The US has stepped in to shield the global economy from the oil crunch triggered by the Iran war by boosting exports, selectively easing sanctions and tapping strategic reserves. The conflict may be denting Washington’s standing in some quarters, but it is also cementing its transformation into the world’s dominant energy superpower.

Unlike in previous oil crises, the Organization ​of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been left largely powerless. The near-hermetic closure of the Strait of Hormuz trapped 13 percent of global oil supplies in the Gulf and forced Gulf producers to shut in ‌around 9 million barrels per day of output, stripping the group of its most potent lever: spare production capacity.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter and Opec’s de facto leader, has maximized exports through its alternative pipeline route bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea. But even that has been insufficient to offset the scale of the disruption.

Enter the United States.

With the world’s largest oil industry – surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia in production in 2018 – and the currency underpinning the global trading system, the US has extraordinary leverage over energy markets. This power is comparable, in some ​respects, to Opec’s historic ability to recalibrate output in response to shifts in global supply and demand. And Washington hasn’t been shy about using it.

OIL FIREPOWER

US oil exports have soared in recent weeks, helping to ​temper the acute energy supply shock emanating from the Middle East, including the refined product squeeze.

Total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all-time high of 12.9 million bpd, of which refined products accounted for over 60 percent, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Seaborne US oil exports are set to climb to a record 9.6 million bpd in April, with flows to Asia nearly doubling ​from pre-war levels to 2.5 million bpd, according to data analytics firm Kpler.

This surge has helped cushion Asian economies - among the most exposed to Gulf supply losses - from even sharper price spikes.

For US producers, the Iran war has ​delivered a sizeable windfall. The value of crude and refined product exports has increased by around $32 billion compared with pre-war prices, according to ROI calculations, boosting both corporate earnings and tax receipts.

American oil firepower does not end with production. Washington agreed in March to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in several tranches through 2027 as part of a coordinated global emergency drawdown of 400 million barrels.

The SPR stood at around 405 million barrels by April 17, down from 415 million barrels at ​the start of the war - meaning the buffer against further supply shortages remains ample.

THE SANCTIONED BARRELS

Washington has yet another tool to influence global energy supplies: economic sanctions.

Since March, the US has selectively loosened restrictions on purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. The ​Trump administration on April 17 renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month.

The impact has been swift. Volumes of Russian oil stored on tankers fell from a record high of more than 13 ‌million barrels at the end of January to just 2.9 million barrels by April 24, as buyers swarmed back in.

By bolstering Moscow and Tehran’s revenues - even temporarily - these measures are arguably undermining broader US foreign policy goals.

The US administration has recently backtracked on part of this strategy. It did not renew a separate 30-day waiver issued on March 20 that allowed purchases of around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil held at sea and simultaneously imposed its own Hormuz blockade to squeeze Tehran’s revenues.

Sanctions will always involve a delicate balance between exacting pressure and limiting collateral damage to the global energy system. But the US is still the one calling the shots.

Taken together, these measures show how the ​US has emerged as a de facto “swing supplier” - and ​what Uncle Sam giveth, he can also taketh away.

US President Donald Trump could, in theory, impose restrictions or outright bans on some US energy exports to cool rising domestic fuel prices - an especially sensitive political issue ahead of the midterm elections in November. Such a move would almost certainly send international energy prices sharply higher.

An export ban remains unlikely, however. It would risk severe ​disruption to US oil production and refining systems that are structurally geared toward exporting surplus volumes. It would also strain relations with allies in Asia, Europe ​and Latin America who are relying heavily on the US to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels and could prompt retaliatory measures.

The US’s powers certainly are not unlimited. Unlike Opec – or its wider producer alliance including Russia known as Opec+ – the US energy industry remains largely bound by market economics. Washington cannot instruct companies to raise or cut output at will, nor can it marshal spare production capacity as Gulf producers traditionally have. In that sense, the US cannot fully replicate Opec’s role as a manager of global supply.

What it can do is respond - ​fast, and at scale. Through a combination of public policy and private market forces, Washington has eased at least some of the pain for ​consumers and revealed a level of market influence unmatched since Opec’s heyday.

The Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) has proposed abolishing the 20% supplementary duty on mobile talk-time and data, along with other tax cuts, saying the current structure is restricting growth and digital inclusion.

The proposals were placed at a pre-budget meeting with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Agargaon, Dhaka, yesterday (27 April).

AMTOB said operators currently pay about 56% of gross revenue in taxes, VAT and other charges, compared to a global average of 22% and 26% in Asia-Pacific countries.

Secretary General Lt Col Mohammad Zulfiqar (Retd) said the tax burden rises further during spectrum auctions, weakening investment capacity and long-term sustainability.

The association also demanded removal of the 1% surcharge on telecom services and Tk300 VAT on SIM and e-SIM replacement, saying it discourages new users, especially low-income groups.

The body further proposed reducing corporate tax rates from 40% (listed) and 45% (non-listed) to regional levels.

In the same meeting, tobacco sector representatives proposed changes to the tax system. British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATB) proposed replacing the ad-valorem system with a specific tax system.

Arafat Jaigirdar of BATB said, "As the current tax rate is up to 83%, including VAT, supplementary duty, and surcharge, there will be limited scope for increasing government revenue in the future. Therefore, the existing ad valorem system can be replaced with a specific tax system."

He said the change would increase revenue and reduce pressure on companies. Japan Tobacco International Bangladesh and Philip Morris Bangladesh supported the proposal.

However, Abul Khair Tobacco opposed the proposal and suggested increasing prices in the upper three tiers under the existing system, claiming it could generate an additional Tk10,000 crore annually. The tobacco sector currently contributes about Tk50,000 crore to government revenue each year.

National Board of Revenue Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said cigarette prices and tax rates would be reviewed in line with South Asian standards.

The Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association (BSMA) urged the government to reduce income tax, customs duties and VAT on the steel sector in FY2026-27, citing pressure from rising costs, currency depreciation and global instability.

BSMA President Mohammad Jahangir Alam said the steel industry is facing a deep crisis due to depreciation of the taka, dollar shortage, high interest rates, rising utility costs and increased taxes and VAT in FY2025-26. He also cited political instability, the COVID-19 impact, the Russia-Ukraine war and the slowdown in infrastructure projects.

BSMA proposed reducing advance income tax on raw material imports to Tk500 from Tk600, cutting tax deducted at source on rod sales to 1% from 2%, reducing turnover tax to 0.5% from 1%, and allowing adjustment of advance tax.

The association said a new VAT of Tk1,800 per metric tonne has been imposed on imported raw materials despite earlier duty withdrawal. It called for the rationalisation of taxes and duties in the next budget.

NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said not all demands could be met due to revenue constraints, but reasonable proposals would be considered. He said HS code issues would be reviewed and import values aligned with international prices.

Multiple trade bodies, including steel, re-rolling mills, iron importers, chemical importers, paint, cosmetics, lubricants, fisheries, marine products, auto parts and electronics associations, attended the meeting.

Bangladesh Bank has verbally instructed commercial banks to lower the buying rate of US dollars further, apparently in efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market, according to official sources.

The instruction set the banks to buy remittances from money exchange houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.85 per US dollar, a senior Bangladesh Bank official confirmed to The Business Standard yesterday.

This marks a slight reduction from the earlier instruction issued on 13 April, when banks were ordered to keep the maximum buying rate at Tk122.90 per dollar, reflecting the central bank's continued efforts to gradually bring down the dollar rate in the local market.

However, bankers and economists argue that such frequent intervention is not standard market practice. While Bangladesh Bank has already introduced a reference exchange rate framework, critics say direct verbal instructions to control rates go beyond conventional policy tools.

Several senior central bank officials, however, defended the move, saying rising fuel prices have increased the risk of inflation, forcing the monetary authority to keep the exchange rate at a level that prevents import costs from rising further.

"If the dollar rate remains high, import costs will increase, which could add pressure on inflation. That is why we are trying to maintain a stable level," one senior official said.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that discussions are ongoing regarding the disbursement of International Monetary Fund loan instalments, where reform uncertainty has emerged. One of the key IMF conditions was to move toward a more market-based and stable exchange rate mechanism.

"But there are concerns that exchange rate management is not being fully implemented in line with expectations. The IMF does not favour this kind of indirect control," he said.

He further explained that central bank intervention is not unusual, but it should be done through market-based instruments such as dollar auctions.

The economist said, "So I can't understand the reason behind such intervention. Because the directive to reduce the remittance rate means that the central bank thinks the dollar price is high in the market. However, that is due to the imbalance of demand and supply, but nothing like that has happened. But even if it is, it should be allowed to happen."

