Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will inaugurate the Family Card programme today (10 March) at the T&T playground in Banani, adjacent to the Korail slum, aiming to deliver economic benefits directly to citizens' doorsteps.

At a press conference on the launching programme at the Secretariat yesterday (9 March), Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the initiative as non-political, non-partisan, and fully transparent, noting that it is designed to ensure the benefits of the nation's economy reach every citizen.

Social Welfare Minister Abu Zafar Md Zahid Hossain detailed the programme, explaining that under the pilot phase, 37,567 female-headed households have been selected to receive allowances ahead of Eid in March.

Each eligible family will receive one Family Card covering up to five members, with additional cards issued proportionally for larger households, he added. "If a woman head of household already receives other government allowances, those will be cancelled, while benefits to other family members will continue," the minister explained.

Under the pilot, each household will receive a monthly allowance of Tk2,500, with plans to expand to include food assistance in the future.

A total of Tk38.07 crore has been allocated for the pilot, with Tk25.15 crore (66%) earmarked for direct cash transfers and Tk12.92 crore (34%) for data collection, system development, card preparation, and programme management.

The pilot covers 13 city corporations and 15 wards across 13 districts, supported by committees at ward, union, upazila, and district levels.

Ward committees collected detailed household information—including socio-economic status, family size, education, housing, assets (TV, fridge, computer, mobile), and remittance flows—which was then verified at union and upazila levels.

During the pilot, data from 67,854 female-headed households were analysed using a Proxy Means Test (PMT) or poverty index, classifying families into five categories: ultra-poor, poor, lower-middle-class, middle-class, and upper-class.

After verification, 47,777 households in the ultra-poor, poor, and lower-middle-class categories were confirmed, and the final 37,567 households were selected based on factors such as existing government allowances, employment, or pension status.

"The entire selection process is software-driven through the PMT, leaving no room for corruption, favouritism, or manual interference," the Social Welfare Minister stressed.

Each selected household will receive a modern smart Family Card equipped with a chip, QR code, and Near-field communication (NFC) technology to ensure safety and durability.

Minister Zahid Hossain said that households were deemed ineligible if any member received a salary, allowance, grant, or pension from government, autonomous, or state-owned institutions, if the female head worked as a teacher or staff member in an MPO-listed institution, or if the household owned commercial licenses, large businesses, luxury assets (cars, air conditioners), or savings certificates worth Tk500,000 or more.

The Family Card allowance will be disbursed directly from the Social Welfare Ministry's social security budget to beneficiaries' mobile wallets or bank accounts via the G2P (Government-to-Person) system, he added.

During data collection, beneficiaries' account information was gathered to ensure timely, accurate, and interference-free delivery of funds directly to recipients

The government is managing the country's overall economic activities with a careful eye on the global economic situation and various crises, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (9 March).

"The economic challenges arising from wars and other global factors cannot be avoided. Our current activities and future economic projections are determined with these realities in mind," he said at a press conference held at the ministry's conference room to inaugurate the "Family Card" programme which launches tomorrow.

Responding to a question on whether the government would continue austerity measures in spending, he said all ministries have been instructed to plan programmes according to the prevailing situation.

"The upcoming budget will also be prepared considering these circumstances," he added.

Asked about securing oil supply from China, Khasru said, "For energy security, we are seeking cooperation from various countries. Energy security is extremely important for the country, so the government is in discussions with all countries that can supply energy and seeking their support."

He also highlighted the "Family Card" initiative as a landmark poverty reduction effort.

"To my knowledge, such a large-scale poverty alleviation programme has not been undertaken in Bangladesh before. Through this, we aim to deliver economic benefits directly to people at their doorstep," he said.

The minister emphasised that the initiative reflects a gradual shift toward a welfare state in Bangladesh.

"In the past, economic benefits were distributed through patronage systems. Now, the government is directly reaching the common people," he noted.

Mobile telecom operators have urged the regulator to ensure priority allocation of fuel and electricity for network operations, warning that disruptions in supply could affect nationwide connectivity.

Limited availability of fuel at filling stations is creating risks for maintaining uninterrupted telecom services across the country, Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) said in a letter to the chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) yesterday (9 March).

Companies have also expressed concern about sustaining operations during the upcoming Eid holidays amid government indications of possible load shedding.

AMTOB Secretary General Mohammad Zulfikar said mobile operators rely heavily on diesel- and petrol-powered generators to keep networks running, particularly during power outages.

"If fuel supply becomes uncertain, it could hamper maintenance activities, generator operations and emergency responses required to keep the telecom network functioning," he said.

The association noted that telecommunications have been declared an essential service by the government and currently support more than 185 million mobile subscribers across the country.

Telecom infrastructure also plays a vital role in enabling emergency communication, public safety services, digital financial transactions, business operations and government services.

According to the letter, reduced fuel availability at some filling stations has already created operational challenges for operators.

AMTOB warned that insufficient fuel supply could lead to network outages across large geographical areas, instability in data centres, equipment damage and longer service restoration times.

To prevent such disruptions, the association requested the regulator to coordinate with relevant authorities to ensure priority fuel allocation for mobile network operators and tower companies.

It also called for uninterrupted fuel supply for core network facilities and data centres, assured fuel availability for base transceiver stations (BTS) and maintenance vehicles, and reduced load shedding at critical telecom infrastructure sites.

Bangladesh has been facing persistent energy challenges in recent times as the country remains heavily dependent on imported fuels, including liquefied natural gas, petroleum products and coal.

The war in the Middle East has raised concern of fuel supply, triggering the government to adopt rationing measures. Conflict has also sparked panic buying, creating shortages at fuel pumps.

A tanker carrying more than 27,000 tonnes of diesel reached the waters of Chattogram Port today (9 March), amid a nationwide fear of supply shortage ten days after the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive at the port within a week.

Together, the five tankers will bring about 147,205 tonnes of refined diesel imported from Asian countries, according to port and shipping sources.

The arrival comes at a time when diesel demand has increased due to panic buying following the war in the Middle East. To manage stock levels, the government has recently reduced the daily fuel supply.

Port sources said the tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered the port's maritime area earlier in the day. According to vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic, the tanker is currently anchored near Kutubdia.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, is expected to reach the port tonight from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Two additional vessels — Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu — are expected to reach the port next Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping Lines, the local agent for the four tankers, told The Business Standard that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

"Once they reach the port waters, the unloading will begin sequentially," he said.

According to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), the country's normal daily demand for diesel is around 12,000 tonnes. The five tankers together could meet roughly 12 days of demand.

However, since Sunday, the government has reduced daily diesel supply to about 9,000 tonnes to maintain adequate reserves. At that rate, the incoming shipments could cover around 16 days of demand.

Existing stockpiles are expected to last another 16 to 17 days, meaning the combined supply would be sufficient to meet nearly a month of the country's diesel demand.

BPC data shows that diesel accounts for about 70% of Bangladesh's total fuel consumption, with most of it imported directly.

