The government is facing growing uncertainty over how to mobilise funds to meet mounting expenditure pressures as a surge in global fuel prices threatens to widen the fiscal gap in the upcoming budget.

Officials at the finance division say the cost of subsidies in the power and energy sectors alone could approach Tk1 lakh crore annually, driven by nearly doubled oil and gas prices in international markets amid the Middle East war.

Additional pressure is seen from increased subsidies in agriculture and fertiliser alongside spending commitments linked to the government's election pledges.

However, revenue mobilisation prospects remain weak due to sluggish economic activity, raising concerns over how the government will bridge the widening gap between income and cost.

Against this backdrop, the government's coordination council is set to meet tomorrow to review the overall situation, identify risks and outline strategies for the next fiscal year's budget.

Finance ministry officials said they had initially begun work on a budget of around Tk8.8 lakh crore to Tk9 lakh crore for FY2026, expecting a post-election rebound in investment and employment.

But the overall global situation has forced a reassessment as rising energy costs squeeze fiscal space while revenue growth remains constrained.

Officials are now considering a contractionary budget, with the size likely to be between Tk8.5 lakh crore and Tk8.6 lakh crore.

The government is expected to set a revenue target of around Tk6 lakh crore for the next FY, including approximately Tk5.3 lakh crore from the National Board of Revenue. However, concerns persist over the feasibility of this target.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue has already warned that NBR collections in the current FY may fall short of the target by about Tk1 lakh crore.

"Global economic uncertainty and structural weaknesses in revenue mobilisation have made it increasingly difficult to balance income and expenditure while delivering on election promises," a senior finance ministry official said.

He also said that the final budget size could be revised upward, potentially reaching Tk9 lakh crore, depending on the government's decisions.

The government has set a target of raising GDP growth from a provisional 3.5% this FY to 5% in the next, alongside efforts to contain inflation and boost domestic demand.

However, officials remain sceptical about achieving these targets given global perspectives.

Currently, the government has been managing subsidy pressures through spending cuts and alternative financing measures. These include reducing allocations in various sectors, issuing bonds to borrow from the private sector and utilising funds earmarked for "unforeseen expenditures."

Recent austerity measures include a ban on government vehicle purchases and restrictions on foreign travel funded by the state. While such steps have helped manage additional costs for a few months, officials warn that sustaining them over a longer period will be challenging.

"If the situation persists, adjustments in fuel and power prices may become necessary," the finance ministry official said, cautioning that such moves could further fuel inflation. This, in turn, may require higher allocations for social safety net programmes to protect low-income groups.

While initiatives like the "family card" programme have already been introduced, officials say there is limited scope to expand new schemes in the next budget. Instead, the focus will be on improving efficiency and preventing duplication in existing programmes.

Budget support from development partners is feared to decline sharply, from around $3.5 billion in FY2025 to about $1.2 billion in the current FY. Inflows may remain just above $1 billion next FY, although an additional $1.8 billion could come from the IMF under ongoing programmes.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said the government is working towards achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2034, outlining a broad set of measures to raise income and sustain economic growth.

He made the statement today (6 April) in response to a written question from SM Jahangir Hossain, member of parliament for Dhaka-18, on the ninth day of the first session of the 13th National Parliament, with Deputy Speaker Kayser Kamal presiding.

The minister also informed parliament that the country's per capita income for the 2024–25 fiscal year stands at $2,769.

"One of the primary goals of the current government is to achieve the trillion-dollar economy milestone by 2034. To this end, the government is creating an action plan taking into consideration investment, employment, economic democratisation, creative economy, sports economy, etc," he said.

He added that the government is not focusing on a single sector to raise per capita income, but is taking a comprehensive approach that includes employment, investment, production, exports, remittance, skill development, social safety and macroeconomic stability.

The minister outlined several key steps initiated by the government to support this goal:

Employment generation and reducing unemployment: The government is giving priority to creating new employment opportunities across production, construction, services, information technology, agro-processing and small entrepreneurship sectors. Increased employment is expected to raise household income and gradually increase per capita income.
Increasing private investment and industrialisation: Measures are being taken to simplify the process of starting and expanding businesses, create an investment-friendly environment, encourage industrial establishment and increase the flow of finance into productive sectors. This is expected to generate jobs and income.
Support for small and medium enterprises: Small and medium enterprises are a major source of employment. Initiatives include simplifying access to finance, supporting new entrepreneurs, encouraging women and youth entrepreneurs and expanding market access. This is expected to strengthen local economic activity.
Increasing exports and market expansion: Efforts are underway to boost foreign income by supporting export-oriented industries, diversifying exports, exploring new markets and retaining existing ones. Higher export income is expected to increase production and employment.
Increasing remittance: Steps have been taken to enhance the skills of workers going abroad, expand overseas employment opportunities, encourage remittance through legal channels and simplify related services. This is expected to strengthen household income and the country's foreign exchange position.
Skill development and training: Technical and practical training is being expanded in line with labour market demands at home and abroad. A skilled workforce is expected to secure better employment and improve productivity.
Strengthening agriculture and rural economy: Initiatives are being taken to strengthen agricultural production, rural infrastructure, irrigation, food supply and agro-based small businesses. Increased rural income is expected to contribute significantly to overall national income.
Implementation timeline: Some of these measures are already being implemented in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, while others will be carried out in phases over the short, medium and long term, particularly in areas such as employment, investment, skill development, exports and remittance growth.

"With the goal of increasing per capita income, the government is taking steps that will increase people's income, reduce unemployment, boost production and investment, strengthen remittance and exports, and simultaneously protect the purchasing power of the common people," the finance minister said.

The country’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 as a sharp fall in industrial activity dragged down overall output, according to provisional data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The economy expanded 3.03 percent in the October-December quarter, down from 3.53 percent a year earlier, with industrial growth slipping to just 1.27 percent from 5.78 percent in the same period last year.

It was the slowest second-quarter expansion since FY21, when growth fell to 1.28 percent during the Covid-19 disruption.

Earlier in the fiscal year, the revised growth figure for the first quarter stood at 4.96 percent, compared with 3.91 percent in the corresponding quarter of FY25, showing that the slowdown has gathered pace as the year progressed.

At current prices, the size of the economy reached Tk 15,17,615 crore in the October-December quarter of FY26, up from Tk 13,90,147 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said weak exports, energy constraints and political uncertainty weighed on production.

Besides, reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration affected global trade flows, hurting export-oriented manufacturing.

According to the economist, domestic disruptions like frequent street protests and demonstrations further dented output, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as ceramics.

“Manufacturing investment and production are usually slow in periods of political uncertainty,” Hussain added.

In the October-December quarter, agriculture grew 3.68 percent, up from 1.90 percent in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

Favourable weather supported Aman rice production this year, compared to last year when flooding in parts of Noakhali region disrupted output, he said.

The services sector expanded 4.45 percent, compared with 3.48 percent in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Although higher year-on-year, Hussain said that growth in the service sector usually remains above 5 percent.

According to the economist, poor law and order conditions weighed on service activities.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and former chief economist of the Bangladesh Bank, said growth has remained weak since the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war.