The international dollar index rose by 0.68% between 28 February and 27 April this year, while Bangladesh's domestic rate increased by only 0.37%. "If anything, this suggests relative stability in supply conditions, supported by strong remittance inflows," he said, adding that import letters of credit have also declined in March while remittance flows remain robust.

Bangladesh Bank officials argue that a lower dollar rate helps importers bring in goods at lower prices, ultimately benefiting businesses and consumers.

While no Bangladesh Bank insider agreed to be named in comments to TBS on the issue, a senior central bank official noted that repeated verbal instructions to control exchange rates may not be well received by the IMF. "This is something we need to be careful about."

There is also pressure from some business groups to appreciate the local currency to reduce import costs, he said.

Despite policy debates, remittance inflows remain strong. Bangladesh Bank data shows that remittances reached $28.92 billion in the current fiscal year up to 26 April.

Market volatility was observed in recent weeks, with some private banks buying dollars at around Tk123 per dollar last week, driven partly by upcoming payment obligations from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and Petrobangla.

However, rates softened slightly yesterday, with private banks reporting remittance purchase rates between Tk122.85 and Tk122.95 per dollar.

A senior central bank official said that despite sufficient dollar supply, some banks bought remittances at higher rates, which pushed the dollar price up slightly.

He added that dollar demand also increased after forward bookings rose from mid-March. In response, the central bank instructed banks in the first week of April to stop forward bookings.

Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC reported a 335% surge in net profit in the January-March quarter of FY26 compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to its price sensitive statement, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of Tk1.22 in the third quarter of FY26, up from Tk0.28 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

For the first three quarters (July-March), its EPS stood at Tk5.95, marking a 59% increase compared to the same period of the previous year.

Experience Clothing Company Limited, a UK-owned garment manufacturer, has renewed its lease at the Dhaka Export Processing Zone for another 30 years after completing its initial term.

The company has invested $15.16 million in the zone since its establishment and currently employs 2,485 Bangladeshi nationals, according to a press release.

Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza) Executive Director for Investment Promotion Md Tanvir Hossain and Experience Clothing Company Director Zulfiquar Maqsood signed the renewal agreement today at a ceremony attended by senior Bepza officials.

Bepza said the renewal reflects continued foreign investor confidence in Bangladesh's investment climate.

Bangladesh continues to trail its regional competitors in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report said that while Bangladesh performs better than the average least developed country (LDC) in absolute FDI inflows, it falls behind when investment is measured against the size of its population, economy and gross fixed capital formation.

On those indicators, it underperforms not only individual comparator countries but also the average for LDCs and for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), two blocs it aims to join.

FDI accounts for just 1 percent of the country’s gross fixed capital formation and 0.4 percent of gross domestic product, the report said.

Despite steady economic growth in recent years, Bangladesh has yet to convert its potential into sustained foreign investment inflows, according to the “Investment Policy Review Implementation Report”, launched at the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) office yesterday.

Between 2019 and 2024, Bangladesh received an average of $1.5 billion in FDI a year, less than half the level of Cambodia.

The difference becomes even wider when measured against larger regional economies. Vietnam attracted more than $17 billion a year on average over the same period, while Indonesia also drew substantially higher inflows.

In terms of FDI stock, Bangladesh lagged behind Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as the ASEAN and RCEP blocs. It performed better only than the average least developed country in 2024.

The UNCTAD said that inflows have declined over the past six years, although early data for 2025 suggest a tentative rebound.

Investment inflows to the country peaked at more than $1.8 billion in 2019 before entering a downward trend. Since then, inflows have fallen by nearly one-third, dropping below levels recorded during the early phase of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The fall has occurred even as the overall FDI stock has remained broadly stable at around $18 billion since 2021. This suggests that existing investors have retained capital, but new investment has slowed, according to the report.

The report attributed the weakness to macroeconomic instability and operational constraints.

Local currency taka has depreciated by about 36 percent against the US dollar since 2021, while foreign exchange shortages have made it harder for companies to repatriate profits and pay for imports, it said.

“These pressures have been compounded by energy disruptions, particularly fuel import constraints, which have raised production costs and disrupted industrial activity.”

At the same time, inflation has surged to nearly 10 percent and economic growth has slowed from about 8 percent to 4 percent between 2019 and 2024, further dampening investor sentiment.

The report mentioned that political uncertainty around the election cycle and labour unrest in key sectors, especially garments, have added to caution.

Although early indicators for 2025 point to a modest recovery in FDI inflow, the report said that the composition of the rebound raises concern.

The recent uptick has been driven mainly by reinvested earnings and intra-company loans rather than new greenfield projects. In effect, existing investors are expanding their exposure, but few new entrants are arriving, the report said.

The UNCTAD said that while confidence may be stabilising, Bangladesh has yet to regain momentum in attracting fresh foreign capital.

“A national investment policy and a consolidated investment law would help reinforce investor confidence and focus on attracting and leveraging FDI in support of national development objectives through a whole-of-government approach,” the report said.

As a second priority, UNCTAD recommended strengthening investment promotion and facilitation, focusing on sectors identified in its FDI heatmap and adopting targeted measures to support their growth in coordination with other institutions.

“Mitigate the impact of losing preferential LDC status by engaging with key investment and trade partners and by strengthening the capacities of the local private sector.”

Kiyoshi Adachi, a legal officer at UNCTAD, said most recommendations from earlier reviews have only been partially implemented.

He cited outdated legislation, including the Investment Act of 1980, which does not clearly define investor protections or consolidate FDI rules. Entry procedures remain complex and require multiple approvals, while digitalisation efforts are undermined by continued reliance on manual processes.

Challenges such as foreign exchange repatriation, access to land, infrastructure shortages and limited skilled labour mobility continue to weigh on investor confidence, he said.

Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of Bida, said Bangladesh needs to accelerate its efforts to attract foreign investment by strengthening competitiveness and aligning more closely with global standards.

Stefan Liller, resident representative of the United Nations Development Programme in Bangladesh, said coherent policies and strong institutional capacity are essential to attract responsible investment that creates jobs and supports inclusive growth.

Among others, Sohana Rouf Chowdhury, managing director of Rangs Motors, M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, Ariful Hoque, former director general of Bida, Md Hafizur Rahman, trade policy and facilitation expert, and Humayun Kabir, executive member of Bida, were present at programme.

Rising global protectionism and trade fragmentation could slow economic progress across the wider developing Asia-Pacific region, potentially delaying graduation from least developed country (LDC) status for countries including Bangladesh, according to a new United Nations survey.

The 2026 edition of the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, published last week, said the average additional effective tariff rate imposed by the United States on developing economies in the region has climbed to around 15 percent from about 2.8 percent in 2024.

As a result, several smaller and least developed countries, including Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar, now face 19-40 percent tariffs on exports to the United States.

The report said that such barriers are likely to hold back economic development and delay LDC graduation.

Bangladesh, Nepal and Lao PDR are scheduled to graduate to developing country status on November 24 this year. However, Bangladesh and Nepal have applied to the UN for a three-year deferment until 2029.

The report noted that further tariff adjustments were announced after a United States Supreme Court ruling in February 2026. Policy changes remain highly unpredictable.

As of February this year, tariff rates faced by developing economies in Asia and the Pacific were still higher than in 2024.

The report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) also said weaker export orders are likely to hit employment, wages and business investment in affected sectors, with knock-on effects for growth and government revenue.

The impact will extend beyond direct exports to the United States. Economies supplying raw materials, parts and components to regional value chains may also see demand fall, according to the report.

In Bangladesh, about one-third of textile and textile product exports depend on imported inputs or upstream trade partners. Disruptions to value chains and trade diversion could also curb productivity growth over time, limiting longer-term economic potential.

“Tariff hikes are estimated to have sizable employment impacts,” said the report. The impact on workers would vary by gender, age, skill level and sector.

Around 3 percent of total employment in the region, roughly 56 million jobs, is linked to final demand in the United States through trade and supply chains. Manufacturing is the most exposed sector.

Lower exports could suppress wages and push vulnerable workers into poverty.

In countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the garment industry employs large numbers of informal workers, many of them women.

Compared with registered workers, informal employees have weaker bargaining power, limited legal protection and little access to social security. Many earn below minimum wage levels.

Even if trade tensions ease, lingering uncertainty may discourage firms from rehiring displaced workers. That could force households to cut spending on food, health and education, with long-term consequences.

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, which face tariffs of about 20 percent, are particularly exposed because labour-intensive goods such as garments, textiles, footwear and leather account for a large share of their exports to the United States.

In Bangladesh and Cambodia, garments and textiles alone make up 50 percent to 80 percent of total goods exports to the US market.

The report also said that women dominate employment in these sectors, especially in lower-skilled, routine jobs such as sewing, cutting and finishing. Women account for around seven in ten readymade garment workers in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and about eight in ten in Cambodia.