According to the National Board of Revenue, Bangladesh imported 2.328 million tonnes of diesel from nine countries between July and February of the current fiscal year.

Of that total, 78% came from Singapore, Malaysia, and India, while no diesel was imported from Middle Eastern countries during the period.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has appointed observers at National Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Premier Bank, and IFIC Bank to closely monitor their activities.

The central bank made the decision this week.

“The decision to appoint observers at these banks is part of a continuous process,” said Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank.

Munir Ahmed Chowdhury, director of the Bank Supervision Department-12 of BB, has been appointed as an observer to the National Bank.

Mohammad Anisur Rahman, director of the Islamic Banking Regulations and Policy Department, has been assigned to observe Al-Arafah Islami Bank.

ANM Moinul Kabir, director of the Payment Systems Department-1, has been appointed to Premier Bank.

AKM Kamruzzaman, director of the Forex Reserve and Treasury Management Department-1, has been appointed to IFIC Bank.

The central bank usually appoints observers to banks whose financial health is deteriorating.

Observers take part in board meetings and monitor the banks’ operations. They are withdrawn once the financial health of the bank improves.

After the fall of the Awami League-led government on August 5, 2024, the central bank restructured the boards of 14 banks, including these four lenders.

For four years, Bangladesh has struggled to escape the inflation spiral unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a crisis that turned it into South Asia's highest-inflation economy.

Now another geopolitical shock is gathering force. On the tenth day of the US-Israel war on Iran, global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since that invasion, threatening to unleash yet another inflation storm on an already strained economy.

The uncomfortable irony is that the escalating war in the Middle East arrives just as a freshly elected government takes office and just as inflation had finally begun to slow.

Following a tightening monetary stance by the Bangladesh Bank, inflation had slipped below 9% – still high, but hinting that the long price surge might finally be losing momentum.

Oil soars 25%, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets

The latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics reveal just how uneasy the inflation landscape still is. Overall inflation climbed to 9.13% in February 2026, a ten-month high. Even more worrying, food inflation – the measure that defines everyday living costs – jumped to 9.30%, the highest in 13 months.

For ordinary households, the pain is becoming structural. Wage growth stood at 8.06%, marking the 48th consecutive month in which income growth has lagged behind inflation.

US crude oil, the front-month West Texas Intermediate futures soared 30% to hit $118.28 a barrel in Monday (9 March) trading hours, while Brent, the international benchmark, jumped more than 25% to $116.67 per barrel.

The surge comes as the escalating US-Israel war on Iran has fuelled fears of prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply, while the UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil production after the Strait blockage.

Inflation shoots up to 9.13% in February, highest in 10 months

For Bangladesh, such shocks rarely remain distant geopolitical headlines. Even before oil crossed $100 per barrel, panic buying gripped petrol pumps, showing that government assurances and rationing did little to calm fears.

The country imports most of its fuel and fertiliser, so global oil spikes ripple through the economy: transport costs rise, electricity becomes more expensive, fertiliser and irrigation costs climb, shipping costs increase, and eventually the pressure spreads to food markets and consumer goods. In short, global oil shocks quietly reach domestic kitchens.

Bangladesh has faced this before. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fuel, fertiliser, and food prices sharply higher, pushing inflation above 9% and keeping it stubbornly elevated for years. Today, the macroeconomic environment is even more fragile.

Merchandise exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in February 2026, while private credit growth dipped to a record low of 6% in January. Even the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission could not look away – its February 2026 Monthly Economic Update & Outlook report highlighted that a revenue shortfall, combined with weak mid-year Annual Development Programme (ADP) utilisation, is creating mounting fiscal challenges.

Governments scramble to limit fallout of Iran war as oil prices surge

The pressure on the taka is a particular concern. From Tk86 in February 2022 to crossing Tk100 in September 2022, it has now stood at Tk122.5 against the US dollar. With the US-Israel war on Iran driving energy costs ever higher, a further weakening of the taka could sharply push up import bills, electricity and fuel costs, and production expenses, sending the economic burden soaring across Bangladesh.

This also creates a difficult dilemma for monetary policy. With inflation already high, there is little room to loosen policy to stimulate growth. Yet tighter financial conditions risk slowing investment and employment.

Whether this becomes another full-scale inflation storm will depend largely on how long the war persists and whether global energy supply and routes stabilise. But the early signals from markets are unsettling.

Bangladesh is bracing for a storm it cannot fully control, and the coming months will test both policy resilience and the patience of ordinary citizens.

After months of stability, Bangladesh’s currency has started to lose value against the US dollar as Bangladesh Bank stopped intervening in the market due to the possible impact of the US-Israel war against Iran.

Yesterday, the greenback was traded at a maximum of Tk 122.55 each, up from Tk 122.37 on the previous day.

The weighted average interbank exchange rate stood at Tk 122.49 per US dollar, up from Tk 122.43 a day earlier, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

The interbank exchange rate was Tk 122.36 last Thursday and Tk 122.33 on Wednesday, the data showed.

Central bank data shows that the weighted average interbank exchange rate against the greenback has continued to weaken since March 2 this year.

Officials of the central bank said the regulator has now stopped intervening in the market due to the possible impact, which is why the value of the taka has started to weaken against the US dollar.

They also noted that fuel prices in the international market have increased sharply, which is likely to raise import costs and lead to volatility in the forex market in the coming days.

Considering that potential impact, Bangladesh Bank halted purchasing US dollars from the market, they added.

Bangladesh Bank purchased more than $5 billion from the foreign exchange market since the beginning of this fiscal year until March 2.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser and food.

The new governor of Bangladesh Bank recently hinted that the regulator will provide US dollar support from forex reserves to import fuel if needed, officials said.

Due to Bangladesh Bank’s dollar purchase spree, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have continued to rise.

Forex reserves stood at $34 billion as of March 8 this year, according to Bangladesh Bank data. However, the reserves stood at $29.38 billion as per the IMF calculation.

On Saturday, eight leading economists of the country met the new governor of the central bank to discuss ways to address the possible impact of the Middle East crisis on the economy.

The economists suggested that Bangladesh Bank remain cautious about spending from the country’s foreign exchange reserves as tensions in the Middle East threaten to create fresh economic shocks.

They also warned that rising global fuel prices due to the Middle East crisis could increase the country’s import bills and eventually put pressure on the foreign exchange reserves.

The economists advised the central bank to explore alternative funding sources to settle fuel import payments instead of using the reserves.

Iran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil ships with safe passage as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and LNG-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has agreed that Bangladeshi ships will be allowed to pass through the strategic waterway after notifying Iranian authorities before entering the strait, energy officials said, easing immediate concerns over the country's fuel supply.

Meanwhile, a vessel carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel arrived at Chattogram port from Singapore yesterday, and four more ships carrying 1,20,205 tonnes of fuel are scheduled to arrive at the port later this week, energy officials have said.

