US stock futures rose and the dollar wavered on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the Iran ceasefire, keeping sentiment buoyed, although with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, oil prices stayed near $100.

Trump's announcement appeared to be unilateral, and it was not immediately clear whether Iran, or US ally Israel, would agree to extend the ceasefire, which began two weeks ago.

Markets took the latest development in stride as investors weighed the extension with no signs of resumption in talks yet. Iran had rejected a second round of negotiations before Trump's announcement.

S&P futures EScv1 rose 0.4% while Nasdaq futures NQc1 gained 0.5%. European futures STXEc1 eased 0.3% pointing to a subdued open.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.7% after hitting a seven-week top on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei .N225, South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 and Taiwan stocks .TWII hit record highs on renewed AI wagers.

Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the earlier ceasefire was widely seen as indefinite so it was not surprising the latest announcement had not moved markets much.

"Obviously, any news on the re-opening of the Strait is a good candidate for the next big market flashpoint," Mathews added.

Hormuz remains key

After a sharp selloff in March due to the war in the Middle East, markets across the globe have swiftly rebounded this month and are back at pre-war levels as the prospect of a peace deal and the ceasefire spurred a risk-on rally.

That has also left the US dollar, which benefited from safe haven demand in March, on the back foot, giving up most of its war-induced gains.

"It appears markets were right to assume peak war uncertainty is behind us," said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at StoneX. "Risk seems likely to remain buoyant and dips viewed favourably by equity bulls. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already priced in."

Trump said he would continue the US Navy's blockade of Iran's ports and shores. Tehran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of the world's energy supply usually flows, causing a global energy shock.

Oil prices swung between gains and losses, with Brent crude futures LCOc1flat at $98.47 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures slipped 0.25% to $89.45 a barrel. O/R

While oil prices have come down from their March peaks they are still well above pre-war levels, worrying investors that elevated energy prices could quicken inflation and keep global rates higher for longer.

"We expect markets to remain volatile for now given the uncertainty with Hormuz and because the duration and scale of the crisis remain unclear," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.

Warsh senate appearance

Investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve chief nominee Kevin Warsh as he tried to assure US senators considering his confirmation to lead the central bank that he would act independently of the White House.

Warsh said he had made no promises to Trump about cutting rates and called for a new approach to controlling inflation and a communications overhaul that could discourage his colleagues from saying too much about the direction of monetary policy.

Separately, data on Tuesday showed US retail sales rose more than expected in March as the war with Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending elsewhere.

Retail sales in the United States soared past expectations in March, government data showed Tuesday, as gasoline prices surged on fallout from war in the Middle East.

Sales rose by 1.7 percent from the prior month to $752.1 billion, more than analysts expected -- its biggest jump in a year, Commerce Department data showed.

From a year ago, retail sales bounced 4.0 percent.

The acceleration came on the back of a 15.5 percent month-on-month increase in gasoline station sales, as energy costs climbed in March.

US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from February 28 triggered Tehran's retaliation in virtually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy transit.

Since then, oil and gas prices have surged, and gasoline costs have risen in the world's biggest economy as well.

Steeper costs -- which have added pressure on households and businesses -- have in turn fueled fears of a broader inflation uptick, and an impact on consumer demand and growth.

Excluding gasoline stations, overall retail sales were up by just 0.6 percent on a month-on-month basis.

"The war-driven spike in gas prices drove the surge in headline retail sales in March," said economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics.

Beyond that, however, sales were likely boosted by "this year's surge in income tax refunds," she added in a note.

She warned: "The tailwind from a blockbuster refund season will fade soon, causing households to cut back on discretionary spending as energy costs remain high."

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, expects that further resilience in consumer spending would depend on the health of the jobs market.

Among other categories, sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers picked up by 0.5 percent from a month ago, while those at food and beverage stores climbed by 0.7 percent.

The US-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused the biggest oil supply disruption on record by daily output lost, though at least one earlier shock had a greater cumulative impact, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency and US Department of Energy data.

The IEA said on Tuesday that the conflict is the worst energy crisis the world has faced, when combined with the tail end of the European gas crisis caused ​by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The scale of the disruption has revived comparisons with past energy shocks, from the 1973 Arab oil embargo to the Iranian Revolution and the 1991 Gulf War, while underscoring how ‌much global energy markets have changed.

A DIFFERENT KIND OF ENERGY SHOCK

Unlike earlier crises, the Iran war has simultaneously hit crude, natural gas, refined fuel and fertiliser supplies, exposing new vulnerabilities created by decades of rising demand, deeper global trade links and the Middle East’s expanded role as a supplier of finished fuels.

Earlier energy shocks of the 1970s caused lasting economic damage, weakened governments and remain etched in the memory of citizens in industrialised nations such as the United States, which faced months of fuel supply shortages and queues at the gas pumps.

The IEA was established in the wake of the Arab ​oil embargo to advise industrialised countries on energy supply and security. The IEA also manages its members' emergency oil stocks and has responded to the crisis by releasing a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to stabilise oil ​prices and offset lost Middle Eastern supply.

HOW DOES THE CURRENT DISRUPTION COMPARE BY SCALE?

The peak supply loss from the current crisis stands at more than 12 million barrels per day, the IEA ⁠said earlier this month. That is equivalent to 11.5 percent of global oil demand, which this year is expected to average around 104.3 million bpd.

The outright daily supply loss is larger than earlier peak supply losses of 4.5 million bpd during the 1973-74 Arab ​oil embargo and of 5.6 million bpd during the Iranian Revolution in 1978-79 combined, the IEA said. It is also higher than the estimated peak supply losses of 4.3 million bpd during the 1991 Gulf War, the IEA said.

The Iran war has also triggered ​the shutdown of roughly a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas production in Qatar. The world consumes much more gas than it did during the oil shocks of the 1970s-1990s. During the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution, the LNG industry was nascent. Qatar first exported LNG in 1996.

