The United States on Friday announced a major easing of export restrictions on the United Arab Emirates, removing barriers to sales of advanced AI chips and military items to the Gulf ally.

The Commerce Department said it would upgrade the UAE’s status under US export rules, a move that reflects the country’s designation as a major defense partner and its role in supporting American national security objectives, including in the war in Iran.

The department’s bureau of industry and security said it would remove the UAE from two restricted country groups, making it eligible for license-free exports of controlled military items, certain satellites and spacecraft, and dual-use goods used in oil and gas production, desalination and civil nuclear power.

The changes will also lift restrictions on support for the UAE’s drone programs.

The upgraded status “is warranted in light of the ongoing US-UAE military partnership and the UAE’s commitment to preventing the diversion and misuse of sensitive US technology,” the department said.

Separately, the department said it was approving the UAE government and certain companies to receive advanced computing items -- including AI chips and servers -- without export licenses.

This was part of a May 2025 cooperation agreement in which the UAE pledged to make matching investments in AI infrastructure in the United States.

The changes came as US tech giants and chipmakers look to expand their presence in the Gulf, where countries flush with oil and gas wealth have been investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The move drew sharp criticism from US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who accused the Trump administration of rewarding Emirati businesses with close financial ties to the president.

Warren, a senior Democrat on the powerful banking committee, said the arrangement was proceeding “despite reported concerns about the diversion of sensitive technology to China and other national security risks.”

The International Energy Agency said Friday that “a recovery” in global oil demand had started as supplies tentatively start moving through the strategic Strait of Hormuz again and prices ease.

“A recovery in world oil demand is underway, with consumption set to rise from its May nadir,” the IEA’s monthly report said.

The agency had in June predicted a fall in demand of 1.1 million barrels a day (mbd) through 2026 because of the Middle East war, which strangled traffic through the strait. It now expects a one million barrel a day fall.

“Global oil supply rebounded by a sharp 4.1 mbd to 98.8 mbd in June, as a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz underpinned a partial recovery in Gulf production. World output was nevertheless some 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels,” it said.

“Total Gulf oil exports, including volumes bypassing the Strait, surged by 6.5 mbd in June, to 16.1 mbd – a big jump but still well below the 24 mbd average before the war started.”

According to the IEA, world supply improved to 102.6 mbd in June and would continue to get better if there was “a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities”.

“If transit volumes improve, oil supply will expand by 7.5 mbd next year,” the agency added.

The agency said world oil reserves increased for the first time since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 set off the war.

It added that stocks in the richest nations had fallen as their oil imports remained low despite the rise in volumes being transported by sea.

While oil prices fell dramatically in June, fresh fighting between US and Iranian forces this week “clouds the outlook”, the IEA said.

“Renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf this week highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a must for the normalisation in oil markets,” it commented.

The US dollar was steady at around its highest level in roughly a week on Wednesday.

This came after US President Donald Trump said an interim memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to end their conflict was “over”.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s currency jumped after the country’s central bank lifted interest rates.

The US dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six currencies, was little changed on the day at 101.17.

It was last hovering around its highest since July 2, in a somewhat choppy session for the safe-haven currency.

“The USD has reacted, but the market has learnt to take Trump’s comments with a pinch of salt,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

“The remarks may be meant to bring the opposition to the table. Nevertheless, they will raise anxiety levels another notch,” Foley added.

Brent crude was last up 6.24 percent at $78.82 a barrel, extending a rally into a second day. Trump’s comments come after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Wednesday said they attacked US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

This followed a wave of US airstrikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the kiwi dollar was last 0.26 percent higher at $0.5691, having pared earlier gains.

This occurred after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent to curb inflation pressures, as most economists had expected.

The central bank said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” to control inflation.

“A key argument for the hike is a concern that financial conditions would have eased further if the OCR was left unchanged,” Westpac analysts wrote, referring to the official cash rate.

Later in the day, traders will be watching out for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.

The IMF on Wednesday cut its 2026 growth projection for the world economy again, saying an AI boom has not fully offset the fallout from war in the Middle East.

Global economic growth is now estimated at 3.0 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said, down from 3.1 percent in its April forecast. The estimate was made before fresh exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran in recent hours.

It is the second time this year that the fund has lowered its overall growth expectations. The latest estimate marks a cooling from the 2025 growth rate as well.

Global inflation meanwhile is anticipated to accelerate to 4.7 percent this year, a higher level than earlier projected. Still, the overall growth slowdown is modest, as momentum in artificial intelligence -- driven by demand -- partially offsets the effects of the war.