They said to meet April's demand, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources has begun the process of importing 3 lakh tonnes of diesel from alternative sources through direct procurement.

An official said Bangladesh is planning direct procurement outside long-term contracts, as deliveries under existing agreements have become uncertain following the war.

Under normal circumstances, the country's daily diesel demand is 12,000 tonnes, but the government is currently supplying 9,000 tonnes per day. If the current supply continues, the five incoming shipments totalling 147,205 tonnes will cover 16 days of national demand.

On Monday morning, Mohammad Arif Sadek, the ministry's public relations officer, confirmed the arrival of a fuel vessel at Chattogram port and said another ship was expected on Monday night.

China and India signal support

India and China have also expressed willingness to assist Bangladesh in supplying fuel. Finance Minister Amir Khasru confirmed seeking cooperation from India and China to ensure energy security, stating:

"Not only India and China, we have approached several countries to secure fuel supplies and maintain communication with them. There is no reason for a fuel crisis."

After a meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury and Energy Minister Tuku yesterday, the ambassador China Yao Wen confirmed his country's interest in supporting Bangladesh.

After the meeting, Yao Wen said Bangladesh and China will work together to resolve fuel issues, and China is eager to provide fuel assistance.

Option to import more diesel from India

Under an existing agreement between BPC and India's Numaligarh Refinery Limited, the Indian state-owned refinery is scheduled to supply 180,000 tonnes of diesel annually through the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.

Of this volume, around 120,000 tonnes have already been confirmed, but Bangladesh still has the option to import an additional 60,000 tonnes depending on its demand.

According to BPC officials, the additional supply being explored would mainly cover the last week of March and the entire month of April, as two diesel cargoes scheduled for early March failed to arrive within their delivery windows.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, Joint Secretary (Operations) of the Energy Division, told TBS that several suppliers have proactively offered to sell fuel to Bangladesh. The BPC will review these offers and forward them to the ministry for approval.

4 more tankers due this week

Port sources said tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered Chattogram port yesterday. Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive in the coming days.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, was expected to reach the port last night from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Tanker carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel reaches Ctg Port, 4 more due this week

Two additional vessels – Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu – are expected to reach the port on Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping, the local agent for the four tankers, told TBS that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

Emergency imports under consideration

Amid supply uncertainty, the government has moved to secure around 300,000 tonnes of diesel from alternative suppliers outside its existing long-term contracts.

Officials said the fuel will be procured through the direct procurement method (DPM) to expedite the process. Discussions are currently underway with several North American suppliers to arrange emergency diesel shipments.

Speaking to TBS on Sunday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is exploring every available option to ensure adequate diesel supply for April.

"So far we don't have that many problems in March. Keeping the supply uncertainty from long term contracts, we are exploring all sources to ensure around 3 lakh tonnes of diesel under DPM so that there is no disruption in the supply chain," he said.

Regarding when the supply will be confirmed from alternative sources, the energy secretary said, "We are trying to confirm delivery as soon as possible."

The authorities began exploring alternative sourcing options early, anticipating the lengthy approval process required for emergency purchases.

"There is an approval process involving the government's purchase committee. That is why we started the process earlier," Saiful Islam said.

Currently, Bangladesh imports refined petroleum products from eight countries – Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, China, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Oman and Kuwait.

However, officials noted that a significant portion of petrol and octane is produced locally, helping reduce reliance on imports for these products.

Import disrupted

According to a fuel import scenario prepared by BPC on 7 March and presented before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the country planned to import 293,000 tonnes of diesel in March.

However, around 60,000 tonnes of diesel cargoes have either been deferred or cancelled, raising concerns about supply stability.

In its briefing to the prime minister, BPC noted that despite having contracts with suppliers from both the Near East and the Far East, geopolitical developments have made fuel supply increasingly uncertain.

In one instance, Singapore-based Vitol Asia cancelled a scheduled octane shipment for March, citing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to BPC data as of 7 March, Bangladesh currently has 129,000 tonnes of diesel in reserve, which is enough to meet demand for around 14 days. The country also has 23,000 tonnes of octane, sufficient for about 25 days, and 15,000 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly 15 days.

In addition, BPC reported 67,000 tonnes of furnace oil in reserve, which could last about 49 days, while Jet A-1 aviation fuel reserves stand at around 60,000 tonnes, also enough for roughly 49 days.

Mobile courts launched nationwide

To ensure uninterrupted fuel supply, the Cabinet Division has instructed all deputy commissioners to operate mobile courts across the country. This directive was issued in a letter from the Cabinet Division on Monday.

District authorities have been directed to take necessary measures accordingly.

Additionally, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has established central and regional monitoring and control cells to closely track fuel supply, maintain market stability, and resolve complaints promptly.

Special attention is being given to ensure that fuel supply for irrigation during the ongoing Boro season is not disrupted.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (Bippa) has urged the government to clear outstanding power bills owed to private power plants, warning that delays could disrupt fuel imports and lead to load-shedding during the upcoming summer.

The association said power producers are struggling to open letters of credit (LCs) to import fuel due to delayed payments at a time when global energy markets remain volatile amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The appeal was made at a press conference held in the capital yesterday by Bippa, which represents privately owned power plants in the country. Former Bippa president Imran Karim presented an overview of the current power sector situation at the event.

Bippa said outstanding payments owed to private power producers have reached around Tk14,000 crore, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain operations.

Under existing power purchase agreements, electricity bills are supposed to be settled within 30 days, but payments are currently being delayed by 180 to 270 days, according to the association.

Such prolonged delays have created severe financial pressure for power plant operators, making it difficult to procure fuel and sustain electricity generation.

"If the payments are cleared, fuel can still be imported even under difficult global conditions, including the ongoing war situation," Imran said.

To address the issue, Bippa suggested that the government could adopt a similar approach to the one taken by the previous interim administration.

Imran noted that the interim government had earlier issued Tk5,000 crore in bonds to partially clear outstanding payments to power producers.

The move, along with regular bill payments afterward, helped stabilise the sector and ensured uninterrupted electricity supply during last summer, he said.

"As a result, there was no major load-shedding during last year's summer," Imran said, adding that the current government could also issue bonds or allocate funds to settle the dues and avoid a similar crisis this year.

Effective power capacity lower than installed capacity

Although Bangladesh's installed electricity generation capacity exceeds 28,000 megawatts (MW), a large portion of that capacity remains idle due to fuel shortages and other operational constraints, power plant owners noted.

According to Bippa, more than 6,000MW of generation capacity remains unused because of insufficient gas supply, while another 1,626MW is currently offline for maintenance.

In addition, solar power is unavailable at night, and many diesel-fired plants remain shut due to high operating costs.

As a result, the country's effective available capacity during peak demand stands at around 18,627MW, and actual generation could reach about 18,000MW if fuel supplies remain stable, Imran said.

