I have long believed Bangladesh has realised only a fraction of its potential. After more than three decades working across industries and engaging with government processes, one conclusion is hard to escape: fragmented governance, siloed decision-making and weak coordination among institutions are holding us back.

In 1961, South Korea created the Economic Planning Board to bring planning, budgeting, industrialisation and economic analysis under one command -- the President's office. That same year, Singapore set up the Economic Development Board to align investors, infrastructure, skills and trade around a single industrial vision. These were not exercises in expanding bureaucracy. They were coordination authorities, economic nerve centres, that helped resource-constrained nations move with clarity and discipline.

Bangladesh does not need to copy these models. But it must learn from what worked.

Today, our economy is steered by powerful bodies: the National Board of Revenue, the Bangladesh Bank, Bida, the Securities and Exchange Commission, multiple ministries and scores of regulators, each with its own mandate and priorities. They rarely operate as one system with one shared vision. As a result, tax, investment, monetary, trade and industrial decisions are often taken in isolation and then collide in the real economy.

The costs are not theoretical. Take taxation in construction materials. The NBR may hesitate to withdraw VAT and taxes on cement used for brick making to protect short-term revenue targets. Yet lower taxes could make cement bricks competitive against environmentally harmful burnt bricks, improving public health and environmental outcomes. What appears to be a revenue decision is also an industrial, environmental and health policy choice.

Economic policy is inherently interconnected. Construction alone illustrates this clearly. It links roughly 3,600 industries, from steel to microfinance. A narrow decision on steel taxes should not be judged only by immediate revenue effects. Lower input taxes can raise activity across the entire ecosystem, creating jobs and downstream tax collections that may outweigh the initial loss.

Many countries have used real estate investment-friendly frameworks to generate powerful multiplier effects. Bangladesh should assess it.

If we are serious about reaching developed economy status by 2041, we need a permanent platform where these interconnections are understood and acted upon together. What the country needs is a National Financial Strategy Cell, placed directly under the Prime Minister's Office, to function as an economic nerve centre.

This should not become another administrative layer. It must be a lean, data-driven coordination mechanism that aligns fiscal, monetary, trade, investment and industrial policy so that decisions reinforce each other. Its role should be to stress-test major proposals for cross-sector impact, flag contradictions early and present integrated options at the highest level.

Such a body should be empowered to convene regulators and relevant ministries, with credible private sector participation. The aim is not to replace existing institutions but to connect them. Private sector input matters because policy frictions often surface first on factory floors, at ports, in banks and in markets, long before they appear in official reports.

The payoff would be tangible. First, greater coherence, allowing revenue goals to be balanced with growth, jobs, competitiveness and environmental outcomes. Second, smarter incentives that support export upgrading and productivity without ad hoc distortions. Third, faster and more coordinated responses to crises, whether currency volatility, banking stress, supply disruptions or emerging global opportunities. We can no longer afford fragmented governance. When a minor fee change of just Tk 180 per truck can reportedly halt operations at Chattogram port for days, the deeper signal to investors is not the fee itself but the absence of predictability, consultation and coordination.

A tougher, faster and more complex world is approaching, but so are greater opportunities. Bangladesh has the potential and the entrepreneurial energy to seize them. What it needs now is one table where the right institutions sit together, one compass to align decisions and one mechanism that turns good intentions into coherent action.

Bangladesh's economic success under the previous political regime rested on fragile foundations, with structural weaknesses masked by headline growth. These distortions fuelled a build-up of public debt and one of the world's highest non-performing loan ratios, estimated at 35.7 percent, reflecting deep abuse in the banking sector.

As confidence eroded, foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly 40 percent between end-2022 and mid-2024, while inflation rose to a 12-year high. An artificially low interest rate cap and aggressive monetary expansion by the Bangladesh Bank intensified price pressures, with weak data transparency obscuring the scale of deterioration and contributing to political upheaval.

The interim government has made progress in stabilising the macroeconomy. Foreign exchange reserves rebounded by more than 30 percent, supported by restrictive import policies and a recovery in remittance inflows following the shift to a market-driven exchange rate. Inflation has moderated, and initial steps have been taken to address the NPL crisis. Yet the recovery remains fragile, with GDP growth slowing to 3.69 percent in FY2025 amid weak business confidence, declining equity-related foreign direct investment and lingering political uncertainty.

Political clarity has therefore emerged as a decisive factor shaping the outlook. While uncertainty surrounding the transition to an elected government has weighed on investor sentiment, the return of Tarique Rahman after a prolonged exile has reduced electoral ambiguity. His emphasis on stability and national unity has improved expectations of policy continuity, supporting a more constructive medium-term outlook, with the IMF projecting growth to rebound to 4.9 percent in 2026.

Despite these stabilisation gains, Bangladesh's capital market continues to underperform. The DSEX remains near multi-year lows, valuations are deeply compressed and foreign participation has declined sharply, even as regional peers have rallied. This underperformance is structural, driven by a prolonged IPO drought, regulatory inefficiencies, the dominance of bank financing, elevated fixed-income yields and an underdeveloped institutional investor base. These weaknesses reinforce a cycle of low liquidity and weak participation.

Bangladesh now stands at a critical juncture. Macroeconomic stabilisation, improving reserves and emerging political clarity offer a narrow but meaningful window for capital market revival. Sustained recovery, however, will depend on a coordinated reform agenda that addresses structural bottlenecks, restores institutional credibility and realigns incentives towards long-term market development.

On the fiscal front, restoring listing incentives is essential. Expanding the corporate tax differential between listed and non-listed companies to 10 to 15 percentage points would reward transparency, while tax-free dividend income could redirect household savings towards equities.

Regulatory reforms are equally important. Streamlined, digitised financial reporting and a fast-tracked IPO process would help revive the listing pipeline, while stronger corporate governance and improved stock exchange oversight would enhance market integrity and investor protection.

Institutional strengthening remains central. Enhancing the effectiveness and accountability of the BSEC, alongside revitalising the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, would restore regulatory credibility and provide counter-cyclical market support. Progress also depends on stronger inter-agency coordination, improved financial literacy and a better balance between bank financing and capital markets through incentives for private listings and rationalised savings instrument yields.

Sustainable capital market growth ultimately depends on building a strong institutional investor base, particularly through the development of the mutual fund industry. Greater mutual fund participation would help reduce volatility by reinforcing disciplined, long-term investment practices. Yet the sector remains underdeveloped.

Achieving durable, fundamentals-driven growth will require targeted policy support, including higher tax rebates on mutual fund investments, limited tax exemptions on dividend income, larger IPO quotas and the removal of the 15 percent bank investment cap on mutual funds. If implemented consistently, these measures could reposition the Bangladesh capital market as a credible engine of long-term economic growth.

The writer is managing director and CEO of Vanguard Asset Management Limited

While digital platforms are creating unprecedented employment opportunities in Bangladesh, they are simultaneously giving rise to a new form of inequality, Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said today (6 January).

"Rising productivity and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence are shrinking traditional forms of employment, posing fresh challenges for the labour market," he said while addressing a seminar held at the Cirdap auditorium in the capital.

The seminar was moderated by Zillur Rahman, president of the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS).