He said the slowdown deepened in the latest quarter as both public and private spending tightened ahead of national elections in February.

Usually, the government scales back annual development programme (ADP) spending before elections, while private investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, he said.

Remittance earnings rose about 20 percent year-on-year to $8.67 billion in the second quarter, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

However, economists said the inflows have yet to translate into stronger overall growth.

Mujeri said the current quarter shows little sign of a strong rebound, citing the ongoing war in the Middle East and the risk of higher fuel prices disrupting production across sectors.

Multilateral lenders, however, expect some recovery over the full fiscal year.

The World Bank has projected the economy will expand by 4.6 percent in this fiscal year ending June 2026, despite persistent inflation, falling exports and sluggish investment.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth to reach 4.9 percent in FY2025-26.

Industrial production in Bangladesh is facing a severe cost-push crisis as the Middle East war drives up global fuel prices, shipping tariffs, and raw material costs.

A prolonged conflict could further drive up input costs, inevitably trickling down to consumers through higher commodity prices, warn industry leaders.

Exporters, particularly in the garment sector, are already facing financial strain as they are forced to absorb higher raw material costs for orders that have already been confirmed. With global demand weakening, their ability to pass on increased costs to buyers has diminished, eroding profit margins and raising the risk of losses.

Industry insiders say the uncertainty has also triggered panic buying among importers, who are placing larger orders to secure supplies, further fuelling price hikes. In some cases, buyers have even halted new orders amid volatility in global markets.

Interviews with more than a dozen entrepreneurs in both the export and domestic sectors indicate that import costs for various raw materials and chemicals have surged by 10% to 183%.

Key increases include prices of non-cotton fabric by around 19%, polyester filament yarn by 79%, cotton yarn by 18%, chemicals by 50% to 183%, steel raw materials by 17%, clinker by 34%, plastic resin by 67%, and pharmaceutical active ingredients by approximately 30%.

Despite no official increase in domestic fuel prices, transportation costs have already risen by nearly 30%, adding further pressure on production expenses.

Khorshed Alam, chairman of Little Star Spinning Mills Limited, said the price of lyocell fibre has increased from $1.60 per kilogram before the war to $1.90, marking a rise of about 19%. Polyester fibre prices have also risen by around 28%.

Chemical prices have seen some of the sharpest increases. Saleudh Zaman Khan, managing director of NZ Apparels, said prices have risen by 50% to 183% depending on the type, while dyeing chemicals alone have increased by 40% to 50% within a month.

He also highlighted a steep rise in sulphuric acid prices – from Tk55-60 per kilogram to Tk230 within days – warning that such increases could discourage proper use of effluent treatment plants, potentially leading to increased environmental pollution.

Shamim Ahmed, president of the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, noted that plastic resin prices have surged to $1,600 from $900 in the global market, while Bangladesh remains almost entirely dependent on imports for this key raw material.

Similar trends are evident in the cement and steel sectors. Chanchal Kumar Roy, executive director of Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association, said clinker prices have risen from $43 to $58 per tonne, while steel importers report prices increasing from $600 to $700 per tonne. Some importers have delayed opening letters of credit due to the higher costs.

The pharmaceutical sector is also under pressure. DH Shamim, managing director of pharmaceutical raw material importer BBCON, said that prices of almost all raw materials have increased by an average of up to 30% due to global conditions, raising production costs and putting pressure on the industry.

He noted that gas shortages and rising costs of solvents and other basic intermediates have also increased the cost of producing APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients), ultimately pushing up overall manufacturing costs.

Although domestic fuel prices remain unchanged, manufacturers claim that transportation costs have already begun to climb in several sectors.

Khorshed Alam pointed out that truck fares between Savar and Narsingdi's Madhabpur have climbed to Tk8,500, up from the previous rate of Tk6,500.

Acute instability in supply chains

Industry stakeholders report that price hikes are being compounded by acute instability in global supply chains and order processing. Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director of PRAN-RFL Group, said, "We are facing a shortage of plastic raw materials and are currently sustaining our operations solely on existing pipeline stocks."

He cautioned that a prolonged war could lead to production bottlenecks as early as next month.

Saleudh Zaman Khan noted, "The supply of certain chemicals has become unavailable. The agents who previously imported and supplied us from India are now unable to continue their imports."

He added, "Since we have some stock remaining, we can sustain operations for a few more days. However, smaller firms will face production disruptions very soon."

Losses for pre-existing orders

As prices continue to surge, exporters and manufacturers with pre-existing orders are bracing for significant losses.

ABM Shamsuddin, managing director of Hannan Group, said, "As we have already finalised our export orders, it will not be possible to pass the additional costs on to the buyers. We are forced to absorb these expenses, which may result in losses given our already thin profit margins."

He added, "We anticipate that fabric prices may climb further, as suppliers are now issuing proforma invoices with extremely short validity periods, often less than seven days."

Shamim Ahmed noted, "Due to the fresh hike in raw material prices, many plastic product manufacturers will face losses because they have already accepted purchase orders. It will not be possible to collect the additional costs from the buyers."

However, he added, for new orders, it might be possible to negotiate higher prices to account for the increased costs.

Garment industry stakeholders cautioned that the cooling global demand for apparel makes it difficult to pass on the full extent of increased production costs to international buyers. This scenario is expected to place significant fresh strain on the country's RMG exporters, who are already navigating a volatile market.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman yesterday assured business leaders that the export development fund (EDF) may be gradually expanded to $5 billion, according to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI).

The assurance came during a meeting held at the central bank in Dhaka with FBCCI leaders, said Md Alamgir, secretary general of the apex business body, after the meeting.

Alamgir told journalists that the EDF, formed from foreign exchange reserves to support exporters, once stood at $7 billion but has now declined to around $2.2 billion.

Business leaders urged the central bank to raise the fund to $5 billion, and the governor responded positively, assuring that the amount would be increased in phases, he added.

On lending rates, Alamgir said business leaders stressed the need to keep interest rates stable to encourage investment and maintain industrial competitiveness.

They also recommended gradually bringing lending rates down to single digits.

The business leaders further urged the central bank to increase credit flow to the private sector, saying financing should be directed more towards productive sectors by reducing pressure from public-sector borrowing.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the proposal to expand the EDF had received the governor’s agreement.

“The fund was reduced because of IMF-related conditions. We have proposed raising it from around $2.5 billion to $5 billion first, and later to $8 billion,” Hatem said.

He added that business leaders also sought relaxation in loan classification rules.

At present, borrowers are classified as defaulters if they fail to repay loans for three months.

Business leaders proposed extending that period to six months. They also urged the central bank to stop the practice under which one defaulting business affects the classification status of its affiliated entities.

In addition, business leaders proposed extending the repayment period after loan rescheduling from the current four to five years to 10 years.

FBCCI also recommended introducing low-cost green financing facilities to encourage investment in renewable energy, including solar power, to reduce energy costs.

Oil prices were little changed in choppy trade on ‌Monday, as investors awaited clarity on the status of talks between the US and Iran even as they remained wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures rose 76 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $109.79 a barrel at 0656 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude ​futures were trading 53 cents, or 0.5 percent lower, at $111.01 per barrel.