Global economic growth is now estimated at 3.0 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said, down from 3.1 percent in its April forecast

The IMF said it expects global growth to pick up in 2027 to 3.4 percent.

Deniz Igan, division chief at the IMF’s research department, told AFP that its forecasts are “broadly unchanged” cumulatively for the next two years and described the bounceback as “a V-shaped recovery.”

The delayed recovery from war on Iran, longer disruptions and higher prices is part of the reason the world economy will take a bigger hit this year, she added.

The IMF flagged that fallout varies widely.

“Energy exporters outside the conflict zone benefit from favorable terms of trade, whereas economies plugged into the technology-led upturn experience stronger activity even if they are energy importers,” the fund said.

“In contrast, activity weakens for energy importers with limited participation in the technology value chain,” it added.

US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran since February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually blocking off the Strait of Hormuz, while plunging the Middle East into war.

As traffic stalled in the key waterway for energy transit, global oil prices soared -- weighing on economies.

Oil and gas shipments resumed as a temporary US-Iran deal paused hostilities, but temperatures are again rising.

Igan -- speaking before hostilities resumed, sparked by Iranian attacks on ships in the strait -- said she expected the normalization of traffic through the waterway by 2027.

- ‘Glaring differences’ -

Although the world economy has weathered the shock from the war so far better than feared, the IMF warned: “The global picture blurs glaring differences across countries.” Retail gasoline costs jumped by 30 percent in emerging Asia after the onset of war, and only by 15 percent in Latin America.

While the US economy is still set to expand 2.3 percent this year, growth in the Middle East and central Asia was downgraded by 1.2 percentage points to 0.7 percent.

The downgrade is “consistent with a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” the IMF said, but it added that it expects a larger rebound in the future.

The euro area is set to grow 0.9 percent this year, also a downward revision. Growth in France is pegged at 0.6 percent -- 0.3 percentage points lower than earlier expected.

The world’s second biggest economy, China, saw its growth projection adjusted upwards slightly to 4.6 percent.

Yet, the effects of the war have not fully passed through, the IMF said.

The release of strategic reserves has provided some relief amid reduced energy flows, but there could still be weakness ahead.

The IMF also warned that the possibility of a “renewed Middle East conflict looms large and could extend commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chains, raise prices, and weigh on financial conditions.”

Trade fragmentation could accelerate too, risking higher prices.

Nonetheless, there were some bright spots, the IMF said.

There was a “positive surprise” from some economies key to the global technology supply chain, despite their exposure to disruptions from the war.

The top four net exporters of AI-related hardware -- Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia -- saw resilient growth.

Igan added that expectations of higher inflation this year merely mark a pause, “not a break from the disinflation trend.”

Oil ​prices jumped more than 6% today (8 July), hitting a two-week high after US President Donald Trump said ‌ the memorandum of understanding to end the conflict with Iran was "over", renewing fears of disruptions to Middle East oil supplies.

Brent crude futures were up $4.57, or 6.16%, to $78.73 a barrel at 0948 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $4.23, or 6.01%, to $74.67 a barrel. The benchmarks ​are at their highest levels since 22 June.

Both rose about 3% yesterday after the US revoked the general ​licence authorising the sale of Iranian crude.

Trump said today that the memorandum of understanding signed with ⁠Iran to end the conflict was "over", adding he didn't want to engage with Tehran.

The agreement, brokered by Pakistan last month ​to provide a 60-day window for negotiations, came under strain after the US launched fresh strikes on Iran.

"The market is again ​being forced to price the risk that renewed attacks on shipping, or a broader breakdown in US-Iran relations, could slow the normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

The US airstrikes were in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were ​transiting the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command said on yesterday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards then said they targeted US military ​sites in Bahrain and Kuwait early on today.

The attacks renewed concerns about tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about ‌one-fifth of ⁠global energy supply before the war began in late February.

Supply fears resurface

"Trump's assertion that the MOU is over raises the prospect of a re-closing of the Strait as an escalatory cycle begins again," Sauk Kavoniv, head of research at MST Marquee, said.

At least four oil and gas tankers have turned back from attempting to transit the strait, ship-tracking data showed, as renewed ​attacks on vessels heightened safety concerns.

"(The) ​underlying supply challenge has ⁠not disappeared, but the latest escalation has interrupted it," Hansen added.

After the US and Iran signed their truce last month, oil prices tumbled to pre-war levels and traders amassed large short positions in ​oil futures, betting prices would fall further.