Fuel costs rising faster than electricity tariffs

Imran also pointed out that global fuel price increases have significantly raised electricity generation costs.

According to his analysis, fuel costs for power generation have risen by about 95% over the past six years, while electricity tariffs have not increased at the same pace.

During the same period, operational costs of power plants have increased by 55%, adding further financial pressure on plant operators.

Meanwhile, about 70% of electricity consumption in Bangladesh occurs in residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors, where tariffs have increased by only 54% over the same period.

As a result, higher electricity generation would increase the government's subsidy burden, as production costs continue to rise faster than retail tariffs.

To ease pressure on electricity generation costs, Bippa called on the government to temporarily withdraw import duties on fuel used for power generation.

Specifically, the association proposed removing 34% duty on imported fuel oil and 22% duty on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to Bippa, such measures could help lower generation costs at a time when global energy prices remain volatile.

Gas shortages limiting power generation

Bippa President David Hasanat also noted that managing electricity demand during the upcoming summer could be challenging due to multiple constraints.

"The situation could become even more complicated due to the ongoing Iran war, which is affecting global fuel markets," he said.

Hasanat added that around 23% of the country's power plants are currently unable to operate due to gas shortages, further straining the electricity system. He noted that increasing gas supply in the short term remains difficult because of infrastructure limitations.

"There is no immediate scope to significantly increase gas supply, and the infrastructure needed to expand imports is also limited," he said.

Fuel reserves may last until early April

According to Imran, oil-based power plants currently have enough fuel reserves to operate until 7-10 April, although the situation may vary across facilities depending on individual fuel stocks.

"To keep these plants operational, it is essential to ensure a steady fuel supply and timely payment of bills," he said.

Responding to questions about reducing generation costs, Imran said operators of furnace-oil-based power plants have already made concessions.

He noted that the interim government had reduced the service charge on fuel imports from 9% to 5%, which plant owners accepted.

He also said power producers are not charging interest on overdue payments, despite bills remaining unpaid for up to nine months.

"In contrast, some suppliers in other sectors shut down operations due to unpaid bills, but private power plants have continued operating despite the outstanding dues," he said.

Despite the challenges, Hasanat said private power producers remain committed to supporting the government in maintaining the electricity supply.

"We are ready to support the government in maintaining a stable electricity supply. After all, if the country survives, we all will survive," he said.

When tensions escalate among global and regional powers, the shockwaves ripple through oil markets, shipping lanes, labour migration routes, and financial systems, reaching economies thousands of kilometres away.

The US-Israel war on Iran is rapidly emerging as one of the most significant geopolitical crises for the global economy in recent years, sending tremors through markets and supply chains.

Although the fighting is roughly 4,000 kilometres from Bangladesh, economists say the impact could be substantial for a nation heavily reliant on imported fuel and remittances from workers in the Middle East.

According to economists, the crisis due to the war risks setting off a chain reaction: rising energy prices, disrupted trade flows, weakened export competitiveness, turmoil in the migrant labour market and remittance inflows, higher inflation, and renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid a constrained fiscal space.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said Bangladesh’s economic exposure could unfold through three channels: energy, the dollar, and trade and finance.

He compared the potential shock of the war to an earthquake rather than a passing storm.

A storm passes temporarily, Hussain said. “Water rises and then recedes. Some damage happens, but the situation stabilises. But an earthquake damages the underlying infrastructure, affecting both life and property.”

The economist said the scale of the impact will depend on both the intensity and duration of the war.

“The key question is not only the magnitude of the shock, but also how long it lasts. The longer it continues, the greater the damage,” he said.

ENERGY SHOCK LOOMS

The most immediate and potentially severe impact of the Iran war is on global oil markets, with the price surging to $119 as of yesterday compared to around $72 per barrel a year ago.

The Gulf region sits at the heart of the world’s energy supply chain.

Following last week’s US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route, seriously disrupting cargo transport between the Middle East and Bangladesh.

Major shipping lines have suspended cargo bookings between the Indian subcontinent, including Bangladesh, and the Gulf.

For Bangladesh, the consequences could be painful.

The country imports almost all its fuel -- from crude oil to refined petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). A spike in oil prices would immediately inflate the country’s energy import bill.

Long queues have already appeared at fuel stations across the country as panic buying spreads, while the government has closed universities and introduced fuel rationing to cushion the fallout.

Higher fuel prices would also increase costs for electricity generation, transportation, and industrial production.

In that case, the government, already struggling to manage energy subsidies, would face difficult choices: absorb the cost through larger subsidies or pass it on to consumers through higher fuel and power prices.

Both carry economic consequences, such as rising subsidies straining public finances, while higher domestic energy prices push up living costs and production expenses.

INFLATION COULD GO WILD, AGAIN

Energy shocks rarely stay confined to the power sector; instead, they ripple through the entire economy.

Bangladesh has been struggling with stubbornly high inflation for around three years. Inflation was above the 9 percent mark from March 2023, easing slightly in 2025, and showing a resurgence recently.

The drivers for renewed price pressure include high food prices, currency depreciation, and rising import costs.

A further rise in global oil prices would amplify these pressures by raising transport and logistics costs across supply chains.

Higher fuel costs affect everything from agricultural irrigation to the distribution of essential commodities, potentially pushing food inflation higher and squeezing household purchasing power.

This dynamic could leave the economy facing elevated inflation alongside slowing growth.

After months of easing, headline inflation reached a 10-month high in February due mainly to rising food prices, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE UNDER STRAIN

Energy imports are one of Bangladesh’s largest sources of foreign currency outflows. A prolonged rise in oil prices would add pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Bangladesh has previously faced periods of reserve stress due to high import bills and currency volatility. Another energy shock could widen the current account deficit, increasing the cost of fuel imports.

As demand for dollars rises, the Bangladeshi taka may face renewed depreciation, further raising the domestic price of imported goods and reinforcing inflation.

REMITTANCE RISKS

Bangladesh’s large migrant workforce in the Middle East is another vulnerability. Since fiscal year 2025, around 86 lakh Bangladeshi workers have gone abroad for jobs, with Saudi Arabia employing nearly half.

Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, account for around 75 percent of overseas employment, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

If the conflict escalates, economic activity in the Gulf could slow, threatening employment for migrant workers and reducing remittance inflows.

Even a moderate slowdown would put additional pressure on Bangladesh’s external balance, as remittances play a crucial role in offsetting the country’s large import bill.

The war could also disrupt global trade routes. During geopolitical tension, shipping companies often raise insurance premiums, and freight rates increase if vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones.

For Bangladesh’s export-oriented industries, particularly the ready-made garment sector, higher logistics costs could reduce competitiveness. Importers would also face higher charges for essential commodities, machinery, and industrial inputs, feeding through into domestic prices.

Bangladesh’s energy system remains fragile. Power generation depends heavily on imported fuels and LNG.

