken over by Chittagong Dry Dock Limited under the Bangladesh Navy.

At the same time, the CPA moved forward with plans to involve foreign firms at other facilities, setting the stage for a wider movement to "save" the port.

'Save Chattogram Port' movement

The leasing of port facilities to foreign companies became one of the most defining issues of 2025.

The process had begun under the now-ousted Awami League government, which initiated plans to lease major installations, including the NCT and the proposed Laldia Container Terminal. In June 2024, the Patenga Container Terminal was handed over to Saudi Arabia-based Red Sea Gateway Terminal International.

After the Awami League government fell on 5 August 2024 amid a student-led mass uprising, the interim government assumed office and continued the policy. On 17 November 2025, the CPA signed a 33-year agreement with Denmark-based APM Terminals, a subsidiary of AP Moller-Maersk, to operate the proposed Laldia Container Terminal. On the same day, the government signed a 22-year concession agreement with Switzerland-based Medlog to operate the Pangaon Inland Container Terminal on the banks of the Buriganga.

Earlier discussions with UAE-based DP World to operate the NCT, initiated under the previous government, were also carried forward by the interim administration.

These decisions triggered widespread protests. Left-leaning political parties accused the government of handing over national assets to foreign entities without transparency. They raised concerns over secrecy in the contracts and potential risks to national security.

The movement echoed past resistance. In 1998, a plan by the Awami League government to establish a private port at the Karnaphuli River mouth with US-based SSA Ports was scrapped following leftist protests and a High Court writ filed by Communist Party of Bangladesh leader Mohammad Shah Alam and others.

In 2025, opposition intensified. Leftist groups organised a Dhaka-Chattogram road march in June. Trade Union Centre, Jatiyatabadi Sramik Dal, Port Workers' Union and other labour organisations joined the protests. The strongest mobilisation came under the banner of Sramik-Karmachari Oikya Parishad, which even enforced port blockade programmes. Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam also issued statements opposing the leasing deals.

Port officials rejected the allegations, saying workers were being misled with fears of job losses. They dismissed national security concerns as unfounded, arguing that foreign operators function under strict government oversight.

Despite months of agitation, the government remained firm, making the "Save Chattogram Port" movement a central political and economic storyline of the year.

Record-breaking performance

While disputes dominated headlines, Chattogram Port delivered unprecedented operational results.

According to CPA data, the port handled 3.409 million TEUs of containers in 2025, the highest in its history. Cargo handling also rose by 11.43% year-on-year.

As Bangladesh's principal seaport, Chattogram handles around 92% of the country's general import-export cargo and nearly 98% of containerised trade. Port officials say the record figures reflect ongoing modernisation efforts and underline the urgency of expanding capacity.

Economist professor MM Akash today (4 January) laid out six reasons for opposing the leasing of Chattogram Port facilities to foreign companies, arguing that the proposed move risks national interest and should be resisted through a broad-based national movement.

He made the remarks at a discussion organised by the Chattogram district unit of the Sramik-Karmachari Oikya Parishad (SKOP) at the Chattogram Press Club.

Prof Akash said the first concern is strategic and geopolitical. "Chattogram Port is a key national asset. Decisions over its control cannot be treated as routine commercial arrangements."

He questioned why facilities are being handed over to foreign operators despite the country having domestic capacity to manage the port. "If we have the capability, why surrender control to outsiders?" he asked.

The economist pointed to the track record of DP World, the company reportedly being considered for the lease, saying its performance in other countries has raised serious questions.

The fourth issue, he said, is the lack of alignment with Bangladesh's overall cargo and port management plans. Leasing out facilities for 40 years without a comprehensive, long-term strategy that considers the development of other ports could weaken Chattogram Port instead of strengthening it.

Fifth, prof Akash warned about compliance risks. "If the operator violates the contract midway, which is not uncommon, do we really have the legal and institutional leverage to hold them accountable?"