Since the start of the conflict, nations have drawn ​down their inventories ⁠to make up for the supply shortfall.

"In my view, a price closer to $80 a barrel is more consistent with current market fundamentals than $70," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

Meanwhile, China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and ⁠allowed a ​private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, trade sources said ​today, as the world's biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war.

The AI boom has helped drive investments in intangible assets such as software, data and research to a record high in 2025, the United Nations’ patent and innovation agency said Wednesday.

These investments, which encompass research and development, software and data, brands, design and organisational know-how, represent a large and growing share of the global economy, the World Intellectual Property Organization said.

Across the 29 economies studied, which account for 57 percent of global GDP, intangible investment “reached an all-time high” of over $10 trillion in 2025, according to WIPO.

The study included the United States, EU nations, Britain, Japan, India as well as other countries. However, China, the world’s second-largest economy, was not among the nations covered.

The record figure was detailed in the World Intangible Investment Highlights 2026, which WIPO co-published with the Rome-headquartered Luiss Business School.

Since 2008, intangible investment has grown by 3.5 percent annually in real terms; way ahead of tangible investments, which saw annual growth of just 0.98 percent over the same period, the study said.

“These figures point to a durable structural shift in the composition of investment, with intangible assets playing a growing role in value creation,” WIPO said.

The United States accounts for the largest share of intangible investment by far, reaching nearly $5 trillion in 2025.

This was around six times the level in second-placed Japan, with Germany third.

Sweden retains its position as the most intangible-intensive economy, reaching 17.4 percent of GDP in 2025, followed by the United States at 15.6 percent and France at 15.2 percent.

Meanwhile India, Japan and the Philippines recorded the fastest growth, said WIPO.

The report said intangible investments proved more resilient than tangible ones in the face of high interest rates, trade tensions and the economic slowdown seen in recent years.

Between 2020 and 2025, they grew by 5.5 percent annually in real terms, compared to 3.2 percent for tangible investments.

The report said artificial intelligence was playing a major role in the transformation.

While it initially drives physical investments in data centres, semiconductors and energy infrastructure, WIPO estimates that its lasting impact stems primarily from investments in software, data, research and development, and corporate reorganisation.

Investment in software and databases recorded the highest aggregate real growth rate across all intangible asset categories between 2013 and 2023, at 7.3 percent annually, ahead of organisational capital (4.9 percent) and brands (4.4 percent).

The report also highlights the economic importance of brands, with investments across the 29 economies reaching $1.4 trillion in 2025.

The US leads global brand investment by a wide margin, exceeding $566 billion in 2025 -- more than four times the figure for Britain, in second place on $137 billion, followed by Japan on $112 billion.

Established in 1967, Geneva-based WIPO helps creators and entrepreneurs protect their intellectual property across borders.

The US trade deficit widened sharply in May to its largest in over a year as imports rose, government data showed Tuesday, with analysts noting that businesses could be gearing up for further tariffs.

The shift came as the world’s biggest economy grappled with fallout from war in the Middle East, while imports of tech goods linked to the country’s data center buildout remained strong.

The overall trade gap surged from the month prior by 42.2 percent to $77.6 billion, according to data from the Commerce Department. This was slightly less than a consensus forecast by Briefing.com.

In May, imports climbed by 3.3 percent to $395.3 billion, while exports dipped by 3.2 percent to $317.7 billion.

In May, imports climbed by 3.3 percent to $395.3 billion, while exports dipped by 3.2 percent to $317.7 billion
While imports of capital goods like computer accessories and semiconductors showed just a modest increase, “They are up 42 percent year-over year, thanks to ongoing demand for AI hardware,” said economist Grace Zwemmer of Oxford Economics.

She added that the latest imports uptick was broad-based and led by consumer goods, with “about half the strength attributed to pharmaceutical preparations.”

“This could be a sign that businesses are beginning to frontload pharmaceutical imports ahead of the 100 percent tariffs that are set to go into effect on July 31, although there are many exemptions embedded in the policy,” Zwemmer noted.

US trade data has been fluctuating widely over the past year as President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on various trading partners, sending businesses scrambling to avoid them.

“Imports convey solid US domestic demand,” said Nationwide financial market economist Oren Klachkin in a note.

But he added that companies’ attempts to get ahead of planned tariff hikes “likely lent a hand.”

Meanwhile, US exports of crude oil and petroleum products advanced after US-Israeli strikes on Iran from late February, which triggered Tehran’s retaliation in virtually blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is a key waterway for energy transit, sending prices soaring at the time.