Pay in these industries often sits at or just above the minimum wage, and access to unemployment benefits or other safety nets is limited.

In Bangladesh, about 32 percent of RMG workers earn below the minimum wage, and roughly 7 percent earn incomes below the international poverty line.

Gender pay differences persist across these labour-intensive sectors.

In Vietnam’s garment sector, female wages are estimated to be about 15 percent lower than those of men. With limited opportunities to shift into alternative employment, women and low-skilled workers are especially vulnerable to job losses and wage cuts.

Informal and subcontracted workers face the greatest risk if export demand weakens. These jobs usually offer no notice period, little job security and no social protection. They are usually the first to be cut and the last to return.

The survey also finds a clear divergence in firm performance.

Companies linked to the United States market were 14 percentage points less likely to report production growth. By contrast, firms supplying the European Union were 16 percentage points more likely to post increases.

The report added that many firms will struggle to diversify export markets quickly, given intensifying global competition and uncertain demand in major economies.

Global orders to build liquefied natural gas carriers (LNGC) are set to rebound this year after a 2025 slump as growing LNG ​output and vessel fuel efficiency drive demand, industry executives and analysts say.

The rise in orders is offsetting concerns that supply disruptions from the ‌US-Iran war may reduce near-term shipping demand and pressure freight rates.

Since late last year, shipbuilders in South Korea and China have received more orders, with 35 new LNGC builds contracted in the first quarter, according to consultancies Poten & Partners and Drewry.

By comparison, 37 LNGCs were ordered in all of 2025, with a record 171 orders placed in 2022, Drewry data shows. Each tanker costs $250 million-$260 ​million, and takes over three years to build.

Upcoming LNG production in the US, Africa, Canada and Argentina will generate tanker demand, along with a push ​towards fuel efficiency and accelerated vessel demolitions, said Pratiksha Negi, Drewry’s lead analyst for LNG shipping, with steam turbine and diesel-electric carriers expected to be phased out.

FLEXIBLE US VOLUMES

The global LNGC fleet numbers over 700 vessels, which handle the more than 400 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG supply.

Some ​72 mtpa of new LNG capacity was approved globally last year, and more than 120 mtpa of new US LNG supply is coming to market in the next 3-4 ​years, said Fraser Carson, principal analyst, global LNG at Wood Mackenzie.

The growth of US LNG and flexible LNG supply creates trading patterns that require more shipping, he said.

US LNG is typically sold on a free-on-board basis with destination flexibility, allowing mid-voyage diversions that can tie up vessels for longer.

Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the world’s largest LNGC fleet owner with 107 vessels, expects US LNG supply ​investment to spur tanker orders, CEO Jotaro Tamura said.

The company plans to grow its LNGC fleet to approximately 150 vessels by around 2035.

Meanwhile, the demolition of steam-propelled LNGCs ​has accelerated since 2022 to a record 15 vessels last year, Drewry data showed, due to poor economics and tighter emissions regulations.

A proposed framework by the International Maritime Organization to cut ‌shipping emissions is also driving demand for new builds, said Uma Dutt, vice president, LNG at global ship management firm Anglo-Eastern, as the industry switches to dual-fuel vessels that can run on LNG.

WAR COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

The Iran war, however, presents conflicting signals for LNG shipping. Supply disruptions are pushing Asian LNG buyers towards alternative sources like Atlantic basin supply, increasing travel distances for ships. It could also boost demand for LNG projects elsewhere, lifting overall demand for more carriers, said Wood Mackenzie’s Carson.

But on the other hand, the war has also ​disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz and sidelined 12.8 mtpa of Qatari ⁠capacity for three to five years, which could curb shipping demand and weigh on freight rates at a time where an “avalanche” of ship supply is already coming, he said.

Qatar, which operates over 100 LNGCs, will add 70-80 new builds over the next ​3-4 years while the UAE’s ADNOC is expected to double its fleet to 18 within 36 months, said Carson.

“Most of these ​new build vessels were ⁠earmarked to serve under-construction LNG projects that are now facing delays,” he said.

“The longer those delays persist, the more likely it is that these ships are offered to the market on sublet arrangements -softening rates considerably.”

Poten & Partners and Drewry expect a record 90-100 LNGCs to be delivered this year, up from 79 in 2025.

However, Drewry’s Negi said seven of nine ⁠LNGCs initially scheduled ​for delivery this year and now pushed back to 2027-28 are linked to QatarEnergy.

Poten & Partners senior ​LNG analyst Irwin Yeo said some firms may delay placing big new build orders due to uncertainties triggered by the war.

“Market uncertainty and rising shipbuilding costs, including labour and raw materials amid the current Middle ​East crisis could deter some from placing orders.”

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of crucial raw materials and pushed up prices of the printed circuit boards (PCB) used in almost all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to AI servers, industry sources and executives said.

The disruption is a fresh blow to electronics manufacturers which are already grappling with soaring memory chip costs and highlights the broadening impact of the Iran war that has wreaked havoc on supply chains, plastics, and oil supplies.

Iran struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex in early April, forcing a halt in production of high-purity polyphenylene ether (PPE) resin — a critical base material used to manufacture PCB laminates.

SABIC, which accounts for approximately 70% of the world's high-purity PPE supply and operates in the Jubail complex on the Gulf coast, has been unable to resume output, severely tightening the availability of the material worldwide, according to one source. Shipping in and out of the Gulf has also been severely disrupted by the war.

PCB prices have been climbing since late last year, driven by a growing appetite for AI servers. Demand has been accelerating sharply since March as manufacturers scramble to secure raw material supplies and soften the impact of skyrocketing costs, three industry sources told Reuters.

In April alone, PCB prices surged as much as 40% from March, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note. Cloud service providers are willing to accept further increases as they expect demand will outstrip supplies over the coming years, they added.

The global PCB industry is projected to increase by 12.5% to reach $95.8 billion in 2026, according to a recent report from Prismark.

Daeduck Electronics, a South Korean PCB maker whose customers include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and AMD, has begun discussions with customers over price increases, a senior executive at the company told Reuters.

The executive, who declined to be named due to sensitivity of the subject, said his priority has now changed from meeting customers to suppliers, as the waiting time for chemical materials such as epoxy resin has stretched to 15 weeks from three weeks previously.

The sharp rise in PCB prices was also driven by a shortage of other key materials, including glass fibre and copper foil, according to one source. Copper foil prices have surged as much as 30% so far this year, with the rally gaining momentum in March, the source added.

Copper accounts for around 60% of total raw material costs in PCB manufacturing, according to Victory Giant Technology, a major Chinese PCB supplier for Nvidia. The Chinese firm warned earlier this month that the Middle East conflict could push up prices for key materials including resin and copper.

Multi-layer PCBs can cost around 1,394 yuan ($204) per square metre, with higher-end models for AI servers costing around 13,475 yuan, according to Victory Giant.

India and New Zealand today signed a Free Trade Agreement in New Delhi under which New Delhi will get 100% duty-free access for some products and expanded market access for labour-intensive sectors of textiles, leather, footwear, engineering goods and processed food sectors.

India's farms, fisheries and factories will get zero-duty market access on 100% of exports.

On the other hand, India has offered market access in 70% lines covering 95% of New Zealand's trade with India.

To ensure protection to Indian farmers, rural economies and the domestic industry, market access for New Zealand under the agreement keeps out dairy, key agricultural products, coffee, milk, cream, cheese, yoghurt, whey, caseins, onions, sugar, spices, edible oils and rubber, an official statement said.

The agreement was signed by Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal and New Zealand's Minister for Trade and Investment Todd McClay.

The FTA, wrapped up in about a year after the launch of negotiations on 16 March 2025, is expected to facilitate increased trade and investment flows by improving market access, reducing barriers, and establishing clear and predictable rules, said the statement.

It will support businesses of all sizes, including small and medium enterprises, ensuring wider distribution of the benefits of trade.

The signing ceremony brought together businesses and industry leaders from both countries, with Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay leading a cross-party delegation of Members of Parliament and over 30 New Zealand businesses.

"The signing of the India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement marks a new and significant chapter in the bilateral relationship, reflecting shared ambition, deepening engagement, and a commitment to mutually beneficial growth," said McClay.

He said the agreement "reflects a balanced, forward-looking, and practical outcome" and both sides will now work closely towards effective implementation and delivery of the agreement.

New Zealand is India's second-largest trading partner in the Oceania region, with bilateral trade valued at around $1.3 billion.

Goyal said this is India's ninth FTA in the past few years with 38 developed countries.

At the heart of the FTA with New Zealand is the empowerment for exports, agricultural productivity, student mobility, skills, investment and services.