The sixth and final objection relates to governance and legitimacy.

He questioned why a 40-year contract involving a national asset would be signed without discussion in an elected parliament and why an unelected interim government would rush such a decision. "These issues together make it our duty to build a national movement to protect Chattogram Port," he added.

At the same event, economist Prof Anu Muhammad said domestic and foreign vested interests have long been conspiring to lease out the port. He traced the roots of the debate back to 1997, when an initiative was taken to lease the port to SS Company for 198 years.

"At that time, the US ambassador, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and several local consultancy firms all claimed leasing the port would benefit the country," he said. "But later in 1997, the High Court proved that SS Company was a fraudulent entity."

Anu Muhammad alleged that similar arguments are now being recycled. He said Laldiar Char and Pangaon have already been leased through what he described as secret agreements, while the process to lease the New Mooring Container Terminal is underway.

"Alarmingly, the same group that promoted false information in the past is once again claiming these initiatives are good for the country," he said, adding that there is no reason to trust their assurances when their claims were previously proven wrong.

He also criticised the repetition of old justifications used by the Ministry of Shipping, including arguments that fresh tenders are unnecessary because international agencies have already vetted the deals. "This shows how a global vested-interest network operates to exploit the resources of third-world countries like Bangladesh," he said.

Anu Muhammad further argued that after the announcement of the election schedule, the government has no moral authority to take strategic decisions or sign long-term contracts involving critical national assets.

The meeting was chaired by Kazi Sheikh Nurullah Bahar, general secretary of the Chattogram divisional unit of the Jatiyatabadi Sramik Dal. Other speakers included former CPB president Mohammad Shah Alam, TUIC Chattogram district president Tapan Dutta, Sramik Dal divisional president AM Nazim Uddin, and labour leaders Khorshedul Alam, Rabiul Haque Shimul, Al Qaderi Joy, Zahid Uddin Shahin, Ibrahim Khokon and Taslim Hossain Selim.

The fertiliser industry is struggling to maintain production targets due to acute gas shortages although the government promised a smooth supply when it increased LNG prices from Tk16 to Tk29.25 per cubic metre, raising concerns about domestic supply ahead of the critical Boro planting season.

The Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), which oversees the country's urea plants, said it is not receiving sufficient gas to operate factories at full capacity.

In a recent letter, the corporation requested the finance and energy ministries, Petrobangla, and other relevant authorities to ensure a minimum daily supply of 197 million cubic feet of gas (mmcfd) to keep at least four of its five factories operational during the upcoming Boro season.

Without this, the BCIC warned, urea production will fall short of demand, forcing the government to increase imports and raising the overall subsidy burden on the agricultural sector.

From December to March, during the peak Boro period, domestic urea demand is around 15 lakh tonnes. However, current gas allocations would allow annual production of only 9.24-11 lakh tonnes, well below the target.

Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan told The Business Standard that supply at BCIC's requested level is currently unfeasible. He added that any shortfall in domestic production will be met through imports.

The adviser noted that, like the fertiliser sector, industries and power plants also face high gas demand. Bangladesh can import 115 LNG cargoes annually, 109 of which have already been brought in this year, leaving no scope to increase imports. Moreover, the national pipeline can deliver a maximum of 1,000 mmcfd.

"Domestic gas demand is around 4,000 mmcfd, but imports can supply only 2,800-2,900 mmcfd. As a result, industries, power plants, and fertiliser factories are all receiving less than required," he said.

However, he assured that food security will not be affected, as urea imports will ensure demand is met.

Target against capacity

BCIC's letter to the secretaries of finance, energy, industry, and agriculture noted that while the national production target for urea is 18 lakh tonnes this year, the current gas allocation permits only two factories, including the Ghorashal plant, to operate, limiting annual output to around 11 lakh tonnes.