At the programme, Debapriya presented an analysis of Bangladesh's digital economy and stressed the need for structural reforms in light of a proposed citizens' manifesto.

He pointed out that the gig economy had expanded even to marginal regions of the country. As an example, he cited around 1,500 freelancers in Thakurgaon who are selling illustrations in the global market despite having limited technological resources.

However, he identified the absence of an institutional framework as the sector's main constraint.

According to Debapriya, there are no clear Bangladesh Bank regulations to allow freelancers to receive payments smoothly, nor do they have access to basic financial services such as credit cards. This policy vacuum, he said, is preventing freelancers' earnings from being fully integrated into the formal economy.

The CPD distinguished fellow stressed that a major expansion of digital systems is now essential to curb corruption and improve efficiency. "The use of digital platforms for utility bill payments and stipend distribution has already reduced leakages and made it easier to identify irregularities," he said.

To make these gains sustainable, he proposed the creation of an integrated "National Data Centre".

He said the database should be managed by an autonomous oversight and accountability body, independent of the home ministry and the Election Commission.

"The database should bring together citizens' NID, TIN, BIN and information related to government services, including allowances and stipends," he added.

While welcoming some recent government initiatives, including the introduction of Starlink and the National Equipment Identity Register (NEIR) system to block unregistered mobile phones, Debapriya criticised the lack of consultation with stakeholders before taking such decisions.

He also expressed concern over the absence of transparency surrounding the proposed Cyber Security Act Ordinance 2025, warning that unclear provisions on personal data protection and safeguards against phone surveillance have raised public anxiety.

Misuse of AI

Debapriya further warned that social media and artificial intelligence could become major sources of chaos, division and disinformation in the run-up to the next national election.

He said neither the government nor the Election Commission appeared to be playing an effective role in curbing the spread of false information targeting election candidates.

"From the Election Commission, we are not seeing any effective initiative, capacity, or even goodwill to control these issues," he said.

"There is hate against women, propaganda against religious and ethnic minorities, and even where small steps have been taken from the highest levels of government, we have so far seen no initiative from the Election Commission or law enforcement agencies to make those measures effective," he added.

"Although the government has written to Meta, the absence of a local office in Bangladesh and language limitations make it very difficult to curb hate speech and politically motivated violence online," Debapriya said.

Concerns over law and order

Speaking at the event, CGS President Zillur Rahman said the country's current law and order situation was unfavourable for business, the economy, public safety, politics and democracy.

"The politics of polarisation and division that we are now patronising – I would say the state itself is patronising this – raises serious questions about how we will come out of this situation," he said.

"We often talk about tolerance and empathy, but Bangladesh is moving far away from those values. If we fail to address these crises, we may be able to hold an election, but there is real doubt about whether that will bring any meaningful relief."

Others who spoke at the seminar included former National Board of Revenue chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid; Dhaka University Banking and Insurance Department Professor Shahidul Islam Zahid; University of Asia Pacific School of Business Dean MA Baqui Khalily; Daffodil Group Chairman Sabur Khan; former Barvida president Abdul Haque; former Bangladesh Chamber of Industries president Shahedul Islam Helal; and former Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Asif Ibrahim.

According to them, although the digital economy in Bangladesh is growing rapidly, the sector still faces a range of challenges, including policy uncertainty, infrastructural limitations, high bandwidth costs, the digital divide, and a lack of accountability in the use of social media.

Facing bleak recovery prospects, the state-owned Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) has decided to initiate legal action against Padma Bank and 10 non-bank financial institutions to recover Tk920 crore locked in unpaid fixed deposit receipts (FDRs).

ICB, an investment bank mandated to support the capital market, had invested heavily in FDRs with the NBFIs and Padma Bank five to six years ago, seeking higher returns amid elevated interest rates. However, the investments have since turned sour as the institutions plunged into liquidity crises and defaulted on repayments, pushing ICB into deep financial distress.

Burden of bad investments

These non-performing FDR investments have now become a major burden for ICB, plunging the corporation deep into the red and resulting in its highest-ever loss in the last fiscal year due to mandatory provisions for bad investments.

Troubled Padma Bank and other NBFIs have been defaulting on the repayment of the FDRs despite repeated urges from ICB as they are also grappling with massive classified loans and liquidity crises.

A board member of ICB, seeking anonymity, told TBS, "In the last board meeting, we decided to initiate legal proceedings; in line with this, we decided to send legal notices to institutions."

This caution comes after the ICB absorbed a bitter experience, sustaining approximately Tk140 crore in losses from the merger of five banks after the Bangladesh Bank reduced their paid-up capital to zero, wiping out shareholder value. The possibility of merging weak NBFIs is also under discussion, causing the share prices of some listed NBFIs to fall below Tk1 per share.

Earlier, in its recovery efforts, the ICB sought intervention from the central bank, the regulator of banks and NBFIs. Last year, the state-owned institution also formed a special team and deployed additional staff to monitor and recover long-overdue FDRs.

Kazi Md Talha, chief executive officer of Padma Bank, which holds Tk154.02 crore in FDRs from ICB, told The Business Standard, "Due to a liquidity crisis, we are unable to repay large amounts owed to clients. At most, we are only able to pay clients between Tk5,000 and Tk30,000."

He added, "Every month, we receive letters from the ICB seeking repayment, but we cannot pay due to the liquidity crisis."

A managing director of an NBFI, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "We are helpless. Nothing exists in the institutions as huge funds were provided without proper documentation or collateral. We cannot recover the loans given to businesses – how can we repay the lenders?"

He added, "We, the existing management, are trying to recover the loans, but no one is paying heed to us."

ICB eyes legal actions

As the earlier measures failed to yield results, ICB has now moved to initiate legal proceedings against Padma Bank and the NBFIs.

In line with the legal proceedings, in the last board of directors' meeting held earlier in December, it was decided to serve legal notice to the institutions, which are failing to repay the FDRs to ICB.

An official of ICB's legal wing confirmed that they have already served legal notices to Padma Bank and the NBFIs.

The biggest defaulter

According to available data, International Leasing and Financial Services, which has been struggling with a high volume of classified loans, holds the highest amount of ICB's FDRs, totalling Tk191 crore.

According to its auditors' report, as of 31 December 2024, International Leasing's retained earnings stood at a negative Tk4,976.93 crore, while it posted a net loss of Tk865.34 crore in 2024 due to income reversals and provisions made against subsidiary loans and advances.

The company's liabilities increased by Tk895.52 crore as a result of unpaid expenses, accrued interest, and the said provisions to address the adverse financial situation.

Additionally, leases, loans, and advances stood at Tk4,139.33 crore as of 31 December 2024, of which Tk4,045 crore – representing 97.72% – were classified.

How FDRs hit ICB

Over the years, the FDRs remained due from the NBFIs and Padma Bank amid financial crisis in these institutions, but ICB showed the outstanding as receivable and could not keep provisioning against the funds.

The existing board of ICB, mostly reconstituted after the political changeover, decided to maintain provisioning against the non-recovery investment.

