China ​has overtaken the US to win the top spot on a list of the world's fastest supercomputers, but the results may ‌say more about Beijing's desire to show self-sufficiency in computing systems than its standing in the global AI race, experts said.

The LineShine system at the National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen, China, uses domestically designed chips and won the top spot on the TOP500, a biannual global ranking of supercomputers, with the country's first listing in three years.

The ​ranking comes as the U.S. and China are increasingly competing in advanced computing, with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday signing an executive order ​that aims to put the U.S. ahead of China in the emerging field of quantum computing.

In the June 2026 ⁠edition of TOP500, LineShine beat out the previous titleholder, El Capitan, a supercomputer housed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory that the U.S. government uses ​to develop and maintain its nuclear weapons stockpile.

But technology and policy experts interviewed by Reuters said the results do not mean that China has the world's ​fastest computer for AI work because of changes in the computing industry in recent years and the methods used to compile the list. LineShine ranked fourth on a benchmark test designed to simulate computing work that is more similar to AI.

Benchmark Tests

For decades, supercomputers strung together many separate machines to work on complex scientific problems such as ​simulating how atoms interact with one another and were mostly the domain of national labs and universities. To be ranked on the TOP500 list, supercomputer ​operators must run a set of benchmark tests that aims to mimic such work.

But in more recent years, cloud computing companies such as Microsoft Amazon.com and Alphabet's Google ‌built out ⁠massive supercomputers of their own but geared them for AI work instead.

Most of those companies do not opt to compete for a spot on the TOP500 list. A study last year by AI policy researchers Konstantin Pilz, James Sanders, Robi Rahman and Lennart Heim found that SpaceX-owned xAI's Colossus system was already likely more powerful than the US government's El Capitan.

"If the hyperscalers submitted their systems, this 'world's fastest' would not crack the top five," said Jimmy ​Goodrich, a senior fellow at the ​University of California's Institute for Global ⁠Conflict and Cooperation.

Chip design efforts

The Chinese victory on the list more likely shows that China wanted recognition for its chip design efforts, which is a change from recent years, experts said.

China first took the top spot on the ​TOP500 in 2010 and traded titles back and forth with the US and Japan until 2023, when China ​stopped submitting its ⁠systems after years of chip- and computing-related export controls from Trump's first administration and later under President Joe Biden.

"I'm not surprised it's the number one system. What I'm surprised by is that they submitted it and want recognition for it," said Addison Snell, CEO of Intersect360 Research, a firm that focuses on supercomputers.

The ⁠LineShine system ​does not contain any advanced AI chips, according to details presented with the results, likely ​because the tools to make those chips are still subject to US export controls.

"China is hoping to convince the world export controls are useless by hoping we ignore the details," Goodrich ​said.

The National Supercomputing Centre did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

India’s imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US are set to top 1 million metric tons in June, a record high, industry sources said, as New Delhi turned to costlier suppliers to offset disruption from the Middle East.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, India depended on Middle Eastern producers for 90 percent of its LPG imports, which totalled about 2 million tons per month.

Imports of LPG, widely used as cooking fuel in Indian households, declined to as low as 696,000 tons in April because of the strait blockade, government data showed.

The imports, however, recovered to 1.15 million tons in May, the data showed.

Before the disruption, New Delhi had planned to raise US LPG purchases to about 10 percent of total imports as part of its effort to rebalance trade with Washington.

The closure of the waterway accelerated spot buying from the US, with Indian refiners purchasing unprecedented volumes at hefty spot market premiums as the government’s priority was to maintain uninterrupted cooking gas supplies, said a trade source who is aware of the purchases.

The sources declined to be named publicly as they are not authorised to speak to the media. India also asked refiners to maximise LPG output, prioritised LPG sales to households and accelerated the rollout of piped gas connections. The efforts have already started to reduce India’s LPG consumption by 15 percent to 20 percent, one of the sources said.

India is on track to receive about 1.1 million to 1.2 million tons of US LPG in June, while supplies from the United Arab Emirates have started to recover to around 300,000 to 400,000 tons this month, two sources at Indian refiners said. The UAE offered LPG cargoes loaded from Oman’s Sohar port on a free-on-board basis at a premium of about $100 per ton to Saudi CP prices, the sources said, adding that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co deployed four to five vessels that get LPG up to Sohar port.