He said New Zealand has made an investment commitment of $20 billion in India.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in a report, has identified five key priority reform areas for Bangladesh to strengthen its investment climate, enhance competitiveness, and support sustainable, investment-led growth in the years ahead.

The report highlights both progress and persistent challenges in Bangladesh's investment climate since the 2013 Investment Policy Review (IPR). While acknowledging important reforms, it stresses the need for deeper and more sustained structural changes—particularly as the country prepares to graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status.

It also underscores the importance of ensuring a smooth transition as Bangladesh faces the gradual withdrawal of preferential treatment under various international agreements, amid evolving global trade and geopolitical dynamics.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UNCTAD and the Investment Development Authority (Bida) jointly launched the UNCTAD Investment Policy Review (IPR) Implementation Report for Bangladesh at Bida building in the capital yesterday (27 April).

The high-level dialogue brought together senior government officials, private sector representatives, and development partners to discuss strengthening the country's investment framework in preparation for LDC graduation.

To strengthen the investment climate, the report outlines five priority reforms as below:

Firstly, the report calls for the development of a national investment policy alongside a consolidated investment law to bolster investor confidence and support a coordinated, whole-of-government approach to attracting and effectively utilising foreign direct investment (FDI) in line with national development objectives.

Secondly, the report put emphasis on enhancing investment promotion and facilitation to improve service delivery and attract higher-quality investments.

Thirdly, it focuses on sectors identified in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Heatmap, recommending targeted interventions to drive growth and stronger institutional coordination to ensure alignment on sectoral priorities.

Fourthly, the report underscores the need for mitigating the effects of losing preferential Least Developed Country (LDC) status by engaging key trade and investment partners and strengthening the competitiveness of the domestic private sector in the post-LDC context.

And lastly, the UN report stresses on removing key bottlenecks to investment by improving access to land and infrastructure, which remain critical constraints for the potential investors.

The report also found that Bangladesh lags significantly behind its regional peers in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the findings, Vietnam's FDI stock is approximately 13 times higher than Bangladesh's, Indonesia's nearly 17 times higher, and Cambodia's about three times higher. This relatively low FDI stock highlights weaker inflows and several underlying structural constraints.

In 2024, Bangladesh's FDI stock stood at $18.29 billion, compared to $249.14 billion in Vietnam, $305.66 billion in Indonesia, and $52.66 billion in Cambodia, says the report.

Presenting the findings of the report, Legal Officer of UNCTAD's Investment and Enterprise Division Kiyoshi Adachi noted that most of the Investment Policy Review recommendations for Bangladesh have only been partially implemented.

"It is a somewhat subjective grading, but most recommendations fall into the partially implemented category," he said, adding that systematic tracking of progress remains essential.

He also highlighted weak inter-agency coordination, pointing to a mismatch between the sectors identified in Bida's FDI Heatmap—such as semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, and technical textiles—and their reflection in the national industrial policy.

Adachi also noted that the Investment Act of 1980 is outdated, lacking clear consolidation of FDI rules and well-defined investor treatment provisions. He pointed out that entry procedures still involve multiple approvals and suffer from limited transparency. Although digitalisation efforts are underway, they remain constrained by continued reliance on manual processes.

He further highlighted ongoing challenges related to foreign exchange repatriation, land access, infrastructure limitations, and restricted skilled labour mobility, including the absence of a dedicated personal visa scheme.

Bida Executive Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun stressed that Bangladesh must "shift gears" to attract global investment. "If we have been operating in second gear so far, we now need to move into fifth gear," he said, underscoring the importance of competitiveness and alignment with global standards.

UNDP Resident Representative in Bangladesh Stefan Liller emphasised that coherent policies and strong institutional capacity are critical to attracting responsible investment that generates employment and promotes inclusive growth.

Chief Executive Officer of BUILD Ferdous Ara Begum said "Her organisation has compiled an updated business licensing guidebook covering more than 600 licences. Including renewals, the total number of licences may range from 500 to 1,200."

She also noted that starting a business in Bangladesh—across manufacturing, services, or trade—initially requires around 23 licences. Based on data from citizen charters, obtaining these approvals takes an estimated 477 days.

Referring to a Cabinet Division directive issued in 2000, Begum further explained that ministries were instructed to publish timelines for administrative procedures. BUILD's analysis, based on these official timelines, shows that completing the required processes to start a business takes approximately 477 days.

She said that if starting a manufacturing business alone takes this long, other sectors may require even more time. "In that respect, the top priority should be reducing the number of steps, shortening the time, and simplifying the process," she said, adding that this remains one of the private sector's biggest challenges. She also noted that the private sector has already submitted several recommendations to address these issues.

Ferdous Ara Begum also commented on the proposed plan to merge five investment-related regulatory and promotional agencies with Bida, PPP, Beza, Bepza, BHTPA and BSIC.

She said such institutional consolidation could help improve coordination, reduce duplication, and streamline investment services. However, she stressed that its success will depend on how effectively the reform is implemented and whether the merged structure can ensure faster and more efficient decision-making for investors.

Regarding the National Board of Revenue (NBR), Ferdous Ara Begum said the tax system remains one of the biggest challenges for Bangladesh's private sector. She noted that although various reforms are underway, significant issues persist in tax policies.

The report concludes that key achievements include the establishment of Bida as the lead investment facilitation agency and the expansion of digital investment services. However, it recommends adopting a unified national investment policy, enacting a consolidated investment law, and fully digitalising investment procedures to enhance competitiveness ahead of LDC graduation.

Iran has offered to ease its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade and brings an end to the war, according to two regional officials familiar with the proposal.

The offer, reportedly conveyed to Washington through Pakistan, would postpone discussions on Iran's nuclear programme- an issue US officials insist must be part of any agreement.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signalled resistance to such a deal, saying any agreement must ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons.

Despite a fragile ceasefire, tensions remain high over the strategically vital waterway, which handles about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iran's restrictions and the US blockade have disrupted energy supplies, pushing oil prices sharply higher and straining global markets.

Brent crude prices have risen significantly since the conflict began, exceeding $108 per barrel yesterday (27 April).

The proposal comes amid growing international pressure to reopen the strait. Dozens of countries, in a joint statement led by Bahrain, called for restoring access, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of mounting humanitarian and economic consequences.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised Washington's handling of the conflict, while French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged all sides to de-escalate, stressing that key maritime routes should remain open.

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, as diplomatic efforts continue to revive stalled negotiations.

Pakistan and other mediators are attempting to bridge the gaps between Tehran and Washington, but significant differences remain, particularly over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the conditions for lifting the blockade.

The conflict, which began on 28 February, has led to thousands of deaths across the region and continues to fuel instability despite ongoing ceasefire efforts.

When launched in 2011, bKash, the country's largest mobile financial service provider (MFS), offered only a few basic services, but today it provides more than 200 services.

bKash has invested heavily in building a strong technology infrastructure and driving product innovation over the years, introducing features tailored to customer needs.

As a result, the platform has evolved from a simple transaction service into a comprehensive personal finance platform, reshaping customer behaviour.

The company's long-term strategic investments over the past decade in building a digital ecosystem are now paying off, making it one of the highest profit earners in the industry.

bKash, a subsidiary of BRAC Bank, reported its highest-ever profit of Tk676.33 crore in 2025, more than double the Tk315.77 crore recorded in 2024, according to the bank's latest annual financial disclosure statement.

Back in 2021, the company incurred a strategic loss of Tk117.29 crore.

The surge in profit in 2025 was driven by new services and technological advancements, which expanded access across business sectors. The company's market share doubled to over 60% in 2021, while registered customers rose by 150% to 8.2 crore by the end of 2025.

From the beginning, the company's investors have followed a "patient capital" approach. Instead of taking dividends, they have continuously reinvested profits back into the business. This strategy has enabled bKash to build a strong technological foundation and scale its services effectively.

The company incurred strategic losses for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021, as it focused on growing the industry and advancing financial inclusion rather than pursuing immediate profit.

Even during this loss-making period, foreign investors continued to join the company, drawn by its long-term vision and sustained investment in technology, which was expected to yield returns in the coming years.

For instance, SoftBank came on board as an equity partner in 2021, when the company was still incurring losses.

Since its inception, bKash has secured about $381 million in foreign direct investment, equivalent to over Tk4,500 crore.

bKash's journey demonstrates how a long-term vision, continuous investment in technology, and a focus on changing customer behaviour can reshape an entire industry.

How bKash became personal financial manager in daily life

Earlier, people used MFS mainly for mobile recharge and sending money, which were the core services. However, bKash continued investing in product innovation to make money movement easier for users.

The company built a vast distribution network to enable money transfers across locations. In rural areas, where digital money often needed to be converted into cash, it developed a wide agent network.