The pricing moves in Asia trading on Monday ​were dwarfed by an 11 percent surge for WTI and an 8 percent rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020.

On Sunday, Trump ratcheted up pressure on Tehran, threatening ​in an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post to target Iran’s power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic ​Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Still, prices were largely unchanged on Monday.

Iran and the United States have received a plan to end hostilities that could come into effect on Monday and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a source aware of the proposals said on Monday.

The Strait of ​Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains ​largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28.

“Not being able to open the Strait of Hormuz is ‌becoming ⁠more a question of political victory,” said Mukesh Sahdev, founder and CEO at consultancy XAnalysts.

Because of the Middle East supply disruptions, refiners are seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.

Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, ​reflecting Iran’s policy to allow ​passage for vessels from countries ⁠it deems more friendly.

The war threatens to linger on as Iran has officially told mediators it is not prepared to meet with US officials in Islamabad in the coming days ​and efforts to produce a ceasefire have reached a dead end, The Wall Street ​Journal reported on Friday.

On ⁠Sunday, Opec+, consisting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

However, that decision will largely exist on paper as several of the group’s key ⁠producers ​are unable to raise output due to the war.

Russian supply has been ​disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminals. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal resumed loadings on Saturday after days ​of disruptions.

The dollar was steady on Monday, while the yen flirted with the crucial 160 per dollar level, ​as nervous investors took stock of the escalating Iran war, with all eyes on the latest deadline from US President Donald Trump ‌to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time (0000 GMT).

With most of Asia and Europe closed for holiday on Monday, liquidity is likely to be thin, with investor focus on the possibility ​of a ceasefire after a media report suggested a last-ditch push from negotiators was underway.

"Trump's latest deadline itself is bearish not because ​investors think war is guaranteed tomorrow if Iran does not open the strait, but because every new ultimatum makes ⁠the disruption look longer, stickier and more macro-negative," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.

The euro was at $1.1523, while sterling last fetched $1.3211. The dollar ​index , which measures the US currency against six rivals, was slightly lower at 100.12.

The Australian dollar was 0.3 percent higher at $0.69045, wobbling near the two-month low that it hit last ​week.

In the kind of mixed messaging that has baffled supporters, foes and financial markets alike, Trump told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday.

Axios reported the US , Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Global markets have been rattled ​since the US -Israel war on Iran broke out at the end of February, with Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that is a ​thoroughfare through which about a fifth of the world's total oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

"If the strait is reopened fully around that time (Trump's Tuesday deadline), oil will fall sharply ‌and risk ⁠will rally hard," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.

"However, if the US escalates, expect global markets to reprice sharply. It's wait-and-watch in what's turning out to be a binary event."

The closure has caused oil prices to surge well above $100 per barrel, stoking fears of high inflation and upending rates outlooks across the world. Worries about the hit to economic growth have also weighed as stagflation risks swirl.

Traders are now no longer pricing a move from the Federal Reserve well into ​the second half of 2027, compared ​with expectations of two rate ⁠cuts in 2026 at the start of the year.

Data last week suggested US labour market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk.

Two more Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas tankers, Green Asha and Green Sanvi, ​have exited the Gulf carrying the fuel for ‌the South Asian nation, according to ship tracking data on LSEG and Kpler.

A third vessel, Jag Vikram, is still ​in the west of the Strait of Hormuz, ​the data showed.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all ⁠but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​says "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway if they coordinate with ​Iranian authorities.

Green Asha and Green Sanvi have crossed the Gulf area and are in the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data ​showed, taking the total number of Indian-flagged LPG ​carriers that have traversed the Strait to eight.

India is gradually moving ‌its ⁠stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, Jag Vasant, BW Elm and BW Tyr already reaching India.

India, the world's second-largest LPG importer, is ​battling its worst ​gas crisis ⁠in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield households from any ​shortage of cooking gas.

The country consumed 33.15 ​million ⁠metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. About ⁠90 percent ​of those imports came from ​the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded in ​the Gulf.

Opec+ agreed on Sunday to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil route - since the end of February and cut exports from Opec+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high close to $120 a barrel, translating into soaring prices for transport fuels which are pressuring consumers and businesses across the globe, and triggering government action to conserve supplies.

The Opec+ quota increase of 206,000 bpd represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, Opec+ sources have said. Consultancy Energy Aspects called the increase "academic" as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

"In reality it adds very few barrels to the market," said Jorge Leon, a former Opec official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"When the Strait of Hormuz is closed additional barrels from Opec+ become largely irrelevant."

Opec+ concerned about attacks on energy assets

Eight members of Opec+ agreed to the increase in May quotas at a virtual meeting on Sunday, Opec+ said in a statement.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others such as Russia are unable to increase output - in Moscow's case due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has also been severe. Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.

A separate Opec+ panel that also met on Sunday, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply, Opec+ said in a statement.

Iran said on Saturday Iraq was exempt from any restrictions to transit Hormuz, and shipping data on Sunday showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait. Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

War causes world's worst oil supply disruption

May's Opec+ increase is the same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on 1 March, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15% of global supply.

Oil prices could spike above $150 - an all-time high - if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on Thursday.

Opec+ groups 22 members including Iran. In recent years only the eight countries meeting on Sunday have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in 2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.

The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026.

The eight hold their next meeting on 3 May.

The overall capital position of the country's banking sector has slipped into the negative as the shortfall surged to Tk2.82 lakh crore within just three months, driven by a sharp rise in defaulted loans and long-standing weaknesses in governance and lending practices.

A report by the Bangladesh Bank, based on data up to September 2025 and seen by The Business Standard, shows that the capital shortfall of 23 state-owned and private banks almost doubled over the July-September period.

The sharp deterioration has raised fresh concerns about the stability of the financial system.

Bankers and economists say the situation stems from years of aggressive lending, poor oversight and politically influenced loan approvals. The growing capital gap is also limiting banks' ability to lend and putting pressure on international financing, signalling broader risks for the economy.

At the end of June 2025, 24 banks had a combined capital deficit of Tk1.55 lakh crore, according to the central bank's latest report.

The report also shows that the sector's capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) – a key measure of financial strength – fell to negative 2.90% at the end of September last year. Under international regulatory standards, banks are required to maintain a minimum CRAR of 12.5%.

What does the capital shortfall mean for banking sector?

By comparison, the sector's overall CRAR stood at 4.47% at the end of June 2025.

The ratio measures a bank's capital relative to its risk-weighted assets, with asset values adjusted according to their level of risk.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and chief executive officer of Mutual Trust Bank, said uncontrolled lending – particularly aggressive loan disbursement and director-influenced lending – has played the biggest role in creating the crisis.

"Long-hidden defaulted loans are now coming to the surface, which has further worsened the situation," he said.

According to the latest data, defaulted loans have climbed to Tk6.44 lakh crore as of September 2025, further worsening the sector's financial position.

Deficits across banks

Among banks facing capital shortages, four state-owned lenders together account for a deficit of Tk37,698 crore, according to the central bank report.

Janata Bank has the largest shortfall at Tk19,973 crore, followed by Agrani Bank with Tk8,125 crore, Rupali Bank with Tk5,655 crore and BASIC Bank with Tk3,945 crore.

