Gold prices in Bangladesh have surged past the Tk250,000 mark per bhori yesterday (21 January), hitting an all-time high in the domestic market.

The Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk8,339 per bhori (11.664 grams), setting the new rate at Tk252,467, the highest ever recorded in the country.

In a notification issued at night, Bajus said the price adjustment was made in view of a rise in the local market price of pure gold (tejabi gold).

The new prices will come into effect from Thursday.

According to the revised rates, the price of 21-carat gold has been fixed at Tk240,978 per bhori, 18-carat gold at Tk206,569 per bhori, while gold under the traditional method will sell at Tk169,653 per bhori.

In addition to the selling price, buyers will have to pay a mandatory 5% VAT set by the government and a minimum 6% making charge fixed by Bajus.

However, making charges may vary depending on the design and quality of jewellery.

Bajus last revised gold prices on 20 January, when it increased the rate of 22-carat gold by Tk5,249 per bhori to Tk244,128 – then the highest price in Bangladesh's history.

With the latest adjustment, gold prices have been revised 10 times in the domestic market so far in 2026. Of these, prices were increased on eight occasions and reduced twice.

Silver prices also rise

Alongside gold, silver prices have also been increased. BAJUS raised the price of 22-carat silver by Tk292 per bhori to Tk6,882, marking the highest silver price ever in the country.

Under the new rates, 21-carat silver will sell at Tk6,532 per bhori, 18-carat silver at Tk5,599 per bhori, while silver under the traditional method has been fixed at Tk4,199 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted seven times in the local market, with prices increased five times and reduced twice.

US President Donald Trump abruptly stepped back on Wednesday from threats to impose tariffs as leverage to seize Greenland, ruled out the use of force and suggested a deal was in sight to end a dispute over the Danish territory that risked the deepest rupture in transatlantic relations in decades.

Traveling in Davos, Switzerland, Trump backed down, for now, from weeks of rhetoric that shook the NATO alliance and risked a new global trade war. Trump had threatened at the weekend to impose rising tariffs on eight European countries' US-bound exports.

But after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the Swiss Alpine resort, Trump said Western Arctic allies could forge a new deal over the strategic island territory of 57,000 people that satisfies his desire for a "Golden Dome" missile-defense system and access to critical minerals while blocking Russia and China's ambitions in the Arctic.

"It's a deal that everybody's very happy with," Trump told reporters. "It's a long-term deal. It's the ultimate long-term deal. It puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it pertains to security and to minerals."

"It's a deal that's forever," he added.

Rutte later said the issue of whether Greenland will remain with Denmark did not come up in his talks with Trump.

"That issue did not come up anymore in my conversations tonight with the president," Rutte said in an interview on Fox News' "Special Report with Bret Baier" show.

"He (Trump) is very much focused on what do we need to do to make sure that that huge Arctic region - where change is taking place at the moment, where the Chinese and the Russians are more and more active - how we can protect it."

Scolding, dismissive threats

Trump earlier in the day had delivered more than an hour of scolding and dismissive threats aimed at countries already unnerved by his push to seize territory from a longtime US NATO ally.

European diplomats said the president's sudden shift in tone doesn't resolve the dispute but helps defuse an open rift between allies as they work to sort out their differences in private.

It remained unclear what kind of agreement could meet Trump's demands for outright "ownership" of a territory that its residents and leaders have said is not for sale.

"Negotiations between Denmark, Greenland, and the United States will go forward aimed at ensuring that Russia and China never gain a foothold - economically or militarily - in Greenland," a NATO spokesperson said.

No date or venue was provided for such negotiations. Trump said he had tasked Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff to take part in further discussions.

"What happens in Greenland is of absolutely no consequence to us," said Russian President Vladimir Putin, quoted by Russian news agencies speaking to the country's National Security Council.

Respect for Danish sovereignty, Greenland crucial: Denmark

Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the US and NATO had "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region," and that "based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on 1 February."

It was the latest in a series of reversals of major policies or threats by Trump ahead of deadlines he has imposed during his second term in office.

Denmark said the issue should be handled through private diplomacy rather than on social media.

"What is crucial for us is that we get to end this with respect for the integrity and sovereignty of the kingdom (of Denmark) and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination," Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told public broadcaster DR.

Rasmussen said he had spoken with Rutte but declined to provide details on what had been agreed.

Greenland's government did not reply to a request for comment.

Earlier in the day, the Republican US president acknowledged financial markets' discomfort with his threats and ruled out force in a speech to global elites at the World Economic Forum annual meeting.

"People thought I would use force, but I don't have to use force," Trump said. "I don't want to use force. I won't use force."

The change in posture sparked buying on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index posted its biggest one-day percentage gain in two months, adding 1.16% for the day. Trump's more hawkish comments on Greenland on Tuesday helped deliver the sharpest equities selloff in three months.

Trump dominates Davos agenda

Trump's Greenland comments dominated a whirlwind trip to Davos. Emboldened after a year in office that saw major institutions and allies bend to his will, Trump chastised Europeans on their soil on issues ranging from wind power and the environment to immigration and geopolitics.

He cast himself as a defender of Western values. "We want strong allies, not seriously weakened ones," Trump said. "I love Europe and I want to see Europe go good, but it's not heading in the right direction."

While he took the threat of force off the table for Greenland, Trump bragged about US military might, citing recent operations such as the shock ousting of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.

Calling Denmark "ungrateful," the Republican US president played down the territorial dispute as a "small ask" over a "piece of ice" and said an acquisition would be no threat to the NATO alliance, which includes Denmark and the United States.

"No nation or group of nations is in any position to be able to secure Greenland other than the United States," said Trump, who four times during the speech mistakenly referred to Greenland as Iceland, another NATO member state.

"You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember."

Trump also used his speech to settle scores on other grievances. He rounded on Britain over extracting insufficient oil from the North Sea, Switzerland over its trade surplus in goods with the US, France over its pharmaceutical policy, Canada for what he saw as its ingratitude and NATO for its unwillingness to conform to US interests.

His remarks drew uncomfortable looks and light laughter from the audience in Davos, but most were silent.

His speech did notably less to address Trump's top domestic political challenge, the low marks voters give his handling of cost-of-living issues.

Though his aides had previewed an economic message, Trump was nearly an hour into the speech before he raised his newer initiatives to lower housing costs.

Sources familiar with the situation have previously told Reuters that Trump's push on Greenland is related to a legacy-building desire to expand the territory of the United States in the biggest way since Alaska and Hawaii became states in 1959.

On Thursday, Trump was expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. As part of the trip, Trump was working to build support from dozens of world leaders to join his Board of Peace initiative aimed at resolving global conflicts, even as diplomats say it could harm the

Bangladesh's Summit Group is stepping into the country's data centre market while continuing to pursue its growing LNG projects, as the nation's demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to remain strong.