Tight global gas markets or surging LNG prices could make affordable supply difficult, leading to potential power shortages or higher generation costs. Such disruptions could affect industrial production, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and textiles.

“The first risk is energy, both in terms of price increases and availability,” said economist Hussain.

“Even if you are willing to pay a higher price, you may not be able to secure supply. If energy supply is disrupted, the real economy, agriculture, industry and services, comes under risk,” he added.

The economist also warned of mounting pressure on the US dollar. “As global uncertainty rises, the dollar strengthens and our import bill increases,” Hussain said.

“Even if the volume of imports does not rise, the total bill will increase, meaning we will have to spend more local currency to buy the same amount of dollars. That will further fuel inflation.”

A stronger dollar could complicate external payments.

“When dollars become scarce, settlement of outstanding payments becomes difficult, and payment obligations start to accumulate,” he said, adding that this could create pressure on banks’ balance sheets and the government budget.

The third channel is trade and financial flows, particularly higher logistics costs.

“Freight charges, port costs and insurance premiums are already rising, which increases payments under the services account of the balance of payments,” Hussain said. “Individually, these costs may seem small, but collectively they create significant pressure.”

He also flagged risks to remittance flows.

“There are two risks for remittances. First, employment and wage risks for migrant workers if the conflict spreads, and second, possible disruptions in payment systems that could affect money transfers,” he said.

“The external balance, financial sector and energy supply are all exposed, and their combined impact will eventually affect the real economy -- growth, employment and wages,” Hussain added.

BANGLADESH NEEDS A CONTINGENCY PLAN

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said Bangladesh should prepare a contingency plan to deal with emerging risks.

“We need to think about how to use the foreign financing already in the pipeline so that pressure on foreign exchange reserves remains limited,” he said. Once these funds arrive, they could add several billion dollars to reserves, easing external pressure.

Rahman also called for mobilising additional support, including budgetary assistance from institutions such as the World Bank.

“If fuel import costs surge, it will be very difficult to manage through reserves alone,” he said. “In that case, we may need financing arrangements such as import credit facilities from institutions like the Islamic Development Bank. Preparing a contingency plan in advance would be a prudent step.”

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, when asked about the potential impact of the war and whether austerity measures were being considered, did not provide a detailed response.

“We are working on this issue,” he told The Daily Star.

The government must address seven major economic challenges, including persistent inflation and energy constraints, through coordinated reforms to restore growth and strengthen economic resilience, speakers said yesterday.

Bangladesh’s economy faces multiple structural obstacles, as highlighted at the launch of a publication by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) titled “Reviving Private Sector-Led Economic Growth: Critical Issues and Priorities Facing the New Government in Bangladesh”, organised jointly with Policy Exchange Bangladesh in Dhaka yesterday.

The report identifies seven priority reform areas: macroeconomic stabilisation, fiscal management, financial sector reform, export competitiveness and diversification, revitalising private investment, energy security and skills development for employment.

Presenting the report, M Masrur Reaz said Bangladesh’s economic management requires an integrated approach as multiple structural constraints are slowing investment, exports and job creation.

He said the country entered a macroeconomic crisis in mid-2022 when inflation rose to around 13-14 percent, foreign exchange reserves dropped from nearly $48 billion to about $19 billion, and the taka depreciated sharply.

Although reserves have recovered to around $28-29 billion, major vulnerabilities remain.

Economic growth has slowed to about 3.49 percent, while the tax-GDP ratio has fallen to around 7 percent and debt servicing now accounts for roughly 21 percent of the national budget.

Private investment has declined from 24.9 percent to 22.5 percent of GDP, while foreign direct investment remains below 1 percent of GDP. Export concentration is another concern, with the readymade garment sector accounting for about 81 percent of exports.

The report recommends key reforms within the government’s first 100 days, including improving macroeconomic coordination, adopting a market-based exchange rate and launching investment climate reforms to restore investor confidence and revive growth.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre, said the private sector must re-establish an independent and constructive voice in national policymaking following the political transition.

He noted that during the previous long period of authoritarian governance, many private sector bodies lost their independent voice and became extensions of political processes.

Dewan Hanif Mahmud, editor of The Daily Bonik Barta, said Bangladesh should conduct forensic audits of major state-owned institutions to understand the true condition of the economy.

He stressed that forensic audits should be carried out in key state entities, including banks and energy institutions, to determine their financial health and asset quality.

Kamran T Rahman said Bangladesh’s economic recovery remains fragile despite some easing of balance of payments pressure and inflation.

He warned that LDC graduation will bring new challenges, including reduced preferential market access, tougher compliance requirements and sharper global competition.

Habibullah N Karim, vice president of MCCI, and Farooq Ahmed, secretary general and CEO of MCCI, also spoke at the event.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules allowing foreign investors to repatriate proceeds up to Tk 100 crore from sales and share transfers without prior approval.

The central bank issued a circular on Sunday, saying banks can now independently process such repatriations if the fair value of the transaction is determined by an independent valuer using approved valuation methods.

Previously, banks could approve transactions of only up to Tk 10 crore, with most cases requiring central bank permission.

The relaxed rules apply to both state-owned and private companies that are not listed on stock exchanges.

The central bank said the move aims to simplify procedures and make the country a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

For deals where the transaction value does not exceed the net asset value (NAV) based on the latest audited financial statements, banks can approve repatriation regardless of the amount involved.

For smaller transactions of up to Tk 1 crore, investors no longer need to provide an independent valuation report.

To ensure proper oversight, the circular instructs banks to form internal committees to verify valuation reports and approve repatriation requests.

For small transactions, the committee must be led by the chief financial officer, while deals of up to Tk 100 crore require the chief executive officer’s leadership. Members with professional qualifications, such as CFA certification, must be included.

The circular also introduces procedural improvements to speed up transfers. Banks must complete repatriation within five working days if no discrepancies are found.

The overall share transfer process must be finalised within 45 days of signing the memorandum of understanding or receiving BB approval, whichever comes later.

Bangladesh has floated tenders to buy three more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market for April delivery in a desperate race to secure gas amid deepening turmoil in the Middle East.

State-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd (RPGCL) sought delivery of the LNG cargoes in three phases between April 5 and April 13, a move that came four days after the company floated tenders to buy two cargoes of gas for March 15-16 and March 18-19 deliveries.

Bangladesh had to buy two LNG cargoes from the spot market after failing to attract bidders for two consecutive days, although at more than double the normal rate.

The move comes amid uncertainty over the timely arrival of LNG shipments from Qatar, as shipping in the Gulf remains severely disrupted after Tehran threatened to "set fire" to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US-Israeli war with Iran continues for a tenth day.

Located between Oman and Iran, and connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, the strait is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.

Bangladesh meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 mmcfd, through imported LNG as domestic output continues to fall short.

The country also spends roughly $1 billion per year to import more than 60 lakh tonnes of petroleum and relies heavily on the Hormuz route. It sources most petroleum from the Middle East, and more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passed through this chokepoint.