Meanwhile, nine private commercial banks recorded a combined capital deficit of Tk36,607 crore as of last September.

National Bank Limited has the largest shortfall among them at Tk10,651 crore. Other banks with significant deficits include AB Bank (Tk7,205 crore), Padma Bank (Tk5,837 crore), Premier Bank (Tk4,733 crore), and IFIC Bank (Tk4,455 crore).

Islamic banks account for the largest share of the sector's capital deficit. Eight Shariah-based banks together recorded a shortfall of Tk1.75 lakh crore by the end of September.

Banks with capital or provision shortfall can't pay incentive bonuses: BB

The largest deficit was reported by First Security Islami Bank at Tk65,090 crore, followed by Union Bank Limited with Tk27,103 crore.

Other banks with significant capital gaps include Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited (Tk22,982 crore), EXIM Bank Limited (Tk22,625 crore), Social Islami Bank Limited (Tk22,114 crore), Global Islami Bank (Tk13,758 crore), ICB Islamic Bank (Tk2,012 crore) and Al-Arafah Islami Bank (Tk138 crore).

Two specialised banks also reported a combined deficit of more than Tk32,000 crore.

The largest shortfall was recorded by Bangladesh Krishi Bank at Tk29,804 crore, while Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank reported a deficit of Tk2,673 crore.

'Structural crisis' in banking

Bankers and economists warn that the capital shortage reflects deeper structural problems in the sector.

MTB Managing Director Mahbubur Rahman described the situation as a fundamental and structural crisis. "Capital is the backbone of a bank. If it becomes weak, the bank cannot operate normally," he said.

He noted that weak capital limits banks' ability to extend large loans to single borrowers and reduces their capacity to secure international financing, as foreign banks closely assess the financial strength of local partners before providing funds.

He added that in many cases, bank sponsors and directors have little understanding of the importance of capital. "Some believe that having deposits or liquidity is enough. But strong capital is essential for long-term stability," he said.

Banks with better governance and professional management remain in relatively stronger positions, maintaining capital ratios of around 13–14%, he added.

To address the crisis, he emphasised the need for fresh capital injections, either through retained earnings or new share issuance. However, he noted that raising capital remains challenging in the current economic climate due to weak business profits and low investor confidence.

Meanwhile, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, described the situation as a "systemic risk".

According to him, the capital shortage has made banks increasingly risk-averse, leading to a noticeable slowdown in private sector credit growth. Many banks are now surviving on liquidity support from the central bank.

He also warned that rising credit risk in Bangladesh is discouraging foreign banks from doing business with local institutions, which is increasing the country's cost of financing.

To tackle the crisis, Zahid suggested swift legal resolution of so-called "zombie" institutions, the introduction of an effective bank resolution framework and stronger risk-based supervision.

He also stressed the importance of publicly identifying major defaulters and ensuring strict punishment to restore discipline in the market.

Analysts say the deepening capital crisis in the banking sector is no longer confined to financial institutions alone. Without urgent structural reforms, improved governance and effective regulatory enforcement, the risks could spread to the wider economy.

Bangladesh's banking sector is bearing a burden of non-performing loans (NPLs) having ballooned to some Tk 5.45 trillion as of December 31, 2025, underlining deep-rooted weaknesses in credit discipline and financial oversight.Bangladesh economic report

The figure was disclosed Monday in the Jatiya Sangsad by Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, along with a list of top defaulters placed in the House.

He came up with the disclosure in response to a written question from lawmaker Md. Abul Hasnat of Comilla-4. The session was presided over by Deputy Speaker Kaiser Kamal.

In a move that sheds light on the concentration of financial risks, the minister tabled a list of the country's top 20 loan defaulters-dominated by large industrial and trading groups, many of which have longstanding ties to the banking system.

Multiple entities linked to S Alam Group feature prominently, alongside firms associated with Beximco and other major business houses.

Analysts say the clustering of defaults within a handful of conglomerates reflects "systemic governance failures and persistent concerns over connected lending".

Following is the list of top 20 defaulters presented in the House:

(1) S Alam Super Edible Oil Limited (2) S Alam Vegetable Oil Limited (3)S Alam Refined Sugar Industries Limited (4) S Alam Cold Rolled Steels Limited (5) Sonali Traders (6) Bangladesh Export Import Company Limited (Beximco) (7) Global Trading Corporation Limited (8) Chattogram Ispat Limited (9) S Alam Trading Company Private Limited (10) Infinite CR Strips Industries Limited (11) Keya Cosmetics Limited (12) Deshbandhu Sugar Mills Limited (13) PowerPac Mutiyara Keraniganj Power Plant Limited (14) PowerPac Mutiyara Jamalpur Power Plant Limited (15) Pacific Bangladesh Telecom Limited (16) Karnaphuli Foods Private Limited (17) Murad Enterprise (18) CLC Power Company Limited (19) Beximco Communications Limited (20) Rongdhonu Builders Private Limited.

The finance minister told parliament that the government, in coordination with Bangladesh Bank, is pursuing a range of measures to recover default loans. The steps include legal action under existing frameworks.

"However, recovery efforts continue to be hampered by lengthy judicial processes and court-imposed stays, which in some cases allow defaulted loans to be temporarily reclassified as regular."

Also disclosed in parliament that loans taken from banks and financial institutions under the names of current Members of Parliament (MPs) and their affiliated businesses total over Tk 111.17 billion or Tk 11,117 crore 31 lakh and more than Tk 33.3 billion of it is classified as defaulted loans.

The Finance Minister disclosed this in parliament on a question about the loan portfolios of the lawmakers in the newly elected Jatiya Sangsad.

The minister came up with the information during the question-and-answer session on the ninth day of the first session of the 13th National Parliament.

In response to another written question from Md. Abul Hasnat, the Finance Minister stated that the current outstanding loans taken from banks and financial institutions by MPs and enterprises owned by them amount to such a figure.Personal finance consulting

"A significant portion of these loans has already been classified as defaulted," the minister informed the House.

However, he added on a special note that "due to court orders or stay directives, a portion of these default loans may have been reported as regular loans".

Ballooning default loans from banks and nonbanks happen to be a big problem in Bangladesh's financial sector.

On this score, the minister said the government was preparing to take a tougher stance on mounting non-performing loans, with plans to publish a list of "willful defaulters" and introduce sweeping legal and institutional reforms to bolster loan recovery.

He was responding to a written question from Md. Abul Hasnat.

The proposed measures signal a more assertive policy approach aimed at addressing structural weaknesses in Bangladesh's banking sector, where loan defaults have accumulated to record levels.

A key element of the plan is the publication of separate lists identifying both general defaulters and "willful defaulters"-borrowers deemed capable of repayment but unwilling to do so.

Authorities also intend to introduce a cap on the total amount any private enterprise can borrow across the entire banking system, in an effort to limit excessive credit concentration.

The government is simultaneously working on establishing a legal framework to enable private-sector Asset Management Companies (AMCs), which would take over and manage distressed assets, thereby facilitating faster resolution of bad loans.