The current disruption also extends beyond crude and gas into fuel markets. The US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted millions of barrels per day of fuel production and exports from refineries in the Gulf, triggering shortages of jet fuel and diesel. Huge refineries built inside the Gulf in recent decades ​are key to global fuel supplies. They send jet fuel to Africa, Europe and Asia, for example.

HOW DO DURATION AND LOSSES COMPARE WITH PAST SHOCKS?

The International Energy Agency did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on how the current disruption ​compares with earlier energy shocks in terms of cumulative supply losses.

In the absence of official comparisons, Reuters assessed cumulative losses by calculating the scale and duration of major supply disruptions.

Based on that approach, the current conflict has lasted 52 days and removed an estimated 624 million barrels ‌from the market, ⁠assuming a loss of 12 million barrels per day over that period, according to Reuters calculations.

Even if a peace deal is reached quickly, supply disruptions are expected to persist for months and, in the case of gas, for years, pushing the final cumulative impact significantly higher.

The IEA says the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution resulted in a peak loss of 5.6 million bpd, smaller in scale than the current disruption. The revolution, however, led to a larger cumulative loss, according to Reuters calculations.

According to the US Department of Energy, the revolution caused an average drop of 3.9 million bpd in Iran's crude oil production from 1978 to 1981 - a loss of some 4.27 billion barrels over three years according to Reuters calculations - although the Energy Department says much of this loss was compensated by Iran's Gulf ​neighbours.

During this crisis, the countries with spare capacity - Saudi Arabia, the ​United Arab Emirates - have been unable to compensate - because ⁠they themselves have been hit by the halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil journalist and author Ian Seymour estimates Iran pumped an average of 3.1 million bpd during 1979 compared to 6 million bpd in late 1978 - resulting in a cumulative loss of over 1 billion barrels in 1979 alone.

During the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo, producers took three months to reach full production cuts ​of 4.5 million bpd. The embargo lasted from October 1973 to March 1974, resulting in around 530 million to 650 million barrels of lost production, according to Reuters calculations. That ​would mean the Arab oil embargo was ⁠comparable in its cumulative impact to the disruption caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

SHORTAGES IN ASIA, AFRICA

The current crisis has played out initially in shortages of supply to Asia and Africa. Top oil consumer the United States was much harder hit by the Arab oil embargo, which led to motorists enduring long lines for gasoline. The disruption lasted months and sparked an overhaul of energy policy and a rethinking of what constituted energy supply security.

The 1991 Gulf War, which disrupted oil output for four months according to a government document from ⁠IEA member Australia, resulted ​in a cumulative loss of at least 516 million barrels according to Reuters calculations assuming losses at 4.3 million bpd over that time, making the ​cumulative losses smaller than the current crisis and the Arab oil embargo.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a global energy crisis as European countries scrambled to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Russian oil output declined by 9 percent in April 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration, or roughly 1 million ​bpd and much smaller than the current disruption. Russia's output stabilised in later months as Moscow rerouted exports to counter Western sanctions, although in 2026 Ukrainian drone attacks are causing output cuts.

India's textile exports increased by 2.1 % from Rs 3,09,859.3 crore in Financial Year 2024–25 to Rs 3,16,334.9 crore in FY 2025–26 with readymade garments being the top contributor, official data released today (22 April) said.

RMG exports rose from Rs 1,35,427.6 crore in 2024-25 to Rs 1,39,349.6 crore in 2025-26, an increase of 2.9%.

Cotton yarn, fabrics, made-ups and handloom products recorded exports of Rs 1,02,399.7 crore in FY 2025–26 as against Rs 1,02,002.8 crore in FY 2024–25, a growth of 0.4%, said the Textile Ministry of India.

Man-made yarn, fabrics and made-ups posted a stronger growth of 3.6%, with exports increasing from Rs 41,196.0 crore to Rs 42,687.8 crore.

Among value-added segments, handicrafts, excluding handmade carpets, recorded the highest growth among major categories, rising by 6.1% from Rs 14,945.5 crore to Rs 15,855.1 crore.

Export growth was registered in more than 120 destinations during April 2025 to February 2026 over the corresponding period of the previous year, indicating broad-based geographical expansion in India's textile export basket.

A notable growth has been observed in markets like the UAE (22.3%), the UK (7.8%), Germany (9.9%), Spain (15.5%), Japan (20.6%), Egypt (38.3%), Nigeria (21.4%), Senegal (54.4%), and Sudan (205.6%).

Asian stocks fell and oil prices rose Thursday as the United States and Iran appeared no closer to holding fresh peace talks and Tehran continued to refuse to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Hopes that the two would meet for a second round of negotiations in Pakistan have dissipated, with the Islamic republic targeting three container ships in the waterway and citing Washington's blockade as its reason for keeping it closed.

Investors have spent most of the week upbeat that a breakthrough to end the seven-week conflict will be made soon, while healthy earnings and a resumption of the AI trade has also provided support.

Crude prices jumped as much as four percent in early Asian business after global security monitors and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Iranian forces had seized two ships and fired on a third in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has said vessels must seek permission to leave or enter the Gulf through the waterway, which in peacetime accounts for around a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports along with other vital commodities.

However, the White House said Donald Trump did not consider the move to be a ceasefire violation because the vessels are not American or Israeli.

Meanwhile, Iran's parliament speaker said the Islamic republic would not reopen the Strait as long as the US naval blockade remained, calling it a "blatant violation" of the two countries' ceasefire.

"A complete ceasefire only has meaning if it is not violated through a naval blockade... Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible amid a blatant violation of the ceasefire," speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X.

Still, Trump's Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said he "has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian proposal" for talks.

"Ultimately, the timeline will be dictated by the commander in chief," she told journalists.