In interviews with Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Summit Group Chairman Muhammed Aziz Khan discussed the company's plans to leverage its existing power capacity and infrastructure to expand into data centres and LNG.

"Bangladesh and Summit are uniquely positioned with excess electricity capacity for the next few years. We would like to be a pioneer in this global AI race," Khan said.

He noted that the country's recently enacted Personal Data Protection Ordinance, 2025, is also expected to stimulate demand for domestic data centres.

The group intends to utilise its subsidiary, Summit Technopolis Hi Tech Park, or vacant land alongside its power plants and the river, to build its first large-scale facility in Dhaka, Khan said.

"Data centres are challenged primarily by the lack of electricity. We can, with the requisite government permissions, give electricity quickly," he added.

Summit currently has approximately 350 megawatts of capacity that could be dedicated to data centres, positioning it as a hyperscaler, according to Khan. The company is also laying optical fibres from Bangladesh to Singapore, although the work has experienced slight delays due to regulatory hurdles.

"However, we are hopeful of overcoming those challenges. Subject to government permissions, Summit can build its first data centre in about 18 months," Khan said.

He expressed openness to strategic partners who bring marketing expertise for its data centres. The company is also exploring opportunities to import green electricity from countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

LNG impetus

"I continue to believe that LNG and its related infrastructure are essential for the country's growth," Khan said.

He added that the newly elected government, following the upcoming national elections expected in February, will likely implement more structural reforms for Bangladesh's infrastructure and development over a longer time horizon.

Bangladesh's LNG imports are projected to reach 7.2 million metric tons per annum in 2026, up from an estimated 6.8 million mt/year in 2025, according to Khan. The country's LNG imports could climb to 15 million mt/year in the coming years alongside 6%-7% GDP growth, he said.

Khan highlighted Bangladesh's trade advantages despite international challenges. "The US imposed a 20% reciprocal tariff on many Bangladeshi goods last year. However, Bangladesh's lower tariffs compared to some neighbouring countries give it an edge over other competitors."

He added that the foreign currency situation is expected to continue improving with the country's economic growth.

Domestic gas production in Bangladesh peaked at 2.6 Bcf/d in 2018 but has steadily declined, averaging a 5% annual reduction to 2 Bcf/d by 2024, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts in a December 2025 report. In H1 2025, production fell further to 1.8 Bcf/d, a 7% decrease from the total for 2024. The analysts noted that limited exploration and production contributed to the decline, partially driving the anticipated growth in LNG imports.

Khan also commented on international LNG prices, saying they are expected to be volatile in the coming months.

"Prices are set to rise substantially in the short-medium run if tensions escalate in Iran. However, in the longer term, prices will be pressured by supply waves from the US and Qatar as well as by optimism about global geopolitics," he said.

Platts assessed the March JKM, the benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, at $10.334/MMBtu on 16 January, up 3.5% from 15 January.

Growth pathway

Summit Group had planned to build Bangladesh's first onshore LNG terminal at Matarbari Island in the Bay of Bengal on a build, own, operate, and transfer basis. However, the project has been delayed due to the abolition of the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provisions) Act, 2010, which was repealed by the government in 2024, Khan said.

The onshore terminal could proceed either through an international tender or a government-to-government contract.

"So, if an international tender is launched, we will participate in it. But if it is a G2G contract, then we will only be able to receive services from the terminal owned by the government of Bangladesh," Khan said.

Bangladesh is also considering converting around 30,000 Mcf/d of unutilised natural gas from the gas-rich Bhola island into LNG and delivering it to gas-starved industries on the mainland. When asked whether Summit would participate, Khan said that doing so would require a transportation facility rather than infrastructure for gas use, and that Summit was not keen to pursue it.

Retail broiler sellers in Bangladesh earn more than Tk7 per kg after covering operating costs, significantly higher than the profit margins earned by wholesalers, according to a Bangladesh Bank survey published today (21 January).

The survey found that retail sellers make an average profit of Tk12 per kg on broiler chicken, with a selling price of Tk137 per kg. In comparison, wholesalers earn an average profit of only Tk5 per kg at the same selling price.

The survey team visited 61 upazilas across 18 districts to examine five key agricultural commodities—rice, potatoes, onions, broiler chicken, and eggs between 15 June and 7 July 2025. Later, data was collected from large corporate companies, including Paragon, Nourish, ACI, and Akij, at their head offices in July and early August 2025.

The report details the cost and price dynamics, seasonal factors, and underlying reasons behind price changes. For example, the retail price of coarse rice rose to Tk61 per kg during the surveyed period, up from Tk55 last year, reflecting a 10.9% increase. The cost of production increased by 35%, driven by higher labor wages and greater use of fertilisers and pesticides.

Cultivated paddy land decreased by 0.31%, as some farmers shifted to more profitable crops such as potatoes, onions, maize, and mustard. Late paddy varieties, coupled with monsoon-related disruptions, also contributed to a 1.91% reduction in yield and higher labor costs.

Potato production increased due to expanded cultivation, but limited storage forced farmers to sell early at lower prices. Onions were surveyed in Pabna, Faridpur, Rajbari, and Rajshahi districts producing 55.1% of the country's onions. Among 115 respondents, including 66 farmers, 22 beparis, 16 aratdars, and 11 retailers in Dhaka, the average production cost was Tk33 per kg, with a selling price of Tk43 per kg, yielding a gross margin of roughly 30%.

Egg production was surveyed in Gazipur, Narshingdi, Cox's Bazar, and Chattogram, covering farmers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers.

The survey findings were presented at a briefing at the Bangladesh Bank headquarters on Wednesday, attended by Chief Economist Akhtar Hossain, Spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan, and other senior officials. The report also offers an outlook on these commodities in the near future and provides policy recommendations based on the survey's findings.

The Bangladesh Bank plans to merge all nine state-owned banks into two large banks, citing the size of Bangladesh's economy and the need to improve governance and address long-standing mismanagement in the sector, Governor Ahsan H Mansur said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a discussion at Jagannath University in Dhaka, the governor said Bangladesh currently has 61 banks—far more than the economy requires.

"In Bangladesh's context, 10 to 15 banks are sufficient," he said, adding that the country needs a smaller number of large banks rather than many small ones. "Reducing the number of banks would make it easier to ensure good governance."

Later, speaking to The Business Standard, Mansur cited India as an example, noting that the neighbouring country has decided to reduce the number of state-owned banks to four despite having an economy more than 10 times larger than Bangladesh's.

He also pointed to Singapore-based DBS Bank, which has assets of around $1.2 trillion—equivalent to nearly Tk130 lakh crore—while the combined size of Bangladesh's entire banking sector stands at about Tk20 lakh crore.