The finance minister outlined a series of legal reforms currently under way, including amendments to the Bank Company Act, the Negotiable Instruments Act, the Artha Rin Adalat Act, and bankruptcy laws, with the aim of expediting loan-recovery processes and strengthening enforcement mechanisms.

Officials are also seeking to address a persistent impediment to recovery efforts-court injunctions.

"Many defaulters file writ petitions that delay or suspend recovery proceedings. The government plans to consult the Attorney-General to devise measures that would limit such legal bottlenecks."

To improve adjudication, the authorities are considering incorporating experienced bankers into panels or jury boards in Artha Rin Adalats (loan courts), allowing complex financial disputes to be resolved more efficiently.Personal finance consulting

At the same time, policymakers are looking to introduce incentives for compliant borrowers. Existing policies will be updated to reward "good borrowers" who regularly service their loans, potentially improving credit discipline across the system.

The minister also indicates that some of the tough punitive measures currently reserved for willful defaulters could be extended to general defaulters through legal reforms, further tightening accountability.

In addition, the government is revising rescheduling policies for short-term agricultural loans to better support farmers.

Eight years ago on 22 March, Dhaka erupted in celebration. A colourful procession rolled out from Doyel Chattar, festooned with banners and buoyed by orchestra music. Balloons were released at Dhaka University.

Back then, LDC graduation was framed as a national triumph, a validation of governance, and, crucially, a legacy project of the now-ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Today, that narrative is unravelling.

A newly released UN Graduation Readiness Assessment tells a far more sobering story: Bangladesh may have met the formal thresholds to graduate from the Least Developed Country category, but it remains structurally unprepared for what comes next.

And that distinction between eligibility and readiness is now at the heart of a critical policy reversal as the current government is looking to defer the graduation.

The illusion of readiness

The United Nations has long emphasised a simple but often ignored principle that graduating from LDC status is not just about crossing statistical thresholds. It is about ensuring that development gains are not reversed once international support mechanisms are withdrawn.

By that standard, Bangladesh's preparedness is deeply questionable.

The assessment identifies four core vulnerabilities that continue to define the economy: dependence on international support measures, weak trade diversification, limited domestic resource mobilisation, and acute exposure to climate risks.

Take domestic resource mobilisation for instance. Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest globally, severely limiting fiscal space. Even medium-term targets fall short of what is required for a lower-middle-income economy.

In practical terms, this means the state lacks the capacity to absorb shocks — whether from the loss of trade preferences, reduced concessional financing, or external volatility. And the economy is yet to recover from the turbulence it faced from 2022 to 2025.

The report states that weak revenue mobilisation is "one of the most binding preparedness gaps" in Bangladesh's transition.

A narrow economy in a changing world

If fiscal weakness is one pillar of vulnerability, export concentration is another.

Bangladesh's export success has been built overwhelmingly on a single sector — ready-made garments. Apparel accounts for over 80% of merchandise exports, with limited diversification even within the sector itself.

This model worked under LDC conditions, where preferential market access and policy flexibilities provided a cushion. But post-graduation, that cushion disappears.

The UN assessment warns that Bangladesh remains "anchored in a narrow export base and limited industrial upgrading", with low value addition and constrained pathways for diversification.

Upon graduation, preference erosion could translate into billions in lost exports, eroding competitiveness at a time when global markets are already tightening.

Economic growth specialist and COO of Rancon Infrastructure and Engineering Subail Bin Alam's assessment captures this risk with precision.

"For too long, the RMG sector has been our safety net, accounting for over 80% of our exports. However, the 'LDC Graduation' means we are about to lose Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) benefits, which could result in an estimated $8 billion in annual export losses. Beyond apparel, the export basket is dominated by low-complexity products, reflecting a pronounced capability gap and limited scope for adjacent diversification," he explained.

In other words, Bangladesh is attempting to graduate with an economic structure that still resembles that of an LDC.

A preparatory period lost to crisis

If the structural weaknesses are longstanding, the failure of preparation is more recent — and more damning.

The five-year preparatory period, granted by the UN to ensure a smooth transition, was meant to be a time of reform, coordination, and strategic planning. Instead, it became a period of crisis management.

The UN report notes that the past five years were "largely consumed by crisis management, economic stabilisation and political survival," rather than long-term preparation.

This is consistent with the government's own admission. In its letter to the UN Committee for Development Policy, Bangladesh acknowledged that the preparatory period "has not functioned as intended".

Global shocks played a role — the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, tightening financial conditions. But domestic factors were equally significant: financial sector irregularities, policy rigidity, and ultimately, the political upheaval of August 2024.

The result is an economy entering 2026 with depleted reserves, high inflation, weak investment, and limited fiscal space.

As applied macroeconomist and Director of Sydney Policy Analysis Centre Jyoti Rahman puts it, "The economic landscape has been severely battered. Honestly, from an external perspective, it is clear the economy is caught in a long-term entanglement. We saw a total stagnation of private investment throughout 2025 following the July Uprising. We have entered 2026 facing deep economic uncertainty, exacerbated by global conflicts and an acute energy crisis."

He adds a crucial point, "The transition from LDC status is an inevitable and necessary milestone. However, the true challenge lies in our preparation."

That preparation, by most accounts, has been inadequate.

The cost of policy hubris

In retrospect, the problem was not the ambition to graduate. It was the politicisation of that ambition.

Under the previous Awami regime, LDC graduation was framed less as a technical process and more as a symbolic victory. The 2018 celebrations were not an isolated event — they reflected a broader narrative that equated eligibility with readiness.

That narrative discouraged caution.

"For too long, the RMG sector has been our safety net, accounting for over 80% of our exports. However, the 'LDC Graduation' means we are about to lose Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) benefits, which could result in an estimated $8 billion in annual export losses. Beyond apparel, the export basket is dominated by low-complexity products, reflecting a pronounced capability gap and limited scope for adjacent diversification."
Subail Bin Alam, economic growth specialist and COO, Rancon Infrastructure and Engineering

Economists, business leaders, and development practitioners had, for years, urged a more measured approach. After the Covid-19 shock and the 2022 dollar crisis, calls for deferral grew louder.

Yet these concerns were largely ignored.

When Bangladesh government finally requested 3 years deferral for LDC graduation in February, 2026, Dr Fahmida Khatun, the Executive Director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) told TBS, "In the international arena, such decisions of time extensions are not driven by emotion or political rhetoric, but rather based strictly on data, statistics, and measurable indicators."

The data, it now appears, was pointing in a different direction all along.

Why deferral makes economic sense

Against this backdrop, the current government's decision to seek a three-year deferral is a necessary recalibration. Especially given the looming economic crisis due to the ongoing Iran War.

First, time is needed to negotiate post-LDC trade arrangements.

BGMEA President Mahmudul Hasan Khan said, "New trade opportunities — such as Free Trade Agreements, Preferential Trade Agreements or Economic Partnership Agreements — may open up. But these agreements do not materialise overnight. They require careful preparation, technical analysis, and lengthy negotiations. If rushed, there is a risk of securing unfavourable terms or overlooking key national interests."

At the same time, macroeconomic stability must be restored.