Indian refiners will also be getting about 45,000 tons of LPG from Kuwait in June, the sources said. The partial opening of the strait will improve LPG supplies from the Middle East in the coming months, which will help to reduce prices, the sources added.

India imported 648,300 tons of LPG from the US and 134,700 tons from the UAE in May, according to Kpler data. Imports from Iran, mainly by small players with negligible links to the US, stood at 145,000 tons, while shipments from other traditional suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, remained limited, Kpler’s data show.

Kpler’s preliminary June data indicate India is scheduled to import about 1.07 million tons of LPG from the US, around 223,800 from the UAE, 116,200 tons from Iran and 108,600 tons from Kuwait, with some volumes expected from Oman, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has allowed banks to disburse certain consumer loans directly to vendors through electronic fund transfers, a move aimed at modernising loan settlement processes and reducing operational risks associated with paper-based transactions.

The central bank issued a circular yesterday, permitting scheduled banks to transfer loan proceeds electronically to vendors in the case of auto loans, housing finance, consumer durable loans and loans for professionals.

Previously, banks were required to make payments under these loan categories through pay orders or cheques issued in favour of vendors to ensure the proper utilisation of funds and prevent the diversion of loan proceeds.

According to the central bank, the integration of digital payment systems alongside traditional instruments will improve operational efficiency, eliminate settlement delays, reduce transaction costs and mitigate risks related to paper-based payment instruments.

The BB said digital disbursement would enable instantaneous fund transfers, accelerate asset delivery and create a more secure settlement process for banks, vendors and borrowers.

Under the new instructions, banks may transfer funds directly to a vendor’s account if it is maintained with the same bank.

If the vendor’s account is held with another scheduled bank, the disbursing bank may use the Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system to complete the payment, it added.

The central bank, however, reiterated that loan proceeds must not be credited to the borrower’s account or paid in cash unless specifically permitted under existing regulations.

To address potential risks arising from digital disbursement, BB directed banks to strengthen measures for managing operational, fraud, cybersecurity and third-party risks.

Banks will also remain responsible for ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct vendor.

The central bank clarified that electronic fund transfers would serve as an additional mode of payment and that all other provisions of its Prudential Regulations for Consumer Financing would remain unchanged.

The directive, issued under Section 45 of the Bank Company Act, 1991, came into effect immediately.

Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, on signs of some progress in restoring crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following US-Iran peace talks.

Brent crude futures fell $1.09, or 1.4 percent, to $76.81 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate declined to $72.99 a barrel, down 87 cents, or 1.2 percent, as of 0607 GMT.

Prices fell more than 3 percent on Monday after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the broader agreement.

“The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the market,” said ING analysts in a note. Two crude tankers with just under 2 million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the waterway.

“Transits over recent days look to have risen sharply, (which) the market will treat as a proxy for both physical oil, perhaps paper oil, and diplomatic progress,” said Sparta Commodities’ head of research Neil Crosby in a note. “It feels like we will be stuck in this bearish risk-off/optimistic mood until such time as something changes.”

The price declines come after a weekend that had appeared to put the week-old accord in jeopardy, including threats from US President Donald Trump to restart the war if Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran declared the strategic waterway closed.

“There remains a prevailing dose of market scepticism, rooted in deep-seated mistrust between Washington and Tehran, suggesting that any return to pre-war oil prices is likely to be delayed rather than immediate,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Separately, analysts in a Reuters poll expect US crude inventories to have fallen last week, along with distillate and gasoline inventories. On Monday, government data showed US crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 331.2 million barrels last week, the lowest since June 1983, as supplies tightened in the wake of the US-Iran conflict.

London's domestically focussed FTSE index slipped to a one-week low on Monday, bogged down by political uncertainty after Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he will resign, reports Reuters.

The internationally focussed FTSE 100 index slipped 0.1 per cent by 0930 GMT, while the midcap FTSE 250 dropped 0.7 per cent.Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who recently won parliamentary elections, stands as the top candidate for prime minister, although investors say a change in leadership is unlikely to change conditions a lot."Britain's been going in the wrong direction and I don't really think, unfortunately, that any replacement for Keir Starmer, is going to be much different," said David Morrison, senior market Analyst at Trade Nation.