While crude exports were still up in May, the partial reopening of the strait after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding helped push petroleum exports towards pre-war levels, Zwemmer said.

For now, the temporary deal saw a pause in hostilities while officials seek a longer term solution, and energy costs have cooled.

German industrial production ticked up more than expected in May, official data showed Tuesday, as Europe’s top economy defied the worst following the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Factory production rose 0.9 percent on the month, statistics office Destatis said, beating expectations in a FactSet poll of analysts who had expected a rise of 0.3 percent.

The automotive industry led the way with production volumes up 3.6 percent, Destatis said, while production of industrial machinery also rose 1.3 percent.

“Despite the war in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, industrial production is proving resilient,” ING analyst Carsten Brzeski said.

“Some industries or companies actually seem to have benefited from the war in the Middle East, as Asian competitors were hit harder by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Strait of Hormuz was at the centre of tensions during the Middle East war, when Iran blockaded the waterway and a number of commercial vessels came under attack, sending global energy prices sharply higher.

The United States responded with its own naval blockade and later launched retaliatory strikes against Iran after accusing Tehran of targeting commercial shipping.

Maritime traffic resumed after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding last month aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the strategic route.

A less volatile comparison by Destatis over the past three months showed production rising just 0.1 percent, and production in May was flat versus the same month last year.

Germany’s economy has barely grown since a burst of pent-up pandemic demand at the end of 2022, hit by high energy prices and increasingly fierce Chinese competition in key export markets.

Overall production volumes in May were eight percent below the monthly average for 2021, according to Destatis data.

The Indian rupee eked out gains on Tuesday, tracking an uptick in most Asian peers even as dollar demand from merchant payments and maturing non-deliverable forward contracts limited room for the currency to gain.

The rupee traded at 95.28 against the dollar as of 11:25 am IST, up 0.1 percent from its previous close.

The RBI’s daily reference rate, called the daily fix, was last quoted at a premium of around 0.45/0.55 paisa, signalling elevated dollar demand. The fix usually attracts concentrated dollar buying or selling related to maturing contracts.

“Despite the central bank’s interventions and measures to boost flows, (the) rupee is struggling to cling to gains, which points to the scale of underlying USD demand,” a trader at a foreign bank said.

Analysts and traders are keeping a close eye on the scale of inflows mustered by recent policy measures such as removing tax on foreign investment in debt and offering foreign currency deposits with high interest rates. Goldman Sachs anticipates about $60 billion of inflows over the remainder of 2026.

In the near-term though, FX advisory firm Mecklai says that the dollar-rupee pair is trading with a “neutral to bullish” bias and is expected to encounter resistance in the 95.50-95.80 zone, while support is pegged in the 94.0-93.90 band.

Elsewhere, Asian currencies were mostly trading firmer, while regional stocks fell. Indian equities bucked the trend with the Nifty 50 index up 0.4 percent.

Investors are now looking ahead to the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting, due Wednesday. Traders are currently pricing in about 30 bps of rate hikes in the rest of 2026.

Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its crude oil pipeline to the western Red Sea coast, five sources close to the matter said, enabling the kingdom and possibly neighbours to transport more oil without crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

The East-West pipeline was built in the early 1980s and has become crucial since the start of the Iran war in February and the resulting halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

It can transport up to 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. About 2 million bpd feed refineries on the west coast and roughly 5 million bpd are for export, the CEO of state-backed oil company Aramco said in May.

The kingdom is in preliminary talks with some of its neighbours about the potential expansion of the pipeline’s capacity by up to 2 million bpd, the sources said.

It was unclear if Aramco’s planned capacity increase would involve upgrades to existing infrastructure or construction of a new pipeline. One of the sources said the increase would include a smaller second pipe for oil products. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar all lack routes that can bypass Hormuz while Iraq’s pipeline to Turkey, dogged by disputes and repeated shutdowns, runs well below capacity.

“We are in discussions with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and in the emirates to look at how to expand the pipeline system that they have to accommodate Kuwaiti barrels,” Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum last month.

The expansion could be for 1 million to 2 million bpd, two of the sources said, with refined products also under consideration. It would take years, cost billions of dollars and require changes to Saudi crude’s pricing mechanism, another source said.

Iran’s blockade of the strait forced Gulf producers to shut in as much as 12 million bpd, sending prices surging. Flows have resumed partially after a preliminary US-Iran deal last month, but they remain below pre-war levels.