"Although Singapore's economy is similar in size to Bangladesh's, its financial sector is 20 times larger," he said. "Despite that, Singapore has only a few banks, but all of them are very large."

State-owned banks to be consolidated

Bangladesh currently has nine state-owned banks: four commercial banks—Sonali, Agrani, Rupali and Janata; two development banks—BASIC and Bangladesh Development Bank; and three specialised banks—Bangladesh Krishi Bank, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank and Probashi Kallyan Bank.

The governor revealed the state-bank merger plan as the central bank moves ahead with wider restructuring of the financial sector, following the merger of five private Islamic banks and the initiation of liquidation proceedings against nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).

Mansur said mismanagement, irregularities, nepotism and weak governance had severely weakened the banking sector, resulting in losses of nearly Tk3 lakh crore, a significant portion of which may have been laundered abroad.

He alleged that $20–25 billion may have been siphoned off through nepotistic channels while speaking at the event titled "Banking Sector: Current Challenges and Future Prospects."

Economists back consolidation

Commenting on the plan, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said the merger of state-owned banks was long overdue.

"There is no question about the desirability of consolidation," he said, adding that the Bangladesh Bank now needs a clear roadmap on how the mergers will be carried out.

Hussain, who is also a member of the banking sector reform task force formed after the regime change, said state-owned banks have failed to move away from a bureaucratic model and remain vulnerable to political influence.

"All the large loan scams we know of during the previous regime occurred in state-owned banks," he said.

Repeated government recapitalisation has placed a heavy burden on taxpayers, and bringing the banks under one umbrella is the right decision, he added.

He noted that Sonali Bank, the largest state-owned lender, plays a key role in treasury operations and social welfare programmes through its extensive branch network. "However, nine state-owned banks are unnecessary for delivering such programmes," he said.

Recent restructuring

The Bangladesh Bank has already merged five troubled Islamic banks – First Security Islami, Global Islami, Social Islami, Exim, and Bank – and formed a new bank named Sammilito Islami Bank.

The government is required to provide Tk20,000 crore for the five merged banks, of which Tk10,000 crore has already been disbursed.
The Bangladesh Bank also started to liquidate nine non-bank financial institutions for which the government will provide Tk5,000 crore to pay back individual depositors' money.

The nine NBFIs slated for liquidation are FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing.

Meanwhile, the central bank also plans to create a dedicated "resolution fund" of up to Tk40,000 crore to rescue and restructure failing banks without relying on taxpayer-funded government bailouts.

Overbanking and weak balance sheets

World Bank data show that Bangladesh's GDP in 2023 stood at $323.28 billion (at constant 2015 prices), supported by 61 banks. By comparison, Pakistan—with a GDP of $400.17 billion—had 41 banks, while India, with a $3.2 trillion economy, operated with just 33 banks.

The data underline concerns that Bangladesh is significantly overbanked, while peer countries have expanded branch networks of large banks rather than multiplying the number of institutions.

Despite years of government support, the financial health of state-owned banks remains fragile. Between 2009 and 2024, more than Tk25,000 crore was injected into these banks to keep them afloat.

BASIC Bank's default loan ratio now exceeds 70%, while Janata Bank's stands at over 73%. As of December 2024, Agrani, Janata, BASIC and Rupali banks reported a combined capital shortfall of Tk31,000 crore, with the Bangladesh Bank rejecting their five-year recovery plans as "unrealistic".

Sonali Bank and Bangladesh Development Bank also faced a provisioning shortfall of Tk4,763 crore, although regulatory forbearance allowed them to report a modest capital surplus.

Bangladesh Bank has revised its earlier decision on profit payments by Sammilito Islami Bank, allowing only individual depositors to receive a 4% return on their deposits for 2024 and 2025.

However, the benefit will not apply to institutional depositors. The decision was conveyed by the Bank Resolution Department in a letter sent yesterday to the administrators of five Islamic banks.

Depositors of 5 Islamic banks won't receive profit for 2024–2025: Governor

The letter instructs that profit at an annual rate of 4%, based on the bank rate, be paid on term and scheme-based deposits from 1 January 2024 to 28 December 2025.

The move reverses Bangladesh Bank's earlier position taken this month, when it ruled that depositors of the troubled banks would receive no profit for the two years due to weak financial conditions.

Last year, Bangladesh Bank finalised the Bank Resolution Scheme 2025 for the newly formed Sammilito Islami Bank PLC, created by merging the five crisis-hit Shariah-based banks. The scheme outlines specific steps and timelines for repaying depositors' funds as part of the resolution process.

The commerce ministry may backtrack on a plan to withdraw bonded facilities and impose duties on yarn imports amid a standoff between the government and garment exporters over the issue, industry insiders say.

After industry leaders flagged the potential blow to export competitiveness, officials are signalling a possible rethink, suggesting that the matter may now be examined by independent economists rather than enforced immediately.

This came after a meeting yesterday between top representatives of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) with Commerce Adviser SK Bashir Uddin.

"The adviser has understood our concerns. He will review all the data and re-evaluate the issue," said Faisal Samad, a BGMEA director.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem added, "We are more or less confident that the initiative will not go ahead. The issue will be analysed by three independent economists before a final decision is taken."

The dialogue, however, has not bridged all divides. Textile millers, represented by the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), met separately with the finance adviser without success.

"Despite understanding the situation, they are choosing not to acknowledge it," said BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell.

Bangladesh imports around $2.4 billion of yarn annually, mostly from India, where incentives allow a cheaper supply than local mills can match. Spinning mill owners have struggled with underused capacity and mounting stockpiles, with nearly 100 mills partially or fully shut down.

Entrepreneurs in the sector – representing investments of about $23 billion – have sought urgent government intervention to survive.

Garment exporters warn that duties could increase knitwear production costs by 8-10%, translating into $2.4 billion in annual extra expenses, threatening the country's $28 billion knitwear export sector. Textile mill owners argue that open-costing agreements with buyers could absorb some of the increase, but exporters contend that higher prices risk lost contracts and market share

The government's proposed ban on importing day-old broiler and layer chicks under the Poultry Development Policy 2026 has triggered growing concern among poultry producers, who fear the move could disrupt supply chains and push up prices if implemented without transitional safeguards.

The final draft of the policy has already been published on the government website for public feedback and is expected to be placed before the cabinet for approval soon, according to officials familiar with the process.

The policy marks a significant shift in how the state intends to manage the poultry sector, formally recognising it as a strategic food security industry.

While policymakers argue that the move will strengthen domestic capacity and reduce import dependence in the long run, industry stakeholders caution that the proposed import ban, if implemented abruptly, could destabilise supply chains and create fresh volatility in prices.

Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association President Mosharraf Hossain Chowdhury stressed that policy decisions must prioritise farmers. "Poultry is not just a business; it is central to food security. Any decision must ensure that farmers receive chicks on time and at fair prices," he told TBS.

Self-reliance and regulation

According to the draft, the Poultry Development Policy 2026 prioritises expanding local production capacity, improving disease control, strengthening biosecurity, ensuring quality feed and hatchery management, and gradually reducing reliance on imports. The policy also aims to bring greater discipline to the sector through stronger monitoring and enforcement.

One of its most debated provisions proposes a total ban on importing day-old broiler and layer chicks, a move the government says is intended to encourage investment in domestic breeder farms and hatcheries.

The policy also outlines plans to introduce a centralised database and traceability system for poultry disease control, allowing authorities to track production, movement, and biosecurity compliance across the supply chain.

In addition, the draft mandates strict action against low-quality hatcheries and farms, arguing that inconsistent quality and weak compliance have contributed to production inefficiencies, disease outbreaks, and farmer losses.

As the Poultry Development Policy 2026 moves towards cabinet approval, it reflects the government's ambition to build a self-reliant poultry sector through regulation, quality control, and domestic investment. Yet industry stakeholders argue that without careful sequencing and transitional safeguards, the policy risks undermining short-term supply stability.

The challenge now lies in aligning long-term policy goals with current market constraints, a balance that will ultimately determine whether the new framework strengthens food security or introduces new volatility into one of Bangladesh's most critical protein sectors

Government officials maintain that these measures are essential for building a more resilient and organised poultry industry. "The draft has been prepared to ensure overall sectoral development, while also protecting investors," said ABM Khaleduzzaman, director (production) at the Department of Livestock Services. "Once implemented, the policy will help the poultry sector become stronger and more sustainable."

Industry concerns over timing and capacity

Despite these assurances, poultry entrepreneurs argue that the policy underestimates current market realities. Bangladesh currently requires around 700-800 crore broiler and layer chicks annually, of which domestic hatcheries supply approximately 75-80%. The remaining 20-25 percent is met through imports, which industry players describe as a critical buffer during supply disruptions.

Stakeholders say they raised these concerns during multiple consultations held before finalising the draft, including meetings attended by the fisheries and livestock adviser. While participants reportedly urged caution in imposing an outright ban, citing food security and consumer interest, the provision remained in the final draft, prompting frustration among industry bodies.

A senior leader of the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Central Council warned that domestic capacity, though expanding, is not yet sufficient to absorb a sudden ban.

"If imports are stopped now, shortages will emerge. That will push up chick prices, reduce production, and eventually raise chicken and egg prices for consumers," he said.

Day-old chick production in Bangladesh is heavily concentrated among a handful of large corporate groups, including Kazi Farms Group, Aftab Group, Navana Group, Paragon Group, CP Bangladesh, Beximco Agro, and Diamond Hatchery. Industry estimates suggest these players collectively control around 70-80% of total domestic production.

However, much of this output is consumed internally through vertically integrated operations, contract farming arrangements, or group-linked farms. As a result, effective buffer capacity for the open market remains limited, leaving independent and small farmers vulnerable during supply shocks.

Price volatility and policy trade-offs

Data from poultry associations show that Bangladesh produces roughly 20 lakh broiler chicks per day, with production costs ranging between Tk28 and Tk30 per chick. Yet during shortages, farmers report paying Tk48-Tk50, eroding profitability and forcing many marginal producers out of the market.

Critics argue that maintaining limited import flexibility during crisis periods helps prevent price manipulation and protects competition. They also point to risks associated with breeder and grandparent stock imports, approvals for which can take six to eight months, potentially creating supply gaps if planning assumptions fail.

Experts have echoed calls for a phased or conditional approach. Professor Md Bahanur Rahman, dean of the Faculty of Veterinary Science at Bangladesh Agricultural University, said policymakers must realistically assess domestic capacity before enforcing a ban.

"We need to ensure not only production capability, but also a consistent, affordable supply to farmers," he noted.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) began hearings yesterday with the top executives of nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) to determine whether there are grounds to oppose their planned liquidation.

The central bank had earlier sent letters asking the NBFIs to attend hearings scheduled yesterday and today at its Dhaka headquarters. Representatives from five finance companies attended yesterday’s session.

At the hearings, NBFIs are required to explain why they should not be liquidated, while BB officials present the case for winding them up, according to central bank officials familiar with the matter.

The nine NBFIs facing liquidation are FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

In November last year, the BB board approved the liquidation of the institutions under the newly framed Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, the country’s first comprehensive framework for resolving failing banks and NBFIs.

The ordinance outlines procedures for merging, restructuring or closing distressed institutions and sets out the hierarchy for repaying creditors after assets are sold.

Together, the nine institutions account for 52 percent, or Tk 25,089 crore, of total defaulted loans in the NBFI sector as of the end of 2024.

BB data show that as of September 2025, the country’s 35 NBFIs held Tk 29,408.66 crore in non-performing loans (NPLs), equivalent to 37.11 percent of their total disbursed loans of Tk 79,251.11 crore. The sector’s NPL ratio was 35.52 percent a year earlier.

Industry insiders attribute the surge in defaults to large-scale irregularities and scams during the previous government.

For instance, according to a BB probe, PK Halder, former managing director of NRB Global Bank (later Global Islami Bank), allegedly embezzled at least Tk 3,500 crore from four NBFIs – People’s Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, and BIFC.

These institutions are now severely distressed, with more than 90 percent of their loan portfolios non-performing.

BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur recently said individual depositors of the nine NBFIs slated for liquidation may get back their principal amounts before Ramadan in February.

Officials said the government has verbally approved around Tk 5,000 crore to repay non-bank depositors.

Central bank data show the nine NBFIs hold Tk 15,370 crore in deposits, of which Tk 3,525 crore belongs to individual depositors and Tk 11,845 crore to banks and corporate clients.

In May last year, BB warned 20 NBFIs with high levels of defaulted loans after they failed to repay depositors.

Dhaka stocks extended their gains for a third consecutive session yesterday (20 January), as cautious investors remained active on both the buying and selling sides amid political uncertainty.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) gained 17 points to close at 5,109. The blue-chip DS30 index rose by 6 points to 1,970, while the Shariah-based DSES index added 7 points to finish at 1,031.

Turnover increased by 12.98% to Tk670 crore, up from Tk593 crore in the previous session. Of the 388 issues traded, 210 advanced, 109 declined and 69 remained unchanged.

According to market insiders, the stock market had become oversold after several months of decline, largely driven by political uncertainty. However, as the election draws closer, some of that uncertainty has begun to ease, encouraging a return of fresh investment.

They also noted that the market often shows a positive trend around mid-January, which has further supported investor activity. As a result, trading has picked up on both sides of the market.