In FY25, ICB maintained a total provision of Tk791.26 crore. Of this amount, Tk586.41 crore was kept aside for other assets (mainly the defaulting FDRs), which became the key contributor to the Tk1,213.86 crore loss. In the previous fiscal year, ICB had reported a profit of Tk32.68 crore.

Power and Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan has ruled out any supply shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), saying recent disruptions in cylinder availability were driven by market manipulation rather than problems with imports or production.

Speaking after a meeting of the Advisers Council Committee on Government Purchase at the Secretariat today (6 January), Fouzul said the LPG market in Bangladesh was overwhelmingly controlled by private operators.

"About 98% of the LPG business in Bangladesh is controlled by the private sector. Government involvement is limited to around 2%, where propane and butane are imported and bottled," he said, reports BSS.

The adviser said the recent abnormal price hike and reports of temporary scarcity were the result of "collusion and deliberate manoeuvring" by wholesalers and retailers.

He alleged that some operators had withheld supplies in anticipation of higher prices after Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission's (BERC) latest adjustment, adding that LPG prices had risen by more than Tk50 per cylinder in recent weeks, which encouraged certain market players to take advantage of the situation.

He also rejected claims that the situation stemmed from any failure in supply. "From the import side, there is no reason for a crisis," Fouzul said, adding that LPG imports had increased compared to the previous month.

He said the government was closely monitoring the situation and would take all necessary measures to prevent further manipulation of the LPG market. He also noted that regulatory authority over LPG pricing lies primarily with BERC.

Fouzul further said a series of meetings had already taken place, involving the energy secretary and the BERC chairman, followed by discussions between the energy secretary and the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh.

To address the issue, the government has launched enforcement drives across the country. Mobile courts have been deployed at district level to prevent hoarding, forced shop closures and artificial supply disruptions.

Fouzul said the cabinet secretary had instructed district administrations to take firm action. The matter was also discussed at the most recent law and order committee meeting, with the participation of police and other law enforcement agencies.

Monitoring teams from the Energy Division have been sent to Chattogram, the main hub for LPG imports and bottling, while inspections are also under way in Dhaka and other parts of the country.

"We believe this was a temporary situation and expect prices and supply to gradually normalise," he said.

Fouzul also referred to potential challenges in global shipping, noting that sanctions on certain vessels had created complications in international transport. However, he said these issues had not affected LPG supplies in the current month.

"There is no immediate impact, but we are closely monitoring future risks," he said.

Bangladeshi nationals applying for US B1/B2 (business and tourist) visas will be required to submit a visa bond from 21 January 2026, after Bangladesh was included in a new pilot programme announced by the US Department of State.

According to information published on travel.state.gov, Bangladesh is among dozens of countries whose citizens have been identified as subject to visa bond requirements under a Temporary Final Rule (TFR) introduced in line with Section 221(g)(3) of the US Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

Under the programme, any Bangladeshi passport holder found otherwise eligible for a B1/B2 visa must post a bond of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. The bond amount will be determined by a consular officer at the time of the visa interview and is based on overstay risk assessments using B1/B2 overstay rates from the US Department of Homeland Security's Entry/Exit Overstay Report.

Applicants directed to post a bond will be required to submit the Department of Homeland Security's Form I-352 (Immigration Bond) and agree to the bond terms through the US Department of the Treasury's official online payment platform, pay.gov. The requirement applies regardless of where the visa application is submitted.

The State Department has cautioned applicants not to submit Form I-352 or pay any bond amount unless specifically instructed by a consular officer. Payments made without official direction will not be refunded, and the US government has warned that it bears no responsibility for money paid through third-party websites.

The department has also clarified that posting a bond does not guarantee visa issuance.

As an additional condition, visa holders who post a bond must enter and exit the United States only through designated ports of entry: Boston Logan International Airport (BOS), John F Kennedy International Airport (JFK), and Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD). Failure to comply may result in denied entry or an unrecorded departure.

The visa bond will be automatically cancelled and refunded if the Department of Homeland Security records that the traveller departs the US on or before the authorised stay period, does not travel to the US before the visa expires, or is denied admission at the port of entry.

However, the bond may be forfeited if authorities determine a breach of its conditions. Situations that could trigger a review include overstaying beyond the authorised period, failing to depart the US, or applying to adjust status from a non-immigrant visa, including seeking asylum.

Cases involving potential breaches will be referred by the Department of Homeland Security to US Citizenship and Immigration Services for determination.

Bangladesh joins several other countries, including Nigeria, Nepal, Venezuela, and Uganda, under the visa bond pilot programme, which aims to curb visa overstays and strengthen compliance with US immigration rules.

Bangladesh Bank has doubled the ceiling on home loans, allowing eligible banks to offer up to Tk4 crore to a single borrower for house purchases. Until now, the maximum limit for housing finance stood at Tk2 crore.

The new limit was announced in a circular issued today (6 January) by the central bank's Banking Regulation and Policy Department (BRPD) and sent to managing directors and chief executives of all banks.

According to the circular, banks with non-performing loans (NPLs) of up to 5% in their housing finance portfolios will be allowed to lend a maximum of Tk4 crore to an individual customer.

The loan-to-equity ratio will remain unchanged at 70:30. This means that if a flat costs Tk1 crore, a bank can provide a maximum home loan of Tk70 lakh, with the borrower covering the remaining 30% from their own funds.

Banks with housing finance NPLs above 5% but not exceeding 10% will be allowed to offer home loans of up to Tk3 crore. However, banks where NPLs in house finance exceed 10% will continue to be restricted to the previous ceiling of Tk2 crore.

Arup Haider, deputy managing director and head of retail banking at City Bank, welcomed the decision to raise the home loan limit from Tk2 crore to Tk4 crore.

He said it would have been more helpful if the loan-to-equity ratio had been revised to 80:20 instead of remaining at 70:30.

"If the ratio stays at 70:30 for a Tk4 crore loan, a borrower would need to inject Tk1.20 crore as equity, which could be challenging for many customers," he explained.

"This circular is positive for the banking sector. At the very least, it is certainly an improvement compared to what existed before," he added.

A deputy managing director of a private bank noted that the housing finance limit was last raised back in 2019 – from Tk1.2 crore to Tk2 crore.

"This [ the new limit] can be seen as a positive step, as flat prices have risen due to inflation, and customers now want higher loan amounts to match current market prices," the banker told The Business Standard.

Caracas and Washington have reached a deal to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the United States, US. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, a flagship negotiation that would divert supplies from China while helping Venezuela avoid deeper oil production cuts.

The agreement is a strong sign that the Venezuelan government is responding to Trump's demand hat they open up to US. oil companies or risk more military intervention. Trump has said he wants interim President Delcy Rodriguez to give the US and private companies "total access" to Venezuela's oil industry.

Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded on tankers and in storage tanks that it has been unable to ship due to a blockade on exports imposed by Trump since mid-December.

The blockade was part of rising US pressure on the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that culminated in US forces capturing him this weekend. Top Venezuelan officials have called Maduro's capture a kidnapping and accused the US of trying to steal the country's vast oil reserves.

Venezuela will be "turning over" between 30 and 50 million barrels of "sanctioned oil" to the US, Trump said in a social media post.

"This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!," he added.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is in charge of executing the deal, Trump said, adding that the oil will be taken from ships and sent directly to US ports.