Iraqi output collapsed from 4.3 million bpd to less than 1.5 million bpd in May, Kuwait declared force majeure in March and Bahrain’s Sitra refinery was struck by Iranian missiles several times.

“The recent talks about new pipeline corridors involving Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar reflect a broader strategic reality. The conflict has focused minds regionally on the perils of relying solely on Hormuz,” said Zaid Belbagi, managing partner at London-based Hardcastle Advisory.

Aramco declined to comment while the Saudi and Bahraini government communications offices, the Iraqi oil ministry and QatarEnergy did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Qatar, which mainly exports LNG, faces greater technical hurdles and is considering several potential alternatives, including via Saudi Arabia, three sources said.

The UAE, the only other Gulf state with meaningful Hormuz-bypass capacity, has completed half of a new West-East pipeline that will double crude capacity to Fujairah when it becomes operational next year. Its existing Abu Dhabi pipeline carries up to 1.8 million bpd. An expansion by Saudi Arabia “suggests that after the war, the next phase of the Saudi-UAE rivalry could be a race to the top on oil production, and therefore a race to the bottom on prices,” one industry source said.

Oil prices fell by more than 1 percent on Monday after Opec+ agreed to further increase its output targets from August while exports from key producers via the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, potentially adding to global supplies.

Brent crude futures fell $1.02, or 1.41 percent, to $71.10 a barrel at 0756 GMT after settling 0.45 percent higher on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.89 a barrel, down 80 cents, or 1.16 percent. There was no settlement for WTI on Friday as US markets were closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday.

Both contracts were little changed last week after mostly falling over the past few weeks, as investors kept a close eye on talks between the US and Iran over the fate of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while keeping tabs on the recovery in Gulf oil exports.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia agreed on Sunday to further increase output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases for June and July.

However, the increase has remained largely on paper because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for key Opec producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, capping their output.

“They are selling into a falling market, offering little hope of an imminent price recovery,” PVM analysts said in a note. “However, lower oil prices will undoubtedly stimulate demand further down the line.”

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volume remained 40 percent below pre-war levels, data showed.

“We now expect global oil demand to contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reflecting a sharper-than-expected downturn in Q2, when year-on-year declines could reach 4 million bpd based on preliminary data,” ANZ said.

“However, we expect demand losses to moderate in the second half of the year as supply improves and some deferred consumption returns,” the bank added.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has sold about 16 million barrels of Emirati crude at wider discounts in a fifth spot tender issued since June, trade sources said, underscoring a surge in spot supply.

In addition, oil shipments from Russia’s western ports hit a record high in June and are expected to maintain that level in July as its refineries have been damaged in drone attacks by Ukraine that have forced Moscow to boost crude exports, industry sources said.

Hit by the biggest energy supply shock in decades during the Middle East war, import-dependent India is expanding domestic crude exploration, its oil minister says.

India, the world’s third-largest importer of oil and the second-largest buyer of liquefied petroleum gas, faced major disruptions due to restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict between the United States and Iran.

With a temporary US-Iran deal in place to pause hostilities, oil and gas shipments are flowing through the Gulf waterway again, and restrictions and price hikes in India are being rolled back.

But Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said the energy crunch provided fresh impetus for India’s expansion of domestic supplies.

“We are currently in the process... to bid out about 250,000 square kilometres (96,500 square miles) of unexplored area,” Puri told AFP.

India is a modest producer in global terms.

Domestic crude production in 2025–2026 was 25.98 million metric tonnes, according to the oil ministry.

That meets just 10 percent of India’s crude needs, equivalent to roughly 522,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- a figure well below its production peak of just more than 900,000 bpd in 2011.

India survived the energy crunch by expanding its crude suppliers from 27 to 41 countries, including Iran, Venezuela, greater purchases from Russia and several African nations.

New Delhi has previously been criticised by both the United States and Europe for its purchase of Russian oil, with critics arguing that it bankrolled Moscow’s war against Kyiv.

But Puri said India had a “pragmatic approach” that put its energy needs above “ideological considerations”.

The country’s domestic crude production is concentrated in the west -- in its Mumbai offshore fields, Rajasthan and Gujarat -- as well as the northeastern state of Assam.

But Puri has hailed what he calls an “ocean of energy opportunities” off India’s Andaman and Nicobar archipelago, an 800-kilometre-long (500-mile) chain of environmentally sensitive islands in the seas bordering Thailand and Indonesia.

The vast Andaman Basin is geologically similar to hydrocarbon-bearing basins in Southeast Asia.