Over the past year, political uncertainty and several decisions taken by the market regulator were not positively received by investors. Many investors left the market, while a large number of institutional and high-net-worth investors became largely inactive.

This prolonged weakness pushed down the prices of even fundamentally strong stocks.

Analysts said political uncertainty remains the most important factor shaping investor sentiment. As this uncertainty gradually eases, they expect the market to move in a more positive direction.

However, they added that since the situation has not fully stabilised, institutional and large investors are still staying on the sidelines, keeping trading volume below its potential level.

They believe that if policy stability is ensured and investor confidence returns, the capital market has strong potential to recover in the coming period.

Large-cap sectors showed mixed performance during the session. The telecommunication sector posted the highest gain, rising by 1.41%, followed by engineering, which advanced 0.87%. The fuel and power sector gained 0.40%, while pharmaceuticals rose by 0.39%.

On the downside, the non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) sector slipped by 0.02%, banking fell by 0.13%, and the food and allied sector recorded the biggest loss among large-cap sectors, declining by 0.45%. Block trades accounted for 4.8% of the day's total turnover.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed higher. The CSCX index rose by 28 points to 8,819, while the CASPI index gained 44 points to close at 14,243, reflecting a positive mood across both major bourses.

Grameenphone has secured 10 megahertz of spectrum in the 700 MHz band, often called the “golden frequency” for its wide coverage and strong indoor reach, marking the first-ever allocation of the low-band frequency to a mobile operator in Bangladesh.

The spectrum was assigned at the base price, meaning the government will earn Tk 2,370 crore from the deal. The rate was set at Tk 237 crore per megahertz (MHz).

The allocation will run for 15 years, with payments spread over 10 instalments. If the allocation period ends earlier, the payable amount will be adjusted accordingly.

The approval came yesterday at a joint meeting of the Spectrum Auction Committee and the Spectrum Management Committee, said Major General (retd) Md Emdad ul Bari, Chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC).

The BTRC had fixed January 21 as the auction date. With only one bidder in the race, the regulator proceeded under its single bidder allocation rules.

The move follows Robi Axiata’s decision to withdraw from the auction, citing a “mismatch” between the auction timing and its network priorities. Banglalink and state-owned Teletalk stayed away.

Despite the thin turnout, the regulator went ahead, saying that preparations had been underway since 2024. It also said Robi had shown interest in spectrum from another band, which could be taken up later.

Earlier this month, anticipating a lone bidder, the BTRC revised its auction rules. It cut the maximum spectrum cap for a single operator to 10 megahertz from 15, out of a total 25 MHz on offer.

The regulator said the change was meant to protect competition and keep room for other operators in the future.

The 700 MHz band is valued for its ability to cover large areas and penetrate buildings, making it well suited for rural connectivity and indoor coverage.

With the allocation, Bangladesh formally begins using the 700 MHz band for mobile broadband, a step long viewed as key to improving nationwide network reach and service quality.

Tanveer Mohammad, chief corporate affairs officer of Grameenphone, said, “We have received the acknowledgement letter from BTRC stating Grameenphone’s eligibility for the acquisition of the 700 MHz spectrum, on completion of all applicable regulatory requirements. This reinforces our commitment to strengthening network quality and delivering a superior, reliable experience for our customers across Bangladesh.”

He said, “We appreciate BTRC’s continued support in enabling a future-ready telco ecosystem. This will allow us to further enhance coverage, particularly in underserved and indoor environments, while improving network efficiency and resilience.”

“We look forward to responsibly utilising this spectrum to further elevate service quality and deliver secure, innovative digital services for our more than 85.6 million customers, reinforcing our role as a key enabler of Bangladesh’s digital progress,” he added.

Even so, a large part of the band remains out of reach. Twenty MHz is still locked in a long legal dispute between the BTRC and broadband service provider Always On Network.

Gold prices surged to a record ‌above $4,800 per ounce on Wednesday, as investors sought the metal as a safe haven following a broad selloff in US assets amid heightened tensions between the US and NATO over Greenland.

Spot gold climbed 2.1 percent to $4,862.19 per ounce by 0837 GMT, after scaling a record $4,887.82 earlier in ‌the session. US gold futures for February delivery climbed 2.2 percent to $4,869.40 per ​ounce.

“It’s the loss of trust in the US caused by Trump’s moves over the weekend to tariff European countries and increase coercion in trying to take Greenland. (The move in ‍gold) reflects fears about global geopolitical (tensions),” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com.

On Tuesday, Trump said there was “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland, refusing to rule out taking the Arctic island by force and lashing out at NATO allies.

He later said, “we will work ‍something out where NATO is going to be very happy and where we’re going to be very ‌happy.” Meanwhile, ‌French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism of Trump’s threat of steep tariffs at Davos.

“I think crossing $4,800 just reinforces that people don’t want to sell gold before $5,000. It’s a combination of the traditional supporters for gold, which is rising debt, ​a weakening dollar and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

The dollar index languished at a near one-month low after White House threats over Greenland triggered a broad ‍selloff in US assets, from the currency to Wall Street stocks and Treasury bonds.

A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced metals cheaper for overseas buyers.

Tax compliance among the public will not improve unless transparency is ensured in how tax revenues collected from people are spent, economists said at a seminar in Dhaka today (21 January).

"As long as people can't see where the money collected from them is being spent, tax compliance will not develop," said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, professor at the Department of Development Studies of the University of Dhaka, at the seminar held at the Bangladesh Development Bank Limited (BDBL) building.

Titumir said taxpayers want to know whether their money is being spent for their benefit. Stating that people have lost trust in the revenue system, he said, "This is because there is no fairness in it."

Masud Khan, chairman of Unilever Consumer Care, raised similar concerns. "What do I receive in return for the tax I pay? In other countries, taxpayers receive many services for free," he said.

"If people could understand that paying tax brings them benefits, they would be more willing to pay," he added.

He said only 20% of tax-eligible people in the country currently pay taxes, while the burden created by the remaining 80% who do not pay falls on that 20%.

Participants said corruption and mismanagement in previous governments led to the wastage of taxpayers' money. They also criticised the National Board of Revenue's policy of collecting minimum tax, arguing it undermines fairness. It was noted that Bangladesh is the only country where minimum tax is collected in this way.

Minimum tax refers to tax deducted at source at a fixed rate. Even if a company makes less profit than the tax deducted – or incurs a loss – the deducted amount is not refunded. Speakers said this goes against the basic principle that tax should be paid on income, and that companies often face an effective tax rate higher than the official corporate tax rate.

Online returns

Masud Khan, also described the current online tax return filing system as difficult and confusing, contradicting repeated claims by National Board of Revenue Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan that it is easy.