Initially, its services were limited to four: send money, cash out, cash in, and mobile recharge.

As users became familiar with the platform, services expanded significantly. Today, the bKash app offers more than 200 services.

For example, mobile recharge now includes several added features. Customers can use auto-pay, removing the need for manual recharges each time.

There are many such incremental services. For instance, if a customer regularly sends money to a relative at the beginning of each month, the transaction can now be automated, eliminating the need to remember it manually.

If you look at our journey, it began with financial inclusion. We then focused on empowering daily transactions, followed by strengthening the ecosystem.
Shamsuddin Haider Dalim, head of Corporate Communications, bKash

Similarly, for electricity bills, customers receive due-date reminders. They can also view graphical insights, such as how much they have spent on utilities over the past six months or a year.

These features help users manage their finances more effectively, particularly those on limited incomes. bKash is increasingly acting as a facilitator of everyday financial management, giving users greater control.

At the same time, bKash is building a digital financial ecosystem by integrating with businesses and financial institutions. It is currently connected with about 45 banks and has partnerships with Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and others.

The platform has also simplified remittance channels. Expatriates can now send money directly to a bKash number, while money transfer organisations and local banks handle processing and settlement in the background.

bKash is connected with around 140 money transfer organisations across 170 countries.

Initially, receiving remittances was a basic service. Now, customers have additional features, such as the ability to download remittance statements for tax purposes.

'Seems small, but serious investment behind it'

Shamsuddin Haider Dalim, head of Corporate Communications, said some features may seem small, but they require serious investment and dedicated teams working continuously.

"For example, when sharing a payment screenshot, users previously had to hide their balance manually," he told The Business Standard. "Now the app automatically conceals it. This small change has significantly improved the user experience."

There are many such features, he said, including saving card details, adding or removing cards, and storing bill information so users no longer need to search for paper bills.

"We continuously work to improve every moment of the user experience. That is why each app update introduces new features," he said.

Dalim said bKash's broader goal is to expand the payment network. "If we want a cashless society, payments must be possible everywhere. We have already onboarded around 10 lakh merchants. Customers can now pay at these outlets using QR codes."

He added that the next step is to reach roadside vendors, noting that a truly cashless society will emerge only when daily payment habits evolve.

"If you look at our journey, it began with financial inclusion. We then focused on empowering daily transactions, followed by strengthening the ecosystem," he said.

He added, "Today, customers can pay tuition fees at around 1,800 educational institutions and for more than 2,400 utility services. Around 10 lakh garment workers now receive salaries through bKash."

The platform has also introduced savings and loan services through partnerships with banks and financial institutions, allowing many previously unbanked users to access formal financial products, he said.

"For example, users can start saving from as little as Tk250 per month up to Tk20,000. After we introduced this, many banks began offering similar products," said Dalim.

He mentioned that bKash is now connected with about 45 banks, and savings services are available through several banks and non-bank financial institutions.

He added that banks are increasingly using transaction data to offer loans more easily, allowing customers to access credit without collateral based on their financial behaviour.

"One example is IDLC, which had around 50,000 clients before partnering with bKash. That number has since grown to 14 lakh," he said.

bKash's role is to innovate, introduce new products, and promote digital literacy. We continuously invest in technology and infrastructure," he mentioned.

"This includes regular upgrades to servers, cloud systems, and security. Technology evolves quickly, so constant investment is essential. Our investors understand this, which is why they reinvest rather than take dividends," added Dalim.

He said the company's current profitability reflects years of sustained investment in technology, infrastructure, product innovation, and digital literacy.

"We also focus on awareness, teaching users how to conduct digital transactions safely and avoid fraud. As a result, not only bKash but the entire industry benefits."

Dalim further noted that the company has introduced major app upgrades, including the 'My bKash' feature, which personalises the interface based on user behaviour.

"Each user's app looks different, showing frequent contacts, preferred agents, savings, loans, and more. This requires advanced technology, including AI and secure data storage," he said. "All these efforts over the past 15 years have contributed to our current position and profitability."

The country is one step closer to nuclear power generation as fuel loading begins today (28 April) at Unit 1 of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP), the country's largest electricity project.

Bangladesh is a newcomer to the nuclear power industry, with the first unit of its maiden nuclear power plant entering the phase before trial run today, more than eight years after its construction began with financial and technical assistance from Russia.

The first concrete pouring for Unit-1 of RNPP, in Pabna on the banks of the Padma River, was done on 30 November 2017 and for Unit-2 on 14 July 2018. When completed, Rooppur NPP's two units will contribute a total of 2400MW to the national electricity grid, sharing roughly 12% of the country's total electricity generation.
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Fuel loading is not a trial run, but it is a critical milestone for a nuclear plant for transitioning from construction to operational phase. This marks putting uranium into the reactor, initiating a safety check procedure that may take weeks before trial run.

Marking the occasion, a ceremony will begin at 2:30pm today at the plant site, 160km northwest of Dhaka. Science and Technology Minister Fakir Mahbub Anam, Secretary Md Anwar Hossain will speak at the event.

Officials said electricity from Rooppur's unit 1 will enter the grid for the first time about three to three and a half months after fuel loading begins. This means power from Rooppur is expected to be added to the grid in late July or early August.

Following that, electricity generation will gradually increase by around 10-15% each month. By the end of December, the full 1,200 MW capacity of Unit-1 is expected to be supplied to the national grid.

Fuel loading for Unit-2, also 1200MW capacity, is scheduled to begin towards the end of the current year. Initially, the plant has an estimated economic life of 60 years, which can later be extended by an additional 20 to 30 years.

In August last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sent a pre-operational safety review mission to inspect safety standards and operating practices at Unit 1 of the Rooppur plant.

How costly Rooppur electricity will be

Md Anwar Hossain, secretary of the Ministry of Science and Technology, told TBS that nuclear plants involve high upfront construction costs but relatively low long-term generation costs, as fuel prices are stable and less volatile than other energy sources.

He said the Rooppur plant has an expected lifespan of 60-80 years, which helps reduce average electricity costs over time. Power is expected to be supplied at rates comparable to other low-cost sources.

"No specific tariff has been finalised yet. Pricing will be determined through consultations with relevant agencies and stakeholders, the power purchase agreement, and detailed financial analysis," he added.

However, a senior project official said Rooppur electricity may be slightly more expensive than gas-based power but cheaper than coal and furnace oil-based generation. "Considering total installation and production costs, the per-unit tariff could range between Tk4 and Tk8," he said.

Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission officials said a tariff proposal has already been submitted to the Power Division. A final meeting will be held before fuel loading and grid connection to finalise the tariff.

M Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said consumers would benefit if tariffs are set based on actual production costs.

In India, nuclear tariffs range between $0.03 and $0.05 (Tk3.94-6.52) per kWh for older plants, while newer projects cost around $0.074 (Tk9.11) per kWh, according to the World Nuclear Association. India, which operates seven nuclear plants, has opened the sector to private investment to expand capacity to 100GW by 2047, from 8.7GW at present.

In Pakistan, which runs six nuclear plants, average generation costs are around $0.06 (Tk7.02) per kWh. China's benchmark tariff for new nuclear projects stands at $0.06-0.07 (Tk7.38-8.62) per kWh.

65-year dream coming true

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant's site was selected in 1962 during the Pakistan era. After independence, successive five-year plans prioritised the power sector, with international cooperation sought for nuclear development.

The issue got momentum after 2009, when nuclear power was integrated into the country's development strategy. In 2011, Bangladesh signed an agreement with Russia, paving the way for implementation.

In 2015, the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission signed a contract with Russia's JSC Atomstroyexport to build two VVER-1200 reactors with a combined capacity of 2,400 MW. Bangladesh and Russia signed a general construction contract worth $12.65 billion in December 2015 for the two-unit project.

Officials said the cost of Rooppur is aligned with international benchmarks for VVER-1200-based nuclear plants.

Hungary spent about $13.2 billion for two units, Egypt around $30 billion for four, Turkey roughly $20 billion for four, and Belarus about $11 billion for two. Vietnam's Ninh Thuan project is expected to require at least $22 billion, according to its Ministry of Industry and Trade (March 2026).

India presents a different structure, with two units costing about $6.7 billion, which largely reflects reactor and equipment costs. Infrastructure, training, safety systems and other components were accounted for separately. As a result, experts said direct comparisons may be misleading and do not fully reflect total project scope.

Green energy, technology transfer

Secretary Md Anwar Hossain said the plant will bring significant changes to energy security, the economy and technological capability.

"This is an environmentally friendly source of energy. Carbon emissions from nuclear power are very low, so it will play an important role in addressing climate change," he said.