Supplying the trapped crude to the US could initially require reallocating cargoes originally bound for China, two sources had told Reuters earlier on Tuesday. The Asian country has been Venezuela's top buyer in the last decade and especially since the United States imposed sanctions on companies involved in oil trade with Venezuela in 2020.

"Trump wants this to happen early so he can say it is a big win," an oil industry source said.

Venezuelan government officials and PDVSA did not provide comment.

CHEVRON IN CONTROL OF VENEZUELAN OIL FLOWS TO US

US crude prices fell more than 1.5% after Trump's announcement, with the agreement expected to increase the volume of Venezuelan oil exported to the US. That flow of oil is currently controlled entirely by Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, PDVSA's main joint venture partner, under a US authorisation.

Chevron, which has been exporting between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil to the US, is the only company that has been loading and shipping crude without interruption from the South American country in recent weeks under the blockade.

It was not immediately clear if Venezuela would have any access to proceeds from the supply. Sanctions mean PDVSA is excluded from the global financial system, its bank accounts are frozen and it is blocked from executing transactions in US dollars.

Venezuela has been selling its flagship crude grade, Merey, at around $22 per barrel below Brent for delivery at Venezuelan ports, giving a value for the deal at up to $1.9 billion.

Rodriguez, sworn in as interim president on Monday, is herself under US sanctions imposed in 2018 for undermining democracy.

TALKS INVOLVE POSSIBLE AUCTIONS WITH US BUYERS

Venezuelan and US officials this week discussed possible sales mechanisms, including auctions to allow interested US buyers to bid for cargoes, and issuing US licenses to PDVSA's business partners that could lead to supply contracts, two sources told Reuters.

Those licenses have in the past allowed PDVSA's joint venture partners and customers, including Chevron, India's Reliance (RELI.NS), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and European Eni (ENI.MI), and Repsol (REP.MC), to have access to Venezuelan oil to refine or to resell to third parties.

This week, some of those companies have begun making preparations for receiving Venezuelan cargoes again, two separate sources said.

The US and Venezuela have also discussed if Venezuelan oil can be used in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the future, one of the sources said. Trump did not refer to this possibility.

INCREASED OIL FLOWS WOULD BE 'GREAT NEWS'

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on Tuesday that an increased flow of Venezuelan heavy oil to the US Gulf would be "great news" for job security, future gasoline prices in the US and for Venezuela.

"Venezuela has an opportunity now to actually have capital come in and rebuild their economy and take advantage," he told Fox News, when asked about talks between the governments on oil exports. "With American technology, American partnership, Venezuela can be transformed."

US refineries on the Gulf Coast can process Venezuela's heavy crude grades and were importing some 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) before Washington first imposed energy sanctions on Venezuela.

PDVSA has already had to cut production due to the embargo, because it is running out of storage for the oil. Without a way to export oil soon, it would have to cut production more, one of the sources said.

Oil traders reacted to news of the deal talks on Tuesday. Differentials for some heavy oil grades in the US Gulf slipped around 50 cents per barrel on Tuesday on the prospect of more Venezuelan supplies.

India's competition watchdog has found market leaders Tata Steel, JSW Steel, state-run SAIL and 25 other firms breached antitrust law by colluding on steel selling prices, a confidential document shows, putting the companies and their executives at risk of hefty fines.

The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has also held 56 top executives, including JSW's billionaire Managing Director Sajjan Jindal, Tata Steel CEO T.V. Narendran and four former SAIL chairpersons, liable for price collusion over varying periods of time between 2015 and 2023, according to a CCI order dated October 6, which has not been made public and is being reported for the first time.

JSW declined to comment, while Tata Steel, SAIL, and the executives did not respond to Reuters queries. The CCI also did not respond to requests for comment.

The CCI investigation - the most high-profile case involving the steel industry - started in 2021 after a group of builders alleged in a criminal case brought to a state court that nine companies were collectively restricting the supply of steel and increasing prices.

Reuters reported in 2022 the watchdog raided some small steel companies as part of an investigation into the industry.

The probe was later expanded to as many as 31 companies and industry groups, as well as dozens of executives, the CCI's October order, reviewed by Reuters, shows. Under CCI rules, details of cases related to cartel-like activity are not made public before they have concluded.

The CCI investigation has "found the conduct of the parties to be in contravention" of Indian antitrust law and "certain individuals have also been held liable," the order stated.

The findings are a critical stage of any antitrust case.

They will be reviewed by top CCI officials and companies and executives will also have the opportunity to submit any objections or comments in a process that is likely to take several months given the scale of the investigation.

The CCI will then issue its final order, which will be released publicly.

RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FINES

India is the world's second-largest producer of crude steel, and demand for the alloy has been rising as infrastructure spending has increased in the fast-growing major economy.

JSW Steel has 17.5% of the Indian market, Tata Steel 13.3% and SAIL 10%, according to data from commodities consultancy BigMint.

Global inflows to ESG funds peaked in 2021 at $645 billion. But that was back when the Biden administration was encouraging investors to put

In the last fiscal year to March 2025, JSW Steel reported standalone revenues of $14.2 billion, while Tata Steel's were $14.7 billion.

The CCI is empowered to impose penalties on steel companies of up to three times their profit or 10% of turnover, whichever is higher, for each year of wrongdoing. Individual executives can also be fined.

JSW and SAIL have denied the allegations before the CCI, according to two people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named because the case was confidential.

One of them said JSW had also submitted its response to the CCI, and denied the allegations.

At 0852 GMT, shares in JSW Steel extended losses to 1.33%, SAIL was down 3.2%, and Tata Steel turned negative and fell as much as 0.7%. The main Nifty Metal Index also turned negative in Mumbai trade.

WHATSAPP CHATS REVIEWED

The CCI opened the case after Coimbatore Corporation Contractors Welfare Association alleged in a case it brought before a Tamil Nadu state court in 2021 that steel companies had hiked prices by 55% during a six-month period to March 11 that year, and were artificially boosting prices by restricting supply to builders and consumers.

After the public prosecutor said the issue was an antitrust matter, the judge then ordered the CCI to take "appropriate action" on the complaint of the association, whose members are involved in road and highway construction.

Other companies in the CCI document that were found to have allegedly colluded on prices, were Shyam Steel Industries, state-run Rashtriya Ispat Nigam and other smaller-sized firms. Shyam and Rashtriya did not respond to Reuters queries.

The CCI has asked the steel companies to submit their audited financial statements for the eight financial years to 2023, the October order showed. The watchdog typically seeks such details to calculate potential penalties.

While the October order did not detail the evidence analysed, an internal CCI document from July 2025 said officials had uncovered WhatsApp messages exchanged between regional industry groups of steel product makers that suggested wrongdoing.

The messages "indicate that they are involved in fixing the prices/cutting down production," said the July document.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has cancelled its previously approved transfer of 1 crore shares belonging to two directors of Golden Harvest Agro Industries, a listed company, to the non-bank financial institution IPDC.

The DSE had initially approved the share transfer on 10 December last year under DSE Listing Regulations, which govern transfers in cases involving confiscation or loan defaults.