Oil prices remained elevated, with Brent holding above $100 following a surge Wednesday, though they pared Thursday's initial gains.

Most equities fell, though, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore and Wellington all down.

But Seoul rallied more than one percent to a new record thanks to a fresh rally in the tech sector that has been the backbone of a surge in the Kospi index this year.

Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were also up.

"Whether it's conflict fatigue or confidence that the conflict between the US and Iran will be resolved soon, there is limited evidence that the rise in the oil price dampened bond and equity markets," said National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

However, she added that the Washington Post had reported a senior Defence Department warned it could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines and that such an operation would probably not unlikely start before the end of the war.

"It is questionable whether financial markets are correctly pricing the reality that supply constraints will remain an issue for some time," she wrote.

Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, of Bank J. Safra Sarasin, added: "Financial markets are pricing a high likelihood that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will soon normalise.

"Our game-theory model suggests that a narrow agreement to reopen the strait is in both parties' best interests. This outcome remains our base case. But it also reveals that a misreading of the other party's intentions could lead to a further ratcheting-up of tensions before we get there."

Investors took some heart from strong earnings reports, with South Korean chip titan SK hynix posting a nearly 400 percent jump in net profit that hit a record for January-March thanks to the artificial intelligence boom.

That came after Tesla announced forecast-topping first-quarter profits and Texas Instruments offered a healthy outlook.

Bloomberg said almost 80 percent of the S&P 500 firms that have reported first-quarter earnings had beaten analyst estimates so far.

Key figures at 0230 GMT

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7 percent at $93.65 a barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $102.47 a barrel
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 58,952.11 (break)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 25,926.59
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,100.38
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1710 from $1.1709 on Wednesday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3501 from $1.3506
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 159.41 yen from 159.49 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.73 pence from 86.70 pence

The European Commission will set out plans on Wednesday to cut electricity taxes and coordinate the summer refill of countries' gas storage, as it seeks to cushion the energy fallout from the Iran war.

Draft proposals seen by Reuters show the EU will, for now, avoid major market interventions such as capping gas prices or taxing energy companies' windfall profits - measures it used in 2022 when Russia cut gas supplies and prices hit record highs.

Instead, the Commission plans to curb EU tax rules to favour electricity over oil and gas, and make it easier for governments to cut industries' electricity taxes to zero, according to the drafts, which could still change before publication.

The EU would also step in to coordinate countries' efforts to fill gas storage in the coming months, and provide guidance on how governments should handle potential jet fuel shortages.

Europe's heavy reliance on oil and gas imports has left it exposed to spiralling prices since the Strait of Hormuz, a vital fuel shipping route, was effectively closed and Iran started attacking energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

Europe's benchmark gas price on Tuesday was roughly a third higher than before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February.

However, the EU's biggest oil and gas suppliers - the US and Norway - are outside the Middle East, and the Iran crisis has not yet triggered fuel shortages in Europe. Airlines have warned, though, that jet fuel shortages could emerge in weeks.

EU officials told Reuters the bloc's relatively restrained response reflects the fact that national governments, rather than Brussels, control many crisis-management levers, including subsidies and cutting national taxes and levies.

The Commission's plans outline non-binding ways for governments to provide "immediate relief", including requiring businesses to avoid air travel where possible.

Some officials said the response also reflects an assessment that the war-driven energy shock could last for months, making it prudent to hold back more extreme measures for now.

Elisabetta Cornago, assistant director at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz "may lead us to a worse shock regarding oil than in 2022, a similar gas shock, but I think a smaller shock on electricity prices".

That's because countries have significantly expanded renewable electricity since 2022, she said.

The EU produced 71% of its electricity from low-carbon sources, including renewables and nuclear, last year, up from around 60% in 2022, data from think tank Ember showed.

Ukraine has restarted pumping Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia after completing repairs to the Druzhba pipeline after it was damaged in a Russian attack in January, the three countries said Wednesday.

The pipeline has been at the centre of a standoff between Ukraine, the European Union, and Hungary and Slovakia — which still import Russian oil via the pipeline.

Kyiv hopes the resumption of supplies will unblock the last hurdle to securing tens of billions of euros in support from Brussels that has been held up by Hungary’s outgoing nationalist leader Viktor Orban.

Hours after Ukraine said oil had started flowing, EU officials gave preliminary approval for the long-stalled loan of 90 billion euros ($106 billion) to be disbursed.

‘Oil transit was launched and pumping began,’ an energy industry source in Ukraine told AFP.

Hungary and Slovakia confirmed transit had started and said supplies should start arriving Thursday.

Hungarian energy giant MOL said it ‘expects the first crude oil shipments following the restart of the Ukrainian section of the pipeline system to arrive in Hungary and Slovakia by tomorrow at the latest’.

Slovakia’s economy minister Denisa Sakova also said the first deliveries were expected in the early hours of Thursday, in a post on Facebook.

Hungary’s Orban had blocked the multibillion-euro loan for Ukraine as leverage to pressure Kyiv to resume oil deliveries, accusing it of stalling repairs.

His defeat in elections this month was seen as paving the way for the money to be unlocked.

Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, who has repeatedly clashed with Kyiv and Brussels, said Wednesday that he ‘would not be surprised if the 90 billion loan were unblocked and then oil supplies were cut off again’.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has made no secret of his opposition to the fact that some EU members still buy Russian oil and gas, a key source of revenue for Moscow to fund its invasion launched more than four years ago.

Oil prices were marginally lower today (23 April) after big gains in the previous session amid the stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States, and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell 15 cents to $101.76 a barrel, after settling above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks yesterday (23 April).

West Texas Intermediate futures fell 14 cents to $92.82. Both benchmarks closed more than $3 higher yesterday after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the US, and over the lack of progress on peace talks.

While US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries following a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the US are still restricting the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait carried about 20% of daily global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies until the war began at the end of February with attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.

Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway.

Trump has also maintained a US Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea, and Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire only made sense if the blockade was lifted.

The US military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said yesterday.

With his extension of the ceasefire on Tuesday (21 April), Trump again pulled back at the last moment from warnings to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges.

Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

Us exports set a record high

Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the United States climbed by 137,000 barrels per day to a record 12.88 million bpd as Asian and European countries bought up supplies after disruptions tied to the Iran war.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.2 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels, while analysts had expected a 1.5 million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels versus expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel drop.

In the rolling, wind-swept grasslands of Chifeng in northern China's Inner Mongolia, towering white wind turbines line hilltops like sentinels over a hydrogen industry Beijing is trying to prise away from coal.

They are part of a $2 billion project - the biggest of its kind - that harnesses renewable energy to run banks of electrolysers that produce the molecules needed for fertiliser, marine fuel and low-emission steelmaking.

India shares China's "green hydrogen" ambitions, but its commitments are even more concrete and aggressive. Backed by subsidies worth some $2.1 billion, New Delhi is targeting 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2030 - five times the current size of the global market and about double what analysts estimate Chinese output will be by then.

The massive bets by the world's two most populous nations come at the same time that the West has quietly backed away from its ambitious green hydrogen goals from the start of this decade after cost constraints proved stickier than anticipated.

What China and India have in common - despite very different motives - is the power and political will to force a market into existence, by underwriting projects, steering demand and pushing costs down through scale.

India has drawn private capital by pairing subsidies with offtake guarantees from refineries, fertiliser plants and steelmakers, making projects bankable from the outset.

The motivation is energy security. Hydrogen in India is overwhelmingly derived from imported natural gas, whose supply has suffered a sequence of shocks from the Middle East, Ukraine and the pandemic.

For China - able to deploy state-owned giants or attract private firms with large-scale, planning-led industrial projects - the aim is to preserve its dominance in hydrogen as the industry shifts towards cleaner energy.

In its five-year plan announced in March, Beijing listed green hydrogen alongside quantum computing, brain-computer interfaces and AI-enabled robotics as a frontier industry - an elevation in status that signals more capital will flow its way.

China: speed and scale

China invested $3.7 billion in green hydrogen production last year, more than double US levels, said Rystad Energy's head of hydrogen, Minh Khoi Le.

By 2031, China will have some 2.6 million tonnes per year online, representing $26 billion in investment, according to Rystad projections.

Much of 2025's outlay went into the Chifeng project, operated by Chinese wind turbine maker Envision Energy. It aims to sell green hydrogen and ammonia to markets in Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, and delivered its first green ammonia cargoes to South Korea's Lotte Fine Chemical in February.

"If we go back a year or two ago, China was not very visible on this situation of green hydrogen, and then two years later they have almost all the biggest projects in the world," said the International Energy Agency's hydrogen lead, Jose Bermudez.

China last year likely doubled its renewables-based hydrogen production capacity to 250,000 tonnes - more than half of the global total, and surpassing a 2022 target to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes annually by 2025 - said Agora Energy China managing director Kevin Tu.

In Inner Mongolia and other places with high winds and strong sunlight, costs can fall to around $2 per kilogram for green hydrogen, close to parity with coal-based hydrogen, Tu said. On average, producing green hydrogen in China costs around $4 per kilogram, he said.

India: aggregating domestic demand

India has brought the price of producing green hydrogen as low as 279 rupees (around $3) per kilogram, from around $5 in 2023, when the government launched the National Green Hydrogen Mission under the clean energy ministry.

Abhay Bakre, who heads the mission, told Reuters that the cost should drop to near $2 by 2032 as technology improves, processes become more efficient and more components are made domestically.

Projects will begin delivering "large quantities" of green hydrogen as soon as next year, he said, and "scale up very fast" to hit the target of 5 million tonnes by 2030.

Under the initiative, industrial heavyweights including Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Petroleum Corp, GAIL and JSW Steel produce about 8,000 tonnes of green hydrogen and its derivatives annually.

New Delhi is kick-starting demand through state-run reverse auctions, where sellers try to undercut each other to win long-term contracts, effectively revealing the lowest price producers can bear.

The government said last month that suppliers and fertiliser companies had signed offtake agreements for 724,000 tonnes of green ammonia, which could cover one third of the country's hydrogen requirements.

Maintaining momentum will require "bold, sector-specific domestic initiatives, coupled with strategic international partnerships to unlock export potential", analysts at the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis wrote in a report.

"With one of the lowest costs of renewable power generation in the world, India is well placed to capture a significant portion of the export market."

The conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is creating the ​worst energy crisis ever faced by the ‌world, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

"This is indeed the biggest crisis ​in history," Birol told France Inter ​radio in an interview broadcast on Tuesday.

"The ⁠crisis is already huge, if you combine ​the effects of the petrol crisis and the ​gas crisis with Russia," he added.

The war in the Middle East has choked up maritime traffic in ​the Strait of Hormuz, which is a ​conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied ‌natural ⁠gas flows.

It has also come on top of the effects of Russia's war with Ukraine, which had already severed Russian gas supplies to ​Europe.

Birol had ​said earlier ⁠this month that he viewed the current situation in global energy ​markets as worse than previous crises in ​1973, ⁠1979 and 2022 combined.

In March, the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of ⁠oil ​from strategic stockpiles to ​combat rising oil prices caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with ​Iran.

A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs, which the US Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so, launched Monday.

Importers and their brokers could begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 am, according to US Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.

It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.

Companies must submit declarations listing the goods on which they collectively put billions of dollars toward the import taxes the court struck down on February 20. If CBP approves a claim, it will take 60-90 days for a refund to be issued, the agency said.

The government expects to process refunds in phases, however, focusing first on more recent tariff payments. Any number of technical factors and procedural issues also could delay an importer’s application, so any reimbursements businesses plan to make likely would trickle down to consumers slowly.