Rate-sensitive household goods and home-construction stocks fell over 1 per cent and were among top sectoral decliners while the pound eased 0.1 per cent versus the dollar.Former health minister Wes Streeting is also in the leadership race, but one senior figure in the party said they believed Streeting could do a deal with Burnham, giving him a senior role if he stayed out of the contest.
"I rather think that Rachel Reeves will probably be gone fairly soon. If we find out that Wes Streeting isn't going to stand and gives Burnham his full support, then he might get rewarded with something like Chancellor of the Exchequer," Morrison said.Reeves was the Chancellor in the government led by Starmer, whose resignation paves the way for Britain to have its seventh leader in a decade.

The next candidate will be scrutinized over fiscal policy plans at a time when concerns over debt-backed public spending has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Gilt to its to its highest since 2008.

Citizens have been disappointed over Starmer's handling of the economy as public debt and borrowing costs soared in recent years.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also had investors price in no change to interest rates by the Bank of England this year, according to LSEG-compiled data.

Economic and political uncertainty, alongside geopolitical concerns, have weighed on the domestically focused midcap FTSE index, which underperforms the blue-chip FTSE 100 index this year.

In M&A news, easyJet rose 3.1 per cent and was among top movers on the FTSE 250 index after Castlelake disclosed its £4.74 billion ($6.26 billion) takeover bid for the budget carrier. The airline had rejected three proposals from the US investment firm.
Babcock International lost 5.2 per cent after the defence and engineering group reported a 19 per cent drop in annual underlying operating profit.Globally, there was some relief that negotiations to end the US and Iran conflict were continuing. However, investors awaited clarity that shipping would resume through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices fell on Monday on optimism over US-Iran talks, with mediators flagging a “roadmap” to a final agreement, while equities were mixed.

After a meeting planned for Friday was cancelled owing to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the negotiations finally got underway on Sunday in Switzerland with teams led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Traders remain in buoyant mood after news that the two foes had paused their conflict, which had sent energy costs soaring and stoking inflation, sending shivers through the global economy.

There were initial jitters following reports that Iran had called off the talks over US President Donald Trump’s threat to carry out more strikes if Hezbollah kept attacking Israel, but mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the talks took place in “a positive and constructive atmosphere”.

The mood improved as Qatar and Pakistan announced progress in the talks, which aim to address Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of oil and gas pass.

The two mediators said the United States and Iran agreed to set up a “communication line” to avoid incidents in the crucial waterway, and “the High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that “mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War”.

Both main oil contracts fell in afternoon Asian trade, with Brent down more than one percent.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise a key interest rate is expected to have both positive and negative impacts on households and businesses. While interest earned on bank deposits will increase, burdens from borrowing, such as housing loans, will rise. Whereas the elderly are expected to benefit greatly from the interest rate hike, younger people are likely to be adversely affected.

In response to the central bank’s decision, three major banks -- MUFG Bank Ltd, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp and Mizuho Bank Ltd -- announced Tuesday that they would raise interest rates on savings accounts by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4 percent, effective August 3. The rate stood at 0.001 percent in March 2024, when the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, meaning that the new interest rate represents a 400-fold increase.

For MUFG and Sumitomo Mitsui, this will mark the highest level in 34 years, or since August 1992, at a time when the two banks had yet to be formed through mergers of their various predecessors. As for Mizuho, the new interest rate will be the highest level since the bank’s founding in 2002.

According to estimates by the Mizuho Research Institute, the overall household economy will see a net gain of ¥1 trillion per year after balancing the positive and negative effects of the interest rate hike. This will be primarily due to an increase in interest income, which translates into an average annual gain of ¥20,000 per household.

However, the degree of the benefits will vary for each household depending on the size of their deposits and borrowings. Generally speaking, older people with larger financial assets will benefit more from increased interest income, while younger households with large outstanding housing loans will tend to be more negatively impacted.

According to the company that operates mogecheck, a site comparing mortgages, in a case where ¥50 million is borrowed on a 35-year variable-rate mortgage and the variable interest rate rises to 1.25 percent, the monthly payment will increase by ¥5,900 to reach ¥147,043, compared to before the hike. Since 80 percent of mortgage borrowers choose variable-rate loans, many households are expected to be affected.

The total repayment amounts for student loans, education loans and auto loans are also expected to rise. As interest rates are determined based on various factors, such as government bond yields, borrowers may be forced to revise their repayment plans.