Reversing its previous decision, the DSE, in two separate disclosures issued today (6 January), said it had withdrawn its approval for the transfer of 90 lakh shares held by sponsor-director Ahmed Rajeeb Samdani and 10 lakh shares held by director Nadia Khalil Choudhury to IPDC Finance, a non-bank financial institution.

DSE's previous disclosures stated that the total 1 crore shares – 90 lakh belonging to Ahmed Rajeeb Samdani and 10 lakh held by Nadia Khalil Choudhury – will be transferred within 30 working days.

Today, shares of Golden Harvest closed at Tk10.70 each on the DSE. Based on the current market price, the value of 1 crore shares is worth approximately Tk10.70 crore.

As per the financial statement, Golden Harvest has an outstanding loan amounting to Tk34.86 crore with IPDC Finance.

Golden Harvest, one of the pioneers in frozen food manufacturing in Bangladesh, got listed on the bourses in 2023.

According to January's shareholding report, Samdani held 4.73 crore shares, representing a 21.95% stake in the company, while Choudhury held 43.16 lakh shares, or 2%.

Of the total shares, sponsor-directors hold 30.42% stake in the company, while institutional investors hold 36.44%, foreign shareholders 0.22% and the general public hold 32.92%, as of December 2025.

Bangladesh gave the world the model of modern microfinance, proving that poor people are creditworthy. The success of the Grameen Bank reshaped development finance globally. Now, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, founder of the Grameen Bank, is seeking to push the sector into the next phase.

The target is to reach the 45 percent of adults who remain outside the formal banking system. To that end, the Financial Institutions Division (FID) has unveiled the draft Microcredit Bank Ordinance 2025, proposing a new tier of lenders called microfinance banks.

These institutions would combine the outreach of microcredit organisations with the services of commercial banks, offering products ranging from savings accounts to agricultural support, without collateral.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, described the proposed banks as a "progressive step".

"If they follow a social-business model and reinvest their profits, I don't see any problem," Hussain said.

At its core, the proposed banks would change how microfinance operates in Bangladesh. By allowing these new banks to accept shareholder investment and distribute dividends, the draft introduces profit incentives into a sector long designed around reinvestment and social outreach.

This shift has triggered strong resistance from the very institutions the model seeks to emulate. In a joint statement issued on Sunday, leaders of big microfinance institutions, including BRAC and ASA, warned that the draft ignores the "realities" of microfinance in Bangladesh.

A key point of contention is the distinction between "surplus" and "profit".

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are not charities. They charge interest to cover operating costs and generate surplus income. Under the existing NGO-based framework, however, that surplus cannot be distributed. It must be reinvested to expand outreach or strengthen capital buffers.

The draft ordinance would alter this structure by introducing shareholder profit. As microfinance banks would operate on a commercial footing, investors would expect dividends.

Critics argue this creates an inherent tension. To maximise returns, management could face pressure to move away from lending to the "ultra-poor", who are costly and risky to serve, and instead focus on wealthier and safer borrowers. This potential "mission drift" is what sector leaders fear most.

The proposed capital structure has further unsettled institutions.

The draft requires each microfinance bank to have at least Tk 100 crore in paid-up capital. Up to 60 percent of this could be raised from borrower shareholders, with the remainder coming from other investors.

This presents a fundamental dilemma. Many microfinance institutions hold large asset bases but have no formal ownership structure capable of injecting equity.

To meet the capital threshold, they may be forced to sell stakes to individuals or corporate investors. Sector leaders fear this could shift control away from social objectives and expose the institutions to the same governance failures that have long plagued commercial banks.

Mohammed Helal Uddin, executive vice-chairman of the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA), acknowledged that the draft, at which stage it is now, remains "incomplete", particularly on the question of how existing assets and liabilities would be converted into bank capital.

Some MFIs hold assets or liabilities worth Tk 30,000 crore to Tk 50,000 crore. The draft does not yet explain how these amounts would translate into paid-up capital, he said.

"That part is still missing," Helal Uddin admitted. "The draft will undergo further changes. That is why a technical group is already working on it."

Only after this process is completed, he added, would it be possible to assess the final shape of the ordinance.

Several broader questions also remain unresolved. If these entities continue to provide microcredit, how different will they be from existing MFIs? If they become banks, they would fall under the supervision of the Bangladesh Bank -- so what will their tax treatment be?

"There is still scope to work further on these issues, and that is exactly what the technical team is doing," Helal Uddin said.

"The Bangladesh Bank, the finance ministry and other stakeholders are also providing their opinions. Through this process, the draft will reach a more complete stage. Only then can it be judged whether this truly poses a concern for the sector."

Asked why major sector players were not consulted during drafting, Helal Uddin conceded that some institutions now objecting were not consulted, while stressing that discussions did take place with other stakeholders.

He also noted that once the law is finalised, detailed rules and regulations would be developed, which should clarify many implementation issues.

The draft defines microfinance banks as social businesses. Under this model, investors would recover their capital gradually through dividends over many years. In real terms, inflation would erode their returns. For example, an investment of Tk 100 recovered over 15 years would lose much of its value.

"If an investor cannot recover any part of the principal at all, then what incentive is there to invest? That question is still not clearly answered," Helal Uddin added.

REGULATORY DUALITY

Regulatory confusion is another flashpoint. The draft suggests licences would be issued by the Microcredit Regulatory Authority (MRA), raising the prospect of dual or even multiple oversight.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), argued that if these institutions are banks, they should be regulated solely by the central bank.

"A dual system never works well," he said.

State-owned banks already operate under overlapping authority from the Financial Institutions Division and the Bangladesh Bank, and their performance has suffered as a result. Adding the MRA could introduce a third layer of supervision, further complicating oversight, Mujeri warned.

"In India, microfinance banks are regulated by the Reserve Bank of India. Bangladesh should proceed only after a sound and practical assessment," he said.

Mujeri also pointed to disagreement within the sector. "It should be examined whether any vested interest is influencing the process," he added.

Rather than moving quickly, he argued that policymakers should conduct a thorough assessment of whether the model would genuinely benefit poor borrowers.

On profitability, he was direct. "Anyone investing here would naturally expect dividends," Mujeri said. "If there is no dividend, why would someone invest? This issue requires much deeper examination before any final decision is made."

A Model S is not an iPhone, a fact less obvious back in 2022. Then, electric-vehicle pioneer Tesla accounted for every dollar of profit generated from battery-powered rides. In that sense, it was similar to Apple, whose trailblazing smartphones became a recurring financial gift. The automaker's CEO, however, has been steering the $1.4 trillion company into artificial intelligence, self-driving and beyond, fantastical initiatives that look more prescient now.

Like Apple, Tesla has lost a crown. The company delivered 1.6 million cars last year, a nearly 10 percent drop from its 2023 peak. China's BYD eclipsed it by selling over 2 million battery-electric vehicles, Reuters reported. When the iPhone maker led by Tim Cook lost market share, however, it stayed immensely profitable. Apple accounts for 43 percent of worldwide handset revenue, Counterpoint Research reckons, despite slipping to 18 percent of shipments.