The co-owner of a clothing company based in Washington, D.C., said the system seemed buggy on Monday when she tried to create an account on the portal, which was required before companies could do anything else. A lawyer in Northern Virginia said his clients reported some system delays and lag time.

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court found that Trump usurped Congress' tax-setting role last April when he set new import tax rates on products from almost every other country, citing the US trade deficit as a national emergency that warranted his invoking of a 1977 emergency powers law.

Although the court majority did not address refunds in its ruling, a judge at the US Court of International Trade determined last month that companies subjected to IEEPA tariffs were entitled to money back.

Not all taxed imports immediately eligible

Customs and Border Protection said in court filings that over 330,000 importers paid a total of about $166 billion on over 53 million shipments.

Not all of those orders qualify for the first phase of the refund system's rollout, which is limited to cases in which tariffs were estimated but not finalized or within 80 days of a final accounting.

To receive refunds, importers have to register for the CPB's electronic payment system. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had completed registration and were eligible for refunds totaling $127 billion, including interest, the agency said.

System requires accuracy

Meghann Supino, a partner at Ice Miller, said the law firm has advised clients to carefully list in their declarations all of the document numbers for forms that went to CBP to describe imported goods and their value.

“If there is an entry on that file that does not qualify, it may cause the entire entry to be rejected or that line item might be rejected by Customs,” she said.

Supino thinks the portal going live will require composure as well as diligence.

“Like any electronic online program that goes live with a lot of interest, I would expect that there might be some hiccups with the program on Monday,” she said.

“So, we continue to ask everyone to be patient, because we think that patience will pay off.”

Nghi Huynh, the partner-in-charge of transfer pricing at accounting and consulting firm Armanino, said most companies claiming refunds will have imported a mix of items, and not all will qualify right away.

“It’s about having a clear process in place and keeping track of what’s been submitted and what’s been paid, so nothing falls through the cracks,” she said. “Each file can include thousands of entries, but accuracy is critical, as submissions can be rejected if formatting or data is incorrect.”

Patience with the process

Small businesses have eagerly awaited the chance to apply for refunds. Rebecca Melsky, co-owner of the clothing brand and online store Princess Awesome, said she was unable to register for a portal account Monday despite trying to submit her CPB import code and company information using two different web browsers.

She said Princess Awesome would file for a refund eventually. The company imports some of its clothes from factories in Bangladesh, China, India and Peru. Melsky estimated it paid $32,000 in IEEPA tariffs.

“My expectations have been pretty low about whether we were actually going to see any money back to us,” she said.

“I’m heartened by the fact that there’s any system at all, but I’m only slightly more optimistic than I was last week, which was not very."

Justin Angotti, an associate attorney in the international trade practice of global law firm Reed Smith, said his clients ultimately had their declarations accepted Monday, even if it might have taken a few attempts.

“So far, Customs has been very responsive in trying to troubleshoot the issue,” Angotti said.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday while most stocks rose on lingering hopes for a deal to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Tehran said it had not decided whether to attend peace talks.

With the end of a two-week ceasefire approaching, the White House said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for fresh negotiations to end a conflict that has sent crude soaring and revived inflation fears.

However, the Islamic republic's position remained uncertain as it accused Washington of violating their fragile truce through its blockade of the country's ports and seizure of a ship.

Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.

But the commodity rebounded on Monday as Iran closed the waterway again, citing the blockade and seizure.

Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.

The US president said the blockade would not be lifted until an agreement had been reached.

"THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a 'DEAL,' is absolutely destroying Iran," Trump said on social media. "They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run."

He told PBS News that Iran was "supposed to be there" at the talks in Pakistan.

"We agreed to be there," he said, warning that if the ceasefire expired "then lots of bombs start going off".

He separately told Bloomberg News it was "highly unlikely" he would extend the truce.

Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight on Tuesday, Iran time, although in his comments to Bloomberg Trump said the end was Wednesday evening Washington time.

The Middle Eastern country's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "Trump wants to turn this negotiating table into a surrender table or justify renewed hostilities, as he sees fit".

"We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield," he wrote on X.

Still, investors remained largely upbeat that the two sides will eventually come to a deal that will reopen the strategic strait.

US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose more than one percent, while Brent was also higher.

Seoul led the equity market gains thanks to a resumption of the tech rally that had pushed the Kospi to multiple records before the war, while Tokyo and Taipei were also well up.

Hong Kong, Singapore and Manila also advanced, although Shanghai and Sydney fluctuated.

That came even after a down day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from Friday's record closes.

Asia had opened "with a gentle lean into risk as signs Iran may join talks with the US offer a pathway, however narrow, toward easing tensions ahead of the ceasefire deadline", wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"Markets are pricing the possibility of progress rather than its certainty," he said.

"Trump's remark that a ceasefire extension is 'highly unlikely' if no deal is reached has effectively put a clock on the market.

"However, traders recognize the playbook. Hard deadlines and firm rhetoric often soften as negotiations evolve, but the presence of a timeline still sharpens positioning and raises the stakes around each headline."

In company news, Japanese arms firms enjoyed healthy buying after Tokyo said on Tuesday it would ease decades-old export rules, paving the way for the sale of lethal weapons overseas.

The policy shift, which ends Tokyo's self-imposed restraint on the sale of lethal arms, comes as it seeks to enter the international arms market, hoping to bolster national defence as well as boost economic growth.

Fujitsu climbed 2.4 percent, NEC added 3.7 percent and Mitsubishi Electric was up 0.9 percent, while Mitsubishi Heavy gained 0.4 percent.

US President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks, although it was not clear on ​Wednesday if Iran or Israel, the US ally in the two-month war, would agree.

Trump said in a statement on social media the US had agreed to a request by Pakistani ‌mediators "to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal ... and discussions are concluded, one way or the other."