The BCIC said prolonged closures for more than half the year have led to the deterioration of valuable machinery. Production capacity of the five plants, originally 31 lakh tonnes annually, has fallen to 20 lakh tonnes due to inactivity. Actual output under the current gas shortage is only 8-11 lakh tonnes per year.
Intense cold, dense fog threaten Boro seedbeds and potato crops

Current capacity at 1.1m tonnes against 1.8m demand

BCIC Chairman Md Fazlur Rahman's letter a high-level committee, comprising officials from finance, energy, agriculture, industry, and BCIC, was formed to assess how imported LNG can be used to keep domestic urea factories operational despite gas shortages.

The committee recommended that four out of five factories be kept running continuously to achieve the 18 lakh-tonne target, requiring a daily supply of 180.81 mmcfd of gas.

Adequate gas through increased LNG imports, the committee said, would boost urea production, save foreign currency, and create employment.

To support the additional LNG import costs, the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) raised the gas price for fertiliser plants to Tk29.25 per cubic metre on 23 November.

The BCIC chairman's letter of 23 December said keeping four plants operational would require 197 mmcfd daily, but BERC has authorised only 140 mmcfd.

Domestic gas demand is around 4,000 mmcfd, but imports can supply only 2,800-2,900 mmcfd. As a result, industries, power plants, and fertiliser factories are all receiving less than required.
Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan

Under this allocation, only two factories can operate, producing around 11 lakh tonnes, or if the Ghorashal plant is closed, three other factories can operate with a combined output of 9.24 lakh tonnes.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, urea demand from December to March is approximately 14.5-15 lakh tonnes: 3.18 lakh tonnes in December, 4.23 in January, 4.43 in February, and 2.47 in March.

Factories at low capacity

BCIC's letter further highlighted that gas shortages have disrupted urea production since 2007–08, as plants routinely face supply suspensions from April to November.

Frequent closures have increased per-tonne production costs and caused corrosion and damage to machinery, reducing overall capacity.

The five BCIC plants originally had a combined annual capacity of 31 lakh tonnes against national demand of 26 lakh tonnes. Due to prolonged gas shortages, capacity has dropped to 20 lakh tonnes, with actual output ranging from 8-11 lakh tonnes. The government supplements domestic supply with imports.

The newly established Ghorashal Palash Fertiliser Company, designed to be fuel-efficient and meet foreign debt obligations, cannot be kept idle. Maintaining its 9.24 lakh-tonne capacity requires at least 72 mmcfd daily. The remaining supply should be allocated to Shahjalal, Jamuna, and Chattogram urea factories to meet production targets, according to BCIC.
Fertiliser crunch hits Rabi farming in Shariatpur, farmers fear production loss

Gas supply drops to 2,632mmcfd

On 3 January, Petrobangla reported supplying 2,632mmcfd nationwide, of which 930mmcfd came from imported LNG, 1,005mmcfd from Chevron and Tullow, and the remainder from Bapex, Sylhet Gas Field, and Bangladesh Gas Fields Company. Of this, 756 mmcfd went to power generation, 1,439mmcfd to other sectors, leaving fertiliser plants under-supplied.

The five BCIC-controlled factories – Jamuna, Ghorashal Palash, Ashuganj Fertiliser and Chemical, Chattogram Urea, and Shahjalal - require 266 mmcfd daily, but only 180 mmcfd was supplied on 3 January, creating a deficit of 86 mmcfd. Ashuganj has long faced supply interruptions, while Jamuna and Chattogram occasionally experience cuts.

BCIC urges higher trade-gap support

BCIC has also called for an increase in the "trade gap" support. Urea prices are government-regulated and set below production cost, meaning factories operate at a loss.

While the government covers the gap for imported fertiliser, domestic production losses remain largely uncompensated. Reduced gas supply, plant closures, and insufficient trade-gap support have led to liquidity shortages, preventing proper maintenance and replacement of critical equipment.