He added that the project is enabling technology transfer and helping develop a high-tech sector, with local engineers, scientists and technicians receiving training and building expertise.

So far, around 25,000 people have been directly involved in the project, contributing to employment generation and human resource development. Anwar said the project is also expected to support the growth of allied industries.

"Bangladesh is heavily dependent on imported energy such as gas, oil and coal. Once Rooppur is operational, this dependency will decline, saving foreign currency and boosting energy security," he said.

He added that the plant is expected to supply 10-12% of the country's electricity demand, providing reliable power to 20-25 million people, with positive impacts on industry, agriculture and daily life.

Global picture

Around 31 countries operate nuclear power plants, generating roughly one-tenth of global electricity. According to the International Energy Agency, France has the highest nuclear share at 65%, followed by the Slovak Republic, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland, ranging between 63% and 41% as of 2023.

In other major economies, nuclear accounts for 18% of electricity in the US and Russia, 9% in Japan, 5% in China, 20% in the UAE and 2% in Iran. In South Asia, Pakistan generates about 16% of its electricity from nuclear power, while India stands at around 3%.

The US leads global nuclear capacity, while China is rapidly expanding its nuclear fleet as part of its shift towards cleaner energy.

Operating costs of nuclear plants are generally lower than coal- and gas-fired power stations. In India, nuclear electricity generation costs about $48.2/MWh, compared to $64-95/MWh for coal. In Russia, nuclear power is the cheapest at $27.4/MWh, while in China it is $50/MWh, compared to $71 for coal and $81 for gas.

An OECD study also finds that nuclear power is often cheaper than coal and gas in most countries.

A reversal of the five Islamic bank merger begins as former shareholders of Social Islami Bank Ltd officially appeal for regaining the troubled bank's conditional control through a new legal window.

The much-talked-about insertions into the newly enacted Bank Resolution Act 2026 that modified the merger-related ordinance of the post-uprising interim government, thus, begin to come into action.

Former chairman and sponsor shareholder of the shahirah-based bank Major (Retd.) Dr Md. Rezaul Haque, on behalf of the former board of directors, submitted Monday an application to Governor of Bangladesh Bank (BB) Md. Mostaqur Rahman in pursuant to the section 18(Ka) of the Bank Resolution Act, officials said.Bangladesh market analysis

Apart from Mr. Haque, the other signatory shareholders in the application are managing director of Hamdard Laboratories Dr Hakim Md. Yusuf Harun Bhuiyan, Alhaj Sultan Mahmood Chowdhury, Afia Begum and Md. Zahedul Alam Chowdhury.

With the submission of the application, uncertainty looms large over operation of the emerging Sammilito Islamic Bank which was formed through merging five severely liquidity-hit shariah-based commercial banks last year.

The merged banks were Social Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Union Bank, Global Islami Bank and EXIM Bank.

Talking to The Financial Express, the former chairman of Social Islami Bank, Mr. Rezaul Haque, said they had submitted the application under the section 18(Ka) of the act, which has created a window for the former shareholders to get back conditional control over the problem bank.

He thinks the bank can be revived as an independent bank through fresh capital injections, stronger governance, recovery of classified loans and improved liquidity support.

They pledge to restore transparency and accountability if the former board members are reinstated.Financial news subscription

"We hope the central bank governor will give serious attention to our application and give us time to share our plans to make the bank rebound," he says.

Mr. Haque says they will comply with all the conditions in the Bank Resolution Act to get back their ownership in the bank.

"We are capable as we had given 20-percent cash dividend to the shareholders regularly since 2013 till 2016 before it was forcibly taken away by a controversial business group," he says, adding that their employees enjoyed 5-7 bonuses annually.

According to the interpolation of changes into section 18(Kha) of the Bank Resolution Act, former directors or shareholders of banks, merging or listed for mergers, can pay 7.5 per cent upfront of the amount injected by the government or the central bank to reclaim the banks. The remaining 92.5 per cent is to be repaid within two years at 10-percent interest.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official says they will scrutinize the application on various aspects. Thereafter, it will be placed before the BB board of directors.

"If the board members are satisfied, it will be sent to the ministry of finance for next course of action."

On a question over the operational fate of Sammilito Islami Bank, the central banker couldn't give any satisfactory response. "We are in the dark now as the progress of the newborn bank gets caught in limbo after the latest change in the Bank Resolution Act," he says.

The section 18(Ka) of the act, which was passed by parliament on April 11 last, sparked widespread criticism from various quarters who fear representatives from the group who looted public money from the banks might get back in the ownerships through using the amended law.

Before the mergers, the central bank on November 5 last year declared net asset value (NAV) of the shares of the five banks zero, citing deeply negative capital positions, and officially classified the institutions as non-viable.

Although all the five remain listed on the stock market, trading in their shares was suspended by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Under the merger plan, the government injected Tk 200 billion into the newborn bank, while another Tk 150 billion was to come from the deposit-insurance fund, creating a paid-up capital base of Tk 350 billion.

Of the government funds, it invested Tk 100 billion in Sukuk bonds while the remaining Tk 100 billion in cash remains almost intact in the Sammilito Islami Bank current account with the regulator.

According to the financial review of the bank, the ratio of classified loans rose to 64 per cent by end of August last year, which prompted the banking regulator to take it under its merger plan along with four other Islamic banks.

The total investment the bank had made until August 2025 was Tk 391 billion. Of the volume, around Tk 248 billion turned bad loans and it created severe liquidity crisis in the bank.

Global oil price shocks are likely to affect Bangladesh’s economy mainly through higher inflation, a weaker exchange rate, and limited output losses, according to a study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The study says that the overall impact will depend on the scale of global oil price increases, but the main transmission channels are expected to remain the same over the medium to long term. Rising energy costs are likely to feed into domestic prices, weaken the taka, and slightly slow economic growth.

By analysing different scenarios based on a 20 percent to 60 percent rise in global oil prices and using an econometric model, the CPD said losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an economy -- would remain relatively contained, ranging between 0.21 percent and 0.53 percent.

In contrast, the inflationary impact could be far more pronounced, with price pressures rising from 0.6 percent in the first quarter to as high as 13.6 percent in the fifth year. This reflects the strong pass-through of fuel costs across Bangladesh’s supply chains, the CPD said in a paper presented at the fourth Bangladesh-China Renewable Energy Forum at Lakeshore Hotel in Dhaka yesterday.

The analysis shows that consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), would rise across all scenarios -- mild, moderate, and severe -- with the impact becoming stronger over time.

In the short term, inflation is projected to increase by 0.60 percent, 1.11 percent, and 1.55 percent within the first quarter under the three respective scenarios. The pressure would continue to build, reaching 1.12 percent, 2.06 percent, and 2.87 percent after one year.

Over the longer term, the impact becomes much sharper. By the fifth year, inflation is expected to rise to 5.27 percent under mild shocks, 9.72 percent under moderate shocks, and as high as 13.57 percent under severe shocks.

At the same time, the Bangladeshi taka is projected to depreciate by between 0.56 percent and 4.5 percent under different scenarios, driven by higher fuel import bills and related balance-of-payments pressures.

The CPD warned that Bangladesh will continue to bear the burden of the ongoing energy shock for years, as structural vulnerabilities and accumulated costs will not disappear immediately even if global tensions ease.

Given the limited fiscal space, the think tank suggested that the government may need to scale down its budget estimates for the fiscal year 2026-2027 to accommodate rising energy-related expenditures.

It also cautioned that the crisis could further intensify the country’s debt burden. Increased government borrowing may crowd out private sector access to credit, tightening financial conditions across the economy.

To address these challenges, the CPD recommended accelerating the transition towards renewable energy while using domestic natural gas as a “transition fuel” to reduce dependence on imports.

Policy momentum appears to be building. The BNP government has recently announced a target to generate 10,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and has formed a committee to prepare the necessary roadmap.

The CPD urged the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources to prepare a clear roadmap to achieve the 10,000 MW renewable energy target through both utility-scale and distributed systems.

The think tank said the target could unlock around $10 billion in investment. It also recommended reviving viable cancelled projects through transparent tendering to speed up implementation.

Times are bad for Bangladesh’s farmers. Right when they needed a steady diesel supply to irrigate vast swathes of cropland — Boro paddies, seasonal vegetables, maize — the world entered what the head of the International Energy Agency called “the biggest energy security threat in history.”

The fuel is in short supply. The government has just hiked its price by 15 percent. Many farmers are now fearing losses of both crops and investment. But not Afzal Hossain from Fulpukuria village in Gobindaganj of Gaibandha, who cultivated Boro paddy on six bighas this season and gets his water from a solar-powered pump.

“I am not really worried about irrigation,” he said. “My neighbours who rely on diesel or electric pumps are suffering due to the fuel crisis and load-shedding.”