After the event, Khan told The Business Standard, "My son lives in the US, where tax returns can be filed very easily."

"I asked for his help after failing to complete it myself. He said it was very complicated, and eventually even he could not do it," he added.

The NBR chairman has said at different programmes that "Anyone who can click the 'Like' button on Facebook can fill out an online tax return."

Khan said even after submitting a return, individuals and companies often do not know whether it has been finally accepted.

"After submission, the return may still be selected for audit by the commissionerate, tax intelligence, or the Central Intelligence Cell. Even after that, it may again be audited. As an assessee, I do not know when my return will finally be accepted," he said.

During the event, he highlighted various concerns and objections raised by businesspeople regarding Bangladesh's tax, customs, and VAT systems.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as an expected build-up of US crude inventories outweighed a temporary halt in output at two large fields in Kazakhstan and geopolitical pressure from US threats of tariffs over its bid to gain control of Greenland.

Brent futures fell 97 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $63.95 a barrel at 0745 GMT. The US West Texas Intermediate crude contract lost 78 cents, or 1.3 percent, to trade at $59.58 a barrel.

Both contracts closed nearly $1 a barrel, or 1.5 percent higher, in the previous session after Opec+ producer Kazakhstan halted output at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields on Sunday due to power distribution issues. Strong China economic data was also positive.

Oil production at the two Kazakh fields could be halted for another seven to 10 days, three industry sources told Reuters.

The oil output halt at Tengiz, one of the world’s largest oil fields, and Korolev is temporary, and downward pressure from an expected rise in US crude inventories along with geopolitical tension will persist, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump’s promise of fresh tariffs on European nations if no deal for the US to gain control of Greenland was reached is adding pressure to the oil markets because the tariffs risk slowing economic growth.

Trump said on Tuesday there was “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland.

US crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.7 million barrels in the week to January 16.

The American Petroleum Institute weekly inventory data is due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Wednesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, at 12 p.m. EST (1700 GMT) on Thursday, both a day later due to a US federal holiday on Monday.

As winter grips northern China, 72-year-old farmer He Wenxiang runs his gas boiler only occasionally to warm the bedroom radiator.

While that inventory growth would be negative for oil prices, Gregory Brew, senior analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, said the potential for US-Iran tensions to re-escalate would help elevate oil prices.

Trump threatened to strike Iran over its violent crackdown on anti-government protests earlier this month.

Any attack on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would trigger a declaration of jihad, or holy war, the Iranian Students’ News Agency quoted Iran’s national security parliamentary commission as saying on Tuesday.

“While the US demurred from striking Iran immediately, tensions are likely to remain high as additional US military assets move to the Middle East and diplomacy to de-escalate tensions fails to make progress,” Brew said in a note.

Stockbrokers have urged the capital market regulator to revise the existing sector classification system of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, arguing that the outdated framework limits meaningful market analysis and weakens the market's appeal to global investors.

In a letter sent to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission today (21 January), the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) requested the regulator to initiate a comprehensive review of the current classification structure and consider adopting an internationally aligned model in consultation with relevant stakeholders.

The letter was signed by DBA President Saiful Islam.

At present, the DSE follows a sector classification system comprising 22 sectors, including government bonds, corporate bonds and mutual funds.

According to the brokers, this structure has remained largely unchanged since its introduction many years ago, despite significant evolution in global capital market practices.

In contrast, most international markets now rely on widely accepted frameworks such as the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), jointly developed by MSCI and Standard & Poor's, or the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB).

Under GICS, companies are grouped into 11 sectors, 25 industry groups, 74 industries and 163 sub-industries, offering what the brokers described as a more detailed, consistent and globally comparable structure.

Such frameworks, the brokers said, enable investors to better assess sectoral trends, compare markets across countries and make informed portfolio allocation decisions.

In its letter, the DBA highlighted that the limitations of the existing DSE classification are evident in several company-level examples. Marico Bangladesh Limited is currently grouped under "Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals," while British American Tobacco Bangladesh is classified as "Food and Allied."

Under international standards such as GICS, both would fall under the consumer staples sector, which the brokers said better reflects their main business activities.

Similarly, consumer-focused companies such as Walton, Singer, Bata and Apex would be classified under consumer discretionary, aligning them with global peers that are sensitive to changes in consumer demand and income levels.

The brokers said such mismatches create analytical distortions for investors, researchers, policymakers and international stakeholders. Sector-based performance analysis plays a crucial role in understanding economic cycles, consumption patterns and income trends.

For example, strong gains in consumer discretionary stocks often signal rising household incomes and economic expansion, while the outperformance of defensive sectors like utilities may indicate heightened economic caution.

An outdated or inconsistent classification system, they said, reduces the reliability of these signals.

The DBA said bringing the DSE's sector framework into line with global standards would improve transparency, strengthen market analysis and allow more meaningful comparisons with international markets.

This, it added, could help attract foreign portfolio investment and strengthen the stock market's role as an indicator of the wider economy.

The government has allowed the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to import liquefied petroleum gas through government-to-government deals amid a nationwide shortage of cooking gas cylinders and a sharp rise in prices.

The situation is being attributed to supply shortages and the authorities believe this move by the government would ease the crisis.

But a number of BPC officials said this would unlikely to bring relief anytime soon. Because, the corporation currently lacks the specialised lighterage vessels and dedicated jetties needed to transport the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Because of these logistical constraints, imports cannot begin immediately, according to a number of BPC officials.

Until now, LPG imports have been handled mainly by the private sector.

According to the current arrangement, BPC is allowed to import only bulk LPG -- gas brought in large tanks or vessels -- which private operators later bottle at their own terminals before selling it in the market.

BPC will supply LPG only to approved private operators and will not be involved in bottling or retail sales.

Market insiders say weak market management and poor oversight have also contributed to the current gas cylinder crisis, but these issues are being overlooked as the authorities rush to boost supply.

“We have several infrastructural limitations, as we have never imported this type of LPG before,” a BPC official said on condition of anonymity.

“Even if we import LPG, we will not sell it directly to consumers. The same private players who currently dominate the market will handle distribution, meaning they can still influence supply and prices,” he added.

PERMISSION GRANTED, BUT CONDITIONS APPLY

According to BPC sources, the corporation first sought permission to import LPG on January 10. The energy ministry gave verbal consent on January 18, followed by written approval on Tuesday.

The approval letter, addressed to BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan and signed by Shahina Akhter, senior assistant secretary of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, allows LPG imports under specific conditions.

These require BPC to consult the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB) to finalise operators, import volumes, payment arrangements, and plans for unloading and distribution, with the ministry granting final approval.

On Tuesday, Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan told The Daily Star that imports must be increased if the government wants to keep the country’s LPG market under control.