Pakistan's leaders have hosted peace talks in Islamabad to end a war that has killed thousands of people and shaken the global economy.

But even as he announced what appeared to be a unilateral ceasefire extension, Trump also said he would continue the US Navy's blockade of Iran's trade by ​sea, considered an act of war by Iran.

On my personal behalf and on behalf of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, I sincerely thank President Trump for graciously accepting our request to extend the ceasefire to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to take their course.

With the trust and confidence reposed in, Pakistan…
— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) April 21, 2026

There was no response early on Wednesday to Trump's announcement from senior Iranian officials, although some initial reactions from Tehran suggested Trump's comments were being treated ​skeptically.

Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said Iran had not asked for a ceasefire extension and repeated threats to break the US blockade ⁠by force. An adviser to Iran's lead negotiator, the speaker of parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said Trump's announcement carried little weight and may be a ploy.

Trump's wartime rhetoric has veered between extremes. In an ​expletive-filled threat against Iran only two weeks ago he promised that a "whole civilization will die tonight", while at other times has appeared keen to end the violence and market uncertainty.

With his announcement, Trump again pulled ​back at the last moment from his threats to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres and others have condemned those threats, noting international humanitarian law forbids attacks targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

NEXT PEACE TALKS UNCERTAIN

The US and Israel began the war on February 28 with aerial bombardments of Iran. The conflict quickly spread to Gulf states that host US military bases and to Lebanon once the Iran-allied militant group Hezbollah joined the fighting.

Israeli ​Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for decades sought to oust Iran's leadership, but Trump has given shifting and sometimes contradictory rationales for joining Israel to launch the war and how he foresees it ending, stirring confusion ​in global markets.

More than 5,000 civilians have been killed across the region and hundreds of thousands displaced so far, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and the war has led to the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a ‌vital chokepoint in ⁠global energy markets between Iran and Oman, sending oil prices soaring and fears that the global economy could enter a recession.

Iran has repeatedly exploited its ability to control the passage of oil tankers and other ships in the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks.

Trump said in his statement he was willing to extend the ceasefire because "the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so," a reference to US-Israeli assassinations of some of the country's leaders in the war's first weeks, including the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been succeeded by his son.

A few hours before his announcement, Trump had told ​the CNBC news channel that he was not inclined ​to continue the temporary truce and the ⁠US military was "raring to go."

Those comments came as tentatively scheduled peace talks in Islamabad seemed on the verge of falling apart: US Vice President JD Vance, whose presence has been requested by the Iranians, had planned to return to Pakistan on Tuesday.

Before Trump's latest announcement, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran's ​negotiators had been willing to attend another round of talks if the US abandoned a policy of pressure and threats, and rejected negotiations aimed ​at surrender.

Iran has condemned the ⁠US Navy intercepting and seizing two commercial Iranian ships at sea as part of its blockade, the second earlier on Tuesday, with its foreign ministry accusing the US of "piracy at sea and state terrorism." The US, joined by multiple other countries, has condemned Iran for impeding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

A first session of talks 10 days ago produced no agreement, with much of the focus on Iran's stockpiles of highly ⁠enriched uranium.

Trump wants ​to take the uranium out of Iran in order to prevent the country from enriching it further to the point ​where it could develop a nuclear weapon. Iran says it has only a peaceful civilian nuclear program and a sovereign right to continue that as a signatory of the nuclear weapons non-proliferation treaty.

Gold prices fell on Monday as the dollar firmed, while ‌news that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation fears.

Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $4,792.89 per ounce, as of 0730 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 13 earlier in ​the session.

US gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4 percent to $4,812.20.

“Gold prices are lower ​today after the US-Iran war ceasefire that markets celebrated last week appeared to be breaking down,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

That has revived ​the now-familiar ‘war trade’ dynamics we’ve seen since the beginning of the conflict. Crude oil prices ​gained, which echoed into inflation expectation and drove up both yields and the US dollar.”

The dollar index strengthened, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields gained 0.6 percent.

Oil prices ​jumped and stock markets wobbled as rising tension in the Middle East kept shipping in ​and out of the Gulf to a bare minimum.

The US has seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried ‌to run its blockade and Iran said it would retaliate, raising the possibility that the ceasefire between the two countries might not last for even the two days it is set to remain in force.

Tehran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that ​the US had hoped ​to kick off before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.

Gold prices have fallen about 8 since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, ​on concerns that higher energy prices could stoke inflation and keep ​global interest rates higher for longer.

While gold is considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates crimp demand for the non-yielding asset.

Meanwhile, gold demand during one of India’s key buying festivals stayed muted on Sunday as record ​prices curbed jewellery purchases, offsetting a modest uptick in ​investment demand.

Oil prices jumped more than 5% on Monday, on fears that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran could collapse after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely halted.

Brent crude futures advanced $5.08, or 5.62%, to $95.46 a barrel by 0418 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate was at $88.86 a barrel, up $5.01, or 5.97%.

Both contracts tumbled by 9% on Friday, their largest daily declines since 18 April, after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.

"Within 24 hours of Friday's 'completely open' announcement, there were already tankers that were fired upon by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading to more fears from the shippers on attempting to leave," said June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities.

"Market fundamentals are getting worse, as 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil remains shut in."

The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade while Iran said it would retaliate amid growing worries of a resumption of hostilities.

Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the US had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires this week.

The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then re-imposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

"Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to oscillating social media posts by the US and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion," Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee's head of research, said.

"The announcement of the Strait opening proved premature," Kavonic said.

"Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is real."

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilisers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since 1 March.

The US dollar rose ​to its highest level in a week against major currencies on Monday before paring gains as renewed US-Iran tensions and ‌fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal sent investors toward safe havens.

The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate, stoking fears about a resumption of hostilities.

Tehran also said it would not participate in a second ​round of negotiations that the US had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires on Tuesday.