Tesla is different. Automotive revenue in 2026 is expected to dip 16 percent below its high, according to estimates gathered by Visible Alpha. The corresponding gross margin sits at half of 2022's level. As subsidies for battery-powered rides shrink or vanish and EV growth stalls, the company's operating profitability looks unremarkable next to rivals.

Even a futurist like Musk could not have envisioned all these shifts, especially ones instigated by Donald Trump's return to the White House. Other things were clearer. Tesla once held manufacturing advantages, like its giant die-casting machines, but they have since spread widely. Proprietary chargers are now accessible to rivals.

The iPhone's secret sauce is a connection to differentiated services and undergirding other industries. Musk's noodling over machine-learning and Optimus robots while abandoning efforts at a more reasonably priced vehicle might seem a concession that making cars is just too tough a business. Yet the technological advancements also point to something bigger.

Tesla's camera-reliant approach to self-driving diverges from competitors and depends on costly AI expertise. If successful, it would change what a car is. Meanwhile, the company's prodigious battery output powers electric grids. Energy storage is its most profitable business, with proliferating data centers bringing more potential customers.

These are the building blocks of a harder-to-break stronghold. Tesla shares trading at an astronomical 376 times estimated 2025 earnings implies a high degree of confidence in success. Musk has not shown a propensity for carefully polishing products to perfection, a philosophy that may prove too reckless. What could once be construed as the whims of a mad scientist, however, are now shaping up to be a more worthwhile experiment.

Tesla said on January 2 that it delivered 418,227 vehicles in the final three months of 2025, bringing the annual total to about 1.6 million, behind China's BYD, which sold more than 2 million battery-electric autos. The full-year figure represents a second annual decline for Tesla, from a 2023 peak of approximately 1.8 million deliveries.

Gold extended gains on Tuesday to hit a one-week high, as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials boosted bets on interest rate cuts and Venezuela tensions bolstered safe-haven demand.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $4,463.63 per ounce, as of 0722 GMT, after rising nearly 3 percent in the last session. Bullion hit a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26, and logged its best annual performance since 1979 last year with a jump of 64 percent.

US gold futures for February delivery rose 0.5 percent to $4,473.90.

"(Comments by Fed officials) certainly didn't hurt but it doesn't look like the calculus has changed all that much. We of course have a big week this week with the jobs report on Friday," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday inflation was slowly easing, but there was a risk the jobless rate could "pop" higher, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut.

Investors currently expect at least two rate cuts this year, while they look to the nonfarm payroll report, due on Friday, for more monetary policy cues.

Toppled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to narcotics charges after US President Donald Trump's capture of him rattled world leaders and left officials in Caracas scrambling to regroup.

"The capture of Maduro illustrated this rupture between the US and China and more broadly (the ongoing trend of) de-globalisation," Spivak said.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.

Spot silver gained 2.8 percent to $78.64 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on December 29. Silver ended 2025 with annual gains of 147 percent, far outpacing gold, in what was its best year on record.

US oil companies' shares closed higher on Monday, on investor optimism about potential access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves after President Donald Trump said the United States would take control of the South American nation following the arrest of its president Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela holds the world's largest oil reserves, but production plummeted in recent decades due to mismanagement, limited foreign investment following the nationalization of its oil industry and sanctions.

The Trump administration plans to meet with executives from US oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The meetings are crucial to the administration's hopes of getting top US oil companies back into the South American nation after its government, nearly two decades ago, took control of US-led energy operations there.

The Trump administration has told US oil executives in recent weeks that they would need to return to Venezuela quickly and invest significant capital in the country to revive the damaged oil industry if they wanted compensation for assets expropriated by Venezuela two decades ago, Reuters previously reported.

Shares of Chevron, the only US major currently operating in Venezuela's oil fields, ended 5 percent higher.

Meanwhile, US refiners Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, PBF Energy and Valero Energy were up between 3.4 percent and 9.3 percent.

Oil prices settled up $1 a barrel, with analysts noting that in a global market with plentiful supply, any further disruption to Venezuela's exports would have little immediate impact on prices.

Trump has said that the embargo on all Venezuelan oil exports would stay fully in effect for now.

Venezuelan crude is a heavy sour with high sulfur content, making it suitable for producing diesel and heavier fuels, albeit at lower margins compared with other grades, particularly those from the Middle East.

"This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of US Gulf Coast refineries which were historically designed to process such grades," said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone.

Chevron's existing presence in Venezuela under a US waiver has positioned it as a potential early beneficiary of any policy shift, while refiners stand to gain from increased availability of heavy crude closer to home.

RETURN OF ASSETS

The US action could also pave the way for the return of assets seized by Venezuela in 2007 under late leader Hugo Chavez, analysts at J.P. Morgan said.

They said ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil have significant arbitration awards pending, which have a higher chance of recovery.

"In total, ConocoPhillips has outstanding claims approaching $10 billion, while Exxon's outstanding damages appear to be in the $2 billion range against their original claims that exceeded $15 billion," the analysts said.

Shares reflected the optimism, with Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips adding more than 2 percent each.

Shares of oilfield services firms, whose technology would be crucial to boosting Venezuela's crude production, also climbed. Baker Hughes, Halliburton and SLB rose between 4 percent and 9 percent.

Still, analysts cautioned that any meaningful recovery would likely take time, given political uncertainty, infrastructure decay and years of underinvestment.

Venezuela was producing as much as 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 1970s, accounting for more than 7 percent of global output.

Production slid below 2 million bpd in the 2010s and averaged about 1.1 million bpd last year, or roughly 1 percent of global supply.

Elevated policy interest rate is likely to stay unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy stance (MPS) for the second half (H2) of this fiscal year as inflation rebounds after some remission.

Despite an outcry from the business circles over higher lending-rate regime amid persisting economic slowdown, Bangladesh Bank (BB) continues its contractionary monetary-policy stance to contain higher inflationary burdens by way of keeping the policy or REPO rate as high as 10 per cent prevalent since October 2024.

Under such tightfisted regulatory stance on money supply meant to check price escalations, Bangladesh Bank governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur on several occasions made a clear statement over adjustment of policy rate that the central bank would continue a tight monetary-policy posture until the inflation rate comes down to 7.0 per cent.

Because of the target, the monetary policy committee (MPC) at its 10th meeting early November last decided not to make any change to the existing nature of policy stance until the next MPS for January-June period of the fiscal year 2025-26 be announced on January 29, 2026.

According to the data of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), headline inflation relapsed to 8.49 per cent in just-passed December from 8.29 per cent in November and October's count of 8.17 per cent.

As part of the upcoming half-yearly MPS, the banking regulator has already started meetings with the stakeholders to elicit their opinions before the finish.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official says they have been holding meetings with various stakeholders since December 17 last taking opinions from the central bankers holding positions of director and above.

On December 29 last, according to the official, they also sat with the stakeholders like economists, senior bank executives and media personalities at a city hotel where many of them backed BB's current policy on inflation combat and suggested that the regulator continue the policy stance until the inflation target is reached.

"The interest-rate corridor may remain unchanged in the upcoming MPS due to recent spikes in inflation rate," the central banker told The Financial Express.Financial Analysis Service

He adds that the regulator will hold stakeholder meetings in Barishal tomorrow (January 8) and in Rangpur on January 15 next.