“The government’s involvement in the sector would make market monitoring easier, as we would be able to regularly oversee sales and ensure fair pricing,” he said.

He added that BPC officials are already reviewing potential sources for government-to-government imports and expressed hope that the crisis would be resolved soon.

Mani Lal Das, general manager (commercial and operations) at BPC, told The Daily Star that initial discussions would focus on suppliers in Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, countries from which Bangladesh already imports other petroleum products.

“We are preparing to send emails to these companies and will move ahead with those that can offer competitive prices, flexible terms and quick delivery,” he said.

Acknowledging logistical challenges for BPC’s first LPG imports, he said LPG cargoes usually arrive at the outer anchorage near Kutubdia and must be transferred to specialised lighterage vessels for unloading.

“However, we do not have such vessels or jetties,” he added.

To address the issue, Das said BPC is considering importing LPG in smaller consignments of 5,000 to 7,000 tonnes or working with suppliers that can provide three specialised lighterage vessels.

“One vessel would serve the Khulna-Daulatdia route, while two would be used in the Chattogram zone,” he added.

He expressed hope, saying discussions with potential suppliers are ongoing and that a final decision is expected within days.

However, a member of BPC’s procurement committee, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the entire process could take at least two months.

SUPPLY NOT THE MAIN ISSUE

Meanwhile, market data suggest that supply constraints are not caused by imports.

Over the past three years, LPG imports steadily increased: 12.23 lakh tonnes in 2023, 14.42 lakh tonnes in 2024, and 14.65 lakh tonnes in 2025, totalling 41.3 lakh tonnes.

In the last six months of 2025, imports rose 18 percent compared with the first half of the year, while average import costs fell 14 percent -- from Tk 87 per kg to about Tk 75 per kg, according to National Board of Revenue data. Most of the 14.65 lakh tonnes imported in 2025 arrived during this period.

Despite stable imports and lower costs, LPG prices remain high, raising concerns about artificial shortages. Retail prices are still much higher than government-set rates. In January, the government raised the price of a 12kg LPG cylinder by Tk 53 to Tk 1,306, but in Dhaka and Chattogram, it is selling for Tk 1,750 to Tk 2,100 -- Tk 400 to Tk 750 above the official rate.

Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the issue is not the volume of imports but poor market management.

“Over the past six months, LPG imports have risen, and average import costs have fallen, yet prices have increased, creating an artificial shortage,” he said.

“If the government imports LPG only to hand it over to the same suppliers, the crisis will not end. Alongside imports, distribution and market monitoring must be strengthened,” he added.

BPC officials also said that 98-99 percent of the LPG market is controlled by the private sector, limiting the government’s ability to intervene effectively. While 25 companies import LPG, just four dominate, accounting for 57 percent of total imports.

According to NBR data, Omera Petroleum Limited has the largest share at 17.96 percent, followed by Meghna Fresh LPG Ltd at 16.24 percent. Jamuna Spacetech Joint Venture and United Aygaz LPG Ltd control 12.38 percent and 9.11 percent, respectively.

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) output is set to jump this year, easing constraints seen since the 2022 Ukraine war and dampening prices, which could spur demand including from top importers China and India, analysts say.

This year marks the start of a large wave of supply that analysts expect to last until 2029, depressing prices that could drive more demand from emerging economies.

“2026 is expected to be a transitional year for the LNG market,” said Kpler. “The market is expected to move away from tightness toward ample availability, with sufficient supply even as winter demand and storage needs emerge, particularly in Europe.”

SUPPLY

Estimates from S&P Global Energy, Kpler and Rystad Energy forecast at least 35 million metric tons of new capacity coming online this year, primarily from the US and Qatar. This could lift global LNG supplies by up to 10 percent year-on-year, with 2026 supply forecasts from Kpler, Rystad, ICIS and Rabobank in a range of 460 million and 484 million metric tons.

Projects like Golden Pass LNG on the US Gulf Coast and Qatar’s North Field expansion are expected to contribute sizable volumes, while output is set to ramp up from Corpus Christi and Plaquemines LNG in the US, LNG Canada and the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim projects offshore Senegal and Mauritania.

The additional supply will pressure global prices, with analysts from Rabbobank, Rystad and Kpler predicting a range of averages for Asian spot LNG from $9.50 to $9.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, down from an average of $12.45 in 2025.

Rystad and Kpler gave forecasts for gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, to average in a range of $9.50 to $9.74 per mmBtu this year, down from an average of $14.20 in 2025.

With Asia LNG and European gas prices easing, price spreads to US benchmark Henry Hub will narrow, squeezing US LNG export margins at a time when feedgas costs are rising, said analysts at Vortexa, Rabobank and S&P Global Energy.

CHINA, INDIA TO DRIVE DEMAND

Asia’s LNG demand, which slipped in 2025 on price sensitivity and competition from alternative fuels, is forecast to recover by 4 percent to 7 percent this year led by China and India as lower prices spur additional spot purchasing, fuel switching and stockpiling, according to a range of outlooks from Rystad, Kpler and S&P Global Energy.

As winter grips northern China, 72-year-old farmer He Wenxiang runs his gas boiler only occasionally to warm the bedroom radiator.

New contracts will also add to rising imports, with Chinese demand expected to rise by 6 million to 7 million tons and Indian demand by 5 million tons, said Kpler analyst Nelson Xiong.

“Much of the new contracted supply should be absorbed domestically,” he said.

China’s 2025 imports slumped amid weak industrial demand, US tariffs, and strong domestic and piped gas supply. Demand this year is set to rise but may still fall short of 2024 levels, said Rystad Energy analyst Ole Dramdal, forecasting imports at 76.5 million tons this year, up 12 percent from 2025, as Beijing prioritizes domestic production.

However, a substantial surplus of China’s contracted volume will likely be remarketed as the country’s long-term LNG contracts are expected to reach above 80 million tons per year, Dramdal added, while Turkey, Malaysia and Taiwan will see their combined imports rise by 6.2 million tons in 2026.

EUROPE ABSORBS SUPPLY

Europe became a driver for global LNG demand after it cut Russian supply following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Kpler sees Europe’s 2026 LNG imports rising by 22 million tons while Rystad forecasts an increase of 20 million tons and Energy Aspects and ICIS see gains of around 13 million tons. This is driven by higher storage injection needs after lower end-of-winter inventories, higher domestic gas consumption amid softer average TTF prices, growing Turkish demand, and its role as a balancing market for rising Atlantic basin supply.

“Europe has been poised to absorb a large share of the new LNG supply, showing the strongest near-term incremental demand,” said Rystad’s Dramdal.

Europe will begin phasing out Russian piped gas and LNG this year, with analysts expecting LNG cargoes from the Yamal project to find alternative destinations like Turkey and Egypt, while Europe backfills the displaced volumes with Atlantic basin supply.