Jyoti Rahman explained, "In the immediate term, the government's primary duty is to maintain macroeconomic stability. It is about managed stability rather than just obsessing over the absolute reserve figure."

Moreover, structural reforms must be accelerated — particularly in taxation, banking, and the investment climate. As Subail Bin Alam cautioned, "When banks are burdened by bad debt, they stop lending to the 'missing middle', the SMEs. We cannot build a modern economy if our entrepreneurs are forced to borrow at 14–16% interest rates while competing against global players who have access to capital at 4–5%."

The consequences of proceeding without adequate preparation are not hypothetical.

Loss of trade preferences could erode export competitiveness. Reduced concessional financing could strain public finances. Withdrawal of policy flexibilities could limit industrial policy options.

The UN assessment points out that these risks are compounded by Bangladesh's continued reliance on LDC-specific support measures and limited institutional capacity to manage their withdrawal.

In short, the country risks losing the benefits of LDC status before it has built the resilience required to operate without them.

This is why the report warns that graduation, under current conditions, could "disrupt development gains".

That is not a risk any responsible government should take.

What must be done next

Deferral, however, is not a solution in itself. It is an opportunity — one that must be used wisely. Over the years, the experts have pointed out the priorities. Now the necessary measures need to be taken to increase our preparedness.

"At this juncture, we need more than just a budget; we need a detailed roadmap. The government should use the upcoming budget to outline exactly how they plan to achieve their long-term growth targets," Jyoti Rahman said.

However the Awami regime portrayed it, LDC graduation was never meant to be a trophy. It was meant to be a transition. For too long, that distinction was blurred.

Today, the reality is unavoidable: Bangladesh is not yet ready to graduate in a way that is smooth, sustainable, and irreversible. The data says so. The experts say so. Even the government, implicitly, acknowledges it.

And in policymaking, that is often the hardest and most necessary step.

Shadique Mahbub Islam is a journalist.

PH Creative (BD) Limited, a South Korean company, will set up a manufacturing facility at the Bepza Economic Zone (Bepza EZ) in Mirsharai, Chattogram.

The company will produce a wide range of items, including steel, aluminium and iron frames; fibreglass poles; tents; sleeping bags; camping chairs; and various tent accessories such as PVC wear covers, caps, chair patches, hangers and hammers.

It will also manufacture trolley bags, handbags and garment accessories, including toggles and beads.

The investment will create employment opportunities for around 2,000 Bangladeshi nationals, according to a press release.

Md Tanvir Hossain, executive director for investment promotion at the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza), and Jin Ho Bae, chairman of PH Creative (BD) Limited, signed the agreement at the Bepza Complex in Dhaka today.

Mohammad Moazzem Hossain, executive chairman of Bepza, attended the signing ceremony and thanked the South Korean company for choosing Bangladesh, particularly the Bepza Economic Zone, as its investment destination.

He also encouraged the firm and other South Korean investors to explore further opportunities in high-tech sectors, especially semiconductors and electronic products.

The government is set to borrow an additional Tk 5,000 crore from the banking sector through a special auction of 91-day treasury bills on April 8, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB) officials.

This will be the new government’s second such off-cycle borrowing in just over a week, which will effectively push the total bank borrowing for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) well past the full-year target set in the budget.

The surge in borrowing comes as the government struggles to balance rising expenditure against weak revenue mobilisation.

Spending pressures have mounted from several fronts: emergency fuel oil purchases amid elevated global energy costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, new welfare initiatives including the family card scheme and farm loan waivers, and broader expansion in public outlays, said officials familiar with the matter.

Election expenditure by the interim government had also drained state funds.

At the same time, the National Board of Revenue fell short of its eight-month collection target by 28 percent, leaving a gap of Tk 71,472 crore.

According to central bank data, the government had already raised Tk 5,000 crore through a similar special auction on April 1. Combined with regular borrowing, the two tranches will effectively breach the Tk 1,04,000 crore ceiling set for banking system borrowing in the FY26 budget.

Between July last year and April 1, the interim government and the new BNP-led government had together borrowed at least Tk 1,03,526 crore, or 99.54 percent of the annual target, with nearly three months of the fiscal year still remaining.

A year earlier, net borrowing over the same period stood at Tk 27,739 crore.

Of the amount borrowed so far this fiscal year, Tk 17,386 crore came from the central bank directly, Tk 71,575 crore from commercial banks, and Tk 9,564 crore from non-bank sources.

As per the FY26 budget, borrowing targets from non-banking systems and foreign sources were set at Tk 21,000 crore and Tk 96,000 crore respectively.

Analysts note that borrowing directly from the central bank carries particular inflation risks. However, a structural factor has enabled the current pace of commercial bank borrowing: anaemic private sector credit demand.

Private sector credit growth fell to a decade-low of 6.03 percent in January and remained unchanged in February, BB data show. With few private borrowers, commercial banks have been willing to lend to the government instead.

“The government generally borrows through special treasury bills when its demand for funds increases,” said Md Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management. “Weak revenue collection could also be driving the special auction.”

The government finances budget deficits and public expenditure by issuing treasury bills – short-term instruments – and bonds for longer tenors. These are sold through the central bank to commercial banks, financial institutions, and individual investors, and are considered low-risk investments.

With banking system borrowing already at the annual ceiling and the fiscal year not yet done, economists warn the trajectory raises fresh concerns about inflation, crowding out of private investment, and longer-term fiscal sustainability.

Inflation eased to 8.71 percent in March, offering slight relief to consumers, but analysts warn that prices may remain sticky in the coming months as the US-Israel war on Iran drives up costs and disrupts supply chains.

Food price inflation fell to 8.24 percent from 9.3 percent the previous month, according to data released yesterday by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Non-food inflation, however, edged up to 9.09 percent from 9.01 percent in February.

The moderation follows a spike to 9.13 percent in February, a ten-month high, when higher food prices ahead of Ramadan and increased election-related spending fuelled demand, pushing the Consumer Price Index.

Md Deen Islam, professor of economics at Dhaka University, said, “Food prices carry a large weight in the consumer basket, and the decline in inflation might be driven mainly by a moderation in food prices.”

Three factors -- improved supply of food due to no major climate shock, the lagged effects of relatively tighter monetary policy, and subdued aggregate demand -- may have helped contain overall price increases, he added.

However, the persistence and slight increase in non-food inflation to 9.09 percent signal that underlying cost pressures in the economy remain strong, noted the professor.

“Non-food components such as energy, transport, and imported goods continue to be affected by exchange rate depreciation and elevated global prices,” he said.

Bangladesh has been grappling with stubborn inflation for more than three years, with the burden falling hardest on poor and low-income households, who spend a disproportionate share of their earnings on food.

In March, rural inflation was marginally higher at 8.72 percent compared to 8.68 percent in urban areas.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said food inflation above 8 percent shows that price pressures persist.

“A slight easing in March is not unusual, but it does not mean inflationary pressure has disappeared,” he said.

Birupaksha Paul, professor of economics at the State University of New York, echoed the sentiment, saying the decline in inflation is not significant. “Expected inflation is on the rise and most part of it is fear driven.”

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI), said the March moderation should be read with caution.

“The spike observed in February was largely driven by a temporary surge in consumption, typically associated with heightened political and electoral activity.

“Such demand-side pressures tend to be short-lived, and the subsequent correction in March reflects the dissipation of this transient effect rather than a structural easing of inflationary pressures,” he said.

The economist pointed out that the broader inflation outlook remains fragile. Rising global fuel costs from the Middle East conflict could force adjustments in administered energy prices, with direct and second-round effects on transport, production, and food supply chains.

Besides, he added, “Supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict could elevate import costs, particularly for essential commodities, thereby feeding into domestic inflation.”

Hussain, meanwhile, noted that government-set fuel prices remained unchanged, with even an expected April adjustment deferred. “If fuel prices had been adjusted at the pump level, the impact would have shown up in the CPI,” he said. “But the impact is inevitable.”

For instance, he pointed out that the exchange rate already saw an impact in March. In the interbank market, the rate increased by nearly one taka. But the effect of that on import prices will take time -- likely showing up in April -- because payments for March imports were largely made earlier.

Prof Islam said the divergence between declining food inflation and rising non-food inflation suggests the recent improvement is narrow and not yet indicative of a broad-based disinflation.

He expects inflation to remain relatively sticky in the near term, with the Middle East conflict posing a significant upside risk.

In this context, PRI’s Rahman said macroeconomic management must stay vigilant.

He backed Bangladesh Bank’s contractionary monetary policy stance as “necessary to contain demand-side pressures,” but added that monetary policy alone would not suffice.

“Complementary fiscal discipline and targeted supply-side interventions, particularly to stabilise food markets, will be critical in anchoring inflation expectations and safeguarding macroeconomic stability in the months ahead,” he said.

OPEC+ agreed ‌on Sunday to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil route - since the end of February and cut ​exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise ​production even before the conflict began.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high close to $120 a barrel, translating into soaring ⁠prices for transport fuels which are pressuring consumers and businesses across the globe, and triggering government action to conserve supplies.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 bpd ​represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, OPEC+ sources have said. Consultancy ​Energy Aspects called the increase "academic" as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

"In reality it adds very few barrels to the market," said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"When the Strait of Hormuz is closed additional barrels from OPEC+ become largely irrelevant."

OPEC+ CONCERNED ABOUT ATTACKS ON ENERGY ASSETS

Eight members of ​OPEC+ agreed to the increase in May quotas at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others ​such as Russia are unable to increase output - in Moscow's case due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine.

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from ‌missile and ⁠drone attacks has also been severe. Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.

A separate OPEC+ panel that also met on Sunday, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Two months into the Iran war, and the feds, still on the sidelines, are waiting—the riskiest strategy of all.

Iran said on Saturday Iraq was from any ​restrictions to transit Hormuz, and shipping ​data on Sunday showed a tanker ⁠loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait. Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

WAR CAUSES WORLD'S WORST OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION

May's OPEC+ increase is the ​same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the ​war began to disrupt ⁠oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15% of global supply.

Oil prices could spike above $150 - an all-time high - if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on Thursday.

OPEC+ groups 22 members including Iran. In recent years ⁠only the ​eight countries meeting on Sunday have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in ​2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.

The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to ​March 2026.

The eight hold their next meeting on May 3.

Crude oil prices opened higher on Monday, with US benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 1.86 percent to $113.62 a barrel, as the war in the Middle East continues to squeeze global energy supplies.

North Sea Brent crude was also higher at the week's market opening, climbing 1.16 percent to $110.30 a barrel.

President Donald Trump has set a Tuesday deadline for Iran to end the war and reopen shipping in the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, threatening in an expletive-laden social media post Sunday to strike the country's power plants and bridges if it did not comply.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, before later telling Fox News he thought there was a "good chance" Iran would agree to a deal on Monday.

The war, entering its sixth week since the US and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, has engulfed the Middle East in conflict and upended the global economy.

Iran has virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas transits, sending petroleum prices skyrocketing.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has ordered a formal enquiry into Robi Axiata, the country's second-largest mobile network operator, over alleged financial irregularities, governance concerns and disclosure failures.

The decision was taken in the last week of March, when the Commission exercised its statutory authority to launch an investigation and appoint a dedicated enquiry team.

BSEC director and spokesman Abul Kalam told TBS that the investigation committee was formed based on specific complaints received by the regulator. He said the complaints involve possible financial irregularities and violations of laws and regulations.

The committee will closely examine financial records, compliance with securities rules, corporate governance practices, and whether any material information was concealed or misreported, Kalam said.

He added that the purpose of the investigation is to verify the facts and recommend appropriate actions based on the findings.

Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory officer of Robi Axiata, said, "We are conducting all our activities in full compliance with applicable laws and regulations and will provide all necessary support to the relevant regulatory authority."

On Sunday, the company's share price fell 2.40% to Tk28.50 on the DSE.

Probe committee

In an official order, BSEC said the enquiry will focus on issues outlined in the Terms of Reference, including accounting treatment, related-party transactions, corporate governance practices, and compliance with disclosure requirements during the financial years 2021 and 2022.

The three-member enquiry committee, comprises Md Rafiqunnabi, deputy director of BSEC; Tanmoy Kumar Ghosh, assistant director of BSEC; and Gias Uddin, manager of the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The committee has been instructed to complete the enquiry and submit its report within 60 working days from the date of the order.

Accounting and management review

One of the central areas of investigation involves alleged accounting irregularities, specifically claims of "masking", where operating expenditures were reportedly misclassified as capital expenditures in FY21 and FY22.

The regulator will examine the scale of such misclassifications, identify potential beneficiaries, and assess the overall financial impact on the company's reported performance.

The inquiry will also assess the involvement of senior management, including the chief executive officer, chief financial officer and the board audit committee, to determine whether these practices were approved, ignored or concealed.

Related-party transactions, governance

Another key focus area is conflicts of interest and related-party transactions. The BSEC will examine the dual role of Thayaparan S Sangarapillai, who served as chairman of Robi Axiata while also acting as an independent director of EDOTCO Group Sdn Bhd from 2016 to 2025.

All transactions between Robi Axiata and EDOTCO, including lease agreements, infrastructure-sharing arrangements and any share transfers, will be reviewed to determine whether they were conducted at arm's length or resulted in any value leakage to Axiata Group Berhad or its affiliates.

Corporate governance issues are also under scrutiny. The inquiry will investigate the resignations of independent directors Akhtar Sanjida Kasem and Kamran Bakr, who reportedly stepped down citing "undue interference" in board affairs.

The regulator will also review the fairness and independence of an internal inquiry process chaired by Sangarapillai, particularly in light of previous allegations against him.

The investigation will assess whether principles of natural justice, impartiality and shareholder protection were properly upheld.

Disclosure and shareholder concerns

In addition, the Commission will examine Robi Axiata's annual reports for 2021 and 2022 to determine whether there were any omissions of material information.

Compliance relating to the disclosure of material non-operating income and expenses, as well as transparency in related-party transactions, will also be reviewed.

Shareholder concerns raised at the company's last annual general meeting will be part of the enquiry, particularly issues related to expenses on legal proceedings and forensic audit costs, as well as the company's alleged lack of response to investor queries.