As the interest burden of borrowing increases, the interest rate hike will inevitably affect corporate management. Mizuho Research Institute estimates that ordinary profit across all industries, excluding the finance and insurance sectors, will be reduced by 1.0 percent, or about ¥1.1 trillion. Small and medium-sized companies with low profits against interest-bearing debt will tend to be affected. Businesses with capital of less than ¥10 million are projected to see their ordinary profit decline 6.6 percent.

Looking Back on 1995

The year 1995 — the last time the Bank of Japan’s key interest rate was at 1 percent — witnessed a series of major events, such as the Great Hanshin Earthquake and the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway.

On the economic front, the prolonged economic slump following the collapse of the bubble economy brought down a number of financial institutions, as they struggled with nonperforming loans. With the consumer price index stuck at zero percent growth, the nation fell into a long period of deflation.

The BOJ was in the process of cutting interest rates, lowering the official discount rate -- then the policy interest rate -- from 1.75 percent to 1 percent in April, and then to 0.5 percent in September.

Along with the economic slump, successive failures of banks and credit cooperatives in July and August stoked concerns about the financial system.

Meanwhile, the yen was appreciating, at one point strengthening to the ¥79 level to the dollar.

Monetary easing was aimed at simultaneously correcting the strong yen to improve the earnings of exporters, stimulating the economy and disposing of nonperforming loans.

However, progress stalled on the nonperforming loans issue, causing Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and the former Yamaichi Securities to fail in 1997.

As prices remained flat, the government acknowledged in 2001 for the first time since World War II that the Japanese economy was deflationary.

The BOJ introduced its zero-interest-rate policy in 1999 and maintained ultralow rates thereafter.

Haruhiko Kuroda, who became BOJ governor in 2013, pursued aggressive monetary easing, culminating in the adoption of a negative interest rate policy in 2016.

China urged the Group of Seven to abide by market economy principles and international economic and trade rules and stop undermining the global trade order on Thursday, responding to the bloc’s latest joint statement that calls for reducing reliance on China for critical minerals and rare earths.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian made the remarks at a regular press briefing. China’s position on safeguarding the stability and security of critical minerals and the global industrial and supply chains remains unchanged, Lin said. All parties share the responsibility to play a constructive role in this regard, he added.

He noted that China’s efforts to standardize and improve its export control system are consistent with internationally accepted practices and are intended to better safeguard world peace and regional stability and fulfill non-proliferation obligations.

“We urge the G7 to earnestly abide by market economy principles and international economic and trade rules, and stop using the rules of small exclusive circles to disrupt the international economic and trade order,” Lin said.

Creating large banks which can operate across Europe is desirable for sustaining the continent’s financial system, the European Central Bank’s chief economist said Friday.

“Having a banking system that is too localised and, in turn, too intertwined with its domestic sovereign, is not a good recipe,” Philip Lane told a conference organised by French investment bank Natixis in Paris.

“From a macro point of view, it’s very important to have the risk sharing that comes from cross-border banking. That can be in terms of equity ownership, it can be in terms of funding, it can be in terms of common technology,” Lane added.

He was speaking as Italy’s second-largest bank, UniCredit, targets a hostile takeover of German rival Commerzbank, having launched a bid in May which expired Tuesday. The Italians’ longer-term aim is to merge Commerzbank with Germany’s HypoVereinsbank, owned by UniCredit.

The Milan-based bank made a bid valued at 35 billion euros ($40.6 billion) not just to take control of a rival in a fellow EU state but to cement its status as a European heavyweight.

Lane said if banks are unable to achieve mergers, they must seek other ways to reduce costs and risks in a period of rising fixed expenditure, amid the growing need for expensive cybersecurity systems.

Lane said he foresaw a relatively small number of giant banks in Europe and noted the arrival of purely digital banking players to the market, disrupting traditional banking models.

Established players must respond to this process by offering competitive products, embracing technological change along the way, he said.

The United States has started an investigation over “unfair” pharmaceutical pricing policies in Germany, a move that could lead to fresh tariffs.

US President Donald Trump’s administration has launched similar probes into dozens of trading partners over issues including forced labor and industrial overcapacity, leading to proposals of higher levies in some cases.