The taka weakened sharply against the US dollar yesterday (8 March), snapping six months of exchange rate stability as demand for greenbacks rose to meet growing energy import bills amid the Middle East war.

In the inter-bank market, the dollar rose by as high as Tk0.25 in a single day to trade between Tk122.50 and Tk122.55 yesterday, compared with Tk122.30 on the last working day on Thursday, according to banking sources.

The sudden rise in the dollar price has raised concerns about further inflationary pressure. Consumer inflation already climbed over 9% in February, the highest level in the past 10 months.

Although the Bangladesh Bank had verbally instructed banks to keep the remittance exchange rate at a maximum of Tk122.45, most banks did not maintain the limit, according to industry insiders.

Energy crisis averted for now as more oil, gas on the way

Bankers say exchange houses had already raised remittance rates, forcing banks to buy more dollars from the market to meet growing energy import bills for the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation as global oil prices increased following the outbreak of the war.

In addition, remittance inflows from the Gulf countries have slowed since last week due to the ongoing war, further tightening the dollar supply in the market, several bankers said, wishing not to be named.

The Bangladesh Bank is likely to step in to sell dollars to retain rates if banks come up with demand, said a senior executive of the regulator.

He noted that the central bank has already stopped purchasing dollars from banks as a precautionary measure as the foreign exchange market shows signs of stress.

Despite yesterday's rise in the dollar price, no banks approached the regulator to buy dollars, he added.

During the current 2025-26 fiscal year, the central bank purchased about $5.4 billion from the market to prevent excessive appreciation of the taka amid weak import demand caused by sluggish business activity.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has also intervened in the market by selling dollars to stem losses in the Indian rupee, which recorded its steepest decline in more than a month, closing above Rs91.47 per dollar in the first week of March, according to media reports.

Recently, the Bangladesh Bank held discussions with economists to assess the potential impact of the war. Experts advised the central bank to allow some exchange rate adjustment in order to protect foreign exchange reserves.

According to the latest data, the country's foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.76 billion on 5 March, calculated under the methodology of the International Monetary Fund, which is sufficient to cover more than four months of import payments.

Banks will have to keep provisions for potential losses before loans turn bad, from January 2028, according to a directive given by Bangladesh Bank (BB), which aims to enable lenders to detect the risk of credit deterioration in advance and enhance transparency in financial reporting.

To identify potential loan losses, banks will be required to classify loans based on a global standard -- the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9). It specifies how an entity should classify and measure financial assets, financial liabilities and some contracts to buy or sell non-financial items.

In a circular yesterday, BB introduced guidelines for the loan loss framework based on IFRS 9.

Under the guidelines, banks will be required to apply the IFRS 9-based Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model to funded and non-funded credit facilities from January 1, 2028. The system will later be extended to other financial instruments from January 1, 2029.

Under the new framework, loans will be classified into three stages based on changes in credit risk: performing loans (Stage 1), loans with a significant increase in risk (Stage 2), and credit-impaired loans (Stage 3).

Provisions will be calculated based on either 12-month or lifetime expected credit losses, depending on the stage. A provision against loans is an expense set aside by banks from their earnings to cover anticipated losses from unpaid or defaulted loans.

The new rules will also extend provisioning requirements to off-balance-sheet exposures such as loan commitments, bank guarantees and unused credit lines, enabling banks to assess risks more comprehensively.

Currently, banks follow a rule-based loan classification and provisioning system, which relies on the “incurred-loss” approach -- where provisions are typically made after loans show clear signs of deterioration.

The IFRS 9 framework will shift the system to a forward-looking model, requiring banks to estimate potential credit losses in advance rather than waiting for borrowers to default.

Lenders will also have to account for macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, inflation and interest rate trends when assessing credit risk.

Banks will need to upgrade their data infrastructure and risk-modelling systems to implement the framework, while the central bank will provide regulatory guidance and supervisory support to ensure a smooth transition, central bank officials said.

Industry insiders said that the successful implementation of IFRS 9 would make the banking sector more resilient and attractive to foreign investors by strengthening international confidence.

Flourish Garments Bangladesh Co Ltd, a China (Hong Kong)-based company, will invest $15.34 million to set up a high-end garment manufacturing factory at the Bepza Economic Zone (Bepza EZ) in Mirsharai, Chattogram.

The factory will annually produce four million pieces of garments, including fleece jackets, soft-shell jackets, down jackets, cotton coats, leather jackets, underwear, T-shirts, polo shirts, shorts and parkas.

The product range will also include long pants, ski suits, ski pants, windproof jackets, fishing suits, hiking suits, yoga suits, running suits, jeans, knitted shorts, faux leather clothing, deer-skin velvet clothing, golf clothing and casual skirts.

The investment will create job opportunities for 1,988 Bangladeshi nationals.

Md Tanvir Hossain, executive director (investment promotion) of the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza), and Han Junxiao, managing director of Flourish Garments Bangladesh Co Ltd, signed the agreement at the Bepza Complex in Dhaka yesterday, according to a press release.

Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain, executive chairman of Bepza, attended the programme. Speaking at the signing ceremony, Hossain assured the company of Bepza’s full support to ensure smooth and successful business operations in the zone.

He noted that Bepza continues to expand its facilities and develop new zones to accommodate growing investor interest and further strengthen Bangladesh’s export-oriented industrial base.

The Bepza executive chairman also urged the new investor to encourage and attract more high-quality and responsible investors to Bepza zones, contributing to sustainable industrial growth and export diversification in Bangladesh.

Abdullah Al Mamun, member (engineering); ANM Foyzul Haque, member (finance); Samir Biswas, executive director (administration), and ASM Anwar Parvez, executive director (public relations), along with senior officials of Bepza and representatives of the company, were also present.

Country’s overall economic activity gained momentum in February, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 55.7, indicating a faster pace of expansion compared with the previous month.

The Bangladesh PMI February report, released on Sunday by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB), showed the index increased by 1.8 points from January.Bangladesh economic trends

The PMI is designed to provide timely insights into the country’s economic conditions to help businesses, investors and policymakers make informed decisions. The index was developed by MCCI and Policy Exchange Bangladesh with support from the UK Government and technical assistance from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management.

According to the report, stronger growth in agriculture, manufacturing and services drove the overall expansion, while the construction sector returned to contraction during the month.

The agriculture sector recorded its sixth consecutive month of expansion, with faster growth in new business and business activity. Input costs and order backlogs also returned to expansion, though employment in the sector continued to contract at a faster pace.

Manufacturing maintained expansion for the 18th straight month, with growth accelerating in February. Key indicators including new orders, factory output, imports, input prices and supplier deliveries remained in expansion. However, new exports, finished goods and employment continued to contract, while order backlogs reverted to contraction.

The construction sector slipped back into contraction after expanding in January. New business, employment and order backlogs declined, although construction activity and input costs showed expansion.Maps

Meanwhile, the services sector registered its 17th consecutive month of expansion, with faster growth across new business, business activity, employment, input costs and order backlogs.