Financial performance

Robi Axiata posted a net profit of Tk937 crore in 2025, its first annual profit since listing on the stock exchange five years ago. The earnings represent a 33.3% year-on-year increase compared to 2024.

Riding on improved profitability, the board recommended a 17.5% cash dividend, or Tk1.75 per share, the highest since its market debut in 2020.

The proposed payout accounts for 97.8% of the company's total profit for the year. In 2024, Robi Axiata declared a 15% cash dividend.

Market stakeholders have urged the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) to expedite the listing of profitable state-owned enterprises, calling on the regulator to present the issue to the newly elected government as a priority to help revive the struggling capital market.

The call came during a monthly coordination meeting held at the commission's headquarters today (5 April), where senior officials, including Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood and other commissioners, met with representatives from various market institutions and stakeholder groups.

The meeting focused on a wide range of pressing issues affecting the country's capital market, with particular emphasis on increasing the supply of quality stocks.

Participants stressed that the prolonged absence of new listings has significantly weakened investor confidence and reduced market depth.

Although new initial public offering (IPO) regulations have already been introduced, they noted that the pipeline of fresh listings remains thin. In this context, the listing of profitable government-owned companies was identified as one of the most effective ways to inject momentum into the market.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh, told The Business Standard that the market has been in decline for an extended period and requires immediate intervention.

He said initiatives to list state-owned enterprises had been taken during the interim government's tenure, with some preparatory work already completed. With a new government now in place, he urged the regulator to act swiftly to move the process forward.

Highlighting a specific case, he pointed to Central Depository Bangladesh Limited as a profitable institution that continues to generate strong earnings from its core operations but remains unlisted.

He called for expedited steps to bring the company to the market, saying such a move would enhance transparency and offer investors access to a fundamentally strong entity.

Governance reforms, market development

Another key issue raised at the meeting was the long-pending review of the demutualisation scheme of the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Stakeholders expressed concern over the lack of visible progress in revisiting the framework, which they said is essential for improving governance and operational efficiency at the bourse.

In response, the BSEC chairman assured participants that the commission would take necessary steps in this regard.

The discussion also covered broader reform initiatives, including efforts to upgrade the market from frontier to emerging status, implementation of electronic know-your-customer (e-KYC) systems, and plans to launch a commodity exchange.

Participants stressed the need for stronger coordination among market institutions, improved corporate governance, and stricter measures to prevent manipulation and irregularities.

They also discussed expanding investor education programmes, introducing new financial products, and ensuring the accuracy of price-sensitive information disclosures.

Addressing investor protection, stakeholders highlighted the importance of compensating affected investors through dedicated protection funds, as well as resolving issues related to negative equity and unrealised losses.

During the meeting, the BSEC Chairman Maqsood reiterated the commission's commitment to ongoing reforms, noting that major regulatory frameworks – including new margin rules, mutual fund regulations, and public offering rules – have already been introduced.

He added that corporate governance regulations are in the pipeline and will be finalised soon.

The chairman said bringing large public-interest companies into the capital market remains a top priority for the regulator, but achieving this would require strong government support and cooperation from all relevant stakeholders.

The country's private sector credit growth fell to a historic low of 6.03% in February, driven by prolonged political instability and a high interest rate regime. Bankers and business leaders say that due to the Iran war, a recovery in credit growth is unlikely in the near future.

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bank, credit growth edged down from 6.1% in December, continuing a sharp decline from 10.13% recorded in July 2024.

Although there was a brief spike to 6.58% in November, analysts attribute this to loan restructuring ahead of the 12 February national election, rather than genuine new investment in productive sectors.

In its monetary policy statement for January-June 2026, the central bank attributed the slowdown to tight monetary conditions, increased government borrowing to finance the budget deficit, and subdued loan demand amid ongoing uncertainty over new investment decisions.

Sohail RK Hussain, Managing Director of Bank Asia PLC, told TBS, "There was an election in early February. After the election, when the government began focusing on private sector growth, the unexpected challenge of the Iran war emerged."

He added, "Our investment outlook now largely depends on when the war ends. Even if the war stops now, credit growth will not recover for the next few months."

"The biggest challenge for businesses at the moment is energy. Importing fuel at competitive prices will raise costs, putting pressure on businesses. This may require further increases in interest rates to control inflation."

"Overall, the coming months will be quite challenging – particularly in terms of inflation, rising dollar exchange rates, and demand for export products."

Private credit growth dips to record low at 6%

The decline has been consistent in recent months, with growth recorded at 6.29% in September, 6.35% in August, 6.52% in July, 6.40% in June, 7.17% in May, and 7.5% in April. In contrast, private sector credit growth stood at 10.13% in July 2024 before dropping sharply following the political transition in August.

Newly appointed central bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has indicated that policy support will be introduced to revive private sector lending and restore economic momentum.

On his first day in office, he said lending rates would be gradually reduced to encourage investment, and reopening closed factories and businesses would be essential to revitalise economic activity-signalling a possible shift away from the prolonged contractionary monetary stance.

However, despite the governor's assurance of lowering lending rates, the central bank has not yet taken steps to reduce policy rates due to new challenges such as the Iran war.

A deputy managing director of Sonali Bank, speaking anonymously, told TBS that investment had remained low due to prolonged political uncertainty. Although credit growth was expected to rise under an elected government, the war has introduced fresh uncertainty.

He said, "Businesses want to invest, but there is no assurance of energy supply. The government's current method of procuring fuel is also costly, which will increase investment costs. At the same time, banks' loan recovery situation is very weak. Many clients have rescheduled loans under policy support, creating pressure on cash flow and reducing the capacity to issue new loans."

Syed Mahbubur Rahman told TBS that banks are currently lending at around 11% interest while paying similar rates on deposits, leaving very thin margins.

He noted that although high lending rates are a constraint, investors prioritise reliable infrastructure – such as gas, electricity, and port facilities – over financing conditions.

Persistent energy shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, he said, have prevented both expansion by existing businesses and entry by new investors.

Tight monetary policy strains banking sector, slows deposit and credit growth: Planning Commission report

A major factor behind the slowdown in credit growth has been increased government borrowing from banks. Between July and 19 March of the 2025-26 fiscal year, net credit to the government reached Tk98,000 crore, equivalent to 94.73% of the revised annual target of Tk1.18 lakh crore.

Banks are also struggling with rising non-performing loans, which climbed to a record Tk5.57 lakh crore by the end of December 2025 – about one-third of total outstanding loans.

High default levels have weakened bank capital positions, increased provisioning requirements, and made lenders more cautious in approving new loans.

Liquidity pressures and slow deposit growth have further constrained lending capacity. In an effort to curb inflation, the central bank earlier raised its policy rate to 10%, pushing commercial lending rates close to 13.5% and discouraging businesses – especially small and medium enterprises – from taking new loans.

The effects of weak credit growth are increasingly visible across the economy. Imports of capital machinery have declined, signalling slower industrial expansion, while reduced investment has dampened money circulation. Many factories are operating below capacity, consumer demand remains weak, and private sector job creation has slowed.