The US move on Thursday comes after the German government sought to overhaul its statutory health insurance system, including through lowering the prices public insurers pay for medicines, in a bid to rein in public spending.

The probe announced by the US Trade Representative’s office will determine if Germany’s “persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products” is “unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens or restricts US commerce”.

The move -- launched under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act -- came after the USTR pointed to evidence Germany has “unfair pricing” policies and practices.

Reduced revenue associated with such practices also appeared to contribute to reduced investment for research and development, among other issues, it added.

“As a result, the United States pays a disproportionate share of global R&D costs for innovative pharmaceuticals,” the notice said.

“President Trump has made clear that American patients should not be shouldering a disproportionate share of global pharmaceutical research and development,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.

He cited Germany’s plans to fast-track legislation “that would further reduce its spending on innovative pharmaceuticals.”

The US trade envoy’s office will next receive comments and hold a hearing in September as part of the investigation.

Germany’s health ministry confirmed ongoing talks with Washington on the issue.

“I assume the United States will honour the agreement we have in place. Reimbursements for modern, innovative medicines by our health insurance funds is a decision which falls within our national jurisdiction,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters in Brussels on Friday.

Health Minister Nina Warken said earlier this week it would be tough for Germany to pay higher prices. “We have a tense financial situation in our health insurance system,” she said.

Germany’s VCI pharmaceutical industry federation said it took the US move “very seriously.”

“In an already tense trade policy environment, companies need reliability and planning certainty -- not a new source of disruption,” the group said in a statement to AFP.

Trump has rolled out sweeping tariffs since returning to the White House last year, though the US Supreme Court struck down many of them in February.

His administration has since turned to trade probes as officials look to reimpose more lasting duties.

This month, the USTR’s office proposed new tariffs of up to 12.5 percent on dozens of countries under its investigation into forced labor concerns.

Japan plans to set a target of about $2.3 trillion in combined public ​and private investment by 2040 across ‌17 strategic sectors as part of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new growth strategy, the Nikkei reported ​on Friday.

The 370 trillion yen investment ​initiative, to be unveiled as early as next week, will focus on areas such ​as AI, chips and space development, as ​Takaichi seeks to use government spending to spur private-sector investment, the business daily said, without citing a ​source for the information.

A call by Reuters ​to the Prime Minister’s Office on Saturday to seek ‌comment went unanswered outside business hours.

The government is considering creating a multi-year budget framework to ensure stable funding for investments deemed critical to ​economic security, ​some of ⁠which may be financed through bridging bonds.

Bridging bonds are used to ​cover temporary funding needs and are ​issued ⁠with guarantees on specific means to pay for redemption, allowing the heavily indebted government ⁠to ​argue that it is mindful ​of fiscal discipline even as it boosts spending.

The Indian rupee ended largely unchanged against the dollar after a choppy session on Friday, as weakness in regional currencies largely offset the unwinding of long dollar positions, but the currency posted its best week in the last 11 on debt inflows. This was also the fourth weekly gain in the last five weeks.

The rupee climbed to 94.21 early in the session as long dollar positions were unwound, but surrendered gains later as the dollar strengthened and index-rebalancing outflows hit the currency. It ended little changed at 94.32 per dollar.

For the week, the rupee rose 0.83 percent, marking its best performance since week ended April 3.

“The recent RBI measures together with favorable oil prices on account of de-escalation of Middle East concerns kept the local unit in positive territory even after sizeable dollar strength today,” said Dhaval Shah, founder and managing director, De-Risk Forex Consultancy. “This suggests the bias for rupee has changed and we continue with our previous forecast of 93.50.”

The rupee has been on a rising trend after the Reserve Bank of India announced dollar-attracting measures two weeks ago.

“RBI absorbing hedging cost to attract foreign currency deposits and support external borrowing with the concessional FX facility appear most effective in the near term to lend support to the rupee,” said Clifford Lau, hard- and local-currency portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair Investment Management.

Robust foreign inflows into Indian government securities and a slump in oil prices since then have also worked in favour of the local currency, but the one-way move was challenged by a resurgent dollar, an uptick in oil and renewed US rate-hike expectations on Friday.