In 2022, the gas price for fertiliser plants was raised from Tk4.45 to Tk16 per cubic metre, creating arrears of around Tk2,000 crore. To mitigate losses, the agriculture ministry agreed to purchase urea at Tk38,000 per tonne, while the finance ministry covered Tk13,000 per tonne as trade-gap support.

In light of the latest gas price increase to Tk29.25, BCIC has requested that the trade-gap amount also be adjusted to reflect higher costs.

The government and LPG industry stakeholders today (4 January) agreed on a package of temporary measures to ease the ongoing LPG supply crunch, including VAT relief on imports, cheaper loans and easier access to bank letters of credit.

The proposals, however, will require final approval following reviews by the Bangladesh Bank and the National Board of Revenue before they can be implemented, officials said after an emergency meeting.

The meeting agreed to formally request the NBR to temporarily reduce VAT at the bottling stage, while the central bank will be asked to consider extending green financing facilities to LPG operators at single-digit interest rates.

The energy ministry secretary will send official letters to the relevant authorities to pursue these proposals, according to participants familiar with the outcome of the meeting.

The government also decided to strengthen market monitoring through district administrations and consumer rights officials to prevent price manipulation and artificial shortages at the retail level.

Speaking after the meeting, Joint Secretary Monir Hossain Chowdhury said discussions with businesses confirmed that companies had not sold LPG above the prices set by the regulator. He said price manipulation had taken place mainly at the retail stage.

The meeting was held at the energy ministry with the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB), amid growing concern over supply shortages and sharp price hikes at the retail level.

Officials expressed concern over the uncontrolled rise in retail prices, stressing that essential goods such as fuel should not be sold arbitrarily, similar to the regulated pricing regime at petrol pumps.

Industry concerns

They noted that effective oversight of the LPG retail market remains weak, while the lack of visible enforcement by law enforcement agencies has worsened the situation.

LOAB President and Delta LPG Managing Director Amirul Haque said, "Global LPG markets were currently highly volatile, forcing Bangladesh to seek supplies from new sources, including Argentina."

He said operators had urged the government to fully liberalise LPG imports by removing quota-based or permit-related restrictions, a request officials said had already been addressed.

Amirul Haque also reiterated the industry's demand for temporary VAT withdrawal, noting that LPG receives no government subsidy, unlike LNG, making continued taxation an added burden on consumers.

He said no LOAB member or bottling plant had sold cylinders even one taka above BERC-fixed prices, despite difficult market conditions.

Industry representatives said that since 5 August, some large companies had been unable to import directly and were sourcing LPG from the local market to maintain supply.

LOAB Vice President and Energypac Managing Director Humayun Rashid said LPG industries globally receive easy-term financing, while Bangladeshi operators face interest rates of around 15 per cent.

He said LPG qualifies as a green fuel and should receive single-digit interest rates under green financing schemes, which would help reduce consumer prices.

Rashid also highlighted disparities in gas pricing, noting that some households enjoy cheaper piped gas while others rely on costlier LPG, calling for policy support to address the imbalance.

Other operators, including Meghna, Omera and JMEI, urged faster LC approvals and priority treatment from banks to avoid import delays.

Current LPG shortage

The current shortage was triggered by reduced imports by several companies and a seasonal spike in winter demand, according to market insiders.

Consumers across Dhaka and other regions have struggled to find LPG cylinders for nearly two weeks, with many retailers reportedly charging up to Tk2,000 for a cylinder officially priced at Tk1,253.

Market participants said LPG imports fell sharply in December, while global prices rose by at least $35 per tonne within a week, prompting companies to cut shipments.

However, industry leaders later told the meeting that November imports stood at 105,000 tonnes, rising to 127,000 tonnes in December, suggesting no logical basis for the supply disruption.

They alleged that some retailers created an artificial shortage in anticipation of a price revision by BERC, which raised the cylinder price to Tk1,306 on Sunday evening.

The energy ministry has requested the cabinet and home ministries to empower district and upazila administrations to conduct mobile courts against illegal practices.

LPG operators urge action against overcharging retailers

In a statement issued later in the day, LOAB said recent price hikes in the retail market have caused confusion and hardship for consumers, even as the government maintains there is no supply crisis or import restriction.

It said the issue was discussed at the meeting held at the energy ministry, where industry representatives pointed to rising global freight charges and higher LPG prices in Europe and other markets as key reasons behind the disruption in the supply chain.

Despite these pressures, LOAB said the overall stock of LPG in the country remains "satisfactory" and that the ministry assured there would be no ceiling imposed on LPG imports.

However, the association noted that some retailers have been selling LPG cylinders at prices higher than the officially announced rates, worsening public anxiety and putting an extra financial burden on consumers.

"Such practices are creating unnecessary hardship for consumers and confusion in the market," reads the statement.

LOAB urged the government to take immediate and effective action against retailers charging excessive prices in violation of existing regulations. It also called for stricter monitoring and enforcement to protect consumers and restore market discipline.

The association further requested the authorities to strengthen market supervision to ensure LPG is sold at fair, government-approved prices, stressing that transparency and stability are crucial for the sector.

The country's merchandise exports declined by nearly 5 percent last year, falling to $47.74 billion compared with the previous year, according to official data, as weak global demand for garments and other consumer goods weighed on shipments.

The calendar year closed against a turbulent global backdrop. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, Israeli attacks on Palestine and assaults on five other countries heightened tensions across the Middle East, disrupting trade routes and unsettling global supply chains.

These shocks rippled through international commerce and dampened consumer demand in key markets.

Global disruptions hit apparel exports particularly hard. Bangladesh was not alone. Other major exporters in the region, including China, India and Vietnam, also saw their clothing shipments slow as buyers cut orders and trimmed inventories.

Adding to the strain were reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States, which weighed on exports for much of 2025. Ahead of the finalisation of higher duties, local exporters rushed shipments from April through the first week of August to beat the deadline.

That front-loading came at a cost. Garments, which make up more than 84 percent of the country's export earnings, lost pace during the crucial season for Christmas deliveries in August, September and October.

Retailers in Western markets had already built up inventories, leading to a temporary lull in new orders. The new tariffs also pushed up prices for US consumers, curbing demand and adding further pressure on Bangladeshi exporters.

Even so, manufacturers expect shipments to recover once excess inventories are cleared and demand begins to normalise.

The Trump tariff measures also sharpened competition in major apparel markets. After facing higher duties in the United States, large exporters such as China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia and Turkey redirected similar products to other destinations, including the European Union, often at lower prices.

During the July-December period, garment exports fell by 2.63 percent to $19.36 billion compared with the same period in 2024. Knitwear exports dropped 3.22 percent to $10.48 billion, while woven garment shipments declined by 1.91 percent to $8.87 billion.

The slowdown gathered pace in December. That month, garment exports plunged by 14.23 percent to $3.14 billion. Knitwear shipments fell by 13.74 percent to $1.61 billion, while woven exports slid by 14.71 percent to $1.52 billion, according to data released yesterday by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

Despite the sharp overall decline in December, several non-RMG sectors recorded growth compared with November 2025.

Jute and jute goods, specialised textiles, home textiles, frozen and live fish, vegetables, chemical products, rubber, leather and bicycles all posted gains, pointing to progress in export diversification.

Among major destinations, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom remained the top three markets in December. Exports to these countries grew by 7.14 percent, 18.08 percent and 14.50 percent, respectively.

Shipments to emerging and strategic markets also expanded. Exports to the United Arab Emirates rose by 25.39 percent, Australia by 21.33 percent, and Canada by 9.13 percent. The EPB said the figures showed Bangladesh was gradually widening its global footprint.

In overall terms, merchandise exports in December fell by 14.25 percent year-on-year to $3.96 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Compared with November, however, exports edged up by 1.97 percent, offering a tentative sign of month-on-month recovery.

In its monthly report, the EPB said weakening global demand, US tariffs, intensifying competition, rising production costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty had created heavy external pressure on export performance.

Domestic challenges also played a role. Industry leaders cited volatile political conditions and limited access to bank financing as key constraints on exporters.

Amid the gloom, there were some brighter notes. Md Abul Hossain, chairman of the Bangladesh Jute Mills Association, said exports of jute and jute goods had risen over the past six months, driven by stronger shipments of value-added products.

Md Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said demand from the United States weakened as prices rose following the tariffs.

Exports to the European Union, he added, were hurt by lower-priced shipments from competitors such as China, India and Vietnam.

Bangladesh has made modest progress toward economic stabilisation, but it may take time for all indicators to stabilise, as many challenges remain, according to the private think-tank Policy Research Institute (PRI).

The progress is reflected in a stable exchange rate, a build-up of foreign reserves, and moderate improvements in inflation. However, PRI said fiscal and banking sector reforms have been limited. The adjustment has come with slow economic growth, stagnant investment, rising unemployment, and declining real wages.

"Economic policymaking in 2026 cannot assume that stability will return soon," said Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at PRI, during a keynote presentation at PRI's monthly macroeconomic insights event yesterday, jointly organised with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade at the PRI office.

He added that policy must embrace uncertainty and build strategies around it. "Policy frameworks must be flexible. Institutions must be capable of mobilising real-time responses. Decisions must be timely, credible, and anchored in preparedness," Rahman said.

Looking ahead to 2026, he said, "Perpetual instability -- both external and domestic -- is no longer an exception; it has become the new normal. Global geopolitical shocks, wars, trade disruptions, climate volatility, and shifting international economic dynamics will continue to test our resilience.

"At the same time, internal political uncertainty, institutional stress, and governance challenges will keep shaping macroeconomic management."

Rahman also likened the economy to a forest, saying, "In many ways, we must behave like a deer in a forest -- always alert, aware of our environment, attuned to early warning signals, and ready with a crisis-time economic playbook.

"What seems stable today can become chaotic tomorrow. Survival and progress in this new world will depend on vigilance, adaptability, discipline, and readiness to act decisively."

According to PRI, Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 3.4 percent in Q4 of FY25, mainly due to weaker performance in industry and services. Private consumption and government spending eased, while investment growth remained low at 1.8 percent due to high borrowing costs and political uncertainty.

Strong remittances and higher foreign reserves support macroeconomic stability and could boost consumption and investment as inflation eases. However, political instability and policy uncertainty ahead of elections remain major downside risks, PRI said.

Sustained recovery will depend on political stability, credible elections, and structural reforms to restore investor confidence and boost productivity, the think-tank added.

The external sector continues to improve. Between July and October FY26, Bangladesh's Balance of Payments showed a $1.1 billion surplus, mainly from a stronger financial account. Remittance inflows rose 20 percent during July-November of FY26.

"There has been some stability in foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate. However, the country's economic growth and investment have slowed," said Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

He added, "High inflation, uncontrolled non-performing loans in the banking sector, and a very low tax-to-GDP ratio remain key challenges for the economy."

Rahman also highlighted the importance of political stability, energy security, and policy certainty in restoring business confidence.

At the seminar, speeches were also delivered by PRI Executive Director Khurshid Alam and Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker, among others.

Prime Bank PLC has signed a $20 million term loan agreement with the Invest In Visions Microfinance Fund, a Germany-based impact investor.

Carlos De las Salas Vega, chief investment officer of the Invest In Visions Microfinance Fund, and Hassan O Rashid, chief executive officer of Prime Bank PLC, signed the agreement at a ceremony recently held in Frankfurt, Germany, according to a press release.

The funding will be strategically deployed by Prime Bank for on-lending to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across Bangladesh.

The initiative underscores Prime Bank's commitment to promoting financial inclusion and supporting economic growth by strengthening the country's MSME sector, widely regarded as the backbone of the economy.

Established in 1995, Prime Bank has a longstanding record of accomplishment of providing impact-driven banking services to corporate, MSME and retail customers through both conventional and Islamic banking modes.

Shams Abdullah Muhaimin, deputy managing director of the bank, was also present, along with other senior executives from both organisations.

The government has reversed its decision to cut interest rates on savings certificates, reinstating the current rates for the next six months.

The Internal Resources Division issued the notification today.

As a result, investors will continue to receive interest at the same rates that were applicable from July 1 to December 31, 2025, until June 30 this year.

On December 28, the government had issued a gazette notification announcing lower interest rates on all types of savings certificates for the January-June 2026 period.

After three consecutive cuts, gold prices in Bangladesh have increased for the first time this year, as the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) announced a fresh hike yesterday (4 January).

In a late-night notification, Bajus said the price of 22-carat gold has been raised by Tk2,216 per bhori (11.664 grams), setting the new rate at Tk2,24,940 per bhori, effective from today.

The association said the price adjustment was made in line with an increase in the local market price of pure gold (tejabi).

According to the revised rates, gold prices per bhori now stand at Tk2,24,940 for 22-carat, Tk2,14,734 for 21-carat, Tk1,84,058 for 18-carat, and Tk1,53,323 for traditional gold.

In addition to the selling price, buyers will have to pay a government-mandated 5% VAT and a minimum 6% making charge fixed by Bajus. Making charges may vary depending on the design and quality of the jewellery.

Bajus last adjusted gold prices on 1 January, when it cut the price of 22-carat gold by Tk1,458 per bhori to Tk2,22,724.

With the latest revision, gold prices have been adjusted twice so far this year — once increased and once reduced.

In 2025, Bajus revised gold prices a total of 93 times, raising prices on 64 occasions and cutting them 29 times.

Meanwhile, silver prices remain unchanged in the local market. The price of 22-carat silver stands at Tk5,540 per bhori, while 21-carat silver is selling at Tk5,307, 18-carat at Tk4,549, and traditional silver at Tk3,383 per bhori.

Bangladesh Bank purchased $187.5 million from commercial banks today (4 January) at a rate of Tk122.30 per dollar as part of its ongoing efforts to keep the exchange rate stable.

With the latest purchase, the central bank has bought a total of $3.32 billion so far in the current fiscal year.

Market insiders said the move is part of Bangladesh Bank's intervention strategy in the foreign exchange market, which began in July last year through auction-based dollar purchases. The initiative is aimed at maintaining balance under the market-based exchange rate regime.

Under this approach, when dollar supply exceeds demand, the central bank steps in to buy dollars to prevent the exchange rate from falling sharply. Conversely, when demand rises, it retains the option to sell dollars to ease pressure on the market.

Bankers noted that dollar demand has declined in recent months due to several factors. These include a reduction in the government's immediate foreign debt repayment obligations, slower business and investment activities, and a fall in imports of capital machinery, all of which have eased pressure on foreign currency demand.

Despite adequate dollar availability in the market, data suggest signs of stagnation in import activities. Private sector credit growth fell to a record low of 6.58% by the end of November last year, reflecting subdued import demand.

On the positive side, remittance inflows, a major source of foreign currency, have shown strong growth. Bangladesh recorded its highest-ever monthly remittance inflow of $3.29 billion in March 2025, driven largely by Eid-ul-Fitr-related transfers. This remains the country's all-time record.

The second-highest remittance inflow was recorded in December of the same year, amounting to $3.22 billion, further strengthening foreign exchange supply in the market.

Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years even if US oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that President Donald Trump promised just hours following Nicolás Maduro's capture by US forces.

The South American country may have the world's largest estimated oil reserves, but output has plummeted over the past decades amid mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign firms after Venezuela nationalized oil operations in the 2000s that included the assets of Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.

Any companies that might want to invest there would need to deal with security concerns, dilapidated infrastructure, questions about the legality of the US operation to snatch Maduro and the potential for long-term political instability, analysts told Reuters.

American firms won't return until they know for sure they will be paid and will have at least a minimal amount of security, said Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting. He also said the companies would not go back until sanctions against the country are removed.

Venezuela would also have to reform its laws to allow for larger investment by foreign oil companies.

Venezuela nationalized the industry in the 1970s, and in the 2000s ordered a forced migration to joint ventures controlled by its state oil company, PDVSA . Most companies negotiated exits and migrated, including Chevron, while a handful of others did not reach deals and filed for arbitration.

THERE IS A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG

"If Trump at all can produce a peaceful transition with little resistance, then in five to seven years there is a significant oil-production ramp up as infrastructure is repaired and investments get sorted out," Thomas O'Donnell, an energy and geopolitical strategist, told Reuters, adding that heavy crude produced in the country works well with US Gulf Coast refineries and can also be blended with lighter oil produced from fracking.

But that would depend on everything going right, and there's a lot that could go wrong.

"A botched political transition that has a feeling of US dominance can lead to years of resistance," O'Donnell said, noting armed groups of citizens and guerrilla groups that operate in the country.

Chevron would be positioned to benefit the most from any potential oil opening in Venezuela, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute in Houston. Other US oil companies would be paying close attention to political stability and would wait to see how the operational environment and contract framework unfolded, he added.

Venezuela - a founding member of Opec with Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia - produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, which at the time represented over 7 percent of global oil output. Production fell below 2 million bpd during the 2010s and averaged around 1.1 million bpd last year, or just 1 percent of global production.

CHEVRON IS THE ONLY US OIL MAJOR OPERATING IN VENEZUELA

Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela. Conoco has been seeking billions for the takeover of three oil projects nearly two decades ago, while Exxon was also involved in lengthy arbitration cases against Venezuela after it exited the country nearly two decades ago.

"The company that probably will be very interested in going back is Conoco, because they are owed more than $10 billion, and it's unlikely that they will get paid without going back into the country," Monaldi said.

Exxon could also return, but is not owed as much money, he added.

"ConocoPhillips is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," a company spokesperson said in emailed comments to Reuters.

Chevron, which exports around 150,000 bpd of crude from Venezuela to the US Gulf Coast, has had to carefully maneuver with the Trump administration in an effort to maintain its presence in the country over the past year. CEO Mike Wirth said in December that he had spoken with the Trump administration about what he said was the importance of maintaining an American presence in the country through multiple political cycles.

The oil firm has been in Venezuela for over 100 years and said on Saturday that it is focused on the safety and well-being of its employees, in addition to the integrity of its assets. "We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations," a Chevron spokesperson said in an emailed response to questions.

Exxon did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

Opec and allies met on Sunday and maintained the current oil output policy. The group has been increasing production since last year, stoking concerns of a global supply glut, but has agreed to pause oil output hikes for January, February and March.

Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at University of Houston, said recent events in Venezuela would have little impact on US prices for oil and gasoline for now, with much of the country's production going to Cuba and China at the moment.

He also said that history is full of recent examples of American excursions that didn't produce notable results for US companies.

"Trump now joins the history of US presidents who have overthrown regimes of oil-rich countries. Bush with Iraq. Obama with Libya. In those cases, the United States has received zero benefit from the oil. I'm afraid that history will repeat itself in Venezuela," Hirs said.

Oil tankers chartered by Chevron had been among the few to set sail from Venezuela over the past month, following Trump's December announcement of a " blockade

That's perhaps where one quick win could emerge, if Trump is able to restart the flow of Venezuelan crude into the US Gulf, potentially boosting refiners like Valero in the process. At the moment, it appears that just the opposite is happening.