Puri posted a video on social media in June of a gas flare at an exploratory well drilled in the Andaman Sea by state-owned Oil India.

“Large number of deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration wells are planned in our offshore basins to fully exploit our hydrocarbon reserves,” Puri said when he released the video.

New Delhi is working with “deepwater exploration experts” including Petrobras, TotalEnergies, BP, Shell and ExxonMobil, he said.

In the same Andaman Sea, India is readying a $9 billion Great Nicobar Island Project to build a megaport, airport and city, creating a strategic base on what is, for now, a far-flung island covered in pristine forests and home to one of Earth’s most isolated peoples.

The push pre-dates the Middle East war.

Hindu-nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the “Samudra Manthan” mission during a speech marking Independence Day in August 2025.

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The name refers to a central event in Hindu mythology meaning the “churning of the ocean”.

“We want to work in a mission mode towards finding oil reserves, gas reserves under the sea and hence India is going to start the National Deep Water Exploration Mission,” Modi said at the time.

But India’s bid to reduce dependence faces challenges.

Domestic demand in the world’s most populous nation of 1.4 billion people is growing rapidly -- even as the government vows to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070.

India is also ramping up investments in renewables, nuclear energy and blending petrol with ethanol.

“India’s energy consumption today is growing at three times the pace compared to rest of the world,” Puri said.

“It has jumped from five million barrels per day in 2021 to about 5.6 million barrels today, and would soon touch six million barrels per day, on the back of the robust economic and per capita income growth.”

Puri said he was “exceptionally bullish” for the future.

“I am happy with the knowledge that our E+P (exploration & production) is going up and, believe me, it’s going to rise very fast,” Puri said.

He noted it was “a very capital intensive and time-consuming” process, but said he had high hopes.

“We are putting fiscal resources into oil and gas exploration in a very big way -- with a $10 billion programme,” he added.

“With it, we are going into one million kilometres of unexplored area.”

OPEC+ is set to agree on Sunday another increase ‌in output targets from August, sources with knowledge of the matter said, adding to global supply amid falling oil prices due to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports.

The oil-producing group has agreed in principle to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day ​from August, on top of similar increases for June and July, two sources with knowledge of OPEC+ thinking ​said ahead of the group's online meeting later on Sunday.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which ⁠groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April through July by almost 800,000 barrels ​per day.

PRODUCTION BEGINS TO RECOVER

Yet the increase has remained largely on paper because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which closed the ​Strait of Hormuz for passage of tankers from some of the most important OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.

OPEC+ output fell to 33.13 million bpd in May, according to OPEC data, from 42.77 million bpd in February. It began to recover in June thanks to ​US efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ nations to export more oil, but is still below pre-war levels.

Despite persisting ​supply disruptions, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, pressured by lower Chinese imports, higher exports from non-Middle East producers, and a record ‌global strategic ⁠stock release coordinated by the International Energy Agency.

The memorandum of understanding to end the war has also helped convince traders that supply would ultimately return to normal levels.

IRAQ PRESSING FOR HIGHER QUOTAS

Brent crude prices traded near $72 per barrel on Friday, down from recent peaks of more than $120 per barrel, and back to levels traded just before the US and Israel attacked Iran ​on February 28.

Besides agreeing production ​targets, OPEC+ is also facing ⁠other challenges after the United Arab Emirates left the group and Iraq signaled it wants higher quotas.

The seven producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — are boosting output ​as part of the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed in ​2023, when the ⁠group still included the UAE.

The UAE quit the alliance in late April because it wanted to align its capacity more closely with its production, free of production restraints imposed by the group.

From August, the seven have about 379,000 bpd of the original cut ⁠to return ​to the market, taking into account the UAE exit from 1 May, ​according to Reuters calculations.

That would mean that the group would unwind the remainder of the cut by the end of September if they continue increases ​at the same pace.

Vietnam’s economy expanded at a forecast-busting 8.4 percent in the second quarter, according to official data Friday, as it overcame import disruptions and higher fuel costs stemming from the Iran war.

The country has long been a success story among Asian economies, and its communist government is targeting double-digit expansion over the next five years.
The April-June on-year growth -- released by the General Statistics Office -- was far better than the 7.0 percent estimated in a survey by Bloomberg and an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 7.9 percent.

The economy expanded eight percent last year, making it one of the best performers in the world despite being hit with tariffs from its largest export market, the United States.

Growth for the first half of 2026 came in at 8.2 percent thanks to a strong performance in its manufacturing and construction sectors.