The Fed’s latest policy meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, revived expectations of further rate increases and drove the dollar index to a one-year high. Brent crude inched up after US Vice President JD Vance withdrew from a planned meeting with Iranian negotiators on Friday to begin discussions on implementing the 14-point agreement

Brent crude ticked higher on Friday, but stayed set for a weekly fall of around 8 percent, after Israel and Hezbollah agreed on a ceasefire in Lebanon but Iran set conditions for using the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were up 66 cents, or 0.53 percent, at $80.38 a barrel by 1:30 p.m. ET, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 94 cents, or 1.23 percent, at $77.54 per barrel. Trading volumes were light due to a US federal holiday.

Gulf producers were preparing to raise exports after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire which began at 4 p.m. local time (1300 GMT) on Friday. At least four tankers carrying crude, oil products and liquefied petroleum gas entered the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, heading for Iraqi Gulf ports, MarineTraffic data showed.

Despite the uptick in activity, however, Iran signalled tighter control over shipping, with state TV reporting that vessels must coordinate transit with the Revolutionary Guards navy. In an undated advisory circulated to the maritime industry in the last 24 hours and seen by Reuters, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said “no vessel is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without a valid passage permit issued by the PGSA”.

Concerns around Iran’s conditions for using the strait helped push oil prices higher on Friday, said Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter. “The market was pricing in a deal and pretty seamless execution, and that doesn’t seem to be what we’re getting thus far,” Johnston said.

In spite of Friday’s gains, Brent was down about 8 percent week-over-week, reflecting a significant easing of supply concerns in the wake of the US-Iran deal to end the war. “Though (oil prices) haven’t got to the point to where they were before the war started, it looks like we’re headed in that direction,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, adding more supply is expected to flow in coming days.

“The backlog of ships can move quicker than some people think and if there’s cooperation between Iran and the US, it can move quite quickly,” Flynn added.

A planned meeting between Iranian and US officials in Switzerland on Friday has been postponed, with arrangements underway for talks in the coming days, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday. The ministry said the meeting was no longer urgent because a memorandum of understanding on ending the war had already been signed digitally between the two sides. Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. The agreement also includes the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil, which would add more supply.

Around 20 percent of global oil and LNG supply transits Hormuz, but recovery in flows and production after the US-Iran deal could take several months. Citi said its base case, with a 60 percent probability, sees sustained normalisation in flows, with oil markets moving into surplus and prices trending lower over the next six to 12 months to around $60 to $65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027.

Commerzbank said oil supply should gradually recover, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel by year-end from $85, while expecting prices to remain above pre-war levels for most of the coming year.

Iraq’s oilfields are ready to resume production and output will gradually return to normal, restoring previous rates, Oil Minister Basim Mohammed said.

On the demand front, world demand will rise to 113.3 million bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its busiest in two months after a deal to halt the US-Iran war, maritime trackers said on Friday.

A total of 25 commercial vessels crossed the newly reopened strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, according to data from tracking firm AXSMarine -- more than three times the average of just over seven a day since early March.

In a sign of traffic picking up in the region, empty trucks queued for up to three kilometres (two miles) outside the UAE port of Korfakkan just south of the strait, as at least four container ships unloaded there, an eyewitness told AFP.

Other ships could be seen on the hazy horizon, apparently waiting their turn to dock and unload, the eyewitness said, requesting anonymity.

The spike came after Iran and the United States agreed this week to re-open the crucial route under an agreement to end the war, but before the postponement of talks between the sides in Switzerland that had been planned for Friday under that deal.

The number of crossings on Thursday may be higher, as some ships turned off or manipulated their AIS transponder signals to avoid detection, AXSMarine said in a news release.

Iranian forces effectively closed off the strait after US and Israeli strikes sparked the war on February 28. Maritime authorities reported dozens of attacks on ships in the area.

Global shipping groups warned this week that plans to resume traffic through the strait were still not clear and it was not thought safe to start exiting the Gulf.

The Pakistani navy published an alert Friday warning that a mine had been sighted in the strait off Oman. “All vessels transiting through the area are advised to navigate with extreme caution,” it said.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority on Friday published new rules for transits during the 60-day period covered by the war agreement.

In a post on X it said all ships seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz should submit a transit request “48 hours in advance”.

It said it would waive payments of “tariffs” and “Iranian insurances” for ships passing during the 60 days.