In the first half of the current 2025-26 fiscal year – from July to December – revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) increased by 14% compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.

However, collection fell Tk45,976 crore short of the target. NBR officials and experts attribute the large deficit primarily to the ambitious targets set for the current year. They also cite the lack of the expected momentum in the economy and insufficient enthusiasm among field-level officials to boost revenue by preventing evasion.

According to the latest data released by the NBR, revenue collection in December rose by just over 10% compared with the same month of the previous fiscal year. Growth rates in earlier months had been higher. In December alone, the shortfall against the target amounted to Tk15,181 crore.

Statistics show that against a target of Tk2,31,205 crore for the first six months, actual revenue collection stood at Tk1,85,229 crore. During this period, collection increased by over 14% compared with the same period last fiscal year.

However, to meet the overall target set for the NBR, revenue collection would need to grow by 53% compared with last year.

Experts say there is no precedent in Bangladesh's history for revenue growth at such a high rate.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Business Standard, "At the time of the last budget, we had already said that this target was unattainable. Later, another Tk55,000 crore was added to the target. As a result, the total target has become quite ambitious."

"As a result, there could be a large shortfall at the end of the year," he said.

He added, "There is no explanation as to what basis the government added an additional Tk55,000 crore to the NBR's target. It may have been done to align with IMF targets, but this is nothing more than 'eye-wash'."

Md Farid Uddin, a former member of the NBR, said, "There is no likelihood of such momentum in the economy over the next six months that would make it possible to achieve such a large target. This means the institution is heading towards a massive shortfall compared with the target."

He said that since the 2016–17 fiscal year, the government has been presenting large expenditure budgets, which led to correspondingly high revenue targets, resulting in deficits every year.

However, he noted that given the size of Bangladesh's economy, achieving this level of revenue collection is not impossible. But the necessary reforms have not been undertaken. As a result, it will not be possible to formalise the largely informal economy – accounting for more than half of economic activity – and revenue will not be collected in line with the targets.

A tax zone commissioner at the NBR, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that even the target set at the beginning of the year would have been difficult to achieve under the current circumstances. With the target later increased further, achieving it has become practically impossible.

At the start of the fiscal year, the NBR's revenue target was set at Tk4,99,000 crore. Last month, it was raised to Tk5,54,000 crore.

The official added that with an election scheduled for February, there are no signs of a sudden acceleration in the economy thereafter. Even if momentum does pick up, revenue collection will not increase at such a high rate in practical terms.

According to NBR data, in the first half of the fiscal year, income tax collection increased by 14.67%, VAT by nearly 20%, and import tax growth remained below 7%.

Square Pharmaceuticals' Chairman Samuel S Chowdhury has announced that he will buy 20 lakh shares of the company at the prevailing market price, according to a disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (20 January).

Under the plan, the shares, worth Tk43 crore with each costing Tk215.20, will be acquired from both the public market and through block transactions on the DSE within the next 30 working days.

Samuel Chowdhury already holds a significant stake in the company – 8.42 shares until June 2025 – and this latest planned purchase underscores the continued confidence of senior leadership in Square Pharma's long-term prospects.

Earlier this month, in a separate disclosures, Square Pharmaceuticals Managing Director Tapan Chowdhury, and Director Ratna Patra also announced plans to buy a total 30 lakh shares – with Tapan purchasing 20 lakh shares and Ratna 10 lakh – of the company at the market price within the next 30 working days.

Until June 2025, Tapan held 8.55 crore shares and Ratna 7.95 crore shares of Square Pharmaceuticals.

Industry data shows that sponsor-directors of Square Pharmaceuticals have been steadily increasing their holdings, a trend often viewed by market observers as a sign of confidence in the company's future performance.

Square Pharmaceuticals is currently the second-largest listed company on the DSE by market capitalisation, valued at around Tk18,500 crore, which represents roughly 5.6% of the total market capitalisation of the bourse.

According to the company's December shareholding statement, sponsors and directors jointly hold a combined 43.59% of the company's shares, institutional investors own 14.54%, foreign investors 14.52%, and general investors account for the remaining 27.35%.

In the first half of the current 2025-26 fiscal year – from July to December – revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) increased by 14% compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.

However, collection fell Tk68,995 crore short of the target. In the same period last fiscal year, the shortfall stood at Tk57,891 crore. NBR officials and experts attribute the large deficit primarily to the ambitious targets set for the current year. They also cite the lack of the expected momentum in the economy and insufficient enthusiasm among field-level officials to boost revenue by preventing evasion.

According to the latest data released by the NBR, revenue collection in December rose by just over 10% compared with the same month of the previous fiscal year. Growth rates in earlier months had been higher. In December alone, the shortfall against the target amounted to Tk12,536 crore.

Statistics show that against a target of Tk2,31,205 crore for the first six months, actual revenue collection stood at Tk162,210 crore. During this period, collection increased by over 14% compared with the same period last fiscal year.

However, to meet the overall target set for the NBR, revenue collection would need to grow by 53% compared with last year.

Experts say there is no precedent in Bangladesh's history for revenue growth at such a high rate.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Business Standard, "At the time of the last budget, we had already said that this target was unattainable. Later, another Tk55,000 crore was added to the target. As a result, the total target has become quite ambitious."

"As a result, there could be a large shortfall at the end of the year," he said.

He added, "There is no explanation as to what basis the government added an additional Tk55,000 crore to the NBR's target. It may have been done to align with IMF targets, but this is nothing more than 'eye-wash'."

Md Farid Uddin, a former member of the NBR, said, "There is no likelihood of such momentum in the economy over the next six months that would make it possible to achieve such a large target. This means the institution is heading towards a massive shortfall compared with the target."

He said that since the 2016–17 fiscal year, the government has been presenting large expenditure budgets, which led to correspondingly high revenue targets, resulting in deficits every year.

However, he noted that given the size of Bangladesh's economy, achieving this level of revenue collection is not impossible. But the necessary reforms have not been undertaken. As a result, it will not be possible to formalise the largely informal economy – accounting for more than half of economic activity – and revenue will not be collected in line with the targets.

A tax zone commissioner at the NBR, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that even the target set at the beginning of the year would have been difficult to achieve under the current circumstances. With the target later increased further, achieving it has become practically impossible.

At the start of the fiscal year, the NBR's revenue target was set at Tk4,99,000 crore. Last month, it was raised to Tk5,54,000 crore.

The official added that with an election scheduled for February, there are no signs of a sudden acceleration in the economy thereafter. Even if momentum does pick up, revenue collection will not increase at such a high rate in practical terms.

According to NBR data, in the first half of the fiscal year, income tax collection increased by 14.67%, VAT by nearly 20%, and import tax growth remained below 7%.