Standre Bezuidenhout, at law firm DFDL, said the country “has been curiously effective at turning geopolitical and supply-chain shifts into investment opportunities”.

Vietnam was “attracting manufacturing, deepening trade integration, and building a reputation as a reliable capital destination”, he said.

The country’s “ability to outperform expectations at a time when many economies are revising growth projections downward” suggests it is “increasingly becoming a beneficiary of global uncertainty, rather than a victim of it”, he added.

Exports in January-June jumped 21 percent to hit $266.52 billion, while foreign investment for the same period jumped 61 percent to $34.65 billion.

The World Bank upgraded Vietnam to an upper-middle-income country this week, citing strong sustained growth.

Trade in goods between the European Union and the US reached a record €875 billion ($1.00 trillion) last year despite tariffs, but the figures mask significant economic damage, notably to Germany’s auto sector, a study published on Friday found.

The research by the German Economic Institute, or IW, found a 7.7 percent rise in EU exports to the US to €580 billion, while US imports into the EU climbed 2.2 percent to €295 billion, pushing the EU’s trade surplus to nearly €285 billion.

The report attributed some of the increase to front-loading of exports ahead of tariffs that took effect in April and said European manufacturing had suffered.

“This first impression is misleading,” said IW economist Samina Sultan. EU car and parts exports to the US fell 20.4 percent in 2025, with Germany, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of EU auto exports to the United States, posting an 18.9 percent drop.

Ireland bucked the trend with a 52.7 percent surge in exports, driven by tariff-exempt pharmaceutical and chemical products. Most EU member states recorded a decline in their goods exports to the US. Apart from Ireland only the Czech Republic (+5.1 percent), Italy (+7.2 percent), Denmark (+10.6 percent) and Finland (+10.8 percent) reported growth.

TRANSATLANTIC SERVICES ALSO HIT A RECORD

Transatlantic services trade also hit a record €865 billion, though the EU ran a €178 billion deficit in that category. “The transatlantic trade relationship is therefore much more balanced, when considering both goods and service trade,” the study said, contrasting the EU deficit in services and the surplus in goods.

Intellectual property fees - covering software licences, patents and trademarks - accounted for more than 40 percent of EU service imports from the US, rising 13.7 percent. Although the services sector has so far avoided the impact of US tariffs, the trade conflict has had a negative effect.

EU imports of travel services from the US fell by around 8 percent. “This decline is likely attributable to the reduced number of European tourists in the US last year,” said co-author Galina Kolev-Schaefer.

The study said the Turnberry trade deal between the EU and the US asymmetrically benefited the US, but still it was a workable solution that should be honoured by both sides. “New tariff threats would cause new uncertainty that only hampers business activities on both sides of the Atlantic,” the IW said.

Oil prices were little changed for the week as traders held on to hopes for a successful outcome from attempts to secure peace between the US and Iran.

Brent futures were up 14 cents, or 0.19 percent, at $71.94 a barrel by 2:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), ending the week just 5 cents lower than last Friday’s close. West Texas Intermediate was up 9 cents, or 0.13 percent, at $68.78 a barrel.

Trading was light as US markets were closed ahead of the US Independence Day holiday on Saturday. On Thursday, the two oil benchmarks had hit their lowest levels since before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February.

Investor hopes for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are being buoyed by peace talks between the US and Iran, Commerzbank analysts said.

Gold rose on Friday and was set for a weekly gain after four straight weeks of declines, as weak US jobs data dampened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

Spot gold was up 1.3 percent at $4,174.21 per ounce at 1241 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 23. Bullion held above its 21-day moving average and is up over 2 percent for the week so far.

US gold futures for August delivery gained 1.5 percent to $4,186.80/oz. Data on Thursday showed that US nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 last month, below the 110,000 expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Gold’s rally was driven by a sharp slowdown in US hiring last month, said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit.

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day as the US military helped to keep oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, data showed, though exports remained 40 percent below pre-war levels.

The United Arab Emirates led the recovery, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, enabling producers to raise output and lower oil prices to pre-conflict levels.

Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd, Kpler data shows. Vortexa, another cargo analytics company, estimated June flows at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May but still way short of the 16.5 million bpd a year earlier. Since the June 17 agreement between the US and Iran to halt the conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the backlog of crude stranded in the Gulf cleared more quickly, leaving about 23 million barrels still to transit the waterway, said Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball. Floating storage in the strait had peaked at 96 million barrels in late April, he added.

UAE exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG data showed, more than 1 million bpd above May levels. Ship broker BRS said 98 tankers crossed the strait between June 22 and June 28, about 14 a day and the highest since the conflict began. The traffic included 47 laden outbound tankers and 41 ballast vessels entering the Gulf, indicating ship owners are increasingly willing to send vessels into the region.

Saudi crude exports rose by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd in June, according to Kpler. Exports averaged about 6.3 million bpd last week, close to January levels, as Riyadh boosted loadings from Ras Tanura. During the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted some exports through pipelines bypassing Hormuz, an option largely unavailable to Iraq and Kuwait. ADNOC also used a tanker shuttle service to help to sustain exports.

Exports from Iraq and Kuwait recovered to about 800,000 bpd each, Vortexa data showed. Kuwait raised output sharply in June to 1.65 million bpd, a source told Reuters. Iran raised exports by more than 70 percent in June to 640,000 bpd as the US blockade eased, Vortexa said.

The World Bank has upgraded Sri Lanka's status to an upper-middle income economy due to its expansion in the economy supported by a broad-based recovery across industries and growth in tourism and financial services, reports The Hindu.

Sri Lanka was earlier upgraded to the upper-middle income in 2019 but lost the status within a year, and then experienced an economic crisis.

According to the World Bank's latest income classification update released on Wednesday (1 July), the present status of Sri Lanka came three years after the island nation faced a severe economic crisis that pushed the country to the brink of collapse.

In its report, describing the country as "a story of recovery", the World Bank said, "Just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022, real GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven by a rebound across industries and growth in financial and tourism services."

"The reclassification is a marker of resilience, though the country only narrowly crossed the threshold," it added.

The recovery is attributed to revival in tourism, stronger worker remittances, improving external sector performance and a return to economic growth following two years of contraction.

The reclassification indicates the progress made since then under a far-reaching economic stabilisation effort backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), alongside fiscal consolidation, monetary reforms and external debt restructuring.

Earlier, Sri Lanka faced the Easter Sunday attacks in 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent balance-of-payments crisis which culminated in the country's sovereign default in 2022, pushing the economy into its deepest downturn in decades.

The World Bank has four country income classifications: high, upper middle, lower middle, and low based on gross national income per capita estimates from the previous calendar year. The milestone serves as a symbolic marker of the nation's economic rebound following its recent financial crisis.

This year's edition covered 218 countries, and the results will serve as a global reference until the end of June 2027.

Sri Lanka first entered the upper-middle-income category in 2019 before falling back to lower-middle-income status as economic growth slowed and income levels deteriorated amid mounting domestic and external pressures.

The World Bank on Monday extended its climate change policy framework indefinitely, but dropped its targets for the percentage of financing that must have climate-related impacts, according to a statement.

“We will complete our shift from inputs to outcomes to maximize development impact,” said a World Bank Group statement.
“We will retire the 45-percent climate co-benefits target and the 35-percent target in the (Climate Change Action Plan),” it said.

The United States, the World Bank’s largest shareholder, has abruptly changed policy on climate change under President Donald Trump, who has called it a “hoax” and ramped up spending on fossil fuels.

In April, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for the Bank to drop its climate finance targets, saying it “breeds inefficiency, distorts economic decision making, and moves the Bank away from its core mission.”

The World Bank statement said that further work on climate change outcomes would be driven by demand from client countries.

The Bank’s yearly climate financing targets under its Climate Change Action Plans (CCAPs) have largely been reached since work on the area began in 2016.

In 2025, 48 percent of the World Bank Group’s financing had “climate co-benefits,” amounting to roughly $50.8 billion, according to official data.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that climate change is indisputably attributable to human activity, and in particular to the burning of fossil fuels (gas, oil, coal), especially since the end of the 19th century.

Under Trump, however, there has been a widespread official rejection of climate change as a manmade phenomenon, with the administration embracing high-polluting fossil fuels and shelving renewable energy projects.

Since taking office for his second term, Trump has also exerted pressure on global institutions and other countries to lessen their focus on climate change.

One of the main causes of global warming is the enhanced greenhouse effect, caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) that persist in the atmosphere.

The World Bank will continue to report on net greenhouse gas emissions and on the percentage of its projects that have a climate-change impact, the statement said. The World Bank’s work is primarily focused on developing countries, which are least responsible for global warming.

Climate-financing for these countries include loans for renewable energy projects, technical advice on dealing with impacts of climate change and projects that build resilience in areas prone to natural disasters.