The future business index pointed to continued expansion across all major sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services—indicating positive business expectations in the coming months.

Businesses surveyed in the report noted a degree of seasonal optimism ahead of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, which is expected to boost demand, particularly in services and retail. However, firms also highlighted persistent pressure from rising input costs, including raw materials, labour and utilities.

Dr M Masrur Reaz, Chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said the February PMI suggests a modest increase in economic activity, supported by stronger demand in agriculture and services linked to Ramadan-related consumption.

He also warned that escalating military tensions in the Middle East could pose downside risks to Bangladesh’s growth outlook.

Despite the seasonal boost in demand, the report noted that broader growth prospects remain constrained by persistent inflationary pressure, sector-specific challenges and external economic risks.

Bangladesh's import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from long-term contracts has become highly uncertain after all three suppliers invoked force majeure, a legal tool that allows them to suspend or delay contractual obligations in events beyond their control, amid the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

According to Petrobangla officials, the latest force majeure notice came from Oman-based OQ Trading Limited on 5 March, followed by the US-based Excelerate Energy the next day.

Earlier on 2 March, Bangladesh's largest LNG supplier QatarEnergy invoked the same.

Confirming the development, Petrobangla Chairman Md Arfanul Hoque on Saturday told TBS, "We are now looking for alternatives from the spot market to fill the window left vacant by the three suppliers."

With the three suppliers invoking force majeure, Bangladesh is set to lose all six LNG cargoes scheduled under long-term contracts for April, along with two additional deliveries from short-term arrangements.

Officials said the development could potentially block the supply of at least eight LNG cargoes from both long- and short-term contracts, leaving Bangladesh heavily dependent on the volatile spot market.

According to the import plan, three additional cargoes were supposed to be procured from the spot market in April too which means Bangladesh has a plan to procure 11 LNG cargoes in April.

All three suppliers interlinked

Petrobangla officials said once QatarEnergy – which is scheduled to supply around 40 LNG cargoes to Bangladesh in 2026 – invoked force majeure, similar moves by the other suppliers became almost inevitable as QatarEnergy accounts for around 20% of the world's seaborne LNG.

Officials added that supply arrangements from the other suppliers, OQ Trading (OQT) and Excelerate, are closely linked to deliveries tied to QatarEnergy under existing agreements.

While there is a provision to source LNG from alternative suppliers outside QatarEnergy if OQT and Excelerate can manage, the enforcement of force majeure effectively blocks this option.

Petrobangla said the force majeure imposed by OQ Trading will remain in effect until 8 April.

Petrobangla Chairman Arfanul said, "With the imposition of force majeure by OQ, Petrobangla will lose two cargoes scheduled for delivery on 3 and 8 April."

What was the April import plan

According to Petrobangla's earlier LNG import plan, 11 cargoes were scheduled to arrive in April. Of these, six were to come under long-term contracts, two under short-term, and three from the spot market.

Of the six long-term cargoes, three were to be supplied by QatarEnergy, one by QatarEnergy Trading, one by OQT, and one by Excelerate. Of these six cargoes, five were expected to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while one was to come from Angola.

Energy officials said that out of the six deliveries planned for April, four cargoes have already been confirmed cancelled following the invocation of force majeure by the suppliers.

Talking to TBS yesterday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is now stepping up efforts to import LNG from the spot market to maintain supply. "Bangladesh is also considering purchasing LNG through G2G arrangements under direct procurement."

Short-term supply also under threat

According to Petrobangla's plan for April, Bangladesh intended to import two cargoes under short-term contracts – one from OQ Trading and another from Saudi Aramco.

Officials said one of the cargoes originates from Qatar and normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz, while the origin and route of the other cargo have yet to be confirmed. As OQ Trading has invoked force majeure, supply from the company has become uncertain.

Besides, Bangladesh had planned to procure three cargoes from the spot market in April.

Volatile spot market now only hope

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and production disruptions reported at facilities operated by QatarEnergy, LNG supplies under long-term contracts have become uncertain.

To mitigate the disruption, the energy secretary said the government has already invited tenders to purchase LNG cargoes from the spot market for April delivery.

"We floated a tender on 8 March for four cargoes from the spot market. Bidders have been given two days until Tuesday to respond," said Secretary Saiful. "Apart from the spot market, we are also opening a window to purchase LNG on a G2G basis."

Officials from the Energy Division and Petrobangla warned that LNG availability in the spot market is tightening as major buyers such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India scramble for additional cargoes, pushing prices higher.

They said the situation could leave price-sensitive importers like Bangladesh, already under fiscal strain, particularly vulnerable to the ongoing volatility.

Earlier, Petrobangla floated a tender to buy two LNG cargoes for the March delivery window from the spot market, but the first attempt drew no bids.

In the second attempt, the agency secured one cargo at over $28 per MMBtu and another at around $24 per MMBtu, nearly 2.5 times higher than prices below $10 per MMBtu on 1 March.

According to the Asian spot LNG benchmark Platts JKM, prices stood at $10.73 per MMBtu on 27 February but surged to around $15.7 per MMBtu in the latest trading sessions.

Meanwhile, Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku yesterday said fuel reserves in Bangladesh have increased with the arrival of two fuel-laden ships, reports UNB.

"Once these two ships deliver fuel, our reserves will increase further," he said at a discussion programme. The minister said rising reserves do not mean fuel can be used in an uncontrolled manner. "We will continue rationing for as long as the war continues."

Prices of several food items in Khatunganj – one of the country's largest wholesale markets for essential commodities – have risen although stocks remain sufficient, and despite the fact those items had been imported before the Iran war began.

It takes around 45 days for soybean shipments from Latin America to reach Chattogram port. Yet following news of war in the Middle East on 1 March, the price of soybean oil in Khatunganj rose by up to Tk150 per maund.

This is despite the fact that 463,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil were imported during the first eight months of the current fiscal year. Although there are sufficient stocks, soybean oil has reportedly become scarce in retail markets in Dhaka and Chattogram a week after the war began, as unscrupulous traders allegedly manipulated the supply.

The price surge is not limited to soybean oil. Palm oil prices in Khatunganj have increased by up to Tk200 per maund, even though palm oil is imported from Malaysia and has no direct connection to the Middle East conflict. According to customs data, 1.038 million tonnes of palm oil were imported during the first eight months of the fiscal year.

Market insiders say there is no justification for prices to rise for goods that are already in stock due to the war. Even if prices were to increase, the impact would likely be felt only after two to three months. Experts blame the administration's inaction and unethical traders for the current volatility.

Dr Naeem Uddin Hasan Aurangzeb, a professor of economics at the University of Chittagong, told The Business Standard that the government has not yet increased fuel prices.

"If fuel prices increase, that may affect other commodities. But the conditions for the war to influence commodity prices have not yet arisen, and even if it does, it will take some time. In reality, dishonest traders are raising prices," he said.

Traders say prices in Khatunganj generally move in line with international markets – rising when global prices rise and falling when they fall. Although soybean prices fluctuate, mill owners sometimes reduce sales during uncertain periods such as wartime despite adequate stocks. They also note that the cost of imports depends heavily on international market prices.

According to traders, the war must end soon, otherwise it may affect the country's economy and foreign exchange reserves.

Market inquiries show that until the afternoon of 1 February, open refined palm oil was selling at Tk5,900 per maund. After news of an attack on Iran spread, the price rose to Tk6,000 in the evening. Although it fell slightly the following day, it later increased again by Tk200 and is now trading at around Tk6,200.

Similarly, wheat prices have risen to Tk1,300 per maund, around Tk150 higher than before. The price of open soybean oil has increased by Tk120 to Tk150 per maund and is now selling between Tk7,180 and Tk8,200. Sugar prices have also risen by Tk70 to Tk80 per maund to Tk3,470–Tk3,480.

Super oil prices have increased by Tk200 to Tk6,400. Drum bitumen is now selling for Tk15,000 compared to Tk12,000 previously. Raisins are selling at Tk780–Tk800 per kg, with prices rising by Tk100–Tk120 depending on quality. The biggest increase has been seen in the price of dried sour plums (tok alu), which have jumped from Tk300–Tk400 to Tk800–Tk1,000.

Prices of imported pulses and dry food products have also been trending upward, although they had begun to decline slightly in the wholesale market after the start of Ramadan.

Cumin is trading at Tk570–Tk580 per kg, cardamom at Tk4,200–Tk4,500, cinnamon at Tk355–Tk450, cloves at Tk1,300–Tk1,320 and black pepper at Tk1,020–Tk1,040. Nutmeg is selling at Tk720, mace at Tk2,700–Tk2,800, ginger at Tk100–Tk110 and onions at Tk25–Tk52 depending on quality. Chinese garlic is selling at Tk200 per kg while local garlic is priced at around Tk50.

Md Mohiuddin, general secretary of the Chaktai-Khatunganj Aratdar General Traders Welfare Association and an importer of consumer goods, told TBS that prices of a few items have increased but most commodities remain at normal levels.

"If the war in the Middle East becomes prolonged, it could affect the supply chain of consumer goods, creating a risk of price increases for all products," he said.

Consumer rights activists say some traders are using the war as an excuse to create instability in the market.

SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the central committee of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), told TBS that traders often look for an issue to raise prices.

"The war has provided them with such an excuse. There is no reason for such an immediate impact here because of the war. Only if there is a fuel shortage and transportation costs rise might there be an effect—but that is not the case now," he said.

He added that the administration has not taken any action on the issue.

"Even though there is a new government, no instructions have yet been issued from the ministries to the administration. The government must take a tougher stance," he said.

Overall inflation rose to its highest level in ten months in February, climbing to 9.13 percent from 8.58 percent in January, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics yesterday.

Economists say rising food prices ahead of Ramadan and election-related spending added to demand pressures, pushing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of the prices of a basket of goods and services, above 9 percent for the first time since May last year.

February also marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase since inflation touched a 39-month low of 8.17 percent in October.

Food inflation bore the brunt of the rise, jumping to 9.30 percent in February from 8.29 percent the previous month. Non-food inflation also edged higher, reaching 9.01 percent from 8.81 percent, reflecting continued pressure in housing, transport and healthcare.

Bangladesh has been struggling with persistent inflation for more than three years. The burden falls hardest on the poor and low-income households, who spend a disproportionate share of their earnings on food and have the least capacity to absorb price shocks.

Inflation moderated slightly in recent months, but the 12-month annual average rate remained above 8.5 percent in January even though Bangladesh Bank maintains a hawkish monetary policy stance aimed at curbing demand-driven price increases and stabilising the economy.

As part of its tightening measures, the central bank has kept the policy rate at 10 percent for nearly one and a half years.

In its latest monthly economic updates, the General Economic Division under the Planning Commission said the recent trend indicates continued pressure from food prices within the overall inflation framework.

Sectoral contribution analysis shows that food remains the largest contributor to headline inflation in January.

Food accounted for 43.06 percent of overall inflation in January, up from 40 percent in December. Fish and dry fish remained the highest contributors, although their share decreased from 43.34 percent to 32.27 percent, it said.

ELECTION SPENDING, SUPPLY PRESSURE

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, pointed to a convergence of February-specific factors. “We cannot look at this solely through the lens of monetary policy.”

Noting that urban food inflation rose the most, he explained, “part of this increase seems linked to election-related demand”.

Campaign spending, providing snacks at tea stalls or serving biryani, boosts the food component and contributes to higher prices, he said.

On the supply side, he noted, “A major disruption at the ports in February increased inflation expectations and hoarding tendencies.”

The economist also explained that combined with the lean season for food production -- the peak winter season has ended, but the spring harvest has not yet arrived -- this created a double burden on food prices.”

Hussain went on to point out that non-food inflation also rose, particularly in the miscellaneous category, which went from 21 to 24 percent. Understanding this category is key, as it recorded the highest inflation.

CONTRACTIONARY POLICY ESSENTIAL: ECONOMISTS

Regarding monetary policy, Hussain said, “Without the contractionary stance, the situation would have been even worse. The new governor had discussed reducing the policy rate, but that option has been postponed in light of recent challenges.”

With the Middle East conflict between Iran and US-Israel now threatening fuel and import costs, he warned the outlook was worsening.

“Now, with the war adding further pressure, it’s like rubbing salt on the wound. Inflation, growth, and employment are all under strain, and the situation ahead does not look positive from any perspective,” he said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist of the Policy Research Institute, also agrees that the central bank’s monetary policy stance is the right way to handle the situation.

“The twelve-month moving average clearly shows that inflation is on a downward trajectory, indicating that the current contractionary monetary stance is beginning to yield results,” he said.

“Bangladesh’s real policy rate, calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from the policy rate, stands at roughly 1.5 percent, one of the lowest in South Asia,” he added.

He cautioned that any premature easing risked reigniting inflation and undermining macroeconomic stability.

Md Deen Islam, a professor of economics at Dhaka University, echoed a similar tone on keeping monetary policy unchanged.

“The limited impact of higher policy rates largely reflects weak monetary transmission in the banking sector. Lending rates and credit flows often do not adjust fully to policy signals due to structural inefficiencies and high levels of non-performing loans.”

“Much of the recent inflation in Bangladesh has been driven by supply-side factors -- rising food prices, exchange rate depreciation, and higher import costs for fuel and essential commodities -- which monetary policy alone cannot easily control,” he noted.

He emphasised that addressing inflation effectively requires a broader policy mix that combines prudent monetary management with improvements in supply chains, enhanced market competition, exchange rate stability, and fiscal coordination.