Bangladesh requires over 40 lakh tonnes of diesel a year, with a large chunk of it going towards the running of more than 12 lakh irrigation pumps, according to data from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and government agencies. Besides, there are more than 430,000 electric pumps that provide minor irrigation.

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), the country currently has 754 diesel-powered deep tube wells, 10,39,337 shallow tube wells, and 1,84,384 low-lift pumps in operation.

While this reliance could be a devastating blow for many farmers, those using solar-powered pumps are enjoying immunity from the whole crisis.

In Rangpur Division, across five districts, 5,09,095 hectares of Boro paddy have been planted this year. Around 35 to 40 percent of cultivable land in the region depends entirely on diesel-powered shallow machines. The recent price hike has pushed service providers to raise charges for irrigation, harvesting, and maize threshing.

According to Hussain Mohammad Altaf, executive engineer at Rangpur office of the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), 596 solar-powered irrigation machines were active during the last irrigation season in the division.

“If each generates an average of 10 kilowatts, total output comes to 5.9 megawatts, enough to run 80,000 to 85,000 fans daily,” he said. Over a four-month irrigation season, those machines save approximately 75 lakh litres of diesel.

In Lalmonirhat, Atiar Rahman manages a solar-powered deep tube-well run by the BADC at Doani village of Hatibandha upazila, supplying water to around 15 bighas of maize and vegetable land.

“Even if diesel is unavailable or its price rises, farmers no longer have to worry,” he said, “because this irrigation machine runs on solar power.”

He added that the panels sit idle for eight months after the irrigation season ends, and that connecting surplus electricity to the national grid through net metering could benefit farmers, institutions, and the government alike.

Further into the char lands of Kurigram, farmer Meher Jamal of Char Paschim Bajra at Ulipur upazila said vast areas surrounded by the Teesta River once sat uncultivated because irrigation was out, but it meant increased costs and labour.

“For the last few years, many char lands are now being cultivated regularly because of irrigation facilities through solar power,” he said. “Land that once remained unused is now producing crops.”

Sudhan Chandra Sen, a farmer from Madhupur village at Kaunia upazila of Rangpur, said the difference is simple. “There is no worry about fuel. Electricity comes from solar power, and we get water. Crops are better, and costs are lower.”

He noted that while electricity is less reliable, as it often comes and goes, delaying irrigation, solar power is sustainable and consistent. “Water is always available.”

In Bogura, Abdul Hamid from Kachua village at Shibganj upazila cultivated Boro on five and a half bighas. He said solar-powered pumps have reduced both his costs and stress. “I planted Boro paddy after harvesting potatoes. So far, I haven’t had to worry about irrigation or the cost. I can pay the irrigation fees after harvesting the crop.”

Abu Hasan, another farmer from the same village, said crops under solar pumps yield better because the water supply is uninterrupted. “I face no water shortages. I have to pay Tk 1,500 per bigha for irrigation after the harvest.”

Beyond individual farms and government initiatives, private operators have built businesses around solar irrigation. Abu Jafar Sujan, regional manager of Salek Solar Power Limited, said his company runs 122 solar pumps across Bogura, Gaibandha, Meherpur, and Panchagarh districts.

“Each pump has a lifting capacity of 5 to 20 horsepower. Smaller pumps cover 30 to 40 bighas, while the larger ones irrigate up to 120 bighas of Boro land, he added.

Abu Bakkar Siddique, who looks after a 20-horsepower irrigation pump owned by Salek Solar in Kachua, said 100 bighas of Boro land were irrigated under this pump this year.

Nationally, the state-run renewable project financer Infrastructure Development Company Limited (Idcol) has funded the installation of approximately 1,523 solar pumps through six companies, covering around 15,000 hectares.

“There are 152 such pumps in Bogura, Sirajganj, Gaibandha, and Naogaon. However, some remain inactive due to various complexities and a lack of technical spare parts,” an official of the organisation said on condition of anonymity. “We plan to install 10,000 solar pumps across the country by 2030.”

The ADB, in a December 2023 report on scaling up solar irrigation pumps in Bangladesh, said irrigation costs in Bangladesh account for 43 percent of total agricultural costs.

It estimated that replacing diesel pumps with solar could displace consumption of 10 lakh tonnes of diesel annually, avoiding 30 lakh tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.

But installation has slowed sharply. After peaking at 12.88 MWp in 2019, new installations had fallen to just 4.65 kWp by 2025, according to the state-owned Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (Sreda), responsible for increasing renewable energy production.

Rangpur BADC’s Altaf confirmed that no new solar irrigation projects have been launched in Rangpur division since 2022, and some existing pumps remain inactive due to technical problems and missing spare parts.

Mizanur Rahman, chief engineer (operation) of Northern Electricity Supply Company PLC (Nesco) in Rangpur, believes that if diesel-dependent irrigation can be quickly transformed into solar-powered irrigation, it would save foreign currency and reduce carbon emissions.

For climate-vulnerable Bangladesh, this could be an effective path toward sustainable agriculture, he added. “Most solar-powered irrigation machines are located in areas under the Rural Electrification Board. Therefore, implementation would be possible if the relevant authorities take initiatives to introduce net metering at those installations.”

Rights activists noted that solar projects are highly important for increasing agricultural production, ensuring food security, and modernising agriculture.

“Government and private initiatives should further expand solar-powered irrigation projects to improve the fortunes of marginal farmers,” said Shafiqul Islam, president of the Lalmonirhat district unit of Nodi Bachao Teesta Bachao Sangram Parishad.

After more than 35 years in commercial banking, I have seen a troubling pattern: persistently high non-performing loans, limited product innovation, weak risk management, a shortage of capable and transformational leadership, and undue interference by owner directors. Over time, these have become almost normal. They are compounded by uneven central bank supervision, outdated technology and limited institutional capacity to respond to shocks.

Meanwhile, global banking is changing rapidly. Technological advances, shifting customer expectations and new economic realities are reshaping how banks operate. Some institutions are struggling to keep up; others are moving ahead with stronger governance, modern systems and forward-looking strategies. This widening gap poses a pressing question: what will banking look like in the coming decade, and can our local banks remain competitive?

There are signs of progress. Several commercial banks in Bangladesh have begun centralising operations to improve efficiency and oversight. Effective centralisation brings large corporate and retail branches under unified control, strengthening governance while improving risk management and customer service. At the same time, the expansion of digital banking services is making transactions quicker, simpler and more accessible.

Banks are also placing greater emphasis on customer relationship management (CRM). Many have invested heavily in technology and staff training, and that effort is set to continue. Customers initially faced disruption, but many are now seeing the benefits. Banks are working to understand each client’s overall financial needs and to offer tailored solutions. Relationship managers (RMs) are being deployed to integrate corporate banking, foreign exchange and personal financial services, enabling clients to access a full range of services through a single point of contact.

Lending strategies are shifting as well. Banks increasingly recognise that heavy reliance on traditional instruments such as cash credit is unsustainable. The focus is moving towards mobilising low-cost deposits and boosting profitability through a more balanced mix of corporate and retail banking.

To support this transition, banks are investing in digital platforms, data analytics, artificial intelligence and blockchain. AI, including generative AI, is beginning to transform financial services by enabling personalised advice and sharper market insights. Robo-advisers, for example, can analyse market trends and customer behaviour to provide recommendations aligned with individual risk profiles.

AI is also improving efficiency. Chatbots now handle routine enquiries such as account balances or transaction histories, cutting waiting times and operating costs. More advanced tools can assess financial statements, support credit decisions, detect fraud in real time and streamline processes, including customer onboarding, loan approvals and regulatory reporting. These innovations enhance service quality while reducing administrative pressure.

The revenue model must evolve, too. A balanced bank should aim for an equal split between interest income and fee-based income. Leading institutions are placing greater weight on fee-based services such as corporate advisory, foreign exchange, structured finance and syndication, where risks are shared. This reduces dependence on traditional lending and strengthens balance sheet resilience.

Risk management will determine future success. To manage interest rate volatility, banks are prioritising short-term, low-cost deposits over long-term liabilities. At the same time, they must develop robust credit policies aligned with emerging investment trends and economic needs.

Ultimately, the future of banking will be shaped by technology, market forces and rising customer expectations. Banks can no longer confine themselves to deposit-taking and lending. They must expand into wealth management, integrate with fintech platforms and ensure secure, technology-driven transactions.

In an era defined by globalisation and rapid technological change, continuous transformation is essential for survival. Banks that fail to adapt will become irrelevant. The message is unmistakable: banking cannot continue the way it is.