“The weekend escalation ​revives the geopolitical risk premium just as markets had started pricing a peace dividend,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, adding that higher oil “is not just an energy story, it is a growth-and-rates story.”

The euro was last down ​0.05 percent at $1.1754 after hitting a one-week low of $1.1729 earlier in the session, while sterling was 0.15 percent lower at $1.3497. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.3 percent ​to $0.7145.

The dollar index , which measures the US currency against six peers, recouped some of its recent losses to rise to its highest in a week at 98.47, before dipping to trade at 98.34.

The index is down 1.55 percent in April. It had surged 2.3 percent in March on haven demand after the war broke out.

Analysts said ​the restrained moves in the currency markets, with the dollar giving back some of its early gains, pointed to lingering optimism that despite ​the setbacks over the weekend a resolution could still be on the cards.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said while the tone is risk-off to ‌start ⁠the week, the move so far “appears orderly rather than indicative of a major volatility shock.”

“Market participants understand that the path to a formal agreement was unlikely to be linear and remains vulnerable to sudden changes, so market players won’t be wholly surprised by a sentiment shift,” Weston said.

The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA), along with several other organisations, has urged the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the US government’s chief trade body, not to impose any new tariffs on countries currently under investigation over production capacity.

In a letter sent to the USTR on April 15, the AAFA warned that additional tariffs on supplying countries could raise costs for American consumers.

Last month, the USTR launched an investigation into 60 economies, including Bangladesh, over alleged failures to address issues related to production capacity and forced labour.

Bangladesh is scheduled to take part in a virtual USTR hearing on the matter on April 29.

The AAFA said in its letter that the US already imposes relatively high tariffs on textiles, apparel, footwear and accessories, even though these products contain significant US value, including intellectual property, raw materials such as leather, and textile inputs like yarns and fabrics.

As a result, textiles, apparel, footwear and travel goods face higher effective tariff rates than most other sectors.

The letter added that this burden disproportionately affects the industry, even though many of these goods are no longer produced in commercial quantities in the US.

It further said that although some countries identified in the investigation may run trade surpluses in certain product categories, these do not necessarily reflect structural excess capacity or practices that distort or restrict US commerce.

The concept of structural excess capacity does not reflect conditions in the US industry, it added.

Instead, the AAFA said, these trade flows are shaped by globally integrated supply chains, where production capacity is developed and used based on business decisions, long-term customer relationships and changing demand patterns.

The association urged the USTR to avoid any action that would further increase tariffs on these goods.

It also said the broad, multi-country investigation appears to be aimed at a pre-determined outcome rather than a focused review of specific practices.

The AAFA added that the investigation may be used to recreate tariff rates and structures that existed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

It also cited Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said, “We will get back to the same tariff level for the countries. It will be just in a less direct and slightly more convoluted manner.”

The association warned that this approach could weaken the government’s ability to properly investigate and address specific foreign trade barriers.

In conclusion, the letter said the industry should not face unintended negative impacts from these investigations. It warned against further tariffs on an already heavily taxed sector, saying such measures would raise costs for American families while doing little to boost domestic production due to existing capacity and investment limits.

BANGLADESH EXPORTS SHOW STRONG GROWTH IN US MARKET

For example, in 2025, clothing exports -- accounting for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s total exports to the US -- rose by 12.36 percent to 266.15 crore square metre equivalents (SME). In value terms, exports increased by 11.75 percent to $8.20 billion compared with 2024, according to the USTR.

Footwear exports from Bangladesh reached 1.78 crore pairs, a rise of 76.43 percent in 2025 compared with 2024. In value terms, footwear exports grew by 52.67 percent to $391.77 million.

Travel goods exports increased by 26.32 percent to 2.15 crore pieces in 2025. Their value also rose by 35.44 percent to $12.37 million, the USTR said.

In another letter, the Forced Labor Working Group (FLWG) of the AAFA, along with 17 other trade organisations, urged the USTR not to impose tariffs linked to forced labour investigations.

They said companies that have invested heavily in compliance systems and are working to eliminate forced labour in supply chains should not be penalised through broad tariff measures that do not distinguish between responsible firms and bad actors.

The letter added that, under Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ART) and related framework negotiations with the US, several economies -- including some covered by the investigation --have already committed to protecting labour rights and banning imports made with forced labour.

A consistent theme in global oil markets since the US and Israel attacked Iran is that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be short-lived, and therefore so will the disruption to the supply of crude and refined products.

That expectation has consistently been reflected in pricing for crude oil futures, which have risen sharply since ​the conflict began on February 28, but are still well short of the highs reached in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In effect, the paper crude market has believed ‌US President Donald Trump’s slew of social media posts since the bombing started that the conflict will be short, and result in Iran accepting US terms for a peace deal.

The problem is that the reality on the ground doesn’t match the social media claims, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more severe the energy crisis will become, especially in Asia.

Brent crude futures fell 9.1 percent on April 17 to end at $90.38 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s post that the Strait of Hormuz was fully ​open. But they jumped 6.9 percent in early Asian trade on Monday to $96.59 when it became clear the waterway was still closed.

The latest round of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would re-open began after a Trump social media post ​on April 17 that the waterway that carried as much as 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and refined product supply prior to the war was “fully open and ready for full passage.”

Trump’s assertion was even backed by elements within the Iranian government, but the optimism proved short-lived as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps moved to keep the strait closed, given Trump’s decision to maintain a US ​naval blockade of Iranian ports.

There are several questions that the market should be asking about the current situation.

Does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively being closed by the United States?

Would it re-open if Trump ended ​the blockade of Iranian ports?

Is there sufficient trust between the warring parties to accept a principle that the strait should be open to all?

Who is really in control in Iran, and are they willing to negotiate with a US administration that has a track record of abandoning agreements?

While these are issues for debate, the only fact that really matters is that the strait isn’t open and the risk of attack is likely to keep it that way for the hundreds of vessels waiting either side of the crucial waterway.

SUPPLY STRESS

In ​the meantime crude oil and refined product supply chains are becoming more stressed, especially in Asia, which was the destination for about 80 percent of all the shipments via the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict.

While crude futures have ​largely traded on the daily news flow and an underlying optimism that the conflict will be of a limited duration, physical oil and refined products have reflected a more dire near-term supply situation.

Refined products in the Asian trading hub of Singapore have ‌remained at extreme levels, with jet fuel ending at $204.13 a barrel on April 17, more than double the $93.45 close on February 27, the day before the war started.

Gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $145.27 a barrel on April 17, up 59 percent since the conflict started, although down from the record $199.89 hit on March 30.

The problem for Asia is that the worst of the supply crunch is probably still to come, as crude shipments into the region fall sharply.

Asia’s seaborne crude imports are estimated at 20.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 22.36 million bpd in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. However, both March and April are well down on the 26.76 million bpd average for the ​three months prior to the attacks on Iran.

The situation ​is especially worrying for countries that are major refining centres and exporters of fuels to the region.

Singapore’s crude imports are forecast at 388,000 bpd in April, down from 715,000 bpd in March and 980,000 bpd in January.

South Korea’s crude imports are estimated at 1.68 million bpd in April, down from 2.24 million bpd in March and 2.74 million bpd in January.

Japan’s April imports are expected to be ​921,000 bpd, a drop from 1.63 million bpd in March and 2.16 million bpd in January.

Only India is bucking the trend, with April imports estimated by Kpler ​at 4.67 million bpd, up from 4.45 million bpd in March, but below January’s 5.15 million bpd.

India has been able to secure Russian oil to help offset the loss of barrels from the Middle East, with 1.64 million bpd arriving in April, up from 1.06 million bpd in February.

Notwithstanding India’s success in sourcing crude from other producers, the problem is that Asia’s supplies are coming under strain and it’s likely that refinery processing rates will have to be cut in coming weeks.

It is when the supply of refined ⁠products becomes more ​constrained that the real economic impact of Trump’s war of choice will be felt.

The question for the paper crude oil market is how ​long can it maintain the hope that the conflict will be over soon, when the reality seems to be heading in the other direction?

Apple shares declined less than 1% in late trading on Monday after the communications hardware firm said its chief executive, Tim Cook, would step down after nearly 15 years at the helm of the world's second most-valuable company. The decision by Cook, 65 years old, to step aside in favour of longtime Apple hardware chief John Ternus took Wall Street by surprise and will raise questions about whether the new chief can maintain the brisk pace set by his predecessor.

Cook will become executive chairman on 1 September as the iPhone maker gears up for industry change spurred by artificial intelligence. He succeeded Apple founder Steve Jobs when he took over and turned the firm into a global brand that churns out hundreds of millions of units annually. He will give way to a company insider known for his focus on design and product.

Apple said of Cook:

"Under Cook's leadership Apple has grown from a market capitalisation of approximately $350 billion to $4 trillion, representing a more than 1,000% increase, and yearly revenue has nearly quadrupled, from $108 billion in fiscal year 2011 to more than $416 billion in fiscal year 2025. ... Apple operates over 500 retail stores and has more than doubled the number of countries in which its customers can visit an Apple Store. During his tenure, Apple has grown by more than 100,000 team members and increased its active installed base to more than 2.5 billion devices."

The decision will guarantee Apple's next quarterly report, due a week from Thursday on 30 April, will be even more closely watched than usual.

Comments:

RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY:

"Tim Cook did an amazing job. And I'm not surprised that the initial reaction is for the stock to be a little bit lower. But he will be executive chairman. I imagine he'll still be part of the larger strategy of the company.

"He has been an incredibly successful CEO coming into a situation that you thought would be hard to replace the person before. I hate to see him leave the CEO spot, as an investor."

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:

"He would never leave if the numbers were going to be bad, so I think that that's the important thing. They're about to report numbers, and you know they're going to be good. You know the guidance is going to be positive. And you know we're going to start hearing more about how they are going to use artificial intelligence to improve their products."

"He's been a transformational Apple CEO that's always had a steady hand at the wheel. I think that will be his legacy. He had massive shoes to step into, and he was the right person for the job. That's the way he'll be remembered."

TIM GHRISKEY, SENIOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST, INGALLS & SNYDER, NEW YORK:

"The company has done very well. And you know, its stock price, the value of the company, have increased dramatically. A lot of that is being in the right place at the right time, but I think they've made the right moves, and I think they've grown their user base.

"Earnings are upcoming, so he probably wanted to get it out there, so it didn't become an issue in the earnings."

JACOB BOURNE, ANALYST AT EMARKETER, NEW YORK:

"This transition shouldn't come as a shock, as Cook is at retirement age and Ternus has long been rumoured as the successor. Cook staying on as CEO through September before continuing as executive chairman should provide some degree of reassurance to investors even as markets react negatively to the near-term uncertainty.

"Cook successfully steered Apple through multiple periods of turbulence, and handing the reins over during another turbulent moment, which includes supply chain disruptions, tariffs and the AI race, is notable timing, though a fresh CEO also brings the opportunity for fresh solutions. Ternus' hardware engineering background signals that Apple's commitment to consumer hardware isn't going anywhere, even as the company works to close the gap on AI."

Oil prices rebounded more than 6% today (20 April) after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the US and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or 6.76%, to $96.49 a barrel by 2327 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, ⁠up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The US military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, US President Donald Trump said yesterday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump's threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

"Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to ⁠oscillating social media posts by the US and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion," Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee's head of research, said.

Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily declines since April 18 after ⁠Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.

"The announcement of ⁠the Strait opening proved premature," Kavonic said.

"Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is ⁠real."

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since 1 March.