International Maritime Organization (IMO) chief Arsenio Dominguez said in April that the body was working on a plan to ensure safe transit for ships out of the Gulf. More than 500 commercial vessels and about 11,000 seafarers are still stuck in the Gulf, according to the IMO. It says 20,000 seafarers in the region have been affected by the war overall.

The agreement to stop the war this week was also meant to halt fighting in Lebanon but Israel’s military on Friday announced new strikes there.

A US official later said Israel and Iran-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire.

The closure of the strait during the war drove up global oil prices and choked off shipments of energy and crucial commodities such as fertiliser.

Following the Iran-US agreement announced on June 14, “the first sign of relief came this week with fast falling prices”, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at banking group Swissquote.

“Energy and transport sectors will be the first to feel the relief, before it spills toward the rest of the economy,” she told AFP.

But given the risk of renewed fighting in Lebanon, she added, “questions remain regarding the US ability to end the war”.

China is stepping up scrutiny over exports of indium, leading some buyers to fear the niche metal, sought after for next-generation data centres, may be added to the export control regime that has become one of Beijing's most potent trade weapons.

China produces nearly 70% of the world's indium, a byproduct of zinc refining mostly used in displays and solder but also the raw material for making indium phosphide, used to make high-speed optical chips for AI data centres.

Beijing put indium phosphide on an export control list in February 2025 and the restrictions have become enough of a hurdle for next-generation data centres that the CEO of Nvidia-backed chipmaker Coherent travelled to Beijing with President Donald Trump in May to raise the issue.

While indium metal is not on the export control list, two buyers told Reuters about growing scrutiny over their purchases from Chinese customs. For the first time this year, a European buyer was asked to disclose information about end users, including where they were based.

A major buyer in North America said approvals had gone from same day to several days, which they attributed to more scrutiny of paperwork and described as "tense". This buyer had not been asked for extra information by customs.

China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a request for comment on a public holiday.

All the buyers declined to be named owing to the sensitivity of the topic.

The extra due diligence is not uniform and two other buyers told Reuters they had heard of extra scrutiny but not faced it themselves. So far, Reuters has not identified any shipments that have been blocked.

Nonetheless there is some concern in the small industry that this is a prelude to tighter controls or the end-user disclosures which China, and other countries with export control regimes, use to chart global supply chains and chokepoints.

Indium has been identified as a potential vulnerability for the US, whose Defense Logistics Agency earlier this year released a request for proposals to stockpile up to 403 tonnes of the material over three years.

Another North American buyer said they suspected that the reporting requirements were "a precursor to restrictions or outright bans on exports."

Oil prices rose more than 1 percent Wednesday after US President Donald Trump threatened ‌to resume bombing Iran if it didn’t “behave”, but remained near three-month lows as the International Energy Agency warned of excess supply next year.

Brent crude futures were up 93 cents, or around 1.2 percent, to $79.89 a barrel at ​1308 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate gained 79 cents, or 1 percent, to $76.84. Both ​contracts hit their lowest since early March earlier in the session.
Trump said on Wednesday that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was not final, and that he could ​resume a bombing campaign if he did not like it or if Iran didn’t “behave”.

“(There’s) still a ​bit of uncertainty in terms of the US situation ... so it ... makes sense for oil to bounce back from these levels after staging what has been quite a sharp decline in the last few days,” said Fawad ​Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

IEA SAYS INVENTORIES TO BE RESTOCKED IN NEXT ​FEW MONTHS

In its first look at 2027, the IEA said the oil market will enter a significant supply overhang, ‌with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day and demand rising by just 2 million bpd.

In the near term, the agency said the Iran-U.S. deal should provide an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or build new strategic reserves.

“Markets may be underpricing the depth of ​the supply glut coming ​online,” said Crispus Nyaga, research analyst at Empire FX.

The MoU, not yet public, extends by another 60 days a tenuous ceasefire agreed in April, to allow room for talks ​between the US and Iran toward a permanent truce.

Still, industry officials ​say a full return to pre-war production and refining levels is likely to take weeks, months or even years.

US crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12, market sources said, citing American Petroleum ⁠Institute data.

This ​exceeded expectations for a draw of 4.6 million barrels, ​with official numbers due from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

The dollar held steady against most major peers on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under chair Kevin Warsh, which could see some volatility as investors adjust to a new style of policy making and communication. The euro was flat on the day at $1.1605, while the pound softened a fraction on both the dollar, to $1.3420, and the euro, to 86.5 pence to the common currency, after cooler-than-expected UK inflation data that could give the Bank of England cover to hold off on raising rates this year.