Thereafter, the outcomes of the meeting will be thoroughly discussed in the MPC (monetary policy committee) meeting to be held on January 22 before taking final decision that needs to be approved by the BB board members on January 25, according to the central bank source.

Interest corridor is an interest-rate managing band where policy rate -- now 10 per cent -- stays in the middle and the upper ceiling of the band which is called SLF or sanding lending facility (currently 11.50 per cent) while the floor rate is known as SDF or standing deposit facility, which is currently 8.0 per cent.

On condition of not to be quoted by name, another BB official says the possibility of adjustment, especially in policy rate, in the coming MPS seems very slim if the policy is not tilted at the last minute considering economic growth and pains of the businesses.

Regarding the projection of private-sector credit growth, the central banker says the projection was 7.20 per cent in the first-half MPS that ended on December 31st last and 8.0 per cent by end of June next but the growth was 6.58 per cent until November last.

He expects the private-sector credit demand to increase in the last quarter of this FY'26 that will start in April after the 13th parliamentary election scheduled for February 12th, 2026.

Việt Nam's total trade reached more than $930 billion in 2025, up 18.2 percent year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $20 billion, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO).

Speaking at a press conference in Hà Nội on Monday to announce fourth-quarter and full-year economic data, NSO Director General Nguyễn Thị Hương said the domestic sector recorded a trade deficit of $29.4 billion, while the foreign-invested sector, including crude oil, posted a surplus of nearly $49.5 billion.

Exports in December stood at $44 billion, up 12.6 percent from November. Domestic enterprises contributed $9.7 billion, rising 17.9 percent, while foreign-invested firms accounted for $34.3 billion, up 11.2 percent.

In the fourth quarter, exports totalled $126.3 billion, increasing 20 percent year-on-year but falling 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. For the whole year, exports rose 17 percent to $475 billion.

Domestic enterprises exported nearly $108 billion, down 6.1 percent and accounting for 22.7 percent of the total, while foreign-invested firms shipped $367.1 billion, up 26.1 percent and making up 77.3 percent.

The NSO reported that 36 product groups recorded export turnover of more than $1 billion, accounting for 94 percent of total exports. Eight groups exceeded $10 billion, representing 70.2 percent.

Processed industrial products led exports with $421.5 billion, or 88.7 percent. Agriculture and forestry earned $39.5 billion, seafood $11.3 billion, and fuels and minerals $2.8 billion.

On the import side, December imports rose 17.6 percent month on month to $44.7 billion. Domestic firms imported $14.6 billion, up 28.5 percent, while the foreign-invested sector imported $30.1 billion, up 13 percent. December imports surged 27.7 percent year-on-year, driven mainly by foreign-invested demand.

Fourth-quarter imports reached $123.1 billion, up 21.3 percent year-on-year and 2.9 percent quarter-on-quarter. For the whole year, imports grew 19.4 percent to $455 billion.

Domestic enterprises imported $137.4 billion, down 2 percent, while foreign-invested firms imported $317.6 billion, up 31.9 percent.

In 2025, 47 imported items recorded turnover of more than $1 billion, accounting for 93.8 percent of total imports, including nine items exceeding $10 billion.

Inputs for production dominated the import structure at $426.1 billion, or 93.6 percent. Machinery, equipment and spare parts accounted for 52.7 percent, raw materials and fuels 40.9 percent, while consumer goods totalled $28.9 billion, or 6.4 percent.

The United States remained Việt Nam's largest export market with $153.2 billion in turnover, while China continued to be the biggest import source at $186 billion.

Việt Nam posted a trade surplus of nearly $134 billion with the US, up 28.2 percent, and $38.6 billion with the European Union, up 10.1 percent. The surplus with Japan narrowed by 30.1 percent to $2.1 billion.

Trade deficits widened with China to $115.6 billion, up 39.6 percent, the Republic of Korea to $31.6 billion, up 4.3 percent, and ASEAN to $14.2 billion, up 42.4 percent.

Bangladesh Bank is set to initiate the liquidation of nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) following the consolidation of five troubled Shariah banks into a single entity, marking a major step in the central bank’s efforts to reform the country’s financial sector.

Governor Ahsan H Mansur told reporters on Monday that the institutions will be declared ‘non-viable’ within the week, after which a forensic audit will determine their actual financial position and net asset value (NAV).

“The extent of the institutions’ negative asset position cannot be confirmed until the audit is complete,” Mansur said, adding that further measures will be taken once the reports are received.

The central bank is also preparing to reduce shareholders’ stakes in the nine NBFIs to zero, following their failure to return depositors’ funds.

The nine institutions facing potential license cancellations are People’s Leasing, International Leasing, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), FAS Finance, Aviva Finance, Far East Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance and Premier Leasing.

Mansur said the decision reflects long-standing irregularities and weak liability management, emphasising that protecting depositors and restoring sectoral discipline are the central objectives.

A substantial portion of the crisis in these institutions stems from past corruption, particularly under the previous administration.

Four of the companies were reportedly linked to financier Prashant Kumar (PK) Halder, while another is associated with the S. Alam Group.

The total deposits trapped in the nine institutions amount to Tk 15,370 crore, with Tk 3,525 crore held by small depositors and Tk 11,845 crore by institutional and corporate clients.

To safeguard small depositors, Bangladesh Bank has requested Tk 5,000 crore from the government for claim settlements. People’s Leasing accounts for the largest volume of individual deposits at Tk 1,405 crore.

To prevent future crises, the central bank has established a Banking Resolution Division tasked with making swift intervention decisions when financial institutions weaken. While the current process involves five banks and these nine NBFIs, Mansur indicated that additional institutions could be brought under this framework if needed.

Analysts have described the move as a necessary, albeit difficult, step toward greater transparency and long-term stability in Bangladesh’s financial landscape.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Tuesday purchased US$223.50 million from 14 commercial banks through multiple auction methods as part of its ongoing strategy to curb the depreciation of the US dollar against the taka and revitalise the remittance and export sectors.

According to central bank data, it bought dollars today at the rate of Tk 122.30.

Accordingly, total purchases stood at $411 million in January 2026 and $3,546.50 million in FY 2025–26 to date.

Shares of several troubled non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) plunged sharply on Tuesday (6 January) as panic selling swept through the market following the central bank's clear signal that a group of weak lenders would soon be declared non-viable.

The sell-off reflected growing investor fears that equity holders could face a fate similar to that of shareholders in recently merged Islamic banks, where paid-up capital was wiped out entirely.

Trading data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) showed that stocks of risky NBFIs suffered steep losses, with many hitting their daily circuit breakers.

People's Leasing and Financial Services fell more than 10% to close at Tk0.51 per share, while FAS Finance dropped 10% to Tk0.63. Premier Leasing declined by the maximum allowed limit to Tk0.54, and Fareast Finance shed over 9% to end at Tk0.57.

International Leasing also slid 9.52% to Tk0.57, while First Finance lost 8% to Tk2.30. Prime Finance, GSP Finance and Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) also posted significant declines.

Market insiders said the sharp fall was driven by a wave of sell orders after Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur announced that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable within the week. Following his remarks, investors rushed to exit positions in weak financial institutions, fearing a total erosion of shareholder value. However, many were unable to sell their holdings due to the absence of buyers, leaving a large volume of unexecuted sell orders on the trading system throughout the day.

"The market was flooded with sell orders, but there were practically no buyers," said a broker familiar with the trading activity. "Investors are trying to cut losses, but confidence has completely evaporated in these stocks."

The governor's comments came at a press briefing at the central bank headquarters on 5 January, where he said independent auditors would be appointed to assess the true financial condition of the identified NBFIs.

He explained that the objective was to determine the actual scale of liabilities or negative net worth, whether it stood at Tk100 crore or Tk10,000 crore, to enable informed decisions.

While he expressed hope that private-sector depositors would receive repayment of their principal during Ramadan, he cautioned that shareholders were unlikely to recover their investments.

Financial data paints a grim picture of the institutions now under scrutiny. As of September 2025, most of these NBFIs had accumulated massive losses and deeply negative net asset values.

International Leasing alone posted accumulated losses exceeding Tk5,100 crore, with its net asset value per share plunging to minus Tk219 and a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio nearing 98%.

People's Leasing recorded losses of over Tk4,800 crore and an NPL ratio of nearly 99%, while FAS Finance reported an NPL ratio of almost 100% alongside heavy negative equity.

Similar distress is evident across Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, First Finance, GSP Finance and BIFC, underscoring years of weak governance, reckless lending and erosion of capital.

The central bank's move follows the issuance of a circular on 21 December, bringing NBFIs under the Bank Resolution Ordinance, 2025. Under this framework, Bangladesh Bank is empowered to take decisive actions, including winding up institutions that have remained in prolonged distress and failed to protect depositors' funds.

Earlier, on 30 November, the Bangladesh Bank board gave preliminary approval to liquidate nine NBFIs, including Peoples Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, Fareast Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, GSP Finance and Prime Finance.

After that decision, the DSE sought explanations from several of the named institutions. In their responses, the companies claimed they had not yet received any formal directive or letter from the central bank regarding liquidation or winding-up procedures. Despite these assurances, market confidence continued to deteriorate.

A managing director of a brokerage firm said the firm had already restricted fresh buying in these shares following the Bangladesh Bank board's November decision. "We advised our clients to stay away from these stocks, given the extremely high risk and the possibility of capital write-offs," he said.

Investor anxiety has been amplified by recent developments in the banking sector, where the central bank completed the merger of five Shariah-based banks by reducing their paid-up capital to zero. Under a capital reduction order issued by the Bank Resolution Department, all shares of the merged banks were cancelled, effectively wiping out shareholder ownership without compensation. As a result, thousands of small investors lost their entire investments, and shares of five Islamic banks remain suspended from trading.

Market analysts warn that NBFI shareholders could face a similar outcome if the institutions are formally declared non-viable. "The regulator's priority is clearly depositors, not equity holders," said one analyst. "Once an institution is deemed beyond rescue, shareholders are at the bottom of the recovery ladder."

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has taken a long-awaited step towards digitising tax refunds, moving away from the slow, manual process that businesses have long criticised as cumbersome and corruption-prone.

Starting today, VAT refunds will be credited directly to taxpayers' bank accounts through the e-VAT system, according to an NBR notice. Refunds for other taxes, including income tax and customs duties, will be brought under the online system in phases.

Businesses have welcomed the move, saying a fully functional online refund mechanism could save time, reduce harassment, and cut additional costs associated with repeated visits to tax offices.

Under the new platform, businesses will be able to apply for and receive excess VAT refunds online within 10 working days, without physically visiting NBR officials, according to businesses, tax experts, and NBR officials.

Thousands of crores stuck in refunds

NBR sources said that as of September 2025, VAT refunds amounting to Tk1,466 crore had been created under the VAT wing alone, a significant portion of which has remained unpaid for years.

While there is no consolidated data on refunds generated under the Income Tax and Customs wings, officials estimate the amount could run into several thousand crore taka.

Businesses have long complained that although refunds are legally due, disbursement is routinely delayed. Most VAT refunds are generated for commercial importers, who pay Advance Tax (AT) at the import stage. After reconciliation, if the actual VAT payable is lower than the AT deducted, the excess amount becomes refundable.

However, claiming these refunds has traditionally been a lengthy and costly process, often requiring repeated visits to tax offices.

According to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), there are around 6,000 commercial importers in the country, many of whom regularly generate refundable amounts.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Dhaka-based businessman told The Business Standard, "It can take three years or even longer to get a refund, and nearly 20% of the amount ends up being spent on officials just to get the money released."

Md Solaiman Parsee Faisal, chief executive officer of Faisal Polymer Industries Ltd, said the existing manual system leaves businesses vulnerable.

"Even when a refund is created, applying for it means officials hold you hostage. They ask for endless documents and delay the process, causing harassment, wasted time and extra costs," he said.

"We have long demanded an online system so that human interaction is minimised and harassment and unofficial costs are reduced."

Experts see trust-building potential

Lutfor Rahman, a former NBR member, said the initiative could help rebuild trust between taxpayers and the revenue authority if implemented properly.

"In countries with compliant tax systems, refunds are automatically deposited into taxpayers' accounts, which encourages people to pay taxes," he told TBS. "In Bangladesh, the absence of such a system is one of the reasons many are reluctant to comply."

He said mistrust persists on both sides, with some businesses hesitant to fully disclose information. He stressed that online refunds must be expanded quickly to income tax and customs, adding that mandatory online return submission would be key to success.

Scepticism remains

Despite the optimism, some business leaders remain cautious.

Amir Hossain Nurani, a steel importer and former FBCCI director, said structural issues must still be addressed.

"In my case, the actual value addition is less than 1%, yet I pay 7.5% at the import stage. I have not received any refund so far," he said.

"Unless refund conditions are simplified, an online system alone will not ensure businesses actually receive their money."

Why refunds arise

Snehasish Barua, a chartered accountant and director of SMAC Advisory Services Ltd, explained that refunds are mainly generated when import-stage taxes exceed actual VAT liability.

"For example, if a business's VAT liability is Tk30 but it paid Tk50 as Advance Tax, the excess Tk20 is refundable," he said.

Refunds can also arise when VAT is deducted twice for the same service, or when exporters pay VAT or Advance Tax on imported inputs despite exports being VAT-exempt.

"Although these refunds are legally due, businesses often face delays, bribery, and years of waiting," Barua said, adding that an online system could significantly reduce these problems.

Refunds in 3-10 days

NBR officials said that under the current manual process, VAT refunds can take six months or longer after application. With the fully online system, refunds could be processed within three to 10 working days, subject to compliance.

A VAT commissioner in Dhaka said taxpayers must submit returns online to qualify for e-refunds. Currently, about 60% of VAT returns are filed online.

Under the new system, supporting documents can be uploaded digitally with the return. The division office will verify the application against 24 checkpoints before forwarding it to the commissioner for approval. Once approved, the refund will be transferred directly to the taxpayer's bank account.

"There will be no need for taxpayers or their representatives to visit the VAT office," the official said, adding that physical visits may still be required if documents are missing or queries arise.