Separating tax policy from administration and establishing a credible macro-fiscal framework are "mission-critical" reforms for Bangladesh, according to development partners and economists speaking at a high-level policy dialogue in Dhaka yesterday (26 April).

Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan, said strengthening the tax system requires urgent institutional clarity and consistent implementation.

"Let me begin by echoing two key points that have already been raised. First, the separation between tax policy and tax administration is absolutely mission-critical. While there may have been reasons for not advancing this reform earlier, it is something that now needs to happen. This separation is essential for improving governance within the tax system, as well as for advancing digitalisation," he said.

He stressed that Bangladesh must move forward with a clear tax reform roadmap and avoid policy reversals.

"The second major challenge is to establish a clear tax reform plan and begin implementation without policy reversals. What matters most at this stage is that the overall direction is crystal clear, and that implementation supports this direction to demonstrate credibility," he added.

Pesme also warned that investors judge policies based on execution rather than announcements. "From an investor's perspective, the key question is whether policy announcements will actually be implemented. It may be more effective to start with less ambitious reforms, but ensure they are properly executed."

He further said Bangladesh's investment climate requires stronger foundations, noting that revenue mobilisation, financial sector stability, and business environment reforms must move together. "Countries that attract investment do so not just through incentives, but through macroeconomic stability, strong institutions, rule of law and efficient administration," he added.

He also highlighted concerns over low tax-to-GDP ratio, high tax expenditures, and over-reliance on exemptions, stressing the need to broaden the tax base and improve transparency.

Echoing similar concerns, Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Bangladesh Resident Mission of the Asian Development Bank, said revenue reform and macro-fiscal discipline are central to improving economic stability.

"I think the point on revenue is very important, particularly the institutional reforms around how the National Board of Revenue is structured," he said.

He noted that weak fiscal discipline creates mid-year policy adjustments and discretionary space within tax administration.

"Bangladesh is the only country in South Asia without a clear fiscal anchor. As a result, there is no strong discipline on the expenditure side, and when that discipline is missing, it also affects revenue discipline," he said.

He added that improving the macro-fiscal framework is urgent in the context of rising debt pressures and long-term fiscal sustainability.

The remarks came at a high-level luncheon organised by the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) at a hotel in Dhaka today, focusing on "Conducive Fiscal Policy for a Better Investment Climate".

The event brought together policymakers, economists, development partners, business leaders, and members of the diplomatic community to discuss Bangladesh's fiscal outlook. The session featured M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, as the keynote speaker. He noted that tax policy and administration remain key concerns for investors, citing high corporate tax rates, complex compliance processes, fragmented administration, and policy unpredictability as major challenges.

The panel discussion was moderated by Shams Zaman, board member of FICCI and country managing partner at PwC. Panelists included Jean Pesme of the World Bank, Chandan Sapkota of the Asian Development Bank, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue, and Abul Kasem Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD).

Panelists broadly agreed that ensuring policy stability, simplifying the tax system, strengthening institutions, and improving coordination among regulatory bodies will be critical to attracting and sustaining foreign investment in the coming years.

Fahmida Khatun called for tariff rationalisation to be the most urgent reform priority this year, stressing that Bangladesh must prepare for a post-LDC graduation reality by strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation without over-reliance on import duties.

Rupali Haque Chowdhury, FICCI president and managing director of Berger Paints Bangladesh, said that to improve the business environment, attract investment, and increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, it is essential to ensure transparency, digitalisation, and policy continuity.

Abul Kasem Khan said, "M Masrur Reaz showed a corporate tax rate of around 27.5%, but in reality we are paying close to 40%. One of my companies is even paying about 45% because of the Advance Income Tax. So, this requires a radical reform.

"I would suggest doing away with AIT if possible. I understand it is a difficult policy choice, but if additional taxes are collected on income or profits, that amount should either be refunded or adjusted against next year's liabilities."

He added, "If such a reform is introduced and linked with employment generation, it could create a strong incentive structure. Companies that generate more employment could receive refunds, encouraging them to reinvest profits into capital machinery, expansion, or new business ventures instead of distributing everything as dividends. This kind of reform would help promote reinvestment, productivity, and job creation."

Tax deduction at source (TDS) has long served as an efficient mechanism for revenue collection within Bangladesh’s income tax framework. However, its growing overlap with the turnover-based minimum tax, and the treatment of tax deducted at source as minimum tax in many cases under the Income Tax Act 2023, is creating unintended structural distortions in the business environment. While these measures may ensure a predictable revenue stream for the government, their combined effect is becoming increasingly burdensome for businesses, particularly in terms of cash flow, tax equity, and overall economic efficiency.

The main objective of the minimum tax is to ensure that no taxpayer is left out of the tax net. That is, even if a person or organization shows a loss or very little profit, they must pay a minimum tax on a certain basis. It is a way to prevent tax evasion and protect revenue. In Bangladesh, this minimum tax is mainly implemented in two ways.

First, the turnover-based minimum tax imposes a levy on gross receipts, irrespective of profitability. Currently, companies and institutions exceeding Tk 50 lakh in turnover and individuals exceeding Tk 4 crore are subject to this tax, with rates ranging from 0.1% to as high as 3% depending on the sector. For instance, tobacco and soft drink manufacturers face a 3% rate, mobile operators 1.5%, and most other sectors around 1%.

Second, Tax Deducted at Source (TDS), although legally designed as an advance tax, often functions in practice as a de facto minimum or even final tax. In theory, TDS should be adjustable against final tax liabilities. However, in reality, such adjustments are frequently limited or unavailable, particularly for businesses operating at a loss or with slim profit margins. As a result, taxes deducted at source effectively become non-refundable, locking in a tax burden regardless of actual income.

In many cases, TDS effectively serves as a minimum tax, ensuring that the government secures a certain level of revenue even when the taxpayer’s financial condition is unfavorable. A significant portion of taxes deducted or collected at source under various provisions, spanning Sections 88 to 139 of the Income Tax Act 2023, functions in this way.

Even if the final tax calculation suggests a lower liability, the amount already deducted or collected often remains unchanged, creating a structural mismatch and undermining fairness in the tax system.

This dual application creates a significant imbalance. A substantial portion of tax collected under multiple provisions of the Income Tax Act now carries the characteristics of minimum taxation. Consequently, businesses often face effective tax rates far exceeding statutory rates, sometimes by five to ten times. This is particularly damaging for credit-dependent enterprises, which may struggle to maintain liquidity, meet loan obligations, and sustain operations. The implications extend beyond individual firms, posing risks to the broader financial system, including banking sector stability.

Fundamentally, this structure deviates from the core principle of income taxation—that tax should be levied on net income, not gross receipts. By ignoring costs, losses, and the taxpayer’s ability to pay, the current system imposes what can only be described as economically punitive measures.

Moreover, the absence of a mechanism to carry forward excess minimum tax paid during loss-making periods further compounds the problem, effectively leading to elements of double taxation.

In contrast, most developed tax systems treat TDS strictly as an advance payment, fully adjustable against final liabilities. Even in neighboring economies like India, such adjustments are standard practice. Bangladesh’s partial and inconsistent integration of these systems has resulted in unnecessary complexity and diminished business confidence.

As the government prepares the national budget for 2026–27, there is a timely opportunity to recalibrate the tax framework. Several policy measures merit serious consideration:

Repealing the provision of minimum tax under Section 163, which conflicts with fundamental income tax principles and imposes disproportionate burdens.
Clearly redefining TDS as an adjustable advance tax, ensuring full reconciliation at the time of final assessment.
Rationalizing TDS rates, setting them at 2% for industrial and trading sectors, and 1% for service, advertising, and media sectors.
Reducing the turnover-based minimum tax rate to a uniform 0.5% to ease pressure on businesses.
Introducing a carry-forward mechanism to allow adjustment of minimum tax paid during loss-making periods against future profits.
Simplifying the overall tax structure to eliminate instances of multiple taxation on the same income stream.
Providing targeted relief or conditional exemptions for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are particularly vulnerable to cash flow constraints.
Revenue mobilization is undeniably critical for national development. However, it must not come at the expense of economic vitality. A tax system that is perceived as punitive or inequitable risks discouraging investment, stifling industrial growth, and undermining long-term competitiveness.

A balanced, transparent, and business-friendly tax regime is not merely desirable—it is essential. The upcoming budget presents a crucial opportunity to address systemic issues and lay the foundation for a more sustainable, growth-oriented fiscal framework. While ensuring revenue generation remains important, it is equally critical to foster a competitive and sustainable business environment.

The current structure of minimum tax and tax at source, combining features of advance, minimum, and partial final taxes, can act as a deterrent to investment, industrialization, and long-term economic growth. Therefore, the need of the hour is to revisit these mechanisms in the next budget and introduce a more balanced, fair, and investment-friendly tax system.