But the big event of the day, the Fed meeting, is still to come, and left investors hesitant to take on large positions. The Fed is widely expected to stand pat at Warsh’s debut meeting. The statement, economic projections and news conference, however, will be scrutinised for any signals of the Fed dropping its easing bias as officials grow more hawkish on inflation risks.

“There have been many central banks meeting this month, but this is the one that’s overshadowing everything,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. “There is a lot of uncertainty over what Warsh might signal. No one is expecting a change in interest rates, but is he going to try and downplay the dot plot? Try and set up a new framework? Try to steer them towards an easing bias?” she said.

The so-called “dot plot” shows policymakers’ expectations for the future path of interest rates. Warsh was appointed by US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly criticised the previous Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for being slow to cut rates. Money market pricing actually reflects around an 80 percent chance of the Fed hiking rates this year.

Before the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the war in the Middle East, economists had thought the Fed would signal some willingness to raise rates to try to limit the extent to which elevated energy costs spill over into broader inflation. Now though, oil is back below $80 a barrel and the Fed may give different signals.

Oil inventories held by OECD member countries fell in May to their lowest level since 1990 as governments drew down stocks to offset the blockage of Gulf crude shipments during the Middle East war, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The drawdown since the start of the conflict has reached 163 million barrels in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development club of wealthy countries, the IEA said in its monthly report.
“Despite the significant reductions in demand for crude oil and refined products, the buffers in the system continue to erode at a record pace,” the agency said.

To ease the burden from soaring oil prices due to Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA organised coordinated stock releases of 400 million barrels to the global market, of which 252 million have been released as of June 12.

“The flow of emergency stocks is expected to decelerate somewhat in June and July,” the agency said, after a deal was announced this week to end the war that began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

But the impact of high prices will weigh heavily on demand through this year, with an expected decline of 1.1 million barrels a day compared to 2025 levels.

“We see growth rebounding to 2 mb/d in 2027, as a normalisation of trade flows, lower oil prices and an improving economic outlook contribute to the recovery,” the IEA said.

Britain’s annual inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8 percent in May as higher petrol prices caused by the US-Iran war were offset by lower food costs, official data showed Wednesday.

The Consumer Prices Index level matched April’s reading, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, while an analysts’ consensus forecast had been for an increase to 3.0 percent.

“While the war in the Middle East pushes prices up globally, we have got the right economic plan and inflation has held steady,” finance minister Rachel Reeves said in response.

Even though the United States and Iran agreed this week to a deal to end the conflict, inflation could still rise in the coming months with energy costs remaining above pre-war levels.

The better-than-expected inflation data for May could meanwhile prove fruitless for the Labour government, which is facing a special vote Thursday expected to set in motion an attempt to oust Keir Starmer as prime minister.

Longtime Starmer critic Andy Burnham is hoping to win an election for a parliament seat in northwest England so that he can run for the Labour leadership, and the premiership.

The inflation data also comes before an interest rate decision by the Bank of England, which is expected to hold borrowing costs steady Thursday after energy prices tumbled in recent days thanks to the US-Iran deal.

QatarEnergy is ready to resume liquefied natural gas production ​at its Ras Laffan LNG plant very quickly ‌and could reach within a month full output of facilities unaffected by Iranian strikes, a person with knowledge of the matter told Reuters ​on Tuesday (16 June).

Two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and ​one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in ⁠the strikes, which knocked out 17% of the country's ​LNG export capacity, and will take years to repair, the ​group's CEO told Reuters in March.

However, production at other facilities, idled because of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil ​and LNG export gateway for the region during the Iran ​war, could be quickly restored, the source said.

"The problem will be how ‌fast ⁠can we bring ships in and how fast we can load them after the strait opens," the person, who declined to be named, told Reuters. "It's more of a shipping ​and logistics problem ​than production."

Despite ⁠a framework agreement between the US and Iran on terms to end their war and reopen ​Hormuz, a little more than a dozen LNG ​tankers ⁠have managed to exit the strait since the war began in late February.

Shippers are awaiting reassurance on safety to cross the ⁠strait, ​including the clearing of mines, which ​could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks.